Friday, July 22, 2011

20110722 1817 FCPO EOD Daily Chart Study.

FCPO closed : 3140, changed : +10 points, volume : lower.
Bollinger band reading : side way range bound little upside biased.
MACD Histrogram : rising, buyer in control.
Support : 3100, 3070, 3050, 3020 level.
Resistance : 3150, 3200, 3250, 3270 level.
Comment :
FCPO closed recorded small gain with lower volume changed hand while soy oil overnight closed lower and currently rebounding higher.
Firmer crude oil price provide some support to crude palm oil futures to trade little higher despite news on lower export tax to 15% for the month of August by Indonesia official. On the other hand news from China reported that edible oil makers are applying for about 5% price increase to the National Development and Reform Commission.
Daily chart formed a small up doji bar candle closed below upper Bollinger band level after market opened and tested little lower, edge up higher tested resistance level and retreated little lower to closed off the high of the day.
Technical study suggesting FCPO is likely to trade side way range bound little upside biased for the near term possibly testing higher resistance level.
When to buy : buy at support or weakness with quick cut loss and profit target.
When to sell : sell at resistant or strength with quick cut loss and profit target.

20110722 1751 Palm Oil Related News.

SINGAPORE (Dow Jones)--Crude palm oil futures on Malaysia''s derivatives exchange will likely trade between MYR2,900 and MYR3,100 a metric ton for the rest of the year, as supply and demand factors to more or less counterbalance one another, an executive at Thailand''s top palm oil producer said Friday. CPO''s wide discount of about $100 a metric ton to rival soyoil will likely lure more price-sensitive buyers, helping to draw down stocks in producing countries and preventing a precipitous price slide, Univanich Palm Oil PCL (UVAN.TH) Managing Director John Clendon said, adding that strong Indian demand ahead of the Diwali festive season as well as increased biodiesel demand in Europe will also boost exports.

20110722 1747 FKLI EOD Daily Chart Study.


FKLI closed : 1567.5 changed : +4.5 points, volume : lower.
Bollinger band reading : side way range bound.
MACD Histrogram : turned upward, seller reducing exposure.
Support : 1565, 1550, 1540, 1530 level.
Resistance : 1570, 1580, 1590, 1600 level.
Comment :
FKLI closed recorded gain with dying volume traded doing about 2.5 points premium compare to cash market that closed fraction lower due to poor TNB counter performance while Asia markets closed higher and European markets currently also trading in positive zone with overnight U.S. market closed recorded substantial gains.
More better corporate earnings, easing debt crisis as European Union leaders announced a new aid package for Greece and positive progress in effort by U.S. lawmaker solving budget deficit and debt ceiling issue restores investor's confident to some extend.
FKLI daily chart formed yet another down doji bar candle with lower shadow closed between lower and middle Bollinger band level after market opened higher and traded range bound in positive territory within 5 points range market to closed near opening price.
Technical reading suggesting a side way range bound market development possibly testing higher resistance level near middle Bollinger band. Further positive news of debt issue or stimulus measure from U.S. will reinforce regional markets to move higher.
When to buy : buy at support or weakness with quick cut loss and profit target.
When to sell : sell at resistant or strength with quick cut loss and profit target.

20110722 1602 Global Market & Commodities Related News.

Greek deal lifts euro, stocks; outlook wary
HONG KONG, July 22 (Reuters) - Asian stocks rose and the euro climbed to a two-week high on Friday after European leaders agreed on a package to rescue debt-stricken Greece and gains will be sustained if U.S. policymakers also manage to cobble together a last minute deal.
Euro-zone sensitive plays like HSBC , which makes up a chunky 15 percent of Hong Kong's Hang Seng index, rose nearly 3 percent, helping the index gain 1.7 percent.

Corn rises after losses, wheat steady on supply pressure
SINGAPORE, July 22 (Reuters) - Chicago corn rose half a percent on Friday, lifted by bargain-hunting following two straight sessions of losses which were triggered by forecasts of milder weather in U.S. Midwest crop belt.
"The corn market is expected to stay volatile until we have a clear picture of the yields," said Lynette Tan, an analyst with Phillip Futures in Singapore.

Indonesia buys 500,000 T rice from Vietnam -traders
HANOI, July 22 (Reuters) - Indonesia has signed a major contract to buy 500,000 tonnes of Vietnamese rice, traders said on Friday, in a deal that has pushed up domestic prices during the peak harvesting period, which would keep Vietnam's inflation high.
The government-to-government deal, making up half of an annual agreement between the two Southeast Asian countries, is in line with market expectations after industry officials and a Vietnamese state-run newspaper said Indonesia had sought to buy 400,000-600,000 tonnes.

Argentina says China to buy more soyoil, soybeans
BUENOS AIRES, July 21 (Reuters) - China plans to buy more soyoil and soybeans from Argentina in the future, Argentina's government said on Thursday after Agriculture Minister Julian Dominguez met with officials in Beijing.
China was Argentina's top market for soyoil prior to a trade dispute that froze sales for months last year. The Asian powerhouse said in May it would buy 500,000 tonnes of Argentine soyoil after several months of slim trade.

Argentina lowers soy crop estimate to 48.8 mln T
BUENOS AIRES, July 21 (Reuters) - Argentina's 2010/11 soy production is seen totaling 48.8 million tonnes, down from a previous estimate of 49.6 million tonnes, the Agriculture Ministry said in its monthly crop report on Thursday.
Argentina is the world's No. 1 soymeal and soyoil exporter, as well as its third-biggest soybean supplier. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates the country's soy output at 49.5 million tonnes this season.

Palmkernel oil price slumps on ample supplies
AMSTERDAM, July 21 (Reuters) - Prices of palmkernel oil have fallen 40 percent in the past six months due to ample supplies in southeastern Asia, running into high demand as consumers replace more expensive coconut oil, traders said.
Front month contracts of palmkernel oil used in production of plastics, detergents and cosmetics were quoted at $1,335 on Thursday compared to $2,250 in January.

EU rapeseed harvest looking bad, rain slows work
HAMBURG, July 21 (Reuters) - The European Union is facing a sharply lower rapeseed crop in 2011, with falls in Germany and Eastern Europe outweighing better outlooks for crops in France and Britain, traders and analysts said on Thursday.
"The poor crop forecasts in Germany and the east look like being confirmed," a rapeseed trader said. "With harvesting now underway, there are increasing signs improvements in other EU regions are not enough to make up the losses."

SPECIAL PDF REPORT SURGING GRAIN PRICES TO FUEL ASIAN INFLATION (Reuters)
Asian governments struggling to rein in food inflation have their work cut out for them as grain prices rise on tight supplies and growing demand runs down surplus stocks, while weather factors will add an unpredictable twist.

Brent rises on euro zone debt plan, IEA decision
SINGAPORE, July 22 (Reuters) - Brent crude futures rose on Friday, as Europe's sweeping new action on the debt crisis and signs of progress on a U.S. deficit reduction deal offset weak economic data from the world's second largest oil consumer, China.
"Sentiment is positive today because of the news out of Europe. The euro zone leaders managed to keep expectations low before the summit, the announcement of package gave the market a boost," said Chen Xin Yi, a commodities analyst with Barclays Capital.

Iran halts oil supply, but India sees no shortage
NEW DELHI, July 21 (Reuters) - India has a back-up plan to cope with a halt to crude supplies from Iran, its oil minister said, as Tehran upped the ante in an oil payments row and Indian refiners rushed to secure alternative supplies, including from Saudi Arabia.
Since December, India and Iran have struggled to find ways for New Delhi to pay for imports of 400,000 barrels per day, 12 percent of its oil demand, after the Reserve Bank of India halted a clearing mechanism under U.S. pressure.

