Friday, December 7, 2012

20121207 0945 Global Commodities Related News.

2012 Expected to be Warmest Year on Record for U.S. (Bloomberg)
This year will probably overtake 1998 to become the warmest year on record in the U.S., the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said in its monthly climate report.
The first 11 months of 2012 were the warmest start to any year in the contiguous 48 states since the U.S. began keeping records in 1895, NOAA’s Climatic Data Center reported today. The average national temperature for the period was 57.1 degrees Fahrenheit (13.9 Celsius), 1 degree above the old mark set in 1934 and 3.3 degrees above the average for the 20th century, the agency said.
For all of 1998, the average temperature was 54.3 degrees.
“It appears virtually certain that 2012 will surpass the current record as the warmest year for the nation,” the Asheville, North Carolina-based center said. December temperatures would have to be lower by 1 degree than the coldest average for the month on record, in 1983, for the year not to set a new mark.
The U.S. autumn, which for meteorologists was from September through November, was the 21st warmest on record. The period was drier than normal for much of the central U.S. and Southeast, the agency said.
Only eight of the lower 48 states, along the West Coast and across the north from Washington through Minnesota, had average or above-normal rainfall during November.

DTN Closing Grain Comments 12/06 14:23 Grains Mostly Higher On Late Rally (CME)
A strong closing rally in the soybean market pulled wheat contracts higher. Corn struggled throughout the session, but did close well off session lows on spillover support from beans.

Wheat Futures Rise as Dry Spell Erodes Crop Prospects (Bloomberg)
Wheat prices gained for a second straight day on speculation that dry weather may curb production in the U.S., the world’s biggest exporter. Rainfall and snow will miss winter-wheat areas in the Great Plains, forecaster Commodity Weather Group said in a report today. Little or no rain has fallen during the past 30 days in parts of Oklahoma, Texas and Kansas, the biggest U.S. grower of winter wheat, National Weather Service data show. “They’re dry as far as the eye can see,” Tomm Pfitzenmaier, a partner at Summit Commodity Brokerage in Des Moines, Iowa, said in a telephone interview. “That by itself is going to offer some underlying support for wheat.” On the Chicago Board of Trade, wheat futures for March delivery gained 0.2 percent to settle at $8.62 a bushel at 2 p.m. For the year, prices still are up 32 percent after the worst U.S. drought in 56 years. Wheat is the fourth-largest U.S. crop, valued at $14.4 billion in 2011, behind corn, soybeans and hay, government data show.

Corn Market Recap for 12/6/2012 (CME)
March Corn finished down 6 1/4 at 751 1/2, 7 1/2 off the high and 3 1/2 up from the low. May Corn closed down 5 1/2 at 753. This was 4 up from the low and 6 3/4 off the high.
March corn ended the day with modest losses but closed off the session lows. The weekly export sales report was extremely disappointing at only 51,600 tonnes for the current marketing year and -4,200 for the next marketing year for a total of 47,400 tonnes. This was well below market expectations and against 236,100 tonnes last week. As of November 29th, cumulative sales stand at 42% of the USDA forecast for the current marketing year vs. the 5 year average of 50.5%. Sales of 431,000 tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast which increased from 421,300 last week. The US remains a stiff premium to South America corn at the moment which is hampering any progress in export sales. Support in the market continues to come from a dry weather outlook in the western plains and a very wet forecast for Argentina. Some analysts expect Argentina's corn production estimate to be cut from 28 million tonnes next week.
January Rice finished down 0.245 at 15.31, 0.16 off the high and equal to the low.

Wheat Market Recap Report (CME)
March Wheat finished up 2 at 862, 2 1/4 off the high and 9 up from the low. May Wheat closed up 2 1/2 at 871. This was 8 3/4 up from the low and 1 1/2 off the high.
March Chicago and KC wheat traded slightly higher into the closing bell. This morning's export sales report was considered neutral to market direction but wheat sold off early on after terrible corn sales were reported. The market gained traction near the close as soybeans rallied. Net weekly export sales came in at 353,100 tonnes and as of November 29th, cumulative wheat sales stand at 55% of the USDA forecast vs. a 5 year average of 69%. Sales of 511,000 tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast. Kansas City and Minneapolis wheat saw support after it was reported that Japan purchased 196,383 tonnes from the US and Canada. The US business was a mixture of western white, northern spring, and hard red winter wheat. Asian business has been the only real bright spot for the demand side of the US wheat balance sheet. Strength was also found on really no significant moisture for the western plains over the next couple of week.
March Oats closed up 1 at 398. This was 4 1/4 up from the low and 1 3/4 off the high.

