Monday, July 26, 2010

20100726 1823 FCPO EOD Daily Chart Study.

FCPO closed : 2473, changed : -25 points, volume : lower.
Bollinger band reading : correction upside biased.
MACD Histrogram : turned downward, buyer profit taking continue.
Support : 2470, 2450, 2400 level.
Resistant : 2500, 2520, 2550 level.
Comment :
Profit taking activities continue to take place on FCPO that closed lower in lesser volume traded following both cargo surveyor announced a negative export figures. Daily chart shows that market opened and tested higher ground but immediately face selling pressure pushing price down all the way to closed almost at the low of the day. But nevertheless, market is still having a correction range bound upside biased market outlook.
When to buy : buy at support or weakness with quick cut loss and profit target.
When to sell : sell at resistant or strength with quick cut loss and profit target.

20100726 1748 FKLI EOD Daily Chart Study.

FKLI closed : 1355, changed : +1 point, volume : higher.
Bollinger band reading : upside biased.
MACD Histrogram : , buyer position remained intact.
Support : 1350, 1345, 1337 level.
Resistant : 1360, 1375, 1385 level.
Comment :
Marginal gain FKLI traded within a 8.5 point range market in better volume transaction after regional market having mixed development and also switching month rollover activities. Daily chart wise, market opened and tested higher but softening downward with the outlook still suggesting a upside biased market development.
When to buy : buy at support or weakness with quick cut loss and profit target.
When to sell : sell at resistant or strength with quick cut loss and profit target.

20100726 1442 Global Economic News.

China: Banks said to see risks in 23% of USD1.1trn loans
Chinese banks may struggle to recoup about 23% of the USD1.1tn they have lent to finance local government infrastructure projects, according to a person with knowledge of data collected by the nation’s regulator. About half of all loans need to be serviced by secondary sources including guarantors because the ventures can’t generate sufficient revenue. (Bloomberg)

Taiwan: Industrial output increased 24.3% in June
Taiwan’s industrial production rose for a 10th straight month in June on increased orders for computers, mobile phones and television screens. Output climbed 24.3% from a year earlier, after rising a revised 31.0% in May. The global recovery spurred exports and factory production, sending Taiwan’s jobless rate to its lowest level in 18 months. (Bloomberg)

South Korea: Economy posted 1.5% expansion in second quarter
South Korea’s economy grew 1.5% in the second quarter from the previous 3 months, the central bank said in Seoul today. From a year earlier, GDP rose 7.2%. (Bloomberg)

India: May raise interest rates as higher prices spark protests
India’s central bank is likely to raise rates for the 4th time since March after a strike to protest rising prices brought much of the nation to a halt this month. The Reserve Bank of India will probably increase its reverse repurchase rate by a quarter point to 4.25%, all 20 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey showed. (Bloomberg)

EU: Shows strength as UK, German indicators top forecasts
The British economy grew at the fastest pace in 4 years in the second quarter and German business confidence surged to a 3-year high this month, indicating Europe’s recovery may be stronger than forecast. UK’s GDP rose 1.1% in the 3 months through June, almost twice as fast as the 0.6% gain predicted by economists. In Munich, the Ifo institute said its business climate index, based on a poll of 7,000 executives, jumped to 106.2 this month, confounding expectations of a decline. (Bloomberg)

US: Geithner says companies ‘cautious’ about hiring
Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner said US companies scarred by the financial crisis remain very “cautious” and are trying to get more productivity from current employees before hiring new ones. Job growth is “not as fast as we need” and employers “are still cautious, still very cautious,” he said in an interview. (Bloomberg)

Germany: Business confidence unexpectedly surged to a three-year high in July after exports boomed and economic growth accelerated. The Ifo institute said its business climate index, based on a survey of 7,000 executives, jumped to 106.2, the highest since July 2007, from 101.8 in June. (Source: Bloomberg)

Brazil: Fixed-rate bonds are beating inflation-linked debt for a fourth straight month , the longest streak since 2005, after central bankers confirmed investor expectations that consumer price increases are slowing. Fixed-rate bonds gained 1.2% this month, compared with a 0.9% return for notes linked to the IPCA index. (Source: Bloomberg)

Singapore: Consumer prices rose for a sixth month in June as an increase in car and electricity prices pushed transportation and housing costs higher. The consumer price index climbed 2.7% YoY. (Source: Bloomberg)

Vietnam: Inflation slows in July . Consumer prices rose 8.19% YoY this month compared to 8.69% YoY in June. (Source: Bloomberg)

20100726 1439 Malaysia Corporate News.

