Wednesday, April 4, 2012

20120404 1817 FCPO EOD Daily Chart Study.

FCPO closed : 3557, changed : +24 points, volume : higher.
Bollinger band reading : pullback correction upside biased.
MACD Histogram : rising higher, buyer in control.
Support : 3550, 3500, 3470, 3450 level.
Resistance : 3620, 3650, 3700, 3720 level.
Comment :
FCPO closed recorded gain after hitting 13 month high with heavier volume transacted. Soy oil price currently edge up higher after overnight closed recorded loss while crude oil price still correcting lower.
Higher demand prospect and lower soybean crop remained the main factor pushing FCPO price higher.
Daily chart analysis remained calling a pullback correction upside biased market development.
When to buy : buy at support or weakness with larger cut loss and profit target.
When to sell : sell at resistant or strength with quick cut loss and profit target.

20120404 1734 FKLI EOD Daily Chart Study.

FKLI closed : 1591.5 changed : -11.5 points, volume : higher.
Bollinger band reading : pullback correction upside biased.
MACD Histogram : turned lower, buyer closing position.
Support : 1590, 1580, 1570, 1565 level.
Resistance : 1595, 1600, 1610, 1620 level.
Comment :
FKLI closed recorded loss with better volume traded doing about 8 points discount compare to cash market that also fall lower. Overnight U.S. markets closed recorded loss and today Asia markets ended mostly lower while European markets trading in negative zone.
Despite U.S. reported better factory orders data, global markets traded lower after Federal Reserve signals there is no need to provide further monetary stimulus as economy is improving. Markets also awaits ECB decision on interest rate announcement.
Technical chart reading adjusted to suggesting a pullback correction upside biased market development.
When to buy : buy at support or weakness with quick cut loss and profit target.
When to sell : sell at resistance or strength with quick cut loss and profit target.

20120404 1658 Regional Markets EOD Daily Chart Study.

 DJIA chart reading : correction range bound upside biased.
 Hang Seng chart reading : correction range bound little downside biased.
KLCI chart reading :  pullback correction upside biased.

20120404 1636 Global Market & Commodities Related News.

Strong U.S. job growth expected for March
WASHINGTON, April 3 (Reuters) - The U.S. economy likely notched up a fourth month of solid job growth in March, which would lower the need for the Federal Reserve to offer additional monetary stimulus to spur faster economic growth.
Businesses outside the farm sector are expected to have added 203,000 jobs last month, according to a Reuters survey, after nonfarm payrolls rose 227,000 in February.

Shares retreat as Fed minutes soften stimulus bias
TOKYO, April 4 (Reuters) - Asian shares fell after the minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve's March meeting suggested the bank was less inclined to take further stimulus measures, leaving investors looking for more clues to the global growth outlook.
"The minutes do not suggest any change in the Fed's broad policy stance, and the central bank still stands ready to take additional easing measures if economic conditions worsen," said Makoto Noji, senior strategist at SMBC Nikko Securities.


Australia trade deficit disappoints, more grist for rate mill
SYDNEY, April 4 (Reuters) - Australia's trade account unexpectedly remained in the red for a second straight month in February as bad weather hit coal shipments, a disappointing outcome that reinforces the case for a cut in interest rates next month.
The Australian dollar  slipped to a three-month low after Wednesday's data showed a deficit on goods and services of A$480 million ($494 million) in February, when analysts had hoped for a surplus of A$1.0 billion.


FOREX-Dollar firm; Aussie hit by surprise trade deficit
SINGAPORE, April 4 (Reuters) - The dollar hit a one-week high against a basket of currencies on Wednesday, getting a boost as the Australian dollar dropped to an 11-week low after Australia posted a surprise trade deficit.
The country recorded a A$480 million deficit in February compared to market expectations for a surplus of A$1.0 billion, adding fuel to expectations its central bank would cut interest rates in May.

Corn rises for 4th day on shrinking supply; wheat down
SINGAPORE, April 4 (Reuters) - U.S. old-crop corn rose for a fourth straight session as tightening global supplies continued to underpin the market, while soybeans lost more ground, easing from seven-month highs.
"Right now the situation is pretty much classified as consolidation after some of the strong gains we saw post USDA report," said Luke Mathews, commodities strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia in Sydney.

Australian wheat exports face slowdown after 9-yr peak in Feb
SYDNEY, April 4 (Reuters) - Australian wheat exports hit a nine-year high in February on the back of a record grains crop, data on Wednesday showed, but heavy rains are likely to have weighed on shipments in March.
Australia is the world's fourth largest wheat exporter and is enjoying a bumper 2011/2012 harvest after soaking rains boosted yields.
 
Brazil soy crop put at 65.2 mln T due drought
SAO PAULO, April 3 (Reuters) - Drought in Brazil shrunk the world's second-largest soybean crop to an estimated 65.2 million tonnes this 2011/12 season, down nearly 2 million tonnes from the March forecast of 67.1 million tonnes, local crop analysts Agroconsult said Tuesday.
That projection was one of the lowest among recent forecasts, and well below Brazil's record soy harvest of 75.3 million tonnes last season. Drought over Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay has supported soy futures  prices in Chicago since December.

Informa sees higher US corn, soy acreage than USDA
CHICAGO, April 3 (Reuters) - Informa Economics Chief Executive Officer Bruce Scherr said on Tuesday that the firm has raised its forecast of U.S. 2012 corn plantings to 96.4 million acres, from 95.5 million in its previous estimate released March 9.
Speaking at a conference in Chicago, Scherr also said Informa lowered its forecast of U.S. 2012 soybean plantings to 74.2 million acres, from 75.1 million previously.

Argentine soy crushing rises 11 pct in February
BUENOS AIRES, April 3 (Reuters) - Argentine soy crushing activity rose 11 percent in February from the same month last year to 2.3 million tonnes, the Agriculture Ministry said in its latest crushing report.
Argentina is the world's top supplier of soyoil and soymeal and crushing activity has increased in recent years due to investment in plants, most of them near the port city of Rosario.

W.Canada farmers bask in dry spring, aim to plant early
WINNIPEG, Manitoba, April 3 (Reuters) - After two years of heartbreaking spring floods, farmers on the fertile Canadian Prairies are tuning up their tractors to roll out one of the earliest planting starts in the past decade.
Last spring's floods left up to 6 million acres idle in Western Canada, but drier-than-usual conditions since summer mean farmers could start to sow crops by mid-April -- a couple of weeks ahead of the usual seeding start.

Prices key to Mexico sugar import decision-minister
WASHINGTON, April 3 (Reuters) - The Mexican government is closely watching domestic sugar prices and could allow sugar imports if prices do not fall closer to world levels, Mexico's economy minister said on Tuesday.
"We don't want our consumers to pay a higher price in Mexico," Mexican Economy Minister Bruno Ferrari told Reuters in an interview. "If we don't see the price going down as it is going down around the world, then we will import the sugar."


Euro Coal-Prices dip on mild weather, high stocks
LONDON, April 3 (Reuters) - European physical coal prices dipped slightly on Tuesday as mild weather sapped demand for energy in Europe.
Much of the region is continuing to see mild weather conditions, which means that energy demand is below the seasonal norm in most countries.

Russia coal export growth limited by rail problems
LONDON, April 3 (Reuters) - Russia's coal exports are likely to grow by less than a tenth to around 80 million tonnes at most this year largely because of rail bottlenecks, and the gain could be even less in a likely environment of disappointing prices.
The world's sixth-largest coal exporter after Indonesia, Australia, Colombia, South Africa and the United States may see its share of the export market shrink slightly if Asian growth boosts global demand, but not enough to fall in the ranking.

India to raise concerns with Indonesia over coal export tax plans
NEW DELHI, April 3 (Reuters) - India plans to raise concerns with Indonesia over Jakarta's plan to raise export taxes on coal and base metals, Coal Secretary Alok Perti said on Tuesday.
"The government will take this up with Indonesia," Perti told Reuters.

At least 10 pct supply penalty cost likely for Coal India-sources
NEW DELHI, April 3 (Reuters) - State-backed Coal India  may have to pay power companies between 10 and 40 percent of the average cost of 20 percent and more shortfall in supplies under new guaranteed fuel pacts the government is forcing it to sign, ministry sou r ces said.
The world's biggest coal miner, however, stands to gain equal levels of rewards even if it meets only 90 percent of its commitments under these pacts with power plants that are due to be commissioned by 2015 and generate 50,000 megawatts of power.

LME copper falls for 2nd day as US stimulus hopes wane

SINGAPORE, April 4 (Reuters) - London copper fell for a second day, pulling away from near two-month highs, as fading hopes for more stimulus measures from the U.S. Federal Reserve cut investors' appetite for risky assets.
"This is just a general readjustment of expectations and if the U.S. economic recovery happens to be more sustainable, prices of riskier assets would go up again," said Thomas Lam, economist at DMG & Partners Securities.

Indonesia eyes 25 pct mining export tax in 2012
JAKARTA, April 3 (Reuters) - Indonesia plans to impose a 25 percent export tax on coal and base metals this year, jumping to 50 percent in 2013, an industry ministry official said on Tuesday, as the major producer of raw materials looks to boost domestic investment and take a bigger slice of mining profits.
If imposed the tax would add to a raft of regulations announced this year that have caused confusion in Indonesia's mining sector and worried foreign investors.

India's NALCO says 2011/12 aluminium output down 6.98 pct
BHUBANESWAR, India, April 3 (Reuters) - India's National Aluminium Co Ltd (NALCO)  said on Tuesday aluminium production fell 6.98 per cent in the 2011/12 fiscal year dragged by higher raw material costs due to a coal shortage and weak overseas prices.
State-run NALCO, India's third-largest producer of aluminium, produced 413,000 tonnes of aluminium in the last fiscal year that ended on March 31, from 444,000 tonnes in 2010/11.

Italy steel exports up, imports down in Jan
MILAN, April 3 (Reuters) - Steel exports from Italy, the European Union's second-biggest producer after Germany, rose 10.9 percent to 1.387 million tonnes in January, while imports dropped 32.5 percent, according to data from industry body Federacciai.
Steel imports, about 57 percent of which came from other EU countries in January, fell to 1.063 million tonnes in the first month of 2012, data published on Federacciai's website showed.


Iron Ore-No buying rush seen when China reopens
SINGAPORE, April 4 (Reuters) - Chinese steel mills are unlikely to snap up iron ore cargoes in the spot market when China returns on Thursday after a three-day break, with a blurry demand outlook capping steel prices, traders said.
The physical market for the steel raw material has been extremely quiet this week with top importer China off since Monday for a public holiday.


