Friday, May 6, 2011

20110506 1850 FCPO EOD Daily Chart Study.

FCPO closed : 3195, changed : -34 points, volume : higher.
Bollinger band reading : downside biased with possible pullback correction.
MACD Histrogram : fall lower, seller taking exposure.
Support : 3150, 3100, 3070, 3050 level.
Resistance : 3200, 3250, 3270, 3300 level.
Comment :
Hit 6 week low FCPO closed recorded loss with increasing volume transacted while soy oil overnight continue to closed lower and currently trading weaker as most commodities slumps while U.s Dollar continue to recover upward.
Current picking up crude palm oil production cycle and increasing stock level still pressuring price to stay lower with some mild buying interest from importing countries like China, India and Pakistan.
Daily chart formed an up bar doji candle with longer lower shadow closed at lower Bollinger band level after market opened gap down, edge up little higher tested resistance levels followed by after lunch sell down touched 6 week low before recovered upwards to closed near the high of the day.
Technical chart reading turned to suggesting a downside biased market development with possible upward pullback correction.
When to buy : buy at support or weakness with quick cut loss and profit target.
When to sell : sell at resistant or strength with larger cut loss and profit target.

20110506 1823 FKLI EOD Daily Chart Study.

FKLI closed : 1512.5 changed : +2.5 points, volume : higher.
Bollinger band reading : pullback correction little downside biased.
MACD Histrogram : falling, seller taking exposure.
Support : 1500, 1485, 1470, 1458 level.
Resistance : 1515, 1530, 1540, 1550 level.
Comment :
FKLI closed recorded small gain with higher volume changed hand doing 3 points discount compare to cash market that closed lower while regional markets trading mostly lower ahead of tonight release of U.S. non farm payrolls data.
News wise, Bank Negara Malaysia announced overnight interest rate hike by 0.25% to 3% and increased bank reserve requirement as inflation level continue to accelerate due to higher oil and food price. 
Daily chart formed an up bar candle with lower shadow closed above lower Bollinger band level after market opened gap down, traded lower and recovered upwards to closed recorded gain as traders decided to cover short position ahead of the weekend and U.S. payrolls data.
Chart wise, reading suggesting a little downside biased market development with pullback correction taking place.
When to buy : buy at support or weakness with quick cut loss and profit target.
When to sell : sell at resistant or strength with quick cut loss and profit target.

20110506 1518 Global Commodities Related News.

Commodity selling peters out but outlook cloudy
HONG KONG, May 6 (Reuters) - A sharp overnight selloff in commodities petered out on Friday, led by a small pullback in silver, while Asian equities clawed back up from the day's lows as market players squared positions before U.S. payrolls data.
"The rebound is mainly due to the market being oversold, when commodities reverse it rarely goes down in a straight line," said Gordon Kwan, head of energy research at Mirae Asset Securities in Hong Kong.  

US corn extends fall, supply outlook shelters soy
SYDNEY, May 6 (Reuters) - U.S. corn, soybeans and wheat futures remained volatile, tracking movements in the wider commodities complex including oil, while trade was also influenced by weather in key crop growing regions across the world.
"After the large overnight movements, grains in Asian markets are still volatile and in line with a little movement down in the U.S. dollar," said Garry Booth, a senior trader with MF Global Australia.

Argentine soy, corn forecasts unchanged-exchange
BUENOS AIRES, May 5 (Reuters) - Argentina's 2010/11 soy harvest is expected to come in at 49.2 million tonnes, unchanged from the week-ago estimate, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said in a report on Thursday.
The South American country is the world's No. 1 soymeal and soyoil exporter, as well as its third-biggest soybean supplier.

Canada seen storing less wheat, canola
WINNIPEG, Manitoba, May 5 (Reuters) - Canada's grain bins and commercial elevators contained less wheat, canola and other crops as of March 31 than they did a year earlier, after a disappointing harvest tightened supplies, traders and analysts said.
Cool, wet conditions last year kept some crops from fully maturing, while flooding left millions of acres unplanted and limited the size of the harvest.

USDA picks first region for biomass crop subsidy
WASHINGTON, May 5 (Reuters) - Farmers in west-central Missouri and eastern Kansas are eligible for federal payments if they plant biomass crops, the U.S. government said on Thursday, in a step to help renewable energy take root in fuel and power sales.
It was the first designation by the Agriculture Department of a project area through the Biomass Crop Assistance Program (BCAP) and could more than double output of biomass pellets by Show Me Energy Cooperative, of Centerview, Missouri.

Brazil exports 2.44 mln bags green coffee in April
SAO PAULO, May 5 (Reuters) - Brazil exported 2.44 million 60-kg bags of green coffee in April, up from the 2.00 million bags shipped in the same month last year, the Council of Coffee Exporters, Cecafe, said on Thursday.
Brazil, the world's biggest coffee producer and exporter, just started gathering its 2011/12 crop, which will likely be its biggest ever off-year output in the biennial cycle.

Coffee supply up from Vietnam, Indonesia; but prices resilient
HANOI/BANDAR LAMPUNG, May 5 (Reuters) - Vietnam raised coffee export forecasts for 2011 by 4 percent and exports from Indonesia nearly doubled last month, but the increase may have little impact on global prices that are underpinned by concerns about scarce good-quality beans.
A rally in New York arabica futures to 34-year peaks pushed up London robustas  to a new contract high at $2,624 a tonne this week, and high coffee prices have also forced retailers to pass on the cost to consumers.

Torrential rains threaten Colombia's coffee crop
TENA, Colombia, May 5 (Reuters) - Colombia's rainiest April on record drenched Ismael Garcia's hillside coffee farm, causing a landslide that wiped out thousands of his trees in one swoop.
The loss would sting any year but hurts more now that coffee prices hit their highest levels in more than three decades this week.

Brent rebounds above $112, but economic concerns persist
SINGAPORE, May 6 (Reuters) - Brent crude rose by 1.3 percent to over $112 a barrel weaker dollar sparked a rebound from an overnight rout, but prices could head south again on mounting economic concerns.
"The rebound is mainly due to the market being oversold, when commodities reverse it rarely goes down in a straight line," said Gordon Kwan, head of energy research at Mirae Asset Securities in Hong Kong.