Bina Puri: Poised for more JVs with UEM group. Sources said Bina Puri was now close to signing a JV agreement with Iskandar Investment Bhd (IIB) to develop some 7 acres (RM500m) mixed development in Medini, one of the 5 flagship zones of Iskandar Malaysia. Bina Puri and IIB would form a SPV with them holding 80% and 20% respectively. (Source: The Edge Financial Daily)

Bland: To launch projects worth RM500m this year. Berjaya Land Bhd (BLand) will launch new projects worth more than RM500m this year to take advantage of pent-up demand for housing in the Klang Valley. The group has about 10 ongoing developments worth some RM1b and it will launch more projects next year (Source: Business Times)

Genting Malaysia: Genting NY still in running for racino deal. Genting Malaysia Bhd subsidiary Genting New York LLC is still in the running for the bid to develop and operate a video lottery facility at New York City?s Aqueduct Racetrack. Last Friday, New York Supreme Court Judge Barry Kramer ruled that the New York State Division of Lottery can continue to evaluate the final remaining contender, Genting New York, for at least one more week. (Source: The Star)

Plantation: Mardec plans South-East Asia expansion. Rubber processor Mardec Bhd plans to expand its overseas investments via new rubber processing plants and acquisition of rubber plantations in South-East Asia, said CEO Khalid Bahsoon. Mardec had allocated a capital expenditure of about RM150mil for its investments in Malaysia and overseas in the next 5 years. (Source: The Star)

Ports: Transport Minister urged to resolve congestion at NBCT. The Penang government has called on Transport Minister Datuk Seri Kong Cho Ha to resolve container cargo congestion at the North Butterworth Container Terminal (NBCT). Chief Minister Lim Guan Eng urged Kong to intervene and appoint expert advisers to the Penang Port Commission (PPC) and Penang Port Sdn Bhd (PPSB) to look into the problem. (Source: The Star)

Government sets up RM20bn fund for high impact projects
The Government has set up a special fund with an allocation of RM20bn to implement more than 50 high impact projects on government-owned land under the 10MP. Deputy Finance Minister Datuk Dr Awang Adek Hussein said the fund was to facilitate the participation of private companies in investing into the projects concerned which involves 1000-ha of government land. The areas already identified include Sungai Buloh in Selangor and Sungai Besi, which would be developed as a new economic growth centre and the most modern city after Kuala Lumpur. The projects to be developed include office complexes, administration centres, light rail transit and monorail. (Malaysian Reserve)

MISC to sell 25% of MMHE under proposed IPO
MISC will sell 408m shares, or a 25.5% stake, of its unit Malaysia Marine and Heavy Engineering Holdings Bhd (MMHE) under a proposed IPO. The IPO will involve the sale of 146m shares to institutional investors and another 262m shares of MMHE to the public, including MISC shareholders, according to a filing by MISC to Bursa Malaysia on 23 July. The proposed IPO is expected to be completed by the fourth quarter of 2010. MMHE provides heavy engineering and marine services mainly to the oil and gas sector, including marine conversion and repair service from its yard in Pasir Gudang, Johor as well as in Turkmenistan. (Malaysian Reserve)

Sarawak Energy is looking at RM6bn but Govt tags it at RM8bn
Negotiations for the purchase of the 2,400MW Bakun Dam project have come to a dispute over what its cost should entail. While the Federal Government is said to be eyeing an indicative price of RM8bn, Sarawak Energy Bhd (SEB) is looking at just RM6bn. “Nothing is in writing yet,’’ said an industry source. “The parties are just looking at an indicative price to build the models for negotiations under both the purchase and leasing scenarios.’’ Sarawak Hidro Sdn Bhd, the owner of Bakun Dam, has estimated the final cost of the project at RM7bil. In fact, the model studies may use the indicative price of RM8bn if capital and many other costs are included; it can be just RM5bil if certain costs are excluded. (StarBiz)

