Tuesday, November 27, 2012

20121127 1815 FCPO EOD Daily Chart Study.

FCPO closed : 2410, changed : -22 points, volume : lower.
Bollinger band reading : correction range bound downside biased.
MACD Histogram : turned downward, buyer seller battling.
Support : 2400, 2350, 2300, 2250 level.
Resistance : 2450, 2490, 2520, 2550 level.
Comment :
FCPO closed recorded loss with slowing down volume exchanged. Soy oil price currently trading little firmer after overnight closed recorded moderate gains while crude oil price currently moving higher.
Price still facing seller pressure despite rival soy oil price trading higher amid slowing down demand concern.
Daily chart study remained calling a correction range bound downside biased market development with price failed to sustain above middle Bollinger band level.
When to buy : buy at support or weakness with quick cut loss and profit target.
When to sell : sell at resistant or strength with quick cut loss and profit target.

20121127 1755 FKLI EOD Daily Chart Study.

FKLI closed : 1598 changed : -7 points, volume : higher.
Bollinger band reading : downside biased.
MACD Histogram : turned downward, seller still in.
Support :  1595, 1590, 1580, 1570 level.
Resistance : 1600, 1610, 1615, 1623 level.
Comment :
FKLI continue to closed weaker with increased volume transacted almost on par with cash market that also fell lower. Overnight U.S markets closed lower and today Asia markets ended mixed while European markets currently trading higher.
Remained unsolved U.S. fiscal cliff issue and Europe reached agreement on Greece debt development resulted global markets to react differently.
FKLI daily chart reading still calling a down side biased market development with roll over activities picking up.
When to buy : buy at support or weakness with quick cut loss and profit target.
When to sell : sell at resistance or strength with quick cut loss and profit target.

20121127 1610 Global Markets & Commodities Related News.

STOCKS: European stock futures pointed to a higher open, tracking Asian markets, with sentiment improving after Greece's lenders agreed on cutting the country's debt, a step towards releasing the next instalment of aid for Athens. Wall Street slipped on Monday, pulling back from last week's gains, as retailers fell on concerns about heavy discounts at the start of the U.S. holiday shopping season and the overhang of the "fiscal cliff" kept investors wary of making big bets. (Reuters)

FOREX-Euro hits 1-month high on Greece deal; yen retreats
SYDNEY/SINGAPORE, Nov 27 (Reuters) - The euro hit a one-month high versus the dollar after a deal on a new debt target for Greece but the gains proved fleeting as an agreement had been largely priced in, and some analysts said the single currency could start to lose momentum.
"It was not a huge reaction because (the deal) was already priced in," said Joseph Capurso, a strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, adding that the euro could ease by around a cent by the end of the week.

Euro zone, IMF secure deal on cutting long-term Greek debt (Reuters)
Euro zone finance ministers and the International Monetary Fund clinched agreement on reducing Greece's debt on Monday in a breakthrough to release urgently needed loans to keep the near-bankrupt economy afloat.

GRAINS: Wheat struck a one-week high after the USDA said the condition of the winter crop hit an all-time November low, following dry weather. Soybeans rose nearly 1 percent to a two-week high on concerns over unfavourable crop weather in Brazil, while corn also firmed.  (Reuters)

China to raise hybrid rice yield by 11 pct by 2015-Xinhua (Reuters)
China, the world's top rice producer and consumer, aims to improve its super-hybrid rice yield by a further 11 percent by 2015 as part of its efforts to maintain food self-sufficiency, the official Xinhua news agency reported on Tuesday.

POLL-US crude stockpiles seen rising on higher imports (Reuters)
U.S. crude oil and gasoline inventories were forecast to have risen last week due to higher imports, a preliminary Reuters poll of four analysts showed on Monday.

High demand means world needs all of Canada's oil –IEA (Reuters)
Global demand for crude is growing so strongly that the world needs "every single drop of Canadian oil," the International Energy Agency's chief economist said on Monday, playing down fears that growing U.S. production could hit Canadian exports.

OIL: Brent crude rose above $111 per barrel as optimism coursed through financial markets after Greece's international lenders reached a deal on a new debt target, although worries about a looming U.S. fiscal crisis kept a lid on gains.  (Reuters)

Italy's ILVA says faces closure over steel seizure (Reuters)
Italy's ILVA said it may have to close Europe's biggest steel plant after judges ordered the seizure of steel and semi-finished products in a corruption probe that saw several managers arrested on Monday.

BASE METALS: London copper rose near a one-month high early after lenders secured an aid deal for Greece, boosting the euro and building on confidence about global demand for the metal sparked by signs of an economic revival in top consumer China.  (Reuters)

PRECIOUS METALS: Gold traded in a tight range above $1,748 an ounce as traders moved to the sidelines after initially pushing up bullion by almost $3 following a deal among Greece's international lenders.  (Reuters)

METALS-Copper near one-month high on Greek debt deal
SINGAPORE, Nov 27 (Reuters) - London copper rose near a one-month high early after lenders secured an aid deal for Greece, which boosted the euro and enhanced confidence about global demand for the metal sparked by signs of an economic revival in top consumer China.
"That's absolutely the right step," said head of commodity research at UBS Wealth Management Dominic Schnider, adding that a resolution to the uncertainties overshadowing Greece and the U.S. economy by year-end should steady global growth prospects and set the stage for gains in metals prices next year.
PRECIOUS-Gold steadies around $1,750/oz after Greek debt deal
SINGAPORE, Nov 27 (Reuters) - Gold traded in a tight range  around $1,750 an ounce as traders moved to the  sidelines after initially pushing up bullion by almost $3  following a deal among Greece's international lenders to cut the country's long-term debt.
"There is a lot of apathy towards the Europe situation right now," said a Hong Kong-based trader, adding that many investors  have chosen to sit on the sidelines as the month-end approaches, and some of them are closing books for the year.

20121127 1542 Palm Oil Related News.

VEGOILS-Palm oil slips, Greek deal supports
Tue Nov 27, 2012 12:33am EST
* Prices touch near 1-week high at 2,458 ringgit on euro
zone optimism
    * Palm oil to revisit high of 2,485 ringgit -technicals
    * China's palm stocks to hit 1 mln T by year-end -CNGOIC

 (Updates prices, adds detail)
    By Chew Yee Kiat
    SINGAPORE, Nov 27 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures
edged down on Tuesday, as traders booked profits from a near
one-week high after Greece's international lenders agreed on a
financial aid deal that boosted market optimism.
    On the local front, investors are watching Malaysian palm
oil output to gauge whether stocks will reach another record
high, especially after the latest cargo surveyor data pointed to
weaker export demand.
    "Demand is tepid with rumours that India may import on
domestic shortfall. Speculators are also seen pushing up futures
amid optimism that output in the fourth quarter will avert the
looming 'supply cliff'," said a trader with a local commodities
brokerage in Malaysia.
    By the midday break, the benchmark February contract
 on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange fell 0.1
percent to 2,430 ringgit ($796) per tonne, after going as high
as 2,458 ringgit, a level last seen on Nov. 21.
    Total traded volumes stood at 12,893 lots of 25 tonnes each,
slightly higher than the usual 12,500 lots.
    Technicals showed palm oil would revisit its Nov. 20 high of
2,485 per tonne based on a wave analysis, said Reuters market
analyst Wang Tao.  
    Cargo surveyor data showed a slight decline of below 2
percent for Malaysian palm oil shipments in the first 25 days of
November from a month ago
    The market, however, expects weaker palm oil prices to
stimulate demand for price-sensitive market such as India and
Pakistan in the weeks to come.  
    China might be a different story as rising stocks slow
    Palm oil stocks in China could hit one million tonnes by
year-end, up from 790,000 tonnes last week, thanks to surging
imports and a stagnant domestic demand, said the China National
Grain and Oils Information Centre in a report on its website
    Brent crude rose above $111 per barrel on Tuesday after
Greece's international lenders reached a deal on a new debt
target, although worries about a looming U.S. fiscal crisis kept
a lid on gains.
    In other vegetable oil markets, U.S. soyoil for December
delivery inched up 0.5 percent in early Asian trade. The
most-active May 2013 soybean oil contract on the Dalian
Commodity Exchange edged up 0.3 percent.

