Tuesday, September 13, 2011

20110913 1812 FCPO EOD Daily Chart Study.

FCPO closed : 3019, changed : -52 points, volume : higher.
Bollinger band reading : side way range bound.
MACD Histrogram : turned lower, buyer seller battling.
Support : 2970, 2950, 2930, 2900 level.
Resistance : 3020, 3050, 3070, 3100 level.
Comment :
FCPO closed recorded substantial loss with better volume participation while overnight soy oil ended severely lower and currently trading weaker while crude oil currently rebounding higher.
Soy oil price recorded huge losses after unexpected higher soybean production and higher soy oil stock level due to sluggish demand forecast from USDA report.
Daily chart formed a down bar candle closed below middle Bollinger band level after market opened gap down, traded side ways sliding downward slowly to closed near the low of the day.
Technical reading turned to suggesting a side way range bound market development testing support and resistance level.
When to buy : buy at support or weakness with quick cut loss and profit target.
When to sell : sell at resistant or strength with quick cut loss and profit target.

20110913 1726 FKLI EOD Daily Chart Study.

FKLI closed : 1434.5, changed : -0.5 points, volume : lower.
Bollinger band reading : downside biased.
MACD Histrogram : weakening, seller taking position.
Support : 1425, 1405, 1395, 1385 level.
Resistance : 1445, 1458, 1470, 1485 level.
Comment :
FKLI closed recorded tiny loss with lower volume transacted doing 13.5 points discount compare to cash market that ended little higher. Overnight U.S. market closed higher and Asia markets ended mixed while European markets currently trading mostly in negative zone.
Bearish sentiment accelerate after news Greece's risk of default rise to 98%, higher inflation rate recorded for U.K. and France and Italy seeking aid from China amid further turmoil over European debt crisis.
Daily chart formed a down bar candle closed near lower Bollinger band level after market higher, traded side way range bound followed by late afternoon sell down pressed price lower to closed near the low of the day.
Technical reading revise to suggesting downside biased market development testing support and resistance level awaits further confirmation news from Europe.
When to buy : buy at support or weakness with quick cut loss and profit target.
When to sell : sell at resistance or strength with quick cut loss and profit target.

20110913 1725 Regional Markets EOD Daily Chart Study.

DJIA chart reading : side way range bound little downside biased.
KLCI chart reading : downside biased.

20110913 1646 Global Market & Commodities Related News.

GLOBAL MARKETS-Stocks, euro recover after slide; outlook wary
SINGAPORE, Sept 13 (Reuters) - Asian stocks rose  and the euro edged off a seven-month low after a report that Italy may get financial support from China sparked a bout of short-covering but did nothing to ease fears that Europe is sliding into another banking crisis.
"There are still enormous challenges facing the European system at this point and fears around a default in Greece are very high and it's hard to see that changing any time soon," said Greg Gibbs, a strategist at RBS in Sydney

European Stocks Extend Two-Year Low (Bloomberg)
European stocks declined, with the Stoxx Europe 600 Index extending a two-year low, as French banks tumbled amid mounting concern that Greece will default. U.S. futures dropped, while Asian shares were little changed. The Stoxx 600 slipped 1.2 percent to 216.22 at 9:17 a.m. in London. The gauge has fallen 26 percent from this year’s peak on Feb. 17 as European and U.S. economic reports trailed forecasts, adding to concern that the global economic recovery is at risk. The retreat has left the gauge trading at 9 percent the estimated earnings of its companies, the lowest valuation since March 2009, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.1 percent today, while Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures expiring in December slipped 1.4 percent.

FOREX-Euro firm after short-covering rally, downtrend intact
TOKYO, Sept 13 (Reuters) - The euro held firm after a choppy session overnight saw a wave of short-covering lift it by more than two cents on hopes that China will bolster Italy by buying its bonds, but traders found few reasons to stay upbeat about the currency.
"All eyes are squarely on that seven-month low around $1.35 hit  overnight," said Koji Fukaya, director of global foreign exchange research at Credit Suisse Securities in Tokyo.

GRAINS-US corn firm on tightening supplies, wheat up
SINGAPORE, Sept 13 (Reuters) - Chicago corn rose for a third straight session as a government forecast of a lower U.S. crop this year continued to buoy the market, while wheat rose around half a percent, recovering from a one-month low on bargain hunting.
"We saw wheat lose ground to corn last night as a result of the USDA report; today it is probably profit taking on the wheat-corn spread," said Brett Cooper, a senior manager of markets at FCStone Australia.

Australia sees record wheat exports, may pressure prices
SYDNEY, Sept 13 (Reuters) - Australian wheat exports could reach a record high in 2011/12, with the harvest also seen close to a new peak, helped by better growing conditions in some key crop areas, the government's chief commodities forecaster said on Tuesday.
The forecast of more wheat supplies from Australia is bearish for the market as it comes against the backdrop of higher-than-expected global production and stockpiles estimated by the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

Western Canada harvest well ahead of normal
WINNIPEG, Manitoba, Sept 12 (Reuters) - The harvest of all crops in Western Canada is well ahead of normal, due to ideal dry, warm weather, the Canadian Wheat Board said on Monday.
Sixty percent of the crop has been harvested, compared to 49 percent normally and 23 percent last year, the board said.

Brazil CS sugar output down 9.4 pct - Unica
SAO PAULO, Sept 12 (Reuters) - Sugar production in Brazil's center-south totaled 20.4 million tonnes from the start of the season to Sept. 1, down 9.4 percent from the same date a year earlier, cane industry association Unica said in a statement on Monday.
Cane crush since the beginning of the season in April reached 338.1 million tonnes, down 11 percent from a year earlier. Ethanol production lagged last year's output by 18.6 percent at 13.8 billion liters, Unica said.

US corn crop shrinks on heat; high prices curb demand
WASHINGTON, Sept 12 (Reuters) - A 3 percent reduction in the U.S. corn crop after a scorching summer will be largely offset by an abrupt fall in demand from both domestic and export consumers, the government forecast on Monday.
In a report that painted a marginally brighter outlook for world grain supplies thanks to larger wheat and rice crops, the Agriculture Department said U.S. corn yields had deteriorated even more than analysts had forecast, falling 4.9 bushels per acre to 148.1 bushels, lowest in six years.

W.Canada farmers back grain monopoly in nonbinding vote
WINNIPEG, Manitoba, Sept 12 (Reuters) - Nearly two-thirds of Western Canada's farmers want to keep a decades-old monopoly system for selling their grain, according to a non-binding vote that is unlikely to derail plans to open the market.
The mail-in vote, which Ottawa said was flawed, appears to entrench both sides in their adversarial positions with less than 11 months to design any new model for the Canadian Wheat Board if it is to continue operating once the monopoly ends in August 2012.

Ivorian cocoa output to slip in upcoming crop -BCC
ABIDJAN, Sept 12 (Reuters) - Ivory Coast's cocoa production during the forthcoming 2011-12 main crop will fall short of last year's record, the head of industry regulator BCC told Reuters on Monday.
"We have not yet finished our work to come up with a specific projection, but we are expecting much less this year," Eric Koffi told Reuters by telephone.

India's August rubber imports slump 42 pct on year
MUMBAI, Sept 12 (Reuters) - India's natural rubber imports in August slumped 42 percent to 14,060 tonnes from a year ago as prices in the local market fell below international levels, erasing the incentive for tyre companies to buy overseas, the state-run Rubber Board said.
In August, domestic prices were over 2 rupees per kg lower than the international market. On Aug. 31, the local market price was 214 rupees per kg compared with 216.6 rupees in Thailand.

Oil rises on weak dollar after Wall St. rally
SINGAPORE, Sept 13 (Reuters) - Oil rose by as much as $1 as a weaker dollar rekindled some of the appeal of commodities and concern about Europe's deteriorating debt crisis eased temporarily.
"This is a shallow bounce because of Wall Street ending higher, so there is some confidence returning, but I don't think anybody would be putting any big positions given the global situation," said Victor Say, an analyst at Informa Global Markets in Singapore.

North Dakota oil up 40,000 bpd in July, hits record
NEW YORK, Sept 12 (Reuters) - North Dakota's oil production surged nearly 40,000 barrels per day (bpd) in July to a record 423,600 bpd, as drillers worked at a breakneck pace to add new wells and ramp up output in the prolific Bakken shale prospect.
The bonanza month surprised analysts and industry operators, and came as oil companies caught up on activities that had been stalled due to harsh winter weather and spring floods, according to said Lynn Helms, director of the Industrial Commission for North Dakota.

Total says to prospect for shale gas in France
PARIS, Sept 12 (Reuters) - Total  said on Monday  it wants to prospect for shale gas in France's southeast region but stressed it would not use the banned hydraulic fracturing drilling technique.
The French oil major wants to develop production of natural gas from shale rock formations as part of a strategy to boost unconventional oil and gas production to offset dwindling reserves.

Japan Aug aluminium stocks up 18.5 pct m/m
TOKYO, Sept 12 (Reuters) - Aluminium stocks held at three major Japanese ports came to 241,200 tonnes at the end of August, up 37,700 tonnes or 18.5 percent from a month earlier, trading house Marubeni Corp  said on Monday.
Marubeni collects data from the key ports of Yokohama, Nagoya and Osaka.

China copper imports up but for how long?: Andy Home
-Andy Home is a Reuters columnist. The opinions expressed are his own-
LONDON, Sept 12 (Reuters) - Copper bulls have finally got something to cheer about in terms of Chinese imports of the red metal.  
Having spent the first part of this year in de-stocking mode, the world's biggest buyer of copper registered a marked pick-up in imports last month.

Southern Copper advancing $1.3 bln Peru mine
AREQUIPA, Peru, Sept 12 (Reuters) - Southern Copper expects to complete the feasibility study for its $1.3 billion Los Chancas project in Peru this year and is preparing to resume talks with the government over its planned Tia Maria mine, the company's chief executive told Reuters.
The new Los Chancas mine could produce an estimated 80,000 tonnes of copper per year starting in 2015, CEO Oscar Gonzalez said late on Sunday before the opening of the biannual Perumin convention in Arequipa.

