Tuesday, April 5, 2011

20110405 1818 FCPO EOD Daily Chart Study.

FCPO closed : 3366, changed : -16 points, volume : higher.
Bollinger band reading : correction range bound little downside biased.
MACD Histrogram : rising higher, buyer increasing exposure.
Support : 3350, 3300, 3270, 3250, 3200 level.
Resistance : 3420, 3450, 3470, 3500 level.
Comment :
FCPO closed registered small loss with better volume traded while soy oil price trading firmer after overnight closed recorded small gain. 
Daily chart formed a down doji bar candle with ;lower shadow positioned between upper and middle Bollinger band with the bandwidth narrowing after market opened gap up, tested little higher and retreated downward before recovered partial of the day losses to closed off the low of the day.
Chart reading suggesting a correction range bound little downside biased market development testing support and  resistance level.
When to buy : buy at support or weakness with quick cut loss and profit target.
When to sell : sell at resistant or strength with quick cut loss and profit target.

20100405 1730 FCPO EOD Daily Chart Study.

FKLI closed : 1549 changed : +7 points, volume : lower.
Bollinger band reading : pullback correction upside biased.
MACD Histrogram : turned downward, buyer profit taking.
Support : 1540, 1530, 1515, 1500 level.
Resistance : 1550, 1565, 1580, 1590 level.
Comment :
FKLI closed recorded losses for the first time after 5 days of climbs with lower volume transacted doing 5 points discount to cash market while regional market traded mostly lower with China, Hong Kong and Taiwan closed for holiday.
Daily chart formed a down doji bar candle with longer lower shadow closed below upper Bollinger band level after market opened gap down little lower, sliding downward before recover partial of the loss to closed off the low of the day. 
Technical reading suggesting a pullback correction upside biased market development with the pullback correction possible testing lower support level
When to buy : buy at support or weakness with quick cut loss and profit target.
When to sell : sell at resistant or strength with quick cut loss and profit target.

20110405 1621 Global Market & Commodities Related News.

Euro edges off 5-mth high; Brent crude above $121
SINGAPORE, April 5 (Reuters) - Oil sat near a two-and-a-half year high scaled on fears of further supply disruptions from the Middle East and Africa and the euro edged off a five-month high against the dollar on Tuesday, with an expected euro zone rate rise already priced in.
"For the ECB, an April interest rate hike is a done deal and one or two more hikes are priced in," said Masafumi Yamamoto, chief FX strategist at Barclays Bank.

Brent crude near 2-1/2 year high; spreads widen on unrest
SINGAPORE, April 5 (Reuters) - Oil prices hovered near their highest levels since 2008, with Brent near $121 a barrel, as unrest in the Middle East and North Africa supported prices and on delays to elections in Nigeria.
"Anything that affects Brent or Africa is going to be important, especially under the current situation in Libya," said Tony Nunan, a risk manager with Tokyo-based Mitsubishi Corp. 

US gasoline price rises 9 cents to April record-Govt
WASHINGTON, April 4 (Reuters) - U.S. gasoline prices soared nearly 9 cents over the last week to $3.68 a gallon, the highest pump price on record for April, the Energy Department said on Monday.
The national price for regular unleaded gasoline is up 86 cents from a year ago, based on the department's weekly survey of fuel prices at service stations.

Libya rebels may sell first oil cargo this week
LONDON/ATHENS, April 4 (Reuters) - Libyan rebels may this week sell the first tanker full of crude since an uprising against leader Muammar Gaddafi halted exports from the North African country and sent oil prices higher.
Satellite ship tracking data AIS showed on Monday that oil tanker Equator, which can carry up to 1 million barrels of oil, was due to arrive at the rebel-held east Libyan port of Marsa el Hariga on Tuesday. The tanker is currently anchored in Egyptian waters.
UK prompt gas falls as LNG supply hits record
LONDON, April 4 (Reuters) - Prompt British gas prices fell on Monday as input from liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals hit record highs and mild spring weather weighed on demand for gas.
Contracts across the curve rose in line with bullish crude prices, which traded at the highest level since summer 2008 as unrest in the Middle East and North Africa fuelled further concerns about oil supplies.

Corn hovers near record high, short supply woes persist
SYDNEY, April 5 (Reuters) - U.S. corn futures edged up to stay near record highs, erasing early losses, as continued worries over tight supplies in top exporter the United States helped stretch a rally.   
"There's enough bullish news in the market to warrant further gains in corn prices," said Luke Mathews, commodity strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, citing "catastrophically tight U.S. corn supplies and worries around the potential weather in the Northern Hemisphere for the new crop" which may hit yields.