20121127 1111 Global Markets & Energy Related News.

GLOBAL MARKETS-Asian shares, euro rise on Greek debt deal
NEW YORK, Nov 26 (Reuters) - The euro hit a one-month high and Asian shares climbed for a seventh straight day after a deal on new debt targets for Greece and a political agreement on disbursing the next installment of aid.
"Although somewhat anticipated by the market, the successful agreement over Greece's emergency aid is expected to be an upside influence," Um Tae-woong, an analyst at Bookook Securities, said of Seoul shares.

FOREX-Euro firm after Greek deal, yen edges up
SYDNEY, Nov 27 (Reuters) - The euro was caught in choppy trade after euro zone and International Monetary Fund officials clinched agreement on a new debt target for Greece in a significant step towards releasing a much-needed aid package for Athens.
"It was not a huge reaction because (the deal) was already priced in," said Joseph Capurso, a strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

OIL - Oil falls on concerns about Greece debt, U.S. budget
NEW YORK, Nov 26 (Reuters) - Oil prices fell on Monday as concerns about Greek debt talks and U.S. budget negotiations outweighed worries about potential Middle East supply disruptions.
"Crude is feeling some pressure from the concerns about Greece and Spain, and the nagging worries about the fiscal cliff, with the stock market lower and the dollar index strengthening adding some pressure," said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures Group in Chicago.

Euro zone, IMF reach deal on cutting long-term Greek debt
BRUSSELS, Nov 26 (Reuters) - Euro zone finance ministers and the International Monetary Fund clinched agreement on a new debt target for Greece on Monday in a breakthrough towards releasing an urgently needed tranche of loans to the near-bankrupt economy, officials said.
After nearly 10 hours of talks at their third meeting on the issue in as many weeks, Greece's international lenders agreed to reduce Greek debt by 40 billion euros, cutting it to 124 percent of gross domestic product by 2020, via a package of steps.

High demand means world needs all of Canada's oil -IEA
Nov 26 (Reuters) - Global demand for crude is growing so strongly that the world needs "every single drop of Canadian oil," the International Energy Agency's chief economist said on Monday, playing down fears that growing U.S. production could hit Canadian exports.
Fatih Birol said that even if U.S. output rises as much as the agency expects, the country would still need to import four million barrels a day and that Canada is an obvious supplier.

POLL-US crude stockpiles seen rising on higher imports
Nov 26 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil and gasoline inventories were forecast to have risen last week due to higher imports, a preliminary Reuters poll of four analysts showed on Monday.
Crude inventories were seen up 1.3 million barrels for the week that ended Nov. 23, with three out of four analysts predicting a build. Total U.S. crude oil inventories fell 1.47 million barrels in the week to Nov. 16 to 374.47 million barrels, data from the U.S. EIA showed. Crude supplies are expected to show a small build mainly as a result of an expected rebound in imports from the low levels reported in the previous, said Jim Ritterbusch, president of Ritterbusch & Associates in Galena, Illinois.  U.S. crude imports fell 102,000 barrels per day to 7.73 million bpd in the week to Nov. 16, EIA data showed.

Iran may slash oil sales outlook, store more as sanctions bite
Nov 26 (Reuters) - Iran's state budget for the next fiscal year may assume exports of just 1 million barrels of oil a day, an Iranian budget planning commission member told the semi-official Fars news agency on Monday, about half volumes shipped in 2011.
"Apparently, the government wants to decrease the 1392 (the next Iranian year starting on March 21) state budget's reliance on oil exports to one million barrels a day," parliamentarian Gholamreza Mesbahi Moqaddam was quoted as saying by Fars.

Nigerian oil export delays worsen, exports fall
GENEVA, Nov 26 (Reuters) - Nigerian oil exports are set to fall to below 2 million barrels per day (bpd) in January and delays on a key grade doubled to nearly a month, indicating that supply problems in the leading African producer are far from over.
Nigeria is among the world's top 10 crude oil exporters and usually ships over 2 million bpd, but a major fire caused by oil theft, an Exxon spill and flooding have severely hit output.

Enbridge to ship Bakken crude to Philadelphia via rail
Nov 26 (Reuters) - Enbridge Inc , Canada's No. 2 pipeline company, plans to develop rail facilities to deliver 80,000 barrels per day of light oil from North Dakota's prolific Bakken shale oil field to refineries around Philadelphia.
The company said on Monday it will have a 75 percent stake in Eddystone Rail Co, a $68 million project to upgrade existing tracks to accommodate 120-car trains. Enbridge will also lease a power generation facility, refurbish a 200,000-barrel tank and work on Philadelphia-area pipelines to deliver crude. Privately owned Canopy Prospecting Inc will own the remaining 25 percent.

Petrobras output falls again in Oct, CEO sees upturn
Nov 26 (Reuters) - Brazilian state-led oil company Petrobras  said Monday that year-on-year output of petroleum and natural gas had fallen for a fifth straight month in October as maintenance in the offshore Campos Basin slowed ambitious expansion plans.
During the month, Petrobras produced an average 2.58 million barrels of oil and natural gas equivalent a day (boepd) in Brazil and abroad, 1.3 percent less than 2.62 million boepd in October 2011, the Rio de Janeiro-based company said in a statement.

South Sudan says Sudan poses new obstacle to oil sales
Nov 26 (Reuters) - Sudan has put a new obstacle in the way of allowing its land-locked southern neighbour to pipe its oil to the Red Sea, South Sudanese President Salva Kiir said on Monday, dashing plans to revive production after an 11-month break.
Sudan's currency fell to a historic low against the dollar on the black market on Monday, highlighting the importance for both countries to get oil from South Sudan's oilfields via the north for export.

20121127 1053 Global Economy Related News.

