Wednesday, September 15, 2010

20100915 1828 FCPO EOD Daily Chart Study.

FCPO closed : 2615, changed : -28 points, volume : lower.
Bollinger band reading : side way range bound.
MACD Histrogram : weakening, buyer closing position.
Support : 2600, 2570, 2550 level.
Resistant : 2620, 2650, 2670 level.
Comment :
Official released of August 2010 higher inventory and output level plus a weak export leaded FCPO to decline further in slightly lower volume transaction despite an improved September first half export data and higher soy oil futures price as buyer decided to close off position. Daily chart formed 2nd down bar candle with the reading suggesting a side way range bound market testing lower support level near middle Bollinger band level.
When to buy : buy at support or weakness with quick cut loss and profit target.
When to sell : sell at resistant or strength with quick cut loss and profit target.

20100915 1817 FKLI EOD Daily Chart Study.

FKLI closed : 1476.5, changed : +5 points, volume : low.
Bollinger band reading : upside biased.
MACD Histrogram : continue rising, buyer's heaven.
Support : 1470, 1458, 1445, 1425 level.
Resistant : 1500, 1530, 1550 level.
Comment :
Serious buyer pushed FKLI to opened and traded higher again in lesser volume transacted however profit taking activities kept gain limited once market hit the upper Bollinger band. Daily chart formed a doji bar candle near upper Bollinger band hint for a possible pullback correction with underlying market remained upside biased.
When to buy : buy at support or weakness with quick cut loss and profit target.
When to sell : sell at resistant or strength with quick cut loss and profit target.

20100915 1455 FKLI Mid Day Hourly Chart Study.

FKLI last looked : 1475, changed : +3.5 points, volume : low.
Bollinger band reading : upside biased.
MACD Histrogram : getting lower, buyer taking profit.
Support : 1470, 1458, 1445 level.
Resistant : 1500, 1530, 1550 level.
Comment :
FKLI continue to surged higher and followed by profit taking activities pressed price to closed the first session off the high. Hourly chart shows that market currently having correction profit taking within an upside biased market reading.

20100915 1241 FCPO Mid Day Hourly Chart Study.

FCPO closed : 2647, changed : +4 points, volume : low.
Bollinger band reading : side way range bound.
MACD Histrogram : recovering, both buyer and seller testing market.
Support : 2620, 2600, 2570 level.
Resistant : 2650, 2670, 2700 level.
Comment :
Traded range bound FCPO registered minor up in slow volume transaction for the first session within 19 points range market. Hourly chart wise, market move side way testing support and resistant level within middle and lower Bollinger band level with a side way range bound market reading development.

20100915 1145 Global Economic News.

Australia: Business confidence jumped in August to the highest level in four months . The confidence index rose to 11 points from 2 points in July, according to a National Australia Bank Ltd. (Source: Bloomberg)

India: August inflation eases, rate hike expected
India's annual headline inflation eased in August but remained well above the comfort zone of a central bank that is still expected by many economists to raise interest rates at its policy review. Inflation remains stubbornly high and the Reserve Bank of India has cautioned that capacity constraints in the rapidly-expanding economy will keep up pressure on prices. (StarBiz)

China: Leading economic index rose for a third month in July , adding to evidence the cooling of the nation's expansion has stabilized. The leading economic index climbed 0.5% to 147.6 in July, The Conference Board's report showed. The reading compared with a revised 0.7% gain in June and a 0.9% increase in May, the New York based research group said in a preliminary report on its website. (Source: Bloomberg)

China: May delay rate increase to 2011, economists’ survey shows
China’s accelerating inflation may fail to convince policy makers to raise interest rates this year because food costs, not surging credit, are fueling price gains. The benchmark one-year lending rate will remain at 5.31%, with the deposit rate at 2.25%, according to the median estimates in Bloomberg News surveys of economists after August economic data released 10-11 Sept. The yuan may gain about 1.4% to 6.65 per dollar, the forecasts also show. (Bloomberg)

China: Yuan at new high, Beijing seen under pressure
The yuan hit a fresh post-revaluation high against the dollar, with Beijing seen conceding to let the yuan rise as US lawmakers call for a vote on a bill to get tough with China over its slow exchange rate reform. The People's Bank of China fixed the mid-point to the dollar at its highest level since the yuan's landmark revaluation in July 2005.(StarBiz)