Offer for NSTP shares till 6 Aug
Media Prima Bhd clarified in a statement to Bursa Malaysia that its takeover offer to acquire shares in The New Straits Times Press (M) Bhd is still open for acceptances until 5pm on 6 Aug. It denied reports saying the offer was completed on 22 July. (StarBiz)

Funding boost for highways
A quarter of the RM20bn Facilitation Fund will be used to help build up to seven new highways during the 10th Malaysia Plan. The fund, announced under the 10MP in June, was meant to attract at least RM200 billion worth of private sector investments over 2011-2015. "RM5bn we're putting aside for land acquisition. Acquiring land is also part of the facilitation," said Datuk Dr Ali Hamsa, director general of the Public-Private Partnership Unit (3PU). Some of these highways are extensions to existing highways like the North-South Expressway (NSE) while some will be completely new ones. One will connect Paroi to Senawang in Negri Sembilan and onwards to KL International Airport, which will be more than 50km. Another major new highway is called the central spine, a new highway spanning the length of Peninsular Malaysia. But unlike the NSE or the East Coast Highway, it will run in the centre of the Peninsula from Kota Baru in Kelantan, down to Simpang Pelangai in Negri Sembilan. (BT)

Approach of La Nina to see CPO prices rise
Malaysian crude palm oil (CPO) prices are set to rise in the near to medium term as heavy rains are expected to lower production, prevent workers from harvesting and cause the stockpile to dip. The last time La Nina hit Indonesia and Malaysia, the world's top two palm oil producers, was in 2007, wreaking floods that disrupted harvesting and transport of the commodity. It saw CPO prices surge to RM4,300 a tonne in March 2008. CPO prices are currently hovering around the RM2,400 and RM2,500 a tonne level. Felda Global Ventures Holdings Sdn Bhd president and chief executive officer Datuk Sabri Ahmad said that a strong La Nina will have a significant impact on this year's production, which is expected to be flat again. "During the second half of this year, CPO prices should be higher at RM2,600 and RM2,700 a tonne," Sabri told Business Times in a telephone interview. Academy of Sciences fellow Dr Ahmad Ibrahim said that oil palm trees generally love water. However, too much water can damage the fruit and affect production level. (BT)

20100726 1328 FKLI Mid Day Hourly Chart Study.

FKLI closed : 1355, changed : +1 point, volume : high.
Bollinger band reading : range bound, upside biased.
MACD Histrogram : weakenning, buyer taking profit plus roll over .
Support : 1350, 1345, 1337 level.
Resistant : 1360, 1375, 1385  level.
Comment :
Last Friday Dow Jones positive closed lead FKLI to opened gap up higher and test higher followed by profit taking selling pressure plus switching months activities pushed price consolidate lower in better volume changed hand. Hourly chart reading suggesting a correction range bound upside biased market for the near term testing support level at middle Bollinger band.

20100726 1318 FCPO Mid Day Hourly Chart Study.

FCPO closed : 2505, changed : -21 points, volume : lower.
Bollinger band reading : correction upside biased.
MACD Histrogram : turned downward, buyer continue to take profit.
Support : 2470, 2450, 2400 level.
Resistant : 2500, 2520, 2550 level.
Comment :
FCPO opened higher and traded side way range bound but still manage to record marginal gain for the first session in low volume transaction despite ITS export data show a drop in export for the period of 1~25 July 2010. Hourly chart shows that market continue to have correction testing middle Bollinger band support level with the outlook having a side way range bound upside biased reading.

20100726 1302 FCPO Weekly Chart Study.

Weekly Close: 2498, High: 2535, Low: 2424, Range: 111 points
FCPO closed : 2498, changed : +49 points, volume : higher.
Bollinger band reading : side way range bound.
MACD Histrogram : recovering, buyer seems getting aggressive to gain control.
Support : 2450, 2400, 2350 level.
Resistant : 2500, 2540, 2600 level.
Comment :
FCPO penetrated above middle Bollinger band to register another week of gain with continue improving volume transacted. Despite the 2 weeks surge, weekly chart outlook still recommending a side way range bound market development in the near term.

20100726 1140 FKLI Weekly Chart Study.