Russia's President approves oil and gas tax breaks
MOSCOW, July 21 (Reuters) - Russian President Dmitry Medvedev signed into law various oil and gas tax breaks including scrapping the extraction tax for gas produced in the Yamal peninsula for conversion to liquefied natural gas (LNG).
The exemption is crucial for French major Total , which this year bought a stake in Russian independent gas producer Novatek , and for Novatek's greenfield project to produce and liquefy gas there.

Steelmakers sue EU over carbon market rules
BRUSSELS/LONDON, July 21 (Reuters) - European steelmakers said they started legal action on Thursday to overturn the way the sector has been included in the European Union's carbon market.
Industry body Eurofer says the rules for the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) do not set a fair benchmark for allowing the industry's most efficient 10 percent of factories to get all their pollution permits for free after 2013.

LME copper extends fall to 3rd day, eyes 4th week of gains
SINGAPORE, July 22 (Reuters) - London copper futures fell for a third straight day on Friday, weighed by a firmer dollar and investors' worries about potentially weaker demand from top copper consumer China and the United States.
"The news out of Europe was somewhat positive for global growth but I think a lot of that had been priced into these markets," said Ben Westmore, commodity economist at National Australia Bank.

Gold steady after Europe debt deal, US deficit talks eyed
SINGAPORE, July 22 (Reuters) - Gold held steady below $1,600 on Friday, after the euro zone leaders reached an agreement on a Greece bailout plan, but prices are expected to be rangebound as investors keep an eye on the progress made in U.S. debt talks.
"Gold is consolidating right now after rallying in the last two weeks as we are seeing signs that the debt problem is being solved little by little in Greece," said Dick Poon, manager of precious metals in Heraeus, based in Hong Kong.

20110722 1154 Global Market & Commodities Related News.

GLOBAL MARKETS: Euro up on Greece deal hopes, gold off highs
SINGAPORE, July 21 (Reuters) - The euro climbed a third day on Thursday as a deal between France and Germany over a bailout of Greece raised hopes ahead of a major European summit, though investors barely moved from government bonds and precious metals.
"Judging from the current crop of headlines, the most negative outcome for the euro would be a debt rollover without additional measures," Todd Elmer, currency strategist with Citi, said in a note.

OIL: Brent crude falls in late gasoline, spread sell off
NEW YORK, July 21 (Reuters) - Brent crude fell on Thursday, dragged down in an aggressive late sell off in gasoline and spreads due in part to U.S. demand concerns.
"I think part of what we are seeing here is a recognition of where we are in the summer driving season -- we don't have that much driving season demand in front of us," said Tim Evans, energy analyst for Citi Futures Perspective in New York.

Japan extends IEA-led oil reserve requirement to Dec
TOKYO, July 22 (Reuters) - Japan's trade ministry said on Friday it has decided to extend the relaxation of commercial oil reserve requirements to Dec. 31 at the request of International Energy Agency.
The trade ministry last month relaxed reserve requirements by refiners and importers by three days to 67 days' worth, which is equal to about 7.9 million barrels, and that the lower requirements would take effect for one month from June 27.

Iran halts oil supply, but India sees no shortage
NEW DELHI, July 21 (Reuters) - India has a back-up plan to cope with a halt to crude supplies from Iran, its oil minister said, as Tehran upped the ante in an oil payments row and Indian refiners rushed to secure alternative supplies, including from Saudi Arabia.
Since December, India and Iran have struggled to find ways for New Delhi to pay for imports of 400,000 barrels per day, 12 percent of its oil demand, after the Reserve Bank of India halted a clearing mechanism under U.S. pressure.

IEA says further oil reserve release unlikely
TOKYO, July 21 (Reuters) - The United States and other industrialised nations are unlikely to push for a second release of emergency oil supplies, the head of the International Energy Agency said on Thursday, hours before a decision is due to be made.
IEA members agreed to release 60 million barrels in emergency stockpiles last month, only the third release in the agency's history, as concern grew in consumer countries that high oil prices were hurting a fragile global economy.

NATURAL GAS: Natural gas still down after EIAs despite heatwave
NEW YORK, July 21 (Reuters) - Front-month U.S. natural gas futures trimmed morning gains and remained slightly lower early Thursday after a government report showed a weekly inventory build just below market expectations.
"The 'sell the news' reaction to the data suggests that the expectations for a 62 bcf build had more than inoculated the market for a bullish surprise, with traders now able to focus more on what will be a moderate cooling trend into next week,"  Tim Evans, energy analyst at Citi Futures Perspective, said in a report.

EURO COAL: S.Africa prices boosted by strike threat
LONDON, July 21 (Reuters) - European and prompt South African physical coal prices rose by around 50 U.S. cents on Thursday as coal continued to track oil but prices were also slightly boosted by increased buying interests from traders for DES ARA and South African cargoes.
"It could start to get interesting in September if the Germans come back to buy as expected and with the nuclear shutdowns, it's likely that they will need to buy more, fresh coal for Q4," a source at one major European utility said.

July 22 (Bloomberg) -- Silver may more than double to $100 an ounce if the current bull market follows similar patterns seen between 1971 and 1980, according to technical analysis by Citigroup Global Markets Inc. The attached chart shows spot silver had “two legs up” with an interim corrective move down in the last major bull market from November 1971 through January 1980, Citigroup analysts led by New York-based Tom Fitzpatrick wrote in a report. In the current uptrend that started in November 2001, the metal jumped 5.8 times through March 2008 before slipping 60 percent, they said. The price then rebounded and tested the 1980 high earlier this year, they said. “If the final rally in the last bull market repeated then we can expect $100 over the long term,” Fitzpatric

COMMODITIES: Wheat, copper pull commods down; oil ends mixed
NEW YORK, July 21 (Reuters) - Wheat prices on Thursday posted their biggest losses in three weeks and copper slid for a second day, dragging a key commodities index down despite higher U.S. oil prices and a stock market rally.
"It's a liquidation trade today," said Jack Scoville, analyst at The Price Futures Group in Chicago, explaining the sell-off in grains despite the weak dollar, firm oil and higher equities.

20110722 1036 Global Economic Related News.

Malaysia Central Bank To Sell MYR4.00 Bln April 2021 Sukuk July 28 (Dow Jones News)

Singapore: Raises inflation forecast, watches growth risks
The Monetary Authority of Singapore raised its inflation estimate and pledged to remain vigilant against risks to growth, saying the economy may expand in the lower half of its forecast range. Consumer prices may climb 4% to 5% in 2011, higher than a previous estimate of 3% to 4%, Managing Director Ravi Menon said yesterday. He reiterated a prediction for the economy to expand 5% to 7% this year and said the policy stance of allowing the SGD to appreciate “remains appropriate.” (Bloomberg)

HK: Inflation quickens to fastest pace since 2008
Hong Kong’s inflation accelerated to the fastest pace since July 2008 on rising rental costs and higher prices for pork. Consumer prices increased 5.6% in June from a year earlier, the government said on its website yesterday That compared with a 5.2% gain in May. Financial Secretary John Tsang said last month that he is concerned that the economy may overheat in the long term, leading to “hyperinflation,” as the government grapples with extra liquidity and a real-estate bubble. A currency peg links Hong Kong’s monetary policy to that of the US Federal Reserve, which plans to keep its target interest rate near zero for an “extended period.” (Bloomberg)

Indonesia: FDI up 21% in second quarter
Foreign direct investment (FDI) in Indonesia rose 21% in the second quarter of this year from a year ago, as strong commodity prices attracted investors into the mining sector, the government said yesterday. FDI from April to June was IDR43.1rn (USD5bn), which followed USD4.6bn of foreign investment in the first quarter, the country's investment board (BKPM) said. This took FDI in the first six months to just short of a half of its full year target for a record IDR156trn this year. Last year, foreign investment into Indonesia reached a record IDR148trn. (StarBiz)