Cuba buys 250,000 T rice from Vietnam -newspaper
HANOI, April 5 (Reuters) - Cuba has bought 250,000 tonnes of Vietnamese rice, a state-run newspaper reported on Tuesday, after the Latin American nation reported production falling at home last year.
The purchase was under a government contract signed recently, Vietnam Food Association Chairman Truong Thanh Phong was quoted by the Nguoi Lao Dong (Labourer) newspaper as saying. He gave no further details of the deal.

US winter wheat rated below year ago on dry weather
CHICAGO, April 4 (Reuters) - Condition ratings for the U.S. winter wheat crop were far below year-ago levels due to dry weather in key production areas, but spring seeding of corn was off to a strong start in far southern production areas, according to a U.S. Agriculture Department report released on Monday.
Only 37 percent of the U.S. winter wheat crop was rated in good to excellent condition as of April 3, compared with 65 percent in that category a year ago, according to the USDA's first weekly crop progress and condition report of the season.

Copper up, Bernanke cools inflation fears, Chinalco upbeat
SINGAPORE, April 5 (Reuters) - Base metals rose in London, up 0.4 percent on average, driven by copper which gained on the back of dovish comments on inflation from Fed chairman Ben Bernanke and on a positive market assessment from Chinalco.
"The expectation of growing consumption globally, as well as the supply picture, will lend strong support for copper prices," Liu Xiangming, vice president and executive director of Aluminum Corporation of China (Chinalco), said at the Asia Mining Conference in Singapore.

Japan earthquake revives miners' fears in Chile
SANTIAGO, April 4 (Reuters) - The earthquake and tsunami that devastated Japanese ports, roads and factories last month have revived fears over the vulnerability of the key copper mining industry across the Pacific in quake-prone Chile.
Chile, the world's top copper producer, is still rebuilding after a huge quake just over a year ago caused an estimated $30 billion in damage and lost economic productivity.

Silver hits 31-year top, iShares Silver at record
SINGAPORE, April 5 (Reuters) - Silver jumped to its highest since early 1980 on inflation concerns, a rise in ETF holdings to another record and growing industrial demand, while gold hardly moved as the euro held below this week's five-month high versus the dollar.
"We do see a lot of demand for silver from China, so we think silver used in solar panels have increased. We think China will have a lot of demand for silver in the medium to long term," said Natalie Robertson, commodities strategist at ANZ in Melbourne. 

20110405 1246 Global Market & Commodities Related News.

GLOBAL MARKETS: Euro sticks near 5-month high; silver surges
SINGAPORE, April 5 (Reuters) - Worries about global inflationary pressures pushed silver to a 31-year high on Tuesday and kept the euro close to a five-month high against the dollar.
Asian stocks were little changed following a desultory session on Wall Street, although shares in resources companies gained on the back of rising commodities prices. 

Oil : Oil climbs to highest since 2008 on supply concerns
NEW YORK, April 4 (Reuters) - Oil prices rose to their highest since 2008 on Monday, with Brent surging above $121 a barrel as Nigerian election delays and a short-lived strike in Gabon joined a list of geopolitical supply concerns.
"Brent is up on Libya, Yemen unrest and the Nigerian election," said Phil Flynn, analyst at PFGBest Research in Chicago.

Libyan rebels urgently want to sell oil, gas-UN
UNITED NATIONS, April 4 (Reuters) - Libyan rebels fighting forces loyal to leader Muammar Gaddafi are worried about their financial resources and want to start exporting both oil and natural gas, the U.N. special envoy to Libya said on Monday.
Abdelilah al-Khatib, the former foreign minister of Jordan and U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon's special envoy to Libya, spoke to the Security Council about his recent visits to Libya, where he met with the rebels' Transitional National Council and members of Gaddafi's government in Tripoli.

NATURAL GAS: Natural gas ends lower on milder weather outlook
NEW YORK, April 4 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures lost nearly 2 percent on Monday, pressured along with weaker cash gas by comfortable supplies and milder Northeast and Midwest weather that has tempered heating demand.
"The weather is finally getting warmer and in turn electricity demand is weakening," said the Schork Group in Monday's Schork Report, noting there seemed to be little other support for natural gas prices besides technicals and the cost of coal.

