Tuesday, November 30, 2010

20101130 1814 FCPO EOD Daily Chart Study.

FCPO closed : 3412, changed : +31 points, volume : higher.
Bollinger band reading : upside biased.
MACD Histrogram : recovering, seller leaving as buyer returned.
Support : 3350, 3300 3270 3100 level.
Resistant : 3420, 3450, 3470 level.
Comment :
Improving export data lead FCPO to end higher recorded gain with improving volume changed hand after market opened, tested lower support level, recovered surged new high followed by profit taking activities press price to closed off the low. Daily chart formed a doji up bar candle continue the uptrend movement testing higher resistant level with the reading suggesting upside biased market development.
When to buy : buy at support and weakness with quick cut loss and profit target.
When to sell : sell at resistant or strength with quick cut loss and profit target.

20101130 1747 FKLI EOD Daily Chart Study.

FKLI closed : 1488.5, changed : -8.5 point,  volume : lower.
Bollinger band reading : side way range bound downside biased.
MACD Histrogram : recovering, seller closing position.
Support : 1485, 1470, 1458, 1445 level.
Resistant : 1500, 1530, 1550 level.
Comment :
FKLI ended lower recorded loss with slower volume changed hand continue to trade side ways following most regional market that traded lower. Daily chart formed a small body doji down bar candle resulted the 3rd harami candle stick formation since 10 Nov 2010 hinted a potential market reversal with the reading suggesting a side way range bound downside biased market development.
When to buy : buy at support or weakness with quick cut loss and profit target.
When to sell : sell at resistant or strength with quick cut loss and profit target.

20101130 1152 Breaking News.

India's economy grew a faster-
than-expected 8.9 percent in the September quarter from a year earlier, government data released on Tuesday showed. The median forecast in a Reuters' poll was for an annual rise of 8.3 percent. "Overall the economy seems to be in good shape, though the next two quarters will see a moderation from these levels," said D.K. Joshi, principal economist at Crisil.

Europe's sovereign debt woes will continue to tug at markets, as investors Tuesday also get a few new pieces of U.S. economic data and hear from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke on the economy. Trader
s had expected the markets to be swayed this week in both directions — by the negative headlines from Europe on its debt crisis, and then by the positives of better-than-expected U.S. economic reports. The week's data puts the focus on the consumer, with holiday and other chain stores and car sales data. The calendar is also heavy with manufacturing, housing and employment news, and ends with the November jobs report Friday.

20101130 0931 Global Economics News.

E.U: Growth to weaken as crisis 'shadow' remains next year . Budget cuts to stem a mounting debt crisis will hurt consumer demand and faltering global expansion curbs exports, the European Commission said. Gross-domestic-product growth in the 16-nation euro region may weaken to 1.5% YoY in 2011 from 1.7% YoY this year. While Germany may expand 3.7% YoY this year, the economies of Ireland, Greece and Spain will continue to shrink. (Source: Bloomberg)

U.K: House prices fell for a fifth month in November as demand for property dropped the most in almost two years, Hometrack Ltd. said. The average cost of a home fell 0.8% MoM from October to GBP155,000 (USD242,900). Demand for homes, measured by the change in new buyers registering with real-estate agents, fell 4.3% MoM, the biggest decline since January 2009. (Source: Bloomberg)

Spain: Inflation slowed in November after the economic recovery stalled in the third quarter. Consumer prices rose 2.2% YoY, based on a European Union measure, after advancing 2.3% YoY in October, the Madrid-based National Statistics Institute said in a statement. (Source: Bloomberg)

Ireland: To pay an average 5.8% for international bailout loans as part of an agreement that protected the senior bondholders of Irish banks and preserved the country's low corporate tax policy. The state was granted funds amounting to EUR 67.5b (USD 90b) with an average duration of 7 1/2 years by the European Union and International Monetary Fund, the government said. The average interest compares with a rate of around 5% charged to Greece for three-year loans earlier this year. (Source: Bloomberg)

Greece: Wins EU pledge for 4 1/2-year extension to repay bailout to match the seven-year term for the rescue Ireland received. Greece in May got a three-year aid package of EUR 110b (USD 146b) from the euro area and the International Monetary Fund to prevent a debt default. (Source: Bloomberg)

