Friday, October 29, 2010

20101029 1319 Local & Global Economics News.

Malaysia: FTA with Australia possible by mid-2011
The free trade agreement (FTA) talks between Australia and Malaysia are likely to be concluded by mid-2011. The eighth round of FTA talks between Australian and Malaysian officials ended last Friday in Canberra. According to Australia Malaysia Business Council national president Larry Gould, both countries are likely to come to an agreement in the middle of next year. (StarBiz)

Japan: Bank of Japan to cut economic forecasts
The Bank of Japan was expected to trim its economic forecast and predict a very slow exit from deflation, signaling it is ready to ease policy further if the strong yen threatens to stunt growth. The central bank would also detail its JPY5trn (USD61.46bn) asset buying programme announced early this month and might say that it would kick off before its next rate review in November, sources familiar with the BOJ’s thinking said. (StarBiz)

Australia: RBA records largest-ever valuation loss on currency
The Reserve Bank of Australia said it recorded a valuation loss of AUD3.8bn (USD3.7bn) in fiscal 2010, its largest ever, as the nation’s currency surged. The RBA said in its annual report released that underlying earnings in the 12 months ended 30 June were AUD866m, leaving a net loss of AUD2.9bn for the year, after an AUD8.8bn profit a year earlier. As a result, no dividend will be payable to the government for the year, it said. A 12% rise in the Australian dollar against other currencies held in its reserves meant that foreign interest earnings were worth less in local dollars, the report showed. Underlying earnings were AUD1.28bn less than the yearearlier period and were the lowest since 1983, the report showed. (Bloomberg)

UK: House prices fell to eight-month low in October
UK house prices fell in October to the lowest level in eight months as the deepest government spending cuts since World War II sapped confidence, a report by Nationwide Building Society showed. The average cost of a home dropped by 0.7% from September to GBP164,381(USD259,000), the lowest since February, Britain’s biggest customer-owned lender said. From a year earlier, prices increased 1.4%, the least since September 2009. (Bloomberg)

EU: Economic confidence improves more than forecast
European confidence in the economic outlook improved more than economists forecast to the highest in almost three years in October, led by manufacturing sentiment. An index of executive and consumer sentiment in the 16 euro nations rose to 104.1 from 103.2 in September, the European Commission in Brussels said. That’s the highest since December 2007 and exceeded economists’ forecast for a reading of 103.5, based on the median of 26 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. (Bloomberg)

US: Jobless claims fall in sign US job market mending
Claims for jobless benefits unexpectedly dropped last week to a three-month low, a sign the US labor market may be starting to mend. Initial jobless claims decreased by 21,000 to 434,000 in the week ended 23 Oct, the lowest since early July when fewer auto plants than normal closed for retooling, Labor Department figures showed in Washington. The total number of people receiving unemployment insurance dropped to a two-year low, while those getting extended payments also fell. (Bloomberg)

US: Fed asks dealers to estimate size of debt purchases
The Federal Reserve asked bond dealers and investors for projections of central bank asset purchases over the next six months, along with the likely effect on yields, as it seeks to gauge the possible impact of new efforts to spur growth. The New York Fed survey, obtained by Bloomberg News, asks about expectations for the initial size of any new program of debt purchases and the time over which it would be completed. It also asks firms how often they anticipate the Fed will re- evaluate the program, and to estimate its ultimate size. (Bloomberg)

20101029 1318 Malaysia Corporate News.

Mortgage cap decision soon
Bank Negara Malaysia may make it harder for Malaysians to buy more than two houses as it seeks to stem speculative buying that is pushing up property prices. Sources said the central bank would be meeting with banks next week to discuss plans for a mortgage cap whereby loans would be limited to a portion of the property value. "The expectation is a cap of about 70%-80%. We think a directive will be issued to cap," said two sources with knowledge of the meeting. Earlier, Bank Negara Malaysia governor Tan Sri Dr Zeti Akhtar Aziz said it was prepared to take pre-emptive action and that it has wide-ranging instruments to prevent a property bubble. "We want to promote house ownership, but we want it to be done in an orderly manner and we don't want speculative activities," she told reporters on the sidelines of the Global Islamic Finance Forum in Kuala Lumpur yesterday. (BT)

