Tuesday, August 17, 2010

20100817 1845 FCPO EOD Daily Chart Study.

FCPO closed : 2646, changed : -32 points, volume : lower.
Bollinger band reading : correction range bound upside biased.
MACD Histrogram : weakenning, buyer closing position.
Support : 2620, 2600, 2570 level.
Resistant : 2650, 2670, 2700 level.
Comment :
Correction FCPO continue to head south fall lower in reduced volume transaction after market opened and test lower due to weaker soy oil futures price. Daily chart form a down doji bar candle with longer upper shadow indicate buyer failed to defense the market after seller came in to test the market breaking 2 supports levels. Outlook wise, market is having a correction range bound upside biased market reading for the near term testing lower support level.
When to buy : buy at support or weakness with quick cut loss and profit target.
When to sell : sell at resistant or strength with quick cut loss and profit target.

20100817 1828 FKLI EOD Daily Chart Study.

FKLI closed : 1384, changed : +14.5 points, volume : slightly higher.
Bollinger band reading : upside biased.
MACD Histrogram : getting higher, buyer in charge.
Support : 1375, 1360, 1350 level.
Resistant : 1385, 1395, 1405 level.
Comment :
Closed at new year high FKLI rallied to recorded gain after opened little lower and never looks back to go the distance reaching higher ground but volume transaction is just slightly better but relatively low. Daily chart wise, the wide range bar up candle surged and closed way above the upper Bollinger band level with an upside biased reading that potentially having pullback correction soon.
When to buy : buy at support or weakness with larger cut loss and profit target.
When to sell : sell at resistant or strength with quick cut loss and profit target.

20100817 1304 FKLI Mid Day Hourly Chart Study.

FKLI closed : 1377.5, changed : +8 points, volume : low.
Bollinger band reading : upside biased.
MACD Histrogram : weakening, buyer taking profit.
Support : 1375, 1360, 1350 level.
Resistant : 1385, 1395, 1405 level.
Comment :
Hit another year high FKLI rallied higher with lesser volume changed hand after cash market continue to surge higher due to gain in several heavy weight counters especially banking stock as market speculating another round of interest rate hike by Bank Negara. Hourly chart shows that market continue to surge higher without taking any time off with the reading still call for a upside biased market. But having said that the lack of volume transacted raised some doubt about the upward movement momentum sustainability that could triggered a possible pullback downward correction.

20100817 1302 FCPO Mid Day Hourly Chart Study.

FCPO closed : 2663, changed : -15 points, volume : moderate.
Bollinger band reading : correction range bound downside biased.
MACD Histrogram : getting lower, interested seller testing market.
Support : 2650, 2620, 2600 level.
Resistant : 2670, 2700, 2720, 2750 level.
Comment :
Overnight falled on soy oil futures price lead FCPO to opened and tested near lower support level and traded range bound. Hourly chart shows that market opened lower below lower Bollinger and level and are now having correction with the reading suggesting a downside biased market development.

20100817 1103 Local & Global Economic News.

Malaysia: OPR likely to stay at 2.75%
Bank Negara is likely to keep the country’s benchmark overnight policy rate (OPR) at 2.75% when its monetary policy committee meets on 2 Sept as focus shifts to stimulating economic activities rather than price pressures. The central bank has raised the OPR by 75 basis points this year as the pace of the economic recovery accelerated in the first half of the year. (Starbiz)

Malaysia: Sugar, fuel may raise July inflation level
Inflation in Malaysia is expected to rise 1.92% in July due to slightly higher prices of sugar and fuel, but it is likely to stay low this year, economists said. The Statistics Department will release the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the official barometer of inflation, tomorrow. The CPI was up 1.7% in June. (BT)

China: GDP surpasses Japan, capping three-decade rise
China surpassed Japan as the world’s second-largest economy last quarter, capping the nation’s three- decade rise from Communist isolation to emerging superpower. Japan’s nominal gross domestic product for the second quarter totaled USD1.288trn, less than China’s USD1.33 trn, the Japanese Cabinet Office said. Japan remained bigger in the first half of 2010, the government agency said. Japan’s annual GDP is USD5.07trn, while China’s is more than USD4.9trn. (Bloomberg)

India: Inflation rate cooled to six-month low in July
India’s inflation cooled to a six-month low in July, providing Governor Duvvuri Subbarao room to temper the pace of monetary tightening after four interest-rate increases in five months. The benchmark wholesale-price index rose 9.97% from a year earlier, after a 10.55% gain in June, the commerce and industry ministry said in a statement in New Delhi. (Bloomberg)