Weekly Close: 1354, High: 1355, Low: 1331, Range: 24 points.
FKLI closed : 1354, changed : +13.5 points, volume : lower.
Bollinger band reading : upside biased.
MACD Histrogram : continue recovering, buyer defending.
Support : 1350, 1335, 1310 level.
Resistant : 1360, 1375, 1385 level.
Comment :
Upward momentum remained firm on FKLI that gained higher week on week but with diminishing volume changed hand. Weekly chart reading still suggesting a upside biased potential market but the questionable issue here will be lack of volume.

20100726 0949 Global Market News.

Asian shares, euro rise after stress testsSINGAPORE, July 26 (Reuters) - Asian shares rose and the euro extended gains on Monday as solid U.S. corporate earnings and strong euro zone data offset growing scepticism that stress tests on European banks were not strict enough.
"With the results of the stress tests, which had been the market's big focus, out in the open, downward factors seem to have run their course for now, even though there's criticism that those tests might have been too easy," said Hiroichi Nishi, general manager of equity marketing at Nikko Cordial Securities.  

Euro, sterling up on data; stress tests awaited
LONDON, July 23 (Reuters) - The euro rose  after a survey showed German business sentiment posted a record jump in July to its highest level in three years, and corporate results lifted stocks ahead of eagerly awaited European bank stress test results.
"We expected an increase but we didn't expect this. The German economy is running really strong at the moment," said Ralph Solveen at Commerzbank.

20100726 0946 Soy Oil & Palm Oil Related News.

Commodity funds bought an estimated 1,000 soymeal contracts and 2,000 soyoil contracts. Weakness in crude oil kept a lid on soyoil, a trader says. Dec soymeal closed up $1, or 0.4%, at $283.30 per short ton. Dec soyoil rose 0.06 to 39.76 cents per pound.(Source: CME)

India Edible Oil Prices Rise On Firm Overseas, Poor Rains In Key State.(Source: CME)
Edible oil prices in India rose during the week ended Friday, tracking mostly firm overseas markets and due to poor rains in the major soybean producing state of Madhya Pradesh.
Crude palm oil was at INR39,500 a metric ton Friday, up from INR37,500 a week earlier, while the price of refined soyoil increased to INR46,200 a ton from INR44,500. The price of refined, bleached and deodorized palm olein rose to INR43,000 a ton from INR41,500.
Soy futures on the Chicago Board of Trade were higher because of tight supplies, demand and the uncertainty of weather during the U.S. soybean crop's critical development phase. Malaysian crude palm oil futures gained on increased demand as Asian countries gear up for major festive periods.
India, the world's second-largest edible oil consumer after China, mostly tracks overseas market as it imports more than half of its annual edible oil requirement.
Physical market prices were firm as farmers held back stocks in anticipation of a further rise in prices, said Badruddin Khan, an analyst with Angel Commodities.
So far in the monsoon season, rainfall in Madhya Pradesh has been about 30% below the 50-year average, according to the India Meteorological Department.
"Anticipation of a slow pace of sowing in coming days due to low rains in Madhya Pradesh also provided support to bulls for the short term," said Khan.
Although total sowing of oilseeds was higher as of July 22, soybean area was lower due to weak rains, traders said.
Sowing of oilseeds in India rose to 12.95 million hectares as of July 22 from 12.39 million a year earlier, government data showed. It didn't provide the breakup for different oilseeds.
Soybean sowing in India starts in June and continues through July.

Palm oil ends lows on weaker exports; weather eyed
KUALA LUMPUR, July 23 (Reuters) - Malaysian crude palm oil fell 0.8 percent  on expectations of lower export data next week although losses were limited by concerns that heavier rains may curb output growth.
"Exports could weaken a little due to the recent run-up in the cash market and some players are taking profits on weaker crude oil prices globally," said a trader with a foreign brokerage.

Soybean sowing down 3.8 pct in India's Madhya Pradesh
BHOPAL, India, July 23 (Reuters) - Soybean sowing in India's largest producer Madhya Pradesh state was down by 3.8 percent by July 19 as patchy rains delayed sowing operations, a senior government official told Reuters.
Soybean acreage in the state stood at 4.78 million hectares on July 19, down from 4.97 million hectares in the same period a year ago, said H.P. Bamania, additional director at the state's farm department.