Tuesday, April 12, 2011

20110412 1837 FCPO EOD Daily Chart Study.

FCPO closed : 3373, changed : -44 points, volume : higher.
Bollinger band reading : side way range bound little upside biased.
MACD Histrogram : turned lower, buyer taking profit.
Support : 3350, 3300, 3270, 3250 level.
Resistance : 3420, 3450, 3470, 3500 level.
Comment :
FCPO closed recorded losses with higher volume transacted while soy oil overnight closed much lower surrendered previous day gains and currently trading lower. News wise, vegetable oil industry expert Dorab Mistry forecasting and near term lower palm oil price movement due to substantial increase of production level and price may rise later subject to U.S. raise the use of biofuel due to burdening crude oil prices.
Daily chart formed a small body up doji bar candle positioned little above of middle Bollinger band support level after market opened gap down, traded within a 43 points range bound market and closed little above opening price.
Reading remained suggesting a side way range bound little upside biased market development testing support and resistance level. Purely technical speaking, market could be having a break up or break down from the plotted triangle area. On the other hand factor to closely monitor will the be huge discount on palm oil compare to soy oil price.
When to buy : buy at support or weakness with quick cut loss and profit target.
When to sell : sell at resistant or strength with quick cut loss and profit target.

20110412 1754 FKLI EOD Daily Chart Study.

FKLI closed : 1520.5 changed : -15.5 points, volume : higher.
Bollinger band reading : correction range bound little biased.
MACD Histrogram : getting lower, buyer leaving as seller taking small exposure.
Support : 1515, 1500, 1485, 1470 level.
Resistance : 1530, 1540, 1550, 1565 level.
Comment :
Severe injury FKLI closed recorded losses for the 3rd day with increasing volume participation doing more than 5 points discount compare to cash market while regional market traded lower as negative sentiment accelerate after IMF cuts U.S. and Japan growth outlook.
Daily chart formed a wide down bar candle closed below middle Bollinger band support level after market opened little lower, traded range bound before slide lower to closed near the low of the day.
Technical reading adjusted to suggesting a correction range bound little upside biased market development testing support and resistant level with MACD indicator almost having a negative cross down.
When to buy : buy at support or weakness with quick cut loss and profit target.
When to sell : sell at resistant or strength with quick cut loss and profit target.

20110412 1549 Global Market & Commodities Related News.

Oil slumps, Asia stocks fall in retreat from risk
SINGAPORE, April 12 (Reuters) - Crude oil prices retreated from a 32-month high on Tuesday and probably would extend declines through the day, with investors taking profits as equity markets fell and the U.S. dollar rebounded.
"I am absolutely on the side where I expect oil to come down," said Brynjar Bustnes, head of regional oil and gas for  Asia-Pacific at J.P. Morgan in Hong Kong.

Oil extends losses, high prices may hurt demand
TOKYO, April 12 (Reuters) - U.S. crude dropped by $2 a barrel on Tuesday and Brent crude fell sharply to below $122, extending overnight losses on concern high fuel prices will destroy demand and as Goldman Sachs advised investors to lock-in commodity trading profits.
"Open interest has been building up since the start of the new quarter in April, reflecting fresh inflows of speculative money into the oil market," said an energy analyst at a leading Japanese trading house who declined to be named.

Corn rises on tight supplies, soy toppled
CHICAGO, April 11 (Reuters) - U.S. corn futures notched another record high on Monday as strong demand across the livestock, ethanol, export and investment sectors faced the tightest stocks since the 1930s.
"Funds keep building a longer position in corn. If there are any issues in the upcoming planting season it will be pretty explosive; with stocks the way they are we can't have a hiccup," said Dan Dempsey, an analyst for Iowa Grain.

China sells 99,700 T rapeseed oil reserves ahead of lower harvest
BEIJING, April 12 (Reuters) - China sold all 99,700 tonnes of rapeseed oil offered from state reserves at regular auctions on Tuesday, as the domestic market braces for lower rapeseed output ahead of the harvest next month.
Trading volumes and average prices were both higher than the previous sale. Traders were expecting that China's rapeseed output may fall as much as 20 percent this year from last year's 13.15 million tonnes. Tuesday's volume was sold at an average price of 9,600 yuan ($1,468) per tonne, 4 percent lower than physical prices .

Argentine Feb soy crushing up 43.9 pct vs Feb 2010
BUENOS AIRES, April 11 (Reuters) - Argentine soy crushing increased 43.9 percent in February from February 2010, to 2.02 million tonnes, thanks to a record 2009/10 crop, the government said in its latest monthly report.
Argentina is the world's top supplier of soyoil and soymeal and the third-biggest exporter of unprocessed beans.