Brazil: Signals fifth straight rate increase may be the last
Brazil’s central bank signaled that a fifth straight increase in borrowing costs may be enough to contain inflation running at a six-year high. Policy makers, led by central bank President Alexandre Tombini, increased the Selic rate by a quarter point to 12.5% yesterday. In a one-sentence statement accompanying the decision, the policy makers withdrew a commitment made in April and June to raise rates for a “sufficiently long” period. (Bloomberg)

Japan: Exports fell less than economists expected as the decline in auto shipments slowed, underscoring the recovery of the world's third-largest economy from the March 11 earthquake and tsunami. Exports decreased 1.6% in June from a year earlier, the slowest fall in four months, the Finance Ministry said. Shipments increased 5.4% in June from May on a seasonally adjusted basis, the fastest gain since February. (Source: Bloomberg)

India: Food inflation rate fell to the lowest since March 2009 as grain output surged, an easing that may not be sufficient to prevent the central bank from raising interest rates next week. An index measuring wholesale prices of agricultural products including rice and lentils gained 7.58% in the week ended July 9 from a year earlier, the commerce ministry said in a statement in New Delhi. It gained 8.31% the week before. (Source: Bloomberg)

Singapore: Central bank raised its inflation estimate and pledged to remain vigilant against risks to growth, saying the economy may expand in the lower half of its forecast range. Consumer prices may climb 4% to 5% in 2011, higher than a previous estimate of 3% to 4%, Ravi Menon, the managing director of the Monetary Authority of Singapore, said at a press briefing in the city state. He reiterated a prediction for an expansion in GDP of 5% to 7%.(Source: Bloomberg)


EU: May accept Greek default as leaders intensify crisis fight
Euro-area leaders redoubled efforts to end the 21-month sovereign bond crisis as they erected a firewall around Spain and Italy and risked temporary default to lighten Greece’s debt burden. After eight hours of talks in Brussels, leaders announced EUR159bn (USD229bn) in new aid for Greece late yesterday and cajoled bondholders into footing part of the bill. They also empowered their EUR440bn rescue fund to buy debt across stressed euro nations after a market rout last week sparked concern the crisis was spreading. The fund can also aid troubled banks and offer credit-lines to repel speculators. (Bloomberg)


E.U: Services and manufacturing growth weakened more than economists forecast to the slowest pace in almost two years, adding to signs the euro-region recovery is losing momentum as the debt crisis persists. A composite index based on a survey of euro-area purchasing managers in both industries fell to 50.8 in July from 53.3 in June, London-based Markit Economics said. A reading above 50 indicates growth. (Source: Bloomberg)


UK: Budget deficit narrowed to GBP14bn in June
Britain’s budget deficit narrowed to GBP14bn in June as a jump in receipts outpaced growth in government spending. The shortfall, which excludes government support for banks, compared with a revised GBP16.6bn in May and GBP13.6bn a year earlier, the Office for National Statistics said in London yesterday. Revenue rose 5.6% and spending grew 4.9%. (Bloomberg)

UK: Retail sales rise as stores cut prices to lure shoppers
UK retail sales rose in June as shops offered discounts to lure consumers squeezed by strengthening inflation and slow wage growth. Sales including fuel rose 0.7% from May, when they dropped a revised 1.3%, the Office for National Statistics said yesterday in London. On the year, sales increased 0.4%. The statistics office said there was “anecdotal evidence” of summer sales starting earlier this year. (Bloomberg)

US stocks advance on optimism Europe will contain debt crisis
US stocks rallied, extending a weekly gain for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, as European officials announced EUR160bn (USD230bn) in aid for Greece to stop the region’s debt crisis from spreading. The S&P 500 added 1.4% to 1,343.80, extending its gain this week to 2.1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 152.50 points, or 1.2%, to 12,724.41. (Bloomberg)

US: Consumer confidence was little changed, economy view sours
Consumer confidence stagnated last week as Americans’ optimism over their current finances clashed with growing pessimism about the state of the economy. The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index was -43.3 in the period to 17 July, the highest since April, compared with -43.9 the prior week. The monthly gauge of the economic outlook improved from a two-year low. Unemployment at 9.2% in June, the smallest payroll gain in nine months, and a foreclosure-ridden housing market are weighing on the outlook for growth. Gasoline prices are rising again after declining in May and June, threatening to further limit consumer purchases, the biggest part of the economy. (Bloomberg)

U.S: Jobless claims rose by 10,000 last week to 418,000. More Americans than forecast filed claims for unemployment benefits last week, reflecting the volatility of applications during the annual auto-plant retooling period. Applications for jobless benefits increased 10,000 in the week ended July 16 to 418,000, Labor Department figures showed. The data included about 1,750 additional job cuts due to the Minnesota government shutdown, the agency said. (Source: Bloomberg)

20110722 1034 Malaysia Corporate Related News.

MAS: Sees no need to raise cash. Malaysian Airline Systems Bhd (MAS) sees no need to raise capital against a backdrop of weakening travel demand. Poor quarterly results have raised concern over cash depletion at the national carrier, which is expecting at least four more aircraft to be delivered this year. (Source: The Edge Financial Daily)

TM: The latest MVNO? Telekom Malaysia Bhd may be the latest player in the MVNO (mobile virtual network operator) space. It has signed a MoU with Celcom Axiata Bhd to cooperate strategically in providing complete fixed and mobile solutions. (Source: The Edge Financial Daily)

Permanis proposed to be sold to Asahi for RM820m
CI Holdings has signed a conditional agreement to dispose its bottling unit Permanis SB to Asahi Group Holdings for RM820m, lifting a stock trading suspension it had put in place the previous day to make the announcement. The company said the proposed disposal will realize a proforma gain on disposal of approximately RM677.1m, based on its audited financial statement for financial year ended 30 June 2010. (Malaysian Reserve)

Hiap Teck unit, China Shougang in steel mill deals
A subsidiary of iron and steel products manufacturer Hiap Teck Venture has entered into an engineering and procurement contract and a construction contract with China Shougang International Trade and Engineering Corp (Shougang). Under the contracts, Shougang will carry out the first phase of an integrated steel mill in Teluk Kalung in Kemaman, Terengganu, for CNY900.5m (RM418.83m). (Malaysian Reserve)

All Nippon Airways, AirAsia plan budget carrier
All Nippon Airways Co (ANA) will form a low-cost airline with AirAsia to expand budget-fare services in North-East Asia. ANA will take a 51% stake in the venture. The new airline will operate as AirAsia Japan Co out of Narita Airport, Tokyo’s main international gateway, from Aug 2012. It will serve both the domestic Japanese market and international routes in North-East Asia. (Malaysian Reserve)

SEGi appointed as SkillsMalaysia project leader
The Government has appointed SEG International (SEGi) as project leader for a new initiative to bring foreign trainees and learners to Malaysia under a scheme known as SkillsMalaysia International Technical Education & Vocational Training Programme. (Malaysian Reserve)

Fitters buys 30% stake in Philippine plant
Fitters Diversified has acquired 30% stake in a rice husk-fuelled biomass power plant project in the Philippines. Under the deal, Fitters will be part of a team that comprises Solutions Using Renewable Energy Inc (SURE), Bangkok-based Nollen Group and Holland’s Topec W2E Holding BV, which is part of the family-run Pon Group with year sales of EUR5bn (RM21.4bn). The special purpose vehicle (SPV) they formed will provide power to Pepsi Cola Products Philippines Inc. (BT)

Kurnia Asia gets nod to start acquisition talks
Kurnia Asia (KAB) has received the green light from Bank Negara to commence preliminary negotiations with relevant interested parties for the acquisition of an equity stake in its wholly-owned subsidiary, Kurnia Insurans (KIMB). The move by KAB to dispose of its insurance arm is in line with the Bank Negara’s move to relax the foreign ownership limit to 70% under the financial sector liberalization plan and the risk-based capital framework. (StarBiz)

20110722 1008 Global Market Related News.

