Thursday, April 19, 2018

20180419 FCPO Technical View

FCPO Technical: 
Trading within downward channel. 
Higher low recorded between 17 Apr's low and 12 Mar's low suggesting downward momentum is diminishing. 
Ideally, price need to maintain above 2440 for further upside potential. 

Stock & Commodities Related News.

US STOCKS-Wall St eyes lower opening as chip stocks, Apple drop - Reuters News 
19-Apr-2018 09:06:58 PM 
Mizuho says weak iPhone demand could hit Q3 forecast, Apple down
Chip stocks hit by TSMC's weak outlook for industry
Futures down: Dow 0.09 pct, S&P 0.15 pct, Nasdaq 0.18 pct 
Adds comments, details, updates prices
By Sruthi Shankar
April 19 (Reuters) - Wall Street was on track to open lower on Thursday dragged by declines in chip stocks following a weak forecast from Taiwan Semiconductor, the world's largest contract chipmaker.
Apple shares were also off 1.7 percent in premarket trading. Brokerage Mizuho Securities USA said weak demand for iPhone 8 models could dent the company's third-quarter forecast.
Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC), which is also an Apple supplier, lowered its own full-year forecast due to softer demand for smartphones and cut its outlook for global semiconductor industry growth this year.
TSMC's shares fell about 5 percent, leading a host of chipmakers lower. Among them AMD and Nvidia fell more than 2 percent, while Intel was off 1.14 percent.
"We are in a digestion period where we are inundated with massive amounts of information. On balance, things look great, the (profit) growth rate is at mid 20 percent on S&P ... it certainly shows we're off to a good to start," said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley FBR in Boston.
Of the 52 companies among the S&P 500 that have reported first-quarter earnings through Wednesday, 78.8 percent topped profit expectations, according to Thomson Reuters data.
Overall profits at S&P 500 companies is expected to have increased 19.4 percent in the first quarter, the biggest in seven years.
American Express was up 3.4 percent after the credit card issuer topped Wall Street profit estimates and Alcoa rose 3.7 percent after the aluminum producer reported strong results and raised its full-year earnings forecast.
At 8:35 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were down 53 points, or 0.21 percent, and S&P 500 e-minis fell 6.75 points, or 0.25 percent. Nasdaq 100 e-minis dropped 19.25 points, or 0.28 percent.
Shares of some of the biggest consumer companies fell after results. Philip Morris was down 4.4 percent after its revenue missed estimates, while Procter & Gamble dropped 1.6 percent despite better-than-expected results.
Oil prices rose to their highest since late 2014 after sources told Reuters top exporter Saudi Arabia would be happy to see crude rise to $80 or even $100 a barrel and as U.S. crude inventories declined. 
(Reporting by Sruthi Shankar in Bengaluru; Editing by Shounak Dasgupta)

UPDATE 7-Oil climbs on Saudi price ambitions and U.S. stocks draw - Reuters News 
19-Apr-2018 09:20:33 PM 
Saudi Arabia seen seeking oil price of $80-$100 a barrel
Market expects renewed U.S. sanctions against Iran
U.S. commercial crude stocks decline towards five-year average
Some analysts see limits to bull market
Updates prices
By Shadia Nasralla
LONDON, April 19 (Reuters) - Oil prices kept rising to their highest since late 2014 as U.S. crude inventories declined, moving closer to five-year averages, and after sources told Reuters that top exporter Saudi Arabia aims to push prices even higher.
Brent crude futures reached $74.74 a barrel, the highest since Nov. 27, 2014 -- the day OPEC decided to pump as much as it could to defend market share, sending the price to a low of $27 just over a year later.
Brent futures came off slightly to $74.40 a barrel by 1316 GMT, still up 92 cents from the previous close.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were up 53 cents at $69.00. WTI had earlier hit $69.56, its highest since Nov. 28.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other major producers including Russia started to withhold output in 2017 to rein in oversupply that had depressed prices since 2014.
OPEC and its partners will meet in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, on April 20. OPEC will then meet on June 22 to review its oil production policy.
Reuters reported on Wednesday that top oil exporter Saudi Arabia would be happy for crude to reach $80 or even $100 a barrel, which was viewed as a sign that Riyadh will not seek changes to the supply pact. 
"The Saudis and their colleagues in OPEC need higher oil for their fiscal positions and the Kingdom is on a bold and costly reform programme. So they might continue to squeeze the lemon while they have the chance," said Greg McKenna, chief market strategist at futures brokerage AxiTrader.
Since the start of the supply cuts, crude inventories have declined gradually from record highs towards long-term average levels.
In the United States, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Wednesday that commercial crude stocks fell close to the five-year average of about 420 million barrels.
Also supporting prices is the possibility that the United States might reimpose sanctions on Iran, OPEC's third-largest producer, which could result in further supply reductions from the Middle East.
But some analysts saw limits to the bull market.
"We feel we are at the point where further price support is unlikely unless there is an (unexpected OPEC) supply cut," said Georgi Slavov, head of research at brokerage Marex Spectron.
PVM analysts also pointed to rising U.S. output and rig counts.
"Current oil prices are not justified by underlying oil fundamentals," they said. 
"This is not to say that the current $74-plus Brent price is not vindicated by other factors, but based purely on global supply and demand data, prices should not be this high."