China commodity imports impress, with caveats: Clyde Russell
-Clyde Russell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own-
SINGAPORE, Sept 12 (Reuters) - China's robust commodity imports in August show why Asia-focused investors remain considerably more upbeat than their European and U.S. counterparts.
Strong gains in imports of crude oil, copper and iron ore, coupled with still solid industrial production and signs that inflation is finally slowing, have combined to ease concerns that the world's largest commodity user is heading for a hard economic landing.

METALS-LME copper up on hopes of China buying Italian bonds
SHANGHAI, Sept 13 (Reuters) - London copper prices rose 0.8 pct on reports that China could bolster Italy's flagging economy by buying its bonds, adding a lift to negative investor sentiment over Europe's sovereign debt crisis.
"If China supports euro zone countries by buying up their bonds, it will lend support to the euro and cause the dollar to weaken, which will be good for commodities as a whole," said Great Wall Futures analyst Li Rong.

Australia's Sundance says remains in talks with Hanlong
SYDNEY, Sept 13 (Reuters) - Australian miner Sundance Resources  remains in advanced talks with Hanlong Mining over the development of an iron ore project in Africa despite an insider trading probe into one of the private Chinese firm's executives, the firm said.
"Sundance continues to progress its advanced negotiations with Hanlong Mining, as well as with a number of other interested parties, in regards to the development of the Mbalam Iron Ore Project in the Republics of Cameroon and Congo," Sundance said in a statement on Monday

Philippines doubles fcast for 2011 mining investments
MANILA, Sept 13 (Reuters) - New investments in Philippine mining projects this year could easily reach $2.8 billion, double an earlier forecast, with more projects to be funded by Chinese firms, a senior government official said on Tuesday.
Investments in five major mining projects were expected to hit around $8 billion from 2012 to 2016, Leo Jasareno, chief of the Mines and Geosciences Bureau, told reporters.

Tajik Jan-Aug aluminium output off 20 pct y/y-source
DUSHANBE, Sept 12 (Reuters) - Central Asia's largest producer of primary aluminium, Tajikistan Aluminium Company (TALCO), cut output of the metal to 189,838 tonnes in the January-August period, down 20 percent year on year, a company source said on Monday.        
Output in August was 18,771 tonnes, down 8.9 percent from July and off 33.1 percent from a year earlier, said the company official, who declined to be identified.

PRECIOUS-Gold rebounds 1 pct on persistent euro zone worries
SINGAPORE, Sept 13 (Reuters) - Gold prices rebounded 1 percent from a sell-off in the previous session, as heightened worries about the sovereign debt crisis in Europe remain supportive of safe-haven demand for bullion.
"There is a slow-motion train wreck going on in Europe at the moment, which is going to be relatively supportive of gold," said Nick Trevethan, senior commodities strategist at ANZ.

METALS-LME copper up on hopes of China buying Italian bonds
SHANGHAI, Sept 13 (Reuters) - London copper prices rose 0.8 pct on reports that China could bolster Italy's flagging economy by buying its bonds, adding a lift to negative investor sentiment over Europe's sovereign debt crisis.
"If China supports euro zone countries by buying up their bonds, it will lend support to the euro and cause the dollar to weaken, which will be good for commodities as a whole," said Great Wall Futures analyst Li Rong.

PRECIOUS-Gold rebounds 1 pct on persistent euro zone worries
SINGAPORE, Sept 13 (Reuters) - Gold prices rebounded 1 percent from a sell-off in the previous session, as heightened worries about the sovereign debt crisis in Europe remain supportive of safe-haven demand for bullion.
"There is a slow-motion train wreck going on in Europe at the moment, which is going to be relatively supportive of gold," said Nick Trevethan, senior commodities strategist at ANZ.

20110913 1128 Global Market & Commodities Related News.

GLOBAL MARKETS-Stocks, euro recover after slide; outlook wary
HONG KONG, Sept 13 (Reuters) - Asian stocks steadied and the euro held above a seven-month low against the dollar on short-covering on Tuesday, after a report that Italy may get financial support from China lifted Wall Street in late trade but did nothing to ease fears that Europe is descending into a banking crisis.
"European fears will continue despite the latest developments, because the euro zone's problems are not easily solved, but Japanese stocks were oversold yesterday, so we will see some traders buying back shares today," said Kenichi Hirano, operating officer at Tachibana Securities.

More Job Cuts Loom for European Banks (Bloomberg)
European banks may resort to more jobs cuts or zero bonuses as they struggle to maintain fixed compensation levels amid deteriorating financial markets. The companies are facing shrinking revenue and higher costs after raising base salaries of investment bankers by as much as 100 percent. That decision, which followed regulations to curb bonuses in the wake of the credit crisis, is irreversible even if conditions worsen, lawyers and consultants said, leaving banks with fewer options in their bid to improve margins. “The absolute last thing banks will want do is cut current salaries unless they have an explicit contractual right to do so,” said Jason Butwick, a London-based employment attorney at law firm Dechert LLP. “The legal, reputational, commercial and logistical risks of going down that route are huge.”

China’s Stocks Fall to 14-Month Low as Economic Data Fuel Policy Concerns (Bloomberg)
China’s stocks fell, dragging the benchmark index to a 14-month low, on concern the government may intensify policy tightening after imports jumped to a record and new lending increased. Industrial & Commercial Bank of China (601398) Ltd. and China Construction Bank Corp. (939) declined at least 0.9 percent after the Beijing News reported the central bank sold additional bills to major lenders, a step to drain liquidity from the banking system. Jiangxi Copper Co. and Aluminum Corp. of China Ltd. retreated more than 2 percent among commodity companies. BYD Co., the automaker part-owned by Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc., tumbled 6.5 percent on a bond-sale plan. The Shanghai Composite Index, which tracks the bigger of China’s stock exchanges, dropped 37.10 points, or 1.5 percent, to 2,460.65 as of 11:10 a.m. local time. The gauge, which fell 1.2 percent last week, is headed for its lowest close since July 16, 2010. The CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300) sank 1.7 percent to 2,705.25.

Corn Rises Most in a Week as U.S. Crop Forecast Trails Analyst Estimates (Bloomberg)
Corn futures rose the most in a week after the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s monthly forecast on production trailed estimates by analysts. Output will be 12.497 billion bushels this year, the USDA said today in a report. Analysts in a Bloomberg News survey projected 12.554 billion, on average. Last month, the agency forecast 12.914 billion. Yields will drop to a six-year low, the government said. Prices in the U.S., the world’s top exporter, have jumped 56 percent in the past 12 months as adverse weather eroded supplies. “Supplies are going to be tight this year,” Jerry Gidel, a market analyst at North American Risk Management Services Inc. in Chicago, said in a telephone interview. “Ethanol and livestock producers were buying today because they are worried the crop may get smaller” after the USDA reports harvest results and acreage adjustments in October, he said.

North Dakota oil up 40,000 bpd in July, hits record
NEW YORK, Sept 12 (Reuters) - North Dakota's oil production surged nearly 40,000 barrels per day (bpd) in July to a record 423,600 bpd, as drillers worked at a breakneck pace to add new wells and ramp up output in the prolific Bakken shale prospect.
The bonanza month surprised analysts and industry operators, and came as oil companies caught up on activities that had been stalled due to harsh winter weather and spring floods, according to said Lynn Helms, director of the Industrial Commission for North Dakota.

Saudi Arabia keep supply steady as Libya returns
TOKYO/SINGAPORE, Sept 12 (Reuters) - Saudi Arabia will keep its crude oil supply volume to Asia and Europe unchanged at relatively high level, traders and market sources said on Monday, while Libyan crude oil production was just restarting.
The world's top oil exporter and OPEC kingpin will supply full contracted volumes of crude oil in October to at least three major Asian term buyers, steady from September.

Oil rises $1 with equities, weaker dollar
SINGAPORE, Sept 13 (Reuters) - Oil tracked equities higher on Tuesday as a weaker dollar rekindled some appeal for commodities as concern eased about Europe's deteriorating debt crisis.  
The euro bounced back from Monday's seven-month lows against the dollar on news that China, the world's second-largest oil user, might bolster Italy with financial support, tempering fears of a Greek debt default and contagion.  

NYMEX-Natgas ends down slightly, weather, economy weigh
NEW YORK, Sept 12 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures ended down slightly on Monday as milder U.S. weather forecasts, a weak economy and growing supplies pressured the complex despite increasing tropical storm activity.
"Prices could still move down. Storage is in a good place and we should see another above-average build this week, and a lot of the heat is over," a West Coast trader said.

Euro Coal-Sep S.Africa prices pressured, bids drop
LONDON, Sept 12 (Reuters) - European prompt physical coal prices weakened slightly on Monday, with the greatest downward pressure felt by South African cargoes for immediate loading in September.
"September Richards Bay prices have been odd, collapsing because there's minimal buying interest and cargoes are soon to load, but slightly further forward prices look steadier," one European trader said.

COMMODITIES-Gold, copper dive on euro zone woes; oil mixed
NEW YORK, Sept 12 (Reuters) - Gold fell for a second straight session on Monday and copper slid as the dollar rallied against the euro on worries about a Greek debt default and potential downgrades for French banks.
"Depending on whether the situation in stock markets calms down, this could go on for another couple of days," said Peter Fertig, a consultant for gold at Quantitative Commodity Research in Germany.

20110913 1008 Local & Global Economic Related News.

