Friday, December 7, 2012

20121207 0944 Soy Oil & Palm Oil Related News.

Soybean Complex Market Recap (CME)
January Soybeans finished up 12 at 1491 1/4, 1 1/4 off the high and 18 up from the low. March Soybeans closed up 12 1/4 at 1486. This was 18 1/2 up from the low and 1 1/2 off the high. January Soymeal closed up 4.4 at 450.7. This was 4.8 up from the low and 0.3 off the high. January Soybean Oil finished up 0.2 at 51.2, 0.12 off the high and 0.9 up from the low.
January soybeans traded sharply higher into the closing bell after reporting explosive export demand data. The market ran higher on the news but quickly found selling interest on thoughts that the Brazil soybean crop might be getting larger due to favorable weather patterns. Brazil's government is projecting soybean production at 82.6 million tonnes vs. a range of 80.1-83 million tonnes in November. The USDA is at 81. Net weekly export sales came in at 1,142,700 tonnes for the current marketing year and 1,000 for the next marketing year for a total of 1,143,700. As of November 29th, cumulative sales stand at 78% of the USDA forecast for vs. a 5 year average of 63%. Sales of 208,000 tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast. Net meal sales came in at 463,600 tonnes for the current marketing year and 1,200 for the next marketing year for a total of 464,800 tonnes. As of November 29th, cumulative meal sales stand at 70% of the USDA forecast vs. a 5 year average of 44%. Sales of 49,000 tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast. Net oil sales came in at 19,000 tonnes and cumulative sales stand at 109% of the USDA forecast vs. a 5 year average of 34%. The late rally in soybeans was linked to strong demand by China and firm cash markets.

EDIBLE OIL: Malaysian palm oil futures edged up 0.4 percent as traders bet on demand rising in the face of tighter supplies of competing soyoil due to unfavourable weather in Argentina. (Reuters)

Palm Oil Shipments From Indonesia Seen Falling to Five-Month Low (Bloomberg)
Palm oil exports from Indonesia, the world’s largest producer, will probably drop to the lowest level in five months in December as a global economic slowdown curbs demand, according to a Bloomberg survey.
Shipments may fall 3 percent to 1.55 million metric tons from an estimated 1.6 million tons in November, according to the median of estimates from two traders, a plantation executive, refiner and an analyst compiled by Bloomberg. Inventories may remain unchanged at 3 million tons, the survey showed. Production may drop to 2.51 million tons from 2.54 million, four of the respondents said.
Palm oil, used in everything from soaps to candy to biofuels, has slumped 24 percent since the end of August as a decline in demand from Europe and China boosted stockpiles in Indonesia and Malaysia, the top growers. The commodity will probably tumble into a bear market next year as monthly output in Malaysia and Indonesia surges to records, according to Dorab Mistry, director at Godrej International Ltd.
“Demand from Europe is still weak especially for biodiesel,” Sahat Sinaga, executive director of the Indonesian Vegetable Oil Industry Association, said by phone from Jakarta. “We could see demand picking up in the first quarter with India maintaining its import tariff and recovery in China. It will help boost prices.”

Cheaper Oil
Futures in Kuala Lumpur, the global benchmark, may rally to 2,700 ringgit ($886) a ton by January, Sinaga said. The commodity will trade between 2,300 ringgit and 2,600 ringgit a ton between now and February, and drop below 2,200 ringgit in August or earlier, Godrej’s Mistry told a conference on Nov. 30.
The contract for February delivery rose 0.5 percent to close at 2,295 ringgit a ton on the Malaysia Derivatives Exchange yesterday. Futures have lost 28 percent this year, set for the biggest annual loss since the financial crisis in 2008.
Food demand for palm oil “is still relatively stable because palm is cheap compared with other oils,” said Hariyanto Wijaya, an analyst at PT Mandiri Sekuritas. Exports typically slow in December because of year-end holidays, he said.
Indonesia’s exports this month would be the lowest since July, when they reached 1.51 million tons, according to data from the palm oil association, known as Gapki. Shipments were 1.8 million tons and 1.5 million tons in November and December of last year, data showed. Gapki, which releases monthly export data, doesn’t publish stockpiles and production figures.
Malaysia’s inventories probably held near a record last month as production exceeded exports, according to another Bloomberg survey published yesterday. Stockpiles were 2.5 million tons compared with 2.51 million tons in October, according to the median of estimates from four analysts and two plantation executives. Output probably fell 5.7 percent to 1.83 million tons, while exports gained 1.7 percent to 1.79 million tons, the survey showed.

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