Tuesday, December 13, 2011

20111213 1814 FCPO EOD Daily Chart Study.

FCPO closed : 3002, changed : +4 points, volume : lower.
Bollinger band reading : little downside biased.
MACD Histrogram : falling, buyer seller battling.
Support : 2970, 2950, 2920, 2900 level.
Resistance : 3020, 3050, 3070, 3100 level.
Comment :
FCPO closed recorded marginal gain with slower volume transacted. Overnight soy oil closed recorded loss and currently trading between gain and losses while crude oil price rebounding higher after recent falls.
Lower export data released by both cargo surveyor for the period of 1~10 Dec 2011 while MPOB Nov 2011 data showing lower export and production level with stock level dropped  less than expected.
Daily chart formed a down doji bar candle closed near lower Bollinger band level after market opened higher, traded side way tight range 1 tick higher followed by 2nd session plunge lower into negative zone and recovered upward to closed off the low of the day.
Chart reading suggesting a little downside biased market development testing support and resistance level.
When to buy : buy at support or weakness with quick cut loss and profit target.
When to sell : sell at resistant or strength with quick cut loss and profit target.

20111213 1733 FKLI EOD Daily Chart Study.

FKLI closed : 1465, changed : -0.5 points, volume : lower.
Bollinger band reading : side way range bound.
MACD Histrogram : falling, buyer seller battling.
Support : 1458, 1445, 1440, 1435 level.
Resistance : 1470, 1477, 1485, 1491 level.
Comment :
FKLI closed 1 tick lower with quiet volume changed hand on par with cash market that closed maginally lower. Overnight U.S. market closed recorded loss and today Asia markets ended lower while European markets currently trading between gain and losses.
Unsolved European sovereign debt problem, Fitch ratings joined Moody's in warning to lower European debt rating plus slower Intel sales forecast send most regional markets to trade lower. Market also awaits U.S. federal rate change decision.
Daily chart formed an up doji bar candle closed above middle Bollinger band level after market opened lower, edge upwards slowly towards the end before easing lower to closed off the high of the day.
Chart reading remained suggesting a side way range bound market development testing support and resistance level with MACD indicator having negative crossed down.
When to buy : buy at support or weakness with quick cut loss and profit target.
When to sell : sell at resistance or strength with quick cut loss and profit target.

20111213 1706 Regional Markets EOD Daily Chart Study.

 DJIA chart reading :  side way range bound.
 Hang Seng chart reading : little downside biased.
KLCI chart reading : side way range bound.

20111213 1632 MPOB Nov 2011 Official Crude Palm Oil Data.

ITS CPO export down 5.1% to 443,699 tonnes for the period of 1~10 Dec 2011.
SGS CPO export down 4.6% to 436,633 tonnes for the period of 1~10 Dec 2011.


MPOB Official Data for the month of Nov 2011 vs Oct 2011
Exports down 9.9% to 1,660,402 tonnes
Stocks down 1.5% to 2,068,754 tonnes
Output down 14.8% to 1,626,668 tonnes

20111213 1629 Global Market & Commodities Related News.

Stocks, euro hit by threat of Europe downgrades
SINGAPORE, Dec 13 (Reuters) - Asian stocks sank on Tuesday and the euro languished near a two-month low as investors took fright at the prospect of mass euro zone sovereign ratings downgrades after the outcome of a "last chance" European Union summit failed to convince markets.
"Although there were hopes that Europe would stabilise after the summit last week, we are seeing fresh uncertainty as Moody's, Standard & Poor's and Fitch have all warned on Europe," said Hiroichi Nishi, equity general manager at SMBC Nikko Securities in Tokyo.

FOREX-Euro hits 2-month low on euro zone debt fears
TOKYO, Dec 13 (Reuters) - The euro plumbed two-month lows in Asia on Tuesday while the Australian dollar sank closer to parity as rising disappointment over the European Union's summit prompted investors to position for possible downgrades of euro zone sovereign credit ratings.
Rating agencies warned on Monday that last week's EU summit, viewed by some as a last chance to save the euro, did not go far enough in easing immediate concerns about the region's debt markets.

US soy rises for 2nd day on LatAm weather concerns
SINGAPORE, Dec 13 (Reuters) - U.S. soybeans rose for a second straight day as concerns over dry weather in South America supported the market but the gains were capped by economic uncertainty fuelled by Europe's debt crisis.
"Soy is a key player at the moment, it is recovering from Friday's losses due to some concerns about South American crop weather," said Ker Chung Yang at Phillip Futures in Singapore.

India Nov crude palm oil imports to rise
NEW DELHI, Dec 12 (Reuters) - India's crude palm oil imports are likely to have risen and refined to have fallen in November as the unrefined variant remained cheaper depite Indonesia's attempt to promote sale of refined oils, a Reuters survey showed on Monday.
Total palm oil imports could have risen 12.5 percent in November 696,250 tonnes from October, the average of forecasts in a survey of eight traders showed, while soyoil imports are likely to have fallen 83.4 percent to 31,000 tonnes.

Vietnam Nov coffee exports rise to 70,700 T-customs
HANOI, Dec 13 (Reuters) - Vietnam exported 70,700 tonnes of coffee in November, more than double the previous month and higher than the 50,000 tonnes the government had forecast for the month, the customs department said on Tuesday.
Vietnam exported 32,000 tonnes of coffee in October. November's shipment raised the amount of coffee exported since January to 1.1 million tonnes, or 18.33 million 60-kg bags, which represents a 4.4 percent increase on the same year-ago period, Vietnam Customs said in a monthly report.

