Friday, August 10, 2012

20120810 1811 FCPO EOD Daily Chart Study.

FCPO closed : 2882, changed : +17 points, volume : higher.
Bollinger band reading : pullback correction downside biased.
MACD Histogram : turned upward, buyer seller battling.
Support : 2880, 2840, 2800, 2770 level.
Resistance : 2900, 2920, 2950, 2970 level.
Comment :
FCPO closed recovered little upward with better volume changed hand. Soy oil currently declining lower after overnight advanced about 1.5% while crude oil price currently falling lower.
Price traded mostly in negative zone through out the day after ITS cargo surveyor reported weaker export data and MPOB official data also reported negative impact data with lower export, higher stock and production level followed by late afternoon SGS cargo surveyor positive export data lifted price into positive territory.
Daily chart study revised to calling a pillback correction downside biased market development after price tested near lower Bollinger band support level and rebounded.
When to buy : buy at support or weakness with quick cut loss and profit target.
When to sell : sell at resistant or strength with quick cut loss and profit target.

20120810 1730 FKLI EOD Daily Chart Study.

FKLI closed : 1641.5 changed : +2 points, volume : lower.
Bollinger band reading : correction range bound little upside biased.
MACD Histogram : recovering, buyer seller battling.
Support : 1640, 1630, 1623, 1615 level.
Resistance : 1650, 1660, 1670, 1680 level.
Comment :
FKLI closed recorded small gain with dying down volume distributed doing 3.5 points discount compare to cash market that closed little higher. Overnight U.S. markets closed mixed and today Asia markets also having mixed development while European markets currently trading lower.
Global markets reacted differently after China trade data reported exports and new bank loans grew less than estimated raising concern of deepining slowdown and hope for more stimulus measure at the same time while some major corporates reported falling earnings.
FKLI daily chart reading remained unchanged calling a correction range bound little upside biased market development.
When to buy : buy at support or weakness with quick cut loss and profit target.
When to sell : sell at resistance or strength with quick cut loss and profit target.

20120810 1702 Regional Markets EOD Daily Chart Study.

 DJIA chart reading : upside biased.
 Hang Seng chart reading : pullback correction upside biased.
KLCI chart reading :  side way range bound.

20120810 1613 Global Markets & Commodities Related News.

GLOBAL MARKETS: Asian shares snapped a four-day rally and extended losses after China's July trade data fell far short of expectations, casting doubts on whether the sputtering global economy will regain traction any time soon. European shares were set to retreat from a 20-week high in a knee-jerk reaction following poor Chinese trade data, although losses were seen limited on expectations Beijing might launch some stimulus measures to boost the economy. The S&P's 500 extended its rally to a fifth day on Thursday, again eking out a tiny gain as lingering expectations for economic stimulus from central banks lent support to a market lacking new catalysts.

FOREX: The euro remained under pressure in Asia, though it was off its lows the day before as hopes for progress in Europe's debt crisis offset some of the worries about slowing euro zone growth.

FOREX-Euro pressured, Aussie slips on weak China trade data
The euro remained under pressure in Asia and the Australian dollar skidded after weaker-than-expected Chinese trade data raised fears of a slowdown.
"The Aussie has positive and negative factors. It benefits from high Australian yields on its highly-rated debt, but it's sensitive to the country's exposure to China, and naturally falls on bad economic news like this from its major trading partner,"  said Masashi Murata, senior currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman in Tokyo.

COLUMN-China commodity demand bumping along the bottom
--- (Clyde Russell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own) ---
LAUNCESTON, Australia, Aug 10 (Reuters) - Whenever economies are at turning points the data tends to be inconsistent, and this can be seen in China's trade figures for July.
The headline-grabbing slump in exports to growth of just one percent from the year-earlier month, when 8.6 percent was forecast, is a sure sign that the global economy is doing it tough because the world's main factory is finding it hard to sell its wares.

China July commodities imports stay high; outlook weakens
SHANGHAI, Aug 10 (Reuters) - China's imports of key commodities, such as iron ore and copper, defied expectations for a monthly fall to stay high in July, but weak trade figures and a nine-month low in crude oil imports  painted a picture of a slowing economy.
China is the world's second-largest oil consumer and the top buyer of iron ore, coal and several industrial metals, with investors and miners around the world relying on its appetite to prop up commodities prices hit by sluggish demand from the United States and Europe.

China July exports undershoot forecasts by big margin
China's July exports rose just 1 percent from a year earlier, undershooting forecasts by a big margin and adding to a downbeat set of monthly data that has boosted expectations of fresh government action to shore up the economy.

U.S. jobs, trade data supports modest economic growth
The number of Americans filing new claims for jobless benefits unexpectedly fell last week, offering hope that some of last month's improvement in job growth could be sustained and give the U.S. economy a lift.

China July soy imports rise to 25-month high
Soybean imports by China, the world's top soy buyer, rose 4.4 percent in July from a month earlier to a 25-month high of 5.87 million tonnes as crushers increased imports to make up for a supply shortfall in peak consumption months.

GRAINS: U.S. new-crop corn rose to a contract high ahead of a key U.S. Department of Agriculture report that is expected to forecast production of the grain at a six-year low, as yields hit levels not seen since 1997.

OPEC says may cut 2013 oil demand growth forecast
OPEC may have to reduce its forecast for growth in world oil demand in 2013 by 20 percent, the exporter group said, citing a vague and turbulent outlook for the global economy.

OIL: Brent crude fell below $113 a barrel as a sharp slowdown in China's trade flows heightened fuel demand worries, though these were partly offset by hopes that the world's second biggest economy would ease monetary policy and so boost oil use.

Euro Coal-S.African bids drop $4/T to $87 with swaps
LONDON, Aug 9 (Reuters) - 07961 931346 if queries  Physical prompt South African coal prices softened by $4 a tonne on Thursday after rallying on the previous day to the highest level since June.
September and October loading South African cargoes were bid at $87 and $89 a tonne on Thursday, down from trades at $91 and $92 on the previous day, while delivered Europe prices ended little changed.

Europe's LNG supplies to drop 70 pct by 2015 -Barclays
LONDON, Aug 9 (Reuters) - Supplies of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Europe are likely to  drop by almost 70 percent by 2015 as the booming Asian market sucks up cargoes, Barclays said on Thursday.
As a result, Europe will continue to rely largely on pipeline gas from sources such as Russia and Norway to meet its natural gas needs, Barclays Capital said in a research note.

Iron Ore-Spot prices at 2-1/2 year low, China imports drop
SINGAPORE, Aug 10 (Reuters) - Price offers for spot iron ore cargoes in top consumer China fell after the benchmark rate sagged to its lowest in more than 2-1/2 years as weaker steel demand cut producers' need for the raw material.
China's iron ore imports fell for a second straight month in July as steel mills curbed output in the face of sluggish demand. Imports dropped to 57.87 million tonnes last month from 58.31 million tonnes in June, preliminary customs data showed on Friday.

German steel group says order decline has bottomed
FRANKFURT, Aug 9 (Reuters) - The German Steel Federation said it believed the decline in new orders for flat steel products had reached a bottom but warned the euro zone would have to resolve its debt crisis before any long-term recovery could take place.
The group, which represents steelmakers in Europe's biggest economy, said on Thursday inventory levels for flat steel products had fallen to low levels and should not decline any further.
New orders started falling in February and have stabilised since June.

China July iron ore imports slip 0.8 pct from June
China's iron ore imports fell 0.8 percent in July from the previous month as mills in the world's top steel producer reduced production because of waning demand.

China July copper imports up 5.9 pct, beating expectations
HONG KONG, Aug 10 (Reuters) - China's copper imports rose 5.9 in July from the previous month and gained 19.5 percent from a year earlier, preliminary customs data showed on Friday, reversing a decline in June despite slowing economic activity in the world's top consumer of the metal.
The increase was unexpected after weak domestic demand had been forecast to cut term shipments.

BASE METALS: Copper fell on soft China trade data, despite a rise in copper imports in July, as surprisingly weak import and export numbers marked a second day of gloomy data from the world's top metals consumer

PRECIOUS METALS: Gold inched down as shares in Asia paused for breath after recent rallies, though it remained on track for its second weekly rise in three weeks, bolstered by hopes China could move to stimulate growth.

METALS-Copper dragged down by weak China trade data
Copper fell on soft China trade data, despite a rise in copper imports in July, as surprisingly weak import and export numbers marked a second day of gloomy data from the world's top metals consumer.
"We understand that consumer demand is still sluggish," said CIFCO futures analyst Zhou Jie, pointing to a fall in futures prices as evidence of market nonchalance to the better-than-expected numbers.

PRECIOUS-Gold inches down but China stimulus hopes support
Gold inched down as shares in Asia paused for breath after recent rallies, though it remained on track for its second weekly rise in three weeks, bolstered by hopes China could move to stimulate growth.
"I think people are looking for China to reduce the reserve (requirement) and then pump more money. They are hoping for weak U.S. data, and maybe QE3 will be coming in September," said Ronald Leung, director of Lee Cheong Gold Dealers in Hong Kong, referring to a third round of asset purchases by the Fed.
"The market is a bit mixed ... On the physical side, there are people buying a small amount of gold, but on other hand, some are taking profits."

Baltic index falls further on low shipping activity
Aug 9 (Reuters) - The Baltic Exchange's main sea freight index, used to track rates for ships carrying dry commodities, fell further on Thursday for the 23rd straight day, due to very thin shipping activity.
The main index, which reflects daily freight market prices for capesize, panamax, supramax and handysize dry bulk transport vessels, lost 22 points or 2.71 percent to reach 790 points, the lowest since March this year.

 Global slump sinks Britain's oldest shipping firm
LONDON, Aug 9 (Reuters) - Britain's oldest shipping firm, Stephenson Clarke Shipping Ltd, has gone into liquidation after nearly 300 years of trading, becoming a casualty of the worsening global downturn.
Established in 1730, Stephenson Clarke had tried to sell its ships and cut costs in the face of crashing rates for dry bulk shipping on which it relied - transporting cargoes such as coal, grain and iron ore.