Emerging-Market Stocks Gain on Optimism Greek Bailout Plan is Advancing (Source: Bloomberg)
Emerging-market stocks gained for the fourth day in five as European leaders announced a plan to give additional aid to Greece and buy stressed sovereign debt across the region. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index gained 0.6 percent to 1,143.29 at 4:45 p.m. in New York, after falling as much as 0.4 percent earlier. Brazil’s Bovespa index gained 1.9 percent, its largest one-day advance in more than seven months. Russia’s Micex added 1.6 percent as crude climbed to a one-month high. Hungary’s benchmark equities gauge surged 2 percent and the Czech PX Index rose 1.4 percent. European leaders empowered their 440-billion euro ($635 billion) rescue fund to buy debt across stressed euro nations after eight hours of talks in Brussels. The fund can also aid troubled banks and offer credit-lines to repel speculators. Leaders pledged a 160 billion euro aid package for Greece, eased the terms of its existing loans and cajoled bondholders into footing part of the bill.

Asian Stocks Rise, Led by Banks (Source: Bloomberg)
Asian stocks rose, with the regional benchmark index erasing its loss for the year, as a new aid plan for Greece eased concern Europe’s debt crisis will spread, reducing uncertainty over earnings at financial companies. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc., Japan’s largest bank by market value, jumped 3.6 percent in Tokyo. Commonwealth Bank of Australia, the nation’s No. 1 lender by market value, advanced 1.6 percent in Sydney after appointing Ian Narev as chief executive officer from December. Samsung Electronics Co., the world’s biggest maker of computer memory chips, rose 1.3 percent in Seoul after Microsoft Corp. and Advanced Micro Devices Inc. posted profits that beat estimates. “Confirmation there’s going to be more support for Greece eases concern about the financial system and it gives investors a little more tolerance for risk,” said Juichi Wako, a senior strategist at Tokyo-based Nomura Holdings Inc.

Democrats Balk at Potential U.S. Debt-Limit Deal (Source: Bloomberg)
Democrats reacted angrily to reports that the White House is cutting a deal with House Republicans to boost the U.S. debt ceiling and reduce deficits by about $3 trillion over 10 years without immediate revenue increases. President Barack Obama’s team has told congressional leaders it is pursuing such a deal, according to two officials familiar with the talks, as the White House and House Speaker John Boehner of Ohio denied one was at hand. The officials, who described outlines of the plan on condition of anonymity, said the leaders were told it would cut spending while calling for a future tax overhaul that could raise $1 trillion in additional revenue. Obama met with Democratic leaders from the House and Senate at the White House for about two hours.

U.S. Consumer Confidence Stagnates (Source: Bloomberg)
Consumer confidence stagnated last week as Americans’ optimism over their current finances clashed with growing pessimism about the state of the economy. The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index was minus 43.3 in the period to July 17, the highest since April, compared with minus 43.9 the prior week. The monthly gauge of the economic outlook improved from a two-year low. Unemployment at 9.2 percent in June, the smallest payroll gain in nine months, and a foreclosure-ridden housing market are weighing on the outlook for growth. Gasoline prices are rising again after declining in May and June, threatening to further limit consumer purchases, the biggest part of the economy.

U.S. Stocks Advance on Earnings, Europe Hope (Source: Bloomberg)
U.S. stocks rallied, extending a weekly gain for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, as European officials announced 160 billion euros ($230 billion) in aid for Greece to stop the region’s debt crisis from spreading. Morgan Stanley jumped 11 percent, the most since April 2009, after the largest brokerage posted the only gain in trading revenue among major U.S. banks. Motorola Mobility Holdings Inc. soared 12 percent after Carl Icahn urged the handset maker to explore alternatives for its patents. Medco Health Solutions Inc. (MHS) rose 14 percent after Express Scripts Inc. (ESRX) agreed to buy the pharmacy-benefits manager for $29.1 billion. The S&P 500 added 1.4 percent to 1,343.80 at 4 p.m. in New York, extending its gain this week to 2.1 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 152.50 points, or 1.2 percent, to 12,724.41.

Leading Economic Indicators in U.S. Probably Rose at a Slower Pace in June (Source: Bloomberg)
The index of U.S. leading indicators probably rose at a slower pace in June, signaling the recovery will be restrained in the second half of the year, economists forecast a report will show today. The Conference Board’s gauge of the outlook for the next three to six months climbed 0.2 percent after a 0.8 percent gain in May, according to the median estimate of 51 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. Cheaper fuel costs, an easing of supply bottlenecks after the Japan earthquake and better weather may combine to help give the expansion a boost during the rest of the year. At the same time, a reluctance to ramp up hiring and limited income growth may limit consumer purchases, the biggest part of the economy.

Advance in U.S. Leading Index Signals Recovery to Pick Up in Second Half (Source: Bloomberg)
The index of U.S. leading indicators rose in June, confirming the Federal Reserve’s forecast that the economy will pick up in the second half of the year. The Conference Board’s gauge of the outlook for the next three to six months climbed 0.3 percent after a 0.8 percent gain in May, the New York-based research group said today. Jobless claims rose more than forecast and consumer confidence stagnated last week, while manufacturing in the Philadelphia area rebounded this month, other reports showed. Cheaper fuel costs, an easing of supply bottlenecks after the Japan earthquake and better weather may combine to help give the recovery a boost. At the same time, a reluctance to ramp up hiring and limited income growth may restrain consumer purchases, the biggest part of the economy.

S&P Reiterates Warning of 50% Chance of U.S. Downgrade Within Three Months (Source: Bloomberg)
Standard & Poor’s reiterated that there is a 50 percent chance that it will lower the U.S. credit rating within three months as lawmakers struggle to reach agreement over raising the nation’s debt ceiling and deficit reduction. S&P said on July 14 there was a one-in-two possibility that it would cut the U.S. AAA by one or more levels if the government hasn’t agreed on a “credible solution” on the nation’s debt level. The company reiterated the warning in a report today outlining three hypothetical scenarios.

Manufacturing in Philadelphia Fed Region Expanded in July (Source: Bloomberg)
Manufacturing in the Philadelphia region rebounded in July from its first contraction this year, a sign factories are recovering from earlier supply shortages caused by Japan’s earthquake. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s general economic index rose to 3.2 from minus 7.7 the prior month. Readings greater than zero signal growth in the area covering eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey and Delaware. The median forecast of 57 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was 2. Estimates ranged from minus 6 to 10. Easing supply shortages after Japan’s March earthquake means carmakers and other producers can make up lost production, even as mounting inventories may restrain the advance. With consumer spending slowing, manufacturers will have to rely more on overseas orders to keep growing.

Treasuries Advance on Speculation Spending Cuts Will Damp Economic Growth (Source: Bloomberg)
Treasuries rose, snapping a two-day drop, on speculation government efforts to trim the U.S. budget deficit will lead to spending cuts and damp economic growth. Benchmark 10-year yields of 3 percent are about 1 percentage point below the average for the past decade as the pace of expansion falls short of what analysts forecast. President Barack Obama’s administration is discussing a plan with House Republicans to boost the U.S. debt ceiling and reduce deficits by about $3 trillion over 10 years without immediate revenue increases.

