Thursday, February 25, 2010

20100225 1859 FCPO Weekly Chart Study.

FCPO closed : 2595, changed : -1 point, volume : higher.
Bollinger band reading : side way upside biased.
MACD Histrogram : nearly unchanged, buyer still in.
Support : 2521, middle Bollinger band, 2400 level.
Resistant : 2600, 2650, 2740 level.
Comment :
FCPO closed 1 point lower with improved volume transacted and the weekly technical reading still suggesting a side way range bound upside biased market. However market could possible consolidate downward to test lower support level in the near term.

20100225 1841 FCPO EOD Daily Chart Study.

FCPO closed : 2595, changed : +5 points, volume : higher.
Bollinger band reading : side way bullish biased.
MACD Histrogram : continue lower, seller taking chances.
Support : 2590, 2570, 2521 level.
Resistant : 2620, 2650, 2670 level.
Comment :
FCPO ended up slightly with high volume traded despite 2 cargo surveyors released a weaker crude palm oil export data forming a down doji bar candle. Side way correction market continue to show on the daily chart with bullish biased reading to take place in the near term and market could still possibly test lower support level at the middle Bollinger band level.
When to buy : buy at support or weakness with quick cut loss and profit target.
When to sell : sell at resistant or strength with quick cut loss and profit target.

20100225 1808 FKLI Weekly Chart Study.

FKLI closed : 1276, changed : +24 points, volume : higher.
Bollinger band reading : side way.
MACD Histrogram : reversed upward, buyer come back to give it a fight.
Support : 1274, middle Bollinger band, 1250 level.
Resistant : 1285, 1300, 1307 level.
Comment :
FKLI opened and traded mostly at higher level through out the week with 2 resistant levels penetraded ended the week with a doji bar candle. Chart wise, the outlook remained side way range bound with some test at the support and resistant level.

20100225 1735 FKLI EOD Daily Chart Study.

FKLI(Jan 2010) closed : 1276, changed : +6.5 points, volume : lower.
Bollinger band reading : slightly bullish.
MACD Histrogram : rising higher, buyer still in charge.
Support : 1270, 1260, 1250 level.
Resistant : 1278, 1290, 1300 level.
Comment :
FKLI Jan 2010 contract ended higher with lower volume today following overnight DJIA that rebounded higher and market sentiment improved as yesterday better 4th quarter GDP announced. Technically the daily chart just turned bullish as the Bollinger band width just started to expand suggesting possible further upside with the MACD Histrogram also agree with the upward biased movement by registering higher reading. However on the other hand, cash market last minuted closed from positive to unchanged with FKLI March 2010 contract ended doing 5 points discount compare to cash and 11 points discount compare to Jan 2010 contract raised some doubt on the upward movement.
When to buy : buy at support or weakness with quick cut loss and profit target.
When to sell : sell at resistant or strength with quick cut loss and profit target.

20100225 1512 FKLI Mid Day Hourly Chart Study.

FKLI last look (Mar2010): 1269 changed : +5 point, volume : high.
Bollinger band reading : side way little upside biased.
MACD Histrogram : up and down by a fraction, draw game for buyer and seller.
Support : 1260, 1250, 1235 level.
Resistant : 1270, 1278, 1290 level.
Comment :
FKLI Mar2010 contract opened and traded firmer in a side way 8 points range bound market. Hourly chart wise, market is likely to trade side way range bound and a little upside biased with immediate support seen at the
middle Bollinger band level.

20100225 1458 FCPO Mid Day Hourly Chart Study.

FCPO closed : 2591, changed : +1 points, volume : low.
Bollinger band reading : bearish.
MACD Histrogram : getting lower, seller returned.
Support : 2590, 2570, 2521 level.
Resistant : 2620, 2650, 2670, 2700 level.
Comment :
Despite overnight higher soy oil futures price, FCPO opened and traded higher but the upward movement didn't last long follow by sell down activities pushed price lower test below the 2590 support level but still managed to closed 1 point above it. Hourly chart has turned into bearish outlook and is likely to trade downside biased with possible mild upward correction as price has touched the lower Bollinger band.

20100225 1036 Malaysia Corporate News.

