Wednesday, September 7, 2011

20110907 1805 FCPO EOD Daily Chart Study.


FCPO closed : 3042, changed : +57 points, volume : lower.
Bollinger band reading : side way range bound.
MACD Histrogram : resumed rising, buyer and seller battling.
Support : 3020, 2970, 2930, 2900 level.
Resistance : 3050, 3070, 3100, 3150 level.
Comment :
FCPO closed recorded substantial gains with lower volume changed hand while overnight soy oil ended little lower and currently trading higher while crude oil currently rebounding higher.
Deteriorate U.S. soybean crop conditions and tighten soyoil supplies resulted traders bet on demand shifting to crude palm oil again plus yesterday oversold price level due to worries on global economy slowdown lead price of FCPO to rebound higher.
News wise, Reuters survey reported lower export, stocks and production levels.
Daily chart formed a up bar bar candle closed above middle Bollinger band level after market opened little higher and soar upwards all the way before eased little lower to closed near the high of the day.
Chart reading remained suggesting a side way range bound little downside biased market development testing support and resistance level.
When to buy : buy at support or weakness with quick cut loss and profit target.
When to sell : sell at resistant or strength with quick cut loss and profit target.

20110907 1739 Crude Palm Oil Aug 2011 Reuters Survey

Reuters Survey :
Malaysia Aug 2011 Crude Palm Oil
- Exports seen down 4.6% at 1.65 million tonnes from Jul 2011
- Stocks seen down 2.3% at 1.95 million tonnes from Jul 2011
- Output seen down 2.9% at 1.7 million tonnes from Jul 2011

20110907 1732 FKLI EOD Daily Chart Study.

FKLI closed : 1463, changed : +15 points, volume : lower.
Bollinger band reading : correction range bound little downside biased.
MACD Histrogram : rising higher, seller leaving.
Support : 1458, 1445, 1425, 1405 level.
Resistance : 1470, 1485, 1500, 1515 level.
Comment :
FKLI recovered recorded gains snapping back 2 previous 2 days losses with lesser volume participation doing 1.5 point discount compare to cash market that ended higher. Overnight U.S. market closed lower and today Asia markets ended in positive zone while European markets also trading higher.
U.S. President Obama job growth plan, Asia markets three-day drop left valuations near a three-year low and a weaker yen boosted the outlook for Japanese exporters resulted global markets to rebound higher.
Back home, FKLI and KLCI cash market also traded having technical rebound after recent falls.
Daily chart formed an up doji bar candle with long lower shadow positioned nearer to middle Bollinger band level after market opened higher, slide downwards and consolidate within 2.5 points range before climbed higher to closed near the high of the day.
Chart reading adjusted to suggesting a correction range bound little downside biased market development possible testing resistance level near middle Bollinger band with MACD indicator having positive crossed up.
When to buy : buy at support or weakness with quick cut loss and profit target.
When to sell : sell at resistance or strength with quick cut loss and profit target.

20110907 1709 Global Market & Commodities Related News.

Asian Stocks Rebound After Slide Drags Valuations to Almost Three-Year Low (Source: Bloomberg)
Asian stocks gained, with the benchmark regional index set for its biggest rise in almost six months, after a three-day drop left valuations near a three-year low and as a weaker yen boosted the outlook for Japanese exporters. Toyota Motor Corp. (7203), the world’s biggest carmaker, advanced 2.9 percent in Tokyo. Samsung Electronics Co., a South Korean exporter of consumer electronics that counts Europe as its third-largest market for sales, increased 6.3 percent. BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP), the world’s No. 1 mining company, advanced 3.7 percent after oil and copper prices rose. Hyundai Motor Co. increased 3.7 in Seoul after saying it plans to expand its European market share. “Unless we get clear policies, it’s hard to make long- lasting investment decisions,” Belinda Allen, senior analyst of investment markets research at Colonial First State Global Asset Management in Sydney, which oversees about $150 billion, said in an interview with Bloomberg TV. “It’s too soon to say we’re on a firmer footing.”

European Stocks Rebound From Two-Year Low (Source: Bloomberg)
European stocks rose, rebounding from a two-year low, after three days of losses dragged the Stoxx Europe 600 Index near to the cheapest valuation since 2008. Asian shares and U.S. index futures advanced. Cie. Financiere Richemont SA, owner of the Cartier watch brand, climbed 4.7 percent after revenue topped analyst estimates. Scor SE (SCR), France’s largest reinsurer, increased 1.6 percent after confirming targets. The Stoxx 600 rose 1.7 percent to 225.65 at 8:57 a.m. in London. The gauge has still tumbled 22 percent from this year’s high in February as concern grew that Europe’s debt crisis is harming the economic recovery. The decline cut the index’s valuation to 10.4 times reported earnings, near the cheapest since December 2008, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

FOREX-Dollar off two-month high, Swissie nurses losses
TOKYO, Sept 7 (Reuters) - The dollar came off a two-month peak against major currencies, pressured by a rebound in high-yielding currencies that tracked gains in stocks, while the yen rose after Tokyo refrained from easing its already loose monetary policy.
"The euro has to some extent been supported by slightly higher interest rates (in the euro zone), so any comments by (ECB President Jean-Claude) Trichet hinting at some form of easing would send the euro down towards $1.37," said Minori Uchida, senior analyst at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ.

China halts rare earth production at three mines
BEIJING, Sept 6 (Reuters) - China will halt production of rare earths at three major mines, state media reported on Tuesday, a move which could tighten supply in China, the top exporter of the valuable minerals.
Li Guoqing, the director of the mining management bureau of Ganzhou city in the eastern Jiangxi province, said on Monday that three of eight major rare earth producing counties would stop production by year-end, China's official English-language newspaper said.

China's nickel output seen at 440,000 T in 2011 - Jinchuan Group
SHANGHAI, Sept 7 (Reuters) - China's nickel output is expected to be 440,000 tonnes this year, an executive at the country's top nickel producer Jinchuan Group said on Wednesday.
Wu Jun, vice president at Jinchuan Group Ltd, made the comments to reporters on the sidelines of an industry conference.

China's 2011 steel output seen at 706 mln T - CISA
SHANGHAI, Sept 7 (Reuters) - Steel output in the world's top steel producer China is likely to hit a fresh record in excess of 700 million tonnes this year based on first-half production, a senior official with the China Iron & Steel Association (CISA) said on Wednesday.
"Based on steel production in the first half, China's steel output may reach 706 million tonnes and likely 710 million tonnes this year, but steel output growth is set to slow," Wang Xiaoqi, vice chairman of the China Iron & Steel Association, told an industry conference in Shanghai.

Brazil vows trade defense, targets Chinese steel
BRASILIA, Sept 6 (Reuters) - Brazil vowed on Tuesday to defend its domestic industry against unfair competition and  slapped import tariffs on select Chinese steel products.
It is the latest in a series of measures to defend struggling domestic manufacturers and help shield Latin America's largest economy from the fallout of global financial turmoil.

Italy 7-month steel output up 10.2 pct-Federacciai
MILAN, Sept 6 (Reuters) - Steel output in Italy, the European Union's second-biggest producer after Germany, rose 10.2 percent year-on-year to 17.313 million tonnes in the first seven months of 2011, industry body Federacciai said on Tuesday.
In July alone, Italy's steel output jumped 15.3 percent to 2.618 million tonnes, according to data published on Federacciai's website.

Vale in talks to sell mega iron ore vessels
LONDON, Sept 5 (Reuters) - Brazilian mining giant Vale  is in talks with Chinese and other ship owners to sell or lease its planned fleet of giant bulk carriers, a Vale official told Reuters on Monday.
The move comes less than three months after Vale's first iron ore carrier, at 362 metres long the world's largest dry-bulk vessel, failed to gain access to Chinese ports and was forced to divert to Italy on its maiden voyage.

China's power shortages hit Guizhou aluminium smelters
HONG KONG, Sept 6 (Reuters) - China's primary aluminium output may drop in September from a month ago as power shortages hit smelters in southwestern provinces of Guizhou and Guangxi, industry sources said on Tuesday.
Power supply to many aluminium smelters in Guizhou, which accounts for nearly 10 percent of the country's more than 21 million tonnes of annual aluminium smelting capacity, has been unstable since last week and local authorities have hoisted 'a red warning' on the supply, a smelter official said.

Brazil to double mine royalties in legal overhaul
BRASILIA, Sept 6 (Reuters) - Brazil's overhaul of its mining code will likely double average royalty rates for minerals, Mines and Energy Minister Edison Lobao said on Tuesday.
Previously Lobao had said the government was considering a proposal to increase royalties to an average of 4 percent from 2 percent, but that the issue was still being studied.