Gold extends losses as US stimulus hopes fade
SINGAPORE, April 4 (Reuters) - Gold edged lower, extending a nearly 2 percent tumble in the previous session, as the minutes of the U.S. Federal Reserve's last policy meeting showed diminishing appetite for further monetary stimulus.
"Everything is linked through the phenomenon of massive cash supply from central banks," said a Singapore-based trader. "The minutes seem to support a view that the Fed is not going to pump more and more cash into the markets."

METALS-LME copper falls for 2nd day as US stimulus hopes wane
SINGAPORE, April 4 (Reuters) - London copper fell for a second day on Wednesday, pulling away from near two-month highs, as fading hopes for more stimulus measures from the U.S. Federal Reserve cut investors' appetite for risky assets.
A recovering U.S. economy prompted the Fed's softer stance towards another round of quantitative easing, also called QE3, but analysts say the decline in commodity and equity prices could be short-lived as investors shift their focus to a brighter outlook for the world's top economy.

PRECIOUS-Gold extends losses as US stimulus hopes fade
SINGAPORE, April 4 (Reuters) - Gold struggled to regain lost ground on Wednesday after tumbling nearly 2 percent in the previous session, as the minutes of the U.S. Federal Reserve's last policy meeting showed diminishing appetite for further monetary stimulus.
Expectations of another round of quantitative easing had boosted gold's appeal as a hedge against inflation and pushed prices to $1,790.30 in February, the highest level since last November.


Baltic index turns negative for 1st time since late Feb
April 3 (Reuters) - The Baltic Exchange's main sea freight index, which tracks rates to ship dry commodities,
turned negative on Tuesday after holding firm for 28 straight sessions, as falling rates for smaller vessels countered strength in capesizes.
The overall index, which gauges the cost of shipping commodities such as iron ore, cement, grain, coal and fertilizer, fell 3 points or 0.32 percent to 931 points.

20120404 1121 Global Market & Commodities Related News.

GLOBAL MARKETS-Shares retreat as Fed minutes soften stimulus bias
TOKYO, April 4 (Reuters) - Asian shares eased on Wednesday after the minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve's March meeting suggested the bank was less likely to take further stimulus measures, leaving investors looking for more clues over global growth outlook.
"We expect market focus to stay on global growth, as this holds the key to dissipating solvency concerns in developed markets," they said.

COMMODITIES-Markets down as dollar rallies on Fed minutes; gold off 2 pct
NEW YORK, April 3 (Reuters) - Gold tumbled on Tuesday and other commodities slipped too after the Federal Reserve released minutes of its March meeting which gave investors less hope that the central bank would soon embark on a new round of government bond buying, or quantitative easing.
"The Fed has distanced itself from QE3," James Steel, chief commodity analyst at HSBC, said, referring to the third round of quantitative easing widely anticipated in financial markets.

OIL-Oil slips on demand caution, Fed minutes
NEW YORK, April 3 (Reuters) - Oil fell on Tuesday as caution over lackluster demand growth and fading expectations for more monetary stimulus from the U.S. central bank countered concerns about potential supply disruptions.
"Essentially the market is continuing the pattern we saw last month, when it couldn't find a clear direction," said James Zhang, energy analyst at Standard Bank. "Few people are willing to aggressively short this market given the geopolitical risk."

NATURAL GAS-US natural gas futures end up for 2nd day
NEW YORK, April 3 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures ended higher on Tuesday for a second day as cooler extended weather forecasts and more technical buying after last week's sell-off propped up prices despite concerns about record-high supplies.
"The rally so far this week can only be categorized as minor and corrective, not a change in the underlying structure of the market which remains in a long-term downtrend," Energy Management Institute's Dominick Chirichella said.

EURO COAL-Prices dip on mild weather, high stocks
LONDON, April 3 (Reuters) - European physical coal prices dipped slightly on Tuesday as mild weather sapped demand for energy in Europe.
"The weather's nice and coal stocks are high, so there's very little reason to order physical coal cargoes at the moment," one coal trader said.

Japan insurers to cut Iran oil insurance coverage -Nikkei
TOKYO, April 4 (Reuters) - Major Japanese nonlife insurers are likely to slash their coverage for Iranian crude oil by more than 50 percent as EU sanctions are set to prohibit European insurers from providing reinsurance, the Nikkei business daily said on Wednesday.
Tokio Marine & Nichido Fire Insurance , Sompo Japan Insurance  and Mitsui Sumitomo Insurance  plan to curtail coverage for Iranian oil and petrochemical shipments by cancelling existing cargo insurance policies and signing new ones, the report said, without citing sources.

Saudi to maintain oil supply if U.S. draws stocks
DUBAI, April 3 (Reuters) - Saudi Arabia is likely to maintain high oil production in the event consumer countries release emergency stocks, but it will not seek to lure buyers for more oil by discounting its crude, industry sources said.
U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton on Saturday in Riyadh sought an assurance from Saudi King Abdullah that the kingdom would not neutralise a release of inventories by consuming countries by cutting its production.

20120404 1028 Malaysia Corporate Related News.

Used car sales have fallen as much as 40% for the first two months of the year, partially due to the new tight lending rules and sluggish consumer sentiment. The Federation of Motor and Credit Companies Association of Malaysia (FMCCAM) said on average its members saw a 20% drop in sales for used car ownership. "The tighter lending conditions as well as the economic uncertainty in Europe have led to the drop in sales volume in January and February this year," FMCCAM president Datuk Tony Khor said. Used car sales in the country, Khor said, is expected to hit about 600,000 this year, with an average of 150,000 units per quarter. (BT)

MAS: Scraps regional premium airline plan
Malaysia Airlines (MAS) has dropped plans to set up a regional premium airline. The airline's short haul business will instead remain as a division in the full service carriers' operations. MAS short haul COO and Firefly CEO Ignatius Ong said the objectives and goals of the short haul business remains, but it won't be its own airline. He declines to elaborate further on the matter. However, media reports indicated that the plan was abandoned due to strong resistance from the airline’s staff union.  (Business Times, Financial Daily)

Malaysia Resources Corporation: Open to selling EDL
Malaysian Resources Corporation (MRCB) is open to option for its Eastern Dispersal Link (EDL) in Johor Baru, including the sale of the highway. MRCB said the government could also consider charging a levy on foreign-registered vehicles going into Singapore using the highway. Originally, all vehicles, except motorcycles, using the Causeway were to pay toll on the EDL. The ED leads to the Customs, Immigration and Quarantine (CIQ) Complex and onwards to the Causeway that connects Johor Baru to Singapore. (Financial Daily)

Maxis: Unveils integrated solution for retail SMEs
Maxis had launched Built for SME-Retail, the first all-in-one integrated solution in Malaysia for retail small-and-medium enterprises (SMEs). The package comprises Biz Fibre with CCTV, Software-as-a-Service on Maxis Cloud and Maxis Business Community Call. Maxis joint COO Mark Dioguardi said the package offers SMEs a communications solution that is reliable, competitively priced and simple to set up, which will ultimately help to manage their costs and resources more effectively, increase productivity and grow  their business more efficiently. Senior vice president and head of enterprise business services, Fitri Abdullah, said Maxis is serious in their first step in digitising SMEs. He said the system will provide SMEs with business solutions where owners can monitor their accounts, stocks, sales and inventory via Maxis Cloud in real time. He added that owners can monitor all on-going activity at their premises using various handheld platforms while being away. He also said that through Maxis Business Community Call, employees and business-owners can interact with each other for free, either from a mobile to a mobile or from mobile to a fixed line, or vice versa. (Bernama)

Proton: DRB-Hicom conducts due diligence on Lotus
DRB-Hicom has hired two top-notch forensic teams to conduct a due diligence on Lotus Group International Ltd. Lotus, the British sportscar maker owned by Proton, has been a major strain to the national carmaker’s cashflow over the years. According to Business Times, separate teams from Ernst & Young (EY) and a unit from the influential Rothschild Group have been given the mandate to evaluate Lotus and its management team. It is understood that the forensic teams, which has been stationed at the Lotus’s Norwich office since late last month, will take at least 6 weeks to complete their tasks. (Business Times)

DRB-HICOM said it is always reviewing its investments in companies it has stakes in and may consider any proposal if it is in the company’s best interest. It told Bursa Malaysia this in response to a news report stating that it may be selling its stakes in Uni.Asia Life Assurance and Uni.Asia General Insurance. (BT)

Felda Global Ventures: Jun listing is on track
Felda Global Ventures Holdings has reiterated that it is on track for a listing on the Main Market of Bursa Malaysia by Jun. The listing exercise will be preceded by a windfall to reward Felda's first-generation 112,635 settlers, who first toiled the land in 1956. Felda Global president and CEO Datuk Sabri Ahmad said the windfall, which will be announced by Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak, will come from Felda's own coffers and not from the government. He said the windfall is to reward the very first-generation settlers who have been working hard for the past 40 years with no open roads, no schools and no electricity. (Business Times)

Felda Global Venture Holdings (FGVH) is keen to explore opportunities in Myanmar to develop plantations and related downstream business. FGVH president Datuk Sabri Ahmad said Felda's efforts in Myanmar could include providing technical training and planting assistance. He added that Felda had plans to expand its oil palm land bank as the potential for expansion domestically is limited. On its downstream business, Felda’s products have been actively sold in the country since late last year, with cooking oil constituting the bulk of sales. Felda is also looking at the potential for logistics and port management in Myanmar. (StarBiz)

Felda guarantees a total of 112,635 settlers will get a windfall following the listing of Felda Global Venture Holdings (FGVH) in June. Its deputy general manager (community development) Faizoull Ahmad said Felda was fair to all settlers although some rejected the listing of FGVH on Bursa Malaysia. He said Felda was aware some settlers rejected the listing because they were obsessed with the instigation of the opposition which wanted to foil the effort of the government for the future of the target group. "We will still distribute the reward, which is regarded as the biggest windfall in the history of Felda, fairly to all in two phases in May and July. (The Sun Daily)

MISC: MARC revises MISC Islamic debt programme outlook to negative
Malaysian Rating Corp (MARC) has affirmed its ratings on  MISC Bhd’s  RM2.5bn Islamic medium term notes (IMTN) and RM1bn Murabahah commercial papers/medium term notes (MCP/MTN) programmes at AAAID and MARC-1ID/AAAID respectively and revised the outlook to negative from stable. The rating action affects RM2.25bn of outstanding notes under the rated programmes. The outlook revision follows the company’s recent release of its unaudited results for the last  9 months of 2011, which indicated earnings pressure, declining interest coverage, increased debt leverage and persistent negative free cash flow. (StarBiz)

Sime Darby: Unit sued again by EMAS
Emirates International Energy Services (EMAS) has filed another suit against  Sime Darby Engineering Sdn Bhd (SDE) at the Judicial Department of Abu Dhabi similar to the amount in the first suit totalling US$178.2m (RM543.51m).  Sime Darby said the claim by EMAS was based on the same facts and grounds as the first suit which was filed in Jan last year and was dismissed by the court. The amount of US$178.2m comprised of a payment of US$128.2m and US$50m for commissions and moral compensation respectively. The court had fixed Apr 9 for case management. (StarBiz)

