20180413 Gold Futures Technical View

Crude Oil Technical: 

Demand for gold increased on uncertain geopolitical and trade dispute development. 

Testing previous resistance area. 

A break and stay above 1,345 could see further upside. 

Stock & Commodities Related News.

US STOCKS-Futures jump as big banks earnings lift sentiment - Reuters News

13-Apr-2018 09:12:03 PM

• JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Citigroup gain after results
• Starbucks down after Cowen downgrade
• Futures: Dow 0.54 pct, S&P 0.53 pct, Nasdaq 0.44 pct

Adds comments, details, updates prices

By Sruthi Shankar

April 13 (Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures rose more than half a percent on Friday after a trio of big banks reported strong quarterly results, while geopolitical risks and concerns over trade war eased.

JPMorgan rose 1.5 percent in premarket trading after the biggest U.S. bank by assets reported a 35 percent surge in quarterly profit.

Wells Fargo rose 1.2 percent and Citigroup gained 1.6 percent after both the banks reported profit above Wall Street estimates.

"The numbers that we had were consistent with a strong economy," said Scott Brown, Chief Economist at Raymond James in St. Petersburg, Florida. "The mood is still very positive and investors are looking at good news over the bad news."

Tax cuts are expected to help corporate America post its biggest quarterly profit growth in seven years. Earnings at the S&P 500 companies are estimated to grow by 18.4 percent from a year earlier.

At 8:30 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were up 131 points, or 0.54 percent and S&P 500 e-minis rose 14 points, or 0.53 percent. Nasdaq 100 e-minis gained 29.5 points, or 0.44 percent.

Stocks got a boost on Thursday after U.S. President Donald Trump cast doubt over the timing of his threatened strike on Syria, easing the risk of clashes between Western powers and Russia in Syria over an alleged chemical attack.

Talks of the United States re-opening negotiations with the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP), a multinational trade deal the Trump administration walked away from last year, also helped sentiment.

But Trump later tweeted that the United States would only join the TPP if the deal were substantially better than the one offered to former President Barack Obama.

Among other stocks, Starbucks shares fell 1.2 percent after brokerage Cowen and Co downgraded the stock to "market perform".

Dropbox fell about 7 percent after brokerage Instinet started with "reduce" rating on the cloud-based storage firm.

Tesla jumped nearly 3 percent after its founder Elon Musk said the electric car maker will not need to raise any money this year as it will have positive cash flow and be profitable in the third and fourth quarter.

(Reporting by Sruthi Shankar in Bengaluru; Editing by Sriraj Kalluvila)

 

 

FOREX-Dollar hits seven-week high vs yen as focus shifts to U.S. earnings - Reuters News

13-Apr-2018 08:22:46 PM

• Dollar up to seven-week high against the yen
• FX markets largely ignore trade war fear
• Demand for carry trades returns
• Australian dollar rises 0.5 percent to $0.7795

Updates throughout

By Tom Finn

LONDON, April 13 (Reuters) - The dollar climbed to a seven-week high against the yen on Friday as investors' focus shifted to anticipated strong U.S. corporate earnings and away from concerns about a possible Western military intervention in Syria.

The weakening of the safe-haven yen suggested risk appetite had returned after a week dominated by U.S.-China trade tensions and the possibility of a U.S.-led missile strike on Syria.

Equities rose as Wall Street gained in anticipation of strong corporate earnings.

The yen's losses came despite S&P Global Ratings on Friday revising Japan's outlook to 'positive' from 'stable' on the view that a stronger economy set the stage for fiscal improvement.

The dollar rose 0.3 percent to 107.740 yen, taking it to its highest since late February.

"It would be naive in the extreme to suggest that the threat of an escalation of geopolitical factors has passed," CMC Markets' Michael Hewson said in a note.

"But recent price action might suggest we could head towards the upper end of the trading range in the coming days, particularly if U.S. earnings come in ahead of expectations," he said.

An uptick in demand for carry trades on Friday also pointed to a return in broader risk appetite.

In carry trades, dealers sell assets in low-yielding currencies such as the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen for those in ones offering higher returns such as the Australian dollar and other commodity-related currencies.

The Australian dollar, which is sensitive to shifts in risk sentiment, rose 0.6 percent to $0.7801, a three-week high.

FX QUIET

With few exceptions, currencies have remained quiet in the middle of tensions over trade and signs of slowing growth in Europe.