Strong foreign demand drives U.S. manufacturers
BOSTON/NEW YORK, July 20 (Reuters) - Strong demand from emerging markets is driving profit growth for U.S. manufacturers this year, but executives do not expect that to be much of a lift for the sluggish U.S. economy.
In fact, a top executive at United Technologies Corp  attributed the 18.9 percent rise in profit at the world's largest maker of elevators and air conditioners partly to the company's ability to hold the line on hiring.

U.S. Risks an August Rating Downgrade If No Deficit Progress, S&P Says (Source: Bloomberg)
Standard & Poor’s reiterated that the U.S. may lose its AAA credit rating as soon as August as the risk of a default escalates amid political wrangling to lift the debt limit while cutting the budget deficit. The rating may be lowered to the AA+ range with a negative outlook next month even if an agreement to raise the debt ceiling in time to avert a potential default without a “credible” plan to lower deficits, S&P said in a report. The New York-based ratings company reiterated today that the chance of a downgrade is 50 percent in the next three months, as outlined when it placed the rating on “CreditWatch” for a downgrade on July 14.

Fitch to decide on US ratings outlook in Aug
NEW YORK, July 20 (Reuters) - Fitch Ratings said on Wednesday it will decide next month whether the United States deserves to keep a stable outlook on its AAA credit rating as it concludes a review of the country's economic and fiscal outlook.
David Riley, Fitch's main analyst for the United States, said the decision will take into account a final budget agreement in Washington to reduce the country's deficit in the medium to long term.

Balanced-Budget Amendment Makes Politics Easy, Budgets Bad: View (Source: Bloomberg)
An amendment to the U.S. Constitution should have two qualities: It should make sense as a piece of legislation, and it should be, as much as possible, politically neutral. The balanced-budget amendment, which has re-emerged in Congress as part of the political jockeying over the budget impasse, fails on both counts. Justice Oliver Wendell Holmes famously said that a constitution is “made for people of fundamentally differing views.” There are limits to this. You don’t want the Constitution to be neutral between slaveholders and abolitionists. But it shouldn’t be choosing sides in budget disputes. These decisions are up to the elected branches.
A balanced-budget amendment, especially the current model, clearly does take sides. It would require a two-thirds supermajority in both houses to raise taxes, with no such requirement to lower taxes. It would require spending to be cut to 18 percent of gross domestic product, down from its current 24 percent, and even down from the 19 percent to 20 percent of recent years, prior to the recession. If the amendment were in effect today, the budget passed by House Republicans in April would spend too much -- it would be unconstitutional.

China factory sector shrinks, IMF finds world worried
BEIJING, July 21 (Reuters) - China's factory sector shrank for the first time in a year in July, a survey showed on Thursday, feeding worries among the country's main trading partners that its growth is unsustainable and could lead to a slump.
The HSBC flash purchasing managers' index (PMI) fell to 48.9 in July, suggesting the manufacturing sector contracted at its fastest pace since March 2009, as monetary policy tightening and slack global demand weighed on the sector.

Yen Falls as Easing Concern Over Europe’s Crisis Damps Demand for Safety (Source: Bloomberg)
The yen fell against all of its 16 major counterparts as stocks rallied worldwide on optimism European officials will contain the region’s debt crisis, damping demand for Japan’s currency as a refuge. The euro gained for a second day against the yen after European officials eased the terms of loans for cash-strapped nations and expanded aid for Greece. Japan’s currency dropped from a four-month high versus the dollar after Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda reiterated he’s watching markets closely because the yen’s moves have been “one-sided.” The greenback pared yesterday’s loss against the euro after Treasury yields rose. European leaders “could’ve been a little more aggressive and there are some residual questions to be answered, but they’ve done enough to protect the market at the moment,” said Adam Carr, a senior economist at ICAP Australia Ltd. in Sydney. “We will probably see some further weakening” in the yen.

Japan’s Topix Advances Most in Two Weeks on Greece Rescue Plan (Source: Bloomberg)
Japan’s Topix index rose the most in two weeks as a bailout plan for Greece eased concern Europe’s debt crisis will spread, and after Morgan Stanley and Microsoft Inc. reported better-than-expected earnings, boosting confidence in the profit outlook for financial and technology companies. Toyota Motor Corp. (7203), the world’s biggest carmaker, climbed 0.8 percent. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. (8306), Japan’s largest bank by market value, jumped 3.6 percent. Terumo Corp. (4543), a maker of medical devices, advanced 1.3 percent after the Nikkei newspaper said it had record first-quarter profit. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average rose 0.9 percent to 10,099.59 as of 9:05 a.m. in Tokyo. The broader Topix index gained 0.9 percent to 868.12, the most since July 6, with six stocks rising for each that fell.

Korean Won Climbs to 2008 High, Bonds Drop as Funds Buy Shares on Greece (Source: Bloomberg)
South Korea’s won climbed to its strongest level in almost three years after European leaders agreed on a package to contain the region’s debt crisis, reigniting investor interest in emerging-market assets. European officials announced 159 billion euro ($229 billion) in new aid for Greece late yesterday and empowered their 440 billion euro rescue fund to buy debt across stressed euro nations. Overseas funds bought more Korean shares than they sold for the first time in nine days, purchasing a net 33 billion won ($31 million) worth today, according to data from Korea Exchange. “We got quite encouraging news from embattled Europe,” said Kim Jinju, a Seoul-based currency dealer with Korea Exchange Bank. “There is some caution among traders ahead of the psychologically important 1,050 level but the strong momentum will likely continue.”

EU Leaders Offer $229 Billion in New Greek Aid (Source: Bloomberg)
Euro-area leaders redoubled efforts to end the 21-month sovereign bond crisis as they erected a firewall around Spain and Italy and risked temporary default to lighten Greece’s debt burden. After eight hours of talks in Brussels, leaders announced 159 billion euro ($229 billion) in new aid for Greece late yesterday and cajoled bondholders into footing part of the bill. They also empowered their 440-billion euro rescue fund to buy debt across stressed euro nations after a market rout last week sparked concern the crisis was spreading. The fund can also aid troubled banks and offer credit-lines to repel speculators. The euro strengthened as officials drew concessions from Germany, the European Central Bank and investors for a twin- track strategy to support Greece and ensure its woes don’t spread. The summit is the latest in a running-battle to resolve the crisis amid calls this week for tougher action from U.S. President Barack Obama and the International Monetary Fund.

German Stocks Rally on Reports EU Has Agreed on Bank-Recapitalization Plan (Source: Bloomberg)
German stocks rallied for a third day, led by banks, amid reports that European Union officials have drafted a plan to recapitalize struggling banks and halt a surge in bond yields. Commerzbank, the country’s second-biggest lender, surged 9.6 percent as bank shares in western Europe posted their biggest rally since January. Infineon Technologies AG (IFX) declined 1.2 percent, tracking a slump in European technology stocks. The benchmark DAX Index (DAX) advanced 68.78, or 1 percent, to 7,290.14 at the 5:30 p.m. close in Frankfurt. Even so, the measure has dropped 3.2 percent since this year’s high on May 2 amid concern that Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis will worsen. The broader HDAX rose 0.9 percent today.

Brazil Signals Fifth Rate Increase May Be Last as Global Outlook Worsens (Source: Bloomberg)
Brazil’s central bank signaled that a fifth straight increase in borrowing costs may be enough to contain inflation running at a six-year high. Policy makers, led by central bank President Alexandre Tombini, increased the Selic rate by a quarter point to 12.50 percent yesterday. In a one-sentence statement accompanying the decision, which was expected by all 57 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, policy makers withdrew a commitment made in April and June to raise rates for a “sufficiently long” period. Whether policy makers raise rates again this year depends on whether the global economy deteriorates further, helping ease price pressures in Latin America’s biggest economy, analysts from Barclays Plc and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said. Economists doubt Tombini will succeed in bringing price increases to the 4.5 percent target next year even if he raises the benchmark rate again in August, according to the most-recent bank survey.