Sime Darby Bhd has completed the disposal of its fabrication yards in Teluk Ramunia and Pasir Gudang. In a filing to Bursa Malaysia yesterday, it disclosed that the disposal considerations for the assets were RM296m and RM393.4m respectively. (Bursa Malaysia)

SEGi: Navis has not decided on buying out SEGi
Navis Capital Partners, which has already announced its acquisition of a 28% stake in  SEG International Bhd (SEGi), has yet to decide if it will buy out the rest of the shares in the company. Nicholas Bloy, the managing partner of Navis Asia VI Management Company Ltd said said Navis liked the education sector, especially in emerging markets, because of the growth potential and the sticky customer profile. The Navis investment comes from the Navis Asia Fund VI, a US$1.2bn fund that had closed its fund raising in Sept 2010. (StarBiz)

Petra Energy: Inks MoU with Baker Hughes
Petra Energy has into a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Baker Hughes (M) Sdn Bhd (BHM) to undertake oil and gas projects in Malaysia. Petra Energy said the company and Baker Hughes would co-operate to provide capability development services including deploying their respective expertise and knowledge for oil and gas projects for operators in Malaysia within the duration of the MoU. Arising from the provision of the aforesaid cooperation, if and when a contract or contracts are secured, BHM shall assume one or more roles to be mutually agreed by the parties under a formal and final contract. The MoU shall remain in effect for one year from the date of MoU. (Financial Daily)

MKH: Unit gets contract worth total RM675m over 5 years
A wholly-owned unit of MKH has been awarded a turnkey construction contract (TCC) worth a total of RM675m over five years by Puncak Alam Resources (PAR) to build residential and commercial properties in Kuala Selangor. The company said on Tuesday that its unit Pelangi Seri Alam Development Sdn Bhd (formerly known as Fresh Partners Malaysia Sdn Bhd) had been awarded the TCC for the project on the land measuring about 550 acres in the Jeram and Ijok in the district of Kuala Selangor. The company said the contract value for the Project was approximately RM135m per year over 5 years, and that PAR would award the turnkey construction packages to Pelangi Seri Alam progressively based on the development phases. (Financial Daily)

DKSH Holdings (M) had inked an agreement with Indonesian-based company Kion Care (M) to sell and distribute the latter’s products in Malaysia. According to a statement, DKSH will support Kino Care’s brands of Eskulin, B&B Kids and Master Kids with the former’s sales, logistics and distribution services from Apr 2012. “We are proud that Kino Care has appointed DKSH as their exclusive market expansion services provider in Malaysia. In addition, this partnership will further strengthen DKSH’s leadership position in the personal care market,” said DKSH ED of business unit for consumer goods Lian Teng Hai. (Starbiz)

Sarawak Oil Palms: Diversifies into shipping
Sarawak Oil Palms (SOPB) is diversifying into the shipping business following a JV agreement with Shin Yang Shipping Corp. SOPB said the collaboration will allow the firm to participate in the edible oil shipment business, and at the same time, offer logistics support to the plantation entity. SOPB and Shin Yang have set up a JV firm where both firms will hold 45% and 55% respectively. Both firms have common shareholders, hence, the collaboration is a related-party transaction. (Financial Daily)

Ekuinas aims to be the biggest player with more acquisitions
Ekuiti Nasional (Ekuinas) plans to create one of Malaysia's largest education entities and is now eyeing a third education group just after completing its acquisition of a 90% stake in Cosmopoint SB for RM246m. Among the education groups that Ekuinas is eyeing are Masterskill Education Group (MEGB) and HELP International Corp. MEGB has some 11k students as of 2011 while HELP has 13k students. If Ekuinas were to acquire either one of these education groups, its student enrolment would increase to almost 30k from about 20k currently, making it the biggest listed education player. (StarBiz)

Greenyield: In JV with Kelantan government
Tigantara Plantations Sdn Bhd (TPSB), a wholly-owned subsidiary of Greenyield has signed a JV agreement with the Kelantan government. The company said the agreement is to set out the terms, conditions and provisions related to the right to use over the 400ha within Relai Permanent Forest Reserves in Gua Musang, Kelantan for 50 years. It said TPSB will pay a RM300,000 deposit or RM2,000 per hectare, whichever is higher and a premium payment of RM3,000 per hectare to the Kelantan government upon the release of the timber residues. (Financial Daily)

Xian Leng: MD resigns over accounting issue
The MD of Xian Leng Holdings, Ng Huan Tong resigned Tuesday amid accounting irregularities in the group’s books that could reach up to RM90.7m. He has also resigned from the company’s remuneration committee and as chairman of the employee share option scheme (Esos). Replacing him in both positions is Kuan Kai Seng, a 38-year old chartered accountant. According to an observer, the group’s board of directors has been trying to oust Ng as the MD since the accounting issue was discovered, but failed due to his majority ownership of Xian Leng. (Financial Daily)

Property: Transactions up 14.3% to 430,403 last year
Property market activities registered the highest increase in 5 years, recording a 14.3% increase in transactions to 430,403 and a 28.3% rise in value to RM137.8bn last year. Deputy Finance Minister 1 Datuk Donald Lim Siang Chai said the residential sub-sector spearheaded the overall property market, controlling 62.7% of total transactions and 44.9% of value. According to him, almost 50,000 units were launched in the market, of which 22,000 units were sold recording sales at 46.3%. Affordable housing costing below RM250,000 recorded the highest demand for properties making up 45% of new launches. In the commercial subsector, national occupancy rate for purpose-built office was more than 80% while take-up space remained positive at 250,000 sq metres. Overall, Lim said property prices were stable with increasing trend recorded in certain locations. The national house price index rose 6.6% to 156.9 points in the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2011. (Financial Daily)

Property: Government moves to avoid bubble
Malaysia is taking strict measures to avoid a US-style subprime mortgage lending crisis, after reporting an average 6.6% jump in home prices in 4Q 2011, an official says. Deputy Finance Minister Datuk Donald Lim said the government is worried about property prices causing a bubble, and we don't want banks to over-lend to the property sector. He said there are a lot of foreigners from Middle East and China keen to buy properties in Malaysia. According to data on Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM)'s website, housing loan applications jumped 46% in February from a  year earlier to RM14.96bn. BNM last tightened mortgage lending rules in Nov, limiting the loan-to-value ratio for people taking third mortgages to buy homes.(Business Times)

Timber: Sabah plantation timber production hits 1m cubic metre mark
Sabah Forestry director Datuk Sam Mannan said Tuesday that production of plantation timber in Sabah hit the 1m cubic metre mark last year with a total production of 1.2m cubic metres. He said total production from plantation timber had increased by 141% since 2001 with Acacia mangium showing the most significant increase at 231%, making it the major plantation species produced over the last 10 years. He also said that utilisation of rubber wood however remains small despite the extensive land clearing of old rubber plantations for replanting of new rubber trees. Meanwhile, log production from natural forests was approximately 2.6m cubic metres, higher than plantation timber, he said, adding the state's goal of making plantation timber the major source of raw materials for the timber industry can be achieved if the current trend continues. (Bernama)

Economy: RON97 is now RM2.90 a litre
The price of premium petrol RON97 has gone up by 10 sen. It’s now RM2.90 per litre. Petrol Dealers Association of Malaysia (PDAM) deputy president Datuk Zulkifli Abdul Mokti said the increase was due to soaring global fuel price that had hit US$120 per barrel (RM366). He added that the prices of RON95 and diesel would remain the same. (The Star)

Economy: Petronas to cut dividend to government
Petronas Malaysia’s state oil company, plans to lower its annual dividend paid to the government to RM28bn (US$9.2bn) this year as it holds onto cash to help reverse a production slump. Petronas which manages the nation’s energy reserves, is the biggest single contributor to government revenue, having paid RM30bn in dividends for each of the past three financial years. Shamsul, who took over as CEO in 2010, wants to retain more of the company’s profits to invest in exploration after seeing Malaysia’s oil and gas production fall for 3 straight years. Petronas plans to spend a record RM300bn over 5 years to replenish the country’s maturing reserves and counter mounting exploration costs. It has stepped up offshore drilling with local and overseas partners, including Petrofac Ltd, to boost the nation’s underground holdings of oil and gas. (Business Times)

20120404 1027 Global Economy Related News.

US: Fed signals no need to ease more unless growth falters
The Federal Reserve is holding off on increasing monetary accommodation unless the US economic expansion falters or prices rise at a rate slower than its 2% target. According to minutes of their Mar 13 meeting, a couple of members indicated that the initiation of additional stimulus could become necessary if the economy lost momentum or if inflation seemed likely to remain below 2%. That contrasts with the assessment at the FOMC’s Jan meeting in which some Fed officials saw current conditions warranting additional action before long. (Bloomberg)

US: Factory orders rose 1.3% in February on capital goods
Orders to US factories climbed in Feb for the third month in the last four, boosted by demand for business equipment. Figures from the Commerce Department showed that bookings rose 1.3% after a revised 1.1% decline in Jan. The median of 60 economists’ projections in a Bloomberg News survey called for a 1.5% advance. Orders excluding transportation equipment increased by the most in 5 months. Demand for new vehicles and business investment are sustaining production gains at American factories, which account for about 12% of the world’s largest economy. At the same time, slower growth in Europe and China show that sales overseas remain a risk. (Bloomberg)

US domestic auto sales moderated to 10.9m units in Mar (11.4m in Feb), falling short of consensus expectations of 11.3m. Total vehicle sales similarly fell 4.8% to a 14.4m rate in Mar (15.1m in Feb), worse than the consensus of 14.7m. (Bloomberg)

Minutes of the US Federal Reserve's latest policy meeting showed the bank's nervous agnosticism about the recovery, with policymakers reticent about declaring victory or launching new stimulus unless growth falters or prices rise slower than its 2% target. (Bloomberg, AFP)

UK: Construction growth accelerates to fastest in 21 months
UK construction expanded at the fastest pace in 21 months in Mar, adding to signs the economy returned to growth in the first quarter. Markit Economics Ltd. and the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply said in a report that the gauge of building activity rose to 56.7 from 54.3 in Feb. The median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of nine economists was 53.4. A reading above 50 indicates expansion. Markit said confidence at companies increased to a 22-month high. Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit said that the good weather appears to have led to a surge in demand for construction projects in Mar, adding to the recent flow of good news which suggests the economy will have skirted a recession. (Bloomberg)

Eurozone producer price inflation rose 0.6% mom in Feb (a revised 0.8% in Jan), above expectations for a 0.5% increase. On a yoy basis, the measure rose 3.6% (3.8% in Jan), higher than the 3.5% expected by economists. (Eurostat)