Vietnam's 2012 rice export seen steady, to ship to Malaysia
HANOI, Dec 13 (Reuters) - Vietnam has secured a contract to export 300,000 tonnes of rice to Malaysia in 2012, part of its plan to keep export volumes steady and retain its market share amid competition from cheaper Indian and Pakistani grain.
Vietnam targets exports of 7 million tonnes of rice in 2012, similar to the record high volume expected this year, a state-run newspaper quoted a government minister on Tuesday as saying.

Russia 2011/12 beet sugar output seen 4.6-5.2 mln T
MOSCOW, Dec 12 (Reuters) - Russia's beet sugar output from this year's crop is still expected to be a record, but the actual output may be in a wide range of 4.6 million to 5.15 million tonnes due to unpredictable weather, a leading sugar market analyst said on Monday.
"A significant volume of sugar of 4.60 to 5.15 million tonnes may be achieved if frosts set in and stay from now on to the end of January in the centre and in the south (of Russia), or else there will be losses," Yevgeni Ivanov of the Institute of Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR) told Reuters

Olam sees 2011/12 global cocoa deficit of 100,000 tonnes
LONDON, Dec 12 (Reuters) - World 2011/12 cocoa production is expected to fall around 100,000 tonnes short of grindings, as the market switches back to deficit after a record surplus the previous year, said the head of cocoa at Olam International Ltd .  
"We think there's a likelihood the deficit could increase; the arrivals at the moment look good and we believe that's because of some carry over from last year," Gerry Manley told Reuters, forecasting a dramatic drop in arrivals from January onwards.

Brent steady above $107; Europe woes weigh
SINGAPORE, Dec 13 (Reuters) - Brent crude was little changed above $107, after falling in the previous session, on concerns of demand growth as investors worried last week's pact by European leaders may not be enough to stop the region's debt crisis from worsening.
"Markets probably are thinking the euro zone is taking too long to get its act together," said Tony Nunan, risk manager at Mitsubishi Corp. "But it's also true that you can't force things at any quicker rate because of the sheer number of countries involved in the decision making process."

S.Korea S-Oil considering lower run rate in Jan -co source
SEOUL, Dec 13 (Reuters) - South Korea's third-largest crude oil refiner S-Oil  is considering lowering its January crude run rates to 510,000-520,000 barrels per day (bpd) from December's 565,000 bpd due to weakening refining margins, a company source said on Tuesday.
"We have been running units at nearly full capacity. Declining margins are making refiners including us consider lowering runs," the S-Oil source, who declined to be identified as he was not authorised to speak to the media, told Reuters.

China's copper imports up, LME stocks down: Andy Home
--Andy Home is a Reuters columnist. The opinions expressed are his own--
LONDON, Dec 12 (Reuters) - China's imports of copper accelerated to a 20-month high in November with 452,000 tonnes of refined metal, alloy, anode and products flowing through customs last month.
The figure may have been inflated by some spill-over impact from the previous month, which included a one-week national holiday, but the underlying trend is very firmly upwards.

Copper steady after fall on Europe disappointment, shift to dollar
KUALA LUMPUR, Dec 13 (Reuters) - London copper was steady after posting its biggest decline in three weeks in the previous session as investors shifted to dollar holdings in disappointment over Europe's plan to pull out of its debt crisis.
"Fundamentals still look OK, when we look at China's data, but Europe's troubles are not going to be fixed in the next week, month or quarter," said Mark Pervan, head of commodities research at ANZ Research in Melbourne.

Australia lifts iron ore export forecast, cuts coking coal
SYDNEY, Dec 13 (Reuters) - Australia nudged up on Tuesday its forecast for iron ore exports in 2011/12 by 2.4 percent to 460 million tonnes from its previous forecast as the world's top producers continue to expand, betting strong industrial growth in China will continue.  
But a forecast for metallurgical coal exports was revised down, with the Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics (BREE) now predicting exports will be 150 million tonnes versus 156 million in its forecast on Sept. 20, after a series of floods and strikes cut output.

China's LME entry to boost more than harm traders
LONDON, Dec 12 (Reuters) - A bastion of old London trading will meet a new global economic force next year when the London Metal Exchange is expected to admit a top Chinese bank, and for LME traders the benefits of an enlarged market are likely to outweigh share lost to the newcomer.
The Bank of China International (BOCI), the investment banking subsidiary of Bank of China Ltd (BOC)  , expects to get approval for membership of the LME by the end of the first quarter at the latest, an industry source said.

Gold falls to 7-week low on Europe anxiety
SINGAPORE, Dec 13 (Reuters) - Spot gold slid to a seven-week low on Tuesday, extending a 2.6-percent decline in the previous session, as worries about the euro zone debt crisis continued to grip investors after the euphoria over the European
Union summit agreement faded.
"It's all about anxiety and worry," said Nick Trevethan, Senior Commodities Strategist at ANZ in Singapore. "Gold is just getting lumped in with other markets as risky assets, not necessarily for the right reason."

METALS-Copper steady after fall on Europe disappointment, shift to dollar
KUALA LUMPUR, Dec 13 (Reuters) - London copper was steady on Tuesday after posting its biggest decline in three weeks in the previous session as investors shifted to dollar holdings in disappointment over Europe's plan to pull out of its debt crisis. Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange  was down 0.1 percent at $7,601 a tonne by 0434 GMT, after tumbling 2.6 percent in the previous session.

PRECIOUS-Gold falls to 7-week low on Europe anxiety
SINGAPORE, Dec 13 (Reuters) - Spot gold slid to a seven-week low on Tuesday, extending a 2.6-percent decline in the previous session, as worries about the euro zone debt crisis continued to grip investors after the euphoria over the European Union summit agreement faded.
Equities headed for a second day of losses and the euro languished near a two-month low as investors took fright at the prospect of mass euro zone sovereign ratings downgrades after the outcome of a "last chance" European Union summit failed to convince markets.