Volatility has rocked other assets but foreign exchange traders are focused on the slow-moving path toward normalising monetary policy in the world's biggest economies rather than geopolitical risks.

An index that tracks currency volatility among developed economies is trading near its lowest level this year.

"The problem the FX market is having with U.S. policies is that no 'strategy' seems to be discernible, but only measures that are as erratic as they are drastic," Commerzbank's head of FX strategy Ulrich Leuchtmann wrote in a note.

Other analysts said trade war angst had yet to meaningfully move currency markets.

"With each subsequent Presidential tweet, the bar for what actually constitutes risk-off in global FX and bond markets tends to increase," ING FX strategist Viraj Patel wrote in a note.

"It's now at a stage where ... a trade or geopolitical war needs to escalate materially to influence those asset prices."

The dollar index against a basket of six major currencies rose 0.1 percent to 89.813. It rose 0.2 percent the previous day, ending a four-day losing streak.

The euro traded flat at $1.2328 after losing 0.3 percent the previous day, which ended a four-day winning run.

The common currency has risen 0.4 percent this week, supported by comments from European Central bank officials that reinforced expectations towards monetary policy normalisation.

The Swiss franc, a perceived safe-haven currency, was little changed at 0.9534 per dollar after losing 0.5 percent overnight.

(Reporting by Tom Finn
Editing by Louise Ireland)

 

 

 

UPDATE 6-Oil steady, on track for biggest weekly gain since July - Reuters News

13-Apr-2018 09:15:56 PM

• OPEC and IEA see oil markets tightening
• China March crude oil imports second-highest on record

Updates prices

By Shadia Nasralla

LONDON, April 13 (Reuters) - Oil prices steadied on Friday, heading for their largest weekly gain since July after U.S. President Donald Trump's comments about possible military action in Syria and reports of dwindling global oil stocks.

Recovering from earlier losses, Brent crude was up 28 cents at $72.30 a barrel by 1301 GMT and set for a weekly gain of almost 8 percent, or about $5.

U.S. crude for May delivery rose 28 cents to $67.35, up more than 8 percent, or about $5, for the week.

"You have to put today's moves in the context of the last three days. There hasn't been any particular change today in terms of geopolitics or fundamental data," said Harry Tchilinguirian of BNP Paribas.

Both oil benchmarks hit their highest since late 2014 on Wednesday after Trump warned that missiles "will be coming" in response to a suspected gas attack in Syria and after Saudi Arabia said it intercepted missiles over Riyadh.

Trump tweeted on Thursday that an attack on Syria "could be very soon or not so soon at all", raising the prospect that an attack might not be as imminent as he seemed to suggest the previous day.

"As we start the last day of the week, we feel that the geopolitical risks are not as high as feared three days ago," Petromatrix said in a note.

"The Syrian escalation risk cannot be fully written off, but we view that it deserves less of a premium than three days ago."

A global oil stocks surplus is close to evaporating, OPEC said on Thursday, adding that its collective output fell to 31.96 million barrels per day (bpd) in March, down 201,000 bpd from February.

Vienna-based OPEC and its oil producer allies are poised to extend their supply reduction pact into 2019 even as the global glut of crude looks set to be eradicated by September, OPEC Secretary-General Mohammad Barkindo told Reuters.

The International Energy Agency (IEA), which coordinates the energy policies of industrialised nations, signalled on Friday that markets could become too tight if supply remains restrained.

"It is not for us to declare on behalf of the Vienna agreement countries that it is 'mission accomplished', but if our outlook is accurate, it certainly looks very much like it," the IEA said.

Meanwhile China's March crude oil imports climbed month on month to the second-highest level on record.

In Norway, Eni has shut output at its Arctic Goliat oilfield because of a small at a platform that has capacity of close to 100,000 barrels a day.

(Additional reporting by Osamu Tsukimori in Tokyo
Editing by David Goodman)

 

 

 

PRECIOUS-Gold on track for second weekly gain as Syria concerns linger - Reuters News

13-Apr-2018 08:51:21 PM

• SPDR Gold holdings highest in 10 months
• Palladium set for biggest weekly rise since January 2017

 (Updates prices)

By Zandi Shabalala

LONDON, April 13 (Reuters) - Gold prices edged higher on Friday, heading for a second weekly gain on lingering uncertainty over Western military action in Syria.