MAHB signs joint deal on Maldives airport
Malaysia Airports Holdings (MAHB) yesterday signed a joint-venture agreement with GMR Infrastructure Ltd and GMR Male International Airport Ltd (GMIAL) for the rehabilitation, expansion, modernization, operation and maintenance of Male International Airport, Maldives. MAHB told Bursa Malaysia yesterday that it was based on a build-operate-transfer model. The tenure of the concession is 25 years starting from the handover date and may be extended by another 10 years subject to mutual terms and conditions between the relevant parties. Based on the expected construction cost of USD373m, the cost attributable to MAHB (by way of equity contribution and/or contingent liabilities for shareholder’s support and/or corporate guarantees, if required) is about USD86m. MAHB and GMR Infrastructure will subscribe for shares in GMIAL based on the shareholding percentages of 23% and 77%, respectively. (StarBiz)

Bursa unfazed by SGX-ASX merger
Bursa Malaysia does not expect the proposed merger between the Singapore Stock Exchange (SGX) and Australian Stock Exchange (ASX) to affect the local bourse's performance and competitiveness. Chief executive officer Datuk Yusli Mohamed Yusoff said this is due to Bursa Malaysia's unique features, competitive products and new offerings. Yusli did not elaborate on the unique features. He spoke to reporters after delivering a keynote address at the final day of the Global Islamic Finance Forum in Kuala Lumpur yesterday. "We will make sure the products and services we offer are of interest to both foreign and local investors," he said, noting more products will be introduced. (BT)

Southern Acids to unlock value of land in Kota Kemuning
Southern Acids (M) (SAB) is set to unlock its holding of 644.49 acres of land bordering Kota Kemuning, Shah Alam, although its board of directors is still exploring its options. “There are plans to unlock the value but the board has not decided what to do. Nothing is finalized yet,” said SAB chairman Tan Sri Low Boon yesterday. Low said while there is “no shortage of suitors” for the land known as Thangamallay Estate, which is home to its palm oil plantation, he stressed that the board is evaluating all available options before making any decision in the next three to six months. (Financial Daily)

Loh & Loh to be delisted
Javace SB, which has made a mandatory take-over offer to acquire all shares in Loh & Loh Corp, has received valid acceptances resulting in it and the parties acting in concert holding 65.84m shares in Loh & Loh. This represents 96.82% of the issued and paid-up capital of the company, Loh & Loh told Bursa Malaysia yesterday. The offerors do not intend to maintain the listing status of Loh & Loh in the event it holds 90% or more of the issued and paid-up share capital. Hence the shares of the company will be suspended from trading on 8 Nov, and its listing status will be withdrawn from the official list of Bursa Malaysia.(StarBiz)

Petronas to expand Malacca refinery
Petroliam Nasional (Petronas) plans to expand and upgrade its Malacca refinery to produce higher-quality fuel and meet rising demand after recently raising the plant’s capacity to 290,000 barrels per day (bpd), industry sources said. Upgrades would allow Petronas to process more sour crude at the refining complex as the country’s sweet crude production declined, one of the sources said. The study, which would determine the capacity and investment costs, was expected to be completed in first-quarter next year, he said. The expansion would be carried out at the refinery’s Train 1, which has a design capacity of 100,000 bpd but operates at 120,000 bpd, the source said. (StarBiz) 

20101029 1310 Global Market News.

Exxon, Shell profits bubble higher with oil prices
LONDON/HOUSTON, Oct 28 (Reuters) - The world's biggest oil companies, Exxon Mobil  and Royal Dutch Shell , reported sharply higher third-quarter profits on Thursday, beating analysts' forecasts, as rising energy demand drove up oil and gas prices and fattened refinery margins.
Oil prices climbed 12 percent in the quarter from a year earlier on the back of the global economic recovery and strong demand from China, which became the world's largest energy user this year.