Eagle Bulk Shipping loss widens on lower charter rates
Aug 8 (Reuters) - Drybulk shipper Eagle Bulk Shipping Inc  reported a wider quarterly loss on depressed charter rates as the sector continues to grapple with oversupply.
The company's net loss widened to $23.1 million, or $1.46 per share, in the second quarter, from $1.4 million, or 9 cents per share, a year earlier.

Baltic index slips on paucity of fresh cargoes
Aug 8 (Reuters) - The Baltic Exchange's main sea freight index, which tracks rates for ships carrying dry commodities, dropped on Wednesday due to a scarcity of fresh cargoes.
The main index, which gauges the cost of shipping commodities including iron ore, coal and grain, fell 2.87 percent or 24 points to 812 points.

20120810 1140 Global Markets @ Commodities Related News.

GLOBAL MARKETS-Shares pause as markets' policy hopes grow stale
TOKYO, Aug 10 (Reuters) - Asian shares paused on Friday as investors took stock of a four-day rally driven by optimism, yet to be borne out by action, that authorities will soon take the steps needed to ease concerns over the euro zone's debt crisis and weak growth.
"Stocks are overheating and profit-takers will cool things down in the mean time, but momentum is still moving forward from a broader picture," said Lee Young-gon, an analyst at Hana Daetoo Securities.

COMMODITIES-Corn hits record high; Brent oil up for 5th day
NEW YORK, Aug 9 (Reuters) - Corn prices hit record highs on Thursday as investors girded for the U.S. government to slash its crop output foreast after the worst drought in half a century, and benchmark Brent crude rose for a fifth day on encouraging economic data.
"The general mood is bullish - any dip is still being used as a buying opportunity," said Carsten Fritsch, an energy analyst at Commerzbank in Frankfurt.

OIL-Oil up on US data, North Sea outlook, stimulus hopes
NEW YORK, Aug 9 (Reuters) - Oil futures rose on Thursday, with Brent gaining for the fifth straight session, lifted by stronger-than-expected economic data from the United States, a lower outlook for North Sea Brent production and persistent hopes for economic stimulus.
"The general mood is bullish - any dip is still being used as a buying opportunity," said Carsten Fritsch, an energy analyst at Commerzbank in Frankfurt.

OPEC says may cut 2013 oil demand growth forecast
LONDON, Aug 9 (Reuters) - OPEC may have to reduce its forecast for growth in world oil demand in 2013 by 20 percent, the exporter group said, citing a vague and turbulent outlook for the global economy.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries left its forecast unchanged on Thursday from its estimate last month, however. Demand will expand by 810,000 barrels per day (bpd) next year, although the odds suggest oil use could undershoot that figure, it said.

China's July crude runs up 1.1 pct -stats bureau
BEIJING, Aug 9 (Reuters) - China's refinery throughput inched up 1.1 percent in July, reversing a run of declines for three straight months, but was the second lowest this year as demand stayed tepid in the world's second-largest oil consumer.
The National Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday that China processed 37.6 million tonnes, or 8.85 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil in July, up 1.1 percent from a year earlier.

NATURAL GAS-Front-month US natgas trims early gains, still ends up
NEW YORK, Aug 9 (Reuters) - Front-month U.S. natural gas futures trimmed early gains but still ended slightly higher on Thursday, underpinned by warm extended weather forecasts and a government report showing a weekly inventory build well below market expectations.
"It (the EIA build) was more constructive than we've seen in the last few weeks, but summer is running out, and as prices move higher, the coal (switching) load comes into question, which should cap the upside," a Massachusetts-based trader said.

EURO COAL-S.African bids drop $4/T to $87 with swaps
LONDON, Aug 9 (Reuters) -Physical prompt South African coal prices softened by $4 a tonne on Thursday after rallying on the previous day to the highest level since June.
This week's coal price rise on the back of strikes in Colombia which have cut over 1.5 million tonnes from 2012's exports, was probably an overreaction given the market's continued, overall oversupply, traders and utilities said.

20120810 1010 Malaysia Corporate Related News.

SapuraKencana Petroleum’s subsidiary, Kencana HL has received a letter of award from Kebabangan Petroleum Operating Company Sdn Bhd (“KPOC”) for the provision of hook-up and commissioning services for Kebabangan Northern Hub Development Project. The Contract comprises provision of hook-up and commissioning services for offshore facilities for the Kebabangan oil field located offshore Sabah. The company estimates that the total value of the Contract is approximately RM106m. The work for the Contract is expected to commence in middle of 2012 and is expected to be completed by middle of 2014. (BMSB)

RHB Bank-Mestika deal is still going ahead and the outcome will depend on the Indonesian authorities’ approval. It was reported that RHB Capital, which plans to acquire an 80% stake in PT Bank Mestika Dharma, expected to conclude the takeover by the third quarter of this year. (Bernama)

Local palm oil refiners are questioning the status of the export quota beneficiaries. An industry source said refiners wanted transparency in terms of the allocation and distribution of the quota to the beneficiaries which were dubbed "kings of the palm oil approved permit (AP)". "When the quota was first introduced, the criterion is for plantation-based refiners, plantation companies in East Malaysia and/or companies having joint-ventures overseas to supply CPO to their JV partners overseas," the source explained. However, some independent refiners are claiming that out of the 50 companies given the so-called APs last year, 50% were not related to plantation, refining or JV companies. Furthermore, the distribution of quota was not disclosed and some beneficiaries have been given more than 500,000 tonnes a year each, said the source. (StarBiz)

Palm Oil Refiners Association of Malaysia (Poram) and Malaysian Estate Owners’ Association (MEOA) – representing both upstream and downstream stakeholders – suggest that the government lowers the current 23% crude palm oil tax (CPO) to 8% instead of increasing duty free CPO export quota. Recently, the Plantation Industries and Commodities Ministry announced the export of another 2m tonnes of duty-free CPO by the end of next month – a move that many refiners see as throwing good money after bad. This is because this decision will result in the government forgoing some RM4bn in tax collection by allowing the export of up to 5.5m tonnes of duty-free CPO. As palm oil prices continue to fall in the last four months, the refiner said it is naive to assume that by pushing palm oil exports, stock levels will come down and this would prompt palm oil prices to jump. “Does the government think they can really push prices up by pushing CPO exports?” a refiner questioned. (BT)

1Malaysia Development Bhd (1MDB) is buying another power asset, its second in five months after a RM8.5bn acquisition of Tanjong Plc’s power business. Sources said the government-owned firm is paying between RM3bn and RM3.5bn for Genting Sanyen from the Genting Group. “The deal is reaching its final stage and will be announced soon. This is part of 1MDB’s business plan which has identified power as one of its core businesses as well as ensure the long-term power security of the country,” the source said. The source said once the purchase is completed, Genting Sanyen will be grouped under a new entity called 1MDB Energy together with Tanjong Energy Holdings Sdn Bhd, which it bought in March from tycoon T. Ananda Krishnan. Genting Sanyen is the power arm of conglomerate Genting Group and is one of the country’s five independent power producers (IPPs). (BT)

AirAsia X aims to triple the number of passengers by 2015 as it expands its fleet to 25 aircraft, said CEO Azran Osman-Rani. “We carried 2.5m passengers in 2011. We hope once the 14 aircraft are delivered by 2014, we will be able to carry some 7m passengers, he said. AirAsia X signed a letter of intent with International Lease Finance Corp (ILFC) for the lease of six A330-300, based on a 10-year lease in a deal worth US$500m. (Financial Daily)

Syarikat Prasarana Negara Bhd is preparing to lease out its fibre-optic lines along the Ampang LRT and Monorail tracks to telecommunication companies as another non-fare revenue. "It is a win-win situation, our company can capitalise on the city's need to expand telecommunications coverage whereas the telecommunication companies can save a huge sum as it is cheaper to rent our fibre-optic lines than to lay their own," said Prasarana Group managing director Datuk Shahril Mokhtar. Maxis, Digi, Celcom and Time are some of the companies that have taken up the offer. (Star)

VADS, a unit of Telekom Malaysia, plans to expand its managed information, communication and technology (ICT) business to Indonesia. "We are looking to grow our ICT business in Indonesia and we are still assessing on how to deliver our services there," chief executive officer Ahmad Azhar Yahya told reporters at a media briefing here yesterday. VADS believes that Indonesia holds great potential for the company. He said Indonesia is the largest ICT market in Southeast Asia, compared to Malaysia's RM5bn market size. Among the new businesses that it wants to offer are data centres, cloud computing, managed telepresence and managed services. He did not disclose how much it would invest in Indonesia, but said the company has funding options available and could seek a local partner if needed. (BT)

Pos Malaysia is currently in talks to acquire a courier company in the Middle East to diversify its business portfolio, in line with its five-year transformation plan. Group CEO, Datuk Khalid Abdol Rahman, said the company aimed to conclude the talks most probably by year-end. "We are also looking at acquisition for the logistics business as well," he said. Khalid said the company, which has allocated a capital expenditure (capex) of RM100m to RM150m for the current financial year, could increase it in case of merger and acquisition (M&A) exercise. (BT)

Some 177 homes will be on sale at Setia Eco Glades in Cyberjaya on Sunday via balloting. With a GDV of RM3bn, Setia Eco Glades spans 268 acres and is situated just next to the 400-acre Cyberjaya Lake Gardens. Setia Eco Glades Sdn Bhd CEO Koe Peng Kang said the units will be sold via a balloting process. "So far, we have about 600 registrants interested to buy the units via balloting on Sunday. They have to show us proof [an acknowledgement letter from the bank] that they have submitted the relevant documents to the bank for a housing loan to be able to register for the balloting. This way, only those serious about purchasing a unit in Setia Eco Glades will be present and we believe everybody can have a fair chance to own a unit via balloting," he said. (Financial Daily)

