Monday, January 31, 2011

20110131 1817 FCPO EOD Daily Chart Study.

FCPO closed : 3809, changed : +109 points, volume : lower.
Bollinger band reading : side way range bound.
MACD Histrogram : recovering, buyer seems putting in more effort here.
Support : 3800, 3750, 3720 level.
Resistance : 3820, 3850, 3900 level.
Comment :
Flood in producing states like Sabah and Johor lead to deliveries delay push FCPO to rallied recorded gain with slowing down volume transacted despite export data released recorded drop while soy oil and crude oil futures price traded firmer.
Daily chart formed a wide range up bar candle after market opened gap up and surge higher to closed at the high of the day near upper Bollinger band resistant level while the band width turning inwards. Reading wise, market still likely to trade side way range bound but fundamentally supply concern due to flood issue may push price testing higher resistant level.
When to buy : buy at support or weakness with quick cut loss and profit target.
When to sell : sell at resistant or strength with quick cut loss and profit target.

20110131 1740 FKLI EOD Daily Chart Study.

FKLI closed : 1517 changed : +0.5 point,  volume : lower.
Bollinger band reading : downside biased with pullback correction.
MACD Histrogram : turned upward, seller taking profit.
Support : 1515, 1500, 1485 level.
Resistance : 1530, 1540, 1550 level.
Comment :
FKLI ended 1 tick higher with slow volume traded on the last transaction day of the month as regional market closed mostly lower partly due to Egypt political condition intensified.
Daily chart formed an wide range up bar candle after market opened gap down severely due to panic selling and recovered upward to closed near the high of the day doing pullback correction after market opened way below lower Bollinger band with the bandwidth turning outward. Reading wise, market are current having pullback correction within a downside biased market development.
When to buy : buy at support or weakness with quick cut loss and profit target.
When to sell : sell at resistant or strength with quick cut loss and profit target.

20110131 0939 Global Economic Related News.

U.S: Growth accelerates in 4Q10 as consumers boost spending. Gross domestic product grew at a 3.2% annual rate, Commerce Department figures showed. Excluding stockpiles, the economy rose at a 7.1% pace, the most since 1984. (Source: Bloomberg)

U.S: Consumer sentiment in January falls less than forecast. The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan final index of consumer sentiment decreased to 74.2 from 74.5 in December. (Source: Bloomberg)

Japan: Deflation eased in December and the job market strengthened, supporting the central bank's view that the economy may pick up this quarter. Consumer prices excluding fresh food declined 0.4% YoY, the statistics bureau said, the smallest drop since 2009. The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.9% from 5.1%, the first decrease since September. (Source: Bloomberg)

S. Korea: Industrial output rose 9.8% YoY in December, supporting the case for the central bank to further raise interest rates. Output climbed a revised 10.7% YoY in November. (Source: Bloomberg)

South Korea: Manufacturers’ confidence declines to two-month low
South Korean manufacturers’ confidence fell to a two-month low as rising commodity prices and an appreciation in the Won clouded the outlook for exporters. An index measuring expectations for February fell to 91 from 92 for January, the Bank of Korea said. A measure of non-manufacturing companies’ expectations slipped to 84 from 87. “Sentiment has been under pressure due to rising raw material costs, sluggish domestic demand and currency rates,” the central bank said. (Bloomberg)

Spain: Approves pension bill in bid to woo investors
The Spanish government agreed to raise the retirement age in a renewed bid to restore investor confidence after a EUR20bn (USD27bn) plan to shore up savings banks failed to tame the nation’s borrowing costs. Four months after Spanish workers disrupted transport and broadcasts in a general strike aimed partly at the pension plan, the Cabinet approved a bill to increase the retirement age to 67 from 65, Deputy Prime Minister Alfredo Perez Rubalcaba told reporters. (Bloomberg)

