Wednesday, March 31, 2010

20100331 1823 FCPO EOD Daily Chart Study.

FCPO closed : 2551, changed : +6 points, volume : lower.
Bollinger band reading : side way downside biased.
MACD Histrogram : recovering, seller lock in partial profit.
Support : 2550, 2521, 2500, 2470 level.
Resistant : 2570, 2590, 2620 level.
Comment :
Better export data released today seems didn't entice FCPO enough to end the day just fraction higher in lower volume after yesterday ultra high volume transacted. Daily chart technical reading has turned from a downside biased into a side way range bound downside biased market as the Bollinger band width stopped expanding today.
When to buy : buy at support or weakness with quick cut loss and profit target.
When to sell : sell at resistant or strength with quick cut loss and profit target.

20100331 1757 FKLI EOD Daily Chart Study.

FKLI closed : 1316.5, changed : -1.5 point, volume : low.
Bollinger band reading : side way range bound little upside biased.
MACD Histrogram : getting lower, buyer reduce exposure.
Support : 1312, 1307, 1300  level.
Resistant : 1318, 1325, 1330 level.
Comment :
Last transaction day of the month FKLI(Mar 2010 contract) ended marginally lower in thin volume as most trader turned their focus to Apr 2010 contract. Daily chart still suggesting a side way range bound market with a little upside biased. However, base on today Apr 2010 contract turned spot month chart tomorrow that closed the day at a 10 points premium should make the daily chart turned into bullish further upside potential daily chart reading.
When to buy : buy at support or weakness with quick cut loss and profit target.
When to sell : sell at resistant or strength with quick cut loss and profit target.

20100331 1447 FCPO Mid Day Hourly Chart Study.

FCPO closed : 2535, changed : -10 points, volume : low.
Bollinger band reading : side way range bound.
MACD Histrogram : up and down, bueyr and seller still battling.
Support : 2521, 2500, 2470 level.
Resistant : 2550, 2570, 2600 level.
Comment :
Despite improving export data released this morning, FCPO eased lower in low volume transacted. Hourly chart reading suggesting a side way range bound market with a little downside biased potential.

20100331 1429 FKLI Mid Day Hourly Chart Study.

FKLI(Apr2010) closed : 1322, changed : +2 points, volume : low.
Bollinger band reading : side way range bound little downside biased.
MACD Histrogram : recovering,  seller reducing position.
Support : 1318, 1312, 1307, level.
Resistant : 1325, 1330, 1335 level.
Comment :
FKLI traded mostly higher in the morning session with thin volume changed hand. Hourly chart wise, market seem facing some resistant near the middle Bollinger band level when price tried to crossover it. Overall. market is likely to trade side way range bound little downside biased.

20100331 1108 Malaysia Corporate News.

Hong Leong Bank has revived an earlier offer to buy out smaller rival EON Capital at the same price, which was to buy out its assets and liabilities for RM4.92b cash, which equal to RM7.10/share. The new proposal almost mirrors the one rejected earlier by EONCap's previous board. Similar to the condition set in the previous proposal, EONCap has been given seven days to decide if it will table to offer to shareholders. Once it agrees, the smaller lender must deal with Hong Leong exclusively on the sale, according to the proposal. (BT)

Unlocking the full potential of smallholder planters and genome research are the two key initiatives identified by the Government to boost higher productivity and sustainability level of the palm oil industry in the country. The National Economic Advisory Council (NEAC) said that more than one-third of palm oil production came from smallholders, who currently had lower yields than commercial estates. (Starbiz)

Petronas will list two "sizeable" subsidiaries with good track records on the local stock exchange this year, says Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak. "These initiatives have the goal to reduce the government's presence, directly or indirectly, in business activities that are best carried out by the private sector," he further commented. Petronas had identified the companies to be listed, but did not name them. "We have heard for some time that the Petronas group was looking at listing some of its subsidiaries. So we look forward to hearing the details of that. We're very much looking foward to the (listings) happening," says Bursa Malaysia CEO Datuk Yusli Mohamed Yusoff. (BT)

Tenaga Nasional expects foreign investors' interest in its shares to return once the government gives more clarity on the tariff structure and fuel pass-through formula, says CEO Datuk Seri Che Khalib Mohamad Noh hopes that an announcement will be made soon by the government on the matter, perhaps before the next power tariff review due in early July. "If the government is going to remove (gas) subsidy, this more transparent cost pass-through formula has to come together, because you can't have a removal in subsidy on one side, while the power tariff is not certain," said Che Khalib. (BT)

The Energy, Green Technology and Water Minister Datuk Seri Peter Chin has announced the appointment of Tan Sri Dr Ahmad Tajuddin Ali and Ahmad Fauzi Hassan as chairman and chief executive officer (CEO) respectively for the Energy Commission of Malaysia for two years, effective April 1. The appointments were made pursuant to the separation of the post of chairman and CEO, under the Energy Commission Act 2009 (Amendment). (Bernama)