Ho Hup Construction Company Bhd has been awarded a contract for the design and execution of civil and electro-mechanical works for the Al-Zuhour Water Project in Baghdad, Iraq, worth RM267m. "Construction of the project is planned to commence in September 2012 and is expected to be completed in 30 months, with a further 12 months of maintenance period," it said. (StarBiz)

Eng Teknologi has been awarded RM61.6m in insurance claims following the damages to their operations following the severe floods in Ayutthaya, Thailand last year. EngTek said its subsidiary Altum Precision Co., Ltd's insurer had confirmed it would pay out RM61.6m as compensation for inventories, property, plant and equipment damages arising from the floods. To date, it has received RM12m out of the claims. It is expected to receive the balance of RM49.6m by end September. (StarBiz)

Delloyd Ventures saw 9.19m shares transacted in an off-market deal at RM3.20 each yesterday. The block shares represented 9.19% stake, based on its paid-up of 100.004m shares. (Star Biz)

O&G: EBX Group to invest MYR8.6b in Malaysia. ECONOMIC ties between Malaysia and Brazil are set to soar following the move by Brazilian conglomerate, EBX Group, to commit USD6b (MYR18.6b) for fast-tracked high-impact strategic foreign direct investments (FDI) into Malaysia. In return, Malaysia would be accorded exclusive exploration and production operating rights jointly with the EBX Group in Brazil, which currently has potential petroleum resources of more than 10 billion barrels.(Source: Malaysian Reserve)

20120810 1009 Local & Global Economy Related News.

Industrial production index (IPI) rose 3.7% yoy in Jun (7.8% in May), which was came in below market expectation (4.2%). The manufacturing increased 4.8% (6.7% in May), electricity up 5.9% (6.6% in May) while mining decline 0.3% (+11.5% in May). On a mom basis, IPI dropped by 1.4% (+3.6% in May). In 6M12, IPI up 4% yoy. (BT)

The manufacturing sales rose 6.3% yoy to RM52.8bn in Jun (+8.8% to RM51.9bn in May). On a mom basis, it increased 1.6% (-0.9% in May). In 6M12, the sales up 6.7% yoy to RM310.7bn. Total employees engaged in the manufacturing sector increased 0.3% yoy to 1.027m persons in Jun (+0.6% to 1.028m persons in May). Salaries & wages paid in Jun up 1.4% yoy to RM2.50bn (+9.7% to RM2.51bn in May). Average salaries & wages per employee increased by 1.1% yoy to RM2,430 (+9.1% to RM2,446 in May). Productivity grew 6% yoy in Jun (+8.1% in May). (Department of Statistics)

The Malaysia External Trade Development Corporation (Matrade) expects trade between China and Malaysia to double in the next five years, said deputy chief executive Datuk Mohamad Kamarudin Hassan. He said China continued to remain Malaysia's largest global trading partner since 2009. Malaysia's total trade with China amounted to RM166.86bn last year, up 13.9%, when compared with 2010. In order to achieve the target, Matrade has identified 10 urban Chinese cities including Chengdu, Chongqing, Xi'an, Zhengzhou and Shenyang, as second-tier cities. First-tier cities like Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou have become too expensive, he said. (BT)

Malaysia is one of the most attractive business destinations for setting up regional bases among the Asean countries, with its business friendly environment, competitive cost structures and well-skilled workforce, according to Asean Business Climate Survey 2012 conducted by the Malaysia-German Chamber of Commerce and Industry (MGCC). Its executive director, Alexander Stedtfeld, said the survey also found that 50% of respondents in Malaysia felt that the overall economy of Malaysia would be maintained by the end of the next 12 months while 30% of them expect it to get better. The survey was conducted among MGCC member companies in Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam. (Bernama)

Malaysia will further strengthen its presence as Asia's premiere business events destination via three upcoming international conferences that will be held in Nov and 2015. The Malaysia Convention & Exhibition Bureau (MyCEB) said Kuala Lumpur would host the four-day East Asia Regional Council of Schools Leadership Conference (ELC) 2012 beginning 1 Nov, which would generate an estimated RM9.1m in economic impact to the country, it said in a statement. Two more conferences would be conducted in 2015, namely the 44th International Federation of Training and Development Organisations World Conference 2015 and Asia Pacific Association of Cataract and Refractive Surgeons 2015. (Bernama)

Most major economies are set to slow in coming months, with only Brazil and possibly the UK likely to experience a moderate pickup, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development’s composite leading indicators. (WSJ)

The US Fed's balance sheet - a broad gauge of its lending to the financial system - stood at US$2.839tr on 8 Aug, up from US$2.834tr on 1 Aug, with its holdings of Treasuries totalling US$1.652tr as of Wed, versus US$1.649tr the previous week. (Reuters)

The US trade balance shrank to –US$42.9bn from a revised -US$48.0bn in May, thanks in part to lower oil prices and also a general import dip. Analysts were forecasting a deficit of US$47.5bn. (Bloomberg)

US wholesale trade fell 0.2% mom in Jun (a revised 0.0% in May), undershooting consensus of 0.3%. (Bloomberg)

US jobless claims fell 6,000 in the 4 Aug week to 361,000 (a revised 367,000 in the 28 Jul week). Economists were expecting claims to total 367,000. (Bloomberg)

Chinese inflation slowed to 1.8% yoy in Jul (2.2% in Jun), the lowest level in 30 months, opening up more space for the government to stimulate the stuttering economy. Factory-gate inflation is even weaker, with producer prices falling 2.9% in Jul (-2.1% in Jun). (Bloomberg, FT)

China’s industrial production grew 9.2% yoy in Jul (9.5% in Jun), missing the median analyst estimate of 9.7%. (Bloomberg)

China’s retail sales grew at 13.1% yoy in Jul, the slowest pace since 2007, from 13.7% in Jun, and lower than economists’ expectations of 13.5%. (Bloomberg)

China raised the maximum price at which gasoline can be sold to motorists by Rmb390 (US$61) a metric ton and diesel by Rmb370. The pump price of 90-RON China III gasoline in Beijing will increase about 4.3% to Rmb9,490 a ton, or US$4.27 a US gallon (Reuters)

China’s fixed-asset investment excluding rural households increased 20.4% yoy in the Jan to Jul period, the same pace as the first half. That compared with the 20.6% median estimate. (Bloomberg)

China’s passenger-car sales to dealerships in Jul rose 10.7% yoy to 1.12m units, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers said. That compares with the 1.16m average estimate by analysts. (Bloomberg)

Japan’s M1 rose 3.1% yoy in Jul to ¥535.3tr (3.3% in Jun), whilst M2 gained 2.2% yoy in Jul to ¥820tr, matching Jun’s pace. (The Daily Yomiuri)

Japan’s machinery orders gained 5.6% mom after slumping 14.8% in May, the biggest drop in over a decade. Economists were expecting a 12% increase. (Bloomberg)

The Bank of Japan kept its asset-purchase fund at ¥45tr (US$573bn) and lending facility at ¥25tr. All 22 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News predicted no change. The central bank kept its benchmark interest rate between zero and 0.1% and monthly bond purchases at ¥1.8tr. (Bloomberg)

The Bank of Korea left the benchmark seven-day repurchase rate unchanged at 3%, as was predicted by 10 of 16 economists surveyed. (Bloomberg)

Industrial production in India declined 1.8% yoy, after a revised 2.5% rise in May. (Bloomberg)

Bank Indonesia kept the reference rate unchanged at a record-low 5.75%. The decision was predicted by all but one of 26 economists surveyed. (Bloomberg)

Indonesia has issued a regulation that will set clear timeframes for the acquisition of land for infrastructure, which should help speed up infrastructure development in Southeast Asia's largest economy. (Reuters)

Sales of motorcycles in Indonesia, an indicator of consumption in Southeast Asia's biggest economy, fell 21.5% yoy in Jul (-17.7% in Jun). (Reuters)

The damage on Thailand’s export sector caused by the eurozone debt crisis is THB300-500bn, according to the Economic and Business Forecasting Centre at the University of Thai Chamber of Commerce. (Bangkok Post)

The Thai Chamber of Commerce reported a significant drop in Thai exports during the first half of this year, due to the fallout from the Eurozone debt crisis. (Thai Financial Post)

The Bank of Thailand has indicated that commercial bank lending in the last half of the year might contract in line with the economy while expressing confidence that Thai entrepreneurs can still adapt to the economic situation. (Thai Financial Post)

Vietnam’s spending from the State budget in the first seven months of the year increased 15% while its input decreased 2.8% compared with the same period last year, the Ministry of Finance said. (Vietnam News)

20120810 0956 Global Market Related News.

Asia FX By Cornelius Luca - Thu 09 Aug 2012 17:07:34 CT (Source:CME/
The appetite for risk was mixed on Thursday. The European currencies and yen ended lower and the commodity currencies higher on Thursday after closing divergently on Wednesday. The US stock markets ended mixed, but gold, oil and silver edged up.  The market needs new information. The short-term outlook for the foreign currencies is sideways. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is sideways. The LGR short-term model is short only the yen.  Good luck!

US: The initial jobless claims fell to 361,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 367,000.
US: The trade balance showed a deficit of $42.9 billion in June, a 10.7% drop from the revised May level of $48 billion.
Canada: The international merchandise trade showed a deficit of C$1.81 billion in June from -C$0.95 billion in May.
Canada: The new housing price index slowed to 0.2% in July from 0.3% in June.