UK: Consumer confidence plummets most since 1994
UK consumer confidence plunged the most since 1994 this month as an increase in sales tax hurt shoppers’ appetite for spending, a report showed. The index of sentiment fell 8 points from December to minus 29, the lowest since March 2009. All five measures of the index fell, with a gauge on the climate for making major purchases dropping 22 points to minus 29. (Bloomberg)

US: Payrolls probably rose at start of 2011
Payrolls in January probably grew at a pace that underscores the Federal Reserve’s concern it will take years for the job market to recover from the recession, economists said before a report this week. Employment increased by 140,000 workers this month after a 103,000 gain in December, according to the median forecast of 59 economists surveyed ahead of Labor Department data on 4 Feb. The report may also show the jobless rate increased to 9.5% from 9.4%. (Bloomberg)

US: Growth accelerates on consumer spending
The US economy accelerated in the 4Q of 2010 as consumer spending climbed by the most in more than four years. GDP grew at a 3.2% annual rate, Commerce Department figures showed, falling short of the 3.5% median forecast of 85 economists surveyed because of a slowdown in inventories. Excluding stockpiles, the economy rose at a 7.1% pace, the most since 1984. (Bloomberg)

20110131 0938 Malaysia Corporate Related News.

Alam Maritim: Bidding for RM400m jobs. Alam Maritim Resources Bhd is bidding for RM400m worth of jobs this year to ride on the recovering sector which was subdued last year due to the global economic crisis. The offshore marine transportation service provider will submit bids in Indonesia, Brunei and Sabah as part of the group's long-term growth plan. (Source: Business Times)

Gaming: Genting said to be keen on Pan Malaysian Pools. The Genting group is making a bid for Pan Malaysian Pools Sdn Bhd (PMP), the number forecast operator (NFO) owned by Tanjong plc. Its bid is in the higher end among bids that have been submitted. The other bids are believed to be between RM1.8b to RM2.5b. (Source: The Edge Financial Daily)

Infrastructure: No rates hike on two highways. The Prime Minister announced that the toll rates for the Kuala Lumpur-Karak Expressway and East Coast Expressway Phase One would not be increased for the next five years. The decision was made following a review of transportation costs, including restructuring of the toll charges and to ease the people's burden. Furthermore, no compensation would be paid to the concessionaires of the two highways. (Source: The Star)

Infrastructure: All eyes and ears on second MRT line. The second mass rapid transit (MRT) line, which circles the Kuala Lumpur city centre (KLCC) orbital and known as the "circle line", is already in the final planning stage. The details are expected to be announced in March. The circle line is expected to cover the hotspots surrounding the KLCC, Jalan Bukit Bintang, the new Kuala Lumpur International Financial District in Dataran Perdana, KL Ecocity, Pusat Bandar Damansara and Sentul, among others. (Source: The Star)

Regulations: Changes in takeover rules. The Securities Commission (SC) and Bursa Malaysia raised the minimum shareholder approval threshold for takeovers via asset and liabilities route to 75% from the previous simple majority minimum. Other significant changes include the need for companies undergoing privatisation to obtain independent advice to ascertain if the offer is fair and reasonable and to ensure high net-worth investors are well informed of any structured products being offered to them. (Source: The Star)

BN retains Tenang seat with bigger majority
Barisan Nasional (BN) retained the Tenang State Assembly when its candidate, Mohd Azahar Ibrahim, defeated PAS candidate Normala Sudirman with a bigger majority. Nohd Azahar garnered 6,699 votes while Normala had 2.992, giving the BN a majority of 3,707 votes. In the last general election, the BN candidate, the late Datuk Sulaiman Taha beat Md Saim Siran, from PAAS, with a majority of 2,492 votes. (Financial Daily)

MTD Capital gets RM3.5bn offer for toll operations
MTD Capital Bhd has received a RM3.53bn offer for its infrastructure units, MTD Prime SB and Metramac Corp SB. This was prior to an announcement by the Prime Minister Datuk Seri Mohd Najib Razak about the restructuring of toll operations of concessions operated by both companies. In a filing to Bursa Malaysia last Friday, the company said it had received a letter containing the offer from Datuk Nik Hussain Abdul Rahman and Datuk Azmil Khalili Khalid (joint offerors) to conduct the acquisition through a special purpose vehicle. (Malaysian Reserve)