There will be another round of economic liberalisation in the Budget announcement next  month, said  PM Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak. "Liberalisation is good for our long-term  sustainable competitiveness. It builds our intrinsic strengths not through protection or  subsidies," he said in an interview with Forbes Asia Magazine.
• "We should be competitive because of factors such as our productivity, technologies and  processes," said Najib.
• On the country’s economic ties with Asia and the Middle East, he said: “One area I  would like to enhance significantly is to encourage the Chinese to increase their longterm investments in Malaysia beyond short-term investment in projects such as  construction”. (Bernama)  

All Malaysian gasoline stations will offer bio-diesel fuel by next year, Plantation Industries  and Commodities Minister Bernard Dompok said. Meanwhile, Malaysia expressed concern  over an Australian palm oil-labeling bill, he said. “We are seeking help and have written to  some of the lawmakers in Australia to oppose the bill. We are confident that the Australian  federal government will reject the bill,” he said. (Bernama)  

The government targets to achieve at least 48% highly-skilled workers by 2020, in line  with the country's aspiration of achieving high-income nation status. Human Resource  Minister Datuk S. Subramaniam said Malaysia's workforce was still relatively low-skilled with 80% of them educated up to only the Sijil Pelajaran Malaysia (SPM) level or  equivalent in 2007. "And today, only 25% of Malaysian jobs are considered skilled. This is  much below that of Singapore at 49%, Taiwan at 33% and South Korea at 36%," he said.  (Bernama)  

The Rubber Industry Smallholders Development Authority (RISDA) has been allocated  RM121m by the government to carry out  rubber replanting programme, covering 40  hectares nationwide, next year. Its chairman, Tan Sri Rahim Thamby Chik, said it was the  biggest allocation received by Risda. Under the replanting programme, each small holders  in the peninsula would receive aid of RM9,230 per hectare, while those in Sabah and  Sarawak would get RM14,000, he added. (Bernama)  

Malaysia has made an encouraging move by restructuring its  economy and building a  positive environment to attract foreign investments into the country, said  chairman and  editor-in-chief of Forbes Media, Steve Forbes. There had been more follow through  action from  two years ago, including reducing investment barriers such as taxes and  bureaucracy as well as dealing with subsidy related issues, he said.
• Forbes said Malaysia can offer attractive packages  such as strategic location, rich  resources, a good English speaking population, a government friendly towards investors  and policies that are developed towards opening up the economy.
• The government's efforts to help develop what economists called "intellectual capital" to  move ahead and continuously make changes, was a positive step to enable the country  to make the transition and achieve the goal of becoming a high income economy in the  next decade, he added. (Bernama)  

The affirmative action taken by the government which is merit based and the free trade  agreements (FTAs) signed with several countries are proof that Malaysia is not a  protectionist country, Minister of International Trade and Industry Datuk Seri Mustapa  Mohamed said. "We are now talking to nine countries on Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP)  Agreement including U.S. and we are also discussing with the European Union on a  possible FTA. It clearly shows that Malaysia is a very open economy and not a  protectionist economy," he added. (Bernama)  

According to a survey done by The Associated Chinese Chambers of Commerce and  Industry of Malaysia (ACCCIM), entrepreneurs consider government policies (46%) as  the key factor that most “adversely” affected their business performance in 1H11. Its  president Tan Sri William Cheng Heng Jem pointed out that rising fuel costs, more  expensive natural gas and higher electricity tariff as a result of the government’s efforts to  trim subsidies are putting a burden on the business community.
• Cheng also voiced his concern over the government’s plan to raise the minimum wages  in the country which will eventually add more to the cost of doing business.
• Besides that, external risks posed challenges to local businesses despite projects under  the Economic Transformation Programme and the government's measures to promote  domestic demand, he noted.
• Given the increasingly uncertain global economy, he said, Malaysian businesses would  continue to look towards the government to introduce and implement stimulating  economic policies and accelerate implementation of  public development  projects to  ensure domestic demand remained strong.
• About 59% of the businessmen expressed confidence in their business outlook for next  year while 62% were confident for 2013. (Financial Daily, Bernama, The Star)  

Malaysian manufacturers  should take note of the rise in demand for  green and ecofriendly products  and systems in Thailand, said the Malaysia External  Trade  Development Corporation (Matrade). This is due to the growing trend of eco-friendly office  buildings and hotels in the country which are implementing green technologies.
• Green products that Malaysian companies can supply  include, air and water care  systems, cleaners and degreasers, energy-efficient electrical systems and appliances,  environmental-friendly materials, water-efficient equipment and water usage systems, it   noted.
• Malaysians can also supply carbon monoxide monitoring systems for underground car  parks and systems to harvest waste water and rain water to provide irrigation, it added.  (Bernama)

Big  Japanese manufacturers have turned optimistic about conditions in 3Q as  bottlenecks in manufacturing eased following the 11 Mar natural disaster. The  business  survey index (BSI) of sentiment at large manufacturers stood at +10.3 in 3Q (-23.3 in 2Q),  a joint survey by the Ministry of Finance and the Economic and Social Research Institute  showed. (Reuters)  

This year’s surge in Russian wheat exports, big enough to feed Japan for more than two  years, may fail to stop a rally as global demand overwhelms supply curbed by droughts  from the U.S. to Australia. Russian sales will gain more than fourfold to 17.9m metric tons  this year, second only to the U.S., analysts’ forecasts showed. That won’t be enough to  stop global stockpiles shrinking for a second year, the U.S. Department of Agriculture  estimates. Prices will rise 16% to US$8.50/bushel by the end of Dec, according to analysts  surveyed. (Bloomberg)  

Vietnam auto sales rose 9.8% yoy in Aug (-11.0% in Jul), to 9,518 units, reversing the  recent negative trend, partly due to sharply higher passenger car sales. (Reuters)  

Thailand’s government signalled it wants the nation’s central bank to  stop raising  interest rates as it seeks to stoke growth. The Bank of Thailand has boosted borrowing  costs six times this year to damp inflation, raising rates by the most in Asia outside India.  The state planning agency in Aug cut its 2011 growth forecast to 3.5%-4.0%, from 4.5%  earlier.  These remarks signal a conflict with the central bank’s stance that may lead to a  stalemate in policy making. (Bloomberg)  

China's central bank said that stabilizing prices remains its priority, reinforcing signs that  Beijing is unlikely to loosen the reins on the world's No. 2 economy any time soon despite  mounting global uncertainties.The People's Bank of China also gave fresh  acknowledgment that its traditional measuring tools have failed to keep up with recent  changes in the Chinese financial system and it is considering adjusting its benchmark  money supply measure to help plug the resulting gaps. (Wall Street Journal)

India: India industrial output grows at slowest pace since 2009, missing estimates
India’s industrial production grew in July at the slowest pace in almost two years as consumer demand moderated after record interest-rate increases. The INR fell to the lowest level in more than a year. Output at factories, utilities and mines rose 3.3% from a year earlier, following an 8.8% gain in June, the Central Statistical Office said in a statement in New Delhi yesterday. Reserve Bank of India Governor Duvvuri Subbarao has to weigh the risks to expansion posed by Europe’s debt crisis and a faltering US recovery against inflation when he makes his next policy decision on 16 Sept. (Bloomberg)

EU: Italy turns to China for help in debt crisis
Italy’s centre-right government is turning to cash-rich China in the hope that Beijing will help rescue it from financial crisis by making “significant” purchases of Italian bonds and investments in strategic companies. Italian officials were in Beijing two weeks ago to meet CIC and China’s State Administration of Foreign Exchange, which manages the bulk of China’s USD3,200bn foreign exchange reserves. Italian officials said further negotiations were expected to take place soon. The possibility of Chinese investment comes at a critical moment for Italy, as markets demand increasingly high yields to buy Italian public sector debt, projected to reach 120% of GDP this year, a ratio second only to Greece in the Eurozone. (FT)

EU: Papandreou sets new measures to skirt default
PM George Papandreou, vowing to avoid a default and keep Greece in the Euro, approved new measures to help plug a yawning budget gap as resistance builds at home and in Europe to extending more aid to the European Union’s most-indebted nation. The Cabinet yesterday voted to cut one month’s wages from all elected officials and impose an annual charge on all property for two years, to be levied through electricity bills to ensure rapid collection, Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos told reporters in the northern Greek city of Thessaloniki. The measures will help the country meet deficit targets of EUR17.1bn (USD23.6bn) in 2011 and EUR14.9bn in 2012, covering a EUR2bn shortfall for this year that has been exacerbated by a deepening recession, he said. (Bloomberg)

US: Plan emerges to pay for Obama Jobs Bill
President Barack Obama is targeting high earners, private equity managers and oil and gas companies in his bid to pay for a USD447bn job-creation plan. The revenue-raising provisions of the legislation that Obama sent to Congress today were mostly pulled from previous administration budget proposals that have been rejected by Republicans in Congress. At a White House Rose Garden event earlier today, Obama called on lawmakers to act on the proposal with “no games, no politics, no delays.” Republicans, who control the House of Representatives, have signaled they may be willing to support some of the tax cuts for businesses and workers Obama recommends while expressing skepticism about his spending proposals and reliance on raising taxes for some individuals and industries. (Bloomberg)

The  U.S. economy will grow less than previously estimated through 2012, reflecting a  slump in confidence, limited consumer spending and a struggling housing market, a survey  showed. Gross domestic product in the world’s largest economy will expand 1.7% this  year, less than the May forecast of 2.8%, according to results of a survey by the National  Association for Business Economics. Growth in 2012 will average 2.3% after a previous projection of 3.2%. (Bloomberg)

20110913 1007 Malaysia Corporate Related News.