Japan: Retail sales declined for the first time this year after a stimulus program ended and the tobacco tax was increased. Sales decreased 0.2% YoY in October the Trade Ministry said in Tokyo. From a month earlier, they tumbled 1.9% MoM. (Source: Bloomberg)

S. Korea: Industrial output rises less than estimated in October . Output advanced 13.5% YoY compared to a median forecast for a 15.1% YoY gain. Production fell 4.2% MoM on a monthly basis, the third straight decline. (Source: Bloomberg) 

Thailand: May refrain from rate increase as growth risks climb
The Bank of Thailand may refrain from raising its policy interest rate, keeping borrowing costs unchanged for a second consecutive meeting as risks to the nation’s economic recovery increase. The central bank will leave its benchmark one-day bond repurchase rate at 1.75%, according to 12 out of 17 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The rest expect a quarter-percentage-point increase. (Bloomberg)

UK: Trims growth forecasts, sees no change in deficit
The British economy faces a “sluggish” outlook with the recovery likely to be slower than after previous recessions, the Treasury’s fiscal watchdog said. The Office for Budget Responsibility cut its 2011 growth forecast today to 2.1% from 2.3% and said the economy will expand 2.6% in 2012 instead of 2.8%. Growth will be faster than expected this year, it said. (Bloomberg)

Australia: GDP probably hit ‘soft patch’ as rates, currency rose
Australia’s economic growth slowed last quarter as higher borrowing costs and less government stimulus weakened the housing market, while a stronger currency hurt exports, economists predicted. Gross domestic product advanced 0.5% from the previous three months, when it grew 1.2%, according to the median of 24 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey.(Bloomberg)

EU: Irish rescue fails to stem turmoil; Spain bonds drop
European governments’ EUR85bn (USD113bn) bailout package for Ireland failed to quell the market turmoil menacing the euro as stocks, bonds and the currency declined. Irish 10-year bonds slid after an early advance, Spanish bonds fell by the most since the euro’s launch and European shares sank 1.4%. The euro weakened against 15 of its 16 major counterparts and the cost of insuring the debt of Spain and Portugal against default soared to records.(Bloomberg)

EU: European economic confidence rises to three-year high
European confidence in the economic outlook improved to the highest in three years in November as Germany’s export-driven growth helped counter concerns that a spreading sovereign-debt crisis will hurt the recovery. An index of executive and consumer sentiment in the 16 euro nations rose to 105.3 from 103.8 in October, the European Commission in Brussels said in a statement. That’s the highest since November 2007. Economists forecast a gain to 105, the median of 26 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey shows. (Bloomberg)

US: Monthly job growth to double, RDQ’s Ryding says
Payrolls in the US are poised to grow by about 200,000 a month, double the pace so far this year, said John Ryding of RDQ Economics in New York. Employment increased by 145,000 workers this month after a 151,000 gain in October that marked the biggest advance since May, according to the median forecast of 82 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News ahead of Labor Department data.(Bloomberg)

20101130 0931 Malaysia Corporate News.

MISC: Selling older liner vessels. National carrier MISC Bhd could sell three of its smaller container vessels consisting of Bunga Bidara, Bunga Delima and Bunga Kenari. The three vessels are surplus to its requirements and a sale can be concluded without hassle. (Source: The Edge Financial Daily)

Funds: RM1b real estate fund for bumiputras launched. Pelaburan Hartanah Bhd (PHB) launched its RM1b Amanah Hartanah Bumiputera (AHB) investment fund. The fund would enable bumiputra investors to own real estate assets with a minimum investment of RM500. The fund's underlying assets are CP Tower in Petaling Jaya, 26 Boulevard in Putrajaya, Wisma Consplant in Subang Jaya, Tesco Setia Alam and Industrial Complex in Shah Alam. (Source: The Star)

Mining: Vale to invest RM500m in Perak. Brazil's Vale SA has approved plans to invest as much as RM500m in Perak next year to help build a maritime terminal and a stockyard in Teluk Rubiah, near the Straits of Malacca. The distribution centre is for a pelletising plant, which converts raw iron ore into pellets that are used in steel production. Vale intends to use Teluk Rubiah as its main base to export the materials to the Far East, especially China. (Source: Business Times)