(Additional reporting by Koustav Samanta and Henning Gloystein in Singapore, Nina Chestney in London; Editing by David Goodman and David Evans)

PRECIOUS-Gold breaks string of gains as global tensions ease - Reuters News 
19-Apr-2018 09:25:27 PM 
Silver hits 2-1/2 month high
Spot gold faces resistance at $1,356/oz -technicals
Higher base metal prices could boost inflation -analysts
(Adds comments on silver, updates prices)
By Eric Onstad
LONDON, April 19 (Reuters) - Gold prices dipped on Thursday, breaking a string of gains for four successive sessions, in response to a decline in global political tensions.
Spot gold was down 0.1 percent at $1,347.60 per ounce by 1240 GMT, while U.S. gold futures fell 0.2 percent to $1,350.80 per ounce.
"Uncertainty has decreased somewhat. Geopolitical worries, trade risk have moved to the background," said commodity strategist Georgette Boele at ABN AMRO in Amsterdam.
U.S. President Donald Trump said on Wednesday he hoped a summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un would be successful while Western missile strikes in Syria were less extensive than some had feared.
Earlier in the week, a senior administration official said Trump had delayed imposing additional sanctions on Russia.
Boele said she expected gold to decline to around $1,330 after failing to break above resistance.
"There was a bit of upward momentum, but you are still in the $1,300-$1,365 range. It's more of a technical trade at the moment - it tries the upside again and if that doesn't succeed then it falls back."
"Gold is hardly reacting at all to market participants' concerns about new sanctions against Russia and the associated uncertainties," Commerzbank said in a note.
Spot gold faces resistance at $1,356 per ounce, a break above which could lead to a gain to $1,365.23, Reuters technical analyst Wang Tao said.
Meanwhile, spot silver prices rose 0.7 percent to $17.27 per ounce after touching their highest since Feb. 1 at
"A bounce in silver is not a surprise to me because you have lower liquidity and it's more sensitive to sentiment," Boele said, who said she expected silver to follow gold lower in coming days or weeks.
Silver also is used for industrial purposes, so it has been lifted by a rally in base metals.
"The downside is relatively limited in silver because it was the one that was pushed too low. Also there are no positions to be squeezed."
Silver is the worst performing precious metal over the past six months, little changed versus a rise of 4.5 percent for gold and 7.7 percent for palladium.
Platinum climbed 0.6 percent to $941.50 per ounce. It touched more than a three-week high of $953.50 earlier in the day.
Palladium fell 0.3 percent to $1,031.50 per ounce, after marking its highest since Feb. 27 at $1,057.20.

(Additional reporting by Eileen Soreng in Bengaluru; Editing by Jon Boyle and Jane Merriman) 