Telcos defer plan on prepaid service tax
Telecommunication companies DiGi, Axiata, Maxis and U-Mobile SB agreed to defer the 6% service tax for prepaid users, slated to come into effect on Thursday. The decision to defer the service tax was arrived at after a meeting with Information, Communications and Culture Minister Datuk Seri Dr Rais Yatim at Angkasapuri yesterday. (Financial Daily)

Court acquits ex-Sime Bank CEO
Former Sime Bank CEO Datuk Ismail Zakaria was yesterday acquitted and discharged by the Sessions Court here from four charges of acting beyond his authority to approve credit facilities totaling RM175m to an investment company. Judge Datuk Khadijah Idris said the defence succeeded in casting reasonable doubts on the prosecution’s case. (Financial Daily)

Wenzhou bureau to invest RM900m in ECER
The East Coast Economic Region (ECER) has received a RM900m investment pledge from China-based Wenzhou Foreign Trade and Economic Cooperation Bureau to establish an integrated industrial park in Kuantan, Pahang. The integrated industrial park comprises logistics and warehousing facilities at ECER’s Special Economic Zone in the state. Wenzhou will have its first trading complex in ECER which will be based in the integrated industrial park to boost bilateral trade. (Malaysian Reserve)

KKB Engineering bags contracts worth RM31m
KKB Engineering has secured two contracts worth RM30.7m – for water pipes and gas cylinders. It received a local purchase order from YWP Builders SB via its subsidiary, Harum Bidang SB, to manufacture and supply MSCL water pipes and pipe specials for the Bekalan Air Luar Bandar project in Sarawak. (Malaysian Reserve) Please see accompanying report

SFP, ECM Libra form strategic partnership
Financial advisory firm Standard Financial Planner SB signed an agreement with ECM Libra Investment Bank to offer its financial products and services to the latter’s affluent, high net worth individuals and corporate clients. “The partnership is synergistic as both parties will be able to focus and provide their expertise in their respective areas. This will eventually lead to keeping costs down and the main beneficiaries from this partnership would ultimately be the clients” ECM Libra executive vice president of wealth management Martin Chu said. (Malaysian Reserve)

DBE Gurney sell its Lumut land for RM30m
DBE Gurney Resources wholly-owned unit, DBE Poultry SB, has entered into a MoU with Mutiara Bernas (M) SB (MBSB) to sell its property in the Lumut Port Industrial Park in Lumut, Perak for RM30m The property consists of land and poultry processing plant built on the site. (Malaysian Reserve)

Oil development pact
Dialog Group’s wholly-owned subsidiary, Dialog D&P SB entered into a shareholders’ agreement with Roc Oil Malaysia (Holdings) SB (ROC) and Petronas Carigali SB (PCSB) to jointly develop and produce petroleum from the Balai Cluster Fields, offshore Bintulu, Sarawak. The deal will pave the way for Dialog, ROC and PCSB to be strategic business partners in the equity ownership and development of the small field risk service contract. (BT)

Sime Darby Bhd : SC’s Sime-E&O dilemma
After being bombarded with queries by the investing public and shareholder activists alike, the Securities Commission (SC) has issued a statement saying it is viewing all “stock transactions by all parties” in Sime Darby Bhd’s acquisition of a 30.0% stake in property developer Eastern & Oriental Bhd (E&O). In accordance with the SC’s internal governance processes, the reviews on the acquisition are being led by the two most senior commission members, Datuk Francis Tan and Datuk Gumuri Hussain. SC chair Tan Sri Zarinah Anwar recused herself from the onset. – The Edge

JAKS Resources Bhd : To expand power project in Vietnam
In diversifying its business into the power sector, JAKS Resources Bhd said the company will focus mainly on the Vietnamese market, with plans to expand its power generation capacity to between 5,000 MW and 10,000 MW over the next five to 10 years. JAKS executive chairman T.H. Goh said that they have managed to secure the strong support of the government for their venture and that their power plant project in Vietnam will lead to spinoff projects in the country later on. JAKS is a key player in the water-related industry in Malaysia. It is involved in a wide range of other businesses through its subsidiaries such as water infrastructure construction work, the manufacturing and trading of pipes and related products, general infrastructure and construction works and property development. Venturing into the power-generating industry is part of a plan to diversify its business. - StarBiz

Plantation Industries and Commodities Minister Tan Sri Bernard Dompok, said the stability  of the CPO price, which is trading above RM3,000 per tonne, was well supported by lower  production and inventory in August. He pointed out that the lower CPO output last month  was mainly attributed to palm fruit harvesters, mainly Indonesian workers, who went home  for Hari Raya Aidil Fitri in the final week of August.  
• Palm oil inventory in August also eased despite lower exports as most major importing  countries like China, Egypt and several other Middle-East nations had increased their  imports during the JuneJuly period to replenish their stocks prior to the Hari Raya  celebrations.  
• Another point of interest in the MPOB's August statistics is the higher exports of palm  biodiesel by almost 63 times to 13,783 tonnes from just 24 tonnes in July. According to  MPOB director-general Datuk Dr Choo May Yuen, the significant jump in biodiesel  exports was due to the strong demand from the European Union at 12,017 tonnes in  August compared with only 18 tonnes in July. (Starbiz)

Malaysia’s palm oil exports fell 36.4% in the first 10 days of September compared with the  same period a month earlier, independent market surveyor Intertek said. (Bloomberg)

AirAsia has signed a term sheet with an intention of a formal agreement with  QPR  Holdings (parent company of Queen Park Rangers) for the sponsorship of the QPR’s  away shirt in the Barclays Premier League. The sponsorship will stretch for seasons  2011/2012 and 2012/2013.
• Malaysia Airline (MAS) also inked a deal with the football club to sponsor the home  jerseys for the next two seasons. (Malaysian Reserve)

Malaysia Airlines (MAS) has chosen corporate veteran Ahmad Jauhari Yahya as its new  chief executive in an effort to nurse the national carrier back to profitability and launch an  express airline named Sapphire in November, sources say.  He will be assisted by newlyappointed executive director Mohammed Rashdan Yusof as the number two.
• Ahmad Jauhari’s only experience in aviation is his appointment to the Malaysia Airports  board last March. He is now the managing director and chief executive officer of  Premium Renewable Energy (Malaysia) Sdn Bhd since March 2011 and has previously  served as the managing director at several companies, including Malakoff, Malaysian  Resources Corp Bhd and Time Engineering.
• Sapphire is planned to start in November as a premium short-haul carrier against  Fernandes’ AirAsia budget airline. Firely will stop using the Boeing jets from September  15 and instead focus on turbo-prop operations within the Malay peninsula from its  Subang Skypark base. (Malaysian Insider)  

Axiata is in the latest list of Forbest Asia's Fab 50, the only Malaysian company to have  made the cut this year. It was chosen to join the list from a total of 1,073 companies after  its sales jumped by one third to US$5.1 bn (RM15.4 bn). The Fab 50 list takes into account  companies with at least US$3 bn (RM9 bn) in revenue or market cap and five-year track  records for revenue, operating earnings, return on  capital, recent results, share price  movements and outlook. It excludes companies with too much debt or where the  government owns half the shares. (BT)  

General Motors (GM) officially opened a new state-of-the-art US$200m (RM606m) diesel  engine plant in Rayong, Thailand, its most significant power-train investment in South-East  Asia. The new 54,275 sqm facility, GM's first diesel engine plant in the region, is the first in  the world to produce an all-new family of Duramax four-cylinder diesel engines. The highly  flexible plant has the capability to manufacture about 120,000 engines per year for use in  vehicles built in Thailand and other global markets. (Malaysian Reserve)    

Shell Malaysia will expand the newly refurbished Westport Terminal with an additional  three new storage tanks and cargo pipelines to cater to growing demand for fuel and future  growth in the Klang Valley. Managing director of Shell Malaysia Trading and Shell Timur,  Azman Ismail said the expansion work, set to commence in November, illustrates the  company's confidence in Malaysia's growth potential for its downstream retail business.  "We expect the expansion work to be completed by the fourth quarter of next year". (BT)

Lion Group Bhd may consider moving its steel manufacturing operations to Indonesia as  it faces unfair competition from imported hot rolled coils. Chairman Tan Sri William Cheng  said the Malaysian government allows zero import duty on hot rolled coils from Indonesia  and Thailand but these countries impose import duties of 48% and 43% respectively on the  same product from Malaysia. (BT)  

TMC Life Sciences is making a cash call to raise some RM60m from existing  shareholders to pare down debts and finance its capital needs. TMC plans to undertake a  renounceable rights issue of 200.59m new shares at 30 sen each, together with 401.19m  free new detachable warrants to sweet the deal. (Financial Daily)  

Insas raised its equity stake in Formis Resources to 15.09m shares or 8.12% after the  former bought an additional three million shares last Thursday. The shares were acquired  by its subsidiary Insas Plaza via a direct business transaction. (Financial Daily)  

Mulpha Land has decided to postpone its proposed rights issue  due to the uncertain  market conditions at present. Mulpha is seeking a six-month extension to May 19, 2012 to  implement the proposed rights issue which would have involved a renounceable rights  issue of 456.6m rights shares with 273.96m free warrants. (Malaysian Reserve)

Citta, the newly constructed suburban mall in Ara Damansara, has been put up for sale  by the owners, sources say. "The vendor is already in talks with interested parties," a  source said.  The Citta Strip Mall – 70% owned by German real estate fund SEB Asset  Management and 30% by property developer Puncakdana Group - is said to be looking at  raking between RM700 psft and RM800 psft. This open air shopping mall has some  424,467 sq ft of nett lettable space which means that the mall may fetch as high as  RM340m. (BT)

20110913 1003 Global Market Related News.

Most Asian Stocks Rise as European Concerns Ease (Source: Bloomberg)
Most Asian stocks rose, with the benchmark regional index snapping two days of losses, as concern eased about Europe’s debt crisis following a report that China may invest in Italy. BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s No. 1 mining company, advanced 1.7 percent in Sydney, leading raw material producers higher, after the price of oil and copper rose. Inpex Corp., an energy explorer, advanced 1.2 percent in Tokyo. Westpac Banking Corp., Australia’s second-biggest lender by market value, increased 0.9 percent. Nintendo Co., the world’s largest maker of game players, slumped 2.5 percent on speculation it may sell fewer 3-D handheld players than it is targeting.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was little changed at 118.02 at 9:36 a.m. in Tokyo after dropping 3.3 percent in the past two days. More than two shares rose for each that fell on the 1,017- member measure. The gauge slumped 8.6 percent last month, the most since May 2010, amid concern global economic growth is slowing as Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis spreads and after Standard & Poor’s cut the U.S. credit rating.

Shares hit hard by Greek worries, G7 inaction
LONDON, Sept 12 (Reuters) - World shares fell close to 1.5 percent with European equities tumbling more than 2 percent as investors worried that Greece would default amid signs of disagreement among euro zone policymakers.
"This is clearly not good news for the market, it is bad news for the banks and the equity markets, it just keeps them under pressure," said Mike Lenhoff, chief strategist at wealth manager Brewin Dolphin.