Germany: Investor confidence in September falls to 19 month low as budget cuts across the euro region and slowing global growth clouded the outlook for Europe's largest economy. The ZEW Center for European Economic Research in Mannheim said its index of investor and analyst expectations, which aims to predict developments six months ahead, dropped to minus 4.3 from 14 in August. That's the fifth monthly decline and the lowest since February 2009. (Source: Bloomberg)

Japan: Production fell in July, revised data show
Japan’s industrial production fell in July, the government said in revised figures, reversing an initial estimate that showed output rose. Factory output fell 0.2% from a month earlier, compared with the previously reported 0.3% gain, the Trade Ministry said in Tokyo. Production fell 1.1% in June. (Bloomberg)

EU: Industrial production unexpectedly stagnated
European industrial production unexpectedly stagnated in July, adding to signs that the euro region’s export-led recovery is losing momentum. Economists had projected a gain of 0.1% in July, the median of 35 forecasts in a Bloomberg survey showed. In June, output in the economy of the 16 euro nations fell 0.2%, the European Union’s statistics office in Luxembourg said. (Bloomberg)

UK: Inflation unexpectedly exceeds 3% on air fares
UK inflation unexpectedly exceeded the government’s 3% limit for a sixth month in August as higher costs of items from air fares to food stoked price pressures in the economy. Consumer prices rose 3.1% from a year earlier, the same pace as in July, the Office for National Statistics said in London. On the month, prices increased by 0.5%. (Bloomberg)

UK: Consumer confidence increases in August, Nationwide Says
UK consumer confidence rose in August for the first time in four months as Britons’ optimism about the future economic situation increased, Nationwide Building Society said. The index of sentiment rose 5 points from the previous month to 61, the London-based customer-owned lender said. A gauge of expectations rose 7 points to 84. (Bloomberg)

US: Retail sales climbed in August for a second month Sales at US retailers climbed in August for a second consecutive month, allaying concern the economy will stumble in the second half of the year. Purchases increased 0.4% following a 0.3% gain in July, Commerce Department figures showed in Washington. Sales excluding automobiles advanced 0.6%, twice as much as the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. (Bloomberg)

20100915 Malaysia Corporate News.

ACE buying Jerneh unit for RM654m
US-based ACE INA International Holdings Ltd, a member of the ACE group of companies, is buying Jerneh Asia's general insurance outfit for RM654m cash. The Finance Ministry has given the nod to Jerneh Asia and Paramount Corp to dispose of their respective 80% and 20% stakes in Jerneh Insurance (M) to ACE INA. Both the sellers made separate filings on the sale to Bursa Malaysia yesterday. ACE and the sellers are expected to execute a definitive agreement shortly. ACE already has a presence in Malaysia through its 51% stake in local general insurer ACE Synergy Insurance. Advance Synergy Capital holds the remaining 49%. (BT)

Genting Malaysia gets final nod for NY racino
Genting Malaysia (GenM)’s wholly owned subsidiary, Genting New York LLC (Genting NY), has cleared the final hurdle to develop and operate a video lottery facility at the Aqueduct Racetrack in New York following the green light given by the New York State Controller. In a filing to Bursa Malaysia yesterday, GenM said the Office of the New York State Controller had on Monday announced its approval for Genting NY to be selected as the developer and operator of the video lottery facility. The company said that upon the receiving the memorandum of understanding from the state of New York, Genting NY would pay the upfront licensing fee of USD380m to the state within 10 business days. (Financial Daily)

Gamuda to replace Tanjong on FBM KLCI
Gamuda will replace Tanjong plc on the FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (FBM KLCI) from 20 Sept. Bursa Malaysia said in a statement that following the unconditional takeover announcement on Tanjong plc by Tanjong Capital SB, the former (Tanjong plc) would be deleted from the index and that Gamuda would be added to the index with shares in issue totalling 2.013bn and an investability weighting of 100%. The stock exchange said with the inclusion of Gamuda in the FBM KLCI, the company would be deleted from the FTSE Bursa Malaysia Mid 70 Index and replaced by TA Global. (StarBiz)

Hock Seng Lee bags Sarawak job
Hock Seng Lee (HSL) has won a RM83.30m job from Sarawak Timber Industry Development Corp to build road, drainage, electrical & telecommunication infrastructure at the Tanjung Manis palm oil industrial cluster in Sarawak. In its filing to the stock exchange, HSL said the work is scheduled to complete by October 2012. (BT)