South African Central Bank Keeps Interest Rate at 5.5% as Recovery Falters (Source: Bloomberg)
South Africa’s central bank left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at a 30-year low for a fourth consecutive meeting as the recovery in Africa’s biggest economy falters. The repurchase rate was kept at 5.5 percent in a unanimous decision, Governor Gill Marcus said today in a televised speech from the capital, Pretoria. All 24 economists surveyed by Bloomberg predicted the decision. Retail sales were unchanged in May from the year-earlier period, while manufacturing rose 0.6 percent, undermining the economy’s recovery and the outlook for job creation. That is overriding the central bank’s concern that rising food and fuel costs will push inflation outside of the 3 percent to 6 percent target by the fourth quarter.

FOREX-Euro falls in nervous market; choppy ahead of summit
LONDON, July 21 (Reuters) - The euro dived on Thursday after Eurogroup President Jean-Claude Juncker was quoted as suggesting a selective default for Greece was possible, prompting investors who had bought the euro in anticipation of progress at a European summit to cut their positions.
A media report quoted Juncker as saying a selective default for Greece could not be excluded, and sent the euro crashing through stops at $1.4235-40, and then through further large stops below $1.4200.

20110722 1006 Global Commodities Related News.

Corn (Source: CME)
US corn futures close down for a second-consecutive day as weather forecasts call for a damaging Midwest heat wave to ease. Temperatures will moderate this weekend and early next week, reducing stress on the corn crop, meteorologists predict. Yet, the market trimmed losses ahead of the close as MDA EarthSat Weather confirmed "extreme heat across the Midwest over the past several days has certainly stressed" the crop. Unfavorably hot weather is expected to return late next week and in early August. CBOT December corn slides 4 3/4c to $6.73/bushel.

Wheat(Source: CME)
US wheat futures suffer the heaviest losses in the grain markets as prices retreat following a 2-day rally. Profit-taking pressured wheat as demand is lackluster and supplies are considered ample. "The upside move on Wednesday in wheat was overdone, and we're now paying a price for it," says Mike Zuzolo of Global Commodity Analytics & Consulting. CBOT September wheat sinks 19 3/4c to $6.77 1/4 a bushel while KCBT September loses 19 3/4c to $7.74 1/4 and MGEX September drops 19c to $8.33 3/4.

Rice(Source: CME)
US rice futures close modestly higher as the market stabilizes after approaching a 3-year high last week. Concerns about lower-than-expected US plantings and a reduced supply outlook continue to underpin prices. Meanwhile, foreign demand for US rice pulled back last week, dropping 1% sequentially and 26% from the prior 4-week average for the week ended July 14 at 57,400 tons, according to the USDA. CBOT September rice gains 8c to $16.85 1/2 per hundredweight.

U.S. corn, wheat up on crop weather, dollar
HAMBURG, July 20 (Reuters) - Chicago wheat rose over 1 percent on Wednesday while corn and sobeans also gained on concerns hot weather in the United States threatened crops.
"Wheat and corn prices have been profiting from a weaker  U.S. dollar, higher risk appetite and expectations that the  dispute about the US debt limit will be solved soon," Germany's  Commerzbank said on Wednesday. "On the fundamental front, hot  and dry weather in many parts of the U.S. has been supporting  prices."

Russia sees grain export at 18 mln tonnes-Ifax
MOSCOW, July 21 (Reuters) - Russia sees grain exports of 18 million tonnes in 2011-12, Interfax news agency cited Agriculture Minister Yelena Skrynnik as saying on Thursday.
"We shall return our position on the world grain market," Skyrnnik was quoted as saying. "This year export will total 18 million tonnes."

Australia rain outlook mixed for wheat: weather bureau
SYDNEY, July 21 (Reuters) - Australia's key wheat growing regions are facing average or below average rainfall in the three months to October, the weather bureau said on Thursday, indicating some threat to crops during the critical growing period.
Grain regions in western New South Wales, northwestern Victoria and south western parts of Western Australia states are all seen receiving below-average rain while other grain areas are seen getting average precipitation.

U.S. crops and cattle stressed by hellish heat
CHICAGO, July 20 (Reuters) - Mother Nature is hell this week, especially for American farmers and ranchers.
A heat wave has descended on U.S. cropland and pastures, with no relief expected until the weekend.

Rainstorms sweep over dry western Canada crops
WINNIPEG, Manitoba, July 20 (Reuters) - Storms rolled over moisture-starved crops in Saskatchewan and Manitoba on Wednesday, but the reprieve from a major heatwave had a mixed impact, industry sources said.
Parts of southeastern Saskatchewan received 63.5 mm of rain (2.5 inches) in 30 minutes early Wednesday morning, before the storm dumped 35 to 50 mm (1.4 to 2 inches) in southwestern Manitoba around Brandon, according to Environment Canada.

Ukraine raises 2011 grain crop fcast to 47 mln T
KIEV, July 20 (Reuters) - Ukraine's Farm Minister Mykola Prysyazhnyuk said on Wednesday the ex-Soviet republic was likely to harvest about 47 million tonnes of grain this year compared to the previous estimate of 45 million tonnes.
"Taking into account the results of the first half of the field works we could expect that the total grain crop may reach no less than 47 million tonnes," Interfax-Ukraine news agency quoted Prysyazhnyuk as saying.

S.Africa's 2011 wheat crop seen at 1.7 mln T -Agri min
JOHANNESBURG, July 20 (Reuters) - South Africa is seen harvesting 1.7 million tonnes of wheat in the 2011 season, compared with 1.4 million tonnes in the previous season, the agriculture minister said on Wednesday.
Tina Joemat-Pettersson said a plant survey of farmers conducted in April this year showed that wheat plantings for the 2011 production season would be about 600,000 hectares, up from last season's plantings of 558,100 hectares.

Russia Lifts 2011-2012 Grain Export Forecast To 18 Mln Tons(Source: CME)
Russia is likely to export 18 million metric tons of grain in the 2011-2012 marketing year, and not 15 million tons as was forecast earlier, provided the country harvests between 85 million-90 million tons of grain, Agriculture Minister Elena Skrynnik said in Moscow as quoted by the ministry's press service. Deputy Prime Minister Viktor Zubkov said July 14 the Russian government now expected this year's grain harvest at 90 million tons, not 85 million tons as was estimated earlier. Last year's harvest fell to 60.9 million tons from 97.1 million tons in 2009 due to the summer drought.

Wheat Drops Most This Month as U.S. Exports Fall, Russian Supplies to Gain (Source: Bloomberg)
Wheat futures fell the most this month on signs that demand is easing for supplies from the U.S., the world’s largest exporter, as competing producers boost output and offer lower prices. Net U.S. sales to foreign buyers in the week ended July 14 fell 22 percent from a week earlier to 403,528 metric tons, the fewest since the end of May, the Department of Agriculture said today. Russia may export 18 million tons in the year that started July 1 after halting shipments during a drought last year, the country’s agriculture minister said. This year’s crop may be 48 percent larger than 2010. “Russian business is more competitive than us,” Tom Leffler, the owner of Leffler Commodities LLC in Augusta, Kansas, said in a telephone interview. “That’s not good, because we have so much wheat, that we need to export some.”