U.S. Stocks Rise, Erasing Loss in Last Hour, on Report China May Buy Bonds (Source: Bloomberg)
U.S. stocks advanced, erasing earlier losses, as speculation that China may invest in Italy triggered a rally that lifted the Dow Jones Industrial Average more than 200 points in the last 45 minutes of trading. Nine out of 10 groups in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rallied, led by technology and financial shares. Bank of America Corp. (BAC), the biggest U.S. lender by assets, gained 1 percent on plans to eliminate 30,000 jobs in the next few years. NetLogic Microsystems Inc. (NETL) surged 51 percent after Broadcom Corp. (BRCM) agreed to buy the semiconductor company for $3.7 billion in cash. The S&P 500 advanced 0.7 percent to 1,162.27 at 4 p.m. in New York, after retreating 1.6 percent earlier. The Dow increased 68.99 points, or 0.6 percent, to 11,061.12.

Obama Gets Credit for Saving Auto Jobs in Michigan Where Voters Disapprove (Source: Bloomberg)
Wes Smith probably would have lost his family-owned company if it weren’t for one of President Barack Obama’s signature economic policies: the $82 billion bailout of General Motors Co. (GM) and Chrysler Group LLC. “I could be out of business,” Smith said. “Do I think about that often? Absolutely.” Instead, E&E Manufacturing Co., the Plymouth, Mich., auto- parts maker Smith’s father-in-law founded in 1962, is rebounding from the depths of the financial crisis. Annual sales of about $75 million are up about 50 percent from their nadir. The company has added about 70 jobs since employment bottomed at 280, down from a pre-crisis high of 480. E&E’s resurgence is part of a broader auto-industry comeback that analysts say vindicates the government’s activism in financing and arranging the 2009 GM and Chrysler bankruptcies.

Obama Proposes Limits on Breaks for Muni Bond Investors (Source: Bloomberg)
President Barack Obama proposed curbing the amount of interest from municipal bonds that top earners can exclude from their taxable income, a step that may diminish demand for state and local-government securities. The president’s $447 billion job-creation plan would pare the tax break for municipal-bond interest to 28 percent for couples earning more than $250,000 a year. Such tax-exempt interest is currently worth 35 percent for earners in the top tax bracket because that’s the amount they would otherwise have to pay on their income. Any move to limit the tax advantage for municipal securities would face resistance from local-government officials because it bolsters demand for their debt, driving down the interest rates they pay when borrowing for public works. Investors in the $2.9 trillion market for municipal bonds are willing to accept lower returns because the income isn’t taxed.

Business Economists Cut U.S. Growth Outlook Through ’12 as Confidence Dims (Source: Bloomberg)
The U.S. economy will grow less than previously estimated through 2012, reflecting a slump in confidence, limited consumer spending and a struggling housing market, a survey showed. Gross domestic product in the world’s largest economy will expand 1.7 percent this year, less than the May forecast of 2.8 percent, according to results of a survey by the National Association for Business Economics issued today in Washington. Growth in 2012 will average 2.3 percent after a previous projection of 3.2 percent. Some 54 percent of respondents lowered their growth forecasts because they said the legislation stemming from the debt-ceiling debate will fail to reduce the long-term budget deficit. Unemployment projected to stay above 8.5 percent until late next year and Europe’s debt crisis were also among panelists’ top concerns.

Fed’s Fisher: ‘High Bar’ for New Monetary Easing (Source: Bloomberg)
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Richard Fisher said he probably won’t support further monetary easing by the Fed, arguing that steps that would boost the recovery are the responsibility of fiscal authorities. “If I believe further accommodation or some jujitsu with the yield curve will do the trick and ignite sustainable aggregate demand, I will support it,” Fisher said today in a speech in Dallas. “But the bar for such action remains very high for me until the fiscal authorities do their job, just as we have done ours. And if they do, further monetary accommodation may not even be necessary.”
Fisher was one of three presidents to dissent from the Fed’s Aug. 9 statement that it expected to hold interest rates near-zero through mid-2013. At its next meeting on Sept. 20-21, the Fed may decide to replace short-term Treasury securities in its $1.65 trillion portfolio with long-term bonds in a bid to lower rates on everything from mortgages to car loans, according to economists at Wells Fargo & Co., T. Rowe Price Associates Inc., Barclay’s Capital Inc. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

Japanese Stocks Advance First Time in Three Days on Easing Europe Worry (Source: Bloomberg)
Japanese stocks gained for the first time in three days as reports China may invest in Italy eased concern that Europe’s debt crisis will worsen. Kyocera Corp. (6971), an electronic components maker that gets almost 20 percent of its revenue from Europe, gained 2 percent after European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said central bankers around the world are ready to support the financial system as the global economy slows. Inpex Corp. (1605), the nation’s No. 1 oil explorer by market value, rose 1.5 percent after crude prices rebounded. Suzuki Motor Corp. (7269) jumped 3 percent after the automaker said it’s seeking to dissolve its alliance with Volkswagen AG. The Nikkei 225 (NKY) Stock Average rose 0.4 percent to 8,566.32 as of 9:28 a.m. in Tokyo. The broader Topix gained 0.2 percent to 742.95, with almost twice as many shares advancing as falling.

Jun Azumi’s Yen Pledge Challenged by Disappearing Yield Gap: Japan Credit (Source: Bloomberg)
Finance Minister Jun Azumi’s pledge to take “bold actions” on the yen may be put to the test after a rally in overseas bonds reduced their yield advantage over Japanese debt. Yields on two-year U.S. securities fell to a 19-year low relative to similar-maturity Japanese notes, a gap that has a “relatively high” correlation with the dollar-yen rate, according to Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa. The spread between Japanese and German debt is the narrowest since at least 1990, as the euro plunged to the lowest level in a decade against the yen. Gains in Japanese bonds have been outpaced by those in the U.S. and Germany amid speculation Greece will default and the Federal Reserve will signal plans to buy longer-dated debt at a meeting starting Sept. 20. Investor demand for a refuge has intensified since last month, when Japan’s biggest currency intervention in seven years failed to stop the yen from gaining to a postwar record.

India Industrial Production Grows at Slowest Pace Since ’09, Missing Estimates (Source: Bloomberg)
India’s industrial production grew in July at the slowest pace in almost two years as consumer demand moderated after record interest-rate increases. The rupee fell to the lowest level in more than a year. Output at factories, utilities and mines rose 3.3 percent from a year earlier, following an 8.8 percent gain in June, the Central Statistical Office said in a statement in New Delhi today. The median of 26 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey was for a 6.2 percent advance. Reserve Bank of India Governor Duvvuri Subbarao has to weigh the risks to expansion posed by Europe’s debt crisis and a faltering U.S. recovery against inflation when he makes his next policy decision on Sept. 16. Asian central banks from South Korea to Malaysia kept borrowing costs unchanged last week as they assess the global economy.

Indonesia’s Stock Market Value to Lure Investors, Panin Says (Source: Bloomberg)
Indonesian stocks have become more attractive to overseas investors after the world’s fourth-most populous nation overtook Malaysia as Southeast Asia’s second- largest equities market by value, PT Panin Sekuritas said. “Foreign investments into Indonesian stocks will likely increase as portfolios are weighted in line with the size of a nation’s stock market,” Winston Sual, who helps manage $991 million at Jakarta-based Panin Sekuritas, said in a Sept. 9 interview. The firm’s $407 million Panin Dana Maksima fund has climbed 40 percent in the past year, beating 35 rival funds, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
The value of Indonesian equities surged 17 percent to $416 billion this year to Sept. 9, surpassing Malaysia’s $407 billion to become the ninth-biggest stock market in Asia. Singapore’s stock market is the biggest in Southeast Asia at $523 billion. The Jakarta Composite index (JCI) has risen 8 percent in 2011 through last week, compared with a 3.3 percent drop in the FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Index.

European Stocks Decline on Concern Greece May Default; French Banks Tumble (Source: Bloomberg)
European stocks slumped for a second day, dragging the benchmark regional gauge to its lowest level since July 2009, as speculation mounted that Germany is preparing for Greece to default. BNP Paribas (BNP) SA, Societe Generale SA and Credit Agricole SA (ACA) tumbled at least 11 percent after two people with knowledge of the matter said Moody’s Investors Service may cut the banks’ ratings because of their Greek holdings. AXA SA (CS) and ING Groep NV (INGA) lost more than 8 percent as insurers posted the second biggest losses among 19 industry groups on the Stoxx Europe 600 Index. The Stoxx 600 lost 2.5 percent to 218.93 at the 4:30 p.m. close in London. The gauge extended last week’s 3.7 percent slide, bringing its slump from this year’s peak on Feb. 17 to 25 percent, as economic data from the U.S. and Europe trailed forecasts and Standard & Poor’s downgraded America’s AAA sovereign-debt rating.

Draghi May Struggle to Deliver on ECB Stimulus as Stark Resigns Over Bonds (Source: Bloomberg)
Mario Draghi may find it harder to keep the European Central Bank in the vanguard of the battle against the euro region’s debt crisis after Juergen Stark resigned in protest at the bank’s bond purchases. With speculation of a Greek default heaping pressure on the ECB to step up its bond buying and reverse interest-rate increases to ease market tensions, Stark’s shock move has publicly exposed a rift among policy makers that may undermine its ability to act quickly, economists said. German opposition to further ECB stimulus may also make Draghi less inclined to ease policy when he takes over from ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet on Nov. 1, said Marco Valli, chief euro-area economist at UniCredit Group in Milan. “It would be very easy for Germans to say here comes the Italian, he’ll cut rates and buy government bonds in massive amounts,” Valli said. Draghi “will probably prefer to err on the side of hawkishness on standard measures, which means he may be reluctant to go for a rate cut.”