Guan Eng confirm Boustead’s land reclamation deal
Penang’s Chief Minister Lim Guan Eng confirmed reports by The Edge Financial Daily that Boustead Holdings would be allowed to reclaim land as part of a compensation for having to scale down its Royal Bintang Hotel project from 12 floors to five. The reclamation is part of the compensation for Boustead due to the hotel project having to scale down in accordance to Unesco requirements for naming George Town as A World Heritage Site. It is learnt that Boustead is planning to develop the reclaimed area into an integrated township with upscale housing and commercial components. (Financial Daily)

Mida evaluating 5 foreign carmakers for ops in Malaysia
The Malaysian Investment Development Authority (Mida) is evaluating five foreign carmakers which have shown interest in setting up assembly and manufacturing facilities here. Mida director-general Datuk Jalilah Baba declined to name the companies, but said the agency has received a lot of interest from carmakers in India, China, Japan and South Korea. She added that the applications were to assemble and manufacture cars below and above 1,800cc. "Above 1,800cc is no problem, but below 1,800cc is a policy matter," she said. With the recent review of the National Automotive Policy, foreign carmakers can now wholly own facilities that produce luxury vehicles with an engine capacity of more than 1,800cc, and costs more than RM150,000 per unit. Mida is expected to make a decision on the entry of the carmakers, in the next few months. (BT)

Media Prima owns 97.86% of NSTP
Media Prima, the country's leading media group, said it now owns 97.86% of The New Straits Times Press (Malaysia) (NSTP). The takeover offer finally closed at 5pm yesterday after numerous time extensions. (BT)
Khazanah: To collaborate with Apollo Hospitals. India's Apollo Hospitals Enterprise Ltd is said to be in talks with Khazanah Nasional Bhd for possible collaborations in "healthcare delivery and medical education in India and the rest of Asia", according to wires reports yesterday. Khazanah already owns a 12.2% stake in Apollo, which it acquired in August 2005. Apollo is India's largest private hospital group. Khazanah also owns the International Medical University which is based in Bukit Jalil. (Source: The Star)

Manufacturing: RM16.6b manufacturing investments in Jan-July. MALAYSIA saw RM16.6b worth of approved direct investments in the manufacturing sector in the first 7 months of the year. Out of the amount, RM9.6b was foreign direct investment (FDI) and RM7b was domestic direct investment (DDI). Last year, Malaysia saw RM32.6b worth of investments, out of which RM22.1b was FDI and RM10.5b DDI. (Source: The Star)

MAS: To fly from Sabah to Perth, offers online booking for KL-Fukuoka, Nagoya. Malaysia Airlines (MAS) will introduce three weekly non-stop flights from Perth to Kota Kinabalu from January 15 next year, complementing the 10 non-stop flights from Perth to Kuala Lumpur. Separately, MAS now offers easier online booking for passengers travelling from KL to or from Fukuoka and Nagoya in Japan. (Source: Business Times, The Star)

Plus: RAM reaffirms PLUS SPV's AA1 rating. RAM Rating Services Bhd has reaffirmed the AA1rating of PLUS SPV Bhd's issuance of up to a nominal value of RM2.8b under its RM4b sukuk musyarakah programme (2008/2026) with a stable outlook. RAM said given the strong credit link between PLUS SPV and PEB, the special vehicle's rating reflected PEB's credit risk. It said PEB possessed healthy debt-servicing ability as its company-level funds from operations debt coverage ratio came up to 0.55x as at end-December 2009. (Source: The Star)

SunCity: RAM upgrades SunCity's Murabahah commercial papers. RAM Ratings has upgraded Sunway City Bhd's (SunCity) RM500m short-term Murabahah commercial papers/medium-term notes programme from P2 to P1 and reaffirmed the long-term rating at A2, with a stable outlook. The upgrade was to reflect the significant improvement in SunCity's liquidity profile, pursuant to the successful listing of the Sunway Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) on July 8, the ratings firm said in a statement. (Source: The Star)

20100915 1126 Global Market News.

Gold steady after record high; more upside seen
SINGAPORE, Sept 15 (Reuters) - Spot gold was steady after surging to a record in the previous session, and more upside is likely as investors remain nervous about the global economic recovery.
"Reaching $1,300 is just a matter of time. The most important factors are zero interest rates and that the world economy outside Asia still seems unstable," said a Hong Kong-based dealer. "These are all positive signs for gold."