Sapuracrest inks RM149m charter agreement
Sapuracrest Petroleum Bhd, an oil and has service provider, has signed a charter agreement valued at RM149.5m to lease its drilling rig to Seadrill UK Ltd, Seadrill will lease the so-called T-10 drilling rig owned by Crest Tender Rigs Pte Ltd, a 51% indirect subsidiary of Sapuracrest, for two years at USD61,000 (RM186,294) per day beginning the fourth-quarter of last year, according to a filing to Bursa Malaysia last Friday. The T-10 would be used by Seadrill UK to perform works under the contract with Chevron Thailand Exploration and Production Ltd for offshore drilling activities in Thailand.(Malaysian Reserve)

Semen Gresik keen to buy Malaysian cement company
PT Semen Gresik, Indonesia's largest cement producer is mulling to acquire a Malaysian cement company this year to boost its production capacity. Semen Gresik president director Dwi Soetjipto said the company will expand its business overseas this year, by initially focusing on acquiring a Malaysia-based cement company. "Semen Gresik is prepared to realise its acquisition plan towards cement companies located in Malaysia. This acquisition will enable the company to improve its production with an additional of 1.5m tonnes of cement," he said in a statement posted on Semen Gresik's website. He declined to explain in more specific details concerning the target company as well as the value of the acquisition. But speculation is that Semen Gresik is eyeing to buy Cement Industries of Malaysia Bhd (CIMA), a unit of UEM Group. According to Jakarta Post's online news portal, Semen Gresik is looking to buy CIMA, which has an 18% share of the Malaysian cement market. (BT)

Melati unit, PKNS in RM1.6bn project
Melati Ehsan Holdings Bhd’s wholly-owned subsidiary, Bayu Melati SB, has entered a joint venture agreement with PKNS Holdings SB to undertake a mixed commercial development with gross sales value of RM1.62bn. The projected gross costs value of the development is about RM1.07bn but Bayu Melati may propose improvements to the building and layout plans, design and building works on the 75,473sq m freehold commercial land in Kelana Jaya, currently with a sport complex known as “Kompleks Sukan PKNS”. In a filing with Bursa Malaysia last Frifay, Melati Ehsan said the proposed project entailed two blocks of service apartments, one block of Soho offices, one sports complex, two blocks of office tower, one shopping mall, one hotel, one performing arts centre and car park lots. (StarBiz)

Bintai Kinden bags RM86m Singapore job
Bintai-Kinden Corp Bhd has won a RM85.82m contract to build and maintain the ventilation, electrical and fire protection system for a mixed development project in Singapore. Works are expected to be completed by January 2013, according to a filing to Bursa Malaysia last Friday. (Malaysian Reserve)

Latexx to make announcement
Latexx Partners Bhd, which requested for a trading suspension last Friday, is expected to make a material announcement today. Speculation about a possible privatisation of Latexx had been rife following a news report. In a stock exchange filing, Latexx said it had received a proposal which was material in nature and that the company would make an announcement on 31 Jan. The Edge FinancialDaily reported on Thursday, 28 Jan that there was talk of privatisation of Latexx amid the continuous rise in latex price and the weakening US dollar which have hit the once-favoured rubber gloves industry. According to Bloomberg data, BT Capital Sdn Bhd is the major shareholder of Latexx with 49.57 million shares or a 22.55% stake, followed by Latexx's executive chairman and CEO Low Bok Tek 15.47 million shares (7.04%) and Lembaga Tabung Haji with 11.68 million shares (5.32%). (Various press reports)

20110131 0936 Global Market Related News.