COMMODITY MARKETS: Most markets up modestly as dollar tumbles
NEW YORK, Oct 28 (Reuters) - Commodities rose on Thursday on better-than-expected U.S. job indicators but gains in oil and most raw materials did not match the sharp drop in the dollar due to uncertainties about factors ranging from Fed easing to the outcome of U.S. Congressional elections.
"Are we seeing the inverse relationship between the dollar and commodities beginning to fray somewhat? For sure," said Adam Sarhan, founder of New York's Sarhan Capital, which oversees about $100 million in client assets.

GLOBAL MARKETS: Stocks mixed, dollar falls before elections, Fed
NEW YORK, Oct 28 (Reuters) - Global stocks rose despite Wall Street's mixed finish and the dollar's slide on Thursday as investors pulled back before expected upheaval from next week's U.S. elections and the likelihood of more monetary easing.
"Perhaps this is going to be a 'buy the rumor, sell the news' kind of deal where we have had the rally in anticipation of all these things," said Phil Orlando, chief equity market strategist, at Federated Investors in New York.

OIL: Crude falls before U.S. economic growth data
SINGAPORE, Oct 29 (Reuters) - Oil fell to below $82 ahead of U.S. third-quarter GDP data due later on Friday, the last major economic cue for markets before the Federal Reserve outlines steps to boost recovery in a meeting next week.
The United States is expected to show a 2 percent increase in third-quarter GDP growth, up from 1.7 percent in the second, due to higher consumer spending, a Reuters poll showed.

PRECIOUS-Gold recovers as dollar weakens ahead of Fed meet
LONDON, Oct 28 (Reuters) - Gold rose back towards $1,330 an ounce in Europe on Thursday as fresh dollar weakness arrested the previous session's decline, but trading was cautious ahead of Federal Reserve talks on monetary easing next week.
"Our colleagues on the FX side think the numbers that are circling in the market on QE measures are far too high, we expect some lower numbers, and that will probably help the dollar," said Commerzbank analyst Daniel Briesemann. "That could weigh on precious metals prices."

FOREX-Dollar slides, short-covering rally sputters
LONDON, Oct 28 (Reuters) - The dollar slipped on Thursday, relinquishing some of the gains made earlier this week as a short-covering rally ran out of steam and U.S. Treasury yields fell.
"We'd seen a short squeeze in the dollar in the past few days due to exhaustion in positioning, but when there's no incentive to maintain that, you get some profit taking," said Peter Frank, currency strategist at Societe Generale.

U.S. wheat rises for 5th session on weather concerns
SINGAPORE, Oct 28 (Reuters) - Chicago wheat futures ticked higher, rising for the fifth straight session, as concerns over bad weather in the United States and Australia continued to support the market.
"In the last few days, the market has drawn support from  relatively weak U.S. crop conditions," said Luke Mathews, commodity strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

Asian stocks rebound; yen unmoved by BOJ
SYDNEY, Oct 28 (Reuters) - Asian stocks rebounded after having suffered their biggest one-day fall in four months, while the yen held firm against a broadly weaker dollar, taking details of the Bank of Japan's stimulus plan in its stride.
"What stands out is that the BOJ rescheduled its next meeting, bringing it forward, which suggests the central bank wants to make sure it can take action if needed after the FOMC," said Takeshi Minami, chief economist at Norinchukin Research Institute, referring to the U.S. central bank meeting on Nov. 2-3.

20101029 1309 Soy Oil & Palm Oil Related News.

Soy product futures ended mostly higher, up in tandem with advances in soybeans. Soymeal was underpinned by solid domestic demand amid poultry and pork population numbers rising above last year's levels, analysts said. Soyoil futures rose, but larger than expected soyoil stocks reported in the Census Bureau's Sept soy crush report, a healthy soyoil yield and China turning back to Argentina for vegoil supplies limited advances, said Dan Basse, president AgResource Company in Chicago. Dec soyoil settled 0.10c or 0.1% higher at 49.70 cents a pound. Dec soymeal ended $0.40 or 0.1% higher at $336.30 a short ton. (Source: CME)