Today's economic calendar
China: Trade Balance for July
Australia: The RBA monetary policy statement
Japan: Industrial production for June

Most Asian Stocks Drop on Concern About China Slowdown (Source: Bloomberg)
Asian stocks swung between gains and losses, with the regional benchmark index headed for its biggest weekly gain this year, ahead of a report expected to show China’s export growth slowed for a third month. Trend Micro Inc. (4704) slumped 9.9 percent in Tokyo after earnings fell at the maker of anti-virus software. Olympus Corp. dropped 1.9 percent after the camera maker last year embroiled in an accounting scandal violated terms on 320 billion yen ($4 billion) in loans. LG Electronics Inc. rose 1.6 percent on speculation sales in its biggest market will rise after U.S. jobless claims unexpectedly fell. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index (MXAP) fell less than 0.1 percent to 120.89 as of 10:00 a.m. in Tokyo, with more than six stocks dropping for each that rose. The gauge is heading for a 3.3 percent advance this week amid speculation China will add stimulus to support growth and after Germany backed a European Central Bank bond-buying plan.
“Markets have resumed an uptrend but it won’t be without volatility,” said Nader Naeimi, Sydney-based head of dynamic asset allocation at AMP Capital Investors Ltd., which manages a most $100 billion. “While disaster has been avoided in Europe on the back of the ECB’s actions, earnings will remain weak reflecting a soft patch in the global economy.”

Japanese Stocks Decline Amid Economic Growth Concern (Source: Bloomberg)
Japanese stocks fell for the first time in five days, paring the biggest weekly gain since February, as currency gains hit exporters ahead of a report next week expected to show the country’s economy slowed. Canon Inc. (7751), a camera maker that depends on Europe for almost a third of its sales, fell 0.8 percent after the shared currency weakened. Trend Micro Inc. sank 10 percent after earnings fell at the security software maker. Sony Corp gained 5.1 percent after the consumer-electronics company offered to buy out online shopping site So-net Entertainment Corp. “The euro’s weakness is likely to get priced into stocks today,” said Kenichi Hirano, general manager and strategist at Tachibana Securities Co. in Tokyo. “Investors won’t become bullish until the currency market settles down.”
The Nikkei 225 Stock Average (NKY) fell 0.4 percent to 8,940.41 as of 9:34 a.m. in Tokyo, trimming a weekly gain to 4.5 percent. Trading volume was almost 20 percent above the 30-day average as traders settled the price of August options on the gauge at 8.914.81. The broader Topix lost 0.1 percent to 750.78, with about four shares dropping for every three that gained.

Hong Kong Stocks Advance as China CPI Slows Fourth Month (Source: Bloomberg)
Hong Kong stocks rose, with the benchmark index closing at the highest level since May, as slowing gains in China’s inflation and industrial production boosted bets for added stimulus to support economic growth. Agricultural Bank of China Ltd. (1288) added 0.9 percent. Shimao Property Holdings Ltd. paced gains among mainland developers after Poly Real Estate Group Co. reported July contracted sales jumped. SJM Holdings Ltd., the Macau casino operator founded by billionaire Stanley Ho, gained 2.3 percent after reporting a 28 percent increase in first-half profit. The Hang Seng Index added 1 percent to close at 20,269.47, the highest since May 9. All but eight stocks gained on the 49- member gauge. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI) of mainland companies rose 1 percent to 9,962.17.
“The market is expecting some type of policy support from the Chinese government to accelerate the economy because momentum is slowing at this point,” said Tim Leung, a portfolio manager who helps manage about $1.5 billion at IG Investment Ltd. in Hong Kong. The Hang Seng Index fell 6.5 percent from this year’s high on Feb. 29 amid concern global policy measures may fail to revive growth as Europe’s debt crisis spreads. Shares on the gauge trade for 10.7 times estimated earnings on average, compared with 13.6 for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index and 11.6 for Stoxx Europe 600 Index.

S&P 500 Caps Longest Rally Since March on Economic Data (Source: Bloomberg)
Most U.S. stocks rose, giving the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index its longest rally since March, as data showing an unexpected decline in jobless claims last week tempered concern about a worsening of Europe’s economy. A measure of homebuilders in S&P indexes advanced 2.3 percent as JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) said it saw higher demand in the industry and data showed prices for single-family homes rose in most U.S. cities last quarter. E*Trade Financial Corp. (ETFC) increased 6.9 percent as Chief Executive Officer Steven J. Freiberg was ousted from the brokerage. Monster Beverage Corp. declined 9.7 percent after profit and sales trailed estimates. Five stocks rose for every four falling on U.S. exchanges at 4 p.m. New York time. The S&P 500 (SPX) added less than 0.1 percent to 1,402.80, rallying 2.8 percent in five days. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 10.45 points, or 0.1 percent, to 13,165.19. Volume for exchange-listed stocks in the U.S. was 5.5 billion shares, 18 percent below the three-month average.
“We acknowledge the positive news,” Wayne Lin, a money manager at Baltimore-based Legg Mason Inc., said in a telephone interview. His firm oversees $631.8 billion. “We’ve had some positive surprises on the jobs front and it seems that housing has found some footing. Yet people are aware of the risks. The risk in Europe is still out there.”

Emerging Stocks Reach Three-Month High as China Inflation Slows (Source: Bloomberg)
Emerging-market stocks rose to a three-month high after U.S. jobless claims unexpectedly fell and as China’s inflation cooled in July, providing policy makers more room to stimulate the world’s second-largest economy. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index (VXEEM) climbed 0.9 percent to 979.28, gaining for a fifth day to the highest since May 10. South Korea’s Kospi (KOSPI) index jumped 2 percent and Warsaw’s WIG20 gauge advanced 2.2 percent. Brazil’s Bovespa stock index fell with clothing retailer Lojas Renner SA and steelmaker Usinas Siderurgicas de Minas Gerais SA among the biggest losers. Circuit-board maker Zhen Ding Technology Holding Ltd. (4958) rallied 7 percent in Taipei.
China’s consumer prices increased 1.8 percent last month, compared with a 2.2 percent gain in June. The Bank of Korea said growth momentum is “slackening,” fueling optimism the central bank will cut borrowing costs later this year after keeping its interest rate unchanged today. Fewer Americans filed applications for unemployment benefits last week, with jobless claims unexpectedly dropping by 6,000 to 361,000 in the week ended Aug. 4, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. “As news gets worse in China, it provides more of an excuse for any kind of Chinese stimulus,” Michael Gayed, chief investment strategist at Pension Partners LLC overseeing about $160 million in assets, said by phone from New York. “Any kind of improving data from the U.S. has helped undo the bearish sentiment and it reflects in rising stocks globally. This has been a year purely of psychology.”

European Stocks Rise for Fifth Day; Nestle Gains (Source: Bloomberg)
European stocks climbed for a fifth day as Nestle SA (NESN) posted sales growth that beat estimates and a report showed China’s inflation cooled, increasing speculation that policy makers will do more to stimulate the economy. Nestle, which accounts for more than 3 percent of the Stoxx Europe 600 Index (SXXP), advanced 2.4 percent as higher prices helped to increase revenue. Novo Nordisk (NOVOB) A/S gained 1.3 percent after the company raised its full-year sales and profit forecasts. Deutsche Telekom AG (DTE) slid 2 percent after saying it has lost more customers in the U.S. than analysts had forecast. The Stoxx 600 increased 0.4 percent to 270.26 at the close, its highest level since March 19. The equity benchmark has rallied 16 percent since its 2012 low on June 4, with nine straight weeks of gains, as policy makers eased repayment terms for Spanish lenders and optimism grew that central banks will add more stimulus.
“If the figures show mild inflation and economic growth slows down as they have recently, there’s a strong chance that China will add stimulus,” said Pierre Mouton, a fund manager who helps oversee $6.5 billion at Notz Stucki & Cie. in Geneva. “On earnings, Nestle’s reported a very good set of results. It helps the sector as a whole.” The volume of shares changing hands on the Stoxx 600 was 23 percent lower than the average of the last 30 days, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The volume of securities trading on Germany’s DAX Index was 12 percent higher than the average.

Euro Poised for Weekly Drop Before GDP Report; Dollar Holds Gain (Source: Bloomberg)
The euro was set for the first five- day drop in three weeks before data forecast to show the economy of the region that shares the currency shrank. The 17-nation euro remained lower against the yen following a two-day slide after economists in a European Central Bank survey cut their 2013 growth estimate for the currency bloc. The dollar maintained a gain versus the yen from yesterday as Treasury yields rose before a report projected to show U.S. retail sales advanced for the first time in four months. “The markets will have to assume euro weakness,” said Gavin Stacey, chief rate strategist in Sydney at Barclays Plc. “The euro situation is continuing to deteriorate on the economic front and obviously does warrant more aggressive measures from the ECB.”
The euro traded at $1.2298 and 96.66 yen as of 8:26 a.m. in Tokyo, little changed from the close in New York yesterday. It has lost 0.7 percent this week against the greenback and 0.6 percent versus the Japanese currency. The dollar fetched 78.59 yen after advancing 0.2 percent yesterday to 78.57. It has risen 0.2 percent since Aug. 3. Gross domestic product in the euro area probably contracted 0.2 percent in the three months through June after being unchanged in the first quarter, according to the median forecast of economists in a Bloomberg News survey. The European Union’s statistics office will report the figure on Aug. 14. The economists polled by the ECB reduced their 2013 growth projection to 0.6 percent from 1 percent. The region’s economy is likely to shrink 0.3 percent this year, they said in the ECB’s monthly bulletin yesterday.

FOREX-Euro ekes out gain, Aussie lifted by jobs, China data
TOKYO, Aug 9 (Reuters) - The euro got a slight lift against major counterparts and the Australian dollar crested at a 4-1/2 month peak after Chinese inflation data suggested scope for further easing and Australia's employment picture brightened.
"Today's data releases can be said to be better than expected, though overall, market moves were small, with recent ranges holding for now," said Kimihiko Tomita, head of foreign exchange for State Street Global Markets in Tokyo.  