CBOT Trends-Wheat up 1-2 cents, corn and soybeans steady-down 1 - Reuters News 
19-Apr-2018 09:26:31 PM 
CHICAGO, April 19 (Reuters) - Following are U.S. trade expectations for the resumption of grain and soy complex trading at the Chicago Board of Trade at 8:30 a.m. CDT (1330 GMT) on Thursday.
NOTE: Friday is the last trading day for CBOT May options.
WHEAT - Up 1 to 2 cents per bushel
Heading higher for a third straight session on uncertainty about the extent of much-needed rain expected this week in the southern U.S. Plains winter wheat belt.
The USDA reported export sales of U.S. wheat in the week to April 12 at 173,500 tonnes (old and new crop years combined), in line with trade expectations for 100,000 to 550,000 tonnes. 
CBOT May soft red winter wheat last traded up 2 cents at $4.77-1/4 per bushel. K.C. May hard red winter wheat was last up 5-1/4 cents at $4.94 and MGEX May spring wheat was last unchanged at $6.18.
CORN - Steady to down 1 cent per bushel
Corn flat to weaker in featureless trade. CBOT May corn futures stayed inside of Wednesday's trading range overnight.
The USDA reported export sales of U.S. corn in the week to April 12 at 1,203,900 tonnes (old and new crop years combined), in line with trade expectations for 700,000 to 1,400,000 tonnes.
CBOT May corn last traded down 1/4 cent at $3.82-3/4 a bushel.
SOYBEANS - Steady to down 1 cent per bushel
Soybeans steady to weaker on technical selling, with the May contract staying inside of Wednesday's trading range, despite strong weekly export sales.
The USDA reported export sales of U.S. soybeans in the week to April 12 at 2,131,500 tonnes (old and new crop years combined), at the high end of trade expectations for 1.4 million to 2.2 million tonnes. 
CBOT May soybeans last traded down 3/4 cent at $10.41 per bushel.
(Reporting by Julie Ingwersen)

FOREX-Euro stumbles at $1.24 level as yield rise supports dollar - Reuters News 
19-Apr-2018 07:50:16 PM 
Euro briefly touches $1.24; rising U.S. yields help dollar
Swiss franc close to 1.20 level vs euro
Turkish lira eases after Wednesday's jump
By Tommy Wilkes
LONDON, April 19 (Reuters) - The euro briefly flirted with $1.24 on Thursday but a rise in long-term U.S. bond yields supported the dollar and pushed the single currency further back into its recent trading range.
Given the scale of gains in the 10-year Treasury note yield, which climbed more than 5 basis points overnight for its biggest one-day surge since March 2, the dollar's strength was limited.
The modest moves underlined investor caution and that a rally in the euro, which gained at the start of this year, has run out of steam. Investors are growing nervous that the euro zone economy's rebound is nearing the top and the European Central Bank may move more slowly to tighten monetary policy. 
Broad uncertainty stemming from U.S. President Donald Trump's trade and economic policies, as well as geopolitical events in the Middle East and elsewhere has meanwhile weighed on the dollar.
"There is no real impulse from monetary policy. There is a little bit of fatigue with the trade war issue and the global economic cycle is losing momentum, especially in the euro zone whereas the U.S. is holding up," said Christin Tuxen, an FX strategist at Danske Bank.
The euro fell 0.1 percent to $1.2365 after earlier hitting $1.24. The dollar index, measuring the U.S. currency against a basket of currencies, traded flat at 89.644.
Tuxen remains bullish on the euro, seeing the single currency rise towards $1.30 in 12 months but said in the short-term the euro could fall as the ECB, which meets next week, takes more time in raising rates. 
With the U.S. Federal Reserve tightening, diverging interest rate views have driven the spread between U.S. and German 10-year government bond yields above 230 basis points, the highest since late December 2016.
The euro had weakened to a 14-year low the last time the yield spread was at the current width. But it has been relatively immune to the current yield spread widening. The spread has increased more than 30 basis points over the past three months, but the common currency has moved within a relatively narrow $1.2556-$1.2154 range.
"While we have been arguing that the dollar will take its cue from the U.S. economic cycle – irrespective of what the Fed does – we do believe that the outlook for global asset prices in general now rests on what U.S. monetary officials choose to do next," ING analysts said. 
The Swiss franc fell to within a whisker of the 1.20 per euro mark it last hit in January 2015 - before the Swiss National Bank removed its currency peg and the franc shot up.
Expectations the SNB will refrain from reining in its balance sheet even when the ECB acts has pushed the franc lower. The franc touched 1.9999 francs per euro earlier on Thursday before recovering to 1.1977. 
Turkey's lira, one of the worst performing currencies in recent months, fell after rallying more than 2 percent against the dollar overnight after President Tayyip Erdogan called early elections for in June, more than a year earlier than planned.
Erdogan's early election call was seen by some market players as recognition of the need for tighter monetary policy to combat inflation.
The lira fell 0.5 percent at 4.0285 against the dollar. Wednesday's surge moved it significantly away from a record low of 4.194 set last week.
A rally in commodity prices, including large moves in oil and iron ore, helped the Australian dollar rise even after disappointing jobs data. The Aussie dollar was up 0.1 percent at $0.7793, having recovered from a low of $0.7765.
(Reporting by Tommy Wilkes
Additional reporting by Shinichi Saoshiro; Editing by Hugh Lawson and Jon Boyle)