Euro Falls Toward June 2001 Low Versus Yen on Greece Concern, Rate Outlook (Source: Bloomberg)
The euro fell toward its lowest level since 2001 against the yen on speculation Greece is nearing default and before Italy sells bonds today amid concern the region’s debt crisis is deteriorating. The 17-nation currency declined against the dollar as traders wagered the European Central Bank will cut its benchmark interest rate over the next year, according to a Credit Suisse AG index. The New Zealand dollar dipped against 11 of its 16 most-traded peers after a report showed manufacturing volumes unexpectedly fell in the second quarter. The pound dropped for a fourth day after a measure of expectations for U.K. house prices slid in August. “The nerves around the whole euro system are just so frayed now that it’s difficult to see conditions improving all that much,” said Greg Gibbs, a currency strategist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc in Sydney. “The euro can easily fall significantly further before the year’s out because there’s still scope for policy easing by the ECB.”

Germany May Surrender in Fight to Save Greece (Source: Bloomberg)
Germany may be getting ready to give up on Greece, as measures in the credit markets signal growing concern about the smaller nation’s ability to repay investors. Yields on Greek two-year notes rose above 60 percent today for the first time. Five-year credit-default swaps to insure the country’s bonds and to speculate on government securities soared 937 basis points to an all-time high of 4,437, according to CMA. The contracts are the highest in the world and more than three times the 1,244 basis points for Portuguese debt. After almost two years of fighting to contain the region’s debt crisis and providing the biggest share of three European bailouts, German Chancellor Angela Merkel is laying the groundwork for what markets say is almost a sure thing: a Greek default.

Italy Seeks $10B as Contagion Slams Demand (Source: Bloomberg)
Italy is auctioning as much as 7 billion euros ($10 billion) of bonds one day after borrowing costs surged at a bill auction, as Greece’s slide toward default roils global markets. The treasury is selling 4 billion euros of a new benchmark five-year bond today, after 10-year yields climbed to a five- week high of 5.571 percent. Investors charged Italy 4.153 percent yesterday in a one-year bill offering, up from 2.959 percent a month ago. “It’s rather unfortunate that the Italian auction is taking place when the market is in a panic mode,” said Fabrizio Fiorini, the head of fixed income at Aletti Gestielle SGR SpA in Milan. “Borrowing costs are likely to remain at elevated levels. The rise in Italian yields is manifestation of a lack of market confidence in European leaders’ ability to tackle the problem.”

Italy Sells 11.5 Billion Euros of Bills as Crisis Causes Yields to Surge (Source: Bloomberg)
Italy sold 11.5 billion euros ($15.6 billion) of Treasury bills as demand waned and borrowing costs rose amid Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis. The Rome-based Treasury sold 7.5 billion euros of one-year bills at an average yield of 4.153 percent compared with 2.959 percent the last time securities of similar maturity were sold on Aug. 10. Demand was 1.53 times the amount on offer, compared with 1.94 times at the previous sale. The Treasury also sold 4 billion euros of 3-month bills. The yield was 1.907 percent, up from the 1.034 percent the last time such securities were sold on March 10. The bid-to-cover ratio was 1.86, compared with 2.42 at the previous sale.

Europe Stress Seen in Commercial Paper Rates (Source: Bloomberg)
Societe Generale SA, BNP Paribas SA and Credit Agricole SA (ACA) are being quoted higher rates than their competitors in the commercial paper market as the crisis in the euro zone spreads beyond Greece, Portugal and Italy. Investors charged the French companies an average 6.7 basis points more to borrow three-month commercial paper on Sept. 8 than the rate the lenders said they could pay in the London interbank offered rate market, according to two buyers who asked not to be identified because the talks are private. As recently as July, the banks received CP rates that were lower than Libor. Premiums on short-term loans are rising as odds of a default by Greece grows, with German Chancellor Angela Merkel preparing plans to aid her nation’s financial companies. BNP, Societe Generale and Credit Agricole, France’s largest banks by market value, may have their credit ratings cut by Moody’s Investors Service as soon as this week because of their Greek holdings, two people with knowledge of the matter said.

Inflation Bonds Show Growth Bigger Worry as Rates Point to 1.3% Global CPI (Source: Bloomberg)
Returns on inflation-linked bonds fell below those of government debt by the most in almost three years as the world economic slump makes it less likely that easy monetary policies will trigger spiraling consumer prices. Global sovereign debt gains are 1.3 percentage points higher since the end of July than on so-called linkers according to Bank of America Corp. indexes. The difference is the most since November 2008. The gap in yields for these bonds on Sept. 9 indicated investors anticipated an annual global inflation rate of 1.35 percent, down from 1.86 percent four months earlier. From Australia to the U.K. to the U.S. central bankers are cutting inflation estimates, giving officials scope to try to boost growth rates and employment. President Barack Obama presented a $447 billion package of tax cuts and spending to a joint session of Congress last week. The European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged Sept. 8, saying economic prospects had worsened.

Europe Banks Valued at Post-Lehman Lows Show Sovereign Risks Intensifying (Source: Bloomberg)
Investors are valuing European banks at levels not seen since the depths of the credit crunch that followed the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. as concern over a Greek default and debt contagion escalates. A Bloomberg index shows 46 lenders trading at 0.56 times book value, the cheapest since the post-Lehman lows of March 2009, signaling investors estimate their net assets are worth less than the companies claim and are demanding discounts for perceived risks. Valuations reflect the impact of a potential sovereign default for some banks, according to Barclays Capital analysts led by Jeremy Sigee.
Group of Seven finance chiefs meeting in Marseille, France, over the weekend vowed to support banks amid growing concern that the debt crisis is morphing into a banking crisis. As doubts linger about the ability of some European lenders to withstand a Greek default and its ripple effects, the cost of insuring their debt rose to records, while a measure of their reluctance to lend to each other climbed to a 2 1/2-year high.

Papandreou Unveils Property Taxes, State Wage Cuts to Avert Greek Default (Source: Bloomberg)
Prime Minister George Papandreou, vowing to avoid a default and keep Greece in the euro, approved new measures to help plug a yawning budget gap as resistance builds at home and in Europe to extending more aid to the European Union’s most-indebted nation. The Cabinet yesterday voted to cut one month’s wages from all elected officials and impose an annual charge on all property for two years, to be levied through electricity bills to ensure rapid collection, Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos told reporters in the northern Greek city of Thessaloniki. The measures will help the country meet deficit targets of 17.1 billion euros ($23.6 billion) in 2011 and 14.9 billion euros in 2012, covering a 2 billion-euro shortfall for this year that has been exacerbated by a deepening recession, he said.

Thailand Shouldn’t Use Rates for Climbing Commodity Costs, Kittiratt Says (Source: Bloomberg)
Thailand’s five-week old government signaled it wants the nation’s central bank to stop raising interest rates as Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra seeks to stoke growth in Southeast Asia’s second-biggest economy. “I did not agree with high interest rates to handle inflation if it’s not demand-pull inflation,” Deputy Prime Minister Kittiratt Na-Ranong said in an interview in Bangkok today. Yingluck’s administration has pledged to almost double the minimum wage in parts of the country and buy rice from farmers at above-market rates after winning the July 3 election with support from lower-income voters. The Bank of Thailand has boosted borrowing costs six times this year to damp inflation, raising rates by the most in Asia outside India. Kittiratt’s remarks signal a conflict with the central bank’s stance that may lead to a stalemate in policy making, with one side’s attempt to lift growth undermined by monetary tightening by an authority whose independence is protected by law.

20110913 1001 Global Commodities Related News.

Corn (Source: CME)
US corn futures finish higher as traders worry about shrinking supplies. UDSA cuts its harvest outlook for the second consecutive month, fueling fears another downgrade is likely in October. Traders are skeptical about reduced forecasts for exports and the amount of corn used to make ethanol. Margins for producers of the biofuel remain positive. "For now prices will have to stay high in order to trim consumption," says Darrel Good, agricultural economist at the University of Illinois. CBOT December corn rises 9c to $7.45 1/2 a bushel.

Wheat (Source: CME)
US wheat futures close lower as federal forecasters make an unexpectedly large increase to their estimate of global inventories. The USDA raised its outlook 3% from August due to increased output estimates for Canada, Europe and the former Soviet Union. But it did cut projections for US exports due to increased competition. CBOT December wheat loses 2 1/2c to $7.27 1/4 a bushel while KCBT December drops 6 1/2c to $8.26 and MGEX December slides 5 3/4c to $9.01 1/2.

Rice (Source: CME)
US rice futures reach their highest price in nearly two years as increased inventory estimates fail to end the market's recent rally. The market has attracted speculative and technical buyers as prices have climbed 30% since the beginning of July. Prices continued to advance even though the USDA raised its forecast for global inventories 0.7% from last month to 98.7M tons, the largest level since 2002-03. CBOT November rice closes up 0.2% at $18.37/hundredweight.

China, India corn demand to lead to record prices
JAKARTA, Sept 9 (Reuters) - Chinese and Indian corn demand will help push benchmark prices to record levels above $8 a bushel before the year-end, a leading U.S. analyst said late on Thursday.
Strong demand from developing Asian countries like China, the world's second largest corn consumer, coupled with the hottest summer in over half a century in top producer the United States, are both bullish for corn prices, John Baize, president at John C. Baize and Associates, told Reuters.

US wheat at 1-mth low, soy rises ahead of report
SINGAPORE, Sept 12 (Reuters) - U.S. wheat futures slid to a one-month low, falling for a fifth straight session amid broad weakness in global markets triggered by concerns over Europe's ability to tackle its worsening sovereign debt crisis.
"A strong report may see prices rebound, particularly given that drought conditions continue across the U.S. Great Plains, negatively impacting hard red winter wheat planting,"
Commonwealth Bank of Australia strategist Luke Mathews said in a report.

Heatwave to prompt US to cut corn, soy crop size
WASHINGTON, Sept 12 (Reuters) - The Agriculture Department is expected to cut its estimate of the U.S. corn and soybean crops on Monday due to a late-summer heatwave and analysts say further reductions are likely, which would bolster high market prices.
In a survey, traders said they expect USDA to forecast a corn crop of 12.519 billion bushels, down 3 percent from August, and soybeans of 3.032 billion bushels, down 1 percent, because of the hottest summer in half a century.