Asia Pacific: Syndicated loan volume drops 39% in 1Q 2012
Syndicated loan volume in Asia Pacific (excluding Japan) reached US$45.15bn via 157 deals in 1Q 2012, marking one of the lowest volumes and deal counts recorded for first quarters. According to a Thomson Reuters LPC report, Japan was the only market that seemed resilient to market woes -- its volume climbed to US$108bn in first quarter 2012 from US$83.53bn a year earlier. The report said Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) topped Asia Pacific (excluding Japan) Mandated Arranger League Table. Mizuho Corporate Bank led the Mandated Arranger League Table for Asia (excluding Australia and Japan), followed by OCBC Bank and Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ. (Bernama)

China: Economy grows 8.4% in estimate cited by NDRC official
China’s economy may have expanded about 8.4% in the first quarter, the least since the first half of 2009, according to an estimate given by an official 10 days before the data are due. Zhang Xiaoqiang, vice chairman of the National Development and Reform Commission, cited relevant China research institutes’ initial figures for the estimate and predicted a gain of about 3.5% in consumer prices. He spoke Tuesday during a panel discussion at the Boao Forum for Asia, a gathering of government and business leaders on China’s tropical island of Hainan. The growth figure compares with the 8.3% median estimate  of 28 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The fifth straight slowdown in quarterly growth will underscore concerns that weakness in the Chinese economy is set to limit a global expansion already capped by Europe’s austerity measures. (Bloomberg)

China: May allow more overseas investment overseas
China may loosen overseas investment rules for private investors, the country's central bank chief said on Tuesday, less than a week after the government gave the go-ahead for pilot financial reforms in a coastal city. China's State Council (or cabinet) last week said it would study allowing direct investments overseas by residents in the eastern Chinese city of Wenzhou as part of a general financial reform zone experiment. That was seen as a significant step toward liberalising capital account transactions. Speaking at the 2012 Boao Forum for Asia on China's southern Hainan island, People's Bank of China (PBoC) head Zhou Xiaochuan said China encouraged capital outflows, which would help reduce imbalances caused by net capital inflows. (Reuters)

China’s non-manufacturing PMI improved to 58 in Mar from 57.3 in Feb. (Bloomberg)

The China Securities Regulatory Commission increased the quotas for qualified foreign institutional investors to US$80bn from US$30bn, according to a statement on its website. Offshore investors will also be allowed to pump an extra Rmb50bn of local currency into the country, up from Rmb20bn. (Bloomberg)

Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said that China's state-controlled banks are a "monopoly" that must be broken via allowing “private capital to flow into the finance sector.” (WSJ)

Japan: Monetary base slides for first time since 2008
Japan’s liquidity supply dropped in Mar for the first time in more than 3 years, fueling politicians’ complaints that the central bank should be doing more to end deflation. Bank of Japan’s report showed that the monetary base fell 0.2 percent from a year  earlier after climbing 11.3 percent in the previous month, a Bank of Japan. The average amount outstanding was 112.46 trillion yen ($1.37 trillion). (Bloomberg)

Japan: Rejection of Bank of Japan nominee by LDP adds pressure to ease
Japan’s biggest opposition party said it will reject Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda’s central bank nominee as lawmakers press for a more aggressive monetary policy to spur growth and end deflation. Liberal Democratic Party officials agreed Tuesday to oppose BNP Paribas SA economist Ryutaro Kono joining the policy board, Fumio Kishida, head of the party’s Diet affairs committee, said in Tokyo. Lawmakers’ complaints, a rebounding yen and pessimism among large manufacturers may add pressure on the Bank of Japan to loosen monetary policy further this month. Governor Masaaki Shirakawa and his officials have pledged “powerful easing” until 1% inflation is in sight after increasing asset purchases by 10 trillion yen ($122bn) on Feb 14. (Bloomberg)

Japan: Auction demand at 4-month low signals yield gain
The lowest auction demand in four months for Japan’s 10-year debt foreshadows a gain in yields this fiscal year as the central bank’s monetary easing curbs demand for yen-based assets. The JPY2.1trn (USD26bn) sale of the securities was the first debt offering in the year started 1 April and drew bids valued at 2.73 times the amount on offer. That’s the lowest ratio since the auction on 1 Dec and below the average of 3.08 for the past 10 sales. Benchmark yields rose two basis points to 1.03%, the highest since 21 March. The bid-to-cover ratio for 10-year US debt has been over 3 at every sale this year. (Bloomberg)

Australia: Holds key rate at 4.25% as domestic growth weakens
Australia’s central bank signalled it may resume cutting interest rates as soon as next month if weaker-than-forecast growth slows inflation, sending the local currency and bond yields lower. “The board judged the pace of output growth to be somewhat lower than earlier estimated, but also thought it prudent to see forthcoming key data on prices to reassess its outlook for inflation, before considering a further step to ease monetary policy,” Governor Glenn Stevens said in a statement after leaving the overnight cash-rate target at 4.25%. (Bloomberg)

Indonesia plans to impose a 25% export tax on coal and base metals this year, jumping to 50% in 2013, an industry ministry official said, as the government looks to boost domestic investment and take a bigger slice of mining profits. (Reuters)

The Bank Indonesia's retail sales index was down to 11.3% yoy to 109.7 in Feb, and 5.7% mom lower than a revised 116.3 in Jan, due to fewer days in the month. Sales were mainly driven by household goods. (Reuters)

Indonesia’s Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS) said the month of Oct is the last chance for the government to raise the price of fuel oil (BBM) subsidy this year, as inflation is relatively stable due to the harvest season. (IFT)

Inflation in Thailand rose to 3.45% yoy in Mar (3.35% in Feb), outpacing analyst forecasts of 3.2%. Core CPI rose 2.77% yoy in Mar, slightly higher than the 2.72% growth posted in Feb. (Bloomberg)

Singapore’s PMI stood at 50.2 points in Mar, slightly below Feb’s 50.4 but still above the key 50-point level that shows an increase in activity. A separate PMI for the electronics sector rose to 51.5 in Mar from 51.0 in Feb due to further expansion in new orders from overseas and domestic markets. (Reuters)

20120404 1009 Global Market Related News.

Asian Stocks, Australian Dollar Drop on Fed; Won Falls (Source: Bloomberg)
Asian stocks fell for the first time in four days and the Australian dollar dropped after Federal Reserve minutes showed central bankers saw no need for more U.S. stimulus unless the economy weakened and the Australian services industry contracted. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index (MXAP) declined 0.4 percent as of 9:41 a.m. in Tokyo. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures lost 0.2 percent and South Korea’s Kospi Index retreated 0.3 percent. The Australian dollar weakened 0.2 percent and the won slid against all 16 major counterparts. Minutes released yesterday from the March 13 Fed policy meeting showed it was holding off on increasing monetary accommodation unless the economic expansion faltered or prices rose at a rate slower than its 2 percent target. Australia’s services industry shrank in March, the fifth contraction in the six months, as the sustained strength of the currency cut sales and curbed new orders, a private survey showed.
In the U.S. “it seems that policy easing is not being considered,” said Joseph Capurso, a currency strategist in Sydney at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, the nation’s largest bank. “The U.S. dollar is likely to keep rising, and the Aussie and the kiwi are likely to keep falling.”

Asian Stocks Drop as Fed Damps Expectations for Stimulus (Source: Bloomberg)
Asian stocks slid, snapping a three- day rally on the regional benchmark index, after the Federal Reserve damped expectations for more monetary stimulus. Newcrest Mining Ltd. (NCM), Australia’s third-largest miner, led resource companies lower after metal and oil prices fell. Toyota Motor Corp. (7203), Asia’s biggest carmaker by market value, rose 1 percent after the dollar gained against yen, boosting the earnings outlook for Japanese exporters. SK Telecom Co. slid 2.8 percent in Seoul after Posco sold its shares in the mobile-phone carrier at a discount. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.5 percent to 126.73 as of 9:35 a.m. in Tokyo after rising 0.2 percent yesterday. Markets in China and Hong Kong are closed today for a holiday.
“There were pretty divided opinions about whether there’s going to be additional easing,” said Matt Riordan, a portfolio manager who helps oversee about $6.9 billion in Sydney at Paradice Investment Management Pty. “I don’t think it was widely expected there would be additional easing coming. The market had a pretty good run and could be consolidating.”

Japanese Stock Futures Gain on U.S. Confidence, Spending (Source: Bloomberg)
Japanese stocks swung between gains and losses after the yen weakened, boosting the earnings outlook for exporters, while the Federal Reserve signaled it may not extend monetary stimulus. Toyota Motor Corp. (7203), a carmaker that gets more than 70 percent of its revenue overseas, rose 1.1 percent. Daikin Industries Ltd. gained 1.8 percent on a Nikkei newspaper report that the air-conditioner maker’s profit may rise. Izumiya Co. (8266), a supermarket operator, sank 2.5 percent after full-year net- income fell. “The yen is weakening below the rates that companies had assumed and that’s boosting expectations earnings will improve,” said Hiroichi Nishi, an equities manager in Tokyo at SMBC Nikko Securities Inc. “Investors are in a wait-and-see stance” before a report on U.S. jobs this week.

U.S. Stocks Fall as Fed Minutes Damp Stimulus Expectation (Source: Bloomberg)
U.S. stocks fell, a day after the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose to the highest level since 2008, as minutes from the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting damped expectations for more monetary stimulus. Companies whose earnings are most tied to economic swings led the retreat, with S&P 500 indexes tracking energy, financial and raw-materials stocks falling at least 0.7 percent. Transocean Ltd. and Newmont Mining Corp. (NEM) declined more than 2.8 percent as oil and gold prices slid. General Motors Co. sank 4.6 percent after posting vehicle sales that trailed estimates. Apple (AAPL) Inc. advanced 1.7 percent to a record after two analysts said the stock could surge to $1,000. The S&P 500 dropped 0.4 percent to 1,413.38 today. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 64.94 points, or 0.5 percent, to 13,199.55 after reaching the highest level since December 2007 yesterday. About 6.8 billion shares changed hands on U.S. exchanges, compared to the one-year average of 7.5 billion.
“Everybody would like a little more stimulus,” James Dunigan, who helps oversee $107 billion as chief investment officer in Philadelphia for PNC Wealth Management, said in a telephone interview. “It reiterates what the chairman’s been saying that they saw continuously moderate economic growth and they stand ready to do something but at the moment, there’s no immediate need to do any additional stimulus.”