Wheat up 0.8 pct as market eyes Egypt unrest, firm oil
SINGAPORE, Jan 31 (Reuters) - U.S. wheat futures bounced back, rising 0.8 percent following a decline of more than 2 percent on Friday as a civil unrest in the world's biggest wheat importer, Egypt, kept investors on tenterhooks. 
"We need to find out more before making claims of declining Egyptian imports and we need to remember that unrest which is affecting northern Africa is largely due to food price inflation," said Luke Matthews, a commodity strategist at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia.  

Gold firms after rally on Egypt, ETF at 8-mth low
SINGAPORE, Jan 31 (Reuters) - Gold edged up, extending gains seen in the previous session as buying continued on fears the unrest in Egypt will spread across the Middle East, but selling in the physical side and a drop in ETF holdings to an eight-month low capped gains.
"We need to see the holdings in the ETF increase again before we can see gold prices start to head up and make a new high. ETF in itself is a reflection of a longer-term demand for gold," said Ong Yi Ling, investment analyst at Phillip Futures in Singapore.

Asia stocks fall, oil nears $100 on Egypt fears
HONG KONG, Jan 31 (Reuters) - Brent crude futures climbed near $100 a barrel and Asian stocks fell, hit by fears of unrest throughout the Middle East sparked by deadly protests in Egypt.
"To the extent that the instability continues, investor reaction will most likely push oil and Treasury bond prices higher, and global equities lower." Mohamed El-Erian, co-chief investment officer at bond giant PIMCO, told Reuters.

OIL: Brent oil surges to 28-month peak on Egypt unrest
SINGAPORE, Jan 31 (Reuters) - Brent oil surged to a 28-month peak near $100 a barrel on Monday on concerns anti-government protests in Egypt could spread instability across the Middle East and disrupt oil shipments through the Suez Canal.
"The Egyptian situation looks to be the primary factor ... on what this could mean in terms of stability for such a vital region for energy production," said David Land, chief market analyst at CMC Markets.

COMMODITIES: Oil near $100 in London, gold jumps, on Egypt scare
NEW YORK, Jan 28 (Reuters) - Oil closed near $100 a barrel in London and gold ended with its biggest daily gain in two months while wheat slumped on Friday as Egypt's worsening political crisis prompted mixed reaction in commodity markets.
"I think some people are starting to worry about what we call 'normal commercial trade,'" Dan Basse, president at Chicago's AgResource Co, said, commenting on the impact street protests in Egypt could have on movement of wheat through the country.  

GLOBAL MARKETS: Asian stocks to fall on Egyptian turmoil
WELLINGTON, Jan 31 (Reuters) - Asian stocks are likely to fall on Monday, with safer assets such as gold and bonds likely to benefit as unrest in Egypt continues to rattle world markets.
"The greater fear is that the turmoil could spread to other Middle East countries, including even Saudi Arabia. If that happens, then all bets on oil prices are off," Zollner said.  

UK Agriculture Minister Calls For Cuts To EU Farm Subsidies (Source: CME)
The U.K.'s agriculture minister called for substantial cuts to the European Union's farming subsidies program at a time when many of the bloc's member states are facing economic hardship. In a response to proposed reforms to the EUR55 billion scheme, Caroline Spelman said in a letter to E.U. farm commissioner Dacian Ciolos that the subsidies should face the same "hard choices being made elsewhere in the E.U." E.U. officials have put forward a paper of plans to reform the controversial Common Agricultural Policy from 2014. But the proposals contain no details of any cut to the size of the payments given to farmers.
"There must be a very substantial cut to the CAP budget in the next financial framework," the letter said. "We also want to see reform of trade-distorting elements of the CAP, particularly with respect to subsidies." The letter comes as the E.U. Commission released figures showing that 80% of beneficiaries received around 20% of the direct payments in 2009 in the E.U. group of 12.