U.S. President Donald Trump and his national security aides on Thursday discussed options on Syria, where he has threatened missile strikes in response to a suspected poison gas attack, as a Russian envoy voiced fears of wider conflict between Washington and Moscow.

Trump, however, cast doubt over the timing of his threatened strike on Syria on Thursday, by tweeting that an attack on Syria "could be very soon or not so soon at all".

Gold is often used as store of value in times of political and financial uncertainty.

"Donald Trump back-pedalled a bit in his morning tweet yesterday, but the danger is still there that situation could escalate with Russia due to a military attack on Syria," said Quantitative Commodity Research consultant Peter Fertig.

"We are back at a Cold War, which easily could turn into a hot war if someone loses their nerve -- and in such a situation gold is a haven."

Spot gold was up 0.2 percent at $1,337.61 an ounce at 1223 GMT, set for a weekly gain of about half a percent. U.S. gold futures were steady at $1,340.70.

Global equities were poised for their biggest weekly gain in more than a month as investors shrugged off the geopolitical tensions.

Easing concerns over the trade war between China and the United States also weighed on gold in the previous session.

Meanwhile, holdings of SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, rose 0.69 percent to 865.89 tonnes on Thursday.

Holdings rose to their highest since June 2017 and were up about 3.5 percent so far this year, suggesting an increase in investor appetite for the metal, seen as a safe investment during times of financial and political uncertainties.

In other precious metals, silver rose 0.4 percent to $16.51 an ounce, up more than 1 percent this week.

Platinum was up 0.2 percent at $927.30. For the week, the metal was on course for a more than 1 percent gain, the biggest rise in about two months.

Palladium climbed 1.2 percent to $975.90 and set for a more than 8 percent weekly gain, its best since January 2017.

(Additional reporting by Swati Verma in Bengaluru Editing by David Evans and David Goodman)

 

 

CBOT Trends-Wheat down 6-7 cents, corn steady-down 1, soy up 1-2 - Reuters News

13-Apr-2018 09:28:41 PM

CHICAGO, April 13 (Reuters) - Following are U.S. trade expectations for the resumption of the grain and soy complex trading at the Chicago Board of Trade at 8:30 a.m. CDT (1330 GMT) on Friday.

 

WHEAT - Down 6 to 7 cents per bushel

• Wheat lower on technical selling and wetter forecasts for late next week in the southern U.S. Plains winter wheat belt, which has struggled with months of dry conditions. Sluggish export demand for U.S. supplies amid ample global stockpiles adds pressure.
• MGEX spring wheat futures underpinned by fears of wintry weather delaying planting in the northern Plains.
• Consulting firm IKAR raised its forecast for Russia's 2017/18 wheat exports to 39.5 million tonnes from 38.5 million previously.
• CBOT May soft red winter wheat last traded down 6-1/2 cents at $4.74-1/2 per bushel. K.C. May hard red winter wheat was last down 7-1/2 cents at $5.00 and MGEX May spring wheat  was last down 2-1/4 cents at $6.20-3/4.

CORN - Steady to down 1 cent per bushel

• Corn futures flat to easier on technical selling and spillover weakness from wheat. Market underpinned by fears of a slow start to planting in the U.S. Midwest.
• Additional underlying support stems from news that U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday his administration may allow the sale of gasoline containing 15 percent ethanol year-round.
• The move could help farmers by firing up corn demand, but faces opposition from Big Oil.
• CBOT May corn last traded down 1/4 cent at $3.88-1/2 a bushel.

SOYBEANS - Up 1 to 2 cents per bushel

• Soybeans headed higher on technical buying and robust demand from exporters and domestic crushers.
• Trade monitoring a blizzard expected in South Dakota and Nebraska that could delay plantings of corn and spring wheat, potentially prompting farmers to switch more acres to soybeans.
• China, the world's largest soy buyer, imported 5.66 million tonnes of soybeans in March, up 4.5 percent from 5.42 million tonnes in February, Chinese customs figures showed.
• CBOT May soybeans last traded up 2 cents at $10.62-3/4 per bushel.

(Reporting by Julie Ingwersen)

 

 

 

Agloan-SOYBEANS HIGHER, WHEAT LOWER, CORN WAITING FOR SPRING - ENP Newswire

13-Apr-2018 08:14:45 PM

ENPNEWSWIRE-(C)2018 ENPUBLISHING

Release date- 12042018 - Agloan-SOYBEANS HIGHER, WHEAT LOWER, CORN WAITING FOR SPRING.