S&P 500’s Rally May Last as Strategists Turn Sour (Source: Bloomberg)
Wall Street strategists cut their recommended holdings in U.S. equities to almost the lowest level since 1998, a sign that the six-month stock rally may have more room to go, according to Bank of America Corp. Strategists advised investors to reduce equity allocations in six out of the past eight months, with money earmarked to stocks falling to 55.8 percent in March. The level was the lowest since January 1998, except for the seven months ended July 2009, and compared with a 15-year average of 60.7 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg and Bank of America. Savita Subramanian, head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy at Bank of America, said the decline in recommended stock holdings signaled rising pessimism that she considers as a contrarian indicator because investors who have sold shares now have more money to purchase stocks.
“We take some comfort in Wall Street’s lack of optimism,” Subramanian wrote in a note yesterday. “It has historically been a bullish signal when Wall Street was extremely bearish.”

European Stocks Fall; Banks Lead Losses, Cairn Advances (Source: Bloomberg)
European (SXXP) stocks dropped, paring the benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 Index’s biggest two-day rally since February, as Spanish bond yields rose and U.S. factory orders rebounded less than economists had estimated. Banca Popolare di Milano Scarl (PMI) led a gauge of European (SXXP) banking shares lower. Ferrovial SA (FER) tumbled 6.4 percent as Spain’s government published its budget for 2012. Cairn Energy Plc gained 4 percent after agreeing to buy Agora Oil & Gas AS, which is owned by RIT Capital Partners Plc and Jacob Rothschild. Lonza Group AG (LONN) advanced 1.6 percent after it named Richard Ridinger as chief executive officer. The Stoxx 600 (SXXP)fell 1.1 percent to 264.29 at the close in London, extending losses in the final hour of trading. The benchmark measure jumped 1.5 percent yesterday, completing its biggest two-day advance in two months, as reports showed manufacturing expanded more than forecast in the U.S. and China.
The volume of shares changing hands in Stoxx 600-listed companies today was 3.4 percent lower than the average over the past 30 days, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. “We could see some sideways trading, or even a bit of position squaring, before markets head into Easter holidays,” said Alessandro Fezzi, a senior market analyst at LGT Capital Management AG in Pfaeffikon, Switzerland. “Though investors have become slightly more cautious, sentiment remains quite robust. Let’s not forget that the scenario for the world economy, especially Europe, is still far from being brilliant or sustainable.”

Dollar Near Week-High Versus Euro as Easing Bets Damped (Source: Bloomberg)
The dollar was 0.1 percent from a one-week high versus the euro as signs of improving U.S. employment support the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold off from increasing monetary accommodation. The U.S. currency rose against most of its 16 major peers ahead of a private report forecast to show gains in employment in March held near the most in two months. The euro was 0.9 percent from its lowest level in a week versus the yen before European Central Bank officials meet on policy amid signs of slowing growth. The Australian and New Zealand dollars fell as Asian shares opened lower. “U.S. monetary policy will stay status quo for the foreseeable future,” said Thomas Averill, managing director in Sydney at Rochford Capital, a currency and interest-rate risk- management company. “The U.S. dollar, particularly against the euro, is a bit of a buy at these levels in the short term.”
The dollar was at $1.3225 per euro at 10:14 a.m. in Tokyo from $1.3233 yesterday when it reached $1.3214, the strongest since March 26. It added 0.1 percent to 82.87 yen. Europe’s shared currency bought 109.60 yen after sliding as much as 0.6 percent to 108.70 yesterday, the lowest since March 23.

FOREX-Yen hits 3-wk high on stop-loss buying, short-covering
TOKYO, April 3 (Reuters) - The yen hit a three-week high on a flurry of stop-loss buying that kicked in after investors reduced massive short positions built in recent weeks, though the broad trend for a weakening Japanese currency remained intact.
"The yen has strengthened technically after this move, and while its long-term weakening trend remains intact we may see further correction on the dollar rally over the next few weeks," said Teppei Ino, a currency strategist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ in Tokyo.

Stocks, Treasuries, Gold Fall on Fed; Dollar Strengthens (Source: Bloomberg)
U.S. stocks slid, while Treasuries and gold tumbled and the dollar rallied, as Federal Reserve minutes showed central bankers saw no need for more monetary stimulus unless economic growth slows. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index lost 0.4 percent to close at 1,413.38 at 4 p.m. in New York, retreating from an almost four-year high. The Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 64.94 points to 13,199.55. Yields on 10-year Treasury notes surged 11 basis points to 2.30 percent after falling as much as three basis points. The Dollar Index, a gauge of the currency against six major peers, climbed 0.7 percent. Gold, silver and oil lost more than 1 percent to lead the S&P GSCI Index (SPGSCI) of commodities down 0.3 percent.
Minutes from the March 13 Fed policy meeting showed the Fed is holding off on increasing monetary accommodation unless the U.S. economic expansion falters or prices rise at a rate slower than its 2 percent target. The S&P 500 surged 1.4 percent on March 26, its second-biggest gain of the year, after Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said that stimulative monetary policy is still need to spur job growth. “Bernanke’s been clear that he stands ready to support the economy if needed and he’s certainly not in favor of removing the stimulus that we have, but there hasn’t been any indication from him that he’s planning to go another round,” Peter Jankovskis, who helps manage about $3 billion at Oakbrook Investments in Lisle, Illinois, said in a telephone interview.

Treasuries Yield Holds at Highest Since March 22 (Source: Bloomberg)
Treasury yields were at the highest level in almost two weeks before an industry report economists forecast will show service industries in the U.S. expanded in March, adding to signs the economic recovery is widening. Government securities slid yesterday after minutes from the Federal Reserve’s last meeting showed policy makers are holding off increasing monetary stimulus unless growth falters. The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing index was probably 56.8 from 57.3 in February, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of 68 economists. The figure would match January’s as the second-strongest level in a year. Readings greater than 50 indicate growth. “There is a risk that Treasury yields will rise because the economy is improving,” said Tsutomu Komiya, who helps oversee the equivalent of $111 billion as an investor in Tokyo at Daiwa Asset Management Co., a unit of Japan’s second-biggest brokerage. “It doesn’t require additional monetary easing.”
Ten-year notes yielded 2.30 percent as of 9:57 a.m. in Tokyo, according to Bloomberg Bond Trader prices. The 2 percent note due in February 2022 changed hands at 97 10/32. The yield matched the highest level reached yesterday, which was the most since March 22.

JPMorgan Dealmaker Hannam in Eye of Storm Again With FSA Fine (Source: Bloomberg)
Ian Hannam’s dealmaking has landed him the center of a storm before. This time the soldier-turned- JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) executive known for his Rolodex will be defending himself from outside the most profitable U.S. bank. Hannam, 56, JPMorgan’s global chairman of equity capital markets and a top adviser to mining companies such as Xstrata Plc (XTA), resigned yesterday after the U.K.’s market regulator fined him 450,000 pounds ($720,000) for disclosing inside information. He said in a statement he will appeal and plans to continue his financial career after the dispute is over.
His exit will deal at least a temporary blow to JPMorgan’s mining advisory business, which ranks second behind Morgan Stanley, bolstered by its close relationship with Zug, Switzerland-based Xstrata. Hannam, who became a focal point of an aborted deal to sell Dow Chemical Co. (DOW) in 2007, will be fighting to keep his reputation intact as the Financial Services Authority clamps down on market abuse after it was criticized for failing to prevent the U.K.’s worst financial crisis since World War II.

Fed Signals No Need for More Easing Unless Growth Falters (Source: Bloomberg)
The Federal Reserve is holding off on increasing monetary accommodation unless the U.S. economic expansion falters or prices rise at a rate slower than its 2 percent target. “A couple of members indicated that the initiation of additional stimulus could become necessary if the economy lost momentum or if inflation seemed likely to remain below” 2 percent, according to minutes of their March 13 meeting released today in Washington. That contrasts with the assessment at the FOMC’s January meeting in which some Fed officials saw current conditions warranting additional action “before long.” Stocks slumped while the dollar and Treasury yields rose. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index lost 0.4 percent to 1,413.31 as of 4:12 p.m. in New York, retreating from yesterday’s highest close since May 2008. Yields on 10-year Treasury notes increased 11 basis points to 2.3 percent. The Dollar Index, a gauge of the currency against six major peers, rallied 0.7 percent.
The March minutes show decreased urgency to add stimulus with no sentiment expressed for additional easing without a deterioration in economic conditions. The central bank also affirmed its plan, first announced in January, to hold interest rates near zero through late 2014 as the economy’s improvement may not be sufficient to lower the outlook for coming years.

American Men Dominate Job Gains Taking 88% of Spots: Economy (Source: Bloomberg)
It took David Jeffrey more than a year to get back on his feet after losing his job at Sallie Mae. As of February, he is witness to the factory rebound that has boosted confidence among American men. “If you’re not in manufacturing, jobs are hard to find,” said Jeffrey, 33, now a floor worker at a Panama City, Florida, plant for Arizona Chemical Ltd. (ARZ), a producer of biodegradable materials. “I have a lot of friends who are still out of work,” he said, thinking of some of the almost 700 people let go at the same time in late 2010 by the student-loan provider in the coastal resort town on Florida’s panhandle. Men, who lost more than twice as many jobs as women during the worst economic slump since the Great Depression, have landed 88 percent of the non-farm jobs created since the recession ended in June 2009. The share of men saying the economy was improving jumped to 41 percent in March, compared with 26 percent of women, according to the Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index’s monthly expectations gauge.
“The recovery is a mancovery,” said Heather Boushey, a senior economist at the Washington-based Center for American Progress. “I don’t see improvement for women in the past year, whereas for men this is the best year in years.”

Fed’s Lockhart Says Sustained Job Gains Reduce Need for Easing (Source: Bloomberg)
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Dennis Lockhart said the biggest U.S. employment gains in six years will probably be sustained, reducing the need for additional central bank easing. “I would have to see some pretty severe circumstances before I endorse for another round of quantitative easing,” Lockhart said today on Bloomberg Radio’s “Hays Advantage” with Kathleen Hays. “The outlook is positive enough that I am not sure I see the need for it.” The Federal Open Market Committee is holding off on increasing monetary accommodation unless the expansion falters or prices rise at a rate slower than its 2 percent target. Minutes of the March 13 meeting by policy makers show decreased urgency to add stimulus. At a January meeting, a few members said that economic conditions “could warrant the initiation of additional securities purchases before long.” In March, no sentiment was voiced for more easing without worsening economic conditions.
Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said last week that while a recent decline in the jobless rate is encouraging, continued accommodative policy will be needed to make further progress. The FOMC this year has said subdued inflation and economic slack will probably warrant exceptionally low rates through at least late 2014. Policy makers upgraded their economic outlook at the March meeting after improvements in the job market.