EURO COAL: Euro Coal-Coal prices rise on German utility demand
LONDON, April 4 (Reuters) - European coal futures prices were pushed up on Monday as strong demand from Germany's power sector drove the market, traders said.
"German demand for physical coal has been pretty strong in the past week as the big utilities are ramping up coal power generation, and this has fed into the far end of the curve as the market expects stronger German coal demand in coming years to make up for lost nuclear capacity," one coal trader said.

COMMODITIES: Corn matches record high; oil hits 2-1/2-year peak
NEW YORK, April 4 (Reuters) - Corn matched a record high from 2008 on Monday on unrelenting demand amid thin stockpiles, and oil hit 2-1/2-year peaks as crude supplies remained under threat from crises in Yemen and Libya.
"Many of the variables that were front and center last week continue to dominate the headlines," Edward Meir, senior commodities analyst at brokerage MF Global in New York, wrote in a commentary on oil.

20110405 1120 Local & Global Economic Related News.

Malaysia: China expected to remain Malaysia's largest trading partner
China is expected to remain as Malaysia's largest trading partner this year, helped by closer trading ties, said Deputy International Trade and Industry Minister Datuk Jacob Dungau Sagan. China was Malaysia's largest trading partner in 2010, accounting for 12.6% of total trade. Trade between both countries increased more than six-fold over the past 10 years, reaching USD45.66bn (RM138.35bn) in 2010. "China is continuing to play a greater role in the global economy and we have also strengthened our ties with them through Asean FTAs (free trade agreements). Also with the lower tariffs and barriers imposed, we are expecting to see freer movements of goods between both countries," said the deputy minister. (BT)

Japan: Tankan signals concern that business confidence will keep sliding
Japan’s large manufacturers expect business confidence to slump in coming months after the nation’s strongest earthquake on record devastated the northeast region on 11 March. The quarterly outlook index of sentiment among big manufacturers is seen falling to minus 2 in June from 6 in March, which would be the lowest reading in a year, according to a breakdown of the Bank of Japan’s Tankan survey released in today. A negative number means pessimists outnumber optimists. (Bloomberg)

Australia: Flood, cyclone disasters to cost economy USD9.4bn, Swan says
Australian Treasurer Wayne Swan said recent natural disasters will likely cost the economy around AUD9bn (USD9.4bn) after the government raised estimates on losses to the coal industry by 20%. “The cost is likely to be even larger than we initially thought,” Swan said in a weekly economic note yesterday. Lost coal production may cost AUD6bn instead of the AUD5bn previously forecast, the Treasurer said, warning that the numbers are “conservative” compared with estimates from some businesses. Damage to crops would add AUD2bn to the bill and lost tourism amounts to AUD400m, he said. (Bloomberg)

Australia: RBA chief Stevens set for longest rate pause since 2006
Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens will hold interest rates unchanged for the longest period of his tenure as a weaker Japanese economy slows exports and eases inflation expectations, money markets show. Stevens will keep the overnight cash rate target at 4.75% tomorrow, the highest benchmark in the developed world, according to all 25 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Borrowing costs, which haven’t risen since November, won’t increase until at least September, and traders see a 34% chance of an increase in December, bank bill contracts on the Sydney Futures Exchange show. (Bloomberg)

Spain: Spain's deficit fight risks setback as Zapatero bows out of 2012 election Spain’s efforts to reduce its budget deficit and rebuild investor confidence may suffer a setback as Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero bows out of next year’s election. Zapatero, 50, said on 2 April he won’t seek a third four- year term, forcing his party to select a new candidate a year before March 2012 elections. The Socialists, which are trailing the opposition in opinion polls, will hold primaries after regional and local elections on 22 May, Zapatero told party members in the capital Madrid. “It means he’s no longer a relevant figure, so I think this may be really problematic from a policy-making perspective over the coming year,” said Ken Dubin, a political science professor at Carlos III University in Madrid. (Bloomberg)

US: Geithner says US to reach debt limit no later than 16 May
The US will reach its USD14.29tn legal debt limit no later than 16 May unless Congress acts before then, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said today, and he warned of “severe hardship” for Americans if lawmakers fail to act. If the limit hasn’t been raised by 16 May, the Treasury Department will turn to a toolkit of emergency measures that can provide up to eight weeks of additional borrowing room, Geithner said. That extra time would end about 8 July, the Treasury chief said. (Bloomberg)

US: Service industries probably grew at close to fastest pace since 2005
Service industries probably expanded in March at close to the fastest pace since 2005, a sign the US economic expansion is broadening beyond manufacturing. The ISM index of non-manufacturing businesses was little changed at 59.5 after a 59.7 reading the previous month that was the highest since August 2005, according to the median of 53 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey ahead of the 5 April data. Another report may show first-time filings for unemployment benefits fell last week. (Bloomberg)

20110405 1112 Malaysia Corporate Related News.