Argentina Grain Port Strike Enters Third Day, Affects More Ports (Source: CME)
A strike that has disrupted activity at key river ports that ship a significant portion of Argentina's grain and edible oil exports to global markets entered its third day on Friday, with unionized workers blocking access to additional ports. Walter Cabrera, secretary general of the San Lorenzo chapter of Argentina's powerful Confederacion General de Trabajadores union umbrella group, said workers are currently picketing 17 ports to demand higher wages for its members who work in and around the ports. "We are demanding equal wages for all the workers in the oilseed crushing/port complex," Cabrera said in a telephone interview. The union is allowing security guards and some crushing mill workers to enter the ports to ensure a minimum level of industrial safety, he added.
Spokespersons for the San Lorenzo Chamber of Commerce, whose members include grain exporters, and the industry trade group representing Argentina's edible-oil makers and grain exporters, CIARA-CEC, weren't immediately available for comment. CIARA-CEC called on the federal government through the Labor Ministry to intervene in the conflict. The Labor Ministry can order workers to lift a strike while union leaders and employers negotiate a settlement. Labor Ministry officials weren't available for comment. The conflict started Wednesday at about 10 ports and related crushing plants that produce edible oils largely from soybeans near the city of San Lorenzo, Santa Fe Province. About three quarters of Argentina's agriculture exports are shipped from river ports clustered in and around the city of Rosario. Argentina leads the world in soymeal and soyoil exports, and is the third-largest soybean exporter.
San Lorenzo, located about 20 kilometers north of Rosario, alone is home to a dozen ports operated by major international grain exporters, including Cargill, Noble Argentina SA, Louis Dreyfus SA, and Bunge Ltd. Picketers affiliated with the CGT San Lorenzo are demanding the same minimum wage of 5,000 pesos ($1,256) a month won by the edible-oil-workers union in San Lorenzo last month following a strike. According to Cabrera, his workers earn about half that amount. The strike's impact on grain and edible oil shipments and the prices for those commodities will ultimately depend on the duration of the dispute. January is typically a period of low activity at the grain ports clustered along the Parana River as farmers only recently finished soy planting, while the sunflower harvest is still in its early stages. Cabrera said its to early to say when the conflict will end, adding that the union hasn't had any contact with the San Lorenzo Chamber of Commerce or grain exporters since the strike began.

US, Japan told time running out to deal with debt
TOKYO/WASHINGTON, Jan 28 (Reuters) - Japan and the United States faced new pressure to confront their swollen budget deficits as the IMF and rating agencies demanded more evidence they can bring their public debts under control.
The International Monetary Fund said the G7's two biggest economies needed to spell out credible deficit-cutting plans before the markets lose patience and dump their bonds.

U.S. manufacturing profits suggest stronger economy
NEW YORK/CHICAGO, Jan 27 (Reuters) - U.S. manufacturing companies posted higher-than-expected results, as sharply improved margins boosted profits amid strong industrial demand and growth in emerging markets.
Companies including Caterpillar Inc , Tyco International Ltd  and Eaton Corp  reported strong sales and earnings, and investors were looking ahead for signs the industrial rebound would begin to affect the wider economy and boost employment.

Mixed U.S. data points to growth momentum
WASHINGTON, Jan 27 (Reuters) - U.S. housing and factory data on Thursday showed the economy still gaining strength in December but at a pace unlikely to cause the Federal Reserve to rethink its stimulus program. Economists said they expected Friday's reading of gross domestic product to show the world's biggest economy picking up speed albeit short of the pace needed to bring down unemployment significantly.

PRECIOUS-Gold up from 4-month lows ahead of U.S. data
LONDON, Jan 28 (Reuters) - Gold edged higher as caution dogged the financial markets ahead of U.S. growth data due later, having earlier hit a near four-month low as a better economic outlook dented safe-haven buying of the metal.
Spot gold  was bid at $ an ounce at GMT against $1,312.24 late in New York on Thursday. U.S. gold futures for February delivery  fell $ an ounce to $.

FOREX-Yen revives on Japan exporter demand
LONDON, Jan 28 (Reuters) - The yen rose on Friday as demand from Japanese exporters and speculators helped the currency to claw back some losses from a broad sell-off triggered the previous day by a cut to the country's credit rating.
The euro was supported near a two-month high versus the dollar, and analysts said the U.S. currency may struggle if growth data later in the day fails to change the view that Federal Reserve interest rates are set to remain at rock-bottom levels.