S.Africa Q2 gold output up 6.4 pct over pvs qtr
JOHANNESBURG, Sept 6 (Reuters) - South Africa's gold output in the second quarter of this year rose 6.4 percent to 47,563.6 kgs compared with the first quarter of 2011, the Chamber of Mines said on Tuesday.
Production usually rises in the April to June period despite a spate of public holidays as output in the first part of the year is constrained by the slow reboot after the Christmas holidays, when operations are shut.

METALS-Copper gains as supply fears offset global economy woes
JAKARTA, Sept 7 (Reuters) - Copper prices gained almost 1 percent after falling for three consecutive days as a series of labour disputes at mines threatened production and helped offset jitters about the health of the global economy.
"Up modestly," said David Thurtell, a Singapore-based metals analyst at Citigroup. "There are looming strikes at copper mines, but the macro side is likely to cap the complex for some time."

PRECIOUS-Spot gold tumbles 2 pct on technical selling
SINGAPORE, Sept 7 (Reuters) - Spot gold dropped 2 percent abruptly to as low as $1,826, nearly $100 off the all-time high above $1,920 hit in the previous session, tracking heavy losses on U.S. gold futures on technical selling, said traders.
"It was intra-day technical stops," said a Sydney-based trader. "It doesn't reflect any changes in fundamentals."

20110907 1706 Regional Markets EOD Daily Chart Study.

DJIA chart reading : side way range bound.
 Hang Seng chart reading :  side way range bound.
KLCI chart reading : correction range bound little downside biased.

20110907 1518 Global Market & Commodities Related News.

GLOBAL MARKETS-Asian stocks rebound but Europe fears still linger
SINGAPORE, Sept 7 (Reuters) - Asian stocks rebounded as investors hunted for bargains after the latest market slide, while the euro edged up against the dollar as traders covered some bets
"The stock market is rebounding after steep declines in recent days, but the situation has not changed and volatility remains high," said Korea Investment Trust Management fund manager Kim Young-il.

GRAINS-Corn, soy rise as US crops deteriorate; wheat firm
SINGAPORE, Sept 7 (Reuters) - Chicago corn and soybean futures rose , supported by deteriorating condition of the U.S. crops which is threatening to further tighten global supplies.
"I think the crop progress report is supporting prices as it has shown that the condition of U.S. crops is worsening," said Ker Chung Yang, an analyst at Phillip Futures in Singapore.

N Zealand 2012 cattle slaughter seen flat -attache
WASHINGTON, Sept 6 (Reuters) - Following are selected highlights from a report issued by a U.S. Department of Agriculture attache in New Zealand:
"The New Zealand slaughter number for 2012 is forecast at 3.9 million head, virtually unchanged from the 2011 estimate, and about 2 percent lower than the 2010 slaughter estimate. Total beef production in 2012 is forecast at 612,000 tonnes, up marginally from the estimated 610,000 tonnes produced in 2011, and down about 5 percent from the estimated 643,000 tonnes produced in 2010.

U.S. Gulf grain exports resume after Lee stoppage
CHICAGO, Sept 6 (Reuters) - Grain shipping at the U.S. Gulf Coast near New Orleans resumed on Monday following a three-day suspension as Tropical Storm Lee came ashore near the top U.S. grain export corridor, industry sources said on Tuesday.
Forecasts for heavy rain and likely flooding prompted grain export terminals along the Mississippi River to shutter operations ahead of the storm.

Brazil 2011/12 key cane region sugar exports seen at 21.1 MLN T
NEW DELHI, Sept 6 (Reuters) - Brazil's 2011/12 sugar exports from its center-south region are likely to be 21.1 million tonnes, analyst Datagro said on Tuesday, down from its Aug. 9 forecast of 22.35 million tonnes as it also cut its output estimate for the key sugar area.
Mounting worries over lower output in Brazil and China helped benchmark New York prices scale a six-month high at 31.85 cents per lb on Aug. 24 and October raw sugar futures on ICE  still remain within sight of that milestone.

Brent rises above $113 on lower U.S. crude stocks forecast
SINGAPORE, Sept 7 (Reuters) - Brent crude rose above $113 a barrel for the second consecutive day on expectations of lower U.S. crude stockpiles after a storm disrupted production in the Gulf of Mexico.
"The disruption to Gulf production is supporting prices, and with storms coming more often to the U.S., it could be a bullish factor until the end of hurricane season," said Tetsu Emori, a fund manager at Astramax Co. Ltd. in Tokyo.

Mexico's largest oil refinery halted due to outage
MEXICO CITY, Sept 6 (Reuters) - Mexico's largest oil refinery shut down on Tuesday after a power outage but the state oil monopoly Pemex  said it expects operations to resume by the end of the day.
The outage occurred at the 330,000 barrel-per-day capacity Salinas Cruz refinery in the southern state of Oaxaca forcing the company to shut down 26 processing plants for safety reasons, Pemex said in a statement.

Two reasons why Asia's still thirsty for crude: Clyde Russell
--Clyde Russell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.--
SINGAPORE, Sept 6 (Reuters) - Two seemingly unrelated bits of news on Monday show why there is hope that Asia's oil demand remains robust even as the global economic outlook darkens.
Firstly, Saudi Aramco saw fit to raise the premiums it will charge refiners in Asia for crude supplies for October, a sign the world's biggest oil exporter isn't too worried about slowing demand.

METALS-LME copper steady as looming strikes support
JAKARTA, Sept 7 (Reuters) - Copper prices rose almost 1 percent to snap a three-day slide, as a series of labour disputes threatened output and helped offset persistent worries about the health of the global economy.
Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange gained 0.6 percent to $ 8,982 a tonne by 0155 GMT, after falling in the previous session and closing 0.3 percent lower.

China seeks Japan tech in rare earth deals -media
TOKYO, Sept 7 (Reuters) - China told Japanese business leaders that it hoped their companies would bring technology to develop rare-earth products to China, while standing by its controversial decision to limit the metals' exports, Japanese media reported.
China produces more than 95 percent of the world's rare earth metals and its efforts to bring the sector under greater control, citing resource depletion and environmental degradation, have alarmed its overseas customers.

China nickel ore imports to slow in H2 vs H1 - Jinchuan exec
SHANGHAI, Sept 7 (Reuters) - China's nickel ore imports are expected to slow in the second half compared with the first, an executive at the country's top nickel producer Jinchuan Group told Reuters on Wednesday.
Wu Jun, Vice President of Jinchuan Group Ltd, did not elaborate.

China's 2011 steel output seen at 706 mln T - CISA
SHANGHAI, Sept 7 (Reuters) - Steel output in the world's top steel producer China is likely to hit a fresh record in excess of 700 million tonnes this year based on first-half production, a senior official with the China Iron & Steel Association (CISA) said on Wednesday.
"Based on steel production in the first half, China's steel output may reach 706 million tonnes and likely 710 million tonnes this year, but steel output growth is set to slow," Wang Xiaoqi, vice chairman of the China Iron & Steel Association, told an industry conference in Shanghai.

EU stockpiles rare earths to reduce reliance on China
BRUSSELS, Sept 6 (Reuters) - The European Union is stockpiling rare earth minerals, vital for many high-technology and defence industries, to reduce its dependence on dominant producer China, a spokesman for the EU industry commissioner said on Tuesday.  "We are stockpiling, to better profit from the material that we have in the EU," said Andrea Maresi, press officer for EU Industry Commissioner Antonio Tajani, adding: "We are trying to improve our sourcing and reduce our dependence on China."

Brazil vows trade defense, targets Chinese steel
BRASILIA, Sept 6 (Reuters) - Brazil vowed on Tuesday to defend its domestic industry against unfair competition and  slapped import tariffs on select Chinese steel products.
It is the latest in a series of measures to defend struggling domestic manufacturers and help shield Latin America's largest economy from the fallout of global financial turmoil.

China halts rare earth production at three mines
BEIJING, Sept 6 (Reuters) - China will halt production of rare earths at three major mines, state media reported on Tuesday, a move which could tighten supply in China, the top exporter of the valuable minerals.
Li Guoqing, the director of the mining management bureau of Ganzhou city in the eastern Jiangxi province, said on Monday that three of eight major rare earth producing counties would stop production by year-end, China's official English-language newspaper said.

PRECIOUS-Spot gold tumbles 2 pct on technical selling
SINGAPORE, Sept 7 (Reuters) - Spot gold dropped 2 percent abruptly  to as low as $1,826, nearly $100 off the all-time high above $1,920 hit in the previous session, tracking heavy losses on U.S. gold futures on technical selling, said traders.
"It was intra-day technical stops," said a Sydney-based trader. "It doesn't reflect any changes in fundamentals."

Swiss franc peg may unleash gold rally to $2,000/oz
LONDON, Sept 6 (Reuters) - Switzerland's decision to peg the erstwhile safe-haven franc to the euro may finally give gold bugs the chance to see prices hit the once-unimaginable $2,000 an ounce mark, as the metal holds on track for its strongest annual rally in three decades.
The Swiss National Bank shocked global markets on Tuesday by saying it would buy unlimited quantities of foreign currencies to prevent the franc from rising above 1.20 Swiss francs to the euro , as it fights to contain the meteoric rise of its currency that threatens its exports and economy.