USDA raises US sugar imports in 2011, prices rise
NEW YORK, April 11 (Reuters) - The U.S. Agriculture Department said on Monday it will increase sugar imports in fiscal 2011, giving the raw sugar market a mild boost as the trade mulled where the sweetener would come from.
The USDA said the extra imports will offset domestic sugar cane lost in Florida in January, when a hard freeze hit the state.

Copper drops as Goldman view, Japan weighs
SINGAPORE, April 12 (Reuters) - Shanghai copper fell more than half a percent on Tuesday, tracking a pullback in London prices, as a recommendation from long-term commodity bull Goldman Sachs to close long positions in the metal and an escalating nuclear crisis in Japan weighed.
"The copper market is certainly feeling the impact from the Goldman Sachs report, especially at a time when high prices are mostly supported by investment interest but not real consumption," said a Shanghai-based trader.

Gold falls nearly 1 pct on oil, silver off 31-year peak
SINGAPORE, April 12 (Reuters) - Gold slipped nearly 1 percent on Tuesday, hovering below a record high and silver was off a 31-year peak hit in the previous session after long-term commodity bull Goldman Sachs advised investors to lock-in trading profits before oil and other markets reverse.
"Some people may take profits and reduce positions. Everybody knows that Goldman Sachs recommends to reduce positions. That's why the market is a bit scared," said Dick Poon, manager of precious metals at Heraeus in Hong Kong.

20110412 1111 Global Market & Commodities Related News.

GLOBAL MARKETS: Crude oil slumps, Asian energy stocks follow suit
SINGAPORE, April 12 (Reuters) - Crude oil prices retreated from a 32-month high on concerns the spurt in fuel costs may threaten the nascent global economic recovery, dragging down Asian resource-related stocks in early trade on Tuesday.
The yen and U.S. dollar found some reprieve as demand for red-hot commodity currencies like the Australian dollar waned, but dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials may limit the greenback's upside potential.

OIL: Brent, U.S. oil drop more than $1.50 a barrel on Goldman market view
TOKYO, April 12 (Reuters) - Brent and U.S. crude fell more than $1.50 a barrel on Tuesday in Asian trade as long-term commodity bull Goldman Sachs advised investors to lock-in trading profits before oil and other markets reverse.
Brent crude fell as low $121.97 a barrel while U.S. crude dropped to a low of $108.15 a barrel.

NATURAL GAS: Natgas snaps losing streak, rebounds off 3-1/2-week low
NEW YORK, April 11 (Reuters) - Front-month U.S. natural gas futures ended higher on Monday for the first time in seven sessions, backed by cooler weather forecasts and technical buying after a six-day slide despite still-high supplies.
"The market was due for a little short-covering. The East looks a little cooler, but I don't think it's significant. I don't see a lot of weather demand right now," a West Coast trader said.

EURO COAL: June ARA trades at $129.25/T, up 75 cents
LONDON, April 11 (Reuters) - European physical coal prices rose by around 75 U.S. cents a tonne on Monday, despite a fall in oil prices and a lack of demand for spot coal across most of Europe.
"There doesn't seem to be much logic to coal at the moment. There's a lot coming into Europe, almost nobody's buying, but the market keeps going up," one trader said.

COMMODITIES: Pull back from peaks as Goldman says take profits
LONDON/NEW YORK, April 11 (Reuters) - Gold, copper and oil pulled back from new peaks on Monday as a failed peace plan to halt Libya's civil war stirred hope for an eventual resolution and analysts at Goldman Sachs recommended taking profits.
"Although we believe that on a 12-month horizon the CCCP basket (including copper and crude oil) still has upside potential, in the near term risk-reward no longer favors being long the basket," Goldman's commodity research team, led by London-based Jeffrey Currie, said in a note.

Goldman spooks oil speculators with call to take profit
NEW YORK, April 11 (Reuters) - Long-term commodity bull Goldman Sachs  warned clients on Monday to lock-in trading profits before oil and other markets reverse, with the bank's estimates suggesting speculators are boosting crude prices as much as $27 a barrel.
Traders said the call from one of the biggest banks in commodities contributed to a near 3 percent slide in U.S. oil futures , on expectations the bank's numerous clients could close out positions with U.S. crude prices up 20 percent for the year so far.

Fed to stick with low rates, despite oil price rise
NEW YORK, April 11 (Reuters) - Two of the Federal Reserve's most powerful officials said on Monday the U.S. central bank should stick to its super-easy monetary policy, arguing inflation is not a threat and unemployment remains too high.
Underlying U.S. inflation trends are subdued and long-term price expectations are contained, despite rising commodity costs, Janet Yellen, the Fed's influential Vice Chair, told the Economic Club of New York.

Inflation, oil prices create new challenges - IMF
WASHINGTON, April 11 (Reuters) - Soaring oil prices and inflation in emerging economies pose new risks to global recovery but are not yet strong enough to derail it, the International Monetary Fund said on Monday.
The global lender's latest health-check of world economic prospects marked a departure from recent years when its focus was on the financial crisis and recession in rich nations.