E&E: Investments to exceed RM5b this year. Malaysian Investment Development Authority (Mida) expects total investments in the electronics and electrical (E&E) sector this year to exceed RM5b from about RM4.7b in 2009. The top investors were from the United States, Germany, Japan, and Taiwan. Mida is negotiating to bring in fresh investments for solar power, wireless communication, cloud computing and light-emitting diodes industries next year. (Source: The Star)

Plantation: Sarawak to double oil palm plantation area. Sarawak, which recorded its fastest pace in opening up land for oil palm cultivation in the past one year, targets to double its plantation area to two million hectares. State Land Development Minister Datuk Dr James Masing was optimistic that the new target could be reached by 2020, making Sarawak the biggest crude palm oil producing state in Malaysia. (Source: The Star)

Petra Energy front runner for Petronas job
Three companies - Petra Energy, Carimin SB and Shapadu Corp SB - are understood to have emerged as the front runners to bag retro-fitting, hook-up and commissioning jobs for oilfields located in Peninsular and East Malaysia from Petroliam Nasional (PETRONAS), industry sources said. According to sources, the contracts are valued at RM1.2bn in total and could be evenly broken down to three parcels of RM400m between Sabah, Sarawak and Peninsular Malaysia. Petra Energy is understood to have almost secured the Sarawak portion, while Carimin is close to bagging the Sabah job. Shapadu, meanwhile, is said to be the front runner to get the retrofitting, hook-up and commissioning jobs for Peninsular Malaysia. (Financial Daily)

Integrax sees LMT tagged at no less than RM250m
Port operator Integrax may consider selling its stake in Lumut Maritime Terminal SB (LMT) for a price tag of no less than RM125m. “I think the value of LMT would be in excess of a quarter billion (RM250m),” Harun Halim Rasip, joint chief executive of Integrax said. Currently, Integrax has a 50% minus one share in LMT while Perak Corp, via its unit Taipan Merit SB has a 50% plus one share in LMT.(Financial Daily)

Pos Malaysia ventures into e-commerce
Pos Malaysia is hoping to tap into the vast e-commerce business to broaden its revenue base by launching its new online shopping portal, Post-Me.com.my. Pos Malaysia’s Group Managing Director and CEO Datuk Syed Faisal Albar added that Pos Malaysia would invest about RM3m-RM5m on the online portal and the venture would derive 5% to 10% profit for every product sold. (FinancialDaily)

Study on proposed Proton-Perodua merger completed
A study on a possible merger between the country's top two national car companies has been completed, International Trade and Industry Minister (Miti) Datuk Seri Mustapa Mohamed said. Miti is setting a date by the year-end to discuss a third-party's research findings on the possible merger between Proton Holdings and Perusahaan Otomobil Kedua SB. The study was carried out by Frost & Sullivan. (Btimes)

MCMC: No 700MHz allocation to YTL so far
MCMC has come to clarify that no spectrum assignment on the 700MHz frequency band has been issued to YTL so far. This follows reports by media that YTL Communications as been granted an extra spectrum licence compared with other incumbents. The operating issued to YTL is to offer pay TV broadcasting using 700 MHz band. MCMC added that it is currently studying YTL’s detailed business plan to roll out its digital pay TV slated to be launched next year with US-based Sezmi Corp. (FinancialDaily)

20101130 0926 Global Market News.

Oil retraces after jump, holds above $85
SINGAPORE, Nov 30 (Reuters) - Oil slipped,  retracing part of the sharp gains seen in the previous  session, while traders awaited further evidence that  inventories were draining amid hopes of a surge in demand for  heating in sight.    
"Investors are in a wait-and-see attitude, holding for  some positive news to boost prices further," said Serene Lim,  a Singapore-based oil analyst at ANZ. 

Malaysia govt rolls out tax incentives for oil and gas development
KUALA LUMPUR, Nov 30 (Reuters) - Malaysia government on  Tuesday announced new tax incentives to develop the country's  oil and gas reosurces, which will be implemented by state oil  firm Petronas.
Petronas manages the Southeast Asian country's oil and gas resources. 