ShFE copper opens weaker, tracking LME drop to 5-mth low
SINGAPORE, May 6 (Reuters) - Copper in Shanghai fell , tracking London prices that crashed to a five-month low in the previous session as part of a broader commodities sell off triggered by worries about economic growth.
"Shanghai copper's performance today is no doubt affected by the crash in prices in London last night. I see last night's commodity sell-off as a normal correction after a rapid rise in the prices over the past few months," Jinrui Futures Analyst Guo Yong said.

Iron Ore-Prices unchanged as buyers await correction
SHANGHAI, May 6 (Reuters) - Iron ore prices in China stood unchanged over the week with buyers from the world's biggest steelmaking nation still unwilling to commit to big purchases as they await a short-term correction.
Industry consultancy Umetal said 63.5/63 percent Indian fines were being offered at $188-190 per tonne, including freight, unchanged since Wednesday.

Silver bounces from 12-pct fall, gold up ahead of US jobs
SINGAPORE, May 6 (Reuters) - Silver rebounded from its biggest one-day dollar fall since 1980, and gold also recovered as cheaper prices lured in Asian investors keeping a wary eye on U.S. employment data due later in the day.
"Prices have dropped so much over the past few days and bargain hunters are in," said Ong Yi Ling, an analyst at Phillip Futures, adding that the weak outlook for U.S. employment data helped add to the lure of gold.

Turkey steel consumption seen up 15 pct in 2011
ISTANBUL, May 5 (Reuters) - Steel consumption in Turkey is seen rising 15 percent this year to 27 million tonnes, on higher demand from the construction, automobile and white goods industry, the Turkish iron and steel producers association said.
The group's general secretary Veysel Yayan told Reuters long steel consumption would rise 10 percent and flat steel use would gain 15 percent.

20110506 1147 Global Market & Commodities Related News.

OIL: Oil rebounds above $100 after market collapse
TOKYO/SINGAPORE, May 6 (Reuters) - U.S. crude rose above $100 on Friday, a slight rebound from a near record collapse the previous session, as weak economic data from Europe and the United States sparked a broad sell-off in commodities.
World stocks fell and the 19-commodity Reuters-Jefferies CRB index dropped more than 4.9 percent, heading for its biggest weekly decline since December 2008.

NATURAL GAS: Natgas craters 7 pct on bearish EIAs, crude crash
NEW YORK, May 5 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures ended sharply lower on Thursday, pressured by a crumbling crude market and a government report showing a weekly inventory build above market expectations for the first time in four weeks.
"I think the market got ahead of itself. People were expecting a lower (EIA build) number, and gas got pulled into the broad commodity sell-off," said Martin King at FirstEnergy Capital in Calgary, noting crude slumped $9 a barrel today.

EURO COAL: Dips a dollar with commodities' fall
LONDON, May 5 (Reuters) - Prompt European delivered physical coal prices slipped by around $1 a tonne on Thursday while South African prices were little changed after a slide in oil and commodity prices.
Investors exited commodity markets in a rush for the fourth day. Brent crude fell by $8 a barrel and silver extended an historic slide.

COMMODITIES: Stampede for the exits, oil drops record $12
NEW YORK/LONDON, May 5 (Reuters) - Commodity investors stampeded out of markets on Thursday and oil suffered its worst selloff on record as worries mounted that global economic growth was slowing.
"There's a lot of tourists in our markets that have piled in at the wrong level. Now there's liquidation by commodity trading advisors," said Tony Hall, chief investment officer at UK-based hedge fund Duet Commodities.

GLOBAL MARKETS: Stocks drop on commodities selloff, dollar jumps
HONG KONG, May 6 (Reuters) - Stocks in Asia's developed markets fell on Friday as a sharp overnight selloff in commodities forced investors to cut positions, though some short-covering before the important U.S. payrolls data may check sharp falls.
"Such hopes were betrayed by poor U.S. jobless claims and the strong yen while we were on holiday," said Kenichi Hirano, a strategist at Tachibana Securities. "Investors will likely sell on disappointment as they had bought on such optimism on Monday, though the Nikkei may be supported above 9,700."

High oil prices may strangle demand: Overseas Shipholding
BANGALORE, May 5 (Reuters) - Overseas Shipholding Group Inc , the world's second-largest independent tanker company, warned that rising crude oil prices  could crush demand for a marine transport industry already struggling with an oversupply of ships.
Ship operators may idle vessels, reposition them or just drive them slower to try to mitigate oil prices that have risen to 2-1/2-year highs - before Thursday's sharp drop.

Higher oil prices put Caribbean economies on edge
MIAMI, May 5 (Reuters) - Higher global oil prices are squeezing economies and family budgets in the Caribbean, one of the last regions in the world still struggling to bounce back from the global financial crisis.
Few Caribbean countries, most of them small, fragile and import-dependent, are oil producers, and sharp increases in oil prices send shudders across a region that spends billions of dollars a year on energy imports.

20110506 1022 Local & Global Economic Related News.

Malaysia: BNM raises interest rates, reserve ratio to tame prices
Malaysia raised interest rates for the first time this year and asked banks to set aside more cash as reserves for a second time, joining India in stepping up the fight against inflation amid surging oil and food prices. Bank Negara Malaysia increased its benchmark overnight policy rate to 3% from 2.75%, it said in a statement in Kuala Lumpur yesterday. The statutory reserve requirement level will rise to 3% from 2% effective 16 May. Governor Zeti Akhtar Aziz, the first to raise rates in Asia last year as the region led a recovery from the global recession, is resuming increases after pausing since July as inflation accelerated to a 23-month high. India boosted borrowing costs this week for the ninth time since mid-March of 2010 as rising prices force nations to tighten monetary policy at the risk of slowing growth. (Bloomberg)

Indonesia: GDP growth slows, increasing scope to hold rate
Indonesia’s economic growth slowed last quarter as government spending eased, boosting scope to extend a pause in interest-rate increases after inflation cooled. Gross domestic product rose 6.5% in the three months through March from a year earlier, the Central Bureau of Statistics said in Jakarta yesterday. It gained 6.89% in the prior quarter, according to previously reported data. President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono aims to expand the economy at an annual average rate of 6.6%, partly by boosting investment in roads, railways and ports. (Bloomberg)