Las Vegas Sands said it will open a portion of its Marina Bay Sands in Singapore on April 27. The project's nearly 3-acre SkyPark, which sits atop the hotel-casino's three 55-story hotel towers, will open June 23 as part of the overall grand opening celebration. The hotel will open with 963 hotel rooms and in time to host the Inter-Pacific Bar Association's annual conference.
  • Subject to regulatory approval, Marina Bay Sands will open with part of the shopping mall and convention center, several restaurants and the casino. (Las Vegas Review Journal) 
This concrete opening date follows the company's indication last week that it will open its Singapore IR by April. This news should be a slight negative for Genting Singapore given that this firm date essentially limits its gaming monopoly in Singapore to about three months i.e. until end-April.

The proposal paper on electricity tariff is still under consideration by the cabinet. As such, there had been no announcement on the matter, according to the Ministry of Energy, Green Technology and Water. (Bernama)

Palm oil futures fell for the first time in three days yesterday on concern demand may wane as the price gap between the vegetable oil and its rival soybean narrowed. Palm oil for May delivery on the Malaysia Derivatives Exchange lost as much as 0.6% to RM2,619/MT, before pausing at RM2,628/MT. (Bloomberg, Malaysian Reserve)

The Selangor Government is ready to face Syarikat Bekalan Air Selangor (Syabas) in court, should the water company proceed with legal action after the state government refused to allow it to increase water tariffs.
  • Menteri Besar Tan Sri Abdul Khalid Ibrahim said Syabas, through the Tetuan Cheang and Ariff law firm, sent a letter dated Feb 12, requesting Selangor to pay RM339m in compensation within 14 days or face legal action. 
  • “The state government has been advised by a panel of lawyers which found that there was no need to do so. In relation to that, the state government will stop any attempt to increase water tariffs in Selangor. “We remain firm that Syabas has gone against many important matters in the concession agreement which was certified by the National Audit Department. (Bernama)
Malaysia Airports Holdings has shortlisted five companies to build the main terminal building and satellite tower for the new RM2bn low-cost carrier terminal (LCCT) in Sepang.UEM-Bina Puri JV, Sunway Construction, privately-held AHT Norlan-Carriage JV, IJM Corp Bhd and the Gadang Holdings-PPC JV are the frontrunners to win the tender.
  • An MAHB official, who declined to be named, said the five were selected because they had offered the lowest prices for the project and said they could complete the job in 20 months, as outlined by the airport operator. 
  • The new LCCT is slated for completion by 3Q11. However, rumours are swirling that it may be delayed by 6-12 months. "The tender process took a longer time (than expected). MAHB had pre-qualified many companies and then invited some on a selective basis to tender," the official said. "MAHB may award the contracts for both buildings in the next one to two months and the two companies are expected to start work immediately", says the official. (BT)
Proton Holdings is holding “intense discussions” with global OEMs on different types of collaborations. MD Datuk Syed Zainal said the national carmaker was talking not only with Volkswagen but also with Mitsubishi and Renault for collaboration in engine and products. However, he said he respect the confidentiality of such high-level discussions and would not want to pre-empt the talks. (Starbiz)

Perodua plans to expand its export market this year to include Thailand, Pakistan and India. MD Aminar Rashid Salleh said the company aimed to increase the sales of engine components and CBUs. “This year, our export target is 2,700-3,000 units but we need time to study the possibility of increasing the volume, particularly in new areas,” he said. “Our emphasis is within Asean. We are already in Singapore and Brunei and we would like to increase the market share. In the long-term, we might also look at South Africa,” he added. (Financial Daily)

Edaran Tan Chong Motor (ETCM), the sales and marketing arm of Nissan vehicles in Malaysia, is confident of maintaining its current growth momentum via core and proven models. "We also plan to introduce two new models," said ED Datuk Dr Ang Bon Beng. (Bernama)

Mercedes-Benz Malaysia is on track to achieving a sales target of 4,200 vehicles this year. VP of Sales and Marketing for passenger cars, Florian Mueller said the C and E class Mercedes-Benz have been the pillar of sales over the past two months with both classes contributing up to 80% of units sold. On the newly launched S300 L, S350 L and S500 L models, he said the company had already received 60 pre-launch bookings and expects another 60 in the second week. (Bernama)

Media Prima has appointed Mohamad Ariff Ibrahim as group CFO effective April 16. Mohamad Ariff is currently the CFO/finance director of New Straits Times Press. He replaces Amil Izham Hamzah who will not be renewing his contract with the group. Meanwhile, Ahmad Izham Omar will take on the role of ED of 8TV. (BT)