20110412 0944 Local & Global Market Related News.

Malaysia: February IPI lifted by manufacturing and electricity output
Lifted by increases in manufacturing and electricity output, Malaysia's industrial production index (IPI) expanded 5% in February from a year ago after gaining a revised 0.5% year on year (y-o-y) in the preceding month. According to the Department of Statistics, manufacturing output rose 7.9% y-o-y, while electricity output rose by a marginal 0.7% y-o-y in February. The increase in manufacturing output was attributable to increases in the following groups - petroleum, chemical, rubber and plastic products (17.1% yoy); non-metallic mineral products, basic metal and fabricated metal products (26.3% y-o-y); and food, beverages and tobacco products (10.1% yo- y). (StarBiz)

China: More rate rises likely in 2011
China will likely raise interest rates again this year in an effort to cool inflation and lift negative real interest rates, Chinese newspapers reported yesterday, citing two central bank advisers. Xia Bin, an academic adviser on monetary policy committee of the People’s Bank of China (PBoC), said China cannot rule out the possibility of raising rates again this year, the Shanghai Securities News reported yesterday. (Financial Daily)

China: China may reduce export rebates for some metals, securities says
China’s Ministry of Finance is considering a reduction of export rebates for some aluminum and stainless steel products, the China Securities Journal reported today, without citing anyone. Export rebates for some aluminum products may be reduced to 9% from 13%, the newspaper reported. The entire 5% export rebate for stainless steel products may be removed, according to the report. (Bloomberg)

US/Japan: IMF cuts US, Japan growth outlook, German official says
The International Monetary Fund has lowered its forecast for economic growth in the US amid rising commodity prices and downgraded its outlook for Japan after the earthquake and tsunami, a German government official said. Deficit reduction strategies in the US and Japan lack credibility, the IMF said in its World Economic Outlook, the German official told reporters in Berlin yesterday on condition of anonymity because the report will be published in Washington later yesterday. The IMF, which forecast 3% US growth this year in January, left its latest projection for global growth unchanged, the German official said, without giving time-frames. (Bloomberg)

Oceanic: Australia, N.Z. Disasters Slow GDP Before Rebound, IMF Says
Australia and New Zealand will grow at a slower pace than previously forecast this year as floods and earthquakes disrupt their economies before higher investment spurs expansions in 2012, the International Monetary Fund said. Australia’s gross domestic product will increase 3% in 2011, half a percentage point lower than an October estimate, the IMF said in its semi-annual World Economic Outlook. New Zealand’s GDP will rise 0.9%, down from last month’s prediction of 1% and last year’s 3.2%, it said. (Bloomberg)

Global: Oil-price risk threatens stronger recovery, IMF says. The threat of further oil-price increases has become a "key downside risk" for global growth, compounding the difficulties posed by overheating in emerging economies and persistent unemployment in developed nations, the International Monetary Fund said. The recovery is "stronger" and the world economy will expand 4.4% this year and 4.5% in 2012, the Washington-based IMF said in its World Economic Outlook report, leaving forecasts from January "nearly unchanged." The IMF raised its oil-price prediction to USD 107.16/bbl in 2011 from USD 89.50/bbl in January. (Source: Bloomberg)

U.S: IMF predicts slower growth on oil, pace of job gains. The worlds largest economy will expand 2.8% this year, down from the 3% projected in January, the IMF said, citing the need to reduce deficits and boost exports. (Source: Bloomberg)

India: Industrial production growth unexpectedly decelerates in February. Output at factories, utilities and mines rose 3.6% YoY after a revised 3.95% YoY gain in January. (Source: Bloomberg)

Taiwan: Exports increased faster than estimated in March, bolstering the central banks case to increase borrowing costs further. Shipments abroad increased 16.7% YoY compared with 27.3% YoY in February. Imports also rose 16.7% YoY for a trade surplus of USD 1.77b. (Source: Bloomberg)    

20110412 0941 Malaysia Corporate Related News.

 KLCI chart reading :
correction range bound upside biased.

Najib to announce Felda’s USD215m sugar IPO
Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak is set to announce today the IPO of the Federal Land Authority’s sugar refining arm, which would raise about USD215m (RM649m), a source with direct knowledge on the matter said. The listing of Malayan Sugar Manufacturing will be announced at the Invest Malaysia conference, the source said. He said Felda will be selling about 25%-30% of Malayan Sugar. (FinancialDaily)

Notion VTec confirms buyout interest
Notion VTec has confirmed that a third party has approached its controlling shareholders to acquire the entire business or equity stake in the company. While Notion’s controlling shareholders have not received any definitive proposals, the negotiations are ongoing and the company would make the announcements when necessary. It did not name the third party or the controlling shareholders that were approached on the deal. (FinancialDaily)