China looks to save struggling shipping sector at any cost
SINGAPORE, Sept 6 (Reuters) - China's campaign to protect its maritime industry during a severe downturn will become more costly for foreign companies as Beijing grabs a bigger slice of the profits for shipping iron ore, coal and grains to the world's second largest economy.
China's shipping sector -- led by state-owned COSCO Group -- has become one of the world's most influential with its fleet more than doubling over the last decade, matching the country's appetite for commodities and raw materials.

20110907 1115 Global Market & Commodities Related News.

GLOBAL MARKETS-Asian stocks firmer but Europe fears still linger
HONG KONG, Sept 7 (Reuters) - Asian stocks snapped a three-day streak of losses on Wednesday as short-covering helped prop up benchmarks, and the euro edged up against the dollar as traders covered some bets against the common currency after a sharp overnight fall.  
"As long as we do not see a jolt in the foreign exchange market, short-covering may lift severely battered stocks such as exporters," said Yumi Nishimura, a senior markets analyst at Daiwa Securities. "U.S. ISM data should also help the mood."

Brent up on supply worry, US crude dips with equities
NEW YORK, Sept 6 (Reuters) - Brent crude rose on Tuesday, after three straight declines, as tight North Sea supplies, continuing uncertainty about Libya's oil and more tropical weather threats boosted prices.
"Libya's crude is still not in play and North Sea problems remain supportive for Brent, and U.S. markets are still playing catch-up after being shut," said Phil Flynn, analyst at PFGBest Research in Chicago.

Mexico's largest oil refinery halted due to outage
MEXICO CITY, Sept 6 (Reuters) - Mexico's largest oil refinery shut down on Tuesday after a power outage but the state oil monopoly Pemex  said it expects operations to resume by the end of the day.
The outage occurred at the 330,000 barrel-per-day capacity Salinas Cruz refinery in the southern state of Oaxaca forcing the company to shut down 26 processing plants for safety reasons, Pemex said in a statement.

NYMEX-Natural gas ends higher on another tropical stir
NEW YORK, Sept 6 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures rose nearly 2 percent on Tuesday, but remained under the key $4 per mmBtu level, as another stir in tropical activity kept traders cautious despite weaker cash gas and crude futures and moderate weather in consuming regions of the nation.
After some production cuts due to Tropical Storm Lee which hit the Gulf of Mexico last week, traders were keeping a close watch on three other low-pressure systems in the early stages of development late Tuesday.

Euro Coal-Steady, few trades seen
LONDON, Sept 6 (Reuters) - European prompt physical coal fell by around 50 cents a tonne on Tuesday for the second day running but such a small movement in prices was negligible, traders and European utilities said.
"It's very slightly weaker but it's quiet and prices are still in the same range," one trader said.

COMMODITIES-Gold hits record, then drops; crop markets slump
NEW YORK, Sept 6 (Reuters) - Gold closed lower on Tuesday as investors took profits after sending the precious metal to record highs in early trade when the Swiss National Bank set an exchange-rate cap on the soaring franc; while crop prices slid as the U.S. dollar rose.
"In theory, this could actually happen in a matter of days," said Frank McGhee, head of precious metals trading at Integrated Brokerage Services in Chicago.

20110907 1003 Global Economic Related News.

Asia Dragged Down by Europe’s Crisis Forced to Hold Rates as Prices Climb
(Source: Bloomberg)
Europe’s failure to end a deepening debt crisis and a faltering U.S. recovery are escalating the danger of a growth slowdown in Asia, putting pressure on central banks meeting this week to refrain from interest-rate increases. Central banks in South Korea, Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines will probably all keep their benchmark rates unchanged today, according to four Bloomberg News surveys of economists.

Swiss Pledge Unlimited Currency Purchases
(Source: Bloomberg)
The Swiss central bank imposed a ceiling on the franc for the first time in more than three decades and pledged to defend the target with the “utmost determination,” prompting a record drop in the currency.


Greece: Merkel said to tell CDU Greece must meet conditions for aid
German Chancellor Angela Merkel told members of her Christian Democrats that Greece will not receive aid payments due this month unless it meets conditions of the rescue, two party officials said. “It was very clear that we expect Greece to meet its obligations, that there can’t be more aid without adequate behavior by Greece,” Peter Altmaier, the chief whip for Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union, told reporters after the talks. “But it was also very clear that we stand by our commitments within the euro stabilization and that we’re ready to maintain and defend the euro as our common currency.” (Bloomberg)

EU: Economic recovery slows as governments cut spending
The euro area’s economic recovery lost momentum in the second quarter as governments imposed austerity measures in a bid to tackle the sovereign debt crisis. Gross domestic product expanded 0.2% in the quarter, in line with a 16 Aug estimate, after growing 0.8% in the previous period, the European Union’s statistics office in Luxembourg said. Government expenditures contracted 0.2% after growing 0.4% in the first quarter. Europe’s worsening debt crisis has prompted governments to deepen budget cuts, undermining consumer demand and clouding growth prospects. Investor confidence dropped to the lowest in more than two years in September and economic sentiment weakened last month. The European Central Bank’s so-called shadow council last week called on policy makers to reverse this year’s rate increases to prevent the economy from sliding into a recession. (Bloomberg)

US: Service industries unexpectedly expand at faster pace
Service industries unexpectedly expanded at a faster pace in August, easing concern the biggest part of the US economy was slumping. The Institute for Supply Management’s index of non- manufacturing businesses increased to 53.3 last month from 52.7 in July. Economists forecast the gauge would drop to 51, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey. A reading above 50 signals expansion. A pick-up among the non-manufacturing industries that account for about 90% of the economy shows the recovery may persist amid dimming job prospects and rising pessimism about the economic outlook. (Bloomberg)

US: Fed’s Kocherlakota says economy doesn’t need more stimulus
Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Narayana Kocherlakota said the US economy didn’t need additional stimulus in August and probably won’t require more easing this month. “The data in August did not justify the additional accommodation provided” by the central bank on 9 Aug, Kocherlakota said. “It is unlikely that the data in September will warrant adding still more accommodation.”Kocherlakota signaled reluctance to back more stimulus even after the Labor Department reported last week that the economy added no jobs in August and the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 9.1%. (Bloomberg)

US stocks fell, giving the S&P 500 Index its longest slump in almost a month, amid concern that Europe’s debt crisis is worsening. Equities pared losses in the final 30 minutes of trading. The benchmark measure trimmed its drop from 2.9% as companies most-tied to economic growth rebounded, propelling the Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index to a 0.2% gain for the day. Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase & Co. decreased more than 3.4% on concern about a global financial crisis. Exxon Mobil and Alcoa Inc. lost at least 1.3% on speculation that demand for commodities will slow. The S&P 500 lost 0.7% to 1,165.24 at 4 pm in New York. The benchmark gauge has fallen 4.4% in three days, the longest drop since 8 Aug. The Dow Jones slumped 100.96 points. (Bloomberg)

US: Obama said to plan more than USD300bn job-growth package
President Barack Obama plans to propose boosting job growth by injecting more than USD300bn into the economy next year mostly through tax cuts, infrastructure spending and direct aid to state and local governments. Obama would call on Congress to offset the cost of the short-term jobs measures by raising tax revenue in later years. This would be part of a long-term deficit reduction package, including spending and entitlement cuts as well as revenue increases, that he will present next week to the congressional super-committee charged with finding ways to reduce the nation’s debt. Almost half the stimulus would come from tax cuts, which include an extension of a two percentage point reduction in the payroll tax paid by workers due to expire 31 Dec and a new decrease in the portion of the tax paid by employers. (Bloomberg)

Sweden: Companies cheer currency cap after surge crimped profit
Swiss companies from knife-makers to cheese producers welcomed the central bank’s decision to halt the franc’s appreciation against the euro, which had left them struggling to compete and pushed investment abroad. The Swiss National Bank said yesterday it won’t tolerate an exchange rate below 1.20 francs per euro following the currency’s 13% gain against the euro this year. The benchmark Swiss Performance Index rose 4% as the Swiss currency posted a record drop against the euro. (Bloomberg)

20110907 1002 Malaysia Corporate Related News.