Euro: Inflation accelerates to fastest since 2008
European inflation accelerated to the fastest pace in 20 months in July on rising energy prices. Consumer prices in the 16 nations that use the euro increased 1.7% from a year earlier after rising 1.4% in June, the European Union statistics office in Luxembourg said, confirming a flash estimate on 30 July. That’s the fastest inflation since November 2008. (Bloomberg)

Philippines: Remittances sent home rose in June at the fastest pace in five months, helping sustain demand for cars, homes and mobile phones. Money sent home from abroad rose to USD1.62b, the central bank said in a statement in Manila. (Source: Bloomberg)  

US: Fed says banks eased standards; demand little changed
Banks in the US eased standards and terms on loans in the second quarter, even as demand for business and consumer credit was little changed at the majority of lenders, according to a Federal Reserve survey. Respondents to the Fed’s quarterly survey of senior loan officers, released in Washington, reported easing standards and most terms on lending to businesses of all sizes. (Bloomberg)

U.S: Homebuilder confidence unexpectedly drops in August , a sign the expiration of a government tax credit will keep depressing home construction. The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo confidence index dropped to 13 this month, the lowest level since March 2009, from 14 in July. Readings lower than 50 mean more respondents said conditions were poor. (Source: Bloomberg)

U.S: Demand for long-term financial assets increased in June as investors abroad bought Treasuries and agency debt and sold stocks. Net buying of long-term equities, notes and bonds totaled USD 44.4b for the month, compared with net purchases of USD 35.3b in May. Including short-term securities such as stock swaps, foreigners sold a net USD 6.7b, the first decrease since January, after buying a net USD 17.1b the previous month. (Source: Bloomberg)

US: Factory demand, builder confidence fall Orders and sales at New York manufacturers decreased in August for the first time in more than a year and US homebuilders turned more pessimistic, indicating the economic slowdown is becoming broad-based. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s so-called Empire State factory index today showed bookings dropped for the first time since June 2009, while sales fell at the fastest pace since March 2009. The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo confidence index unexpectedly declined to a 17-month low. (Bloomberg)

20100817 1102 Malaysia Corporate News.

Tahan: Nod for transfer of insurance business. Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) has approved the scheme to transfer the general insurance business of Tahan Insurance Malaysia Bhd to Overseas Assurance Corp (Malaysia) Bhd. The transfer, a result of an open tender exercise, is due to be completed in the 4th quarter of this year. (Source: Business Times) 

IOI: Still undecided on SMART supply. IOI Corp Bhd stopped buying palm oil from PT SMART three to four weeks ago, and is still undecided on whether to resume purchases after an environmental audit last week gave a mixed score card to the Indonesian planter, traders said yesterday. According to the audit results, the Indonesian palm oil giant had not destroyed primary forest, but had planted on greenhouse gas-rich peatland. (Source: Business Times)

MAS: To receive A380 in April 2012. Malaysia Airlines (MAS) has confirmed that it will take delivery of six A380-800 superjumbos from Airbus SAS. "We have concluded talks with Airbus and the first plane will be delivered in April 2012," MAS MD and CEO Tengku Datuk Azmil Zahruddin told reporters yesterday. (Source: Business Times)

PNB: Primed for KL property buys. Permodalan National Bhd's (PNB) asset management unit is in talks to buy commercial buildings in the heart of Kuala Lumpur as it seeks to provide assets for its property trust. PNB Commercial Sdn Bhd, which has RM1b of assets, plans to buy properties in the Golden Triangle area, improve their performance and sell them to PNB's real estate investment trust (REIT), Amanah Harta Tanah PNB. (Source: Business Times) 

Samart, Axiata in Thai 3G talks
Thai telecoms group Samart Corp Pcl said on yesterday it had entered into talks with Malaysia's Axiata Group on plans to take part in Thailand's upcoming auction of third-generation (3G) mobile licences. Malaysia's No. 2 telecoms firm, Axiata, is the latest foreign company showing interest in the 3G auction scheduled for 22 to 28 Sept, a crucial step in reforming the USD4.7bn (USD1 = RM3.18) sector that could pave for foreign players to grab a bigger slice of the industry and change the way companies pay fees to the government. Leading Asian telecoms firms such as China Mobile Ltd and South Korea's SK Telekom Co Ltd have also expressed interest in the sector if the 3G plan goes ahead. (BT)

Puncak Niaga, India’s P&C in pipeline deal
Puncak Niaga Holdings has formed a 70:30 joint venture with Indian firm P & C Construction (P) Ltd to bid for a pipeline conveyance system project in Mangalore, India. This is part of its business expansion plans in India, Puncak said in a filing to Bursa Malaysia yesterday. The Mangalore Special Economic Zone Ltd will call for international tender of the project. (BT)