Corn was up 1 3/4 cents in the May contract and up 1 1/2 cents in the December.

Soybeans were up 13 cents in the May contract and up 7 cents in the November. Wheat closed down 6 1/4 cents in the May Chicago contract, down 9 1/4 cents in the May Kansas City and down 6 cents in the May Minneapolis contract.

The June U.S. dollar index is up 0.21 at 89.46. June gold is down $19.70 at $1,340.30 while May silver is down 29 cents and May copper is down $0.0545. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 318 points at 24,507. May crude oil is down $0.08 at $66.74. May heating oil is down $0.0134 while May RBOB gasoline is down $0.0184, and May natural gas is up $0.006.

Corn:

May corn closed up 1 3/4 cents Thursday, holding roughly sideways this week while producers continue to wait for warmer, and in some cases, drier planting conditions. Thursday saw warmer temperatures and mostly dry weather across the Corn Belt, but that brief taste of spring will be interrupted by another winter storm from the northwestern Plains on Friday that will bring snow to the northwestern Corn Belt and rain to the central and Eastern Corn Belt over the weekend. Meanwhile, Brazil's second corn crop is off to a good start with drier, but favorable conditions expected in the week ahead. Corn exports have a high bar set for 2017-18, and they are still not certain to achieve USDA's 2.225 billion bushel (bb) goal. Early Thursday, USDA said last week's export sales and shipments of corn totaled, 33.1 million bushels (mb) and 75.3 mb respectively, a bearish sales number, but a new marketing year high for shipments. Total corn shipments are now down 21% in 2017-18 from a year ago with less than five months to go. Technically, the trend remains sideways for old-crop corn and gradually higher for new-crop corn. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.53 Wednesday, near its highest prices since June 2016 and priced 34 cents below the May contract. In outside markets, the June U.S. dollar index is up 0.21 after Wednesday's minutes from the Federal Reserve said economic growth strengthened through February. The Dow is up 318 points early Thursday afternoon as concerns about military action against Syria have eased.

Soybeans:

May soybeans finished 13 cents higher Thursday, supported by commercial buying in both, old-crop and new-crop contracts of soybean and soybean meal. As described in Wednesday's DTN article, 'Brazil's Bull Rally in Soybeans,' the combination of strong demand from China for Brazil's soybeans plus Argentina's drought, is starting to show more bullish influence on U.S. soybeans prices, especially new-crop and in spite of tariff concerns on U.S. soybeans. While prices show more bullish behavior, U.S. export statistics remain glum. Early Thursday, USDA said last week's export sales and shipments of U.S. soybeans totaled 55.5 mb and 15.4 mb respectively, a neutral-to-bearish showing for the week with total shipments now down 13% from a year ago. More encouraging were the 8.8 mb (240,000 metric tons) of new-crop soybeans sold to Argentina this week-not a usual customer. USDA is expecting 89.0 million acres (ma) of soybean plantings this spring, but much will depend on how well corn planting goes and any weather issues that may cause prevented acres. As of Thursday's higher close, the trend in old-crop soybeans is up, joining the uptrend in new-crop soybeans already in progress. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $9.77 Wednesday, near its highest prices in over a year and priced 71 cents below the May contract.

Wheat:

May Chicago wheat closed down 6 1/4 cents and May Kansas City wheat dropped 9 1/4 cents on light volume as the buy side of the market took a step back from Thursday's latest forecast. The seven-day forecast remains dry for the southwestern U.S. Plains, but days eight through 10 have a chance for roughly an inch of rain around parts of Kansas. That is not exactly a drought-breaker, and the forecast may change by the time we get to next weekend, but it was bearish enough to drop prices on Thursday. Speaking of drought, Thursday's U.S. Drought Monitor looked similar to last week, except for a larger area of exceptional drought around the Texas Panhandle. It seems fair to say U.S. wheat exports aren't going to provide any bullish help to wheat prices in 2017-18. USDA said last week's export sales and shipments of wheat totaled 4.4 mb and 16.0 mb respectively, another bearish combination for the week. Total wheat shipments are now down 10% from a year ago and are making no dent in the heavy load of old-crop winter wheat supplies with less than two months remaining in the season. Technically, the trends remains sideways for all three wheats with September Minneapolis wheat staying near its March high. National SRW index closed at $4.55 Wednesday, near its highest prices in eight months and 32 cents below the May contract. DTN's HRW index closed at $4.77, near its highest price in two years.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow Todd Hultman on Twitter @ToddHultman1

[Editorial queries for this story should be sent to newswire@enpublishing.co.uk]

((Comments on this story may be sent to info@enpublishing.co.uk))

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U.S. Trade policy news.