CIMB Group expects the corporate deal pipeline to remain positive after a strong start to the year, chief executive officer Datuk Seri Nazir Razak said. “The year has started off much better than I expected,” he added. “It was a very strong quarter for the capital markets side. We got privatisations and M&As and IPOs,” Nazir said. “Some of the deals announced today (yesterday) means that there will be more in the pipeline. I’m positive about the dealflow,” he said. (Starbiz)

Axiata Group says it is likely to use part of proceeds from the sale of shares in its Indonesia-based subsidiary to reduce debts and as dividend to shareholders. "We are looking at a few possibilities. One of it is a special dividend or we make it as part of a longterm dividend, or we pare down our debts. What we are more inclined at this point in time, is a combination of the latter two. This means, we will pare down the debts and at the same time, build enough cash accumulation, so that we can give shareholders a good progressive dividend," said president and group CEO Datuk Seri Jamaludin Ibrahim. (BT)

Malaysia's first 4G WiMAX network has the potential to change how people live, work and communicate, according to YTL Corp MD Tan Sri Francis Yeoh. More importantly, 4G services could enable businesses to be conducted more efficiently, which is in line with the Government's New Economic Model (NEM) to transform the country into a high-income nation, he said. "A 10% improvement in broadband penetration increases GDP by 1.3%. Currently our broadband penetration is only 25% and if we move it to 75%, we will have a 6% increase in GDP" and would create a more sustainable economy dependent on knowledge workers, he said. (Starbiz)

YTL Corp is optimistic of better years ahead, helped by the recovery of the property market, its wireless broadband business, as well as its other businesses. "For the full year results (ending June 30 2010), the absolute sum will be double that of our first-half numbers," said group MD Tan Sri Francis Yeoh. Meanwhile, Yeoh said the group will use the US$350m (RM1.1bn) raised via a five-year exchangeable bonds to build its war chest. (BT)

The India telco ministry has cleared all nine telecom companies to participate in 3G airwaves sale process scheduled to begin on Apr 9. It has also approved the 11 firms that submitted bids for broadband wireless spectrum (BWA) auctions that will begin after completion of 3G sale process. According to the telecom department, all six of India’s largest private telecom companies — Bharti Airtel (SingTel's Indian associate), Reliance Communications, Vodafone Essar, Idea Cellular (Axiata's Indian associate), Tata Teleservices and Aircel — have bid for 3G spectrum in all 22 circles. These six companies have also bid for BWA airwaves on pan-India basis. Three other service providers — Etisalat, S Tel and Videocon — will take part in the 3G sale process, but in select circles. These three operators have also not bid for BWA airwaves, the telecom department said. (Economic Times of India)

IJM Corp is bidding for some RM4bn worth of jobs at home and abroad, says MD Datuk Krishnan Tan. "For the construction sector, in terms of order flow and news flow, it should get a lot more positive going forward," says Tan. The group has a construction order book of RM3.6bn and this is expected to cross the RM4bn mark by the year end. He noted that this is still far off from the RM6bn order book that IJM used to enjoy at its peak.
  • Tan also said the government's plan to tender out land to the private sector to develop is a new phenomenon in Malaysia, but is something that is already done in countries like Hong Kong and Singapore. Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak said yesterday that several parcels of land in Jalan Stonor, Jalan Ampang and Jalan Lido in Kuala Lumpur have been identified to be tendered out. "I think it's a good process and I'm sure the big property players would want to participate because these are quite attractive land pieces," he said. 
  • IJM has some 4,000ha to 5,000ha in Penang, the Klang Valley and Johor. (BT)
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) announced that February 2010 international scheduled air traffic showed continued strengthening of demand.
  • Compared to February 2009, passenger demand was up 9.5%, while cargo demand grew 26.5%. Passenger demand must recover by a further 1.4% to return to pre-crisis levels. Cargo traffic, which plunged much further than passenger demand, has a further 3% to recover in order to return to pre-crisis levels. 
  • The highlight for February was improved load factors which stood at 75.5%. Considering that February is traditionally the weakest month for travel, and if seasonally adjusted, this translates to an all-time record February load factor of 79.3%. While demand increased by 9.5%, supply was held back to just 1.9%.
  • In contrast to Europe (+4.3% yoy) and North America (+4.4%), Asia-Pacific carriers posted strong international passenger traffic growth of 13.5%, which was partly boosted by the timing of the Chinese New Year. Compared with the mid-2009 low there has been a 19% rebound.
  • Despite the sluggish US economy, North American airlines have seen an air freight volume rebound (+34.1%) equivalent to those experienced by Asia-Pacific (+34.5%) and Latin American airlines (+41.9%). European freight volume grew just 7.2% in February. The global strong air freight upturn has been largely driven by the business inventory cycle, which is expected to wear-out in 2H10 when inventories reach normal levels. (IATA)
Cargo airline Transmile Air commenced operations to Singapore's Changi Airport, operating six weekly scheduled cargo flights from Singapore to Kuala Lumpur via Kuching and Labuan. Transmile Air chief operating officer Robert John Hyslop said the airline's operations from Changi Airport was especially ideal for the oil and gas industry, as Transmile would be able to accept shipments that were too large or bulky for shipping on narrow-body passenger aircraft. (Bernama, BT)