Soybeans May Open Higher on U.S. Export Sales; Corn May Fall; Wheat Steady (Source: Bloomberg)
What follows are opening calls for U.S. grain and oilseed markets.
-- Soybean futures may open 1 cent to 3 cents a bushel higher on the Chicago Board of Trade on increased U.S. export sales, Mark Schultz, the chief analyst for Minneapolis-based Northstar Commodity Investment Co., said in a telephone interview. Soybean-meal futures may open up $1 to $2 for 2,000 pounds, and soybean-oil futures are expected to open steady to down 0.1 cent a pound.
-- Corn futures are called to open 2 cents to 5 cents a bushel lower in Chicago as rain in Iowa and Nebraska, two of the three biggest U.S. producers, may ease the risk of crop damage from a heat wave, while forecasts show less-threatening conditions in parts of the Midwest during the next two weeks, Schultz said.
-- Wheat futures may open 1 cent a bushel lower to 1 cent higher on the CBOT, the Kansas City Board of Trade and the Minneapolis Grain Exchange as a weaker dollar reduces the cost of supplies from the U.S., which today reported exports last week were 36 percent below the average of the previous four weeks, Schultz said.

As Cotton Unravels, Clothing Makers Revisit Pricing (Source: CME)
After hitting historic highs this spring, cotton prices are plunging, the result of higher production and lower demand. It's an about-face for clothing makers that spent the last year grappling with higher costs and how much, if any, could be passed along to consumers. Now, retailers are wondering if the lower cotton prices, off 53% since their March 4 peak, will last or if the rollercoaster ride will continue. "There's never been this kind of volatility in cotton-- ever," Eric Wiseman, chief executive of VF Corp., the world's largest apparel company, said. Lower cotton prices won't show up in merchandise on store shelves until late spring of next year. But over the next few months, clothing companies will have to decide whether they can continue to charge more for their cotton T-shirts and denim jeans, allowing them to widen profit margins, or to pull back and give consumers a break.
VF, maker of Lee and Wrangler jeans, hopes its price increases will stick. "In an ideal world, we'll be able to hold the current prices and recoup the gross margin we've lost," Wiseman said. The swing in cotton prices has been particularly evident over the past year. Propelled by bad harvests in Asia and robust demand, cotton more than doubled between last July and March's $2.1515 a pound peak price, the highest in the 140 years that the commodity has traded on an exchange. The surge late last year forced companies to decide among raising prices, taking a hit on margins or re-engineering their products to use lower-cost fabrics or less embellishment, said Christian Callieri, a principal in A.T. Kearney's consumer and retail practice. Fabric can account for as much as 60% of the cost of a garment. But since spring, cotton prices have retraced their gains as signs of falling demand emerged. Cotton prices have lost 37% so far this month.
In its latest monthly report, the U.S. Department of Agriculture cut its estimate of U.S. cotton exports by 8% to 12 million bales for the marketing year ending July 31, 2012. For the year ending July 31, U.S. exports are estimated to reach 14.5 million bales. Brands that specialize in value-priced, cotton merchandise like T-shirts and jeans are the most vulnerable to price volatility because raw material costs make up a greater percentage of their total cost. The pressure is particularly acute for underwear makers, including Hanesbrands Inc., Fruit of the Loom Inc. and Jockey International Inc. Hanesbrands has raised prices already this year and plans to do so again in the fourth quarter. Chief Executive Rich Noll said the company is in talks with its retailers on how to handle pricing for the second half of 2012. One likely option would be to increase the number of items in a package-- adding a pair of underwear, for example-- while keeping the higher ticket price.
"In essence, you have offset the fact that cotton has come down," Noll said. Many foreign mills that had purchased cotton during the price run-up are now rushing to cancel the contracts, figuring they can no longer afford the prices now that there is less demand, according to cotton merchants. China, the world's largest cotton consumer, reported a 32% year-on-year drop in its cotton imports in June, confirming market fears over weak demand.

ICE sugar, coffee futures rise early, cocoa dips
LONDON, July 21 (Reuters) - Sugar futures edged up in early trade  as the market continued to derive support from lower-than-expected production in Brazil, while coffee prices rebounded from the prior sesssion's six-month lows
ICE raw sugar futures rose in early trade,  boosted by slightly weaker dollar and a diminished outlook for sugar production in top grower Brazil.

Brazil cane output seen sluggish until 2013
BRASILIA, July 20 (Reuters) - Brazil's cane sector will fail to achieve a badly-needed rise in output until at least 2013 as aging cane plants produce less and newly-planted areas take time to mature, a senior industry analyst told Reuters.
The urgency of investment in renewal of cane plants has been brought home to mills in the world's top sugar producer with an industry forecast of a production fall for the first time in years as under-investment bites into yields.

Solar Earnings Mirage Brings Muddy Waters Concerns to China’s Panel Makers (Source: Bloomberg)
Investors are starting to doubt profit estimates for China’s solar manufacturers as concerns about accounting practices first spotted at a forestry company spread nationwide. Directors leading audit committees quit LDK Solar Co. on July 18 and at its rival Trina Solar Ltd. (TSL) on July 12. Moody’s Investors Service on July 11 cited “accounting risks” at five Chinese companies including LDK. Muddy Waters LLC, a Hong Kong researcher, on June 2 accused Sino-Forest Corp. (TRE) of inflating its timber production. Those events widened doubts about the solar industry, which already was struggling with falling demand and prices, said Shawn Kravetz, chief executive officer at Esplanade Capital. Eight Chinese companies in the 17-member Bloomberg Large Solar Index have declined 13 percent since the Muddy Waters note, depressing share valuations to less than half the average Hong Kong’s benchmark share index.

Oil Climbs for Fourth Day on Optimism Over U.S. Economy, Greek Debt Crisis (Source: Bloomberg)
Oil climbed for a fourth day and headed for a fourth weekly gain as investors bet fuel demand will rise amid improving manufacturing growth in the U.S. and optimism Europe will contain its debt crisis. Futures gained as much as 0.5 percent after climbing 0.7 percent yesterday. Manufacturing in the Philadelphia area rebounded in July from its first contraction this year while European officials said Greece will receive new aid. Prices also rose after the International Energy Agency said it won’t extend a release of oil supplies. “The Philly Fed numbers fed into underlying hopefulness about the economy,” said John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital LLC, a New York-based hedge fund that focuses on energy. “It looks like Europe has come to an agreement about Greece, and with that prospects for the region’s economy and fuel demand will improve.”

Crude-Oil Futures Tops $100 a Barrel in N.Y. for First Time Since June 10 (Source: Bloomberg)
Crude oil rose in New York to more than $100 a barrel for the first time since June 10. Crude for September delivery rose as much as $1.96, or 2 percent, to $100.10 on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Oil Rises to One-Month High on Manufacturing Index, Europe Debt Optimism (Source: Bloomberg)
Crude oil rose to a one-month high in New York after manufacturing in the Philadelphia area rebounded and on reports European Union officials have come up with a plan for the region’s debt crisis, bolstering the euro. Futures advanced 0.7 percent as the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s general economic index rose to 3.2 from minus 7.7. Euro-area leaders may accept a temporary Greek default and ease the terms on bailouts to cash-strapped nations. Prices also rose after the International Energy Agency said it won’t extend a release of oil supplies.

Indonesia says India's NALCO in talks to invest in smelter
JAKARTA, July 21 (Reuters) - India's state-run National Aluminium Co Ltd (NALCO)  is in talks to invest in an aluminium smelter in Indonesia's Kalimantan province, an official at Indonesia's investment agency said on Thursday.
Indian firms are also interested in investing in geothermal power, railways and cement production in Southeast Asia's biggest economy, the official said, declining to give names of companies or potential investment figures.