Wheat steady near 29-month top, soy eases on LatAm rains
SINGAPORE, Jan 28 (Reuters) - U.S. wheat futures edged higher trading close to 29-month highs as investors awaited news on import tenders from the Middle East and Africa for price direction, while soybeans were under pressure following forecasts of rains in Argentina.
"I think the wheat market is looking forward to a Saudi tender which might provide support to the market but we have to see how much they buy," said Adam Davis, a senior grains trader at Melbourne-based Merricks Capital.

Indonesia suspends rice, soybean duties to combat inflation
JAKARTA, Jan 28 (Reuters) - Indonesia will suspend import duties on rice, soybeans and wheat as part of government efforts to fight inflation and the president warned about the global risks posed by scarce resources, as countries grapple with escalating food costs.
Rising food prices across many parts of the world have been partly responsible for a number of protests in the last week and world leaders warned on Thursday they risked stoking more unrest and even war.

Argentine grains firms ask gov't to resolve strike
BUENOS AIRES, Jan 27 (Reuters) - Grains exporters called on the Argentine government on Thursday to help end a pay strike before it disrupts shipments from one of the world's biggest food suppliers.
Soy-crushing plants in and around the central city of Rosario account for about 80 percent of soybean oil and meal output from the top global exporter, but activity is slow at this time of year because the harvest has yet to begin.

Euro rally falters, stocks eye U.S. GDP
LONDON, Jan 28 (Reuters) -The euro's rally against the dollar faltered and stocks opened weaker ahead of U.S. fourth-quarter GDP numbers on profit taking, although both look set to end the week in the black. "Barring a nasty return of sovereign-debt related concern (still likely at some point), the likelihood of the ECB leading the Fed by some distance in its tightening cycle suggests EUR/USD can rise further," he added.

201101231 0933 Soy Oil & Palm Oil Related News.

ITS CPO down 3.6% to 1,239,758 tonnes for the period of 1~31 Jan 2011.
SGS CPO down 4.6% to 1,202,368 tonnes for the period of 1~31 Jan 2011.

Floods in Malaysia delay palm oil deliveries, prices climb
KUALA LUMPUR, Jan 31 (Reuters) - Rain-driven floods have disrupted Malaysian oil palm estates from transporting the vegetable oil to refineries and ports, which may trigger a supply squeeze and boost prices.
La Nina-induced rains have inundated some estates in Sabah state on Borneo island and southern Johor state on mainland Malaysia -- the top oil palm growing regions that account for more than 50 percent of total output.

Soy product futures ended lower after prices jockeyed in both positive and negative territory over the course of Friday's session. Soyoil initially spiked to a 3-session high, bolstered by sharply higher crude oil futures and strength in world vegoil markets. However, futures backpedaled after midday, as traders booked profits ahead of the weekend in unison with soybeans, analysts said. CBOT March soyoil ended 0.14 cents or 0.2% lower at 57.27 cents per pound, and March soymeal traded $0.40 or 0.1% lower at $377.00 a short ton. (Source: CME)

Palm up on supply concerns; set for 1st monthly loss in 7 months
KUALA LUMPUR, Jan 28 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures extended gains as worries over heavy rains stalling harvesting lifted prices.
"The floods are not really serious and we are in a low production period, but if heavy rains continue in Johor for more than a week, we may have a problem," said industry analyst M.R. Chandran.

Argentine soy crop seen stable on recurring rains
BUENOS AIRES, Jan 27 (Reuters) - Argentina's soy crop is seen stable at 47 million tonnes after widespread rains, but with the key yield-setting stages ahead, soybean fields remain at risk, Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said on Thursday.
Two weeks of heavy rains have brought new life to soy crops in parts of Buenos Aires province, the top soy growing region, which could ease fears that the La Nina-triggered dryness will cripple Argentina's soy output.