Hong Kong: Home sales fall to 2-year low on curbs, rates
Hong Kong home sales fell to the lowest volume in more than two years in April as government curbs and rising mortgage rates sapped demand after a price surge since 2009. The number of units that changed hands last month declined 37.6% from a year earlier to 7,635, according to a statement on the Land Registry website yesterday. The value of transactions slid 26.8% from a year earlier to HKD39bn (USD5bn), the biggest yearly drop since June 2010, according to the release. (Bloomberg)

UK: BOE holds interest rate at 0.5% on signs recovery Is fading
The Bank of England kept its benchmark interest rate at a record low as signs the recovery is losing momentum kept a majority of policy makers focused on stimulating growth during the government’s fiscal squeeze. The nine-member Monetary Policy Committee held the key rate at 0.5%. The economy stalled over the fourth and first quarters, and surveys this week showed services, manufacturing and construction growth moderated in April. (Bloomberg)

US: Jobless claims unexpectedly jump on one-time events
The number of claims for U.S. unemployment benefits unexpectedly rose last week, pushed up by auto-plant shutdowns and other unusual events that seasonal variations failed to take into account, the Labor Department said. Applications for jobless benefits jumped by 43,000 to 474,000 in the week ended April 30, the most since August, Labor Department figures showed to yesterday. A spring break holiday in New York, a new emergency benefits program in Oregon and auto shutdowns caused by the disaster in Japan were the main reasons for the surge, a Labor Department spokesman said as the data was released to the press. (Bloomberg)

US: Consumer confidence falls as fuel costs rise
Consumer confidence dropped last week to the lowest level in more than a month as rising fuel costs squeezed American household budgets. The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index decreased to minus 46.2 in the week ended 1 May, the lowest level since the end of March, from minus 45.1 the prior period. Stocks dropped and Treasury securities rose on concern that rising expenses, including the highest gasoline prices in almost three years, may prompt companies and households to cut back on spending. (Bloomberg)

20110506 1020 Malaysia Corporate Related News.

 KLCI chart reading : 
side way range bound downside biased.

Maybank to make mandatory unconditional cash offer for Kim Eng
Malayan Banking is going ahead with its plan to undertake a mandatory unconditional cash offer to acquire all the ordinary shares of Kim Eng Holdings Ltd at a price of SGD3.10 per share. Maybank said on Thursday, 5 May the pre-condition to the making of the offer was to satisfy certain key conditions in the sale and purchase agreements with Ronald Anthony Ooi Thean Yat and Yuanta Securities Asia Financial Services Ltd, to acquire 15.4% and 29.2% stakes respectively in Kim Eng. “The acquisition was conditional upon the satisfaction of the Key Conditions, including, amongst others, obtaining approvals from Bank Negara Malaysia and the Monetary Authority of Singapore. Maybank expects completion of the acquisition to take place next week,” it said. In addition to the acquisition, Maybank, had via Maybank Investment Bank Holdings, acquired a further 5.6% stake in Kim Eng from the market on 7 Jan, 2011 and 10 Jan, 2011. (Financial Daily)

TNB subsidiary to man hydro plant in Pakistan
TNB Repair and Maintenance SB (TNB Remaco), a wholly-owned subsidiary of Tenaga Nasional (TNB), is expected to complete a deal to operate and maintain an 84MW hydro power plant in Pakistan soon. The value of the project, however, could not be disclosed now, TNB Remaco chief operating officer Anuar Yusoff told reporters at a media retreat here recently. TNB Remaco is principally engaged in providing repair and maintenance; operation and maintenance and project consultancy services in the power as well as oil and gas sectors. While its main customer is TNB and its related companies in Malaysia, TNB Remaco has made major inroads in Pakistan and Saudi Arabia. In Pakistan, TNB Remaco was operating and maintaining two power plant projects a 235MW combined cycle power plant and the 225MW diesel-engine power plant. Besides the upcoming hydro power plant project, which would be commercially operational by 2013, there was also a 200MW diesel-engine power plant project in Faisalabad in the pipeline. The latter was expected to be commercially operational next year. (StarBiz)

EONCap: Takeover offer pending completion
EON Capital Bhd (EONCap) has secured the last two regulatory approvals it needs to proceed with its RM5.06 bn takeover by Hong Leong Bank Bhd. Bank Negara Malaysia yesterday approved its plan for a RM311.9m dividend payout, and a day earlier, the Securities Commission gave the go-ahead for a proposed change in shareholding of EONCap's investment bank, MIMB Investment Bank Bhd. "As such, the (takeover) offer has become unconditional and it is now pending completion," EONCap said in a stock exchange filing yesterday. It also said that its shareholder Primus (Malaysia) SB's appeal against a recent court ruling that the offer is legal has been fixed for case management on 31 May 2011. (Financial Daily)

Pos Malaysia views Tricubes email plan as threat
Pos Malaysia views Tricube’s venture to send government notices via email as a threat. Pos Malaysia said on 5 May it will engage with Performance Management & Delivery Unit and Malaysian Administrative Modernisation and Management Planning Unit (MAMPU) to understand the myemail project. Pos Malaysia said it would explore ways how it could participate in the project. “We know that this will be a significant threat to the physical mail business,” said Pos Malaysia CEO and group managing director Datuk Syed Faiusal Albar. He said that government mail amounted to RM20m of its annual revenue. Tricubes was appointed by MAMPU to implement the 1Malaysia Email project. (Financial Daily)

GAB’s Q3 net profit at RM49m
Guiness Anchor Bhd’s (GAB) net profit rose 5% to RM48.9m for the 3Q ended 31 March, against RM46.7m posted a year earlier, mainly due to supply chain efficiencies. Revenue for the quarter however was lower at RM351.9m compared with RM370.8m posted previously. GAB said the decline in revenue was mainly due to an earlier Chinese New Year. Earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter stood at 16.21 sen versus 15.45 sen posted a year ago. (StarBiz)-