Dryness starting to hurt Argentine wheat -gov't
BUENOS AIRES, Sept 9 (Reuters) - Rains are needed in much of Argentina's wheat belt to safeguard 2011/12 crops, especially in parts of the top growing province Buenos Aires, the Agriculture Ministry said on Friday.
The South American nation, a leading global wheat exporter, has yet to forecast 2011/12 output, but the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) sees production dipping to 13.5 million tonnes from 15 million last season.

Ukraine harvests 272,000 T maize Sept.9 - AgMin
KIEV, Sept 9 (Reuters) - Ukraine, which plans to boost its maize harvest to 18-20 million tonnes this year, threshed 272,000 tonnes of the commodity as of September 9, the Agriculture Ministry said on Friday.
The ministry gave no data for the same date in 2010 but said the maize yields rose to 4.76 tonne per hectare this year against 3.81 tonne a year ago.

Benign crop weather seen for US Midwest next week
CHICAGO, Sept 9 (Reuters) - Rather uneventful crop weather is expected in the U.S. Midwest over the next week but an expected cold snap by mid-week bears watching, an agricultural meteorologist said on Friday.
"There probably won't be any significant damage to crops unless it turns colder than expected so it's something to be aware of," said Telvent DTN meteorologist Joel Burgio.

Russia harvests 71 mln T grain so far - AgMin
MOSCOW, Sept 9 (Reuters) - Russia harvested 71 million tonnes of grain by bunker weight by Sept. 8, up from 47 million tonnes a year ago and 67.6 million tonnes by the same date in 2009, Agriculture Ministry data showed on Friday.
Grain has been harvested from 29 million hectares, or 65.6 percent of the harvesting area of 44.1 million hectares, the data showed.

USDA Cuts Corn Production Forecast Again (Source: CME)
Federal forecasters cut their outlook for the size of the U.S. corn crop for the second straight month, yet expect surging prices to cool demand and prevent supplies from falling to an all-time low next year. The U.S. Department of Agriculture, in a monthly crop report released, said farmers will produce 12.497 billion bushels of corn, a 3.2% cut from last month's forecast. The harvest is still expected to be the third largest on record, but will fall short of expectations in the spring when farmers planted a huge crop in response to tight supplies and historically high prices. The production cut was expected after hot, dry weather this summer damaged the crop in states such as Illinois and Indiana. Yet the reduction in expected demand was surprising, with some analysts and traders dismissing it as a way to prevent concerns over shortages by next summer.
"It's easy enough to say we're going to have a reduction in consumption, but whether or not we do is a different story," said Sid Love, analyst for Kropf & Love Consulting, an agricultural advisory firm in Kansas. Corn prices closed higher at the Chicago Board of Trade as traders continued to worry the harvest that is getting underway won't keep up with demand for the world's largest corn crop. The USDA had a brighter outlook for the soybean crop. Forecasters surprised traders by raising its prediction for the upcoming crop to 3.085 billion bushels from 3.056 billion in August. The USDA also increased its outlook for domestic wheat supplies, bucking expectations for a slight cut in inventories.

Monsanto Expects 5%-10% Increase In Corn Seed Prices For 2012 (Source: CME)
Monsanto Co. expects to increase prices for its key corn seed brand by 5% to 10% in 2012, an executive said. The increase for its Dekalb brand of seeds reflects the growing value of the products, as St. Louis-based Monsanto introduces new technologies, said Brett Begemann, senior vice president and chief commercial officer. The company anticipates farmers will shift to new, higher-yielding seeds, Begemann told investors. Some of the increase is also due to higher production costs, he added. The price increase shows continued momentum with customers and helps the company meet its growth projections, Begemann said. The company declined to say how prices shifted from 2010 to 2011. Monsanto had cut prices for its new, premium SmartStax corn seed for 2011 following a farmer backlash over pricing. Begemann has said the company would look to raise prices again once the seed had demonstrated its value in the field.

India 2011-12 Soybean Output Likely To Top 10 Mln Tons - Ruchi Soya Executive (Source: CME)
India's soybean output in the next marketing year is likely to rise to more than 10 million tons because of good rainfall and higher acreage, an industry executive said Monday. Soybean output in the current marketing year ending Sept. 30 is estimated between 9.0 million and 9.5 million tons, Dinesh Shahra, managing director of edible oil refiner Ruchi Soya Industries Ltd. (500368.BY), told reporters. Soybean accounts for more than 60% of the country's total summer-sown oilseed output. Higher soybean output is likely to reduce edible oil imports by India, the world's largest buyer. Soybean plantings have progressed well, with the central state of Madhya Pradesh and the western state of Maharshtra receiving sufficient monsoon rains. India has received 3% more rainfall than the widely watched 50-year average in the current monsoon season that began June 1.
Separately, Shahra said soymeal exports are likely to rise only marginally in 2011-12 as increasing domestic consumption will prevent a sharp growth in exports, although global demand is strong due to lower Indian prices. Indian soymeal prices are currently $30-$40 per ton below global prices, Shahra said. Overseas demand for soymeal, which is mainly used as a cattle feed, is also high as there is a shortage of corn. India's soymeal exports in 2010-11 are expected at about 4 million tons, up from about 2.8 million tons last year, according to industry executives. The carryover stocks are likely to be lower at about 200,000 tons in 2011-12 due to higher soymeal exports, Shahra said, without specifying last year's carryover stocks. He also said the government needs to raise the import tax on refined edible oils to 15% from 7.5%, as cheaper imports are hurting India's domestic refiners, who have a total refining capacity of about 20 million tons.

Russia Harvests 71.5M Tons Grain To Sept 9 (Source: CME)
Russia harvested 71.5 million metric tons of grain to Sept. 1 on 29.2 million hectares, or 66.2% of the total area to be harvested, the agriculture ministry said. The average yield was 2.45 tons a hectare, compared with 1.97 tons a hectare a year ago. The harvest to date was 24 million tons more than on the same date in 2010 and 2.6 million tons more than on the same date in 2009. The government expects this year's harvest to be 90 million tons. Last year's harvest fell to 60.9 million tons from 97.1 million tons in 2009 due to severe drought.

Wheat, Barley Farmers Back Canadian Wheat Board Monopoly (Source: CME)
A majority of wheat farmers in Canada's western prairies supports continuing a monopoly over their crop, according to results of an nonbinding vote. But Canada's Agriculture Minister said his government intends to ignore the results and proceed with its plan to dismantle the agency in favor of more market-oriented approach. Sixty-two percent of wheat farmers voting backed the Canadian Wheat Board, which for 70 years has been the only seller of wheat and barley grown in the western provinces. Barley farmers also backed the board, but by a smaller margin, with 51% of respondents voting in favor of keeping the monopoly. More than 49,000 votes were cast in the plebiscite. Results of the vote commissioned by the board come as it fights for its future. Canada's Conservative Party captured a parliamentary majority this past spring and plans to pass legislation stripping the board of its monopoly power.
Gerry Ritz, Canada's Agriculture Minister, reiterated this point in a statement released shortly after the vote results were made public. "No expensive survey can trump the individual right of farmers to market their own grain," he said. "Our government is committed to giving western Canadian grain farmers the marketing freedom they want and deserve." Ritz has said he expects legislation eliminating the board's monopoly power to be introduced this fall, with passage possible by the end of the year. The left-leaning New Democratic Party is expected to challenge the legislation, with Pat Martin, a NDP legislator, saying the government has yet to produce any evidence that farmers would be better off without the board. "This is nothing more than an ideological crusade," Martin said.
Those who oppose the board's monopoly say farmers could capture better returns by having the freedom to market their own crops. However, supporters of the board say its control over western Canada's crop gives it considerable power in global commodity markets to ensure farmers there get the best prices. An end to the wheat board's monopoly is likely to ripple through agriculture in North America. Commodity exchanges anticipate that Canadian farmers will turn to futures markets if the wheat board goes away, and they and grain handlers already are jockeying for the expected new business. The change also would affect wheat prices, potentially making them more volatile. The board hired MNP LLP, a Canadian accounting firm, to conduct the vote.

Thailand Bets Big on Rice (Source: CME)
Thailand, the world's biggest rice exporter by volume, is placing a hefty bet that prices for the grain will spiral higher as demand increases. During an election campaign this year, Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra pledged to use government funds to buy unmilled rice from farmers at 15,000 baht, or about $500, a ton at the coming harvest -- nearly twice the market rate before Ms. Yingluck's landslide July 2 election win. Ms. Yingluck pitched the promise as a way to generate more income for Thai farmers and help push international prices higher in the process. Thailand provides about one-third of the rice that is traded internationally. Already, prices for Thailand's milled benchmark grade B white rice have risen more than a third since April to $640 a ton, a level not seen in 18 months. Some analysts expect prices to top $800 a ton if the Thai price-support program is put into full effect.
"Prices are rising in anticipation of the Thai policy kicking in, and there's already hoarding taking place," said Samarendu Mohanty, an economist with the International Rice Research Institute in Los Banos, the Philippines. Some analysts doubt prices will go much higher. Ammar Siamwalla at the Thailand Development Research Institute said Thailand may be overplaying its hand. He warns that it risks falling into a vicious cycle in which it forks out large amounts of cash to farmers to produce more and more rice, whose prices may not be sustained at their current levels.

Wheat in Chicago Gains 0.5% to $7.31, Climbing First Day in Six; Soy Rises (Source: Bloomberg)
Wheat for December delivery on the Chicago Board of Trade gained 0.5 percent to $7.31 a bushel, rising for the first day in six. December corn climbed 0.2 percent to $7.4725 a bushel and November-delivery soybeans advanced 0.3 percent to $13.9975 a bushel.

Thailand Willing to Give Up Role as Biggest Rice Exporter, Kittiratt Says (Source: Bloomberg)
Thailand is willing to relinquish its role as the world’s biggest rice exporter as the government prepares to buy grain directly from farmers to boost prices and rural incomes, Deputy Prime Minister Kittiratt Na-Ranong said. “We will not back off,” Kittiratt said in an interview yesterday. “If we cannot help our farmers, what is the point of being the government in this country? I’m not proud of being the largest exporter. I’m proud that Thai farmers can grow and sell their products at reasonable prices and they can smile.” Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra aims to insulate the country of 66 million people from a global slowdown by lifting incomes of poorer Thais who propelled her party to victory in a July election. The plan to guarantee rice prices may boost export rates by almost 20 percent and erode the nation’s share of the global market, said Sarunyu Jeamsinkul, deputy managing director at Asia Golden Rice Ltd., Thailand’s largest shipper.