Jobless Claims Fall in Sign U.S. Job Market Mending: Economy (Source: Bloomberg)
Fewer Americans filed applications for unemployment benefits last week, a sign the labor market may keep improving after hiring picked up in July. Jobless claims unexpectedly dropped by 6,000 to 361,000 in the week ended Aug. 4, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. The median forecast of 43 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News called for an increase to 370,000. Other reports showed consumer confidence dropped to a two-month low and home prices climbed by the most since 2006. The decrease in firings indicates the job market continues to mend after payrolls rose last month by the most since February. The world’s largest economy needs bigger gains in employment to prevent the lingering European debt crisis and approaching U.S. fiscal cliff from derailing the economic expansion.
“There’s a gradual improvement on the layoffs side,” said Peter Newland, an economist in New York for Barclays Plc, who projected claims would drop to 360,000. There will be “a bit of a rebound in the second half. It’s not going to be spectacular, but it should be better than the first half.” Most stocks rose, giving the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index its longest rally since March. The S&P 500 advanced less than 0.1 percent to 1,402.8 at the close in New York.

Home Prices Rise in 75% of U.S. Cities in Second Quarter (Source: Bloomberg)
Prices for single-family homes climbed in three-quarters of U.S. cities and values nationally jumped the most since 2006 as real estate markets stabilized. The median sales price increased in the second quarter from a year earlier in 110 of 147 metropolitan areas measured, the National Association of Realtors said in a report today. In the first quarter, 74 areas had gains. U.S. housing prices are beginning to lift off the bottom after the worst housing slump since the 1930s as buyers compete for a tight supply of available properties. At the end of June, 2.39 million previously owned homes were available for sale, 24 percent fewer than a year earlier, the Realtors said. “The turnaround in home prices feels pretty broad,” Celia Chen, a housing economist at Moody’s Analytics in West Chester, Pennsylvania, said yesterday. “There are still risks that home prices will dip a little more before they start appreciating with any consistency,”
One threat to home values is the so-called shadow inventory of delinquent properties that have yet to enter the market. U.S. foreclosure starts rose 6 percent last month from July 2011, Irvine, California-based data provider RealtyTrac Inc. said today.

U.S. Consumer Comfort Drops to Two-Month Low on Economy Concern (Source: Bloomberg)
Consumer confidence in the U.S. fell this week to the lowest level in two months as Americans became more discouraged about the economy. The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index dropped to minus 41.9 in the period ended Aug. 5 from minus 39.7. The gauge hasn’t climbed since the end of June. Americans’ view of the economy fell to the lowest level since February. Greater discontent about the economy was accompanied by dimmer views of personal finances and the buying climate, a sign consumer spending will be slow to pick up. A recent increase in gasoline prices and scant improvement in the labor market are also restraining confidence among lower-income households. “The American public is downright sour on their own economic prospects and those of the nation as a whole due to the growing labor slack in the economy,” said Joseph Brusuelas, a senior economist at Bloomberg LP in New York. The share of respondents in the Bloomberg survey who rated the economy as “poor” climbed this week to a seventh-month high.
Another report today showed fewer Americans filed applications for unemployment benefits last week, a sign the labor market may keep improving after job growth picked up in July. Jobless claims fell by 6,000 to 361,000 in the week ended Aug. 4, the Labor Department said. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey called for an increase to 370,000. Stocks fell as concern about Europe’s economy. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index dropped 0.1 percent to 1,400.97 at 9:37 a.m. in New York.

Trade Deficit in the U.S. Shrank More Than Forecast in June (Source: Bloomberg)
The U.S. trade deficit narrowed more than forecast in June as the biggest drop in crude oil prices in more than three years helped cut the nation’s import bill. The gap shrank 11 percent to $42.9 billion, the smallest since December 2010, from $48 billion in May, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. The median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of 69 economists called for the deficit to shrink to $47.5 billion. Exports climbed to a record on demand for autos and industrial engines. The better-than-projected reading may help boost second- quarter growth figures when the government revises the data later this month. The recent rebound in oil prices and slowing economies in Europe and Asia mean the deficit will probably not keep contracting, making it more difficult for trade to aid the economic expansion.
"For all the talk about the troubles in Europe and China slowing, what’s going on around the world is not make or break for the U.S. recovery,” said Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Pierpont Securities LLC in Stamford, Connecticut. “This report is a positive in the sense that growth in the first half of the year was a little better than reported.”

What’s Fed to Do as 15 of 18 Banks Fixing Libor Aren’t American (Source: Bloomberg)
Mark Calabria at the Cato Institute usually isn’t shy about criticizing Timothy F. Geithner. Yet he says it was ultimately up to the British to deal with the manipulation of Libor, as only three of the 18 banks that set the London interbank offered rate are based in the U.S. Geithner was president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in 2008 when he learned about banks under-reporting Libor, the global benchmark for $500 trillion of securities. He sent a memo in June of that year to Bank of England Governor Mervyn King raising concerns and recommending changes in how the rate is calculated. Little has been done to address the issue since, and King said last month that he only just learned of wrongdoing and Geithner didn’t highlight malpractice. “Geithner is not the primary person in the world responsible for Libor,” said Calabria, Cato’s director of financial-regulation studies in Washington and a former Senate Banking Committee aide.
“There were items on that memo that were absolutely first and last the responsibility of the British Bankers’ Association and by extension the Bank of England.” Four years after Geithner sent his recommendations, Barclays Plc (BARC) was fined a record 290 million pounds ($453 million) for rigging borrowing costs, and regulators in both countries have defended their reaction to the manipulation. The failure to work together across jurisdictions highlights the need for better collaboration among policy makers and regulators worldwide, said Kevin Hassett, a director of economic policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington.

Hong Kong Economic Growth Forecast Slowest Since 2009 (Source: Bloomberg)
Hong Kong’s economy probably grew at close to the slowest pace since the financial crisis, as record unemployment in the euro area hurt exports and Chinese tourists spent less on luxury goods. Second-quarter gross domestic product rose 1.2 percent from a year earlier, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of 15 economists ahead of data due today. Expansion was 0.4 percent in the first quarter, down from 3 percent in the previous three months and 4.4 percent in the third quarter. The stalling economy adds to the challenges facing Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying, who took office on July 1 vowing to build a more equitable society as the territory’s wealth gap widened to a record. Thousands of residents have taken to the streets to demand higher minimum wages, direct leadership elections by 2017 and a halt to plans for “patriotic” education in primary schools.
“It’s likely that economic growth will still be as weak as, or even worse than, last quarter,” said Kevin Lai, a Hong Kong- based economist at Daiwa Capital Markets Ltd., whose forecast for 0.5 percent expansion is the second lowest. “One, and perhaps the only, way to bolster the economy is investment in infrastructure but I haven’t seen any increase coming there. What we need to hope for is a rebound in the global economy.”

Japan Growth Seen Slowing to Half Previous Pace as Exports Wane (Source: Bloomberg)
Japan’s economy probably grew last quarter at half the pace of the previous three months, a slowdown analysts predict is deepening as Europe’s debt crisis and the yen’s gains erode exports. Gross domestic product expanded an annualized 2.3 percent in the three months through June, compared with 4.7 percent in the first quarter, according to the median estimate of 24 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The Cabinet Office will release the report on Aug. 13. The slump may deepen this quarter, with exporters from Sony Corp. (6758) to Canon Inc. (7751) in the past month cutting profit projections because of waning overseas growth. As Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda prepares to push a sales-tax increase through the Diet, pressure may rise on policy makers to consider a supplementary budget and monetary stimulus to shore up domestic demand.
“We need to be alert to the downside risks to the economy, especially in the third quarter,” as the global slump spills over to Japan, said Kohei Okazaki, an economist at Nomura Securities Co. in Tokyo, a unit of Japan’s largest brokerage. “There’s a possibility monetary and fiscal stimulus will be implemented by the end of the year.”

Housewives With Frying Pans Protest Japan Tax Hike as Debt Soars (Source: Bloomberg)
About 200 housewives marched down a shopping street in central Tokyo, beating pans with ladles and shouting slogans criticizing a government plan to double Japan’s 5 percent consumption tax. “Ordinary people like us have a limited amount of money we can spend each month,” said Natsuyo Makabe, a protester who took part in three demonstrations in June against the tax as well as nuclear energy and a free-trade pact. “Ninety-nine percent of the public will have to cut back on what they buy.” The apron protesters, as they are known, argue that a tax increase would crimp household budgets just when the economy can’t withstand a drop in consumption, Bloomberg Businessweek reports in its Aug. 13 issue. They say it’s a bad time for Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda to rein in public debt that will be over 230 percent of national output this year, the biggest anywhere. The tax plan has already cleared the lower house of Japan’s Parliament, and Noda this week brokered a deal to bring the bill to the upper house today.
Japan’s debt is ballooning as its population is aging and shrinking, meaning there are only 2.4 working-age Japanese to support one senior citizen now, compared with 9.1 in 1965. If he gets this tax issue wrong, Noda could throttle consumption, reduce tax revenue, and still leave Japan deep in debt. If the tax increase is defeated, the debt problem remains unsolved.

Singapore GDP Falls Less Than Earlier Estimated on Manufacturing (Source: Bloomberg)
Singapore’s economy shrank less than initially estimated last quarter as pharmaceutical output countered declining electronics manufacturing, even as Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis led the government to cut growth forecasts. Gross domestic product fell an annualized 0.7 percent in the second quarter from the previous three months, when it expanded a revised 9.5 percent, the Trade Ministry said in a statement today. That compares with a July preliminary estimate of a 1.1 percent contraction and the median prediction of a 0.5 percent gain in a Bloomberg News survey of 11 economists.
The contraction prompted the Singapore government this week to trim its prediction for 2012 growth to 1.5 percent to 2.5 percent, from an earlier forecast for an expansion of as much as 3 percent. Policy makers across the world are girding for a deeper slowdown from Europe’s turmoil, with Asian central banks from China to South Korea and the Philippines cutting interest rates last month, and adding pressure on Singapore to ease monetary policy. “The second half will be choppy for Singapore as the U.S. faces fiscal headwinds, Europe’s recession deepens, and China slows down,” Chua Hak Bin, an economist in Singapore at Bank of America’s Merrill Lynch division, said before the report. “Domestic demand is sufficient to keep the economy afloat and Singapore will avoid going into a recession but given the growth risks, we think the central bank could normalize and ease” its monetary policy stance, he said.