Fed’s Williams Says ‘Strong’ Stimulus Needed for Recovery (Source: Bloomberg)
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President John Williams said the central bank must continue to act “vigorously” to boost the economy and sustain labor market gains. “We are far below maximum employment and are likely to remain there for some time,” Williams said today in San Diego. “Under these circumstances, it’s essential that we keep strong monetary stimulus in place. The recovery has been sluggish.” The policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee on March 13 maintained its pledge to keep interest rates low through at least late 2014, noting improvements in employment while also saying “significant downside risks” remain. Still, policy makers saw no need to roll out new easing measures unless growth faltered, minutes of last month’s meeting showed today. Recent data signal a strengthening U.S. recovery, with an improving labor market encouraging consumers to spend more in the world’s largest economy. The unemployment rate has fallen to 8.3 percent, its lowest in three years.
“Unfortunately, the kind of moderate economic growth I expect won’t sustain such rapid progress” in the job market, Williams told students at the University of San Diego.

U.S. Factory Orders Rose 1.3% in February on Capital Goods (Source: Bloomberg)
Orders to U.S. factories climbed in February for the third month in the last four, boosted by demand for business equipment. Bookings rose 1.3 percent after a revised 1.1 percent decline in January, figures from the Commerce Department showed today in Washington. The median of 60 economists’ projections in a Bloomberg News survey called for a 1.5 percent advance. Orders excluding transportation equipment increased by the most in five months. Demand for new vehicles and business investment are sustaining production gains at American factories, which account for about 12 percent of the world’s largest economy. At the same time, slower growth in Europe and China show that sales overseas remain a risk.
“The manufacturing sector is the rock on which the recovery is being built and the base is as stable as it gets,” Joel Naroff, president of Naroff Economic Advisors Inc. in Holland, Pennsylvania, said before the report. “The economy has leaned on the manufacturing sector for much of the growth during the entire recovery. There appears to be no reason to believe that will change anytime soon.”

U.S. Economy Enters Sweet Spot as China Slows (Source: Bloomberg)
The U.S. once again may be emerging as a main engine for global growth -- and at an opportune time, as Europe slides into recession and China’s economy decelerates. An improving job market, rising stock prices and easier credit are combining to lift U.S. consumer confidence and spending, with optimism measured by the Bloomberg Comfort Index near a four-year high. Personal-consumption expenditures increased by the most in seven months in February, rising 0.8 percent, the Commerce Department said last week. “We’re entering a sweet spot for the economy,” said Allen Sinai, president of Decision Economics Inc. in New York. “We’re in a self-reinforcing cycle,” where faster employment growth leads to higher household income and increased consumer spending.
International companies, including Milan-based Gianni Versace SpA (GIAN), already are benefiting. Revenue for the Italian designer will rise at a “really strong double-digit” pace this year in the U.S., compared with “a significant single-digit” amount in Europe, according to Chief Executive Officer Gian Giacomo Ferraris.

Home Prices Seen Dropping 10% in U.S. on Foreclosures: Mortgages (Source: Bloomberg)
As many as 1.25 million of America’s least cared for homes are headed for auction after a year-long probe into foreclosure practices kept them off the market. Sales of repossessed properties probably will rise 25 percent this year from 1 million in 2011, according to Moody’s Analytics Inc. Prices for the homes could drop as much as 10 percent because they deteriorated as they were held in reserve during investigations by state officials resolved in February, according to RealtyTrac Inc. That month, 43 percent of foreclosures were delinquent for two or more years, from a 21 percent share in 2010, according to Lender Processing Services Inc. in Jacksonville, Florida. “The longer a foreclosed home is in the mill, the bigger the losses,” said Todd Sherer, who manages distressed mortgage investments for Dalton Investments LLC, a Los Angeles-based hedge fund that oversees $1.5 billion. “We have a bulge of these properties coming through the system.”
Homes stockpiled less than a year sell for about 35 percent below the value set by lenders, according to a March 15 report by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. At two years, the loss is close to 60 percent. A surge of cheap foreclosures may erode prices in the broader real estate market, even as the economy expands and residential building increases, said Karl Case, one of the creators of the S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index.

‘Apple Fever’ to Push Stock to $1,001 Within Year, Analyst Says (Source: Bloomberg)
Apple Inc. (AAPL), already the world’s most valuable company, will see its stock price reach $1,001 within 12 months, lifted by growth in China and the debut of a new television product, according to Topeka Capital Markets. The new target, issued today by Topeka’s Brian White, is the highest among the 45 analysts tracked by Bloomberg and represents a 62 percent increase over the current price. The gains will be fueled by demand for the next iPhone, in addition to the expansion into China and the TV market, he said. “Apple fever is spreading like a wildfire around the world,” White said in a report, which initiated coverage of the company with a buy recommendation. Apple will get to $1,001 by introducing a TV within a year, as well as an upgraded iPhone that works with speedier wireless networks, he said. China Mobile Ltd. (941), the Asian country’s largest wireless network, will start carrying the iPhone within a year, White said, adding millions of new potential customers.
Apple’s stock also is getting a boost because of a relatively seamless transition since the death of co-founder Steve Jobs, he said. The stock has risen more than 60 percent since he died in October. Tim Cook had assumed the role of chief executive officer from Jobs the previous August.

China Accelerates Markets Opening as QFII Quota Doubles (Source: Bloomberg)
China accelerated the opening of its capital markets by more than doubling the amount foreigners can invest in stocks, bonds and bank deposits as the government shifts its growth model to domestic consumption from exports. The China Securities Regulatory Commission increased the quotas for qualified foreign institutional investors to $80 billion from $30 billion, according to a statement on its website yesterday. Offshore investors will also be allowed to pump an extra 50 billion yuan ($7.95 billion) of local currency into the country, up from 20 billion yuan. China, the world’s second-biggest economy, has pledged this year to free up control of the yuan and liberalize interest rates as the government deepens reforms to revive growth and offset slowing exports and a cooling housing market. China needs to rely more on markets and the private sector as its export- oriented model isn’t sustainable, World Bank President Robert Zoellick said in February.
“More action on opening up their markets to outside investment is definitely a positive,” Jeff Papp, a senior analyst in Lisle, Illinois at Oberweis Asset Management Inc., which oversees about $700 million, said in a phone interview. “It’s not a huge amount. They’re taking a small-steps approach to see how markets will react with more participants.”

China Grows 8.4% in Estimate Cited by NDRC Vice Chairman (Source: Bloomberg)
China’s economy may have expanded about 8.4 percent in the first quarter, the least since the first half of 2009, according to an estimate given by an official 10 days before the data are due. Zhang Xiaoqiang, vice chairman of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRZ), cited “relevant China research institutes’ initial figures” for the estimate and predicted a gain of about 3.5 percent in consumer prices. He spoke today during a panel discussion at the Boao Forum for Asia, a gathering of government and business leaders on China’s tropical island of Hainan. The growth figure compares with the 8.3 percent median estimate of 28 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The fifth straight slowdown in quarterly growth will underscore concerns that weakness in the Chinese economy is set to limit a global expansion already capped by Europe’s austerity measures.
“The final number will be very close to 8.4 percent,” Lu Ting, chief Greater China economist at Bank of America Corp. in Hong Kong, said in an interview in Boao. “They can get a relatively accurate forecast or estimate of first-quarter GDP.” Premier Wen Jiabao pared this year’s expansion target to 7.5 percent from an 8 percent goal in place since 2005 on March 5, part of government plans to tilt growth toward consumption and away from exports. In the fourth quarter of last year, growth was 8.9 percent.

PBOC’s Zhou Urges Fed to Consider Global Effect of Policy Easing (Source: Bloomberg)
China’s central bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said the U.S. Federal Reserve has a responsibility to consider the global effects of its actions after emerging-market economies suffered from capital inflows. Because the U.S. dollar is the world’s main reserve currency, the Fed “may have more responsibility not only to consider the U.S. economy but also the global economy,” Zhou said today during a panel discussion at the Boao Forum for Asia on the southern Chinese island of Hainan. Zhou’s comments reprise criticism of the U.S. from emerging nations who complained that so-called quantitative easing was sending unwanted cash into their economies, adding to inflation risks. Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said last week the central bank will consider further stimulus, even after upgrading its economic outlook March 13.
For China and some other emerging economies, the policy goal is to “gradually bring inflation down” to help achieve a so-called soft landing, and China is using interest rates combined with additional tools to achieve that, Zhou said. He declined to comment when asked if the central bank is planning any adjustments to monetary policy. Expanding domestic demand and reducing the trade surplus have also been part of China’s strategic plan since the global financial crisis, Zhou said today.

Japan’s Monetary Base Slides for First Time Since 2008: Economy (Source: Bloomberg)
Japan’s liquidity supply dropped in March for the first time in more than three years, fueling politicians’ complaints that the central bank should be doing more to end deflation. The monetary base fell 0.2 percent from a year earlier after climbing 11.3 percent in the previous month, a Bank of Japan (8301) report showed today. The average amount outstanding was 112.46 trillion yen ($1.37 trillion). Opposition to the nomination of BNP Paribas SA economist Ryutaro Kono to the central bank’s board has highlighted some lawmakers’ concern that the BOJ isn’t doing enough to spur growth in the world’s third-biggest economy. Governor Masaaki Shirakawa and his officials have pledged “powerful easing” until 1 percent inflation is in sight. “This raises the question of how serious the BOJ is about monetary easing,” said Yasuhide Yajima, chief economist at NLI Research Institute Ltd. in Tokyo. “This may give a reason for politicians to put more pressure on the BOJ.”
The yen traded at 81.93 per dollar as of 3:13 p.m. after earlier touching 81.56, the highest since March 9.

Australia Holds Key Rate at 4.25% as Domestic Growth Weakens (Source: Bloomberg)
Australia’s central bank signaled today it may resume cutting interest rates as soon as next month if weaker-than-forecast growth slows inflation, sending the local currency and bond yields lower. “The board judged the pace of output growth to be somewhat lower than earlier estimated, but also thought it prudent to see forthcoming key data on prices to reassess its outlook for inflation, before considering a further step to ease monetary policy,” Governor Glenn Stevens said in a statement after leaving the overnight cash-rate target at 4.25 percent. The communique indicates the next rate reduction hinges on an April 24 report on first-quarter inflation, as recent data showed the economy is probably growing slower than the central bank had predicted. The Reserve Bank of Australia has decided against lower borrowing costs at its three meetings this year as the global recovery stabilizes and a mining boom sustains domestic growth.
“A clear easing bias was introduced,” said Annette Beacher, the Singapore-based head of Asia-Pacific research at TD Securities Inc., referring to the comment on inflation. “This statement could easily have supported a rate cut today.” A gauge of Australia’s annual inflation rate slowed in March below the central bank’s 2 percent to 3 percent target range as housing, clothing and footwear costs declined.