China leads June global steel output to new record
LONDON, July 20 (Reuters) - Global steel production rose again in June, led by record crude output in China, and U.S. steelmakers also made more, despite slow growth in the world's largest economy, data showed on Wednesday.
But production may ease later this year as steelmakers, facing softer demand in the last few months, could reduce output to defend profitability, some analysts said.

China steel output to keep record pace on building frenzy
SINGAPORE/SHANGHAI, July 21 (Reuters) - China's steel production could maintain its breakneck pace in the second half of 2011 as a construction boom buoys demand, putting it on track for another record year despite the government's credit curbs.
China, which makes nearly half the world's crude steel, is expected to produce at least 700 million tonnes this year as mills cash in on rising prices, with apparent consumption up nearly 9 percent so far in the first six months.  

Copper Futures Fall Most in Four Weeks as Manufacturing Declines in China (Source: Bloomberg)
Copper futures fell the most in four weeks on signs that demand is dwindling in China, the world’s largest metal user. Preliminary data showed a gauge of Chinese manufacturing slid to a 28-month low this month. The final report is due Aug. 1. Copper prices have dropped 5.9 percent from a record $4.6575 a pound in February as China raised borrowing costs to cool inflation, and debt woes in Europe and the U.S. threatened the global economy. “China has been struggling with tight credit for some time,” Julien Garran, an analyst at UBS AG in London, said in a telephone interview. “We’ve also got Europe deteriorating and slowing demand in the West, as well as in other emerging markets. For us, that means the fundamentals are turning down.”

China June refined copper imports up 19.7 pct on month
HONG KONG, July 21 (Reuters) - China's monthly imports of refined copper rose 19.7 percent in June from a 30-month low seen in May, due to improved arbitrage and the arrival of contracted spot metal.
China, the world's top copper consumer, imported 178,638 tonnes of refined copper in June, the highest since March 2011 and up from May's 149,235 tonnes.

China June implied copper demand rises on imports, output
HONG KONG, July 21 (Reuters) - China's apparent demand for refined copper rose 9.9 percent in June from a month earlier after falling 2.1 percent in May, but demand was down 2.3 percent from a year earlier, Reuters calculations based on official Chinese data showed on Thursday.
Average daily net imports in June rose 40.6 percent from the previous month due to a 23.7 percent rise in imports and a 84.3 percent fall in exports.

Copper market sees surplus in Jan-May 2011-WBMS
LONDON, July 20 (Reuters) - The global copper market had a surplus of 74,100 tonnes in the January to May 2011 period compared with a surplus of 54,000 tonnes for the whole of last year, the World Bureau of Metal Statistics said on Wednesday.
"Global consumption for January to May 2011 was 7.878 million tonnes and the 2010 calendar year total was 19.13 million tonnes," WBMS said in a release.

METALS-LME copper falls for 2nd day on soft China data
SINGAPORE, July 21 (Reuters) - London copper dropped for a second day on Thursday, erasing early gains, as poor manufacturing data at top copper consumer China countered optimism about progress in resolving debt woes in Europe and the United States.
China's factory output shrank in July for the first time in 12 months, according to HSBC's flash PMI data, reflecting the impact of Beijing's tighter monetary policy and slack global demand.

PRECIOUS-Gold hovers around $1,600/oz; euro zone summit eyed
LONDON, July 21 (Reuters) - Gold held near $1,600 an ounce on Thursday, supported near this week's record highs by caution ahead of a key euro zone summit and as concerns persisted over talks to raise the U.S. debt ceiling, a necessary move to avoid a default.
However, it struggled to make fresh gains as appetite for risk improved after Germany and France reached a common position ahead of the summit, at which leaders will try to agree on a second bailout package for debt-laden Greece.

20110722 1004 Soy Oil & Palm Oil Related News.

Pre-report estimates for weekly export sales of soybeans ranged from 400,000 mt (14.7 mb) to 550,000 mt (20.2 mb). The weekly report showed total old-crop and new-crop export sales of 445,900 mt (16.3 mb), with old-crop sales of 257,000 mt (9.4 mb) bringing the yearly total to 1.545 bb, above USDA's demand projection of 1.52 bb. Total shipments of 135,800 mt (5 mb) were below the 375,700 mt (13.8 mb) needed this week. This report should be considered slightly bearish. (Source: Unknown)

Soybeans(Source: CME)
US soybean futures end higher, as weather uncertainties and higher than expected weekly export sales underpin prices. The variability of weather forecasts, with the potential for a return of hot, dry weather next week after a period of moderating temperatures and rainfall supported prices, analysts say. Strong old crop export sales supplied support as well, with higher crude oil futures and a weaker U.S. dollar providing external strength, analysts add. However, advances were limited by spillover weakness from corn, and prices trading near the top of a 5-month trading range. CBOT Nov rose 4c to $13.88/bushel.

Soybean Meal/Oil(Source: CME)
Soy-product futures end mixed, with soymeal ending higher with soybeans. Soymeal drew support from higher-than-expected export sales and concerns a slowing US crushing pace is limiting availability, analysts say. Soyoil slipped on traders bought soymeal versus soyoil on spreads. CBOT December soymeal end up 0.4% at $368.90/short ton while soyoil fell 0.6% to 57.38c/pound.

China's Big Edible Oil Makers Apply For Price Increase -Report (Source: CME)
China's Yihai Kerry Group and state-owned edible oil maker Cofco Group have applied to the National Development and Reform Commission for a price increase of around 5% on their edible oil products, the 21st Century Business Herald reported. The top planning body hasn't replied to the application, the newspaper said, citing an unnamed enterprise executive. Yihai Kerry is the Chinese branch of Singapore-based Wilmar International Ltd., which accounts for more than 50% of China's edible oil retail market. Neither Yihai Kerry nor Cofco could be reached for comment. Companies don't dare to announce a price increase without prior clearance, the executive said, adding that it is safest to take a low-key approach or the company may be punished, the report said.

Palm oil slips from 1-month high as markets weigh
KUALA LUMPUR, Jul 21 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures barely moved  after hitting a one-month high earlier in the session as weaker external markets erased gains made on higher export hopes.
"The market is looking for direction. Although exports data was good but overseas markets didn't perform well in the morning," said a trader in Kuala Lumpur, who pegged palm oil to trade in tight range between 3,120 to 3,170 ringgit.

Indonesia 2011 crude palm oil output seen at 22.5-23 mln T-assoc
JAKARTA, July 21 (Reuters) - Indonesia's crude palm oil output this year is estimated at 22.5 million tonnes to 23 million tonnes, from 21.6 million tonnes in 2010, executive director of the Indonesian Palm Oil Producers Association (GAPKI) said on Thursday.
"There is an increase in productivity and also the harvest has started," Fadhil Hasan told Reuters on the sidelines of a seminar. Indonesia is the world's largest palm oil producer.  He expects Indonesia's year-end crude palm oil stocks to be  at a normal level of 1.5 million tonnes to 2.0 million tonnes.

Thai feed mills buy Brazilian soymeal, to seek more
SINGAPORE, July 20 (Reuters) - Thai feed millers stepped up soymeal purchases this week, taking up to 120,000 tonnes from Brazil, and are expected to issue a tender next week for more cargoes to cover supplies for the fourth quarter.
A feed mill bought cargoes from an international trading company at a premium of around $50 to the December Chicago Board of Trade price  for shipment between October and December, two trade sources said on Wednesday.

Indonesia may cut August palm oil tax to 15 pct - trade
JAKARTA, July 20 (Reuters) - Indonesia, the world's largest palm oil producer, could cut its crude palm oil export tax to 15 percent in August from 20 percent in July because of a drop in international prices, an industry source said on Wednesday.
"We expect the tax to be capped at 15 percent next month because the the average price of CPO was $1,090 in the first 20 days of July," said the source.