ICE sugar, coffee dip on economic slowdown
LONDON, Sept 12 (Reuters) - ICE sugar and coffee futures fell as worries over the global economic slowdown and the worsening euro zone debt crisis weighed on the commodities
complex.  ICE raw sugar futures edged lower, unable to escape the growing concerns over future economic growth that weighed on global markets.

Pakistan monsoon rains destroy up to 2 mln cotton bales
ISLAMABAD, Sept 9 (Reuters) - Pakistan may have lost up to two million cotton bales, or about 13 percent of its estimated crop, due to heavy monsoon rains during harvesting in major producing region Sindh, government and industry officials said on Friday.
Officials now estimate between 13 and 13.5 million bales of 170 kg (378.8 lb) each in the 2011/12 financial year against an expected bumper harvest of 15 million bales for the world's fourth largest cotton producer.

China 2011/12 cotton output seen at 7.4 mln T-survey
BEIJING, Sept 9 (Reuters) - Chinese analysts expect the country's cotton output in 2011/12 crop year to be 7.4 million tonnes, 17.8 percent higher than their estimate for 2010/11, according to a survey of six analysts contacted by Reuters on Friday.
The median forecast is an increase of 1.12 million tonnes from the 2010/11 median estimate of 6.28 million tonnes by the same analysts, and higher than the U.S. Department of
Agriculture's August forecast of 7.19 million tonnes.

Standard Bank sees sugar output growth in Africa
JOHANNESBURG, Sept 9 (Reuters) - South Africa's Standard Bank  expects sugar production in Africa to grow, supported by increased demand and firmer prices, its head of investment banking said.
Africa's top bank by assets said it was experiencing an increased appetite for investment in sugar production and processing.

Indonesian miner ABM Investama plans $300 mln Oct IPO-regulator
JAKARTA, Sept 12 (Reuters) - Indonesian coal miner ABM Investama will sell 20 percent of its enlarged capital in an October initial public offering, a regulator said on Monday, seen raising up to $300 million in the fourth planned offering by a miner in Jakarta this year.
The Hamami family, which controls the miner, will not include its crown jewel Trakindo Utama, the sole authorised Indonesian dealer for heavy equipment maker Caterpillar , in the offering, cutting its appeal to investors, sources said.

U.S. coal use off 11 percent from previous week-Genscape
HOUSTON, Sept 9 (Reuters) - U.S. coal consumption was down 11 percent in the past week, Genscape said, as tropical weather knocked out power and lowered temperatures.
Use of coal for the week ended Thursday fell 5 percent from the same week in 2010, the power industry data monitor said.

Euro Coal-Prompt prices fall $3/T as buying halts
LONDON, Sept 9 (Reuters) - European prompt physical coal prices fell by around $3.00 a tonne on Friday as the limited utility and trade buying, which had been holding prices steady, vanished.
The European market remains oversupplied with most utilities holding more coal than they need for the next few months and the market's one, regular utility buyer was sidelined on Friday.

Oil Rises a Second Day on Forecast Supply Drop; Brent-WTI Spread Narrows (Source: Bloomberg)
Oil rose for a second day amid speculation crude stockpiles shrank last week in the U.S., the world’s biggest consumer of the commodity. Brent’s premium to New York futures narrowed to the lowest in three weeks. Prices advanced as much as 1.1 percent before an Energy Department report tomorrow that may show oil supplies fell for a second week. London-traded Brent’s premium closed at the lowest since Aug. 23 yesterday after the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said Libya will be able to restore most its oil output in six months. Crude for October delivery climbed as much as $1.02 to $89.21 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange and was at $89.02 at 9:22 a.m. Singapore time. The contract yesterday increased 95 cents to $88.19. Prices are 15 percent higher the past year.

Kazakhstan sees oil output at 102 mln T in 2016
ASTANA, Sept 12 (Reuters) - Kazakhstan, Central Asia's largest economy and oil producer, plans to boost oil output to 102 million tonnes in 2016 from this year's 81 million tonnes, the Economy Ministry said in its forecast published on Monday.
The country's Oil and Gas Ministry had earlier forecast output at 83 million tonnes in 2012-13, 85 million tonnes in 2014 and 95 million tonnes in 2015.

Saudis to supply full Oct crude to Asia
TOKYO/SINGAPORE, Sept 12 (Reuters) - Top oil exporter Saudi Arabia will supply full contracted volumes of crude oil in October to at least three major Asian term buyers, steady from September, industry sources said on Monday.
Demand for Middle East crude from buyers in northeast Asia has been robust over the past month as refiners stock up ahead of the northern hemisphere winter, keeping margins at profitable levels.

Oil production restarts in Libya - interim PM
TRIPOLI, Sept 11 (Reuters) - Libya has started producing oil again, the country's interim prime minister said on Sunday, promising that more of it would come online in the "near future".    
"We started producing oil yesterday," Mahmoud Jibril told a news conference in Tripoli. He declined to say where or how much. Libya holds Africa's largest crude oil reserves and sold about 85 percent of its exports to Europe before the uprising which toppled Muammar Gaddafi.

Gold Rebounds as Two-Day Slump Lures Investors Amid Economic Uncertainty (Source: Bloomberg)
Gold rebounded as a two-day slump made the precious metal attractive to investors looking to safeguard their wealth against financial turmoil and economic uncertainty. Gold for immediate delivery rose as much as 0.3 percent to $1,820.35 an ounce, and traded at $1,819.07 an ounce by 6:54 a.m. in Singapore. The metal, which reached a record $1,921.15 on Sept. 6, tumbled 2.9 percent in the past two days as investors sold the metal to cover losses in other markets. “While gold is exposed to a near-term consolidation after making fresh record highs recently, we recommend buying gold on dips as the ongoing debt/deficit crisis is likely to result in an extended period of super lax monetary conditions in the U.S. and Europe,” Societe Generale SA analysts led by Michael Haigh wrote in a report. “Gold is likely to make fresh all-time record highs before year-end.”

Australia enjoys another solid trade surplus in July
SYDNEY, Sept 12 (Reuters) - Australia boasted another solid trade surplus in July as a jump in gold exports offset supply bottlenecks for coal, while strength in imports of cars and heavy machinery pointed to resilient domestic demand.
The resource-rich country reported a surplus on goods and services of A$1.83 billion ($1.9 billion) in July, a shade above June's total. That brought the running 12-month total to a healthy A$21 billion, mostly thanks to sky high prices for key exports like coal and iron ore.

Baltic index firmer, capesizes at 9-month high
LONDON, Sept 9 (Reuters) - The Baltic Exchange's main sea freight index or BDI, which tracks rates to ship dry commodities, rose its highest in nearly nine months on Friday helped by firm coal and iron ore bookings with overall earnings seen staying volatile.    
The overall index rose 3.14 percent or 56 points to 1,838 points in a second day of gains after turning negative on Wednesday and was at its highest since Dec. 21. Prior to the drop, it had risen for five previous sessions. Last month the index had hit a near seven-month high.

20110913 1000 Soy Oil & Palm Oil Related News.

Soybeans (Source: CME)
US soybean futures slump to two-week lows, as investors reduced exposure after government forecasters unexpectedly raised production and supply estimates. Traders corrected prices, with investment funds trimming some long positions previously established on anticipation of a smaller crop forecast from USDA, analysts say. Larger global supply forecasts, sluggish US export demand and the negative influence of external financial markets amid fears of European debt issues helped pin prices lower. CBOT Nov soy dropped 30 3/4c or 2.2% at $13.96/bushel.

Soybean Meal/Oil (Source: CME)
Soy product futures tumble in unison with slide in soybean futures. Larger soybean supply forecasts, combined with larger soyoil and soymeal inventory estimates eased concerns about tighter supplies, encouraging traders to trim risk premium from the market, analysts say. CBOT Dec soyoil dropped 1.6% to 57.75 cents/pound, and Dec soymeal fell 2.5% to $365.80/short ton, a 3-week low.

Palm oil firms ahead of USDA report
JAKARTA, Sept 12 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures traded near one-month highs, supported by comparable vegetable oils, and investors positioned themselves ahead of key industry d ata from the United States.
"The market today is pretty firm," said a Kula Lumpur-based trader. "Everyone expected the market to be down but it's going up.

Brazil maintains 10/11 soy forecast at 75.3 mln T
SAO PAULO, Sept 9 (Reuters) - Brazil's 2010/2011 soy crop is expected to reach 75.3 million tonnes, government crop agency Conab said on Friday, in line with last month's forecast and on track to beat last season's record harvest.
Brazil, the world's second-largest producer and exporter of soy, brought in 68.7 million tonnes of soy last season.

China eyes nearly half of Q4 soy from South America
SINGAPORE, Sept 9 (Reuters) - China is expected to ship nearly half of its soy imports from Brazil and Argentina in the fourth quarter on competitive offers from South America, which is sitting on plentiful stocks after this year's bumper harvest, traders in Asia said.
The world's top soybean buyer is expected to take up to 7 million tonnes of soy from Brazil and Argentina in the October-December period from a total estimated import demand of 15 million tonnes, compared with around 5 million tonnes shipped a year ago, Singapore-based traders who supply directly to China said.

Indonesia's refined palm oil tax redraws landscape
KUALA LUMPUR, Sept 9 (Reuters) - Lower taxes on refined edible oil exports from top crude palm oil producer Indonesia are set to boost cooking oil supplies in the region, eroding margins for rival Malaysia and making cargoes cheaper for Asian buyers.
For decades, refined, bleached and deodorised (RBD) palm olein used in cooking oil enjoyed premiums of 5-10 percent over crude palm oil futures  as No.2 producer Malaysia was the sole supplier with tax free exports and massive processing capacity.