India Industrial Output Slides in Sign Economy Is Faltering (Source: Bloomberg)
Indian industrial production slid in June for the third time in four months, with output of capital goods plunging the most on record, adding to signs of faltering growth in Asia’s third-largest economy. Production at factories, utilities and mines declined 1.8 percent from a year earlier, after a revised 2.5 percent rise in May, the Central Statistical Office said in New Delhi today. The median of 27 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey was for a 0.4 percent climb. Capital goods output, an indication of investment in plants and machinery, slid 27.9 percent. Indian manufacturing has been subdued in recent months as inflation above 7 percent saps domestic demand and Europe’s debt crisis crimps exports. Price pressures from a drop in the rupee and the impact of a weak monsoon on crops forced the central bank to leave interest rates unchanged in July, breaking with a wave of cuts in borrowing costs from China to Brazil to Europe.
“The negative trend coming in between a looming drought- like situation is very, very worrying,” said Brinda Jagirdar, an economist at State Bank of India in Mumbai. “Our problems are compounding. We need quick and decisive policy actions to revive growth, otherwise we’ll see a severe collapse.” The rupee, which has slumped about 18 percent against the dollar in the past 12 months, strengthened 0.2 percent to 55.295 per dollar at the 5 p.m. close in Mumbai. The BSE India Sensitive Index of stocks pared earlier gains and fell 0.2 percent. The yield on the 8.15 percent government bond due in June 2022 was little changed at 8.14 percent.

London Boom Pushes U.K. House Prices to Four-Year High (Source: Bloomberg)
U.K. house prices increased to a four-year high in July as London’s booming property market widened its divergence with the rest of the country, Acadametrics Ltd. said. The average cost of a home in England and Wales rose 0.2 percent from June to 225,769 pounds ($353,000), the most since June 2008, Acadametrics and LSL Property Services Plc said in a report published in London today. Prices climbed 3.2 percent from a year earlier. “This month we report stunning growth in some London boroughs,” Peter Williams, chairman of Acadametrics, said in a statement. “The Greater London housing market is another country compared with the remainder of the U.K.” and “is likely to continue to move further out of line with all or most of the market in the rest of England and Wales.”
The figures highlight how the British capital is skewing the national picture at a time when mortgage rationing and job losses are curbing demand for homes elsewhere in Britain. The Bank of England said this week that overall house prices have remained “broadly unchanged” in the past two years and that, adjusted for inflation, they have actually declined. London prices rose 11.8 percent in June from a year earlier, driven by gains of 38 percent in Kensington and Chelsea, 21 percent in Camden and 20 percent in Westminster, Acadametrics said. Such increases dwarfed gains of 3.6 percent for England and Wales as a whole and masked price drops recorded in the north of England, the West Midlands and the northwest.

U.K. Goods-Trade Gap Widens to Record as Exports Fall: Economy (Source: Bloomberg)
Britain’s trade deficit widened to a record in the second quarter as the impact of the euro-area debt crisis and cooling global growth sapped demand for exports. The goods-trade gap increased to 28.3 billion pounds ($44.3 billion pounds) from 25 billion pounds in the previous quarter, the Office for National Statistics said today in London. Exports fell 4.9 percent, while imports slipped 0.5 percent. In June, the deficit widened more than economists forecast to 10.1 billion pounds, partly due to the impact of public holidays. The report follows comments from the Bank of England yesterday that the pound’s appreciation over the past year may hamper exports at a time when slowing global expansion is undercutting demand. The U.K. economy shrank 0.7 percent in the second quarter, and the central bank cut its growth forecasts, citing the turmoil in the euro area, Britain’s biggest trading partner, and the government’s fiscal squeeze.
“We’ve seen signs of slower growth more generally across the world, not just in the euro zone, and that seems to be affecting the U.K.,” said Vicky Redwood, an economist at Capital Economics Ltd. in London and a former central bank official. “The main risk to the U.K. export market is still from Europe. The economy will recover in the third quarter, but there’s still a risk of a triple-dip recession.”

20120810 0955 Global Commodities Related News.

Commodity Weather Group – Midwest Dryness to Persist in September (Source:CME)
Drier than normal conditions likely will continue in most of the U.S. Midwest in September, forecaster Commodity Weather Group said, as a historic drought that’s sent corn and soybean futures to all-time highs persists into the fall. The outlook suggests a reduced threat of early frost or rain-delayed harvest in September, the forecaster said. Still, the damage to U.S. crops has already been done with the searing heat of the past two months. Citing the drought, Commodity Weather Group cut its projected average U.S. corn yield to 125.9 bushels an acre, down 7% from a July estimate. The drought will cause the abandonment of more corn than usual, the firm said, with an estimated 12% of total planted acres going unharvested, compared to 8% to 10% typically.
Concern over shrinking harvest prospects sent CME Group grain futures up sharply in trading August 9. December corn futures rose 7 ¼ cents to $8.23 ¾ a bushel, a record high settlement for any December contract. November soybean futures rose 50 cents to $16.31 ¼ a bushel.

Global Food Reserves Falling as Drought Wilts Crops (Source: Bloomberg)
Stockpiles of the biggest crops will decline for a third year as drought parches fields across three continents, raising food-import costs already forecast by the United Nations to reach a near-record $1.24 trillion. Combined inventories of corn, wheat, soybeans and rice will drop 1.8 percent to a four-year low before harvests in 2013, the U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates. Crops in the U.S., the biggest exporter, are in the worst condition since 1988, heat waves are battering European crops and India’s monsoon rainfall already is 20 percent below normal. The International Grains Council began July by forecasting record harvests. It ended with a prediction for a 2 percent drop in output.
The speed of the destruction drove corn prices to a record today and soybean prices to an all-time high last month, while wheat went to a four-year high. For investors, crops are the best-performing commodities this year, and Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Macquarie Group Ltd. and Credit Suisse Group AG say the trend will continue. An index of 55 food items tracked by the United Nations’ Food & Agriculture Organization jumped 6.2 percent in July, the biggest increase since November 2009, the Rome-based agency reported today, less than two years after record prices pushed 44 million people into extreme poverty and contributed to uprisings in North Africa and the Middle East. “People thought we were going to be swimming in corn by the end of the year,” said Kelly Wiesbrock, who helps manage $1.3 billion of assets for Harvest Capital Strategies, a San Francisco-based hedge fund. “Then the month of June hit and into July, and it’s just been a train wreck.”

Top Commodities
Wheat gained 42 percent to $9.27 a bushel this year on the Chicago Board of Trade, soybeans appreciated 35 percent to $16.3125 a bushel, and corn rose 27 percent to $8.2375 a bushel, after today touching a record $8.2975. They were the biggest advances in the Standard & Poor’s GSCI Spot Index of 24 raw materials, which increased 2.6 percent in 2012. The U.S. drought in June was the widest since December 1956 and the past 12 months were the hottest on record, weather data show. While the USDA anticipated a record harvest as recently as June, it cut the domestic corn forecast by 12 percent on July 11, the most since at least 1990. The estimate will be reduced again when the department reports Aug. 10, according to the average of 29 analyst forecasts compiled by Bloomberg.
The American drought is spreading beyond agriculture into power and fuel production. U.S. nuclear plants’ output on July 27 was the lowest for the day since 2001 because water was too hot to be an effective coolant, government data show. Parched conditions will spread into North Dakota and central Texas through October and last across the Midwest, the main growing region, the Camp Springs, Maryland-based Climate Prediction Center said Aug. 2.

Worst Drought Covers Nearly One-Fourth of Contiguous U.S. (Source: Bloomberg)
The two worst levels of drought now grip nearly one-fourth of the lower 48 states, the U.S. Drought Monitor reported. About 24.1 percent of the region was suffering extreme or exceptional drought in the week ended Aug. 7, up from 22.3 percent in the previous period and 18.3 percent last year, according to the monitor, based in Lincoln, Nebraska. While there has been some improvement in the drought in the Midwest, that wasn’t the case in the Great Plains, said Mark Svoboda of the National Drought Mitigation Center in Lincoln. “Maybe the drought overall is improving but the areas hardest hit in the corn and bean belt have intensified,” Svoboda said by telephone. The drought has helped push corn prices to a record. World food prices have surged 6.2 percent as dryness has also gripped Russia and below-average monsoon rains fell in India.
The primary corn and soybean agriculture areas in the U.S. had their sixth-driest April-July growing season in records dating back to 1895, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said yesterday. Svoboda said the amount of corn-growing area affected by the two worst categories of drought has jumped to 53 percent from 14 percent in the past three weeks. For beans, it has increased to 50 percent from 16.

DTN Closing Grain Comments 08/09 15:00 : Soybeans Explode Higher Ahead of USDA Reports  (Source:CME)
The soybean market closed sharply higher pulling the other grains along for the ride. It appears traders built in bullish numbers, setting up a weaker session if USDA's numbers vary dramatically from pre-report estimates.

Pro Farmer: After the Bell Wheat Recap (Source:CME)
Wheat futures posted double-digit gains in Chicago and Minneapolis, while Kansas City wheat finished with slightly lesser gains. Wheat futures were supported by spillover from the corn market and a stronger-than-anticipated weekly export sales figure. That was enough to offset strength in the U.S. dollar index.