Boustead clarifies bid for Esso, refinery plan
Boustead Holdings said it indeed had submitted a bid to acquire ExxonMobil Corp's stake in Esso Bhd, and that it had no plans to shut down the Port Dickson, Negeri Sembilan refinery or lay off any staff if it had won the bid. In a statement to the stock exchange yesterday, Boustead said the bid was made on the basis of business continuity and the refinery would be operating as per usual. Boustead was responding to news reports which had cropped up in relation to the sale of ExxonMobil Corp's downstream assets in Malaysia to Philippine-based conglomerate San Miguel Corp last month. Boustead said certain information disclosed by US-based ExxonMobil during a press conference was inaccurate. The company said it had submitted a fair and competitive offer to ExxonMobil Corp in July for the downstream assets, namely 65% in Esso Malaysia Bhd, 100% shareholding in ExxonMobil Malaysia SB and 100% shareholding in ExxonMobil Borneo SB. (BT)

HLBB rights issue at RM8.65 each
Hong Leong Bank (HLBB) has fixed the issue price for its proposed rights issue at RM8.65 per rights share. This represents a discount of 30.3% to the five-day volume weighted average market price of HLBB shares up to 5 Sept this year of RM12.41 and 26.6% to the theoretical ex-rights price of HLBB shares of RM11.78 (based on the 5-day VWAMP). HLBB said the rights issue will be carried out on a basis of 1-for-5 HLBB shares held. (Financial Daily)

SC scrutinising Sime’s purchase of E&O stake
The Securities Commission (SC) is “examining the circumstances of the transaction” involving Sime Darby buying a 30% stake in Eastern & Oriental (E&O), the regulator said in an email reply to questions from StarBiz. The SC also said that the premium paid by Sime Darby for the 30% in E&O “is one, among several factors, which the SC will take into consideration in deciding whether an acquirer has obtained control of a company, as provided by Para 6.2 of Practice Note 9 of the Takeover Code 2010”. Questions have been raised as to whether Sime Darby will be required by the SC to launch a mandatory general offer (MGO) for the remaining shares in E&O. (StarBiz)

Alam Maritim inks charter agreement
Alam Maritim Resources Bhd's subsidiary, Alam Maritim SB, has signed a Charter Party Agreement with ExxonMobil Exploration and Production Malaysia Inc (EMEPMI) for the provision of an accommodation vessel and an Anchor Handling Tug. The Contract is for a primary period of three years with an extension option exercisable by EMEPMI for another two years. "The Contract is for a value of up to RM220.83m (if EMEPMI engages the vessel and tug for the full duration - inclusive of optional period)," Alam Maritim said in a filing to Bursa Malaysia. The Contract is expected to positively contribute to the earnings and net assets of Alam Maritim for the financial year ending 31 Dec 2011 and beyond. (Bernama)

Taliworks gets RM339m dam contract
Taliworks Corp has secured a RM339m sub-contract from China International Water and Electric Corp SB (CWEM) to undertake the Mengkuang Dam expansion project in Penang. In a filing with Bursa Malaysia yesterday, it said the sub-contract involved earthworks for the construction of the dam, draw-off tunnel and others over 60 months. The completion is scheduled for 31 July 2016. The Mengkuang Dam expansion, a Federal Government project, was earlier awarded to CWEM by the Energy, Green Technology and Water Ministry. (StarBiz)

RHB Cap delays application to buy Bank Mestika
RHB Capital (RHB Cap) has put on hold its application to acquire Indonesia's PT Bank Mestika Dharma pending a review by Indonesia's central bank to impose a limit on single-party ownership in commercial banks there. “It is too early for us to comment further at this stage as there is no clarity on the outcome of the new ruling. “We continue to closely monitor the developments,” RHB Cap told StarBiz. RHB Cap's decision to put on hold its proposed buy of Bank Mestika comes amid Bank Indonesia's plans to limit single-party ownership in commercial banks to not more than 50%. However, this is still at the assessment stage. RHB Cap had earlier stated its intention to buy 80% in Bank Mestika for RM1.16bil. (StarBiz)

RHB Bank looks for new chief by year-end
RHB Bank is on the lookout for a new managing director (MD) now that Renzo Viegas, its principal officer that was to have been the MD, intends to take time off from the country's fifth largest banking group. Sources said a potential candidate is likely to be finalised soon, possibly in the next two to three weeks, and will likely be appointed before the year-end if the central bank had no objections to the candidate. "They'll look for a Malaysian, and it'll most probably be from outside the group," one of them said. RHB Bank, in a press statement, said it had withdrawn an earlier application to Bank Negara Malaysia to appoint Viegas as managing director following his intention to take time off for personal matters next year. He will however continue to be the principal officer of the bank, pending the appointment of the new chief executive officer/ managing director. (StarBiz)

US based company seeks US$80m damages from MAS
US-based GIRO-Warranty House International, Inc. is seeking US$80 million (RM238.4 million) in damages from MALAYSIAN AIRLINE SYSTEM BHD (MAS). MAS said on Tuesday, Sept 6 it was served with a complaint in the US District Court for the Northern District of Oklahoma on Aug 22. “GIRO – Warranty House International, Inc. alleges breach of contract and fraudulent misrepresentation and seeks damages of up to US$80 million,” it said. MAS said it was reviewing the complaint with the assistance of external counsel. (Source: The Edge)

20110907 0951 Global Market Related News.

GLOBAL MARKETS - Swiss strike blow against fear flows
LONDON, Sept 6 (Reuters) - Switzerland's central bank turned the tables on Tuesday on investors who have driven up the franc, sinking it nearly 9 percent to the euro, while European stocks eked out some gains after sharp losses a day earlier.
"One will think twice about speculating against this target because the SNB is with its back against the wall," said Alessandro Bee, economist at Bank Sarasin.

Asia Hurt by Europe Crisis Forced to Hold Rates (Source: Bloomberg)
Europe’s failure to end a deepening debt crisis and a faltering U.S. recovery are escalating the danger of a growth slowdown in Asia, putting pressure on central banks meeting this week to refrain from interest-rate increases. Central banks in South Korea, Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines will probably all keep their benchmark rates unchanged tomorrow, according to four Bloomberg News surveys of economists. World Bank President Robert Zoellick said yesterday the world is “moving into a dangerous period” as stocks extended a slump that has wiped $6.6 trillion off global equity values in the three months ended Sept. 5. Inflation may limit the scope for stimulus in Asia as expansions slow from China to Malaysia.

Asian Stocks Gain on Japanese Exporters (Source: Bloomberg)
Asian stocks gained as Japanese shares jumped after the yen weakened versus the dollar, boosting the outlook for exporters, and after Greece pledged to accelerate austerity measures to help solve Europe’s debt crisis. Toyota Motor Corp. (7203), the world’s biggest carmaker, advanced 1.9 percent in Tokyo. Samsung Electronics Co., a South Korean exporter of consumer electronics that counts Europe as its third-largest market for sales, increased 3 percent. BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP), the world’s No. 1 mining company, advanced 3 percent after oil and copper prices rose. Hyundai Motor Co. increased 2.3 in Seoul after saying it plans to expand its European market share. “Stocks should be bought back as the yen’s appreciation is taking a pause,” said Hiroichi Nishi, an equities manager in Tokyo at SMBC Nikko Securities Inc. “Price-to-book ratio shows stocks are cheap, and technical indicators are also showing equities are approaching a buy zone.”

Obama Said to Plan More Than $300B Jobs Package (Source: Bloomberg)
President Barack Obama plans to propose boosting job growth by injecting more than $300 billion into the economy next year mostly through tax cuts, infrastructure spending and direct aid to state and local governments. Obama would call on Congress to offset the cost of the short-term jobs measures by raising tax revenue in later years. This would be part of a long-term deficit reduction package, including spending and entitlement cuts as well as revenue increases, that he will present next week to the congressional supercommittee charged with finding ways to reduce the nation’s debt. Almost half the stimulus would come from tax cuts, which include an extension of a two percentage point reduction in the payroll tax paid by workers due to expire Dec. 31 and a new decrease in the portion of the tax paid by employers.

U.S. Economy ‘Unlikely’ to Need Additional Easing, Fed’s Kocherlakota Says (Source: Bloomberg)
Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Narayana Kocherlakota said the U.S. economy didn’t need additional stimulus in August and probably won’t require more easing this month. “The data in August did not justify the additional accommodation provided” by the central bank on Aug. 9, Kocherlakota said today in a speech in Minneapolis. “It is unlikely that the data in September will warrant adding still more accommodation.” Kocherlakota signaled reluctance to back more stimulus even after the Labor Department reported last week that the economy added no jobs in August and the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 9.1 percent. His speech is similar to remarks he delivered last week in Bismarck, North Dakota.

U.S. Service Economy Unexpectedly Grows at Faster Pace in ISM August Index (Source: Bloomberg)
Service industries unexpectedly expanded at a faster pace in August, easing concern the biggest part of the U.S. economy was slumping. The Institute for Supply Management’s index of non- manufacturing businesses increased to 53.3 last month from 52.7 in July. Economists forecast the gauge would drop to 51, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey. A reading above 50 signals expansion. A pickup among the non-manufacturing industries that account for about 90 percent of the economy shows the recovery may persist amid dimming job prospects and rising pessimism about the economic outlook. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said last month that the economy will probably improve in the second half of this year.