Bank Islam Malaysia expects a 10-15% growth in deposits this year, driven by the launch of new attractive products and campaigns. Treasury Division GM Norashikin Mohd Kassim said the bank's current total deposits stood at RM25bn for both retail and corporate segments. (Bernama)

MMC Corp said that the tender award for the construction of a port in its Jazan City in Saudi Arabia has been put on hold pending confirmation from anchor tenants. (Bloomberg, Malaysian Reserve)

YTL Power’s subsidiary, YTL Communications, has entered into contracts with Samsung Electronics Co Ltd to increase the number of base stations towards launching its 4G network nationwide soon. Samsung would provide additional 500 WiMAX 2.3GHz radio base stations to increase coverage in the East Coast, in addition to the 1,990 stations currently being deployed. It said Samsung would also supply 2,000 smaller base stations, for in-building network coverage. (Financial Daily)

Hai-O Enterprise will focus on its expansion in Indonesia going forward while exploring business opportunities in China. Group CFO Hew Von Kin said the company would launch its Indonesia ops in April and had submitted more products for registration approvals, adding that the company expected the Indonesian ops to break-even in two years. Group MD Tan Kai Hee said Indonesia was Hai-O’s only overseas market currently and it planned to venture into China in a year or two. (Starbiz)

Golden Land, an oil palm plantation company, is proposing a private placement exercise of up to 10% of its shares to raise funds to be used as working capital. Based on an indicative issue price of RM1 per share, Golden Land expects the proposed private placement exercise may raise about RM22.3m. (Malaysian Reserve)

20100225 1029 Malaysian Economic News.

Malaysia emerged from its first recession in a decade in 4Q09. Gross domestic product (GDP) increased 4.5% yoy in 4Q, after contracting 1.2% in 3Q. That was better than the median forecast of 3.2% in a survey.
  • On an annual basis, Malaysia’s 2009 GDP shrank 1.7% yoy (4.6% in 2008). The median forecast in a survey was for a 2.0% decline. (Bloomberg) Please see our Economic Focus for further details.
Inflation rose for a second month in January, climbing 1.3% yoy, after gaining 1.1% in December. The median forecast in a survey was for a 1.5% increase. (Bloomberg) Please see our Economic Update for further details.

The 4.5% growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) achieved in 4Q09 is unexpected, says Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak. The growth stemmed from strengthened domestic and external demand," said Najib. Last year, the country's economic growth contracted to -1.7%, lower than the projected 3%, he said.
  • "For 2010, the country's growth is expected to be at 4.9%. The market forecast is moving closer to our expectation," said RAM Group chief economist Dr Yeah Kim Leng. 
  •  Minister of International Trade and Industry Datuk Seri Mustapa Mohamed said he was optimistic that the positive trend will continue based on signs that the country's export growth could exceed the 2-3% growth projected for 2010. (Bernama)
The shift in growth from the public sector to the private sector is becoming more evident and this is healthy for the Malaysian economy judging from the positive Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth registered in 4Q09. "The fourth quarter growth saw more contribution from the private sector and this is an important indicator of the increased public confidence towards the economy," said Datuk S.K. Devamany, Deputy Minister in the Prime Minister's Department (Economic Planning Unit). (Bernama)

The Government’s proposed fuel subsidy scheme based on the engine capacity of vehicles has apparently been shelved, according to source. This plan, which was originally set to be implemented on 1 May, will not proceed even though a lot of the preparatory work has entered the final stage. (The Star)

Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak said the government had filled 38,495 of the 50,000 vacant posts in the federal civil service between March last year and 24 Feb this year. Overall, conditions in the labour market improved significantly in 4Q09 with total retrenchments declining to 2,125 persons compared with 12,590 persons in 1Q09. (Bernama)

Broad money, M3, grew at an annual rate of 7.9% in January (9.1% in Dec 09), said Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM). It was due to sustained credit by banks to the private sector. (Bernama)