MAA Holdings seeks BNM nod on stake sale
MAA Holdings (MAAH) has applied to Bank Negara for approval to proceed with discussions to sell its life and general insurance businesses to Zurich Insurance. The composite insurance business is held under MAAH’s wholly-owned Malaysian Assurance Alliance (MAA). Money raised from a successful sale of MAA is expected to be partly used to expand MAAH’s growing Islamic insurance or takaful business. News reports had put a RM1.2bn figure to the MAA franchise. (Malaysian Reserve)

UMW: Expects oil & gas unit to be back in the black. UMW Holdings Bhd is confident that its oil and gas division will be back in the black this year, helped by several jobs it has secured. The company is banking on the performance of associate company WSP Holdings Ltd in China, its success in securing a drilling job from Petronas Carigali and expectations of a bigger revenue contribution from its foreign joint ventures, especially those in India and China. (Source: Business Times)

Westports: Container handling Up 20% In 1Q. Westports Malaysia Sdn Bhd posted a 20% growth in container handling for the first quarter this year compared with the same period last year. Westports container throughput was 1.5m twenty-foot equivalent unit (TEU), the highest ever quarterly achievement compared with 1.2m TEUs in the same period last year. (Source: Bernama)

Sagajuta: To unveil RM2b projects. Sagajuta (Sabah) Sdn Bhd, a pioneer developer in Sabah is launching four commercial projects worth almost RM2b this year, as demand for the properties increases, its chief said. They include the abandoned commercial project in Selangor, called 1Gateway Klang, which its unit, Lagenda Erajuta Sdn Bhd, has taken over and is reviving this month. The three new projects are located in Kota Kinabalu, Bukit Mertajam in Penang and Johor Baru, launching in phases from the end of this year. The projects will comprise modern shoplots, office towers, street mall and leisure facilities. (Source: Business Times)

Coastal: Secures deal to sell 11 tugboats. Coastal Contracts Bhd won contracts for the sale of 11 tugboats to a company based in Central America for about RM61m. Including the new contracts, the group to date has about RM665m worth of vessel sales orders awaiting delivery to customers up to 2012. (Source: Business Times) 

Harbour-Link clinches RM75m jobs
Harbour-Link Group’s wholly owned subsidiary Harbour-Link Logistics has clinched contracts worth RM75.2m. The subsidiary has accepted two letters of acceptance from Bintulu Port Holdings for the supply, delivery, testing and commissioning of eight rubber-tyred gantry cranes and two Panamax class gantry cranes. The contracts are for a 12-month period, which is expected to commence by April. (FinancialDaily)

Puncak Niaga seeks waiver talks
Puncak Niaga has decided to negotiate with some of its bondholders after a total of RM982.9m of its debt papers’ credit rating fell below the minimum level allowed. Puncak Niaga had decided to call for a bondholders meeting to seek for certain waivers from the bondholders to address the current situation. The downward rating by MARC had resulted in the rating of some of the group’s debt to fall below the minimum required under their respective trust deeds. (Malaysian Reserve)

Axiata seeks to buy back shares
Axiata Group has proposed to buy back its shares in a bid to prop up its valuations that would result in its major shareholder, Khazanah Nasional’s, stake rise to about 51% from 41%. Axiata has also proposed, on behalf of Khazanah, an exemption from the obligation to undertake a mandatory takeover offer on the remaining shares in Axiata it does not already own. The maximum amount of shares that Axiata can buy back is 844.5m, including those granted under its existing employee share option scheme. The buyback will be financed through internally generated funds depending on the availability of funds, but not exceeding in aggregate of the retained earnings of RM5.7bn and share premium accounts of RM1.9bn. (Malaysian Reserve)

20110412 0929 Soy Oil & Palm Oil Related News.

International Edible Oil and Oilseed Conference, China, Beijing :

Dorab Mistry : -
  • Cash soy oil will go to a premium of almost $200/tonne to palm olein around August (Premium now at $59). 
  • Chicago soy oil may rise towards 70 cents/pound on expectations of higher U.S. biofuels output.
  • Palm Oil may rally towards RM4,000 in 2011 after soy oil use in the U.S. biofuel gets "substantially raised"
  • Malaysian palm oil futures to fall below RM3,000 support level on higher output forecast.

20110412 0914 Global Market Related News.

 DJIA chart reading : correction range bound upside biased.

 Hang Seng chart reading : pullback correction upside biased. 

Yellen Says Commodity-Price Rise Doesn’t Warrant Policy Shift (Source: Bloomberg)
Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Janet Yellen said the increase in food and fuel costs will have only a temporary impact on inflation and consumer spending and warrants no reversal of record monetary stimulus.

IMF Cuts 2011 U.S. Growth Forecast on Oil, ‘Lackluster’ Pace of Job Gains (Source: Bloomberg)
The International Monetary Fund lowered its forecast for U.S. growth this year, predicting higher oil prices and the pace of job gains will restrain the recovery.

U.S. Stocks Decline as Energy Shares Retreat Amid IMF Forecast (Source: Bloomberg)
U.S. stocks fell, sending the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index down for a third day, after oil dropped from a 30-month high as the International Monetary Fund cut its growth forecast for the world’s largest economy.

Dollar May Rise Versus Euro on Interest Rate Outlook, UBS Says: Tom Keene (Source: Bloomberg)
The dollar may gain this year as faster-than-expected growth and inflation in the U.S. force the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy, according to UBS AG. Sentiment towards the dollar, especially among Asian investors, will improve once the Fed ends its $600 billion asset-purchase program in June, said Mansoor Mohi-Uddin, Singapore-based chief currency strategist at UBS AG. He declined to say when he expects the Fed to start raising interest rates. The dollar has fallen 7.3 percent against the euro this year.

China Inflation Is `Somewhat Out of Control’ on Weak Currency, Soros Says (Source: Bloomberg)
China’s decision to keep its currency weak has caused the government to lose control of inflation and risks fuelling wage-price gains, billionaire investor George Soros said. While the policy helped insulate China from the financial crisis in 2008, the world’s second-biggest economy has missed its chance to allow the yuan to appreciate to tame inflation, Soros, chairman of Soros Fund Management LLC, said yesterday at a conference in Bretton Woods, New Hampshire.

Japan May Raise Nuclear Accident Rating as Radiation Increases (Source: Bloomberg)
Japan’s nuclear crisis may be raised to the highest level of severity, matching Chernobyl’s rating, as increasing radiation prompts the government to widen the evacuation zone and as aftershocks rocked the country.

Yen Rises Versus Major Counterparts After Quake Shakes Buildings in Tokyo (Source: Bloomberg)
The yen rose against most of its major counterparts after an earthquake shook buildings in Tokyo.

Sentance Says Markets Signal BOE Benchmark Rate Increasing to 2% Next Year (Source: Bloomberg)
Bank of England policy maker Andrew Sentance signalled he voted for a half-point U.K. interest-rate increase again last week and said that financial markets suggest benchmark borrowing costs could reach 2 percent next year.

IMF, EU Officials Meet in Lisbon to Plan $116 Billion Portuguese Bailout (Source: Bloomberg)
International Monetary Fund, European Commission and European Central Bank officials will be in Lisbon today as they start preparing an estimated 80 billion- euro ($116 billion) aid program for Portugal, the third euro- region nation to request a bailout in less than a year.

Industrial Output Growth in India Unexpectedly Slows to 3.6% in February (Source: Bloomberg)
India’s industrial production growth unexpectedly slowed in February, a deceleration that may be insufficient to stop the central bank from raising interest rates further. Output at factories, utilities and mines rose 3.6 percent from a year earlier after a revised 3.95 percent gain in January, the government said in a statement in New Delhi today. The median estimate of 30 economists in a Bloomberg News survey was for a 5.1 percent increase.

New Zealand Boom Driving Up Currency, May Quicken Inflation, Bollard Says (Source: Bloomberg)
New Zealand’s economy will get a boost from higher farm export prices that will underpin the nation’s currency and may feed inflation expectations which the central bank would need to counter, Reserve Bank Governor Alan Bollard said.

FOREX-Expectations of rising rates to propel euro higher
NEW YORK, April 8 (Reuters) - Expectations interest-rate differentials will widen further in Europe's favor should buoy the euro against the dollar next week, while investors will closely watch U.S. inflation data that could help shape Federal Reserve monetary policy.
The euro rose to a 15-month peak versus the dollar on Friday, on pace for a gain of 1.7 percent this week. The prospect of a U.S. government shutdown, which would idle about 800,000 federal government workers and put a crimp in the economic recovery, weighed on the dollar.  

20110412 0859 Global Commodities Related News.

Corn (Source: CME)
US corn futures close near record highs, with nearby contracts leading gains on strong demand. Weekly export inspections for the period during which prices eclipsed previous 2008 all-time highs were nearly unchanged from the previous week. Prices need to climb to curb demand for dwindling supplies, analysts say. "Evidence of a slowdown in corn consumption is still needed," notes University of Illinois agricultural economist Darrel Good. Poor weather threatens to delay planting of the next crop. CBOT May corn jumps 8c to $7.76 a bushel.

Wheat (Source: CME)
Most US wheat futures close lower on profit-taking after surging 20% since mid-March on weather threats and spillover support from the surging corn market. Market participants unwound profitable long KCBT/short CBOT wheat spreads, which helped underpin CBOT wheat, traders say. Yet, dry weather in the US Plains continues to threaten the upcoming harvest. Analysts expect USDA to cut its condition rating for winter-wheat in a weekly progress report Monday. CBOT May wheat rises 3/4c to $7.98 1/4 a bushel; KCBT May drops 13 3/4c to $9.19; MGE May loses 17 1/2c to $9.35 3/4.

Rice (Source: CME)
US rice futures rise as the market continues to recover from recent selling that pulled prices to their lowest level in more than a week. Talk of improved demand adds some support, an analyst says. Market participants continue to project Japan will increase rice imports following the recent earthquakes and tsunami. CBOT May rice finishes up 3 1/2c, or 0.3%, at $13.72 per hundredweight.

India's Government Wheat Procurement Up To April 10 Slumps - Executive (Source: CME)
India's wheat purchases for government stocks crashed to less than a fourth of last year's level in more than three weeks of procurement, a Food Corp. of India executive said, even as state-run warehouses face a storage space crunch. Food Corp. bought 915,282 tons of wheat until April 10 since procurement started on March 15, down from 3.78 million tons a year earlier, as late sowing delayed the harvest in the country's grain bowl northern region, said the executive, asking not to be named. The country expects wheat output to hit an all-time high of 84.27 million tons in the crop year through June, bringing to the fore the inadequate storage space issue that forced the government last year to keep some stocks out in the open and resulted in mounds getting washed away by monsoon rains. Farm Minister Sharad Pawar said last week the government should seriously consider lifting a wheat export ban as well as building up storage capacity because of the record wheat crop.
India, the world's second-largest wheat grower, has maintained the ban on the grain's export since 2007 to keep local supplies steady. Industry executives said the government has deliberately slowed its grain purchases in the northern states of Haryana and Punjab as the granaries are nearly full from previous purchases, although food ministry officials deny any significant space problem. Wheat is usually sown from October, but planting was delayed by around a month in some regions this crop year through June due to unseasonal rains. Harvest of the new wheat crop in northern regions has just started and is likely to peak from mid-April. The storage squeeze may get tighter as a small quantity of rice is also harvested in winter, although the main crop is produced in summer. The government mainly uses the stocks to supply its welfare programs for the poor, but the reserves also give it room to curb prices by increasing subsidized grain sales in the market.

Oil Falls for a Second Day After IMF Cuts Growth Forecasts for U.S., Japan (Source: Bloomberg)
Oil declined for a second day after the International Monetary Fund cut its growth forecasts for the U.S. and Japan, saying high crude prices pose a risk to global economic expansion.

Gold Falls on Investor Sales After Rally to Record; Silver Approaches $42 (Source: Bloomberg)
Gold futures fell on sales by investors after a rally to a record of $1,478 an ounce. Silver climbed close to $42 an ounce, extending a surge to a 31-year high. Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi agreed to accept an African Union peace plan that may lead to a cease-fire with rebels, eroding demand for gold as an investment haven. Silver gained for the sixth straight session, the longest rally in four months.

China commodity imports rebound, cooling measures weigh
BEIJING, April 10 (Reuters) - China's March imports of main commodities like copper, iron ore and soy all rebounded strongly from the holiday-shortened month of February, but fell or held flat on a year-on-year basis, data showed, fuelling market concern that Beijing's tightening steps are taming demand growth.
Crude oil was an exception, with imports last month recording a 3-percent rise from a year earlier, but the growth pace also easing off February's 7.8 percent growth, as refineries started to feel the pressure of soaring crude costs .

Current commodity rally more selective than in 2008
NEW YORK/LONDON, April 8 (Reuters) - It's simple enough to see that many of the world's key commodities have surpassed their peaks from 2008, including gold, corn, and copper; others are still well behind, oil and wheat to name but two.
But the common theme is elusive: robust Chinese growth can help explain copper's buoyancy, but is irrelevant for coffee; loose money policy has clearly aided gold, but done less for oil; the tightest stocks since the Great Depression have fuelled corn, while wheat is far from its peaks.

China halts plans to build new aluminium plants -report
BEIJING/HONG KONG, April 11 (Reuters) - China has decided to halt plans to build new aluminium plants in the country to tackle serious overcapacity in the industry, the official China Securities Journal reported on Monday, citing Su Bo, a vice industry minister.
The newspaper quoted Su as saying eight departments would jointly release a notice which could put all planned aluminium projects, with a combined investment of more than 70 billion yuan ($11 billion), on hold. 

China April copper imports unlikely to extend March surge
HONG KONG, April 11 (Reuters) - China's copper imports are unlikely to surge in April after a 29.2 percent rise in March since importers are worried about high stocks in Shanghai and weak Chinese prices, analysts and traders said on Monday.
Some Chinese merchants have asked overseas suppliers to delay or cancel contracted shipments due to arrive in the second quarter of the year, said a trader at a large Chinese trading house, whose firm had cancelled copper due to arrive in May-June.