Wheat up for 4th day on weather concerns;corn, soy steady
SINGAPORE, Nov 30 (Reuters) - Chicago wheat futures  bounced half a percent, rising for a fourth  straight session as adverse weather across the U.S. winter  crop areas and excessive rains in Australia continued to  support the market.
"The headline story for wheat has certainly been in  excessive rains in Australia, also they are also talking about  cold weather and not too much rain for hard red belt in the  U.S.," said Brett Cooper, a senior manager of markets at  FCStone Australia. 

Gold steady; Europe, Koreas cloud market outlook
SINGAPORE, Nov 30 (Reuters) - Spot gold was steady aided by physical buying, while investors continued  to watch the progress in euro zone's debt problem and tensions  in the Korean peninsula for trading cues. 
"We are in a period during which the market really doesn&#8217t know which direction things are heading. The European situation is still very uncertain. We had supposedly the solution of the Irish situation, but it didn't seem to please  the markets too much," said Darren Heathcote, head of trading  at Investec Australia. 

OIL: Crude steady after jump on cold weather
SINGAPORE, Nov 30 (Reuters) - Oil was steady near $86 on Tuesday after rising more than 2 percent a day earlier, led by futures of heating fuels including gas oil, as cold weather gripped northern Europe, raising expectations of higher consumption.
A Reuters oil poll showed most analysts revising price estimates higher, while a Reuters survey of OPEC showed  slightly better compliance with production target limits.

COMMODITY MARKETS: Oil surges above $85, wheat higher on weather
CHICAGO, Nov 29 (Reuters) - Oil surged over 2 percent to a two-week high above $85 on Monday, while gold rose $6 an ounce but grains were mixed in subdued trade as commodities looked past the rising dollar to refocus on market-specific fundamentals.
"There is a holiday trading pattern that is starting to develop. I think a lot of people will step to the sidelines through the holidays and stay out of trouble," said Shawn McCambridge, an analyst for Prudential Bache Commodities.  

GLOBAL MARKETS: Stocks slip, dollar up as Irish bailout joy fades
NEW YORK, Nov 29 (Reuters) - Global stocks fell and the greenback rose as investors' optimism about Ireland's 85-billion-euro ($115 bln) debt bailout waned, exposing the unappetizing prospect that Europe's fiscal problems will linger.
"Tell me what the euro's going to do and I'll tell you where the (stock) market is going to go," said Michael James, senior trader at regional investment bank Wedbush Morgan in Los Angeles.

France,Germany say euro saved, investors sceptical
BERLIN/PARIS, Nov 29 (Reuters) - Germany and France declared on Monday that Europe had taken decisive action to save the euro by rescuing Ireland and laying the foundations of a permanent debt resolution system, but investors were not convinced.
Under pressure to arrest the threat to the currency before markets opened and prevent contagion engulfing Portugal and Spain, EU finance ministers endorsed an 85 billion-euro ($115 billion) loan package on Sunday to help Dublin cover bad bank debts and bridge a huge budget deficit.

China c.bank official plays down FX inflow worries
SHANGHAI, Nov 29 (Reuters) - A set of data published by the People's Bank of China shows capital inflows jumped in October, reinforcing the government's rationale for a slew of recent monetary tightening steps.
The central bank and Chinese institutions spent 519 billion yuan ($78 billion) to absorb foreign exchange flowing into China last month, according to Reuters calculations based on the latest "Position for Forex Purchases" data published over the weekend.

PRECIOUS-Gold retreats as euro zone debt woes support dollar
LONDON, Nov 29 (Reuters) - Gold eased below $1,360 an ounce in Europe on Monday, surrendering earlier gains, as the dollar hit a fresh two-month high versus the euro amid concerns over debt levels in some parts of the euro zone.
Portugal is the next country that may struggle with its sovereign debt levels, investors fear, after both Greece and Ireland were forced to seek bailouts from the European Union earlier this year.

FOREX-Euro near 2-mth low, focus on Portugal, Spain
LONDON, Nov 29 (Reuters) - The euro hovered near two-month lows against the dollar on Monday as investors looked past a rescue package for Ireland to debt problems in other peripheral euro zone economies and sold the currency on any bounce.
European Union finance ministers endorsed an 85 billion euro package to help Dublin cover bad bank debts and bridge its budget deficit, and approved outlines of a permanent crisis- resolution system which could make private bond holders share the burden of restructuring sovereign debt after 2013.