Recap Energy Market Report (CME)
January crude oil prices traded sharply lower during the US trading session and back below the $86.00 level. Some traders pointed to slowing economic growth concerns out of Europe and strength in the US dollar as forces weighing on the market. There also seemed to be a level of uncertainty in the market regarding the US debt negotiations, as well as tomorrow's Non-Farm Payroll report. January RBOB prices extended yesterday's decline and fell to its lowest level since November 9th. Meanwhile, January natural gas prices established a higher high on the session in response to EIA inventory data that showed a larger than expected draw last week of 73 bcf. Total storage stands at 3,804 bcf, or 4.6% above the 5 year average. Over the last four weeks natural gas storage has declined 125 bcf.

Oil Trades Near Three-Week Low as ECB Cuts Europe Growth Outlook (Bloomberg)
Oil traded near the lowest level in three weeks in New York after the European Central Bank cut its forecast for euro-area economic growth and U.S. lawmakers struggled to reach agreement on a budget plan. Futures were little changed after sliding 1.8 percent yesterday, the biggest decline in more than two weeks. The euro area will probably contract 0.5 percent this year, worse than the September forecast of 0.4 percent, ECB President Mario Draghi said. U.S. President Barack Obama warned lawmakers that the economy will suffer unless there’s an agreement on a way to avert more than $600 billion in automatic spending cuts and tax increases known as the fiscal cliff. Oil is poised for its first weekly decline in more than a month. Crude for January delivery was at $86.36 a barrel, up 10 cents, in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 10:58 a.m. Sydney time.
The contract slid $1.62 yesterday to $86.26, the lowest close since Nov. 15. Prices are down 2.9 percent this week and 13 percent this year. Brent for January settlement fell $1.78 to $107.03 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange yesterday. The European benchmark contract closed at a premium of $20.77 to West Texas Intermediate, the narrowest gap since Oct. 19. The euro area won’t start to shake off its slump until the second half of 2013, Draghi said at a press conference yesterday in Frankfurt after policy makers left the benchmark rate at a record low of 0.75 percent. The European Union accounted for 16 percent of the world’s oil consumption last year and the U.S. for 21 percent, according to BP Plc (BP/)’s Statistical Review of World Energy.

Iran Oil Export Delays Seen Worsening as Sanctions Hinder Trade (Bloomberg)
Iranian oil tankers are contending with longer delays in shipments and some are idled amid increasing pressure on buyers to curb purchases from what was once OPEC’s second-biggest producer. NITC, the Tehran-based tanker owner, has 42 crude oil carriers and 13 were delayed in transit since Oct. 21, according to data compiled by Richard Hurley, a senior maritime consultant at IHS Fairplay in London who has tracked vessel movements for two decades. Four NITC ships with cargoes are idling while they await orders and four others have switched off their signals and are presumed to be anchored, the data show. Iran is reliant on NITC ships because EU sanctions imposed in July barred about 95 percent of the global tanker fleet from carrying the nation’s crude. NITC has renamed vessels, switched their flag states and signaled inaccurate information about where they are registered, according to the data from IHS, which maintains the United Nations’ shipping database.
“Iran is finding it harder to place cargoes,” Hurley wrote in an e-mail. “China, while still a major purchaser, seems unwilling to take all the cargoes which are being sent to her and has been letting some ships wait at anchor for several weeks. India, while still a purchaser, is not taking much.” Two phone calls and e-mails over two days to Habib-ullah Seyedan, NITC’s commercial director, weren’t answered.

Silver Market Recap Report (CME)
March silver almost forged a quasi double bottom low on the charts. The bull camp will claim the trade rejected the prior session's low, while the bear camp might claim today's low was close enough to suggest that support under the Wednesday closing level is questionable. Silver might have been undermined by weakness in the Euro and perhaps silver was put off balance by weakness in copper and energy prices. The bull camp might be somewhat disappointed that a positive sweep of US scheduled data had only a marginal capacity to support silver prices today.

Gold Market Recap Report (CME)
The gold market saw initial weakness before catching some lift off favorable US equity market action and somewhat better than expected US scheduled data. The gold bulls apparently discounted potentially undermining action in the currency markets and the gold trade also generally played down concerns that the two parties in Washington remained far apart on the fiscal cliff dealings. Gold was temporarily undermined in the wake of the ECB news but seeing US stocks spend a lot of time in positive ground and seeing silver and platinum track higher, probably served to embolden the bull camp in gold today.

No comments: