Tuesday, January 3, 2012

20120103 1819 FCPO EOD Daily Chart Study.

FCPO closed : 3225, changed : +50 points, volume : higher.
Bollinger band reading : little upside biased with possible pullback correction.
MACD Histrogram : rising, buyer still in charge.
Support : 3200, 3150, 3100, 3070 level.
Resistance : 3250, 3270, 3300, 3350 level.
Comment :
FCPO closed recorded gains with increased volume participation. CBOT soy oil contract closed for new year holiday while crude oil price surging higher.
Slightly declined but improving export data released today lifted FCPO price to trade higher following last Friday soy oil price that closed nearly 2% higher plus surging crude oil prices.
Daily chart formed a small up doji bar candle with upper shadow closed near upper Bollinger band level after market opened gap up edge upwards slowly and move side ways to closed off the high of the day.
Technical reading suggesting a little upside biased market development with possible pullback correction.
When to buy : buy at support or weakness with quick cut loss and profit target.
When to sell : sell at resistant or strength with quick cut loss and profit target.

ITS CPO export down 2.6% to 1,493,128 tonnes for the period of 1~31 Dec 2011.
SGS CPO export down 3.3% to 1,486,574 tonnes for the period of 1~31 Dec 2011.

20120103 1746 FKLI EOD Daily Chart Study.

FKLI closed : 1524.5, changed : +3 points, volume : higher.
Bollinger band reading : upside biased with possible pullback correction.
MACD Histrogram : resumed rising, buyer in control.
Support : 1515, 1505, 1500, 1494 level.
Resistance : 1530, 1540, 1550, 1565 level.
Comment :
FKLI closed recorded small gain with slightly better volume changed hand doing about 11 points premium compare to cash market that closed recorded loss. Overnight U.S. market closed for new year holiday and today Asia markets ended mostly higher while European markets also registering gains.
Higher manufacturing data from Australia, China and India restore some optimism that the Asian region’s economies will withstand Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis while awaits U.S. manufacturing report.
Daily chart formed an up doji bar candle closed little above upper Bollinger band level after market opened little higher and trade side way within 9 points range bound market testing support and resistance level to closed near opening price.
Chart study adjusted to suggesting an upside biased market development with possible pullback correction.
When to buy : buy at support or weakness with quick cut loss and profit target.
When to sell : sell at resistance or strength with quick cut loss and profit target.

20120103 1717 Regional Markets EOD Daily Chart Study.

 DJIA chart reading :  side way range bound.
 Hang Seng chart reading : side way range bound.
KLCI chart reading : pullback correction upside biased.

20120103 1553 Global Market & Commodities Related News.

FOREX-Euro claws higher vs dollar, but seen fragile
SINGAPORE, Jan 3 (Reuters) - The euro edged higher against the dollar and the yen on Tuesday but touched a record low versus the Australian dollar and looked set to remain under pressure in 2012 on worries over Europe's debt crisis.    
The euro gained a bit of reprieve as a rise in Asian equities underpinned risk appetite and spurred short-covering, helping it stay above an 11-year low against the yen touched the previous day.

Asian shares rise; Oil spikes on Iran tension
SINGAPORE, Jan 3 (Reuters) - Asian stocks rose as the first trading day of 2012 in most markets brought renewed appetite for riskier assets, while U.S. crude jumped 1.5 percent to above $100 a barrel on escalating tensions between Iran and the West.
"(The euro) ended last year on a downtrend, breaking key levels. Through much of last year, people were surprised how well it held up," said Greg Gibbs, a strategist at RBS.

Hong Kong Stocks Rise on First 2012 Trading Day on Global Data (Bloomberg)
Hong Kong stocks (HSI) rose on the opening trading day this year as manufacturing expanded in India and China and as economists forecast the U.S. labor market will improve. Chinese refiners gained on a report they may be allowed to set oil prices. Li & Fung Ltd. (494), a supplier to Wal-Mart Stores Inc. that gets more than half of its revenue from the U.S., gained 5 percent. Cnooc Ltd. (883), China’s No. 1 offshore oil producer, increased 4.6 percent as crude prices rose. PetroChina Co. jumped 5.1 percent after the report that China may allow refiners to set oil-product prices instead of the government. China Mengniu Dairy Co. (2319), a Chinese milk producer, rose 3.3 percent after China International Capital Corp. maintained its “buy” rating on the stock. The Hang Seng Index rose 2 percent to 18,810 as of 2:13 p.m. local time, headed for its highest close since Dec. 8. All but six stocks advanced in the 48-member gauge, which tumbled 20 percent last year, its first annual drop since 2008. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI) of mainland companies listed in Hong Kong climbed 2.9 percent to 10,219.62.

Asian Stocks Advance on Optimism Region’s Economy Weathering Europe Crisis (Bloomberg)
Asian stocks (MXAPJ) rose, with a regional gauge heading for a three-week high, as manufacturing growth from Australia, China and India added to optimism the region’s economies will withstand Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis. BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP), which gets about 28 percent of sales from China, gained 1.1 percent in Sydney. Industrial & Commercial Bank of China (601398) Ltd., the world’s No. 1 lender by market value, advanced 3.3 percent as trading in Hong Kong resumed. Li & Fung Ltd. (494), a supplier of toys and clothes to retailers including Wal-Mart Stores Inc., climbed 5.7 percent on speculation consumer spending in the U.S. will increase after payrolls climbed for a second month. “Positive economic data provide a catalyst for a small new-year rally,” said Pauline Dan, who oversees $480 million as chief investment officer at Samsung Asset Management in Hong Kong. “We’ll probably see more headwinds from Europe.”

Vietnam 2011 rubber imports jump, exports hit record
HANOI, Jan 3 (Reuters) - Vietnam, the world's fourth-largest exporter of natural rubber,  stepped up its imports of the commodity last year which helped enable record shipments in 2011, customs data show.
The Southeast Asian nation imported 343,000 tonnes of rubber as of Dec. 15, 2011, or 14.7 percent above the amount it imported during the whole of 2010, Vietnam Customs data seen by Reuters on Tuesday showed.

Vietnam coffee supply to slow next month
HANOI, Dec 30 (Reuters) - Coffee supply from Daklak, Vietnam's largest growing province, is expected to slow next month when the harvest ends as most farmers and buying agents will wait for higher prices before selling, a senior provincial official said on Friday.
Some analysts expect global coffee prices to surge early next year as tighter bank lending in top robusta producer Vietnam could choke off cash to exporters, cutting supply and pushing up premiums, even as the harvest rolls in.

Brazil industry, analysts expect record soy crop
SAO PAULO, Jan 2 (Reuters) - Brazil's 2012/13 soy crop, now starting into its first round of harvesting, should be of record size, the grains industry association and an independent analyst said on Monday, despite a dangerous dry spell hitting the country's far south.
Grains association Abiove, whose members include Bunge, ADM, Louis Dreyfus and Brazil's Maggi, estimated the world's No. 2 soy producer would harvest 74.6 million tonnes, up from its estimate for last season of 74.3 million tonnes.

Indonesia's Lampung Dec cocoa exports rise 25 pct y/y
BANDAR LAMPUNG, Indonesia, Jan 2 (Reuters) - Cocoa bean exports from Indonesia's Lampung province on Sumatra island rose 25 percent in December from a year ago, government trade office data showed on Monday.
Lampung's exports have been volatile in recent months,   although mostly falling throughout the year, as the Indonesian industry battles with pests and disease.

Indonesia's Dec Sumatra coffee bean exports fall 68 pct y/y
JAKARTA, Jan 2 (Reuters) - Indonesia's robusta coffee bean exports from the main growing area in southern Sumatra slumped 68 percent in December from a year ago, government trade data showed on Monday, as adverse weather conditions hit output.
Indonesia shipped 8,415.400 tonnes of robusta coffee beans in December, versus 26,255.23 tonnes last December, Muchtar Lutfie, research head of the Indonesia Coffee Exporters Association's (AEKI) Lampung branch, said in a statement.

India's Maharashtra sugar output up 18.8 pct in Oct-Dec
MUMBAI, Jan 2 (Reuters) - Sugar output from India's Maharashtra state, top producer of the sweetener in the country, was 18.8 percent higher on year in the first three months of 2011/12 crushing season that started on Oct. 1, an industry official said.
The increase in production is because of higher sugar recovery rate and an increase in the number of mills that are operational this year, said the official, who declined to be named.

Indonesia sees 2012 unmilled rice output up 10 pct
JAKARTA, Jan 2 (Reuters) - Indonesia's unmilled rice output is expected to rise 10 percent to 72.02 million tonnes this year as it expands plantation areas in line with its 2014 self-sufficiency target, a government minister said on Monday.
Southeast Asia's biggest economy has forecast that unmilled rice output would hit 65.4 million tonnes for 2011, less than it previously estimated, as hot weather and disease hit production.

Egypt's Alcotexa sells 2,072 T cotton in past week
CAIRO, Jan 1 (Reuters) - Egypt's Alexandria Cotton Exporters' Association (Alcotexa) committed to sell 2,072 tonnes of cotton in the week that ended on Dec. 31, an Alcotexa official said on Sunday.
The sales comprised 1,650 tonnes of the Giza 88 grade of cotton and 422 tonnes of Giza 86, the official said.

Brent crude up above $108 on China, Iran
SINGAPORE, Jan 3 (Reuters) - Brent crude rose to above $108 a barrel as China's manufacturing activity expanded slightly, lifting hopes of higher oil demand, and as rising tensions between Iran and the West created supply disruption fears.
"Over the next few months, it will be a balance of economic issues in Europe and the U.S. versus bullish geopolitical factors and the reality of economic growth in major Asian economies," Victor Shum, an oil consultant at Purvin & Gertz, said.

India hikes iron ore export duties to 30 pct
NEW DELHI, Jan 2 (Reuters) - India raised iron ore export duties to 30 percent from 20 as it seeks to conserve supplies for its own steel industry, sending down shares of iron ore producers and boosting those of steelmakers.
The government issued a formal order removing the previous 20 percent duty, and two revenue officials said this meant the rate reverted to 30 percent, which one of them said was the "peak tariff" level.

Copper rises after China's manufacturing expands
KUALA LUMPUR, Jan 3 (Reuters) - London copper rose, the first trading day of the year, as an expansion in China's manufacturing boosted hopes that demand for industrial metals will increase, but investors remained cautious as Europe's debt crisis persists.
"China's PMI number looks positive, better than most people had expected earlier on," said Huang Yiping, chief economist for emerging Asia at Barclays Capital in Hong Kong.

Indian gold imports plunge in Q4, seen down in Q1
MUMBAI, Jan 2 (Reuters) - Gold imports by India, the world's top consumer, plunged 56 percent to 125 tonnes in the fourth quarter, cutting full-year imports by 8.4 percent as record high prices and high interest rates hit demand, the head of India's leading bullion body said.
India, whose appetite for gold dates back centuries, imported about 878 tonnes of gold in 2011, down from 958 tonnes in 2010, Bombay Bullion Association President Prithviraj Kothari said in an interview on Monday.

METALS-Copper rises after China's manufacturing expands
KUALA LUMPUR, Jan 3 (Reuters) - London copper rose on Tuesday, the first trading day of the year, as an expansion in China's manufacturing boosted hopes that demand for industrial metals will increase, but investors remained cautious as Europe's debt crisis persists.
The metal posted its first annual decline in three years in 2011 when it lost a fifth of its value on fears related to the euro zone debt crisis and the global economic slowdown.

PRECIOUS-Gold, silver rally as new year rekindles risk appetite
SINGAPORE, Jan 3 (Reuters) - Gold rallied more than 1 percent and silver jumped over 2 percent on Tuesday as investors returned in the new year with a renewed appetite for riskier assets such as commodities, although global economic worries still weighed on sentiment.
Better-than-expected manufacturing data from China fuelled interest among investors who had moved to the sidelines because of year-end credit tightness.

20120103 1148 Global Economic Related News.

Singapore: Singapore GDP slowed to 4.8% as Lee predicts ‘difficult’ global conditions
Singapore‟s growth will weaken further this year after slowing in 2011, constrained by a “difficult” global environment and government efforts to cut foreign-worker inflow, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said. Gross domestic product (SGDYTY) rose 4.8% last year, Lee, 59, said in his New Year message released in Singapore on 1 Jan. That compares with the government‟s earlier forecast of a 5% increase and a 14.5% pace in 2010. The economy will expand 1% to 3% in 2012, Lee said, reiterating a trade-ministry estimate. (Bloomberg)

Indonesia: Inflation slows, giving Central Bank room to cut interest rates
Indonesia‟s inflation (IDCPIY) slowed for a fourth straight month in December to the lowest level since March 2010, an easing that may give the central bank scope to cut interest rates further. Consumer prices (IDCPIY) rose 3.79% from a year earlier in December, the Central Bureau of Statistics said in Jakarta yesterday. That compares with the 3.86% median estimate of 14 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Inflation was 4.15% in November. Bank Indonesia Governor Darmin Nasution and his board left the nation‟s benchmark interest rate at 6% last month after cuts in October and November, joining New Zealand and South Korea in holding borrowing costs as Europe‟s growth prospects deteriorated. Price pressures are easing in the Asia- Pacific region as demand for exports slows. (Bloomberg)

Australia: Manufacturing shows first expansion in six months
Australian manufacturing (AIGPMI) expanded for the first time in six months in December, driven by gains in basic metals, transport and publishing, a private survey showed. The manufacturing index (AIGPMI) was 50.2 last month compared with 47.8 in November, the Australian Industry Group and PricewaterhouseCoopers said in a survey released yesterday. It was the third reading for 2011 that was above 50, the dividing line between expansion and contraction. (Bloomberg)

China: Manufacturing gauge improves even as Europe demand slows economy
Chinese and Indian manufacturing gauges rose in December, suggesting that Asia‟s fastest-growing major economies are so far withstanding the fallout from Europe‟s sovereign-debt crisis. In China, a purchasing managers‟ index was at 50.3 from 49 in November, the Beijing-based logistics federation said in a statement on 1 Jan 2012. An Indian PMI rose to 54.2 from 51, HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics said yesterday. (Bloomberg)

China: Balance ‘quick’ growth with control of inflation in 2012, Hu says
China will balance “relatively quick” economic growth (CNGDPYOY) with inflation control in 2012, amid rising uncertainty about the world economic recovery, President Hu Jintao said in a speech on the 1 Jan. The government will speed up economic structural adjustment and give priority to improving people‟s well-being (CHINURBN), Hu said in the five-minute New Year‟s Eve speech carried on state television and radio. “We will continue to manage well the relationship between stable and relatively quick economic growth, structural adjustment and inflation,” Hu said. “Global interdependence is deepening while instability and uncertainty in the world economy‟s revival is increasing.” (Bloomberg)

US: Employment probably picked up in December
Hiring probably accelerated in December for a second month, a sign an improving US labor market will bolster consumer spending in early 2012, economists said before a report this week. Payrolls climbed by 150,000 workers after rising 120,000 in November, according to the median forecast of 62 economists in a Bloomberg News survey before Labor Department data on 6 Jan. The unemployment rate rose last month after reaching the lowest level in more than two years, the report may also show. (Bloomberg)

20120103 1147 Malaysia Corporate Related News.

Boustead to buy 16 planes for RM586m
Boustead‟s 51%-owned subsidiary MHS Aviation plans to acquire 16 aircraft from DRIR Management SB (DRIRM) and DRIR Rotor SB (DRIRR) for RM586.2m. The acquisition is part of its strategy to make MHS an aviation service provider which has a wide range of aircraft. The company said that ownership of the aircraft would provide further credibility to MHS when proposing its services to major oil and gas companies. Original cost for the aircraft by DRIRM and DRIRR are estimated at RM767.3m. (Malaysian Reserve)

RM3bn capex for TM
Telekom Malaysia (TM) plans to spend up to RM3bn in capex this year as it continues to roll out high speed broadband (HSBB) access to more areas and expand its Internet access beyond homes and offices via WiFi hotspots. Group CEO Datuk Seri Zamzamzairani Md Isa said that they want to add more hotspots in the country and will bundle WiFi with their Unifi offering for high-end users. TM currently has about 17,000 hot spots. (StarBiz)

Lekas Highway debt ratings downgraded by RAM
Lekas debt securities have been downgraded by RAM Ratings due to concerns over the company‟s ability to meet repayment obligations on a timely basis. RAM said the rating downgrades were premised on the highway‟s “persistently subdued traffic growth, coupled with its challenging prospects”. RAM downgraded Lekas‟ RM785m „senior sukuk Istisna‟ to BB1 from BBB1 and its RM633m „junior sukuk Istisna‟ to B1 from BBB3. The widening rating differential between the senior and junior sukuk reflects the latter‟s subordination in terms of cash flow priority and security. (Malaysian Reserve)

Arcadis-Towell venture wins USD44m contract
Arcadis, through a joint venture with Towell Construction, has won a USD44m (RM139.9m) contract to provide construction management services to Vale Malaysia Manufacturing SB. Vale Malaysia is a subsidiary of the Brazilian mining conglomerate Vale SA, which plans to build a USD1.4bn (RM4.45bn) industrial complex in Teluk Rubiah, Lumut. Arcadis holds a 75% stake in the JV, with Towell Construction holding the remaining 25%. This is the first phase of the Vale Malaysia project, which comprises the development of a regional iron ore distribution centre integrated into a deep water port terminal combined with a 24km long access trestle. The facility is scheduled to become operational in three years. (BT)