UK: Canada’s Carney chosen to replace King as Governor of BOE
Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney was unexpectedly named the head of the Bank of England as the U.K. government looked abroad for a candidate untainted by financial turmoil to lead the beefed-up central bank. Carney’s London posting comes after a series of trading scandals dented the capital’s status as the world’s leading financial centre, prompting a rejig of regulations that will test skills of the Canadian elected as the head of the world’s banking watchdog. His chief rival for the job, BOE Deputy Governor Paul Tucker, became entangled in the Libor rate-rigging scandal earlier this year. (Bloomberg)

EU: Italian consumer confidence falls to record low on recession
Italian consumer confidence fell to a record low this month as households grew more pessimistic about the economic outlook after the country’s fourth recession since 2001 entered its second year. The confidence index fell to 84.8, the lowest since the series began in 1996, from a revised 86.2 in October, the national statistics office, Istat, said in Rome. The reading was lower than the median forecast of 86.3 in a survey of 13 economists by Bloomberg News. The Italian economy shrank for a fifth quarter in the three months through September as export gains failed to offset the effects of weak domestic demand. (Bloomberg)

NZ: New Zealand annual trade deficit widens to most in three years
New Zealand’s annual trade deficit swelled more than economists forecast to the widest in more than three years as falling prices and a rising currency curbed returns from milk and butter exports. Imports exceeded exports by NZD1.4bn (USD1.1bn) in the 12 months ended 31 Oct, compared with a revised NZD875m shortfall in the year through September, Statistics New Zealand said today in Wellington. Exports fell 1.4% from the year ended 31 Oct 2011, while imports rose 3%. (Bloomberg)

CN: China search for PBOC chief spurs focus on finance regulators
China’s likely search for a successor to Zhou Xiaochuan as its central bank chief is spurring the focus on the nation’s banking and securities regulators as the incoming Communist leadership overhauls top government positions. Guo Shuqing, 56, and Shang Fulin, 61, have both run one of China’s four largest banks, worked as a deputy central bank governor and currently head regulatory agencies -- matching the profile of Zhou, 64, when he took the helm of the People’s Bank of China in 2002. As a securities regulator, Guo has accelerated the pace that predecessor Shang set for opening up to foreign investors, suggesting he could favor faster deregulation of financial markets. (Bloomberg)

US: Overnight rates surge in Fed’s Operation Twist
You wouldn’t know the Federal Reserve has done nothing but add to its record monetary stimulus from looking at short-term funding markets. The federal funds effective rate on overnight loans between banks was 0.16% on 21 Nov, up from 0.06% at the end of Sept 2011, the month Fed officials announced they would begin swapping short-term securities in their portfolio for long-term debt under Operation Twist. The rate for borrowing and lending Treasuries for one day through repurchase agreements also has surged. Higher overnight interest costs are a side effect of Operation Twist, which have persisted despite new accommodation. (Bloomberg)

20121127 1053 Malaysia Corporate Related News.

Petronas makes two big gas discoveries in offshore Sarawak
Petroliam Nasional has made two major gas discoveries in offshore Sarawak with total gas-in-place of 4.4 trn standard cubic feet (tscf). Petronas said on Monday the Kuang North field in Block SK316 was drilled in October via two exploration wells, Kuang North-1 and Kuang North-2. The Kuang North-2 well, drilled to a total depth of 3,223 metres, penetrated 636 metres of gas column. "Preliminary assessments indicated that gas-in-place for the Kuang North field is about 2.3 (tscf) net hydrocarbon," it said. The second gas discovery was the Tukau Timur Deep-1, the first completed high pressure high temperature (HPHT) well in Sarawak. (StarBiz)

Malaysia’s only listed oil recycler Hiap Huat opens 62.5% higher at 32.5 sen
Used oil recycler Hiap Huat Holdings made a strong debut on the ACE Market of Bursa Malaysia on Monday, opening 62.5% higher at 32.5 sen. At 9am, it was up 12.5 sen to 32.5 sen amidst very active trade. The company raised about RM17m from the initial public offer (IPO). The IPO comprised of 85m new 10 sen shares. The shareholders had also offered for sale 50m existing shares. Hiap Huat Holdings' core activity is in collecting, recycling, re-refining and producing recycled products, and it is the only such listed company on the Malaysian stock exchange. (StarBiz)

Hard landing for Malaysia Airports
Malaysia Airports Holdings' (MAHB) shares slid a day after it emerged that the airport operator may join the fray in making an estimated RM5bn bid for the UK's Stansted Airport, a move some aviation analysts are not too keen on. The shares fell by 2.6%, or 14 sen, to RM5.34 in its fifth consecutive day of decline. The broader FBM KLCI index eased 0.4% in comparison, to 1,607.88. Stansted is the fourth busiest airport in the UK and a hub for a number of major European low-cost carriers like Ryanair, which dominates 70% of passenger traffic. MAHB has so far declined to comment on news reports of its supposed interest in Stansted. (BT)

Cuscapi announces corporate exercise
Cuscapi announced that it was transferring its listing status from the ACE Market to the Main Market of Bursa Malaysia. The company also announced a renounceable rights issue on the basis of one rights share for every two Cuscapi shares held. The company proposed the issuance of 146.7m warrants on the basis of one free warrant for every rights shares subscribed, and is undertaking a bonus issue on the basis of one bonus share for every two rights share subscribed. In facilitating its proposals, Cuscapi will also increase its paid-up capital to RM120m from RM60m currently. (Malaysian Reserve)

P&O gets nod for 49% sale to South African company
General insurer Pacific & Orient (P&O) has been given the nod from the Ministry of Finance and Bank Negara Malaysia to dispose of a 49% stake in the company to a South African financial services company, Sanlam Emerging Markets Proprietory Ltd. Talks between the two parties began in the middle of the year and this clearance will create a second mergers and acquisitions (M&A) play in the insurance sector after the merger between Kurnia Insurans and AmG Insurance. The company stated that the proposed divestment is subject to the execution of the sale and purchase agreement. (Malaysian Reserve)

Airasia denies buying Indian budget carrier
AirAsia has denied market rumour that it is buying the loss-making Indian budget carrier. Its group executive officer Tan Sri Tony Fernandes said "AirAsia rejects the speculation surrounding our possible expansion in India. These reports are completely incorrect. AirAsia has not submitted a bid for the Indian budget carrier and has no intention of doing so." Fernandes was responding to a Reuters report yesterday that AirAsia is in talks to acquire a stake of up to 49% in the Indian low cost carrier. Reuters quoted an Indian government source saying that Abu Dhabi's Etihad Airways is also in talks with Jet Airways. (Financial Daily)

CIMB: Provides USD140m financing to Akara Mining. CIMB Thai and CIMB Bank Malaysia have jointly signed an agreement to provide USD140m (MYR427m) financing to Akara Mining Ltd, a listed company on the Australian Securities Exchange, under Kingsgate Consolidated Ltd (KSL). The credit support to the Australian-based company that invests in Thailand, reflects CIMB's robust efforts across the Asia-Pacific region and highlights its image as a leading Asean bank. (Source: Business Times)

DRB-Hicom: Sale of Lotus an option for DRB-Hicom. DRB-Hicom Bhd is considering its options on Lotus, including disposing of its stake in the UK-based automotive engineering company. It has been speculated that Aston Martin and a company from China have indicated interest to buy over Lotus. (Source: The Edge Financial Daily)

Time Engineering: Lim leaves in a huff. Time Engineering Bhd's (TEB) CEO Steven Lim Kee Seng tendered his resignation abruptly yesterday due to difference of opinion with the board. (Source: The Edge Financial Daily)

iCapital: Tussle again? An off-market transaction of three million shares of iCapital.biz Bhd has raised suspicion of a possible second attempt by some shareholders to seek board representation on the listed closed-end fund. The shares were transacted on Nov 21 at an undisclosed price and represented 2% of iCapital.biz's shares. (Source: The Star)

20121127 1023 Global Markets Related News.