Trump Reverses Course and Proposes Rejoining Trans-Pacific Partnership

By Ana Swanson

(New York Times) -- WASHINGTON — President Trump, in a stunning reversal, told a gathering of farm state lawmakers and governors on Thursday morning that he was directing his advisers to look into rejoining the multicountry trade deal known as the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a deal he pulled out of within days of assuming the presidency.

The decision to consider rejoining the 11-country pact is as head-spinning as Mr. Trump's initial move to withdraw from the agreement, which was supported by many Republican lawmakers as well as American industries that stood to benefit from the trade agreement's favorable terms. The deal, which was initiated by the Obama administration, was largely viewed as a tool to prod China into making the type of economic reforms that the United States and others have long wanted.

Many business leaders were disappointed when Mr. Trump withdrew from agreement, arguing that the United States would end up with less favorable terms attempting to broker an array of individual trade pacts and that scrapping the deal would empower China. Republicans in Congress have also been skeptical of Mr. Trump's tendencies on trade, and 25 Republican senatorssent a letter to Mr. Trump urging him to re-engage with the pact "so that the American people can prosper from the tremendous opportunities that these trading partners bring."

But Mr. Trump has remained sharply critical of the pact and said that he would instead negotiate trade agreements one on one, a tactic he says gives the United States better leverage over its trading partners.

His decision to reconsider the deal comes as the White House tries to find ways to protect the agriculture sector, which could be badly damaged by the president's trade approach.

The risk of an escalating trade war with China has panicked American farmers and ranchers, who send many of their products abroad. China has responded to Mr. Trump's threat of tariffs on as much as $150 billion worth of Chinese goods by placing its own tariffs on American pork, and threatening taxes on soybeans, sorghum, corn and beef.

China's aggressive response to Mr. Trump's tariffs is aimed squarely at products produced in the American heartland, a region that helped send him to the White House. A trade war with China could be particularly devastating to rural economies, especially for pig farmers and soybean and corn growers. Nearly two-thirds of United States soybean exports go to China.

The Trump administration says it has ordered the Agriculture Department to create a program to help farmers hurt by trade. Trade advisers say the department could use a program known as the Commodity Credit Corporation to purchase potentially billions of dollars of crops from American farmers harmed by tariffs.

But such a program would be time-consuming and costly and would come as the budget deficit continues to increase. Many American agriculturalists maintain that the easiest way to help them is to avoid a trade war with China in the first place. And many economists say the best way to combat a rising China and pressure it to open its market is through multilateral trade deals like the Trans-Pacific Partnership, which create favorable trading terms for participants.

"The best thing the United States can do to push back against Chinese cheating now is to lead the other eleven Pacific nations that believe in free trade and the rule of law. It is good news that today the President directed Larry Kudlow and Ambassador Lighthizer to negotiate U.S. entry into TPP," Senator Ben Sasse, a Nebraska Republican, said in a statement.

Among those who supported the Trans-Pacific Partnership was Mr. Trump's nominee to head the state department, Mike Pompeo, who said during his confirmation hearing on Thursday that the United States needs "to be deeply engaged" in dealing with China.

On Thursday, Republican senators, congressmen and governors from Iowa, Nebraska, North Dakota, Kansas, Texas and other farming states met with the president to express their concerns.

Republican of Nebraska, said it was "good news" that the president had directed his economic adviser, Larry Kudlow, and his trade negotiator, Robert Lighthizer, to look into rejoining the deal. "The best thing the United States can do to push back against Chinese cheating now is to lead the other 11 Pacific nations that believe in free trade and the rule of law," Mr. Sasse said in a statement.

Senator Charles E. Grassley, Republican of Iowa, said in a tweet on Thursday that the farm state senators who attended the meeting had each expressed concerns about "nervousness among farmers" because of Chinese retaliation.

Renegotiating the Trans-Pacific trade deal would be difficult at this point. The remaining 11 countries spent months renegotiating a pact and finally agreed to a sweeping multinational deal this year.

(Source: Bloomberg)