High silver prices may help ease zinc supply crunch
LONDON, April 8 (Reuters) - Zinc shortages predicted for around the middle of the decade due to mine closures are likely to be less acute than feared as miners rush to bring new projects on-stream to benefit from soaring prices for co-product silver.
Silver prices  are at 31-year highs above $40 an ounce and look set to continue their upwards trajectory for a while yet. This has encouraged investment in new and old silver mines producing a little zinc, as well as zinc mines with small amounts of silver.

METALS-Copper hits 5-wk peak, but slips on new Japan quake
LONDON, April 11 (Reuters) - Copper leapt to five-week highs on Monday as a weaker dollar and robust imports by top consumer China boosted investor appetite for the metal, but prices then slipped after news of another strong earthquake in Japan.
Tracking copper, aluminium  jumped to $2,720 a tonne, a level last seen in August 2008, and lead  touched $2,904 a tonne, its highest since April 2008. Tin  hit a record high of $33,600 a tonne.

PRECIOUS-Gold hits record as dollar dips; eyes on Fed
LONDON, April 11 (Reuters) - Gold hit record highs and silver a 31-year peak on Monday, lifted by elevated oil prices and a weaker dollar, amid expectations the Federal Reserve will lag other central banks in tightening monetary policy.
Precious metals have already been boosted this year by safe-haven demand after unrest swept the Middle East and North Africa and concerns resurfaced over the debt levels of some smaller euro zone economies, most notably Portugal.

U.S. corn races to record high, doubts on USDA data
SYDNEY, April 11 (Reuters) - U.S. corn futures jumped 2 percent to a record high on thinning stockpiles in top exporter the United States, as traders raised doubts about a government report that kept U.S. end-of-season forecast inventories unchanged.  "With the crude oil market continuing to go from strength to strength, that's putting significant amount of support through the entire agricultural complex, particularly corn with its linkages with the ethanol market," said Luke Mathews, commodity strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

India's key ministers to decide on wheat exports - food min
NEW DELHI, April 11 (Reuters) - India's empowered group of ministers will decide whether the country should allow exports of wheat this year, Food Minister K.V. Thomas said on Monday.
"The decision on wheat exports will take some time ...The empowered group of ministers will finally take a call on this issue," Thomas said.

Argentina may revive grain export tax scheme-report
BUENOS AIRES, April 10 (Reuters) - Argentina may revive a controversial tax system on grain exports, a local newspaper reported on Sunday, in a move that could raise tensions with farmers in one of the world's main suppliers of grains.
A similar plan to raise taxes on soy exports in 2008 sparked nationwide farmer protests that rattled global commodity markets and hit the popularity of President Cristina Fernandez, who plans to bid for re-election in October.

Feed wheat offsets strain on US corn supply-USDA
WASHINGTON, April 8 (Reuters) - A record 5 billion bushels of  corn will be used to make fuel ethanol, a potential strain on the tightest U.S. corn supply in 15 years but it will be offset by more use of wheat as a substitute for corn in hog and poultry rations, said the government on Friday.
USDA pegged the carryover at 675 million bushels, unchanged from its March estimate. Traders expected a 13 percent drop because a report last week showed supplies were dropping faster than thought.

Cocoa firms despite EU sanctions move
ICE cocoa futures firmed in early trading on concerns over the supply outlook from top producer Ivory Coast despite the lifting of European Union sanctions on four entities. Arabica coffee futures on ICE edged lower in early trade with downside limited by a weaker dollar. The arabicas market is underpinned by tight global supplies of high quality beans.

EU move unlikely to free Ivory Coast cocoa soon
LONDON, April 11 (Reuters) - Cocoa is unlikely to flow from top producer Ivory Coast until fighting stops and the banking system is restored, despite the lifting of European Union sanctions on four entities, analysts and traders said on Monday.
The EU lifted sanctions on Friday on Abidjan and San Pedro ports, as well as on the Ivorian Refining Company and the Coffee and Cocoa Trade Management Committee, following a request from presidential claimant Alassane Ouattara.

Corn traders reevaluate demand with prices at record
CHICAGO, April 8 (Reuters) - With corn prices at record highs, grain traders are paying more attention to the demand outlook, to gauge how big the U.S. corn supply will be in the coming months.
Rising ethanol production, which now consumes about 40 percent of the U.S. corn crop, has complicated the task of predicting when users will start to cut back purchases in the face of high prices.

Metals up on weak dollar; oil eases on Libya peace prospects
HONG KONG, April 11 (Reuters) - Commodities prices rose across the board, pushing the Reuters-Jefferies CRB index to a fresh 2-1/2 year high on a weaker dollar and strong trade data from China, while expectations of a European Central Bank rate hike in July propped up the euro.  "I think there is a good chance that gold could hit $1,500 an ounce within this quarter. And perhaps even higher if we see the weakness in the dollar persist and the Federal Reserve continues their relatively easy monetary policy," said Ong Yi Ling, investment analyst at Phillip Futures in Singapore.