‘Helicopter Ben’ May Deter Lending With Lower Rates Policies, Gross Says (Source: Bloomberg)
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke risks causing a decline in longer-term lending by holding down benchmark interest rates, Bill Gross, who runs the world’s biggest bond fund at Pacific Investment Management Co., said in an opinion piece on the Financial Times website. If the Fed seeks to drive down longer-maturity yields, as some are anticipating, then the central bank may “destroy leverage and credit creation in the process,” Gross wrote in the piece, which was titled ‘Helicopter Ben’ Risks Destroying Credit Creation.’

Hedge Funds’ Bets on S&P 500 Futures Are Most Bearish Since September 2007 (Source: Bloomberg)
Bearish bets by investors using Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures increased to the highest level in almost four years amid concern global economic growth is stalling. Hedge funds and other large speculators were net short 107,913 contracts in the week ended Aug. 30, wagering that the S&P 500 will decrease in value, according to data compiled by Bloomberg and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The position is the highest since September 2007, when bearish bets reached a record 127,474 contracts a month before the benchmark equity gauge peaked at an all-time high, Bloomberg data going back to 1997 show. “If they’re global macro funds, they may be doing this because they think risk is to the downside in the S&P 500,” Michael Purves, chief market strategist at BGC Partners LP in New York, said in a telephone interview. “The long/short hedge funds may also be shorting futures simply to hedge out single stock longs.”

Stocks in U.S. Drop on Euro Zone Debt Crisis; S&P Pares Loss in Final Hour (Source: Bloomberg)
U.S. stocks fell, giving the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index its longest slump in almost a month, amid concern that Europe’s debt crisis is worsening. Equities pared losses in the final 30 minutes of trading. The benchmark measure trimmed its drop from 2.9 percent as companies most-tied to economic growth rebounded, propelling the Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index to a 0.2 percent gain for the day. Bank of America Corp. (BAC) and JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) decreased more than 3.4 percent on concern about a global financial crisis. Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) and Alcoa Inc. (AA) lost at least 1.3 percent on speculation that demand for commodities will slow. The S&P 500 lost 0.7 percent to 1,165.24 at 4 p.m. in New York. The benchmark gauge has fallen 4.4 percent in three days, the longest drop since Aug. 8. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slumped 100.96 points, or 0.9 percent, to 11,139.30 today.

Bernanke Saw ‘Manageable’ Europe Debt Exposure (Source: Bloomberg)
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke told two lawmakers in mid-July that U.S. financial companies’ exposure to Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis is “manageable.” Analyses by Fed banking supervisors suggest that “in general, institutions’ direct net exposures to Greece, Ireland and Portugal, including to the banks domiciled there, are manageable relative to their capital,” Bernanke said in identical letters to the Republican senators, Tom Coburn of Oklahoma and Bob Corker of Tennessee. The comments, dated July 14, were obtained today by Bloomberg News in Washington. The senators wrote to Bernanke on June 16, citing a report by the Bank for International Settlements showing almost $200 billion in exposure at U.S. financial firms to the debt of Greece, Ireland and Portugal. Since Bernanke’s response, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index has tumbled more than 10 percent in part on investor concern that Europe’s debt crisis will worsen.

Japanese Stocks Rebound as Yen Declines Before G-7 Meeting; Honda Advances (Source: Bloomberg)
Japanese stocks rebounded from the lowest close since 2009 after the nation’s currency fell to a four-week low versus the dollar as the government said it will lobby Group of Seven officials to support a weaker yen. Honda Motor Co., a carmaker that gets 83 percent of its revenue abroad, rose 1.6 percent. Canon Inc. (7751), the world’s biggest camera maker, climbed 1.3 percent. Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd., Japan’s third-largest shipper by market value, rose 3.3 percent after Credit Suisse started coverage of the sector with a rating of “outperform.” The Nikkei 225 (NKY) Stock Average rose 1.6 percent to 8731.62 as of 9:07 a.m. in Tokyo after ending at 8,590.57 yesterday, its lowest close since April 28, 2009. The broader Topix index gained 1.3 percent to 750.56.

Swiss Open New Round in Currency Wars Ignited by Global Economic Slowdown (Source: Bloomberg)
Switzerland opened a new round in a global currency war as fading economic growth forces policy makers to step up efforts to spur expansion. The Swiss National Bank’s decision yesterday to cap the franc’s rate for the first time since 1978 marked a bid to protect trade hurt by the currency that last month reached a record high against the euro and the dollar. The franc plunged 8.4 percent against the euro, the most since the creation of Europe’s single currency, to 1.203 at 5:15 p.m. in London. The initiative may leave Norway and Sweden vulnerable to unwanted gains in their currencies as countries such as Brazil and Japan fight to limit appreciation amid a flight from the euro debt crisis and near-zero interest rates in the U.S. With Group of Seven finance chiefs set to hold talks this week, it also exposes the clash among policy makers counting on exports to offset slumping demand at home.

European Banks Under Assault in Markets That Remind Ackermann of Late 2008 (Source: Bloomberg)
Three years after the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., financial shares in Europe are under assault, the cost of insuring bank debt is at records, and bankers see worrying parallels to that time. A Bloomberg index of European financial stocks fell as much as 2.9 percent to the lowest level since March 2009, while a measure of banks’ reluctance to lend to each other was at the highest since April of that same year. The chief executive officer of Deutsche Bank AG (DBK), Josef Ackermann, said yesterday market conditions remind him of late 2008, and urged lawmakers to act to avoid a repeat of the financial crisis, which spawned the worst global recession since the Great Depression. Investors drove yields higher on the bonds of Greece, Portugal, Spain and Italy yesterday on doubts Europe’s leaders will be able to stop the sovereign debt contagion.

European Stocks Retreat to Two-Year Low After Debt-Crisis Concern Deepens (Source: Bloomberg)
European stocks declined for a third day, reaching the lowest in more than two years, as deepening concern that the region’s debt crisis will derail the recovery overshadowed better-than-estimated growth in U.S. services. UniCredit SpA (UCG) and Societe Generale SA fell more than 4 percent as a gauge of banks slid to the lowest level since March 2009. Caja de Ahorros del Mediterraneo (CAM), the Spanish savings bank taken over by the Bank of Spain, slumped 8.4 percent after posting a loss. Bayer AG (BAYN) plunged 7.5 percent after U.S. regulators asked for more data on the blood thinner Xarelto. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index slid 0.7 percent to 221.98 at the 4:30 p.m. close in London after earlier climbing as much as 1 percent. The gauge has tumbled 7.1 percent over the past three days, falling to the lowest close since July 2009.

U.K. Stocks Rise as Whitbread, Fresnillo Climb; Barclays Falls (Source: Bloomberg)
U.K. stocks advanced for the first time in three days as shares of Whitbread Plc (WTB) and Fresnillo Plc (FRES) rallied. Whitbread paced advancing shares after reporting an acceleration in sales growth. Fresnillo advanced 3.9 percent. Barclays Plc and Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc (RBS) limited gains in the benchmark FTSE 100 Index (UKX), falling more than 2 percent. The FTSE 100 Index gained 54.26, or 1.1 percent, to 5,156.84 at the 5:30 p.m. close in London, after tumbling 5.8 percent over the previous two trading days amid concern that global growth is slowing as Europe’s debt crisis spreads. The FTSE All-Share Index (ASX) gained 0.9 percent today, while Ireland’s ISEQ Index was little changed.

Europe steadies after day of turmoil
LONDON, Sept 6 (Reuters) - European financial markets steadied, with the euro jumping against the Swiss franc, after a sharp sell-off a day earlier due to fears for the euro zone's future and that of its banking sector.
"These persistent euro zone worries are back in play once again amidst signs that austerity measures may be faltering, whilst last Friday's disappointing (U.S.) non-farm payrolls (data) continue to leave the markets with something of a hangover," said Cameron Peacock, analyst at IG Markets.

RBA’s Stevens Signals Willingness to Keep Australia Interest Rates on Hold (Source: Bloomberg)
Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens signaled a willingness to keep interest rates on hold while the nation’s consumers retrench and global financial markets create instability for the “foreseeable future.” “Periods of sudden increases in anxiety within international financial markets are moments when, if at all possible, it is good to be in a position to be able to maintain steady settings,” he said in prepared remarks today in Perth. In his speech, Stevens said households watching global and local events “may continue their precautionary behavior for longer than otherwise” and help weaken demand compared with the central bank’s August forecasts. “If so, that may act to curtail the upward trend in inflationary pressures that has, up to this point, appeared to be in prospect,” he said.