Pantech plans RM250m investment
Pantech Group Holdings will invest up to RM250m over the next 5 years to develop its 26-acre land in Pasir Gudang, Johor as part of its plans to boost its manufacturing capability. The allocation will be used for the construction of a new corporate building at the site as well as to streamline manufacturing, warehousing and trading activities for the company, Pantech executive chairman and group managing director Datuk Jimmy Chew told the reporters. From the amount, he said the company has already invested RM100m into the setting up the new factory of its subsidiary, Pantech Stainless Steel and Alloy Industries SB (PSA), at the same site. (Malaysian Reserve)

F&N Q2 net profit up 55% to RM132m
Fraser & Neave Holdings Bhd’s (F&N) net profit for the 2Q ended 31 March increased by 54.9% to RM132m against corresponding quarter due positive performance in soft drinks division. The surge also came from the realisation of profit from the remaining properties in Fraser Business Park FBP via the divestment of Brampton Holdings SB with net cash inflow of RM36.3m. Brampton was a wholly-owned subsidiary of F&N which carried out the development of FBP. Revenue for the quarter under review was also up to RM1b from RM872.1m a year ago while earnings per share jumped to 36.8 sen from 23.9 sen last year. For the first six months of its current financial year, F&N’s net profit was up to RM2.03bn from RM1.8bn in the previous corresponding period. Revenue for the first half crossed the RM2bn from RM1.7bn a year ago. F&N recommended an interim single tier dividend of 20 sen per share and additionally a special interim dividend of 15 sen per share. For both of the proposed dividends, the ex-date and entitlement date would be on 5 July and 7 July. (StarBiz)

EPF to buy Rubber Research Institute land for RM3bn
The acquisition of the 3,000 acres of Rubber Research Institute Malaysia (RRIM) land in Sungai Buloh is expected to cost RM3bn, sources said. The signing between the purchaser, the Employees Provident Fund (EPF), and the Government is expected to be held in the near future, the sources said, adding that the development project would be carried out for the next 10 to 15 years. According to the sources, the EPF will have a master plan where it will allocate a few parcels and allow property developers to bid for those parcels; some parcels will be operated on a joint-venture basis while others may be sold outright via bids. The EPF has formed a company under Kwasa Land SB to be the master developer for the RRIM land in Sungai Buloh. (StarBiz)

20110506 1013 Global Market Related News.

DJIA chart reading : pullback correction upside biased.

Hang Seng chart reading : downside biased with possible pullback correction.

Asian Stocks Drop on U.S. Economy, Raw Material Producers Fall (Source: Bloomberg)
Asian stocks declined, sending the regional benchmark index to its biggest weekly drop since March, as rising jobless claims and declining consumer confidence in the U.S. added to signs the recovery in world’s biggest economy is weakening.

Asia Inflation Fight Spreads on Philippines, Malaysia Rate Moves (Source: Bloomberg)
The Philippines and Malaysia joined India and Vietnam in raising interest rates this week as nations in a region that led the global economic recovery intensified their fight against inflation.

Consumer Confidence Falls as Fuel Costs Increase (Source: Bloomberg)
Consumer confidence dropped last week to the lowest level in more than a month as rising fuel costs squeezed American household budgets.

Fed Presidents Signal Employment Growth Too Slow to Remove Record Stimulus (Source: Bloomberg)
Two Federal Reserve regional bank presidents indicated that the central bank won’t remove record stimulus soon, saying the Fed is missing its goal for full employment and inflation isn’t a long-term risk. Eric Rosengren, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, and San Francisco’s John C. Williams followed the lead taken by Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, who signaled last week that policy makers will keep stimulus in place after ending large-scale bond purchases in June.

Chief Executives in U.S. Forecast Gains in Sales, Employment, Survey Says (Source: Bloomberg)
Confidence among U.S. chief executive officers improved at the start of the second quarter as more business leaders forecast pickups in demand, employment and spending on equipment, a survey showed. The Young Presidents’ Organization gauge of sentiment rose to 64.1 in April, the highest since the survey began in the second quarter of 2009, from 63.5 in January, according to the Dallas-based group. A reading greater than 50 shows the executives’ outlook was more positive than negative.

Jobless Claims in U.S. Unexpectedly Jump on One-Time Events (Source: Bloomberg)
The number of claims for U.S. unemployment benefits unexpectedly rose last week, pushed up by auto-plant shutdowns and other unusual events that seasonal variations failed to take into account, the Labor Department said. Applications for jobless benefits jumped by 43,000 to 474,000 in the week ended April 30, the most since August, Labor Department figures showed today. A spring break holiday in New York, a new emergency benefits program in Oregon and auto shutdowns caused by the disaster in Japan were the main reasons for the surge, a Labor Department spokesman said as the data was released to the press.

U.S. Productivity Slowed in First Quarter, Labor Costs Rose (Source: Bloomberg)
The productivity of U.S. workers slowed in the first quarter and labor costs rose as a growing economy prompted companies to boost employment. The measure of employee output per hour increased at a 1.6 percent annual rate, exceeding the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News, after a 2.9 percent gain in the prior three months, figures from the Labor Department showed today in Washington. Expenses per employee climbed at a 1 percent rate after dropping 1 percent the prior quarter.

Japan Stocks Decline First Day in Four on U.S. Economy, Crude Oil Prices (Source: Bloomberg)
Japanese stocks fell for the first time in four trading days as slower growth in U.S. service industries, rising jobless claims and the biggest plunge in commodity prices in almost two years fueled concern the global economy is stalling.

Japan’s 10-Year Government Bonds Rise as Falling Stocks Spur Safety Demand (Source: Bloomberg)
Japan’s government bonds rose as falling stocks spurred demand for safer assets. Ten-year yields dropped 3.5 basis points to 1.165 percent as of 9:15 a.m. in Tokyo.

Yen Falls From Seven-Week High as Japan May Intervene: Dollar Weak on Jobs (Source: Bloomberg)
The yen fell from a seven-week high against the dollar on speculation Japan’s government will intervene to curb recent gains that may hurt the overseas competitiveness of the nation’s exporters.