KLCI chart reading :
upside biased with potential pullback.

Renewable Energy bill gets nod
The Dewan Rakyat passed the bill on the Renewable Energy Act 2010. The bill is aimed at developing renewable energy in a more aggressive manner in the country. Energy, Green Technology and Water Minister Datuk Seri Peter Chin Fah Kui said under the bill, the government proposed to implement the feed-in tariff system which is deemed suitable for the country. (Malaysian Reserve)

Star in fund-raising mode again
Having seen its cash pile diminish significantly, Star Publications is proposing to raise up to RM750m from the capital market to boost its war chest. The amount makes the proposed exercise Star’s largest fund-raising effort to date. The proposed fund-raising exercise could increase Star’s gross gearing ratio to 0.82x, from 0.23x currently. The fund raising will come in the form of commercial papers and medium-term notes for investments, capital expenditure and working capital requirements. (FinancialDaily)

Iris in RM800m JV property project with Senegal firm
Iris Corp is marking its entry into property development with a project carrying an estimated GDV of RM800m in Senegal. Iris’ wholly-owned subsidiary, Iris Land SB, will work with Caisse des Depots et Consignations (CDC) of Senegal. Under the joint agreement, both companies are to establish a joint venture company to develop and construct mixed residential and commercial units in Dakar, Senegal. Iris Land will provide 49% of the paid-up share capital while CDC will provide the remaining 51%. (Malaysian Reserve)

OSK Investment Bank acquires stockbroker in RM100m deal
OSK Investment Bank has agreed to buy a controlling 48.85% stake in Thai stockbroker BFIT Securities from Bangkok First Investment in a deal worth an estimated RM100m. (FinancialDaily)   

20100405 0952 Global Market Related News.

DJIA chart reading : upside biased.

 FTSE chart reading : little upside biased.
DAX chart reading : side way range bound.
Hang Seng chart reading : side way  range bound.
Geithner Says U.S. To Reach Debt Limit No Later Than May 16 (Source: Bloomberg)
The U.S. will reach its $14.29 trillion legal debt limit no later than May 16 unless Congress acts before then, Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner said today, and he warned of “severe hardship” for Americans if lawmakers fail to act.

Bernanke Says Fed Will Act If Inflation More Than ‘Transitory’ (Source: Bloomberg)
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said he expects an increase in commodity prices to create a “transitory” boost in U.S. inflation and that the central bank would act if he’s proven incorrect.

Treasuries Fall as Bernanke Says Inflation Expectations Must Be Watched (Source: Bloomberg)
Treasuries declined after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said inflation expectations need to be watched “extremely closely.”

Fed Answering Brazil-China-Germany Axis Over QE2 With U.S. Growth Restored (Source: Bloomberg)
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke is proving critics wrong as his stimulus program’s weight on the dollar boosts U.S. growth without slowing a global expansion or diminishing demand for America’s financial assets.

Fed Exit Means No Pain for Obama as Foreigners Buy 60% of Notes at Auction (Source: Bloomberg)
Treasuries are signaling that the $9 trillion market will weather the end of the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing program in June without suffering a selloff that drives long-term borrowing cost higher.

Lockhart Says U.S. Growth Will Withstand Spending Cuts, Consumer Caution (Source: Bloomberg)
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Dennis Lockhart said the U.S. recovery from the deepest recession since the 1930s will probably persist, while buffeted by government spending cuts and reductions in consumer debt.

Spain's Deficit Fight Risks Setback as Zapatero Bows Out of 2012 Election (Source: Bloomberg)
Spain’s efforts to reduce its budget deficit and rebuild investor confidence may suffer a setback as Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero bows out of next year’s election.

ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet Seen Burying Peripheral Economies With Rate Rise to Stem Inflation (Source: Bloomberg)
Jean-Claude Trichet ’s shot against inflation may end up inflicting collateral damage on Europe’s most cash-strapped economies.