Vale SA and BHP Billiton Ltd ended a 40-year system of setting annual prices for iron ore by signing short-term contracts with Asian mills. Sumitomo Metal industries Co agreed to pay Vale US$100-110 a tonne for the quarter starting April 1, a spokesman said. BHP said it will sell the majority of its production to Asian steel mills on shorter-term contracts without giving pricing. Moving to quarterly pricing will help steel producers benefit from surging spot prices for iron ore, which are trading at more than double the annual-contract price. (Bloomberg)

Genting says it is extensively scouting the US for strategic investments. It is also keen to invest in this region where the gaming market is opening up, head of strategic investments and corporate affairs Datuk Justin Leong said. (BT)

Sapuracrest Petroleum is bidding for projects worth as much as RM6bn in the region, including Australia, Saudi Arabia and India, says executive vice-chairman Datuk Shahril Shamsuddin. He hopes to secure between 50-60% of those jobs. "We will continue to bid for projects. Our order book now stands at RM11bn," he said. "I think it's going to be better than last year. Signs of recovery in developing countries are already there. That will drive more development in the oil and gas industry. So the activities there will increase," he further commented. (BT)

Salcon has been awarded a RM11.8m contract to build a sewage treatment plant in Kota Baru, Kelantan. The group said the project is expected to contribute positively to Salcon's earnings for the FY10 and FY11. (BT)

Foreclosed properties worth an indicative value of RM235m under Pengurusan Danaharta Nasional are up for grabs this year. Muhammad Solleh Ramli, head of property department of Prokhas, which manages the tender, said these properties were located across the country. "The tender involves mostly local property investors," Muhammad Solleh said. Prokhas' upcoming real estate tender exercise, a month-long initiative from April 5 to May 4 this year, involves a total of 110 property listings across multiple segments. These include agricultural land and development projects, besides residential, commercial, industrial, office and retail units. (Financial Daily)

Parkson Holdings will spend some RM250m this year to refurbish and increase retail space by a fifth across China, Malaysia and Vietnam. The Malaysian retailer is looking at adding 12 new stores in the three countries, bringing the total number of stores to 97 by year-end. Parkson is also expected to start construction of its first outlet in Cambodia in the next few months, with opening scheduled for 2012. (BT)

Yinson Holdings is buying a RM68m vessel to support its venture in the marine transport industry. The group bought the vessel from Airia Jaya Marine. (BT)

Favelle Favco has accepted purchase orders worth a combined RM79.8m to supply offshore cranes and tower cranes to five companies. The cranes are scheduled to be delivered by the end of this year and the middle of 2011. (BT)

20100331 1057 Malaysian Economic News.

The New Economic Model (NEM) will be realised through an Economic Transformation Programme (ETP), one of the four pillars to propel Malaysia to being a sustainable and inclusive high-income economy and developed nation status by 2020. Three principles of the NEM are high income, sustainability and inclusiveness. Eight strategic reform initiatives are set out to achieve this transformation.
  • Economic reforms can boost average annual growth to 6.5% in the 2011-2020 period and per capita gross national product (GNP) will rise to about US$17,700 by 2020 (vs. current US$7,558). Private consumption will rise and increase its share of GDP. On the supply side, the share of agriculture and manufacturing to GDP will continue to slide while services’ share of GDP will increase from almost 59% in 2010 to slightly above 67%by 2020. 
  • The government will revise its affirmative action policies, which would be built on four principles: market friendly, merit based, transparent and needs based. The strategies will focus on the bottom 40% of households by income, as the country must reduce income gaps in all races, he said.
  • The NEM calls for a further reduction in the fiscal deficit with the easing and exit from fiscal stimulus to a near-balance by 2020. In the 2011-2020 period, it envisages a slight dip in the total national debt to just under 30% of GDP by 2020.
  • The NEM will be integrated into the 10th Malaysia Plan (10MP) while the details of the new economic policy will be unveiled in 3Q. (Bloomberg, Bernama) Please see our Economic Focus for further details
The Malaysian Industrial Development Authority (MIDA), which will be renamed as the Malaysian Investment Development Authority is expected to be fully corporatized by August. MIDA is looking at liberalising some services sub-sectors this year to attract more foreign investments, according to its director-general Datuk Jalilah Baba. She said there was interest by foreign companies to participate in these sub-sectors but it was hampered by several issues (i.e. equity conditions). Among the sub-sectors likely to be selected are renewable energy and energy conservation, medical tourism, and private education, which did not have many local players. Investments in services could go up to RM48bn, surpassing the Industrial Master Plan average of RM45bn, bolstered by the liberalisation process, she added. (Bloomberg)

The Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation is seeking more than RM4bn to be utilised for research and development funding under the 10th Malaysia Plan (10MP) (vs. RM2.9bn in 9MP). Its minister, Datuk Seri Dr. Maximus Ongkili said the government expenditure for research and development is only 0.64% of gross domestic product (GDP). (Bernama)

Malaysia remains China's largest trading partner within Asean with total trade amounting to US$10.02bn Jan-Feb this year. The trade volume represents about a quarter of China's total trade with Asean countries during the period under review, said the Chinese Ministry of Commerce. (Bernama)

20100331 1043 Global Economic News.

The US Conference Board’s confidence index rose to 52.5 in March from 46.4 in February, exceeding the median forecast of economists. The Conference Board’s measure of present conditions increased to 26 from 21.7, the highest level since May. The gauge of expectations for the next six months rose to 70.2 from 62.9. (Bloomberg)

US home prices, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index of 20 cities, unexpectedly rose in January indicating the housing market is stabilising as the economy expands. The home-price index climbed 0.3% mom on a seasonally adjusted basis, matching the gain in December. The gauge was down 0.7% from January 2009, the smallest year-over-year decrease in three years. (Bloomberg)

Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans said he was "very concerned" about unemployment in the United States, predicting that the unemployment rate would rise above 9% by the end of the year. Evans forecast the unemployment rate to contract, however, to 8% by the end of 2011 and then to 5% with an economic recovery. (CNBC)

President Barack Obama and four other leaders (South Korean President Lee Myung Bak, UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown, Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper and French President Nicolas Sarkozy) said “more work” is needed to repair the balance sheets of some international banks after the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. “While confidence in the financial system has improved, more work is required to restore the soundness of some global banks’ balance sheets, to avoid leaving the global financial system vulnerable and restricting its ability to provide the credit needed to fuel sustainable growth,” they said. (Bloomberg)

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut its growth forecast for Germany after a recovery in Europe’s largest economy came to a halt, and said the government needs a “credible” plan to reduce its deficit. It expects the German economy to expand 1.2% this year and 1.7% in 2011 (vs. January’s forecast of 1.5% in 2010 and 1.9% in 2011). (Bloomberg)

Britain emerged from recession in 4Q09 at a faster pace than previously estimated, providing a boost for Prime Minister Gordon Brown with a general election weeks away. Gross domestic product (GDP) rose 0.4% qoq in 4Q09 (vs. previous calculation of 0.3%). Economists forecast for a 0.3% increase. (Bloomberg)

Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Glenn Stevens said policy makers need to manage economic “upswings” to prevent future deep downturns, signaling that the central bank may raise interest rates next week. “Very deep recessions leave a long-lasting legacy of unemployment and all the things that go with it,” he noted. (Bloomberg)

Japan’s industrial production fell 0.9% mom in February (+2.7% in Jan) and the unemployment rate held at the lowest level (4.9%) since Mar 09, underscoring an uneven economic recovery that has yet to end deflation. Household spending unexpectedly slipped 0.5% yoy in February (+1.7% in Jan), marking the first decline in seven months. (Bloomberg)

A growing number of foreign companies in China plan to relocate plants inland or outside the country because of rising labor and logistics costs, a survey by the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai showed. The proportion of companies with such plans doubled last year compared with 2008. Southwest or central Chinese cities and emerging Asian economies including India, Vietnam and Indonesia are “new horizons” for their lower-cost, export-driven operations. Multinational corporations still prefer China in order to benefit from the nation’s rapid expansion, it said. (Bloomberg)

Hong Kong’s retail sales rose 35.8% yoy to HK$26.9bn in February (6.5% in Jan), marking the fastest pace in more than 20 years after unemployment fell and more tourists arrived during the Lunar New Year. Economists forecast it would increase by 39.0%. (Bloomberg)

Singapore’s electricity will cost more for the upcoming quarter, starting April. It will be the fourth consecutive quarter of increase due to a continued increase in fuel oil prices. The average fuel oil price over the last three months has increased from S$99.38 to S$102.95 per barrel. With the increase of some 3.0%, electricity will cost 23.56 cents per kilowatthour. (Channel News Asia)

Vietnam’s economic growth accelerated to 5.83% yoy in 1Q10 (6.9% in 4Q09), buoyed by construction, tourism and banking services amid robust domestic demand. Industry and construction expanded 5.65% and services grew 6.64% in 1Q. (Bloomberg)