Thai Inflation Quickens First Time in Five Months on Oil (Source: Bloomberg)
Thai inflation accelerated for the first time in five months in March on rising oil prices, posing a risk to the nation’s recovery after last year’s flood crisis, and limiting the scope for further interest-rate cuts. An index of consumer prices climbed 3.45 percent from a year earlier, the Ministry of Commerce said in Nonthaburi province outside Bangkok today. That compared with a 3.35 percent increase reported for February. The median of seven estimates in a Bloomberg News survey was for a 3.2 percent pace. Retail fuel prices in Thailand have risen more than 20 percent since the start of the year on costlier crude and lower state subsidies, Energy Policy and Planning Office data show. Central bank Governor Prasarn Trairatvorakul, who kept interest rates unchanged last month after two previous cuts, has said inflation may accelerate later on oil and higher minimum wages.
“Despite higher oil prices, we think overall inflation will remain manageable,” Julia Goh, an economist at CIMB Investment Bank Bhd. in Kuala Lumpur, said before the release. Wage rises and strengthening demand may pose risks to inflation later this year, “but the probability of a rate hike remains low at this point,” she said, adding they expect the policy rate to stay at 3 percent until year-end.

England Challenges China by Reviving Strategic Mine: Commodities (Source: Bloomberg)
An English mine last used to make armaments to defeat Hitler’s forces will be revived to challenge China’s grip on tungsten, among strategic metals at the heart of a deepening trade dispute with Europe and the U.S. Wolf Minerals Ltd. (WLF) is developing a tungsten mine in Devon, southwest England, 70 years after it was last extracted there. The Hemerdon site is the world’s fourth-largest deposit and can produce about 3.5 percent of global demand for the metal, used to harden steel in ballistic missiles and in drill bits. China provides about 85 percent of worldwide supplies. Tungsten was one of the metals cited when U.S. President Barack Obama filed a complaint to the World Trade Organization on March 13 against Chinese supply curbs. Tungsten is a “critical” raw material, according to the European Union, and the British Geological Survey places it at the top of its supply-risk list of materials needed to maintain the U.K.’s economy and lifestyle.
“A big element of what we are doing is providing a strategic supply to companies outside of China,” Wolf Managing Director Humphrey Hale said in an interview in London. “We’re answering a requirement from the market, which is strategic supply, and prices are at a position where we can make money from that.”

U.K. Construction Growth Accelerates to Fastest in 21 Months (Source: Bloomberg)
U.K. construction expanded at the fastest pace in 21 months in March, adding to signs the economy returned to growth in the first quarter. A gauge of building activity rose to 56.7 from 54.3 in February, Markit Economics Ltd. and the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply said in a report today in London. The median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of nine economists was 53.4. A reading above 50 indicates expansion. Markit said confidence at companies increased to a 22-month high. The construction report follows a survey yesterday showing manufacturing grew at the fastest pace in 10 months in March. The British Chambers of Commerce said today Britain has probably avoided a second recession, though the government needs to do more to stoke a “weak” recovery.
“The good weather appears to have led to a surge in demand for construction projects in March, adding to the recent flow of good news which suggests the economy will have skirted a recession,” said Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit. “The particularly encouraging news is that the improvement in confidence is generating more jobs.”

Draghi Tested as German Pay Deals Add to Euro Divergence Threat (Source: Bloomberg)
Wage moderation in Germany may be coming to an end at precisely the wrong time for European Central Bank President Mario Draghi. As nations from Greece to Spain battle recessions and record unemployment, workers in Germany are winning some of the biggest pay increases in two decades, with public service staff set to gain 6.3 percent more by the end of next year. That’s widening the gaps between Europe’s largest economy and its euro- area peers, making the ECB’s one-size-fits-all monetary policy less effective. While the German wage deals are good news for workers, Draghi is unlikely to be popping the champagne corks,” said Carsten Brzeski, an economist at ING Group in Brussels. “ECB policy is inappropriate for each individual country in the euro area; it’s too loose for Germany and too restrictive for the periphery. It could end up making the divergences even bigger.”
Draghi is facing the possibility of price pressures building in Germany just as they wane in nations that have been pushed into austerity drives by the sovereign debt crisis. Only months after the ECB cut its benchmark interest rate to a record low and pumped more than 1 trillion euros ($1.3 trillion) of cheap cash into Europe’s banking system to stem the crisis, Draghi warned of “upside risks” to inflation and started talking about how to withdraw the emergency measures.

Suu Kyi Win Risks Myanmar Backlash Without Economic Gains (Source: Bloomberg)
Myanmar dissident Aung San Suu Kyi’s sweeping by-election win risks invigorating hardliners opposed to change if she fails to join reformers in implementing policies that boost incomes in one of Asia’s poorest countries. Suu Kyi yesterday called for a “new era” after her National League for Democracy rejoined the political system and claimed victory in 43 of 44 seats it contested in April 1 by- elections. It boycotted a 2010 election won by President Thein Sein’s army-backed party, which along with the military still controls more than 80 percent of parliamentary seats. The victory “will definitely scare a number of people who were expecting the government party would do better than this,” said Hans Vriens, managing partner of Vriens & Partners, a Singapore-based political risk firm. “I don’t think the army is in a position to roll back reforms now, but the reformers have to point to successes, which ultimately means jobs.”
Myanmar lawmakers are pushing to revamp the financial system and attract investment to revive an economy hindered by decades of military rule and sanctions from the U.S. and European Union. The central bank implemented a managed float of its currency yesterday to improve the business climate in the country of 64 million people that borders China and India.

Uruguay’s Credit Ratings Returned to Investment Grade by S&P (Source: Bloomberg)
Uruguay’s credit rating was raised one level by Standard & Poor’s, returning the Latin American country to investment grade for the first time in a decade. S&P lifted Uruguay’s rating to BBB-, the lowest investment grade and in line with Colombia. The outlook is stable. Fitch Ratings and Moody’s Investors Service rate the country one level below investment grade. “The upgrade is based on Uruguay’s sound economic growth prospects and improving external and fiscal indicators, as foreign direct investment strengthens and improves economic diversification,” Buenos Aires-based analyst Sebastian Briozzo said in a statement. “Prudent economic policies in recent years, backed by a broad political consensus, have allowed Uruguay to grow rapidly and reduce its main credit vulnerabilities.”
The country lost its investment grade rating in 2002 after neighboring Argentina defaulted on $95 billion of debt, sparking a run on bank deposits and a currency devaluation in Uruguay. S&P rates Argentina B, five levels below investment grade. Economy Minister Fernando Lorenzo said the investment grade rating “will allow the country to better manage our liabilities.”

20120404 1009 Global Commodities Related News.

India to cut position limits in some agri commodity futures
MUMBAI, April 2 (Reuters) - India's commodity market regulator plans to cut the number of contracts any member can hold in agricultural commodities in line with production estimates to curb excessive speculation, its head said on Monday, a week after banning guar futures trading.
"We have reports that production of some agricultural commodities have gone down or may go down this year. We are going to rationalise position limits (the number of contracts individual members can hold) accordingly," Ramesh Abhishek, chairman of the Forward Markets Commission (FMC), told Reuters.

Young US farmers coax crops from conservation lands
April 2 (Reuters) - North Dakota farmer Justin Zahradka will plant wheat this spring on 40 acres that has been off-limits for two decades, protected by a government conservation program that is shrinking as high crop prices make farmland more valuable.
The 18-year-old high school senior leased the land a year ago from a neighbor who opted not to re-enroll it in the federal Conservation Reserve Program, a scheme that pays farmers and landowners nearly $2 billion annually to leave land idle in order to protect wildlife and the environment.

Corn - Futures closed narrowly mixed following a choppy day of trade. May, July and December futures ended slightly higher, while most other contracts were slightly lower. Bull spreading was a featured activity in the corn market again today as old-crop futures continue to be supported by tight stocks. Funds bought an estimated 12,000 contracts (60 million bu.) of corn today. In the last three sessions, funds have bought 67,000 contracts (335 million bu.) of corn.  (Source: CME)

Corn Market Recap for 4/3/2012 (Source: CME)
Tue 03 Apr 2012 14:15:02 CT
May Corn finished up 3 1/4 at 658 1/4, 7 3/4 off the high and 6 1/4 up from the low. July Corn closed up 2 at 653. This was 5 1/4 up from the low and 6 3/4 off the high. The release of the Fed Reserves minutes from the policy meeting in March sparked aggressive long liquidation selling late in the session to give back a most of the early gains. Funds were noted buyers on the day but sellers late as the US dollar surged and gold and equity markets were hit hard. Talk of tight holding from producers and limited supply going into the late spring helped to support the market in spite of a weaker tone today for outside market forces. The tight cash situation with stronger basis levels noted helped to support nearby corn relative to other grain markets and supported a strong rally in May corn and bull spreads worked well. The Argentina Rosario grains exchange pegged the 2011/12 corn crop at 19.7 million tonnes, down slightly from their previous estimate and down from the March USDA estimate of 22 million tonnes. May Rice finished up 0.045 at 14.93, 0.07 off the high and 0.005 up from the low.

US corn seeding 3 pct done after warm March-USDA (Source: CME)
By Thomson Reuters - Tue 03 Apr 2012 09:50:23 CT
U.S. farmers had planted 3 percent of this year's corn crop by April 1, matching the fastest pace on record, as they took advantage of warm weather throughout March to start running their planters early, according to U.S. Agriculture Department data issued on Monday. The report came in below analysts' expectations of 5 percent but provided evidence that farmers do not intend to shift acres to soybeans even though soy prices rallied 5.4 percent in March as the market attempted to buy acres from corn.

Wheat - Chicago and Minneapolis wheat futures ended narrowly mixed, while Kansas City wheat was steady to slightly higher. Futures ended in the upper end of today's range at all three exchanges. Wheat futures were pressured throughout much of the session by the improvement in winter wheat crop conditions ratings from last fall. (Source: CME)

Wheat Market Recap Report (Source: CME)
Tue 03 Apr 2012 14:15:01 CT
May Wheat finished up 1 at 658, 1 off the high and 8 1/2 up from the low. July Wheat closed down 1/2 at 669. This was 10 up from the low and 1 off the high. May wheat managed to close slightly higher on the session after spending much of the day in negative territory. Key financial and metal markets reacted to the Fed Reserve minutes release and funds turned sellers in the other grains but wheat saw aggressive short-covering late in the day. Rain in the plains overnight and ideas that the crop may continue to improve helped to spark the early selling pressures. However, buying emerged near yesterday's lows to provide some support and the market managed to trade back up to just slightly lower on the day. Traders see some rain in the forecast for Europe and the fast start to the spring wheat plantings as negative forces as well. The first weekly Winter Wheat Conditions report of the year showed that 58% of the crop is rated good/excellent compared to 37% last year. The 10 year average for this time of year is 48%. The highest percent rated good/excellent was 71% in 2007. The spring crop is already 8% planted as compared to 1% last year. The 10 year average for this time of year is 2%. The previous high was 3% in 2007. Outside market forces added to the negative tone early in the session. Ethiopia bought 35,000 tonnes of wheat from Russia. May Oats closed up 1 1/4 at 336. This was 4 up from the low and 3 off the high.