Asian Stocks Gain as Official Says Greece Deal Reached (Bloomberg)
Asian stocks gained for a fifth day after a European Union official said euro-area finance ministers reached agreements on Greece’s debt burden and its funding gap, concluding more than 12 hours of talks. CSL Ltd. (CSL), the world’s second-biggest maker of blood-derived therapies, surged 7.3 percent in Sydney to a record after saying it expects profit growth of about 20 percent. Rio Tinto Group and BHP Billiton Ltd. led gains among raw-material companies. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index (MXAP) advanced 0.3 percent to 123.72 as of 9:34 a.m. in Tokyo, before markets opened in China and Hong Kong, extending the benchmark’s longest winning streak since the second week of September. The gauge rose 13 percent from this year’s low on June 4 through yesterday as central banks added stimulus to spur economic growth and data showed a slowdown in China may be ending.
“It’s never simple,” said Tim Schroeders, who helps manage $1 billion at Pengana Capital Ltd. in Melbourne. “We are still trying to work out what the ramifications are of what’s been agreed and the details.”

Japanese Stocks Head for Four-Day Gain on Greek Debt Deal (Bloomberg)
Nov. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Japanese stocks headed for a four- day advance on a report euro-zone finance ministers reached agreement on Greece’s debt burden. Konica Minolta Holdings Inc. (4902), an imaging-equipment maker that gets 28 percent of its sales in Europe, rose 1.4 percent. Kondotec Inc. plunged 9.1 percent after the producer of construction materials said it planned to raise as much as 713.7 million yen ($8.7 million) in a share sale. Steelmakers led declines on the Topix Index after Nippon Steel & Sumitomo Metal Corp. was downgraded by Fitch Ratings amid a global industry downturn. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average (NKY) added 0.3 percent to 9,413.45 as of 9:57 a.m. in Tokyo. The broader Topix Index advanced 0.2 percent to 781.26, with about nine stocks rising for every five that fell. Gains were limited after a technical indicator yesterday showed recent gains on the Nikkei 225 may have been excessive.
“They jumped the latest hurdle in the debt crisis, and the market is taking a sigh of relief,” said Hitoshi Asaoka, a Tokyo-based senior strategist at Mizuho Trust & Banking Co., a unit of Japan’s third-largest bank by market value. “Greece’s budget crunch will probably resurface a few times.”

U.S. Stocks Fall Amid Talks on Fiscal Cliff, Greek Aid (Bloomberg)
U.S. stocks fell, following the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index’s biggest weekly gain since June, as lawmakers prepared to debate the so-called fiscal cliff and euro-area finance ministers discuss Greek aid. UnitedHealth Group Inc. (UNH) slumped 0.7 percent after providing a profit forecast below estimates. DreamWorks Animation SKG Inc. lost 5.2 percent as “Rise of the Guardians” opened in fourth place in cinemas over the Thanksgiving weekend. Best Buy Co. and EBay Inc. (EBAY) rallied at least 4.9 percent while Macy’s Inc. (M) slumped 4.5 percent as retailers extended deals into Cyber Monday. Apple Inc. (AAPL) gained 3.2 percent as technology shares rebounded. The S&P 500 (SPX) fell 0.2 percent to 1,406.29 in New York, after the benchmark index jumped 3.6 percent last week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 42.31 points, or 0.3 percent, to 12,967.37 today. More than 5.3 billion shares traded hands on U.S. exchanges today, or 13 percent below the three-month average, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
“We’ve got a lot of negatives,” Peter Sorrentino, who helps manage about $14.6 billion of assets at Huntington Asset Advisors in Cincinnati, said in a telephone interview. “There’s the backdrop of what’s going on in the European Union with the bailouts and recapitalizing the banks. On top of that, we have issues in the U.S. with regard to our fiscal policy. That’s just enough reason at this point in time to take risk off the table and wait for more insight and clarity.” Congress returns from the Thanksgiving recess this week, seeking a budget deal to avoid $607 billion of automatic tax increases and spending cuts from kicking in next year. While Republicans favor raising federal tax revenue by limiting deductions, Democrats have pushed for higher rates on upper- income earners.

Recap Stock Index Market Report (CME)
The December S&P 500 was flat to lower for most of the session, weighed down by ongoing concerns over the European debt situation and uncertainty surrounding the US fiscal cliff. It seemed that the market might have also been held back by mixed reports on Black Friday retail sales reports, which pushed shares of Macy's down 3%. Some traders pointed to a measure of profit-taking after five consecutive higher closes as an additional force keeping stocks in negative territory. Technology related shares rallied into positive territory during the early afternoon hours, supported by a more than 2.5% gains in both the shares of Hewlett-Packard and Apple. Utility-related shares were upside leaders throughout the session.

Europe Priced for No Profit Growth Signals Stocks Rally (Bloomberg)
European stocks are trading at levels that show investors anticipate no profit growth for 2013, increasing optimism among strategists who say equities will rise to a five-year high. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index (SXXP) is priced at 11 times estimated profit, down from 13 before the financial crisis, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Even though the region entered a recession last quarter, earnings will climb almost 5 percent next year, according to the average of seven strategist forecasts in a Bloomberg survey. They predict the benchmark gauge will gain 10 percent to the highest level since 2008. While bears say 25 percent unemployment in Spain and Greece and austerity from France to Italy make expectations for any earnings growth unrealistic, Graham Bishop at Exane BNP Paribas says valuations 10 percent below historic levels show investors are too pessimistic.
Stocks are the cheapest on record compared with bonds after European Central Bank efforts to stimulate the region’s economy, presenting opportunities to buy companies from Royal Dutch Shell Plc (RDSA) to Madrid-based discounter DIA, according to Macquarie Group Ltd.’s Daniel McCormack. “There is room for further revaluation of euro-zone equities,” Nadege Dufosse, who helps oversee about $100 billion as senior asset manager at Dexia Asset Management in Luxembourg, said in a Nov. 20 phone interview. “Fundamentals are not good and will not change in the near term, but what we can expect is that the riskiness embedded in European equities will continue to decrease.”

European Stocks Decline as Ministers Debate Greek Rescue (Bloomberg)
European stocks declined, following the benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 Index’s biggest weekly rally this year, as euro-area finance ministers met for a third time this month on Greece’s finances. Barclays Plc (BARC) dropped the most in almost five months as Qatar Holding LLC disposed of its remaining warrants in the U.K. lender. ThyssenKrupp AG (TKA) slid 5.1 percent after Credit Suisse Group AG lowered its recommendation on Germany’s largest steelmaker. Straumann Holding AG rose 2.3 percent after Government of Singapore Investment Corp. increased its stake in the maker of dental implants to 14 percent. The Stoxx 600 lost 0.5 percent to 272 at the close in London, falling for the first time in six days. The gauge jumped 4 percent last week as optimism grew that Congress will agree on a U.S. budget that avoids automatic tax increases and spending cuts, and data showed China’s manufacturing expanded.
“After last week’s unbroken gains, it’s natural to have a little breather,” said Jakup Petur Baerentsen, chief equity adviser at Nordea Private Bank in Copenhagen. “The markets have started to turn upwards again after a long period of doing not very much. Of course, the political risks remain, both in Europe and also anything coming out on the U.S. fiscal cliff.” Euro-area finance ministers meet in Brussels to try to clear the next installment of Greek aid and discuss ways to keep the country a solvent member of the currency bloc. They failed to reach agreement in two previous meetings this month.