Investors on alert for 'strong vigilance' at ECB
LONDON, May 5 (Reuters) - The euro kept close to a 17-month high against the dollar and stock markets hugged recent levels on Thursday as investors waited for the European Central Bank to give hints on future interest rate rises. "A possible Greek debt restructure, a Portuguese bailout, a sharp decline in Spanish house prices, a Finnish electoral revolt against bailouts -- all have been essentially ignored by the single currency," it said.  

German industrial orders fall 4.0 pct m/m in March
BERLIN, May 5 (Reuters) - German industrial orders fell unexpectedly in March, data showed on Thursday, missing expectations for a meagre gain as the Economy Ministry said companies reported an unusually low number of large orders.
Seasonally and price-adjusted order intake sank 4.0 percent compared to the previous month, far below the 0.1 percent growth expected by economists polled by Reuters, while February's figure was revised a half a percentage point lower.

European Stocks Slide for Third Day; Lloyds, SocGen Tumble After Earnings (Source: Bloomberg)
European stocks fell for a third day as bank earnings disappointed, commodities plunged and a jump in U.S. jobless-benefit claims fueled concern that the recovery of the world’s largest economy may falter. Lloyds Banking Group Plc (LLOY) slumped the most in almost a year after reporting a quarterly loss. Societe Generale SA, France’s second-largest bank by market value, dropped 5 percent as profit missed analyst estimates. Fresnillo Plc (FRES), the world’s biggest primary silver producer, and Essar Energy Plc (ESSR) sank more than 4 percent as the Standard & Poor’s GSCI Index of 24 raw materials tumbled the most in almost two years.

Trichet’s Dollar Comments Hint at Motivation for ECB Rate Move Restraint (Source: Bloomberg)
The euro may have helped European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet decide against a June interest-rate increase, economists said.

King’s Defense of Record-Low Rates in U.K. Is Bolstered by Economic Data (Source: Bloomberg)
Bank of England Governor Mervyn King has gained more ammunition in his battle to keep interest rates at a record low after reports suggested the economy isn’t yet strong enough for a withdrawal of emergency stimulus. The bank kept its benchmark rate at 0.5 percent today, as forecast by all 43 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. It also maintained its bond-purchase program at 200 billion pounds ($330 billion). King defeated calls last month from three policy makers to tighten policy to tame inflation that’s twice the central bank’s 2 percent target.

Portugal Says Economy to Shrink Twice as Much as Forecast Under Added Cuts (Source: Bloomberg)
Portugal’s economy will shrink twice as much as forecast this year as the government implements additional austerity measures to qualify for an international aid package of as much as 78 billion euros ($116 billion). Gross domestic product will decline 2 percent both in 2011 and 2012, Portuguese Finance Minister Fernando Teixeira dos Santos forecast today at a press conference in Lisbon to announce the bailout agreement with the European Union and the International Monetary Fund. That compares with the government’s March projection that GDP would shrink 0.9 percent this year and expand 0.3 percent in 2012.

Trichet Signals ECB Will Wait Until After June for Next Interest-Rate Move (Source: Bloomberg)
European Central Bank President Jean- Claude Trichet signaled the bank will wait until after June to raise interest rates again, wrong-footing some investors who had expected a quicker move to fight inflation. The euro plunged. “We are never pre-committed and we can increase rates whenever we judge it appropriate,” Trichet said at a press conference in Helsinki today after the ECB left its benchmark interest rate at 1.25 percent. He refrained from using the phrase “strong vigilance” that would have signaled a June rate increase, saying only that the ECB will monitor inflation risks “very closely.”

Portugal Wins EU-IMF Aid Package, Fanning European Backlash Over Bailouts (Source: Bloomberg)
Portugal won a 78 billion-euro ($116 billion) international aid package, fanning domestic controversy over budget cuts amid an election campaign and renewing discontent in Europe’s richer countries over bailouts. Emergency lending for Portugal lifted the cost of fighting Europe’s debt crisis to 256 billion euros just as speculation mounts that Greece, the country where it started, is plunging into a deeper financial hole.

Australia Prepares to Tighten Fiscal Policy in Hit to Consumers (Source: Bloomberg)
Australia’s government next week will unveil spending cuts aimed at assuring a return to a budget surplus, helping the nation’s central bank contain inflation at the expense of growth in the economy’s 20th year of expansion.

FOREX-Dollar sinks to 3-year lows as US rate view weighs
NEW YORK, May 4 (Reuters) - The dollar slumped to a three-year low on Wednesday and the currency's outlook darkened further as softer-than-expected employment and services sector data affirmed expectations U.S. interest rates would remain low this year.
The greenback also fell to a record against the Swiss franc and at one point dropped below 80.50 against the yen, the dollar's weakest level since major central banks intervened to weaken the Japanese currency on March 18.

20110506 1008 Global Commodities Related News.

Corn (Source: CME)
US corn futures end lower, unable to buck the broader commodity selling trend, despite ongoing supply worries and a sluggish start to the planting season. Market was also pressured by slowing export demand, a potential sign that high prices may be reducing demand for corn. Corn for July delivery, the most actively traded contract, ended down 20 3/4 cents, or 2.8%, to $7.08 3/4 a bushel. New crop December contract dropped 9 1/2 cents or 1.4% to $6.55 3/4.

Wheat (Source: CME)
US wheat futures slump, pressured by another wave of risk aversion from money managers turning cautious about commodities and global economic conditions. Wheat was swept up in the broader based commodity sell-off, as traders concerned about slower consumption amid economic worries weighed on prices, analysts say. A bounce in the US dollar and subsequent plunge in energy and metals overshadowed wheat crop and planting issues, analysts adds. CBOT July wheat settles down 18c, or 2.3%, at $7.54 a bushel.

Rice (Source: CME)
US rough rice futures closed limit down for the second consecutive day, with the July contract tumbling 5% to $14.14/hundredweight. The daily limit expanded to 75c. The standard limit is 50c. Broad based liquidation of commodities pressured the market despite issues for crops in Texas and planting concerns in the Delta, analysts say.