Sovereign Default-Swap Trades Double on China Slowdown: Australia Credit (Source: Bloomberg)
Trading in credit-default swaps on Australian sovereign debt doubled in the past year as the nation becomes increasingly dependent on its biggest export market China, which is seeking to slow growth to stem inflation.

Australia Flood, Cyclone Disasters to Cost Economy $9.4 Billion, Swan Says (Source: Bloomberg)
Australian Treasurer Wayne Swan said recent natural disasters will likely cost the economy around A$9 billion ($9.4 billion) after the government raised estimates on losses to the coal industry by 20 percent.

Japan Bond Futures Drop on Concern Demand to Fall at 10-Year Debt Auction (Source: Bloomberg)
Japan’s bond futures sank to a three-week low on speculation demand will decrease at today’s auction of 10-year securities, the first this fiscal year.

Japanese Stocks Fall as Tokyo Electric Dumps Radioactive Water Into Sea (Source: Bloomberg)
Japanese stocks fell, led by fishing companies, after Tokyo Electric Power Co. began dumping radioactive water from its crippled Fukushima Dai-Ichi nuclear station into the sea.

Yen Falls Before BOJ Meeting; Dollar Gains on Bernanke (Source: Bloomberg)
The yen fell against all its major counterparts before reports that economists said will show Europe’s retail sales increased and U.S. services expanded, reducing demand for Japan’s currency as a refuge.

World stocks up on growth outlook, euro on ECB
LONDON, April 4 (Reuters) - Solid signs of growth in the world economy supported global equities while expectations of higher euro zone interest rates took the euro to an 11-month high against Japan's yen. "As the economy turns the corner and gets back on its feet, central bankers are beginning to see inflation as a greater threat than lack of growth," said Jonathan Sudaria, dealer at Capital Spreads.

20110405 0945 Global Commodities Related News.

Corn (Source: CME)
US corn futures finish at an all-time closing high on concerns about shrinking supplies. Traders expect federal forecasters Friday will slash their outlook for end-of-season corn supplies, already estimated at a 15-year nadir. Lower-than-expected March 1 inventories, reported Thursday, indicate high prices haven't slowed demand. "It appears that consumption is progressing at a rate that cannot be sustained by available supplies," says Darrel Good, agricultural economist at the University of Illinois. CBOT May corn settles up 24 1/4c at $7.60 1/4 a bushel, above the previous high of $7.54 3/4 reached in June 2008. It earlier matched the intraday record of $7.65.

Wheat (Source: CME)
US wheat futures close sharply higher on increasing fears that hot, dry weather is hurting production in the Plains. Parts of Kansas, the country's top wheat-growing state, saw record high temperatures and "incredibly dry air" during the weekend, according to Freese-Notis Weather. The region has struggled with dryness since hard red winter wheat was sown last fall. The USDA's first wheat ratings of the year, due at 4 p.m. EDT, are expected to reflect drought stress. CBOT May wheat climbs 30 1/2c to $7.90/bushel, KCBT May soars 41 1/2c to $9.48 and MGE May jumps 39c to $9.61 1/2.

Rice (Source: CME)
US rice futures finish firmer on spillover support from rallies in neighboring markets. Rally in CBOT wheat -- up 4% -- lifted rice as both grains are global food staples, analysts say. Corn futures closed at an all-time settlement high on supply concerns, adding to the positive tone, they note. Rice lacks its own bullish storyline, as global supplies are ample. CBOT May rice rises 10 1/2c to $13.91 1/2 per hundredweight.

Oil Declines for First Day in Four on Qaddafi Ouster Plan Report, Supplies (Source: Bloomberg)
Oil declined for the first time in four days in New York after a report that the sons of Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi are seeking his ouster and as analysts forecast an increase in U.S. crude inventories.