Most Emerging Stocks Advance as Crude Sinks Energy Shares (Bloomberg)
Most emerging-market stocks rose, led by consumer companies, as Japan said it will act to stimulate its economy, while sliding oil prices drove a decline in Brazilian and Russian shares. Kangwon Land Inc. (035250), the South Korean casino and hotel operator, surged 13 percent after winning approval from the government to expand its gambling business. United Co. Rusal, the world’s biggest aluminum producer, rallied to the highest level in almost two months in Moscow. A gauge of energy companies in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index (MXEF0CD) had the second- largest drop after telecommunications shares. Brazilian oil and gas explorer OGX Petroleo e Gas Participacoes SA tumbled.
The emerging markets measure retreated 0.1 percent to 995.10 in New York as 430 stocks rose and 334 fell. Crude sank as European finance chiefs met to negotiate a bailout payment for Greece and as the U.S. seeks a resolution to its so-called fiscal cliff. Minutes of the Bank of Japan’s Oct. 30 meeting showed policy makers will continue easing monetary policy to stimulate Asia’s second-largest economy. “General risk sentiment has improved,” Christian Keller, the head of emerging-market research at Barclays Plc. in London, said by phone. “Globally, it remains a mixed picture. It’s still not very clear on the real economy.” Brazil’s Bovespa Index (IBOV) lost 1.5 percent and Russia’s Micex Index (INDEXCF) fell 0.7 percent as crude oil futures dropped in New York. The Shanghai Composite Index slid 0.5 percent before the release of data on industrial profits tomorrow. Benchmark indexes in Turkey and the Czech Republic gained more than 0.6 percent. The BSE India Sensitive Index rose 0.2 percent.

Aussie Touches 2-Month High as Officials Reach Greek Deal (Bloomberg)
The Australian dollar touched its highest level in two months as euro-area finance ministers reached agreements on Greece’s debt burden and its funding gap, boosting demand for higher-yielding assets. The so-called Aussie advanced versus most of its 16 major counterparts as the ministers reached a deal after more than 12 hours of talks. New Zealand’s currency, known as the kiwi, snapped a decline from yesterday as Asian stocks climbed for a fifth-straight day. “The initial market reaction to the agreement is positive, but we await further details to see if it’s a sustainable solution,” said Callum Henderson, Singapore-based global head of currency research at Standard Chartered Plc. “At the margin, this is good news for higher-yielding currencies” such as the Aussie and kiwi, he said.
Australia’s dollar rose 0.2 percent to $1.0483 at 12:02 p.m. in Sydney after earlier touching $1.0490, the highest since Sept. 21. It was little changed at 85.92 yen. New Zealand’s currency traded at 82.28 U.S. cents, 0.1 percent above its close at 82.18 in New York. It was unchanged at 67.45 yen. Ten-year bond yields in Australia were little changed from yesterday at 3.26 percent. New Zealand’s two-year swap rate, a fixed payment made to receive floating rates, was unchanged at 2.63 percent. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index of shares gained 0.5 percent after rising 2 percent in the previous four days. Finance officials from the 17 euro nations started their meeting yesterday at 12:30 p.m. in Brussels, less than a week after an all-night gathering failed to yield agreement on Greece and days after a European Union summit broke up without a proposed seven-year budget.

Treasuries Snap Gain as Greek Deal Cuts Demand for Safety (Bloomberg)
Treasuries snapped a rally from yesterday as euro-area officials ministers agreed on a Greece aid plan, curbing demand for the relative safety of U.S. debt. Gains in Asian shares helped damp investor appetite for debt as investors prepared to bid at three note sales this week. The U.S. is scheduled to sell $35 billion of two-year securities today, the same amount of five-year debt tomorrow and $29 billion of seven-year notes on Nov. 29. “Some of the uncertainty in the European debt crisis may be resolved,” said Kazuaki Oh’e, a debt salesman in Tokyo at CIBC World Markets Japan Inc., a unit of Canada’s fifth-largest lender. “It’s good news for equities and bad news for the bond market.”
Ten-year yields increased one basis point to 1.67 percent as of 9:47 a.m. in Tokyo, according to Bloomberg Bond Trader data. The 1.625 percent security due in November 2022 fell 3/32, or 94 cents per $1,000 face amount, to 99 18/32. The yield slid three basis points, or 0.03 percentage point, yesterday, the biggest decline in two weeks. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index (MXAP) of stocks advanced 0.5 percent today, headed for its fifth straight gain. Euro-area finance ministers reached agreements on Greece’s debt burden and its funding gap, a European Union official said in Brussels today.

Treasury Bears Capitulate as Fed Buying Meets Cliff Worry (Bloomberg)
Until last month, Donald Ellenberger, who manages $10 billion for Federated Investors Inc., shunned Treasuries as the U.S. economy improved and 10- year notes yielded less than inflation. Now, he can’t afford to stay out. Ellenberger has plenty of company. Bond bears from Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. to T. Rowe Price Group Inc. are buying Treasuries though the 1.69 percent yield on 10-year notes is less than the rate of inflation and returns on the $10.9 trillion of marketable debt are the least in three years. The combination of Federal Reserve efforts to stimulate the economy by buying bonds and the potential slowdown should politicians fail to avert the so-called fiscal cliff of tax increases and spending cuts has made Treasuries the debt that money managers have to own. Even investors who shun Treasuries don’t see 10-year note yields rising much above 2 percent.
“Treasuries offer little real value, but in the short term, it is just hard to be a bear,” Ellenberger, who is based in Pittsburgh, said in a Nov. 19 telephone interview. The company has moved from significantly “underweight” Treasuries compared with benchmark performance measures to adding the securities. “The fiscal cliff is a big deal, and the Fed is determined to keep rates low.”

Republicans and Democrats Differ on Taxes as ‘Cliff’ Looms (Bloomberg)
U.S. Republican lawmakers advocated raising federal tax revenue by limiting deductions rather than by raising rates to avert the so-called fiscal cliff, as Democrats pushed for higher rates on upper-income earners. “I would be very much opposed to raising tax rates, but I do believe that we can close a lot of loopholes,” including limits on how much people can deduct for charitable giving and home mortgage interest payments, Senator John McCain, an Arizona Republican, said yesterday on “Fox News Sunday.” Senator Richard Durbin of Illinois, the second-ranking Democrat in the chamber, said any deal to reduce budget deficits should allow the top tax rate on ordinary income to rise to 39.6 percent from 35 percent. “Let the rates go up to 39 percent. Let us also take a look at the deductions. Let’s make sure that revenue is an integral part of deficit reduction,” Durbin said yesterday on ABC’s “This Week.”
Democratic President Barack Obama and congressional leaders are trying to find a compromise in the next few weeks to avoid the fiscal cliff, which would trigger $607 billion in tax increases and spending cuts beginning in January. The Congressional Budget Office has said failure to avoid the fiscal cliff could lead to a recession and a jobless rate of about 9 percent, compared with the October rate of 7.9 percent. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said Nov. 20 that the fiscal cliff would pose a “substantial threat” to the economic recovery.

Retailers Keep Deals Flowing on 13% Holiday-Sales Jump (Bloomberg)
U.S. retailers are extending deals into Cyber Monday and beyond to try to sustain a 13 percent gain in Thanksgiving weekend sales. Spending in stores and online rose to $59.1 billion in the four days starting Nov. 22, the National Retail Federation said in a statement yesterday. A year ago, sales advanced 16 percent over the holiday weekend. Retailers have turned Black Friday into a week’s worth of deals, with earlier openings and online offers. Thanksgiving Day, once reserved for family gatherings, saw the number of shoppers rise to more than 35 million from 29 million last year, the NRF said. Even today’s so-called Cyber Monday is losing its distinction, with Best Buy Co. yesterday cutting online prices of televisions and J.C. Penney Co. (JCP) discounting cookware.
“What was Cyber Monday is now Cyber Weekend,” Poonam Goyal, a Bloomberg Industries analyst, said in a telephone interview yesterday. “It is no longer a one-day event. Year over year, Black Friday sales were strong and margins should have also been strong.” About 28 percent of the weekend shoppers were in stores on Thursday night, up from about 24 percent last year, the NRF said. Chicago-based researcher ShopperTrak observed a 1.8 percent decline in sales on Black Friday itself, after chains including Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT), the world’s largest retailer, offered early-bird specials. Customers spent $423 on average this weekend, up 6.3 percent from last year, the Washington-based NRF said. The 13 percent jump in total spending suggests that some sales were pulled ahead from December and that retailers will have to keep up the promotions to avoid a lull.