Euro struggles despite Irish deal, doubts abound
SYDNEY, Nov 29 (Reuters) - Doubts over whether a rescue  deal for debt-soaked Ireland can plug Europe's debt crisis  drove the euro to two-month lows, though shares in  Europe and Asia managed to move higher.
"There are still lingering worries about the rest of the  countries, including Portugal and Spain," said Lorraine Tan,  the director of Asian equity research at Standard & Poor's.

Biofuel market to grow in 2011 on LatAm, higher oil
KUALA LUMPUR, Nov 29 (Reuters) - Global biodiesel output  may rise by a fifth to 21.6 million tonnes in 2011 as South  American nations push on with their mandates and competing  crude oil prices continue to rise, a key analyst said on Monday.
Biofuel output will hit 18 million tonnes this year and  the rising trend may contribute to tighter vegetable oil  supplies in the coming months and lift prices, said Chris de  Lavigne, Global Vice President of Industrial Practices at  Frost & Sullivan.

20101130 0924 Soy Oil & Palm Oil Related News.

ITS CPO export up 11.7% to 1,512,250 tonnes for the period of 1~30 Nov 2010.
SGS CPO export up 19.2% to 1,569,314 tonnes for the period of 1~30 Nov 2010.  

Soy product futures inched lower, sliding in unison with declines in soybeans. Soyoil futures drifted lower in late dealings, as end of the session profit taking overcame early strength from spillover support from crude oil and higher world vegoil markets, analysts said. CBOT January soyoil ended 0.03 cents or 0.06% lower at 49.87 cents per pound, and January soymeal traded $0.50 or 0.1% lower at $338.60 a short ton.(Source: CME)

Rains Forecast For Brazil's Main Soy, Cane Regions In Dec (Source: CME)
Brazil's main soy and sugarcane growing regions are expected to begin receiving summer rains in the first half of December, according to private weather service Somar in a report. Cold fronts should cause rainfall in the producing regions of southeastern and center-west Brazil. The regions also should register isolated rains in the afternoon called summer rains, according to the weather service. The cold fronts should extend to northeastern and northern Brazil in the second half of December, also benefiting growers in the states of Bahia, Maranhao and Piaui, Somar said in its weekly bulletin. Somar, though, forecast little rainfall in southern Brazil for the next two weeks.
Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil's southernmost state and an important producer of soybeans and rice, is forecast to continue with the dry weather observed since October in the southern part of the state, according to Paulo Etchichury, managing director of Somar. The outlook is better for Parana, Brazil's second-largest producer state of soybeans after Mato Grosso, according to Somar. Parana, also in southern Brazil, should have rainfall, especially on the weekend, the service said. The rain in Parana should extend to Santa Catarina state and the north of Rio Grande do Sul state, according to the report.

Malaysia palm oil at 2-week top on weather, Irish bailout
KUALA LUMPUR, Nov 29 (Reuters) - Malaysian crude palm oil  futures  hit a two-week high as caution  receded after European authorities agreed to bail out Ireland  and concerns grew over the weather in oilseed growing regions.
"There appears to be a lot of bullish sentiment and palm  oil got its latest cue from crude oil, which also jumped on  the Irish news," said a trader with a domestic commodities  brokerage.

Argentina soy planting makes patchy progress - govt
BUENOS AIRES, Nov 26 (Reuters) - Showers in Argentine agricultural regions have allowed farmers to restart 2010/11 soy seeding, but dryness in part of the farm belt delayed planting in some areas, the government said on Friday.
Argentina is the world's No. 3 soybean supplier and the government has forecast soy area at 18.65 million hectares (46.08 million acres), slightly above last season.

Weather, economic concerns in focus at Bali palm oil meet
KUALA LUMPUR, Nov 29 (Reuters) - Traders will assess the  impact of erratic weather on palm oil output at an annual  Indonesian industry meeting this week, debating on whether a  La Nina can touch off a price rally in 2011.
But palm oil's  tumble of more than 8 percent in  the last three weeks, sparked by Irish debt woes and news of  China's plans to rein in food-driven inflation, suggests a  fragile economic recovery may overshadow weather problems.