Yen drops, Nikkei up on Japan FX intervention
SINGAPORE, Sept 15 (Reuters) - Japan intervened in foreign exchange markets for the first time in six years to stem economic damage from the surging yen, pushing its currency sharply lower and lifting Tokyo stocks by almost 3 percent.
"Japan's authorities have declared war in sending a signal that they will not allow the dollar/yen to fall to 80 easily," said Lee Jin-woo, head of the research centre at NH Investment & Futures in Seoul.
Gold hits record as dollar dives; oil down
NEW YORK, Sept 14 (Reuters) - Gold hit record highs on Tuesday on the back of a sharply weak dollar and some agricultural markets rallied too, sending a broad commodities index to a six-week high.
The Reuters/Jefferies CRB index, a global  commodities benchmark that tracks 19 mostly U.S. traded futures markets, rose 1 percent to touch its highest levels since Aug. 5. Reuters charts showed the index was poised for eight-month highs if the run-up continues.

GLOBAL MARKETS: USD pummeled, gold hits record high, stocks flat
NEW YORK, Sept 14 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar fell broadly on Tuesday, breaking through milestone lows against the yen, euro and Swiss franc on a combination of political and technical factors while global stocks ended flat, taking little solace in upbeat U.S. retail sales data.
"It seems people are vacating dollar positions today and that money is shifting into other safe-haven assets for the time being -- the yen, the Swiss franc, gold and U.S. Treasuries," said Greg Salvaggio, vice president of trading at Tempus Consulting in Washington.

US crude inventories seen down on imports, Enbridge
NEW YORK, Sept 14 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil inventories likely fell last week due to lower imports following the Enbridge pipeline outage and a drop in demand for refiners heading into maintenance, an expanded Reuters poll ahead of weekly inventory reports showed on Tuesday.
On average, crude stockpiles fell 2.2 million barrels last week, the poll of 15 analysts showed, with one analyst estimating that imports may have declined by about 500,000 barrels per day. If so, it would be the second week in a row that crude stocks have fallen.

Yen rises after vote; stocks rally struggles
HONG KONG, Sept 14 (Reuters) - Asian stocks edged up while the yen jumped to a 15-year high  after an election in Japan kept the status quo, leaving unclear whether a rally that lifted global equities to a four-month high can stay alive.
"Although better data in the U.S. and China and the agreement in Basel on new regulations have boosted risk appetite, the moves are already beginning to look exhausted," Mitul Kotecha, global head of foreign exchange strategy at Credit Agricole CIB, said in a note.

20100915 1122 Soy Oil & Palm Oil Related News.

ITS : Export up 5.4% to 653,077 tonnes for the period of 1~15 Sep 2010.

SGS : Export up 6.8% to 632,450 tonnes for the period of 1~15 Sep 2010.
SGS : Import up 94.3% to 20,405 tonnes for the period of 1~15 Sep 2010.

MPOB : August 2010 Export down 17.6%
MPOB : August 2010 Stock up 22.59%
MPOB : August 2010 Output up 5.76%

U.S. soy product futures closed mixed. Soymeal followed soybeans and corn higher, with corn leading the upside in the grains and soy complex, traders say. Market participants were selling soyoil and buying soymeal in spread trades, they say. They booked profits on soyoil after prices on Monday reached the highest level in nearly a month, an analyst says. The outlook for soyoil remains strong due to large export sales, he adds. Commodity funds bought an estimated 2,000 soymeal contracts and sold an estimated 2,000 soyoil contracts. CBOT December soyoil ended down 0.10 cent at 41.71 cents per pound, and CBOT December soymeal rose $3 to $296.50 per short ton. (sOURCE: CME)