Wheat Market Recap Report  (Source:CME)
September Wheat finished up 13 3/4 at 913, 6 1/2 off the high and 15 up from the low. December Wheat closed up 13 1/2 at 927. This was 14 1/2 up from the low and 5 3/4 off the high. Chicago September wheat traded sharply higher into the close and posted a new weekly high for the move. Kansas City and Minneapolis traded higher with Chicago. The wheat market was supported by a stronger corn market today and on thoughts that the USDA will revise Black Sea production and global wheat ending stocks lower on tomorrow's report. Russia is expected to produce 45 million tonnes of wheat vs. the current USDA estimate of 49 million tons. The trade also expects slight declines in wheat production for Ukraine and Kazakhstan tomorrow morning. Pakistan has agreed to a 1 million tonne wheat barter agreement with Iran. Pakistan will ship the wheat to Iran in exchange for fertilizer and iron ore. Weekly exports sales were supportive this morning with sales for wheat, at 665,300 tonnes. Cumulative wheat sales stand at 29.3% of the USDA forecast for 2012/2013 marketing year versus a 5 year average of 35.2%. Sales of 533,000 metric tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast. September Oats closed up 13 3/4 at 389 1/2. This was 12 up from the low and 4 1/2 off the high.

Pro Farmer: After the Bell Corn Recap (Source:CME)
Corn futures saw an upside day of trade and closed mid-to high-range with gains 5 to 10 cents in the September through July 2013 contracts. Deferred months saw lighter gains. Traders displayed greater risk appetite as they readied for USDA reports tomorrow. Pre-report expectations are for USDA to slash its 2012 corn production estimate by nearly 2 billion bu. from July to 10.971 billion bu. with a national average yield of 126.2 bu. per acre.

Corn Market Recap for 8/9/2012 (Source:CME)
September Corn finished up 7 3/4 at 818 1/2, 7 1/2 off the high and 8 1/2 up from the low. December Corn closed up 6 1/4 at 822 3/4. This was 7 up from the low and 7 off the high. December corn traded higher into the close but settled off session highs. The new crop contract posted a new all-time high at 8.29 3/4 before backing off as traders look ahead to tomorrows critical USDA report. The trade expects the USDA to cut the average US corn yield to 127 bushels/acre leaving production near 11 billion bushels. Total usage last month was projected at 12.72 billion bushels. Traders continue to hear reports of worse than expected yields as harvest moves north. Export sales were impressive this morning but the jump in sales was anticipated after the market saw the large purchase by Mexico last week. Total net weekly export sales for the week ending August 2nd came in at 1.103 million tonnes. Sales of 269,000 tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast. The trade is expecting a slightly decrease in the 2011/12 export forecast to compensate for the slower export pace. September Rice finished up 0.235 at 15.92, equal to the high and equal to the low.

CropCAST - Drought May Send Corn Yields to 17-year Low (Source:CME)
U.S. farmers may generate their poorest corn yields in 17 years because of severe drought, and there appears to be little relief in sight for parched Midwest crops this month, according to CropCAST/MDA EarthSat Weather. For the rest of August, a “fairly warm and dry” pattern is expected to persist in the Midwest, though conditions won’t be as extreme as in July, Kyle Tarpley, CropCAST’s senior ag meteorologist, said in an Aug. 7 report. Nationwide, corn yields will average an estimated 125 bushels an acre, Tarpley said, citing results from a CropCAST tour of Midwest farmland in late July. That would be the lowest average yield since 113.5 bushels an acre in 1995. CropCAST projected an average soybean yield of 36 bushels an acre, a nine-year low.
Concern over shrinking harvest prospects sent CME Group grain futures up sharply in trading August 9. December corn futures rose 7 ¼ cents to $8.23 ¾ a bushel, a record high settlement for any December contract. November soybean futures rose 50 cents to $16.31 ¼ a bushel.

Corn Leads U.S. Crop Surge as Drought Seen Eroding Grain Output (Source: Bloomberg)
Corn surged to a record, leading rallies in soybeans and wheat, on mounting signs that the worst U.S. drought since 1956 will erode production from farmers that are the world’s largest exporters of the crops.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture, in a report tomorrow, probably will cut its domestic corn-crop forecast to 10.929 billion bushels, the smallest in six years, according to the average estimate of 29 analysts in a Bloomberg survey. That would be down 16 percent from a July forecast, the biggest August reduction since 1974. The estimate for soybeans may drop 8.3 percent to 2.796 billion bushels, the smallest since 2007. Corn prices through yesterday were up 61 percent since mid- June and soybeans rallied 20 percent, while the government rated the condition of the U.S. crop on Aug. 3 as the worst since 1988. Output threats are being compounded by dry weather in Russia and below-average monsoon rains in India. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is among the banks forecasting prices will keep rising, and the United Nations reported today the biggest gain in global food costs since 2009.
“This year’s crops are a disaster,” Dale Schultz, the buyer-relations manager for AgWest Commodities LLC in Holdrege, Nebraska, said in a telephone interview. “We have to raise prices and reduce demand immediately to prevent a real shortage developing in January or February. There is so much competition for every bushel of grain this year.”

U.S. use of corn for ethanol is high but hyped
--Gerard Wynn  is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own--
LONDON, Aug 8 (Reuters) - The U.S. ethanol industry is right to complain that its consumption of corn is routinely exaggerated, by opponents of biofuel and in wider commentary, but it still consumes enough to make a minimum blending mandate look vulnerable.
A U.S. drought and shrinking corn yields have thrown a focus once more on the role of biofuels, four years after a rise in grain prices led to a food-versus-fuel debate and riots in developing countries.

GRAINS-Soybeans, corn rise for second session, USDA report eyed
SYDNEY, Aug 9 (Reuters) - U.S. soybeans extended gains into a second session as the market readied for a supply and demand report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, while weather concerns for new-crop oilseed production fed bullish sentiment in grains.
"We do have the USDA numbers coming out tomorrow night, and the market is trying to position itself for that," Michael Creed, agribusiness economist at National Australia Bank said.

India's Aug 1 grains stocks well above targets
NEW DELHI, Aug 9 (Reuters) - India's wheat stocks at government warehouses on Aug. 1 were 47.5 million tonnes, more than three times the official target of 17.1 million tonnes for the quarter ending September, government sources said on Thursday.
Rice inventory for the same period was 28.5 million tonnes against a target of 9.8 million tonnes.

Bangladesh extends ban on most rice exports
DHAKA, Aug 9 (Reuters) - Bangladesh has extended a ban on the export of most varieties of rice until next June, the commerce secretary said on Thursday, backtracking on a plan to end the restriction.
Bangladesh, the world's fourth-biggest rice producer, banned overseas shipments of some common varieties in May 2008 following a spike in prices. It banned all exports a year later.

Brazil grain exporters seek court help against port strike
SAO PAULO, Aug 8 (Reuters) - Brazilian soy and corn exporters are seeking help from the local courts to guarantee clearance documents from striking inspection  agents at the country's main ports, the grain exporters association Anec said on Wednesday.
Food inspectors from the agriculture ministry went on strike on Monday over better pay and have so far had only limited effect on the flow of bulk commodities through Brazilian ports, but Anec President Sergio Mendes told Reuters that there are real risks of food commodities exports being held up.

Australia 11/12 wheat exports seen at 22.5 mln tonnes
Aug 8 (Reuters) - Following are selected highlights from a report issued by a U.S. Department of Agriculture attache in Australia:
"Post's 2011/12 grain estimates were revised in line with official Government of Australia statistics and in response to the changing world grain market outlook. Exports of rain-affected wheat have surged in response to strong world feedgrain prices, and the estimate for total wheat exports in 2011/12 was increased to 22.5 million tonnes. The estimate for 2011/12 barley exports was raised to 5 million tonnes tonnes.

Russia sees no need for grain export tariffs in 2012
MOSCOW, Aug 8 (Reuters) - Russian Deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich said on Wednesday that Russia had no grounds to ban grain exports but did not rule out protective export tariffs after the end of the 2012 calendar year.
Dvorkovich said Russia's new crop and stocks would provide enough grain to cover domestic requirements. He also reiterated the government's forecasts of 75-80 million tonnes of grain, with an exportable surplus of 10-12 million tonnes.

Russia, Ukraine, Kazakh wheat crop to fall 30 pct
LONDON, Aug 8 (Reuters) - Wheat production from Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan will drop 30 percent from last year because of a drought, a Reuters poll found, fanning fears of a global food price scare.
The median forecast from analysts and traders puts the aggregate crop for the three Black Sea exporting countries at around 70 million tonnes versus around 100 million tonnes last year. The region normally supplies around a quarter of world wheat export volumes.

Argentine wheat takes beating in turf war against corn
BUENOS AIRES, Aug 8 (Reuters) - Grains powerhouse Argentina could produce a record corn harvest in the upcoming season while wheat output shrivels, a trend that will likely deepen over the years ahead as growers balance government policy risk against zooming market demand.
A severe drought in the U.S. Midwest has put No. 2 global corn supplier Argentina in the spotlight at a time of increasing world food consumption.

SOFTS-Raw sugar nudges up, eyes on Brazil harvest, coffee firm
LONDON, Aug 9 (Reuters) - Raw sugar futures on ICE edged higher as harvest pressure from top producer Brazil capped gains, while arabica coffee and cocoa futures were firm. Raw sugar futures edged a off 5-week low in early trade, weighed down by dealers' anticipation that the latest data on Brazil's cane crush due later this session would show rapid progress.

Brazil's Cosan posts 17.1 mln reais loss on weak cane harvest
SAO PAULO, Aug 8 (Reuters) - Brazil's largest sugar and ethanol producer Cosan  recorded a loss in the first quarter of its 2013 fiscal year after a late start to the sugarcane harvest led to lower sales of sweeteners and vehicle fuels, the company said on Wednesday.
Cosan said in a securities filing its fiscal first quarter 2013 loss was 17.1 million reais ($8.47 million) compared with an adjusted profit of 167.5 million reais a year earlier. Cosan's fiscal first quarter 2013 ended on June 30, 2012.