China Search for PBOC Chief Spurs Focus on Finance Regulators (Bloomberg)
China’s likely search for a successor to Zhou Xiaochuan as central bank chief is spurring focus on the nation’s banking and securities regulators as the incoming Communist leadership overhauls top government positions. Guo Shuqing, 56, and Shang Fulin, 61, have both run one of China’s four largest banks, worked as a deputy central bank governor and currently head regulatory agencies -- matching the profile of Zhou, 64, when he took the helm of the People’s Bank of China in 2002. As securities regulator, Guo has accelerated the pace that predecessor Shang set for opening up to foreign investors, suggesting he could favor faster deregulation of financial markets. While Guo’s public appearances have included a U.S. television talk show, Shang has a lower profile and was once described as cautious by former central bank Governor Dai Xianglong.
“Shang Fulin is a very conservative, very cautious individual who in eight years didn’t fundamentally change the stock market at all,” said Fraser Howie, co-author of “Red Capitalism: The Fragile Financial Foundation of China’s Extraordinary Rise.” “If you are looking for reform in the sense of fundamentally trying to change what the model is, then Guo Shuqing is your guy.” The Communist Party is partway through a once-a-decade leadership change, with Xi Jinping replacing Hu Jintao as party head this month and Li Keqiang forecast to succeed Premier Wen Jiabao in March. Zhou wasn’t on the new central committee named Nov. 14, suggesting he will step aside after a decade that included ending the yuan’s peg to the dollar in 2005.

ECB Said to Consider Helping Greece With Holdings (Bloomberg)
The European Central Bank is considering new ways to help reduce Greece’s funding gap by using the Greek debt in its investment portfolios, three euro- area officials said. The national central banks of the euro area hold Greek bonds in their investment portfolios and agreed in February to give any profits back to Greece. The issue has been reopened and the ECB is now looking at options including rolling over the holdings or allowing the Greek government to buy them back, the officials said yesterday on condition of anonymity. There are between 10 billion euros ($13 billion) and 15 billion euros in the portfolios, one official said. The amount saved by Greece would be considerably less than the overall value of the holdings, the person said. An ECB spokesman declined to comment on whether such plans are under discussion.
Euro-area finance ministers were meeting in Brussels last night in the third attempt this month to plug Greece’s funding shortfall. The impasse is holding up the next bailout payment to Athens and, as they have done so often during the sovereign debt crisis, governments are once again turning to the ECB for help. ECB President Mario Draghi attended last night’s meeting. Greece may need as much as 32.6 billion euros in extra financing through 2016, according to an assessment by the country’s creditors obtained by Bloomberg News. Plans to give Greece two more years to meet deficit-reduction targets would open up financing gaps of 15 billion euros through 2014 and 17.6 billion euros in 2015-2016, the assessment shows.

Greek Aid Deal Reached by EU, Debt Relief Ruled Out (Bloomberg)
European finance ministers cut Greece’s interest rates and gave it more time to pay back rescue loans while dismissing for now calls for debt relief that may be needed to keep the country afloat over the longer term. In the fourth Greek crisis meeting in two weeks, the ministers persuaded a skeptical International Monetary Fund that Europe has a formula for putting the country that triggered the debt crisis onto a path back out of it. Greece was also cleared to receive a 34.4 billion-euro loan installment in December. “All initiatives decided upon today will bring Greece’s public debt clearly back on a sustainable path,” Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker told reporters after chairing a 13-hour meeting that ended early today. “This has been a very difficult deal.”
After three years of false starts, the creditor governments led by Germany proclaimed the latest fix for Greece just as they grapple with swelling financing needs in Cyprus and a potential aid request by Spain, the fourth-largest euro economy. “We didn’t discuss a debt cut,” said German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble. The agreement reached “on the one hand, tries with a debt buyback to significantly cut the overall debt burden by 2020. On the other hand we closed the financing gap and the measures for the financing of the debt buyback through temporary measures.”

Euro Advance’s After Funding Deal Agreed for Greece (Bloomberg)
The euro advanced after a European Union official said the currency bloc’s finance ministers reached agreement on Greece’s debt burden and its funding gap. The 17-nation currency earlier touched a three-week high amid speculation the International Monetary Fund and the currency bloc’s finance chiefs would agree to cut Greek debt. The yen maintained a three-day gain versus the dollar as expectations eased that Japanese opposition leader Shinzo Abe will push the central bank for more aggressive monetary easing. “We saw the euro pop on the news that a deal has been reached,” said Sue Trinh, a Hong Kong-based senior currency strategist at Royal Bank of Canada. “The actual announcement of the deal has been somewhat of a relief.”
The euro climbed to $1.3009, the strongest since Oct. 31, before trading at $1.2993 as of 9:56 a.m. in Tokyo, 0.2 percent higher than the close in New York yesterday. It was little changed at 106.50 yen. The yen gained 0.1 percent to 81.97 per dollar after climbing 0.5 percent in the previous three days. Finance ministers from the 17-nation euro bloc started their meeting at 12:30 p.m. in Brussels yesterday, less than a week after an all-night gathering failed to yield agreement and days after a EU summit broke up without a proposed seven-year budget. Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker said after the agreement was announced that the Greek government is putting an impressive toolbox in place. Under the deal, Greek bilateral loan rates are to be lowered by 100 basis points, he said.

20121127 1023 Global Commodities Related News.

Speculators Raise Wagers First Time in Seven Weeks: Commodities (Bloomberg)
Speculators raised bullish commodity wagers for the first time since early October as signs of improving economic growth in the U.S. and China pushed prices higher for three straight weeks. Hedge funds and other money managers increased combined net-long positions across 18 U.S. futures and options by 9.6 percent to 846,321 contracts in the week ended Nov. 20, Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. That was the biggest gain since mid-August. Corn holdings rose the most since July, and those on silver reached a five-week high. The Standard & Poor’s GSCI Spot Index of 24 raw materials has rebounded 3.9 percent since reaching a three-month low on Nov. 5. Manufacturing in China, the world’s biggest consumer of everything from copper to coal to cotton, is on pace to expand in November for the first time in more than a year, figures showed Nov. 22.
In the U.S., more Americans this month said the world’s largest economy will improve than at any time in the past decade, and new-home construction climbed to a  four-year high in October, separate reports showed last week. “There are a lot of reasons to believe that we are starting to turn the corner,” said James Paulsen, the Minneapolis-based chief investment strategist at Wells Capital Management, which oversees about $325 billion. “Growth in the U.S. and China gives me confidence to remain invested in commodities.”