India August Vegetable Oil Imports Up 64% (Source:CME)
India's vegetable oil imports in August rose 64% from a year earlier to 1.07 million metric tons--the highest shipment in a single month since 1994--because of festive demand, the Solvent Extractors' Association of India said Tuesday. Total vegetable oil imports during the first 10 months of the marketing year that began Nov. 1 rose 5% to 7.45 million tons from 7.07 million tons a year earlier, the trade body said. India is the world's second-largest vegetable oil importer after China and meets more than half its vegetable oil requirements through imports as production lags consumption. The country imported a record 8.66 million tons of vegetable oil in the marketing year to Oct. 31, 2009.
The country bought 1.0 million tons of edible oil in August, sharply up from 612,898 tons a year earlier, the trade body said. B.V. Mehta, executive director of the trade body, said that taking into consideration the current import trend, the total edible oil imports in 2009-10 is likely to be around 9 million tons. He earlier estimated edible imports between 8.5 million to 8.6 million tons. India will likely import 700,000 to 800,000 tons of edible oil in September, he added. The country imports palm oil mainly from Indonesia and Malaysia and soyoil mostly from Brazil and Argentina. Soyoil imports in August more than doubled to 216,966 tons from 96,474 tons last year.

US Soy Exports To SE Asia May Not Sustain Strong Growth (source:CME)
U.S exporters have made strong inroads in Southeast Asia's soymeal and soybeans markets this year, but that growth may not be sustained, a senior industry executive said Tuesday. Drought in Argentina last year and sharply lower soybean crushings by India boosted demand for the U.S. product to unprecedented levels, but large soybean stocks in India and a bumper crop in South America mean U.S. meal exports could fall in the coming year, said John Lindblom, Southeast Asia regional director for the American Soybean Association. "Vietnam wasn't big on the radar before but has now become one of the largest buyers of U.S. soymeal outside North America," Lindblom told Dow Jones Newswires in an interview ahead of the Agricultural Cooperators' Conference here.
U.S soymeal sales to Southeast Asia have more than tripled in the marketing year to September to a record 2.4 million metric tons from 700,000 tons the previous year, accounting for about a third of the region's imports. Vietnam is the primary driver for U.S. soymeal sales, he said. But because Vietnam will have a soybean-crushing plant on line in first half of 2011, a significant part of this demand may shift to beans in the coming year, he said. But he said sales of soymeal to Vietnam in container shipments may remain strong. U.S. soymeal exports to Vietnam have jumped five-fold this marketing year to 500,000 metric tons, after bulk shipments into the country were for the first time in recent months, Lindblom said. For soybeans, U.S exports to Southeast Asia rose to 2.3 million tons in the marketing year to August from 1.8 million tons the year before and may rise to 2.5 million tons this year, Lindblom said.
Tight supplies from South America and a rise in soybean-crushing capacity in Thailand have given a big push to U.S. soybean sales, in the region. He added that coming crushing plant in Vietnam, with annual capacity of 300,000 tons, may drag down demand for soymeal but will support U.S. soybean sales this year. Still, export growth will be tempered by greater supply from Argentina. Indonesia remains a major buyer of U.S. soybeans in the region with purchases last year rising by around 100,000 tons to 1.4 million tons. "Unlike the Philippines and Malaysia, where crushing of imported beans has been substituted with cheaper shipments of soymeal, in Indonesia the demand remains strong," he said. This is because more than half of Indonesia's soybeans are used to make food products such as tempeh and tofu, and are therefore not vulnerable to fortunes of the bean-crushing industry.

Palm oil slips from 1-mth top on supply concerns
KUALA LUMPUR, Sept 14 (Reuters) - Malaysian crude palm oil futures fell  after hitting a new one-month high earlier in the session as traders shifted their focus to prospects of rising supplies in the months to come.
"Supplies are rising all over the place, the U.S. as well as Southeast Asia. What we need to see is strong demand to push the markets higher," said a trader with a foreign commodities brokerage.

India's Aug vegoil imports jump to record-trade
NEW DELHI, Sept 14 (Reuters) - India imported a record 1.06 million tonnes of vegetable oils in August as buyers rebuilt depleted stocks ahead of the festive season, a leading trade body said on Tuesday.
Imports jumped 64 percent, the Solvent Extractors Association of India (SEAI) said, beating trade forecasts of a 36-percent rise.

Forward sales of new Brazil soy crop stop -Celeres
SAO PAULO, Sept 13 (Reuters) - Brazilian soybean producers have suspended selling the 2010/11 soybean crop they are preparing to begin planting later this month, analysts Celeres said on Monday.
Sales of the new crop as of Sept. 10 at 14 percent were unchanged from the week prior but one percentage point ahead of sales this time last year, Celeres said. Producers had sold 16 percent of their crop by this week on average over the last five years.