Yields Drop as Europe to Damp Slowest Growth in 20 Years: Australia Credit (Source: Bloomberg)
Australian benchmark government bond yields slid to the lowest since 2009 on concern contagion from Europe’s debt crisis will undermine a national economy analysts say is growing at the slowest annual pace in 20 years. Five-year government debt yielded 3.77 percent, 11 basis points less than one-year securities, the biggest discount since September 2008, after the Reserve Bank of Australia held the developed world’s highest key interest rate unchanged at 4.75 percent yesterday. The 10-year note’s yield fell to 4.21 percent, the lowest closing level since March 20, 2009.
Australia’s growth outlook looks “somewhat weaker” in the near-term and “at trend or higher” longer term, absent a deterioration in global prospects, RBA Governor Stevens said yesterday. The economy grew 0.7 percent in the three months ended June 30 from a year earlier, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists before today’s report, the least since it shrank in 1991. Swaps traders are wagering the RBA will make the steepest reductions to its key rate among the Group of 10 currencies, according to Credit Suisse Group AG indexes.

October Rate Cut Prediction Shows U.S. Slump Spilling Over: Mexico Credit (Source: Bloomberg)
Mexico will follow Brazil and Turkey in cutting interest rates next month to help shield the economy from a slowdown in the U.S., swaps trading shows. Yields on futures contracts for October, known as TIIE, sank nine basis points in the past month to 4.73 percent, indicating traders expect central bank Governor Agustin Carstens to lower the benchmark 4.5 percent rate when the board meets Oct. 14. Those wagers signal a reversal for traders who expected as recently as Aug. 25 that Carstens’s next move would be to raise borrowing costs from a record low.
Concern the U.S. and Europe may be headed for recessions is prompting investors to anticipate developing countries will lower rates to shore up growth. Mexico’s central bank, the only among major Latin American countries to hold off on raising rates as the global economy recovered from the 2008 financial crisis, said Aug. 26 it would consider “adjusting” policy if the growth outlook worsened. Employment unexpectedly stagnated in the U.S., Mexico’s biggest trade partner, last month.

FOREX - Swiss franc dives as SNB sets target rate
LONDON, Sept 6 (Reuters) - The Swiss franc plummeted versus the euro and dollar on Tuesday after the Swiss National Bank set a minimum exchange rate target of 1.20 francs per euro to combat the strength of the Swiss franc which it says poses a risk to the economy.
"Our model suggests a minimum rate of 1.25 in euro/Swiss is needed to ward off a deflationary threat, which suggests we could see a move to 1.25-1.30 over the next month, maybe sooner," said Gavin Friend, currency strategist at National Australia Bank.

20110907 0950 Global Commodities Related News.

Corn (Source: CME)
US corn futures finished lower, but pare losses ahead of the close of trading as lingering concerns about crop damage from hot, dry weather this summer helped the market rebound. The USDA next week will likely follow the lead of private forecasters by cutting its output estimates and is expected to lower its rating for the crop in a report due later Tuesday. As of the rating update, Alan Brugler of Brugler Marketing & Management says traders didn't want "to be leaning the wrong way if it's a bigger drop than expected." CBOT December corn ended down 4 1/4c at $7.55 3/4 a bushel.

Wheat (Source: CME)
US wheat futures fell, pressured by the rising US dollar and concerns about waning demand. The stronger currency makes US grains less attractive to foreign buyers at a time the country already faces increased competition for wheat sales from the Black Sea region. Egypt, typically the world's top wheat importer, issued a tender to buy wheat after the close of trading, traders say. The country has been buying Russian wheat recently and snubbing the US. CBOT December wheat closed down 15 1/2c at $7.60/bushel while KCBT December dropped 14 1/2c to $8.65 1/2 and MGEX December declines 11c to $9.31 3/4.

Rice (Source: CME)
Rice futures finished weaker with wheat, corn and soybeans as rising US dollar makes US commodities less attractive to foreign buyers. Traders were reducing risk in commodity and equity markets due to worries about a global economic slowdown. Rice market showed little reaction to private firm Informa pegging US output at 185M hundredweight, down from USDA's August estimate of 188.1M. CBOT November rice slides 25c to $17.97 1/2/hundredweight

US corn, wheat slide over 1 pct on Europe worries
SINGAPORE, Sept 6 (Reuters) - U.S. corn and wheat futures slid around 1 percent while soybeans lost 1.4 percent amid fears that worsening Europe's sovereign debt troubles could trigger a full-blown banking crisis.
"Losses in the Chicago grain and oilseed complex are following the risk activity that we saw in London and European markets," said Luke Mathews, a commodity strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

Thailand sees higher rice output, despite floods
BANGKOK, Sept 6 (Reuters) - Thailand, the world's biggest rice exporter, was expected to produce more rice in the current 2011/12 crop despite being hit by storm and floods in the past few months, a senior agriculture official said on Tuesday.
"The latest forecast after floods showed that we could produce 25.1 million tonnes of paddy from the major crop which is due to be harvested in November," Apichart Jongsakul, head of the Office of Agriculture Economy, told Reuters.

French maize crop seen set for record yield
PARIS, Sept 5 (Reuters) - The maize grain harvest in France is expected to produce a record average yield of around 10 tonnes per hectare, technical institute Arvalis said on Monday.
High expected yields reflected early sowing and regular rain during the second half of the growing season, Jean-Paul Renoux, Arvalis' head of maize, told Reuters.

Britain's wheat crop quality seen above average
LONDON, Sept 5 (Reuters) - Initial results suggest Britain's wheat crop is better quality than last season and the three-year average, the Home-Grown Cereals Authority (HGCA) said on Monday issuing provisional results of a cereal quality survey.
The results from 18,000 wheat samples collected up to August 31 show specific weights, Hagberg falling numbers and protein content all above last season.

Ukraine grain crop at 34.9 mln T from 74 pct areas
KIEV, Sept 5 (Reuters) - Ukrainian farms have harvested 34.9 million tonnes of grain from 74 percent of the sown area as of September 5, the Agriculture Ministry said on Monday.
The ministry said in a report the grain yield averaged 3.03 tonne per hectare against 2.48 tonne at the same date in 2010.

Russia grain crop up on year with 56 pct harvested
MOSCOW, Sept 5 (Reuters) - Russia harvested 64.6 million tonnes of grain by bunker weight by Sept. 1, up from 43.3 million tonnes a year ago and 64.4 million tonnes by the same date in 2009, Agriculture Ministry data showed on Monday.
Grain has been harvested from 24.8 million hectares, or 56.3 percent of the harvesting area of 44.1 million hectare, the ministry said in a statement.

Informa Cuts US Corn, Soybean Outlooks (Source: CME)
Informa Economics made another cut to its outlook for the U.S. corn and soy harvests due to poor weather, according to traders. The closely-watched crop forecaster lowered its estimate for the corn harvest to 12.711 billion bushels from 13.353 billion bushels forecast in August and 13.759 billion bushels projected in July, traders said. The firm cut its yield estimate for the crop to 151 bushels an acre from 158 bushels an acre in August and 162.5 bushels an acre in July, they said. The forecasts remai higher than recent estimates from other forecasters. Brokerage firm Allendale on Tuesday pegged the corn harvest at 12.466 billion bushels, with an average yield of 147.7 bushels an acre, while INTL FCStone last week projected farmers will harvest 12.35 billion bushels of corn, with an average yield of 146.3 bushels an acre. Grain traders are paying close attention to private estimates due to uncertainty about the impact of hot, dry weather on the corn crop.
Farmers need to harvest a large crop to prevent low inventories from becoming significantly tighter. "Informa's corn yield at 151 wasn't down the tubes like everybody else," said Sid Love, analyst for Kropf & Love Consulting, an agricultural advisory firm in Kansas. Informa lowered its estimate for the soybean harvest to 3.061 billion bushels from 3.139 billion bushels in August and 3.203 billion bushels in July, traders said. It pegged the average yield at 41.5 bushels an acre, down from 42.5 bushels per acre in its August projection and 43.1 bushels per acre projected in July. In August, the USDA projected corn output at 12.914 billion bushels, with a yield of 153 bushels an acre, and soybean output at 3.056 billion bushels, with a yield of 41.4 bushels an acre. The government is slated to update its forecasts Monday. Informa's estimates represent what it expects USDA will report Monday and its outlooks for "final harvest at this juncture," according to the firm.
"Generally warm and dry conditions stressed the filling of both corn and soybeans," Informa said in a report. Informa also issued estimates for other crops. It pegged rice output at 185 million hundredweight, down from USDA's August estimate of 188.1 million hundredweight. Informa estimated cotton output at 17.467 million bales, up from USDA's August estimate of 16.55 million bales, and predicted the government will increase its estimate for cotton plantings by 930,000 acres to 14.66 million acres. Informa's estimate is "the highest number you're going to see" for cotton, said independent analyst Mike Stevens, who said most investors will likely pay more attention to Monday's USDA report. He added the Informa forecast was "not a market event." The USDA's monthly supply-and-demand report Monday is expected to have a bigger impact on the cotton market. Yet, even that number will be up for debate, as federal forecasters continue to assess the impact of Hurricane Irene and Tropical Storm Lee on crops.