Wheat Market Recap Report (CME)
December Wheat finished up 1 1/4 at 849, 5 1/4 off the high and 4 1/2 up from the low. March Wheat closed up 2 1/4 at 863 3/4. This was 5 1/2 up from the low and 5 1/4 off the high. December Chicago wheat is trading slightly higher to finish the day with most of the supportive trade centered on new crop contracts. The leader throughout the session was KC wheat as the market continues to be concerned with the poor weather and soil conditions in the western plains. New export tenders are beginning to hit the market after a slow lineup last week. Jordan is in for 100,000 tonnes, Iraq for 50,000, Syria is still in the market for 100,000 tonnes of soft wheat, and Algeria issued a tender for 50,000 tonnes. The sluggish pace of exports continues to be a drag on wheat futures in the short term but many are optimistic that the pace will increase in 2013 as supply tightens in Argentina and Australia. Chicago wheat saw selling pressure midday after export inspections were reported at 7.8 million bushels vs. 11.1 last week. Shipments needed each week to reach the current USDA export estimate total 24 million bushels. The cumulative shipment pace is now 41% of the current USDA export estimate for this crop year vs. the 5 year average of 50%. Outside markets were negative throughout the day with the US Dollar trading higher and stocks lower which kept gains limited in the Chicago wheat market. December Oats closed down 1/4 at 368 3/4. This was 7 3/4 up from the low and 1 1/4 off the high.

Corn Market Recap for 11/26/2012 (CME)
December Corn finished up 1 3/4 at 747 1/4, 5 3/4 off the high and 5 1/2 up from the low. March Corn closed up 1 1/2 at 751 1/4. This was 5 1/4 up from the low and 5 3/4 off the high.
March corn traded modestly higher on the day but was able to post a new high for the move early in the session before pulling back amid weaker outside markets. The US Dollar was stronger to start the week and US equity markets traded sharply lower which added a negative tilt to the market sentiment. Some traders suggest that wet weather conditions in Argentina have likely cut corn production for this year which added support to corn, but sluggish export data released midday helped to offset the positive tilt. Corn export inspections for the week ending November 22nd were reported at 15.9 million bushels vs. 14.4 last week. Corn shipments needed each week to reach the current USDA export forecast is 23.5 million bushels. The cumulative shipment pace is 17% of the USDA export estimate vs. the 5 year average of 22%. Many traders believe the US export pace is due for an uptick very soon as South American prices firm. This could be supportive to the long term price outlook for the corn market but very little evidence of this has developed so far.
January Rice finished down 0.115 at 14.92, 0.12 off the high and equal to the low.

U.S. Winter-Wheat Crop Worsening as Dry Weather Curtails Growth (Bloomberg)
Crop conditions for winter wheat in the U.S. declined for the fourth straight week and were the worst since 1985, the government said, as dry, cold weather slowed seed germination and early plant growth. An estimated 33 percent of the crop was rated good or excellent as of yesterday, down from 34 percent last week and 52 percent a year earlier, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said today in a report. About 26 percent was in poor or very poor condition, compared with 13 percent a year earlier. The worst U.S. drought since 1956 helped send wheat futures up 32 percent this year. About 56 percent of the six High Plains states from Kansas to North Dakota was in extreme or exceptional drought as of Nov. 20, up from 6.3 percent a year earlier, government data show. Plant emergence was 88 complete in the 18 top-producing states, compared with 91 percent a year earlier, the USDA said.
“The crop is already dying in some fields from the lack of rain,” Alan Brugler, the president of Brugler Marketing & Management Inc. in Omaha, Nebraska, said in a telephone interview before the report. “Crops survived the dry weather last year because there were surplus soil-moisture reserves. The crop is more susceptible to wind and cold damage this year because of the poor conditions.” Dry, warm weather is expected over the next 10 days, which will slow root development before plants go dormant for the winter, according to T-Storm Weather LLC in Chicago. About 46 percent of the wheat crop from Texas to Montana received less than half the average rain during the last 90 days, the forecaster said.

Recap Energy Market Report (CME)
January crude oil prices experienced a choppy trading session that was mostly lower. The crude oil market was under pressure early this morning as concerns over the US fiscal cliff weighed on sentiment, as well as uncertainty surrounding a meeting between EU officials and the IMF on releasing more aid to Greece. Meanwhile, a measure of support for the crude oil market seemed to come from modest geopolitical tensions from recent protests in Egypt and ahead of a judicial hearing on their President's new powers.

Thailand to Surpass India as Top Rice Shipper on Stockpile Sales (Bloomberg)
Thailand is set to overtake India as the world’s largest rice exporter as the nation accelerates sales from state stockpiles, adding to record global supplies, according to the International Rice Research Institute. Shipments from India may drop to as low as 7 million metric tons in the year that began Oct. 1, said Samarendu Mohanty, a senior economist. Exports including the aromatic basmati variety more than tripled to 10.4 million tons the previous year, said the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Thailand plans to ship 8.5 million tons in 2013 from 7.3 million tons this year, according to the Department of Foreign Trade.
Rising Thai supplies may increase competition among Asian producers and pressure prices that have risen 1.2 percent in Chicago this year. A decline in the staple for half the world may further lower food costs that the United Nations’ Food & Agriculture Organization estimates dropped 0.9 percent in October from a six-month high. Global opening stockpiles for 2012-2013 will climb to the highest in a decade, the USDA says. “Thailand has little choice but to release stocks and that will probably lead to lower prices,” Concepcion Calpe, a senior economist at the FAO, said from Rome. “There will be growing competition from less important rice-supplying countries, such as Brazil, Russia, Egypt and Australia in the export markets, which will tend to reduce prices in 2013.”

Natural Gas Drops Most in Five Weeks on December Forecast (Bloomberg)
Natural gas tumbled the most in five weeks as revised forecasts showing an unusually warm start to December signaled reduced demand for heating fuels. Futures fell 4.4 percent, closing with the biggest one-day decline since Oct. 22, as companies including Commodity Weather Group LLC predicted above-normal temperatures for the lower 48 states in the next six to 10 days. Gas rose to a 13-month high last week on forecasts showing colder weather in early December and a government report of a bigger-than-expected supply drop. “A little bit of cold that we had is coming to a quick end,” said Dominick Chirichella, senior partner at the Energy Management Institute in New York. “If the weather does turn out to be warmer than normal, we could see” more gas additions to stockpiles.
Natural gas for December delivery fell 17.1 cents to $3.73 per million British thermal units on the New York Mercantile Exchange after dropping as much as 5.1 percent to $3.704. If prices had closed there it would have been the biggest decline since Aug. 10. The futures are up 5.3 percent from a year ago. Gas climbed to $3.933 during the previous trading session, the highest intraday price since Nov. 1, 2011. Electronic trading volume was 271,004 contracts today at 2:42 p.m. exceeding the 154,615 contracts that traded on Nov. 23. “The perception is that the market was a bit overbought last week” amid low volume because of the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday, said Bob Yawger, director of the futures division at Mizuho Securities USA Inc. in New York. “It looks like the drive to $4 has definitely stalled for the time being.”