Order to restrain MTD Manila toll rate rise
MTD Capital’s wholly-owned MTD Manila Expressways Inc has received a temporary restraining order dated 13 Aug from the Supreme Court in Manila, the Philippines. The order restrains the toll rate increases at South Luzon Expressway effective immediately and will continue until further orders from the court. (BT)

BCorp and Kim Eng confirm talks

In an announcement to Bursa Malaysia yesterday, Berjaya Corp (BCorp) confirmed it is currently in talks with Singapore-based Kim Eng Holdings Ltd for the latter to take up a strategic investment in its stock broking arm, Inter-Pacific Securities SB (Inter-Pac). The diversified group said a detailed announcement would be made once the terms of the proposal have been agreed on. Kim Eng made a similar announcement yesterday evening, adding that a strategic investment in Inter-Pac may or may not proceed. (Financial Daily)

Ta Ann to partner Sarawak government in oil palm ventures
Ta Ann Holdings (TAH) has entered into two joint-venture agreements with the Sarawak state government to develop parcels of land with a gross total of 11,000 hectares for oil palm plantations in Sibu, Sarawak. In an announcement to Bursa Malaysia yesterday, TAH said its wholly owned unit, Ta Ann Plantations SB (TAP) on 13 Aug had entered into the agreements with Pelita Holdings SB (PHSB) to set up JV companies that will partner the native landowners for the oil palm projects. (Financial Daily)

20100817 0959 Global Market News.

Dollar, Japan shares test lows on global woes
SINGAPORE, Aug 17 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar headed toward a 15-year low against the yen and Japanese shares slid as weak U.S. data added to worries about a global slowdown.
"We are worried that some people are saying there is a 25 percent chance of a double-dip recession, and some people are talking about deflation," said Peter McGuire, managing director at CWA Global Markets in Sydney. 

GLOBAL MARKETS: Treasuries, gold rise as search for safety rules
NEW YORK, Aug 16 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury prices rose on Monday and global stocks were little changed as weak growth in Japan added to worries over a tepid global economic recovery and cut investors' appetite for risk.
"The phrase du jour is going to be deflation and it's not only going to last for a day but for some time," said Christian Cooper, senior rates trader at Jefferies & Co in New York. 
Swiss franc, bonds rise on growth concerns

LONDON, Aug 16 (Reuters) - The euro fell sharply versus Swiss franc on Monday and safe-haven U.S. and German government bond yields hit new lows after much weaker than expected growth numbers from Japan added to worries over a faltering global economic recovery.
"What has been driving sentiment for a little while now has been this concern about the loss of momentum in the global recovery," said Mike Lenhoff, chief strategist and head of research at Brewin Dolphin in London.

Japan's growth slows amid worry about yen's climb
TOKYO, Aug 16 (Reuters) - Japan's economic growth slowed to a crawl in the second quarter and analysts see more weakness ahead, adding to policymakers' headaches as they grapple with deflation and a rise in the yen that threatens an export-reliant recovery.
Slowing growth in main export destinations such as the United States and China clouds the outlook, while policymakers are trying hard to talk down the yen  after it surged to a 15-year high against the dollar last week.

S.Korea July exports growth to China, U.S. slows
SEOUL, Aug 16 (Reuters) - Annual growth in South Korean exports to China and the United States slowed in July, customs data showed on Monday, adding to worries that a waning global economic recovery may crimp demand for the country's goods.
But export values to China and the United States hit record monthly highs, prompting hopes any slackening rebound in major markets may have a smaller impact on exports than feared, analysts said.

20100817 0957 Soy Oil & Palm Oil Related News.

Soy product futures ended lower across the board, led by tumbling soyoil futures. Soyoil retraced Friday's strong gains, correcting out-of-line spread relationships with soymeal on higher-than-expected monthly NOPA soyoil stocks and record government ending supply estimates released Thursday, said Doane Advisory Services analyst Bill Nelson. December soyoil settled 1.07 cents, or 2.5%, lower at 42.07 cents per pound. December soymeal ended $1.30 or 0.4% lower at $295.40 per short ton.(Source: CME)