20110412 0857 Soy Oil & Palm Oil Related News.

Soy Oil chart reading : pullback correction upside biased.

Soybeans (Source: CME)
US soybean futures stumble as traders book profits in the face of slowing China demand and increased export competition from freshly harvested South American supplies. May soy ended down 1.7% to $13.68 1/2 a bushel. An aggressive Brazilian soybean harvest coupled with China announcing they will likely be canceling some prior purchases on beliefs it over-booked soybeans earlier in the marketing year weighed on prices, says Jack Scoville, vice president of Price Futures Group. China is the global leader in soy imports. Higher South American output forecasts confirm supply fears are easing for soybeans.

Soybean Meal/Oil (Source: CME)
Soy-product futures end lower, retreating with soybeans. Soyoil futures drew pressure from sharp declines in crude oil futures, while soymeal stumbled on slumping global meal demand, analysts say. CBOT May soymeal drops 2.1% at $349.70/short ton while May soyoil slides 1.6% at 58.82c/pound.

China Likely To Reduce Soybean Imports (Source: CME)
Chinese soybean importers are likely to cancel some shipments of the commodity as processor margins shrink and soymeal prices fall, an official with state grain trader Cofco Ltd. said. China is the global leader in soybean imports, so any signal the Asian nation is cutting imports could pressure global prices. Soybean imports from April to September, the second half of the marketing year for the crop, are expected to fall from a year ago, said Liu Ni, Cofco's manager for oils and oilseeds information, speaking at the China International Edible Oils and Oilseeds Conference. Imports for the first half of the marketing year, which ran from October to March, rose 20% from a year earlier. For the full marketing year, China is expected to import 53 million to 54 million metric tons of soybeans, slightly lower than the 54.5 million to 54.8 million tons previously forecast, Ms. Liu said.
The lower forecast is driven by weakening demand from soybean processors, known as crushers, which process the crop into oil for cooking and meal for animal feed. Ms. Liu said domestic crushers are operating at around 40% of their processing capacity amid tight operating margins and lower meal prices. Crushers lost about 300 yuan ($45.90) a ton from imported soybeans, but the loss is expected to narrow with the deliveries of South American soybeans next month, she said. China is the largest export market for U.S. soybeans, yet recent data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture show sales cooling, with deals for the last week of March coming in 19% below the four-week average. Still, U.S. inventories of soybean remain low, likely preventing a sharp sell-off in soybean futures. In China, most importers have suspended imports of distillers' dried grains -- a type of feed product that competes with soybean meal -- since March, following an anti-dumping probe initiated by Chinese authorities, Ms. Liu said.
China's palm-oil imports will also be slightly lower at 6.2 million tons, compared with 6.4 million-6.5 million tons forecast earlier, she said. Ms. Liu said this is despite domestic rapeseed output likely falling by about 15% to below nine million tons this year. The government now has about 1.5 million tons of rapeseed oil, down sharply after it released about 1.6 million tons of rapeseed oil since October last year, and 2.2 million tons of soyoil in reserves. But commercial edible oil stocks were high at about three million tons due to weak market sentiment because it is the off season and because of the government's price controls, she added.

Palm at 3-week high to track comparative oils
JAKARTA, April 11 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures hit a three-week high, tracking comparative vegetable oils higher, while additional support was provided by expectations of rising crude prices.   "Everything is good," said one trader. "The market is going up -- we are catching up with soyoil, which broke new highs last week."

China may cancel soy cargoes due to poor margins-COFCO official
BEIJING, April 11 (Reuters) - China, the world's top soy importer, is likely to cancel or defer some soy cargoes due to poor crushing margins, while soy supplies are expected to be ample in the first half of the year, an official with state-owned trading house COFCO Co Ltd said on Monday.
The company also revised down China's soy imports in 2010/11 to between 53 million and 54 million tonnes, down from an earlier estimate of 54.5 million tonnes, Liu Ni, manager with COFCO's oils and oilseed information department, told a conference in Beijing.

China 2011 rapeseed output likely to fall by 15-20 pct -COFCO official
BEIJING, April 11 (Reuters) - China's 2011 rapeseed output is likely to fall by 15-20 percent, said Liu Ni, manager of oils and oilseed information department at state grain trader COFCO Ltd, a month before the harvest begins. 
Liu, in prepared remarks for a speech at a conference in Beijing, did not provide any further details, but farmers have reduced the acreage for rapeseed due to declining returns on the crop. 

Argentina says soy harvest shows disparate results
BUENOS AIRES, April 8 (Reuters) - Argentina's 2010/11 soy harvest, which started last month, has shown varying results dictated by the amount of rain that fell in different regions, the government said on Friday in a weekly report.
A drought toward the end of 2010 and limited rains in March are affecting 2010/11 soy, reducing yields in some areas of the South American country, the report said.