Arab unrest boosts Egyptian white sugar exports
LONDON, Aug 8 (Reuters) - Civil unrest in the Middle East is providing opportunities for Egypt, a major importer of raw sugar, to export refined sugar to markets such as Libya, Sudan and potentially Syria, trade sources said.
Egypt, which imports raws primarily from Brazil, has increased its refining capacity and also has the advantage of lower freight costs in supplying rising demand for high-quality refined sugar in nearby countries.

India's sugar body upbeat on output, export curbs loom
NEW DELHI, Aug 8 (Reuters) - India's sugar industry on Wednesday gave an upbeat assessment of next year's production despite a drought as it tried to avoid export curbs which government sources said New Delhi is contemplating as part of steps to bolster domestic supplies.
India, the world's top sugar consumer and the biggest producer behind Brazil, has also started discussing dropping a 10 percent import duty to calm local prices although traders and analysts do not see India tiptoeing to imports for now.

Oil Heads for Second Weekly Gain as U.S. Jobless Claims Decline (Source: Bloomberg)
Oil headed for a second weekly gain in New York after applications for unemployment relief unexpectedly declined last week in the U.S., the world’s biggest consumer of crude. Futures were little changed and poised for a weekly increase of 2.2 percent. That would be the most since the seven days ended July 20. Jobless claims dropped by 6,000 to 361,000 in the week ended Aug. 4, Labor Department figures showed yesterday. The median forecast of 43 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News called for an increase to 370,000. A depression formed in the Atlantic and may become Tropical Storm Gordon today, the National Hurricane Center said. “The employment situation seems to have stabilized,” David Lennox, an analyst at Fat Prophets in Sydney, said in a telephone interview today. “Perhaps the gloom that we’ve seen over the last few years may be lifting.”
Oil for September delivery was down 2 cents at $93.34 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 10:35 a.m. Sydney time after climbing 1 cent yesterday. Prices are 5.5 percent lower since the start of the year. Brent crude for September settlement was at $113.12 a barrel, down 10 cents, on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The European benchmark’s premium to West Texas Intermediate was at $19.70. It closed at $19.86 yesterday, the widest gap since April.

OIL-Oil up at $112.75 on supply fears, stimulus hopes
LONDON, Aug 9 (Reuters) - Oil prices rose to around $112.75 a barrel, buoyed  by supply disruptions in the Gulf of Mexico and lower Brent output along with disappointing data from China, which raised hopes in some quarters of further monetary stimulus there.
"The general mood is bullish - any dip is still being used as a buying opportunity," said Carsten Fritsch, an energy analyst at Commerzbank in Frankfurt. "Given the supply risk, with falling North Sea output and the closure of three oil ports in Mexico, all this should lend support to prices."

Buzzard, the field that sets the world oil price
--John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own--
LONDON, Aug 8 (Reuters) - As output from other fields in the North Sea declines, global oil prices are increasing being driven by production problems and maintenance at a single, mid-sized field 60 miles northeast off the coast of Aberdeen in Scotland.
Buzzard, owned and operated by Nexen, which has a 43 percent stake, with minority shares owned by Suncor (30 percent), BG Group (22 percent) and Edinburgh Oil and Gas (5 percent), has assumed outsized importance in setting oil prices around the world.

Saudi to supply full Sept crude to 3 Asia buyers -sources
TOKYO, Aug 9 (Reuters) - Top crude exporter Saudi Arabia will supply full contracted volumes of crude to at least four Asian term buyers in September, unchanged from August, industry sources familiar with the matter said on Thursday.
The move had been expected, as the OPEC kingpin has supplied full contractual volumes to most Asian buyers since late 2009.  "There was no cut, and (the Saudis) did not make any changes on the volumes for each grade," one source said.

China's July crude runs up 1.1 pct -stats bureau
BEIJING, Aug 9 (Reuters) - China's refinery throughput inched up 1.1 percent in July, reversing a run of declines for three straight months, but was the second lowest this year as demand stayed tepid in the world's second-largest oil consumer.
The National Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday that China processed 37.6 million tonnes, or 8.85 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil in July, up 1.1 percent from a year earlier. On a daily basis it was 1 percent, or 90,000 bpd, higher than the 8.76 million bpd in June.

China Increases Fuel Prices for First Time in Five Months (Source: Bloomberg)
China, the world’s second-biggest oil consumer, increased gasoline and diesel prices for the first time since March after global crude costs climbed. The maximum at which gasoline can be sold to motorists will rise by 390 yuan ($61) a metric ton and diesel by 370 yuan starting today, the National Development and Reform Commission said in a statement on its website yesterday. The pump price of 90-RON China III gasoline in Beijing will increase about 4.3 percent to 9,490 yuan a ton, or $4.27 a U.S. gallon, according to Bloomberg calculations from NDRC data. The China III specification is similar to the Euro III fuel standard.
China is raising fuel prices as it faces economic growth that slowed to 7.6 percent in the second quarter, the weakest pace in more than three years. The nation cut fuel costs three times between May and July, helping truckers and motorists with the lowest pump prices since December 2010. Inflation cooled for a fourth straight month in July to 1.8 percent, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed yesterday. “This is the first time the NDRC increased fuel prices in a timely fashion once the threshold for doing so was reached, probably because August is not a month of peak consumption and inflation pressure has eased,” C1 Energy, a Shanghai-based commodity researcher that correctly predicted the price change before the official announcement, said on its website.

Gold Bulls Strengthen on Outlook for Additional Stimulus (Source: Bloomberg)
Gold traders are the most bullish in five weeks as investors expanded their bullion holdings near a record on mounting speculation that central banks will have to do more to bolster economic growth. Fifteen of 30 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg said they expect prices to rise next week and eight were bearish. A further seven were neutral, making the proportion of bulls the highest since July 6. Investors bought about $850 million of gold through exchange-traded products this month, taking the total of 2,411.7 metric tons to within 0.1 percent of the all- time high set July 5, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
China’s industrial-production growth weakened in July and U.S. and European manufacturing contracted. The Federal Reserve pledged to do more if needed on Aug. 1 and the European Central Bank promised last month to do “whatever it takes” to preserve the euro. Lower interest rates increase the allure of gold, which generally earns investors returns only through price gains. Bullion rose 70 percent as the Fed bought $2.3 trillion of debt in two rounds of quantitative easing through June 2011. “More stimulus or money printing is almost certain given the levels of debt out there which is slowing down economic growth,” said Mark O’Byrne, the executive director of Dublin- based GoldCore Ltd., a brokerage that sells and stores everything from quarter-ounce British Sovereigns to 400-ounce bars. “That should be supportive of gold prices.”

20120810 0954 Soy Oil & Palm Oil Related News.

ITS CPO export down 1.8% to 357,372 tonnes for the period of 1~10 Aug 2012.
SGS CPO export up 6.8% to 354,614 tonnes for the period of 1~10 Aug 2012.

MPOB Official Data for the month of Jul 2012 vs Jun 2012
Exports down 15.3% to 1.3 million tonnes
Stocks up 17.6% to 2 million tonnes
Output up 15.05% to 1.69 million tonnes

Pro Farmer: After the Bell Soybean Recap (Source:CME)
Soybean futures extended gains as the day progressed and ended 42 3/4 to 64 1/2 cents higher in the August through January contracts. Deferred month contracts saw gains mostly in the teens to 20s. Soymeal and soyoil closed with strong gains. As traders readied for USDA reports that are expected to confirm tight old- and new-crop supplies, they reevaluated if prices have achieved sufficient supply rationing.

Soybean Complex Market Recap (Source:CME)
August Soybeans finished up 64 1/2 at 1694 1/2, 1/2 off the high and 60 3/4 up from the low. November Soybeans closed up 50 at 1631 1/4. This was 54 3/4 up from the low and 1 3/4 off the high. August Soymeal closed up 16.8 at 538.7. This was 18.7 up from the low and 2.4 off the high. August Soybean Oil finished up 0.81 at 52.39, equal to the high and 0.85 up from the low. November soybeans traded sharply higher into the close ahead of the USDA report tomorrow. August soybeans settled just under 1700. The trade expects the USDA to cut the average US soybean yield to near 37 bushels/acre in tomorrow's USDA report. The weather forecast looks slightly better to finish this week and into next week with scattered showers in the central and eastern Midwest. Temperatures are expected to cool but the western and southwestern Midwest could remain warmer and drier next week adding stress to soybeans setting pods. Soybeans bounced this morning after it was reported that US exporters sold 165,000 tonnes of US Soybeans to China overnight. Exports sales were supportive this morning despite coming in just shy of market expectations. Total net weekly export sales for the week ending August 2nd came in at 300,400 tonnes. This was slightly lower than market expectations but sales remain well ahead of the USDA pace. Soybean sales totaled 211,700 tonnes and meal sales are expected to accelerate in the 4th quarter as South American supplies deteriorate. Finally, total oil sales came in at 12,900 tonnes.

VEGOILS-Palm oil edges up ahead of industry data
SINGAPORE, Aug 9 (Reuters) - Malaysian crude palm oil futures bounced from a near 8-week low hit the previous day, although traders remained cautious ahead of a slew of key industry reports that could stir more market volatility.
"(Palm oil) futures are a little bit oversold so we are expecting some technical pullback. But upside potential is very limited as long as Malaysian stocks remain on the high side," said a trader with a local commodities brokerage in Malaysia.

Brazil meat producers want to import Bolivian soy-sources
SAO PAULO, Aug 8 (Reuters) - Meat producers in Brazil's Mato Grosso do Sul state are lobbying the government to approve soy imports from neighboring Bolivia after drought shrank supplies in the world's No. 2 grower, a local official and analysts said on Wednesday.
Farmers want some 300,000 tonnes of Bolivian soybeans to feed their livestock, mostly pigs, a sign that Brazil, the world's top exporter of beef and poultry and growing exporter of pork, suffers from a lack of agricultural planning.