India Minister: No Plan To Impose Import Tax On Crude Edible Oil(Source: CME)
India has no plans to tax crude edible oil imports or raise the import tax on refined edible oil, Farm Minister Sharad Pawar said Monday.
The government is concerned about a recent rise in global edible oil prices, Pawar told reporters. "So, we are not going to take any action that may obstruct imports."
Local traders have been speculating the government may impose an import tax to help local farmers.
"There is no thinking, no substance, no basis (of these rumors)," Pawar said.
India currently doesn't levy any tax on crude edible oil imports, but imposes a 7.5% tax on refined edible oil imports. The price of refined, bleached and deodorized palm olein at Mumbai port has risen 19% to $970 a ton between July 13 and Aug. 13, while that of crude palm oil has increased 16.6% to $910/ton.
The South Asian nation meets more than half of its vegetable oil requirement through imports as production lags consumption. It imports palm oil mainly from Indonesia and Malaysia, and soyoil mostly from Brazil and Argentina.
India's vegetable oil imports in July climbed 34.3% from a year earlier to 800,644 metric tons due to a sharp increase in soyoil imports, according to the Solvent Extractors' Association of India. But vegetable oil imports in the first nine months of the marketing year that started Nov. 1 slipped a tad to 6.38 million tons from 6.42 million tons a year earlier.
According to industry estimates, total edible oil imports in 2009-10 are likely to hit a record high of 8.5 million-8.6 million tons, up from 8.2 million tons last year.
Pawar said the government will likely extend a scheme to export 10,000 metric tons of edible oil in small consumer packages. The scheme is currently valid until the end of September.
Pawar said he is confident about a bumper harvest of summer-sown foodgrains because of higher plantings, though rice sowing in some parts of eastern India has been hit by low rainfall.
The government had earlier estimated a record rice harvest of 100 million tons in the crop year through June 2011.
He also said the government isn't thinking of lifting a ban on wheat and non-basmati rice exports, although bulging wheat stocks have sparked speculation in global markets about Indian exports.
India's wheat stocks at the end of July stood at 32.04 million tons, much higher than the buffer requirement of 17.1 million tons. The government is stocking up foodgrains as it is finalizing a law to provide subsidized foodgrains to the poor.
Opposition members have attacked the government in parliament for storing foodgrain in the open due to a shortage of storage space, causing large quantities to be washed away by rains or rot.
The storage problems are likely to worsen in coming months because the country is heading for a bumper foodgrain crop due to normal monsoon rains in the grain-bowl northern states of Punjab, Haryana and most parts of Uttar Pradesh.   

Palm down on weak demand, weather curbs losses
KUALA LUMPUR, Aug 16 (Reuters) - Malaysian crude palm oil futures closed almost half a percent lower on Monday on weaker overseas demand but weather concerns in key soy-growing regions limited losses.
Traders were concerned that strong demand was tapering off when cargo surveyors reported up to 16.4 percent decline in Malaysian palm oil exports for August 1-15.

Thailand plans to cut soymeal import tax to zero next year
BANGKOK, Aug 16 (Reuters) - Thailand plans to slash its soymeal import tariff to zero next year in a bid to curb rising feed costs and overall inflation, a senior Commerce Ministry official said on Monday.
"This is part of our plan to reduce the costs of living and keep inflation in check," said Vatchari Vimooktayon, a director-general of the Commerce Ministry's Department of Interior Trade.

Heat threatens soy yields in south U.S. Midwest, Delta
SINGAPORE, Aug 16 (Reuters) - Hot and dry weather in southern U.S. Midwest and Delta regions this week is likely to stress the soybean crop in its critical pod-filling stage, raising fears of yields losses, a forecaster said.
The six-to-ten day outlook calls for above normal temperatures and below normal rains in the southeast, said Mike Palmerino, a forecaster with Telvent DTN weather service.

India's July vegoil imports up 34 pct y/y
NEW DELHI, Aug 16 (Reuters) - India's July vegetable oil imports rose 34 percent from a year ago, its first annual rise since December, as importers stocked up ahead of the three-month festival season, data from a leading trade body showed on Monday.
Traders in the world's top cooking oil buyer had expected a 36 percent annual rise in July vegoil imports.

20100817 0927 FCPO EOD Daily Chart Study.(16 Aug 2010)

FCPO closed : 2678, changed : -40 points, volume : higher.
Bollinger band reading : correction range bound upside biased.
MACD Histrogram : weakenning, buyer reducing exposure.
Support : 2670, 2650, 2620 level.
Resistant : 2700, 2720, 2750 level.
Comment :
Dissapointing export data released lead FCPO to retrace lower in higher volume transaction and in the same time soy oil futures price also having downward correction. Daily chart shows market opened and tested little higher followed by selling pressure kicked start push price to dive all the way down to closed at the low formed and wide range down bar candle. Reading wise, market still having correction range bound upside biased market development testing lower support level.
When to buy : buy at support or weakness with quick cut loss and profit target.
When to sell : sell at resistant or strength with quick cut loss and profit target.