IGC Launches Daily Index To Track Volatile Food Prices (Source: CME)
The International Grains Council has introduced a daily grains and oilseeds index, in a sign that the need for a reliable tool to track the current volatility in food prices continues to be extremely high. Food price inflation has been a key concern for most Asian governments and many are caught between the difficult choice of tightening monetary policy to rein in inflation and keeping it loose enough to sustain growth amid increasing signs of another global slowdown. The index was earlier published once every week. The increase in the frequency is a signal that market participants don't expect the current volatility in prices to abate anytime soon despite bumper grains and oilseeds production from recent crops, fuelled mainly by the higher returns enjoyed by farmers as prices remain stubbornly high. London-based IGC is an inter-governmental group for cooperation in grains trade.
According to its latest forecast, global grains production will rise 3.4% in 2011-12 to hit a record 1.81 billion metric tons but will still lag consumption marginally. That could mean continued volatility in prices as even a small supply disruption could tilt the balance in the market, forcing market participants to take cover. Weekly and monthly indices are useful, but don't account for day-to-day price swings that have become more significant of late, said IGC's senior economist, Darren Cooper. Of the many food indices in the public domain, very few are available on a daily basis, he noted. In addition to collecting and recording the prices, IGC takes a view on prices based on a plethora of information, Cooper said. IGC's index, which was launched in March this year, stood at 294 points on Sept. 1, a 3% increase since the launch, despite consistent gains in production across the globe.
Analysts attribute this to rising global demand, restrictions paced on exports by key producing countries such as India, sharp increase in government's support prices for local farmers in Thailand and unusually dry weather in the U.S., the world's largest exporter of agricultural commodities. The index provides a broad measure of food market conditions on a daily basis and is a useful tool if one wants a quick view of the current situation, Cooper said. IGC compiles futures and physical export prices for eight individual commodities--wheat, corn, rice, barley, sorghum, soybeans, soymeal and rapeseed--at 22 origins worldwide. Each commodity is assigned a weighting based on the five-year average of its globally traded volume. The weightings will be reviewed each January.

Food Market Regulation Not Viable - FAO (Source: CME)
Commodity market regulation is not a viable long-term option to combat the fundamental problems affecting the world agricultural sector, a senior executive of United Nations' food body said Tuesday. Ann Tutwiler, deputy director-general of the Food and Agriculture Organization, said this year's surge in food prices has been driven by a "mismatch between supply and demand" that will only be solved by increasing investment in agriculture. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries "doesn't even do a great job of managing oil prices and they are dealing in a non-renewable resource," she told Dow Jones Newswires. "Market regulation, to regulate prices, I just don't think is a viable option over the long term." How far financial speculators are responsible for swings in commodities prices has become a topic of hot debate this year after food prices spiked to record highs for the second time in four years, sparking protests across the Arab world and other developing countries.
French President Nicolas Sarkozy, who blames speculative investors for the sharp rise, placed regulation at the top of the agenda for his leadership of the Group of 20 nations, but as yet no political consensus has been reached on how to better manage volatile commodity markets. "I don't see any way that the [agricultural] sector is not going to be vulnerable to external commodity markets but it's about how you manage that," said Tutwiler. In June, agriculture ministers for the G20 gathered here for an unprecedented meeting to address food price volatility. Although they put forward no concrete proposals to improve regulation, they did announce plans to create a global system to monitor crop production and stock levels, to be overseen by the FAO. Critics say in countries like China or Russia--both of which play an increasingly important role in world agricultural markets--monitoring output is virtually impossible due to the disparate nature of production.
But Tutwiler said the FAO has both the resources and expertise to build such a system. "The reality is that we know, because we have satellite that can tell us how much people are producing," she said. "We have a lot more access to information than governments often have that doesn't get used as it's not reported through government channels." Her comments come as agricultural experts have gathered at the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development in Paris to develop a more sustainable agricultural production system. Fundamental to the debate is how to meet growing world food consumption--the FAO predicts output will need to rise 70% by 2050 to meet demand--without contributing to climate change. Tutwiler said that improving technology will be key to improving output in the future and all possibilities, even the controversial topic of genetically modified crops, shouldn't be taken off the table.
"Technology is the only way we've increased production over the past 50 years and it's the only way we're going to do it in the future," she said. "With the challenges we're facing in terms of food production I don't think we should reject any particular technology out of hand."

Pacific Neutral But La Nina Possible In 2011 (Source: CME)
A return to a La Nina climate event is still possible this year, but for now most oceanic and atmospheric indicators of such events are around neutral levels, the government's Bureau of Meteorology reported Tuesday. The latest weekly data showed some sea surface temperatures are cooler than normal, the coolest since February but still within neutral thresholds, while trade winds are slightly stronger-than-normal in the western Pacific and cloudiness near the International Date Line has been below-average for the past two weeks, the bureau reported. "Both of these indicators and the cooling of the ocean, are consistent with the possibility of La Nina developing later in the year," the bureau said in a weekly tropical climate note. That said, most international climate model forecasts of El Nino and La Nina events show neutral conditions are likely to continue into the southern hemisphere spring, it said. The bureau's Southern Oscillation Index measured +5.3 in the 30 days ended Sept. 4, up from +2.1 in August.
Sustained positive values above +8 of the SOI may indicate a La Nina, while sustained negative values below -8 may indicate an El Nino. Values between about +8 and -8 generally indicate neutral. Typically, El Nino conditions result in below-average rainfall over much of eastern Australia while La Nina results in above-average rainfall over most of the continent.

Soybean Futures in Chicago Gain by 0.2% to $14.2475; Corn, Wheat Advance (Source: Bloomberg)
Soybeans for November delivery rose 0.2 percent to $14.2475 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade at 9:11 a.m. Melbourne time. Corn for December delivery advanced 0.2 percent to $7.5725 a bushel. December-delivery wheat gained 0.4 percent to $7.6275 a bushel.

Corn, Soybeans, Wheat Drop on Signs Weaker Economy Will Curb Crop Demand (Source: Bloomberg)
Corn, soybean and wheat futures fell on speculation that Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis will hinder the global economy, reducing demand for food, livestock feed and fuel made from crops. The Standard & Poor’s GSCI Index of 24 raw materials dropped as much as 2.1 percent, and global equity markets fell. Josef Ackermann, the chief executive officer of Deutsche Bank AG, said that market conditions remind him of late 2008, which preceded the deepest global economic slump since the 1930s. The U.S. is the world’s top exporter of corn, soybeans and wheat. “Increasing European debt problems depressed commodity demand,” Greg Grow, the director of agribusiness at Archer Financial Services Inc. in Chicago, said in a telephone interview. “Fear and a lack of confidence in governments to address their debt problems and revive economies are reducing speculative buying.”

Coffee, sugar fall after U.S. holiday
LONDON, Sept 6 (Reuters) - ICE coffee, sugar and cocoa futures fell early adjusting to Liffe markets after the U.S. Labor Day holiday, with expectations of a large Vietnamese robusta crop weighing on arabicas.
ICE arabica coffee futures fell in early trading as the market readjusted to Liffe after the closure of U.S. trading on Monday for the Labor Day holiday.

Vietnam Coffee-Sept exports seen up, discount widens
HANOI, Sept 6 (Reuters) - Vietnam's coffee exports could rise this month to meet loading demand under existing deals and supplies would be added with a bumper harvest expected to start next month, as the country grapples with shipment delays, traders said on Tuesday.
The Southeast Asian country's thinning coffee stock following strong sales in early 2011, which contributed to pushing domestic prices beyond London futures prices in recent months, have led to delays and defaults by exporters and raised concern among foreign buyers.

China's sugar arrivals seen at 600,000 T in Sept-trade
SINGAPORE, Sept 6 (Reuters) - More than half a million tonnes of sugar, mostly from Brazil, are expected to arrive in China in September as the country rebuilds stocks after a prolonged drought hit its main growing region, dealers estimated on Tuesday.  
China's sugar demand could outpace output by more than 2 million tonnes in the year to September 2012 after the drought dried up supplies and forced Beijing to release stocks to cool record high prices, a Reuters poll showed.

Drought continues in China's southwest sugar area
BEIJING, Sept 6 (Reuters) - China's agriculture ministry said some 3.23 million hectares of crops were suffering from ongoing drought conditions in the country's southwest, the main sugar-growing region, with no letup in the dry, hot weather.
The ministry said the damage to grains was limited as of Sept. 5 and affected northern parts of the Guangxi region -- which accounts for 60 percent of China's sugar output -- eastern Yunnan province, most areas of Guizhou and parts of Chongqing and Sichuan.