US wheat falls for 2nd day, soy near 7-month top (Source: CME)
By Thomson Reuters - Tue 03 Apr 2012 09:49:07 CT
Chicago wheat slid 0.7 percent, falling for a second straight day as the improved condition of the U.S. winter crop boosted supply prospects, adding to the growing global stockpile.  "There is a little bit of weakness in wheat as crop conditions have emerged substantially better than when they went into dormancy last year," said Victor Thianpiriya, an agricultural commodity strategist at ANZ.

GRAINS-US wheat falls for 2nd day, soy near 7-month top
SINGAPORE, April 3 (Reuters) - Chicago wheat slid 0.7 percent, falling for a second straight day as the improved condition of the U.S. winter crop boosted supply prospects, adding to the growing global stockpile.
"There is a little bit of weakness in wheat as crop conditions have emerged substantially better than when they went into dormancy last year," said Victor Thianpiriya, an agricultural commodity strategist at ANZ.

US farmers to plant largest corn area in 75 years
April 2 (Reuters) - U.S. farmers in 2012 are expected to plant the largest area with corn since 1937, with mild weather enabling sowings to get off to a quick start this spring. The U.S. Department of Agriculture said 3 percent of the U.S. corn crop was seeded as of Sunday.  
Corn's higher profitability versus soybeans and rising cash rents for land also should promote corn seeding. Land that could not be planted last year due to flooding is expected to be seeded with corn, along with acres coming out of a conservation program.

US corn seeding 3 pct done after warm March-USDA
CHICAGO, April 2 (Reuters) - U.S. farmers had planted 3 percent of this year's corn crop by April 1, matching the fastest pace on record, as they took advantage of warm weather throughout March to start running their planters early, according to U.S. Agriculture Department data issued on Monday.
The report came in below analysts' expectations of 5 percent but provided evidence that farmers do not intend to shift acres to soybeans even though soy prices rallied 5.4 percent in March as the market attempted to buy acres from corn.

Kazakh grain exports 7.8 mln T since July 1
ASTANA, April 2 (Reuters) - Kazakhstan, a major wheat exporter, has so far exported 7.8 million tonnes of grain and flour in grain equivalent during the current marketing year, an Agriculture Ministry official said on Monday.
"If counted together with flour, a total of 7.8 million tonnes of grain has been exported to date in the current marketing year," Anna Buts, director of the ministry's land development and phytosanitary department, told reporters.

Indonesia's March Sumatra coffee bean exports slump
BANDAR LAMPUNG, Indonesia, April 3 (Reuters) - Robusta coffee bean exports from Indonesia's main growing area in Sumatra slumped 83 percent in March from a year earlier, government trade data showed on Tuesday, as weak prices and falling output prompted producers to hold on to sparse stocks.
Indonesia, the world's third-largest coffee producer after Brazil and Vietnam, shipped 5,069.67 tonnes of robusta in March, down from 29,392 tonnes in March last year, with farmers having sold stocks to bank high coffee prices in 2011.

Indian ministers' meet to discuss cotton exports postponed
MUMBAI, April 3 (Reuters) - A meeting of a panel of Indian ministers to discuss the issue of cotton exports has been postponed, government and trade sources said on Tuesday without elaborating.
Trade Secretary Rahul Khullar said last month India, the world's second-largest producer and exporter of the fibre, would discuss the export situation this week, having lifted a ban on shipments imposed on March 5, but having stopped registering new export orders. and

India's Oct-March sugar output up 13 pct-industry body
NEW DELHI, April 3 (Reuters) - India produced 23.2 million tonnes of sugar between Oct 1 and March. 31, up 13 percent from the year ago period, the Indian Sugar Mills Association, a producers' body, said on Tuesday.
It said output in the western state of Maharashtra was at 8.1 million tonnes, up 11.1 percent on a year ago while that from Uttar Pradesh state was at 6.6 million tonnes, up 12.7 percent.

Vietnam Coffee-Exports may drop in 2012
HANOI, April 3 (Reuters) - Coffee exports from Vietnam, the world's second-largest coffee producer after Brazil, are expected to fall 7.2 percent this year because of lower supplies, the Agriculture Ministry said on Tuesday.  
Vietnam's coffee shipments are forecast to drop to 1.15 million tonnes, or 19.17 million bags, from 1.25 million tonnes last year, but will still be higher than an earlier ministry forecast of 984,400 tonnes.

Honduran coffee exports jump 50 percent in March
TEGUCIGALPA, April 2 (Reuters) - Coffee exports from Honduras, Central America's top coffee producer, rose 50.3 percent in March from the same month a year earlier, the national coffee association Ihcafe said on Monday.
Honduras, which recently surpassed Guatemala as the region's biggest producer, has so far exported 2.58 million 60-kg bags of coffee in the 2011/12 harvesting season, a 24.2 percent jump from the previous cycle.

Ghana cocoa purchases up 3.5 pct so far - sources
ACCRA, April 2 (Reuters) - Cocoa purchases declared to Ghana's sector body Cocobod reached 717,171 tonnes by March 22 since the start of the 2011/2012 season last October, Cocobod sources said on Monday amid fears of a production shortfall.
The figures, which covered the first 23 weeks of the main crop, were up 3.5 percent the same period last year.

Analyst cuts Brazil cane, sugar forecasts
BRASILIA, March 31 (Reuters) - Brazilian sugar cane and ethanol analyst Archer Consulting cut its forecast for the country's 2012-13 sugar cane crop in the key center-south region on Saturday, lowering expected cane output to 512 million tonnes down from 521 million previously.
In an emailed market report, the consultancy trimmed its view for sugar output to 32.47 million tonnes down from the 32.56 million tonnes it had forecast in early March.

Cotton - Futures finished 21 to 87 points lower in the May through March 2013 contracts, which was anywhere from mid- to low-range for the day. Cotton futures were choppy today amid a lack of fresh news, bu late strengthening of the U.S. dollar index tipped the scales in bears' favor and produced the mildly lower close.  (Source: CME)

Arabica Premium Seen Higher on Robusta Supply Surge: Commodities (Source: Bloomberg)
The premium paid for arabica beans favored by Starbucks Corp. (SBUX) over the robusta used by Nestle SA (NESN) may rally from a 20-month low because of a surge in supply from Vietnam, the biggest grower of the less costly coffee. Arabica fell 18 percent in New York this year on prospects for a record Brazilian crop as robusta rose 13 percent in London because of fewer cargoes from Vietnam. The premium dropped to 83.89 cents a pound on March 29, the lowest since July 2010. It will widen to $1.162 by the end of the year, the average of 18 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg shows.
Farmers in Vietnam have been stockpiling robusta as a hedge against consumer prices that surged 23 percent in August, according to Macquarie Group Ltd. With inflation moderating to 14 percent in March and harvests about to start in Indonesia and Brazil, they may now accelerate sales, the bank predicts. Arabica is poised to rally 10 percent in the next three months, as drought in Brazil threatens the crop and demand from emerging markets strengthens, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. estimates. “People have focused on the shortage of robusta supplies, and that will change as the crops in Indonesia and Brazil come in and put pressure on the Vietnamese farmers to release their record crop,” said Keith Flury, an analyst at Rabobank in London. “The market is also seriously underestimating how tight the arabica supply-and-demand balance will be.”

Latest US monthly data no help for gasoline bulls
--Robert Campbell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own--
NEW YORK, April 2 (Reuters) - Bullish bets on RBOB gasoline futures hinge on supply tightening much faster than demand decreased but the latest U.S. monthly consumption data offer little support to that scenario.
The latest, more definitive, monthly U.S. oil data show no upside surprises in January.

Brent holds above $125 on U.S. data, North Sea supply delay
SINGAPORE, April 3(Reuters) - Brent crude was steady above $125 a barrel after sharp gains in the previous session, supported by fresh signs of a sustained recovery in top oil consumer the United States and the prospect of tighter crude supplies from the North Sea.
"The mood has changed a bit with the good PMI numbers from China and the U.S., although the risks in the euro zone remain," said Victor Say, an analyst with Informa Global Markets in Singapore.

Foreign investment in US energy will increase supplies-IHS
NEW YORK, April 2 (Reuters) - Foreign investment into new U.S. energy resources such as shale gas will accelerate from last year's record $75 billion, speeding a domestic boom in oil and gas production, IHS Herold, a unit of global consultancy IHS  said on Monday.
Cash-rich energy firms with interests in the Asia-Pacific region are looking to buy U.S. explorers in need of capital in hopes of exploiting a growing arbitrage between global liquefied natural gas markets and U.S. prices, the latter of which have tumbled to a 10-year low, according to IHS Herold's 2012 Global Upstream M&A Review.

Oil Trades Near Two-Day Low on Rising Stockpiles, Factory Orders (Source: Bloomberg)
Oil traded near a two-day low in New York as gains in stockpiles and a report that factory orders climbed less than expected in the U.S., the world’s biggest crude consumer, indicated demand may be easing. Futures were little changed after dropping for the first time in three days yesterday. Crude supplies climbed 7.8 million barrels last week, the most since Dec. 23, data from the American Petroleum Institute showed. A government report today may indicate inventories rose 2.5 million barrels, according to a Bloomberg News survey. Factory bookings increased 1.3 percent in February compared with a forecast for a 1.5 percent advance. Oil for May delivery was at $104.05 a barrel, up 4 cents, in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 9:34 a.m. Sydney time. The contract yesterday declined $1.22, or 1.2 percent, to $104.01, the lowest close since March 30. Prices are 5.3 percent higher this year.
Brent oil for May settlement fell 57 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $124.86 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange yesterday. The European benchmark contract’s premium to New York-traded West Texas Intermediate closed at $20.85, the most since Oct. 21.

Gold Slumps Most in Four Weeks After Fed Sees No Need for Easing (Source: Bloomberg)
Gold slumped the most in more than four weeks after minutes from the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting showed bankers may refrain from announcing further monetary stimulus unless economic growth slows. The central bank is holding off on increasing monetary accommodation unless the U.S. economic expansion falters or prices rise at a slower rate than its 2 percent target, according to minutes of the March 13 meeting released today. Gold has surged almost 90 percent since the end of 2008 as the Fed held borrowing costs at a record low and bought $2.3 trillion in housing and government debt. “The Fed clearly expressed reduced interest on asset purchases,” said William O’ Neill, an Upper Saddle River, New Jersey-based partner at Logic Advisors, a commodity consultant. “We saw a knee-jerk reaction in the market after the potential for any kind of monetary-easing lessened.”
Gold for immediate delivery slumped 2 percent to $1,643.93 an ounce at 3:24 p.m. in New York. A close at that level would be the biggest loss since Feb. 29.