20100225 1024 Global Economic News.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the US economy is in a “nascent” recovery that still requires low interest rates to encourage demand by consumers and businesses once federal stimulus expires. “ A sustained recovery will depend on continued growth in private-sector final demand for goods and services,” Bernanke told the House Financial Services Committee.
  • Bernanke signaled that short-term interest rates would be kept near zero "for an extended period," as he said the Fed will "evaluate" whether additional monetary stimulus of some sort is needed. Unemployment, not inflation, is "the biggest problem we have," he said. 
  • Bernanke left the door open to further purchases of mortgage backed securities and agency debt beyond March, and in response to questions from committee members, he said the Fed would also be evaluating whether it should extend its financing of new commercial mortgage backed securities past June. (Xinhua, Bloomberg)
The US Senate on Wednesday approved a US$15bn job-creation bill that would give businesses tax breaks for hiring the unemployed and states more money for infrastructure projects. The four-prong bill would:
  • Exempt employers from Social Security payroll taxes on new hires who were unemployed; 
  • Fund highway and transit programs through 2010;
  • Extend a tax break for business that spend money on capital investments, such as equipment purchases;
  • Expand the use of the Build America Bonds program, which helps states and municipalities fund capital construction projects. (CNN Money)
US new home sales unexpectedly fell in January to the lowest level on record, a sign that an extension of a government tax credit may not be enough to rekindle demand. Purchases declined 11% to an annual pace of 309,000, below the market forecast of 342,000. The median sales price dropped 2.4% yoy and the supply of unsold homes increased. (Bloomberg)

As banks around the world increasingly load up on government securities, the heightened risk of sovereign default makes the likelihood of a joint fiscal, banking and currency crisis much greater in the mature world, the chief economist for the Institute of International Finance (IIF) said. (Xinhua)

Global commerce contracted around 12.0% in volume terms last year, more than a previous estimate of 10.0%, said World Trade Organization Director-General Pascal Lamy. This is “the sharpest decline since the end of the Second World War,” Lamy told.
  • However, world trade is “picking up” he added, without giving a forecast for this year. It’s too soon to know whether the current upward trend is “short-term” or “sustainable,” he said. (Bloomberg)
European industrial orders unexpectedly rose 0.8% mom for a second month in Dec 09 (+2.7% in Nov), led by a surge in demand for capital goods such as machinery and equipment. On an annualised basis, industrial orders increased 9.5% (-0.6% in Nov), the first annual gain since July 08. Economists forecast a drop of 1% mom in Dec 09. (Bloomberg)

Japan’s exports climbed 40.9% yoy in January (+12.0% in Dec 09), marking the biggest increase since Feb 80. Imports rose 8.6% yoy (-5.5% in Dec 09), resulting in a trade surplus of ¥85.2bn in January (¥544.2bn in Dec 09). The median estimate was for exports and imports to rise 39.5% and 12.1% respectively.. (Bloomberg)

Hong Kong’s economic growth beat estimates to rise by a seasonally adjusted 2.3% qoq in 4Q09 (0.4% in 3Q09). Financial Secretary John Tsang forecast an expansion of as much as 5% this year as he moved to counter the risk of a property bubble. Economists projected it would increase by 0.4% qoq in 4Q09. (Bloomberg)

Hong Kong will raise the stamp duty for luxury homes sales of more than HK$20m and increase the supply of land and apartments, Financial Secretary John Tsang said. The stamp duty measures could be extended to cheaper properties “if there is excessive speculation,” he said.
  • At the same time, Tsang switched to forecasting a budget surplus for the year through 31 Mar, rather than a deficit, on land sales and extra government revenue from surging property and stock transactions. (Bloomberg)
Standard & Poor’s may downgrade Greece’s credit rating again by the end of March as a weak economy and political opposition threaten the country’s ability to cut the European Union’s largest budget deficit. “We believe that a further downgrade of Greece of one to two notches is possible within a month,” S&P analysts said. (Bloomberg)

Bank Indonesia (BI) doesn’t see much “pressure” to increase its benchmark interest rate in the first half of this year, central bank Deputy Governor Hartadi Sarwono said. “It seems that inflation is still within our expected range so that pressure to increase the BI rate isn’t big,” Sarwono said. (Bloomberg)

The Indonesian government and central bank are urging lenders to reduce borrowing costs to boost growth, according to State Enterprise Minister Mustafa Abubakar. Policy makers want Indonesia’s 121 commercial lenders to cut loan rates by between 1-2%. “Business people have been complaining about higher lending rates in Indonesia.” (Bloomberg)