Rains boost Ivorian cocoa, though disease a worry
ABIDJAN, Sept 5 (Reuters) - Good rains with average spells of sunshine last week in Ivory Coast's cocoa growing regions may strengthen the forthcoming 2011/12 main cocoa crop in western regions, farmers said on Monday.
But black pod fungal disease was spreading and threatening crops in the east, they said.

India's Oct-Sept 2 coffee exports jump 35.7 pct on year
MUMBAI, Sept 5 (Reuters) - Coffee exports from India during October-Sept. 2 jumped 35.7 percent on year to 335,315 tonnes, helped by increased shipments to Italy and Germany, the state-run Coffee Board said in a statement on Monday.
India, the world's fifth biggest producer, accounts for only 4.5 percent of the world's coffee output, but exports 70 to 80 percent of this. Italy, Russia and Germany are the top three buyers of Indian coffee.

Brazil 2011/12 key cane region sugar exports seen at 21.1 MLN T
NEW DELHI, Sept 6 (Reuters) - Brazil's 2011/12 sugar exports from its center-south region are likely to be 21.1 million tonnes, analyst Datagro said on Tuesday, down from its Aug. 9 forecast of 22.35 million tonnes as it also cut its output estimate for the key sugar area.
Mounting worries over lower output in Brazil and China helped benchmark New York prices scale a six-month high at 31.85 cents per lb on Aug. 24 and October raw sugar futures on ICE  still remain within sight of that milestone.

Czarnikow sees sugar surplus 4-5 mln t 2011/12
LONDON, Sept 5 (Reuters) - Trade house Czarnikow's head of research Toby Cohen on Monday forecast a global sugar surplus of around 4-5 million tonnes in 2011/12.
"We're roughly in line with where most of the market is coming in at the moment, which is around a 4-5 million tonne surplus," Cohen told Insider television in an interview, coinciding with Czarnikow's 150th anniversary celebrations.

Brazil Secretary: 2011-12 Sugar Output Likely To Fall (Source: CME)
Sugar production in Brazil, the world's top producer, is likely to fall to 37.07 million metric tons in the crop year that started April 1, the country's national secretary of production and agroenergy said Tuesday. Brazil is estimated to have produced 38.17 million tons in 2010-11, Monoel Vicente F. Bertone told an industry conference. "We have droughts last year, and this year we have a lot of frosts," he said. The country's sugarcane output is likely to fall to 588.92 million tons in 2011-12 from 623.72 million tons, he added. Bertone said the production of ethanol in the South American country is also falling because of the lower availability of sugarcane. Sugar prices are rising faster than ethanol, which is tempting millers to produce more of the sweetener. Separately, Datagro president Plinio M. Nastari said Brazil's ethanol production in 2011-12 is expected to fall to 22.6 billion litres from 27.4 billion litres last year.

Coal Exports From South Africa’s Richards Bay Climbed 28% in August (Source: Bloomberg)
Richards Bay Coal Terminal, Africa’s largest coal terminal, said August shipments rose 28 percent from a year earlier as prices for the fuel increased. Shipments from the east coast facility rose to 6.99 million metric tons from 5.45 million tons a year earlier, RBCT said in a statement published on its website today. Coal stocks dropped 5.4 percent to 4 million tons as of Aug. 31 from a month earlier. Terminal owners including Anglo American Plc (AAL), BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP) and Xstrata Plc (XTA) saw coal prices jump 34 percent to an average $118.02 a ton in August from $88.15 a year earlier, according to IHS McCloskey data on Bloomberg.

Indian Oil says needs to raise gasoline prices
SINGAPORE, Sept 6 (Reuters) - State-run Indian Oil Corp  said local gasoline prices need to be raised as revenue losses from selling the fuel at government controlled rates have widen more than seven-fold this month, head of finance P.K. Goyal said on Tuesday.
Revenue losses on gasoline sales now stand at about three rupees (6 U.S. cents) compared to about 0.41 rupees a litre in the fortnight ending Aug. 31 due to an increase in Singapore spot prices of the fuel, he said.

Brent crude rises over $111 on stimulus hopes
LONDON, Sept 6 (Reuters) - Brent crude oil rose above $111 per barrel on Tuesday as expectations of a U.S. economic stimulus outweighed fears of recession and worries over the euro zone debt crisis.
"Prices are being supported by hopes there will be another economic stimulus," said Carsten Fritsch, commodities analyst at Commerzbank in Frankfurt. "But there is a big risk to the downside in this market. The economy is slowing and it is not clear how the United States will pay for another stimulus."

Iran restores fuel oil export vols from Oct-loading
SINGAPORE, Sept 6 (Reuters) - Iran's October fuel oil exports are expected to return to normal levels, with at least five low-density cargoes, totalling about 400,000 tonnes, scheduled for delivery into East Asia, traders said on Tuesday.
The National Iranian Oil Co (NIOC) has returned to full allocations of its straight-run 280-centistoke (cst) cargoes, for October-loading from Bandar Mahshahr to all its term buyers in both East Asia and the Middle East.

Oil Gains on Forecast Supply Drop; Weather System Builds in Gulf of Mexico (Source: Bloomberg)
Oil advanced from the lowest in more than a week in New York amid signs of shrinking crude stockpiles in the U.S. and speculation a storm building in the Gulf of Mexico posed a threat to supply in the world’s biggest consumer of the commodity. West Texas Intermediate gained as much as 0.7 percent. An Energy Department report tomorrow may show inventories declined 2.25 million barrels last week as Tropical Storm Lee shut production in the gulf, a Bloomberg News survey of analysts showed. Another disturbance in Mexico’s Bay of Campeche has a 40 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm, according to the National Hurricane Center. “When production is withdrawn the price will naturally want to rise,” said David Lennox, a resource analyst at Fat Prophets in Sydney. “Unless there is significant damage to fields it won’t be long-term. We are looking for WTI to trade within the $80 to $90 range per barrel.”

Gold May Decline for a Second Day After Rally to Record Encourages Sales (Source: Bloomberg)
Gold may fall for a second day as some investors sell the metal to lock in gains and cover losses in other markets after the metal surged to an all-time high above $1,920 an ounce. Gold for immediate delivery traded at $1,874.47 an ounce at 7:31 a.m. in Singapore, after earlier shedding as much as 0.4 percent to $1,867.57. Bullion, which touched a record $1,921.15 yesterday, may also decline as the dollar climbed for a sixth time yesterday against a six-currency basket including the franc after the Swiss central bank set a ceiling on the exchange rate. Gold futures for December delivery were little changed at $1,874 an ounce, after touching an all-time high of $1,923.70 yesterday on the Comex in New York.
The move by the Swiss National Bank is ultimately “bullish for gold as it reduces the number of safe haven currencies available to investors,” James Steel, an analyst at HSBC Securities USA Ltd., wrote in a note. Still, “we expect high prices to deter jewelry and other noninvestment physical demand and to increase scrap supply. Further equity declines may lead to gold liquidation, should investors decide to raise cash.”

20110907 0948 Soy Oil & Palm Oil Related News.

Soybeans (Source: CME)
US soybean futures slid, fueled by investors reducing risk exposure amid global economic fears. Soybean futures have seen a lot of investment fund buying in recent weeks, a feature leaving the market vulnerable to a downside correction. Industry analysts are concerned about soybean demand holding up in the face of a struggling world economy, particularly with US dollar rallying. "Traders are not as confident of eroding soybean yields, but are confident that higher prices are eroding demand, said Mike Zuzolo, president Global Commodity Analytics and Consulting. CBOT Nov soy dropped 23 1/4c to $14.22 1/2/bushel.

Soybean Meal/Oil (Source: CME)
Soy product futures dropped in unison with soybeans, succumbing to broader-based weakness. Fear of a global economic slowdown hurting world demand for protein helped pin prices in negative territory, analysts say. Dec soymeal dropped 2.5% to $375.20/short ton, and Dec soyoil fell 0.4% to 58.04c/lb.

Palm oil at near two-week low on economic concerns
KUALA LUMPUR, Sept 6 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures fell to their lowest in almost two weeks as investors fretted over the worsening euro zone debt crisis that could put the brakes on economic growth and commodity demand.
"After a few months of strong exports, we expect the buying trend to slow a little. And of course, all eyes are on the debt crisis in Europe and the U.S. as this could slow economic growth," said a trader with a foreign commodities brokerage.

Brazil 11/12 soy crop seen at 75.2 mln T-Celeres
SAO PAULO, Sept 5 (Reuters) - Brazilian grains analysts Celeres said on Monday it expects the country's 2011/2012 soy crop to reach a record high 75.2 million tonnes, the same forecast as in August.
If confirmed, the crop will beat last year's 74.9 million tonnes, the current record. The total area planted with soybeans is also expected to rise in the 2011/2012 crop year.