Commodities Sink Most Since 2009 as Stocks Fall (Source: CME)
Commodities plunged the most since 2009, led by oil and silver, and stocks posted the biggest three-day drop since March as selling of energy futures drove down equities. The dollar strengthened and Treasuries jumped. The Standard & Poor’s GSCI index of 24 commodities sank 6.5 percent at 4:32 p.m. in New York and has lost 9.9 percent this week. Oil tumbled 8.6 percent, the most in two years, to $99.80 a barrel. Silver dropped 8 percent, extending the biggest four- day slump since 1983 to 25 percent. The MSCI All-Country World Index of shares in 45 nations fell 1.1 percent. The dollar rose 2 percent versus the euro, making commodities quoted in the greenback more expensive for holders of other currencies. “It’s panic,” said Michael Shaoul, chairman of Marketfield Asset Management, which oversees $1 billion in New York. “You have those super crowded trades. Now you’re in liquidation mode.
There’s nothing to do with weak U.S. economic data. It’s not a global financial crisis. It’s a classic liquidation move in a crowded trade.”

World Food Prices Rise to Near-Record High as Inflation Speeds Up, UN Says (Source: Bloomberg)
World food prices rose to near a record in April as grain costs advanced, adding pressure to inflation that is accelerating from Beijing to Brasilia and spurring central banks to raise interest rates. An index of 55 commodities rose to 232.1 points from 231 points in March, the United Nations’ Rome-based Food and Agriculture Organization said in a report on its website today. The gauge climbed to an all-time high of 237.2 in February before dropping 2.6 percent in March.

India worried about farm labour costs- policy adviser
NEW DELHI, May 5 (Reuters) - India is worried about the impact on inflation from rising farm labour costs, although a good harvest should dowse some of the fire in consumer prices, Ashok Gulati, chairman of the agriculture ministry's commission on farm costs and prices, said.
The government had already purchased about 19 million tonnes of wheat by May 2 and is heading for nearly double the grain stocks it needs by end-June, he told Reuters in an interview.

India's weather office sees on schedule monsoon retreat
NEW DELHI, May 4 (Reuters) - India's June-September monsoon rains are expected to withdraw on schedule, the chief of the weather office said on Wednesday, unlike last year when late end-season rains hit sugar output in the world's biggest consumer.
Monsoon rains irrigate around 40 percent of farms in India, which is the world's second-biggest producer of rice, wheat, sugar and cotton, and are crucial for the livelihoods of many of the two-thirds of India's 1.2 billion who live in rural areas.

UK regulator approves Baltic ship futures screen
LONDON, May 4 (Reuters) - The Baltic Exchange has won UK regulatory approval to run a platform for centralised electronic trading of dry freight derivatives, which will go live shortly with support from some brokers, the exchange said.
Freight forward agreements (FFAs), which allow a buyer to take a position on freight rates at a point in the future, are not currently traded on an exchange.

U.S. corn extend gains on tight supply, forecast rain
SYDNEY, May 5 (Reuters) - U.S. corn futures rallied for a third straight day on Thursday, supported by tight old crop supplies in the United States and forecast rain likely to slow planting which is already running late in the Midwest corn belt. "Corn will continue to hold out on its own while there's no surprise there's some recovery in soybeans and wheat futures," said Brett Cooper, senior manager, markets, for FCStone Australia.  

Wheat yield potential low in western Kansas
RUSSELL SPRINGS, Kan., May 4 (Reuters) - Wheat fields in western Kansas showed below-average yield potential as dry weather has plagued the crop since planting in the fall, crop scouts on an annual tour found on Wednesday.
Scouts on one leg of the Wheat Quality Council's tour of hard red winter wheat fields in Kansas pegged average yield potential at 31 bushels per acre, based on a survey of eight fields. A year ago, scouts on the route which runs through counties such as Kearny, Logan and Wichita calculated wheat yields at 39 bushels per acre.

Rapid French maize planting almost over - growers
PARIS, May 4 (Reuters) - Planting of this year's maize crop in France is virtually finished after dry conditions enabled early and rapid fieldwork, growers group AGPM said on Tuesday.
The weather had also favoured fast and consistent emergence of maize (corn) plants, although crops may face risks subsequently from late frosts or persistent dryness, it said.

Russian crops set for near average weather in May
MOSCOW, May 4 (Reuters) - Weather conditions necessary for successful spring crops sowing and normal winter crop development will be close to average in May in the European and Asian parts of Russia, the weather forecasting service said.
Temperatures and precipitation for the whole month in most crop-growing regions will be close to the average registered over the years by the Rosgidromet service which was set in 1930, it said on its web site (

Spain grain stocks dwindle as harvest nears -trade
MADRID, May 4 (Reuters) - Spanish grain stocks in ports and warehouses are declining as dealers and consumers in the major importer wait to see how the domestic wheat and barley harvest fares next month, trade sources say.
Unlike northern European exporters, Spain is not suffering from drought, and although weather in May will be crucial, farmers are cautiously optimistic.

Mexican Sugarcane Growers Upbeat On Next Harvest (Source: CME)
The leader of Mexico's sugarcane growers says he's optimistic the 2011-2012 harvest will yield more sugar that the current one if the weather holds up. "If the upcoming season is a normal one with tropical storms and a few freezes, but less aggressive than this year, without a doubt we're going to surpass the current harvest," Carlos Blackaller, president of the National Union of Sugarcane Producers, said in an interview. High sugar prices have been luring Mexican farmers of other products into the sugar business, he said. Also, productivity has been increasing as well-financed producers use profits from high prices to hire more labor and to invest in improved agricultural practices. This should contribute to better production next season in Mexico, the world's sixth-largest sugar producer, Blackaller said. Mexico's sugar harvest usually begins in November and runs to July of the following year.
This season, Mexico is on track to produce about 5.2 million tons of sugar, up from 4.8 million tons during the 2009-2010 season, according to sugar officials. The average yield of sugarcane per hectare has been about 67 tons this season, and it could reach 70 tons next season, Blackaller said. He added that about 37% of plantations are using irrigation systems rather than relying on rainfall, and that percentage is expected to keep growing. Four years ago, about 30% of sugar plantations were irrigated. "There's a better use of water," Blackaller said. Rene Martinez, director of the national sugar chamber, which represents the country's sugar mills, was less optimistic about the 2011-2012 harvest, saying it didn't rain when it should have in January and February during planting for the next harvest. "It's an indicator that the 2010-2011 season will be a hard one, with production probably lower than this season's," Martinez said.
"Normally when you plant, you cross your fingers and hope for rain, and since it didn't rain we're expecting bad yields." Blackaller said industrial productivity has increased roughly 6%, and that many of Mexico's 54 sugar mills have been renovated and improved as their owners seek to take advantage of the bullish market. Migration has been a problem in the sugar industry in the past, with growers abandoning their plantations to find work in the U.S. or in Mexican cities. But this year, Blackaller said high prices have kept producers "rooted to their plantations." Mexico is expecting to export a record 1.3 million tons of sugar this year amid rising U.S. demand and the displacement of domestic sugar consumption with high fructose corn syrup.