Oil Rises From One-Week Low as Euro Ministers Agree on Greek Aid (Bloomberg)
Oil rose from the lowest level in almost a week after European finance ministers reached an agreement on aid for Greece, easing concern that Europe’s debt crisis will derail the economic recovery and curb fuel demand. Futures advanced as much as 0.4 percent in New York after slipping 0.6 percent yesterday. Ministers agreed to help Greece manage its debt burden in talks in Brussels that lasted more than 12 hours, a European Union official said. It was the fourth round of discussions by ministers on the Greek crisis in two weeks. U.S. crude inventories probably rose 500,000 barrels last week, according to a Bloomberg News survey of analysts before an Energy Department report tomorrow. Crude for January delivery gained as much as 35 cents to $88.09 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange and was at $88.08 at 12:16 p.m. Sydney time. The contract decreased 54 cents yesterday to $87.74, the lowest since Nov. 21. Prices are down 11 percent this year.
Brent for January settlement advanced 25 cents to $111.17 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The European benchmark contract was at a premium of $23.09 to West Texas Intermediate, compared with $23.18 yesterday. The European Union accounted for 16 percent of the world’s oil consumption last year, according to BP Plc’s Statistical Review of World Energy. The U.S. and China were the world’s biggest crude users, accounting for a combined 32 percent. International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde told reporters after the Brussels meeting that her aim to get Greece’s debt on a “sustainable path” was achieved in today’s discussions. IMF criticism of Europe’s failure to do so had held up an accord.
U.S. gasoline supplies probably rose 1 million barrels, according to the median of five analyst estimates in the Bloomberg survey before the Energy Department report. Distillate stockpiles, a category that includes heating oil and diesel, rose 500,000 barrels, the survey shows. The American Petroleum Institute will release separate inventory data today.

Silver Market Recap Report (CME)
The silver market showed some weakness this morning but in retrospect, December silver prices seemed to have the capacity to hold up near the recent highs. In other words, silver maintained a fairly narrow trading range today and prices seemed to derive added support from the even number $34.00 level. In the end, noted weakness in equities and the rest of the metals complex probably weighed on silver prices and perhaps some would be longs were concerned about the potential for another jump in the weekly spec long positioning in silver from the delayed COT reports.

Gold Market Recap Report (CME)
With open interest on the rise in gold over the last several weeks and gold prices generally maintaining a positive track on the charts, the bull camp might feels like recent gains have confirmed a growing bullish interest in the market. However, gold also appears to be negatively impacted by physical commodity market fundamentals and by evidence of slowing in the US economy. In fact, some players think the lack of an EU deal on Greece and news that US leaders wouldn't meet this week to discuss the fiscal cliff were serving to undermine gold prices today. It would also seem like weakness in US equities were another element that served to provide a cap on gold prices today.

20121127 1022 Soy Oil & Palm Oil Related News.

Soybean Complex Market Recap (CME)
January Soybeans finished up 6 at 1424 3/4, 10 3/4 off the high and 8 up from the low. March Soybeans closed up 9 1/4 at 1412 1/4. This was 13 1/4 up from the low and 6 3/4 off the high.
December Soymeal closed up 3.1 at 431.7. This was 3.8 up from the low and 2.0 off the high. December Soybean Oil finished up 0.23 at 49.27, 0.28 off the high and 0.41 up from the low.
January soybeans traded slightly higher into the closing bell but well off the session highs that were put in this morning. Soybean meal ended the day in positive territory as did soy oil. Oil traded lower late in the session but was able recover near the end of the day. The USDA reported this morning that US exporters sold another 20,000 tonnes of soy oil to an unknown destination for the current marketing year. Soybean oil sales have surged in recent weeks which has triggered a wave of short covering to help support the entire soybean complex. Strong demand fundamentals helped to support the market early on but negative outside markets and worse than expected export data limited gains midday. Inspections for the week ending November 22nd were reported at 45.5 million bushels vs. 62 million last week which was below market expectations. Only 19.7 million bushels are needed to ship each week to reach this crop years USDA export estimate. The cumulative shipment pace is now 41% of the USDA estimate vs. the 5 year average of 30%. Traders are also monitoring the South American weather outlook. Heavy rainfall in areas of Argentina could mean an increase in soybean acreage due to delays in corn seeding. Central and Northern Brazil continue to see timely rainfall but southern Brazil is beginning to trend drier.

EDIBLE OIL: Malaysian palm oil futures edged up  on expectations stocks might grow at a slower pace, with the market also focusing on Greek financial aid deal set to be signed later in the day that may cheer markets. (Reuters)

PREVIEW-Environmental concerns add to palm oil's demand woes
Mon Nov 26, 2012 4:26am EST
* Demand and price outlook for 2013 to be gauged at Bali conference
* Import, export tax changes in China and Malaysia high on agenda

* Green lobbying and forest moratorium up for debate

By Michael Taylor
JAKARTA, Nov 26 (Reuters) - The world's biggest palm oil producers, under pressure to come up with ways to perk up demand from top consumers China and Europe during a meeting this week, may also have to defend the edible oil from renewed attacks over its green credentials.
Malaysia and Indonesia account for about 90 percent of the world's annual palm oil production of about 45 million tonnes.
Europe's financial woes, and China's slowing economy, have reduced their appetite for palm oil, which has left top producer Malaysia with record high inventories of 2.51 million tonnes as of October, and created a major headache for traders.
The rising stocks have shaved a quarter off the value of palm oil futures this year, and prices - currently at around 2,400 Malaysian ringgit ($780) a tonne - are likely to fall further unless consumption picks up significantly.
Overshadowing a possible revival in demand is renewed concern in the West about the environmental credentials of the industry behind the world's most popular edible oil, highlighted by a recent visit by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to Indonesia and a French proposal to steeply increase duties on foods using palm oil, which has been dubbed the "Nutella tax".
"The focus will be on demand and whether weak demand will persist," Ben Santoso, a plantations analyst with DBS Bank in Singapore said, speaking ahead of the 8th Annual Indonesian Palm Oil Conference due to start on the island of Bali on Wednesday.
Palm oil is used mainly as an ingredient in food such as biscuits and ice cream, or as a biofuel.
"Demand is the main issue and whether it is strong enough to absorb good production," said a Singapore-based trader. "All issues voice down to demand."

High on the delegates' agenda will be the impact of a proposed cut in crude palm oil export taxes by Malaysia, which comes almost a year after Indonesia took the rug out from under its rival by reducing export taxes on refined palm oil to boost its processing industry.
The Malaysian government, in a bid to entice customers, said it planned to cut export taxes for the crude grade to 8-10 percent from 23 percent early next year. The proposal has already helped stem losses in crude palm oil prices.
Conference delegates will be seeking a clearer picture of how the Malaysian tax cut will impact trade flows, especially as China, the world's second largest importer of the cooking oil, is set to introduce stricter quality measures next year which could give greater importance to crude grades over refined palm oil.
"You have issues like import and export taxes which are going to increase competition in some areas," said Ivy Ng Lee Fang, senior regional analyst at CIMB. "At the same time you have a lower price environment."
"There is also a lot of new regulations in some of the key consuming markets, like China, and a lot of protectionism or anti-palm oil lobbying like the Nutella tax in France."
In the last few years, top producer Indonesia has seen rapid growth in production of palm oil, with output this year expected to be between 23 million and 25 million tonnes, with about 18 million tonnes exported.
This year, palm oil estates sprawl across 8.2 million hectares of Indonesian land, and that is expected to rise about 200,000 hectares a year for the next decade.
But green groups have been critical of expansion in the palm sector, which they blame for deforestation, speeding up climate change, ruining watersheds and destroying wildlife.
To improve its green credentials, Indonesia signed a two-year forest moratorium in May last year, although critics say breaches still occur. A possible renewal next year will be on industry players' radars at the conference.
"The moratorium is a very hot topic," DBS analyst Santoso said. "The issue is so complex that maybe nobody will have the answers."