India Food Inflation May Have Eased To 8% End-March - Official (Source: CME)
Food inflation in India may have eased to around 8% at the end of March, and a good winter-sown crop will help cool prices further, a member of the Planning Commission, the top government think tank, said. The year-on-year inflation rate for food articles fell to 9.50% in the week ended March 19 from 10.05% a week before, according to latest government data. "We will have very good winter crop this year, so prices will come down," Planning Commission member Abhijit Sen told reporters. In India, winter crop is mostly harvested from April. Food inflation rose to more than 18% late December due to tight supplies of fruits and vegetables. Prices have cooled since because of government measures such as a temporary export ban on key vegetable onion, but are still high.
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh last week acknowledged that inflation, particularly in food products, remains a problem, although he was hopeful it would ease in coming months. Planning Commission's Sen also said the government should allow shipments of wheat and rice by private traders to make room for the new crop in choked warehouses, but urged that the government shouldn't whittle down its own reserves to prevent a sudden price surge. "Grain shipments by private trade should be allowed with an export tax," he said. The government has maintained a ban on export of wheat since 2007 and rice since 2008 to keep local supplies steady. India is expecting a record wheat harvest for a second successive year in the crop year through June, and traders are lobbying for grain shipments to benefit from strong demand and prices globally.
According to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, its index of world food prices in February jumped 2.2% from January--the eighth monthly rise in a row--to the highest level since the agency started monitoring prices in 1990. India, the world's second-largest rice and wheat grower, had as much as 45.95 million tons of the two grains in government stocks as of end-February, more than double its requirement for welfare programs.

Ukraine Will Remove Grain Export Curbs If Exporters Finance Planting - Minister (Source: CME)
Ukraine's government will remove all limitations on the export of grain if the parliament approves the draft law allowing traders to export grain only if they pre-pay framers for future harvest, Agriculture Minister Mykolai Prisyazhnyuk said, as quoted by the agriculture ministry's press service. Prisyazhnyuk said the draft law was likely to be approved by the Parliament before this year's grain harvest began. The new law will stipulate that traders must pay 50% of their grain's value before planting, 30% while crops are growing, and the remaining 20% after the grain is harvested. He added that the practice existed in Ukraine before 1917 and was now adopted by many countries, including Brazil. The government imposed a quota of 2.7 million metric tons on the export of grain Oct. 19 until Dec. 31, including 500,000 tons of wheat, 200,000 tons of barley, two million tons of corn and 1,000 tons each rye and buckwheat.
Later the grain export quota was extended to the end of June this year and increased by 3.5 million tons, including 500,000 tons of wheat and three million tons of corn. Ukraine's grain harvest in 2010 fell by 14.8% on the year to 39.23 million tons in clean weight because of drought.

Australia Can Expect Bumper 2011-12 Winter Wheat Crop - USDA (Source: CME)
Australia can look forward to another bumper year for winter crops with high prices and excellent soil moisture levels in most growing areas likely to push plantings to near record levels, the U.S. Department of Agriculture's foreign agriculture service said in a report. Wheat production in the 2011-12 crop year that started Friday is projected at 25.5 million metric tons, unchanged from a revised estimate for last crop year, with a significant increase in the area planted this year likely to be balanced by a return to normal yields, the USDA reported. Australia's chief commodities forecaster, the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences, said a month ago that it expects 2011-12 wheat output of 24.26 million tons, down a record 26.33 million tons in the crop year that ended Thursday. Plantings of 13.81 million hectares this year are up from 13.37 million hectares last crop year.
After annual domestic consumption of around 6.0 million tons is met, the balance of production is available for export, usually making Australia one of the world's top wheat exporters. The USDA estimated that wheat plantings this crop year will expand to 13.8 million hectares from an actual 13.35 million hectares, falling just short of record plantings in 2009-10 of 14.03 million hectares. Pre-planting soil moisture levels in some areas in eastern Australia are at their highest since 1974, while in other areas soil moisture might have reached record levels, it said. Wheat exports in the shipping year ending Sept. 30, 2012, is forecast by the USDA at 14.0 million tons, down from a revised estimate for this year of 15.0 million tons, which was raised in line with higher-than-expected shipments in the October-January period, the USDA reported.
Industry sources expect high monthly export levels to continue through May, with the 2010-11 crop experiencing "almost unprecedented export demand, particularly for weather-damaged wheat, and this has resulted in unusually high export volumes," the USDA said. Strong demand for 2010-11 crop exports will partially constrain growth in domestic consumption and growth in closing inventories, though domestic consumption is expected to reach above average levels, it said.

Corn rises for third day on tight supply, highest since '08
SYDNEY, April 4 (Reuters) - U.S. corn futures rose for a third straight session touching their loftiest since the 2008 global food crisis and could be on track to set a fresh record soon on fears of tight supplies.  The tight stocks estimate "raises prospects that if there are any production hiccups over the course of 2011, then the U.S. and indeed the world, is going to be running very short of feed grains for the next 12 months," said Luke Mathews, commodity strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. 