Sugar at 8-month low, coffee consolidates
LONDON, May 5 (Reuters) - Sugar futures fell to fresh eight-month lows on Thursday as improving crop prospects weighed, while ICE arabica coffee prices eased to trade below the 34-year high hit earlier in the week. Sugar futures hit eight-month lows in early trading, as the improving supply outlook in key producers Brazil and Thailand was bearish for the market.

Vietnam raises 2011 coffee export f'cast to 1.3 mln T
HANOI, May 5 (Reuters) - Vietnam raised its coffee export forecast for calendar 2011 by 4 percent to 1.3 million tonnes, or 21.67 million bags, the Agriculture Ministry said, citing rising shipments of the commodity so far this year.
Higher coffee export volume from the world's top robusta producer, plus rising shipments from Indonesia, may help ease concern over tight supply which has been behind recent gains in  London's robusta futures market.

Greece 2011/12 sugar output to remain steady-attache
WASHINGTON, May 4 (Reuters) - Following are selected highlights from a report issued by a U.S. Department of Agriculture attache in Greece: "According to unofficial estimates, 2011/2012 sugar production, consumption and trade is forecast to remain steady from the previous year. The Hellenic Sugar Industry is the only sugar producer in Greece and one of the most significant agricultural industries of the country. Thus far, Greece does not produce bioethanol from sugar or other crops."

Brazil's CS cane crop falls behind schedule-Unica
SAO PAULO, May 4 (Reuters) - Some Brazilian sugar and ethanol mills are taking longer than expected to begin harvesting cane in the center-south region, as producers choose to wait for yields to improve, cane industry association Unica said on Wednesday.
Drier weather in the cane-rich region since mid-April has sped up harvesting that was delayed after Brazil suffered with the rainiest first-quarter in 40 years. Yet, the volume of cane per hectare and its quality both have been frustrating, Unica's technical director Antonio de Padua Rodrigues said.

Cuba says sugar harvest over at 6 pct above plan
HAVANA, May 4 (Reuters) - Cuba's sugar harvest ended 6 percent above expectations, the official daily Granma reported Wednesday, weighing in at around 1.15 million tonnes of raw sugar, Reuters has estimated.
"Thirty five mills, or 90 percent of those open, met their plans as did 12 of 13 provinces," the country's top sugar reporter, Juan Varela Perez, wrote in a page-long article summing up the season.

Indonesia offers 2 mln hectares for sugar plantations
JAKARTA, May 4 (Reuters) - Indonesia's forestry ministry has offered two million hectares of degraded and forest land to be used as sugar plantations, as it looks to boost domestic output in Southeast Asia's largest sugar consumer, an official said on Wednesday.
Prolonged rains in Java island, which supplies 60 percent of Indonesia's sugar output, delayed the domestic crushing season from May to June last year, and reduced the sugar content in cane, resulting in lower production.

French Cereals Cultivation Little Changed Through April 1 (Source: CME)
An estimated 9.3 million hectares of cereals were seeded and under cultivation as of April 1 in France, little changed from a year earlier, bolstered by plantings of soft wheat and spring barley, the French Agriculture Ministry's statistical arm Agreste reported. Plantings of soft wheat were up 95,000 hectares to 5 million as of the beginning of last month, with spring barley plantings up 34,000 hectares to 1.5 million. The agency noted, though, that durum wheat and winter barley plantings were down 34,000 and 69,000 hectares, respectively. Agreste said the expanse of land under cultivation for cereals not only was largely on a par with the previous year, but also in line with the five-year average of 2006-10. France is Europe's largest wheat producer, followed by Germany and Poland.

FAO: World Food Prices Unchanged In April (Source: CME)
World food prices held steady in April as a rise in international grain prices was offset by declines in the prices of sugar, rice and dairy, the United Nations' food body said. The Food and Agriculture Organization's food price index averaged 232 points last month, little changed from March but still 36% higher than the same time the year before. Grain prices in particular strengthened, with the FAO's cereal price index rising 5.5% on the month to leave it 71% above April 2010. Gains were led by an 11% rise in the price of maize and a 4% increase in wheat, the FAO said. With stocks now forecast to fall to their lowest level since the food crisis of 2008 by the end of the 2010-11 crop season, director of the FAO's trade and market division David Hallam said high prices look set to continue into next year.
"With demand continuing strong, prospects for a return to more normal prices hinge largely on how much production will increase in 2011 and how much grain reserves are replenished in the new season," he said. However, while grain prices remain at historically high levels, a 7% decline in the FAO's sugar index and a 2.4% fall in the price of dairy helped to keep the overall index stable. Large exports of rice also helped to keep prices for the world's most widely-consumed grain subdued, the FAO said.