Philippines awards import rights for 255,348 T rice (Source: CME)
MANILA, April 4 (Reuters) - The Philippines' National Food Authority (NFA) on Monday awarded import rights to 13 traders for an initial volume of 255,348 tonnes of rice, less than half of the amount approved for private sector purchases this year.
Private traders have been allocated 600,000 tonnes of imports this year, and bids for 693,748 tonnes were submitted last month.

India food inflation seen easing to 8 pct by end-March: adviser
NEW DELHI, April 4 (Reuters) - The prospect of a good winter harvest is likely to bring down food inflation in India to about 8 percent by end-March, a senior government adviser said on Monday.
Planning Commission member Abhijit Sen also said private traders should be allowed to export wheat with a small duty.

Spotty, light rains fall in U.S. Plains wheat belt
CHICAGO, April 1 (Reuters) - Light rains fell in the top U.S. winter wheat state of Kansas the past day providing some relief to the parched crop but the remainder of the belt was dry, a forecaster said on Friday.
"The crop is running on fumes in the west and no prospect for any change," said Mike Palmerino, forecaster with Telvent DTN weather. "Kansas is still hanging in there with these occasional light showers."

Cocoa rises early on Ivory Coast standoff (Source: Reuters)
ICE cocoa futures were higher in early trade as a standoff between presidential rivals in top grower Ivory Coast diminished expectations there could be a quick resolution to a conflict which has brought exports to a virtual halt. Raw sugar futures on ICE rose in early trade, tracking gains in other commodity markets.

Thailand may miss rubber target after floods-traders
BANGKOK, April 4 (Reuters) - Thailand, the world's biggest rubber exporter, may not produce the 3.3 million tonnes it is aiming for this year because mudslides have devastated plantation areas and further heavy rain is forecast, traders said on Monday. Floods and mudslides have cut off road and air transport in southern Thailand and killed 45 people across 10 provinces.

Cotton market may fray, but not unravel after US plantings report
SINGAPORE, April 1 (Reuters) - A 14 percent surge in U.S. cotton plantings for 2011 may not be enough to halt the two-year rally that has pushed prices up over 500 percent to their highest since the American Civil War as strong demand from Asia underpins the market.  Cotton was the top performing commodity in 2010, a feat it repeated in the first three months of 2011, attracting huge speculative interest that peaks in the third quarter of 2010 when fears of a supply squeeze started to emerge.

20110405 0944 Soy Oil & Palm Oil Related News.

Soy Oil chart reading : little upside biased.

Soybeans (Source: CME)
US soybean futures end lower, stumbling on harvest progress in South America, which is seen limiting global demand for US soy. "Concern about slowing export demand for old-crop soybeans weighed in nearby contracts, particularly in the face of persistent rumors that China has rolled South American soy purchases as well as switched a few US soybean purchases to Brazil," according to Doane Advisory Service. New crop futures held steady, supported by corn's ongoing surge, as the bean market must keep prices attractive in an effort to not lose too much new-crop seeded acres to it. CBOT May soybeans settled down 9 3/4c at $13.84/bushel while November dipped 1/4c to $13.89.

Soybean Meal/Oil (Source: CME)
Soy product futures ended mixed, with soymeal backpedaling in step with declines in soybeans. Soyoil futures managed a climb today, garnering support from higher crude oil prices and strength in world vegoil markets, analysts said. Crude oil influences soyoil due to its use in making renewable fuels. CBOT May soyoil ended 0.20c or 0.3% higher at 58.88c per pound; May soymeal settled down $3.90 or 1.1% at $357.00 per short ton.

Malaysian palm oil extends gains on demand hopes
KUALA LUMPUR, April 4 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures extended last week's gains as higher prices of competing soyoil could kick in demand for the tropical oil at time when its production is on the rise. "Although we are expecting a seasonal pick-up in production as we enter into 2Q, the prospective insufficient soybean plantings in 2011 should keep prices of soyoil high and provide support to crude palm oil," said Citi analyst Penny Yaw.

More Argentine farmers harvesting soy -gov't
BUENOS AIRES, April 1 (Reuters) - Argentine farmers have stepped up the pace of the 2010/11 soybean harvest but yields are uneven so far due to severe dryness earlier this season, the Agriculture Ministry said on Friday.
Dry weather late last year cut into soy output forecasts for Argentina, the world's third-biggest soybean supplier, but rains in January and February brightened the outlook.