EU: 2010 Agricultural Exports Up 21% To Record EUR91 Bln (Source: CME)
European Union agricultural exports jumped 21% in value to a record EUR91 billion in 2010, data published by the EU's executive arm showed, making the bloc a net exporter for the first time in four years. "We estimate that 75% of the increase in value of exports is driven by an increase in volume of sales, reflecting stronger demand, while 25% may be attributed to an increase in prices" said the European Commission. Exports were buoyed by a surge in demand from emerging economies such as China and Russia as a rebound in the global economy boosted world trade by 12% to a record high, the Commission said. Rising commodities prices and a weakening euro also helped the 27-nation bloc swing to an agricultural trade surplus of EUR6 billion, and it is now the world's second-largest agricultural exporter behind the U.S. "The surplus is largely due to growth in the value of exports after the contraction of trade in 2009 linked to economic crisis and the drop in commodity prices," the report said.
"Exchange rate fluctuations may also have contributed to the upsurge in exports, given the continued weakening of the euro against a number of major currencies in 2010." Exports to China and Hong Kong both posted a record-breaking 50% jump, with the value of sales to both now generating more than EUR1 billion each, the report said. But the largest absolute increase was to Russia, where the value of agricultural imports from the EU rose nearly one-third to EUR2.2 billion, making Russia the EU's second-largest market after the U.S. Severe drought in the Black Sea, which prompted both Kiev and Moscow to restrict grain exports, are also estimated to have given EU wheat exports a EUR557 million boost and cut imports by EUR270 million, the Commission said. Wheat was the EU's second-highest value export in 2010 at EUR3.4 billion.
The EU also remains by far the world's biggest agricultural importer with imports worth EUR83 billion in 2008-10, well ahead of the U.S. More than 70% of total EU imports come from developing countries, the report said.

Oil Rises 0.6 Percent, Erasing Earlier Declines; Down 12 Percent This Week (Source: Bloomberg)
Oil for June delivery rose 68 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $100.48 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 10:29 a.m. Sydney time. Crude earlier fell as much as 0.4 percent. Yesterday, the contract fell $9.44 to $99.80, the lowest settlement since March 16 and the biggest percentage drop since April 20, 2009. Prices are down 12 percent this week, the most since the week ended May 7, 2010.

Oil Trades Near Two-Month Low, Heads for Biggest Weekly Decline in a Year (Source: Bloomberg)
Oil traded near the lowest in almost two months in New York and headed for the biggest weekly drop in a year as a surprise increase in U.S. jobless claims added to signs of slower growth in the world’s largest crude consumer. Futures were 0.2 percent lower after declining 8.6 percent yesterday, the biggest fall in more than two years. U.S unemployment claims rose the most since August and German factory orders slipped. A report today may show the U.S. generated fewer jobs in April. Oil also slid as the dollar advanced after European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said he wouldn’t raise interest rates.

German metal traders see demand growth
HAMBURG, May 5 (Reuters) - German new and scrap metal demand is growing in 2011 but at a slightly lower rate than in 2010, the association of German metals traders VDM said on Thursday.
Some 57 percent of metals traders in a VDM survey reported better business volumes on the year in the first quarter of 2011 but 30 percent reported worse volumes and 13 percent the same.
"The sector has been experiencing solid growth since 2010, growth dynamics have only slowed slightly," the VDM said.

Iron Ore-Prices steady as Chinese mills turn cautious
BEIJING, May 5 (Reuters) - Iron ore prices in China were mostly steady on Thursday, with steel mills reluctant to make big purchases amid rising  uncertainties in the market.
Chinese consultancy Umetal said 63.5-63 percent Indian fines were being offered at around $188-190 per tonne, including freight, on Thursday, staying unchanged since this week.  

METALS-Copper falls to lowest since Dec on demand prospects
LONDON, May 5 (Reuters) - Copper fell to its lowest since December after data pointed to weakening demand in the United States and China, and on prospects the European Central Bank will remain firm in its inflation fight.
Copper for three-months delivery on the London Metal Exchange  was $8,870 per tonne at 1047 GMT, after touching a low of $8,870, in its biggest daily fall since early March.

PRECIOUS-Gold down, silver deepens its dive
LONDON, May 5 (Reuters) - Gold fell to its lowest in more than a week on Thursday and silver tumbled to a 5-week low, on track for its biggest weekly slide since 1983, caught up in a broader commodities sell-off.
A flurry of investor liquidation prompted gold to pare earlier gains and slide more than 1 percent to $1,495.70 a troy ounce, its lowest since April 26.

20110506 1007 Soy Oil & Palm Oil Related News.

 Soy Oil chart reading : downside biased with possible pullback correction.

Soybeans (Source: CME)
US soybean futures retreated for the fourth consecutive day, succumbing to the broad-based selling across commodity markets. The theme of large investors reducing risk in commodities kept pressure on prices, with slower export demand and the threat of some intended planted corn acres shifting to soybeans aiding the lower theme, analysts say. Soybeans for July delivery dropped 30 1/4 cents, or 2.2%, to $13.21 3/4 a bushel.

Soybean Meal/Oil (Source: CME)
US soy product futures tumble in unison with broader commodities. Soyoil led the products lower, with a nearly 10% drop in crude oil futures weighing on the market, analysts say. Crude oil influences soyoil due to its use in biofuel. CBOT July soyoil settled 2.5% lower at 55.73 cent/pound and July soymeal ended 1.4% lower at $347.50/short ton.

Palm oil bounces on technical buying; high stocks weigh
KUALA LUMPUR, May 5 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm futures recovered on Thursday on technical buying after hitting a two-week low the previous day although growing stocks limited gains. "The market today is surprisingly strong. There is some hope for exports to rise further in May but the strong stock build-up due to production will keep the rise in prices very, very modest," said a trader with a foreign commodities brokerage.

Cool rain stalls Midwest corn and soy
Continued rains and cool temperatures in the Midwest are stalling corn seedings and delaying spring fieldwork ahead of the soybean planting season. The corn planting pace continues to fall far behind average levels, leading to concern about potential production declines.
Dryness plagues the Plains hard red winter wheat region as the crop begins jointing an heading in the south. Some chance of rain over the next week in the east and north, away from the large acreage areas of the southwest.

Malaysia's April palm oil stocks seen at 6-month high
KUALA LUMPUR, May 5 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil stocks probably hit a six-month high in April from a month earlier as strong production outpaced modest growth in exports, a Reuters survey showed on Thursday.
Stocks in the world's No.2 producer likely rose nine percent to 1.76 million tonnes, marking the highest level since October but moderating the growth pace from March, a median survey of five plantation houses showed.