Fall In Corn Production Weighs On IGC Grain Outlook (Source: CME)
World grains markets are expected to tighten in the 2010-11 season as consumption outpaces supply for the first time in four years, the International Grain Council said. While the IGC said wheat production is expected to hit 644 million metric tons in 2010-11--leaving its previous estimate unchanged--worsening prospects for corn crops in the U.S. and China are expected to lower world production. While still a record crop, the IGC cut its estimates for 2010-11 world corn output to 814 million tons from a previous forecast of 824 million tons. Corn output from the world's largest producer, the U.S., is expected to total 323 million tons this season, said the IGC, cutting its previous forecast by 11 million tons. China is expected to produce 162 million tons this year, 3 million less than the IGC's September estimate. Declining prospects for the U.S. corn crop has triggered a jump in prices in recent weeks.
A sharp downgrade in government yield estimates caused a mid-month surge in futures, with CBOT March corn now trading at around $5.77 1/4 a bushel. Analysts remain bullish on the prospect for corn markets. "Despite the aggressive cut in U.S. corn yields in the last WASDE report, further declines in yield estimates are likely," said Sudakshina Unnikrishnan at Barclays Capital. Still, demand is expected to remain robust. The IGC increased its corn consumption forecast for by 3 million tons to 840 million tons, up 3% from 2009-10, and said it expects this season's ending stocks to fall to a four-year low of 125 million tons.

Palm oil rebounds on soy, weather
KUALA LUMPUR, Oct 27 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures rebounded, after two straight days of losses, drawing support from a firmer soy complex and weather concerns.
"October exports could be either plus or minus 2 percent because exports data for the first 25 days showed a 4 percent fall," said a trader in Kuala Lumpur. "It is very hard to predict."

China's soy buying spree to curb vegoil imports
KUALA LUMPUR, Oct 28 (Reuters) - China's soybean imports smash records every year but if the country keeps up last week's pace of buying, its processors will have more than enough to crush into cooking oil, reducing imports of edible oil.
The world's No. 1 food buyer may be rewriting its shopping list at a time when a weaker dollar makes bumper soy crops from the Americas cheaper than processed soyoil from Argentina as well as Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil.

Thursday, October 28, 2010

20101028 1818 FCPO EOD Daily Chart Study.

FCPO closed : 3085, changed : +48 points, volume : higher.
Bollinger band reading : correction range bound upside biased.
MACD Histrogram : weakening, buyer taking profit.
Support : 3070, 3050, 3020 level.
Resistant : 3100, 3150, 3200 level.
Comment :
Break new high FCPO recorded gained today recovered all last 2 days losses with improving volume changed hand due weaker US Dollar and a resume higher soy oil futures price. Daily chart formed a up bar candle within narrowing Bollinger band width with the reading remained suggesting a correction range bound upside biased market testing support and resistant level. 
When to buy : buy at support and weakness with quick cut loss and profit target.
When to sell : sell at resistant or strength with quick cut loss and profit target.

20101028 1732 FKLI EOD Daily Chart Study.

FKLI closed : 1503, changed : +3.5 points,  volume : lower.
Bollinger band reading : correction range bound upside biased.
MACD Histrogram : recovering, buyer has no intention to leave.
Support : 1500, 1485, 1470 level.
Resistant : 1530, 1550, 1580 level.
Comment :
FKLI finally managed to close above 1500 crucial resistant level recorded marginal gain with lesser volume traded. Daily chart formed the fourth doji bar candle traded within the narrowing Bollinger band indicates that market still in consolidation phase and likely stay range bound upside biased.
When to buy : buy at support or weakness with quick cut loss and profit target.
When to sell : sell at resistant or strength with quick cut loss and profit target.

20101028 0942 Local & Global Economics News.

Malaysia: To sign FTA with India
An India-Malaysia free trade deal is expected to almost double trade by 2015, allowing them to reduce dependence on traditional growth engines such as China and US. The trade agreement will be signed by 31 Jan 2011 and come into force by 1 July. The two countries said they would work together to develop the hydrocarbons and renewable energy industries and collaborate in banking and information technology. (Financial Daily)

Australia: Less-than-forecast inflation is RBA ‘vindication’
Australian consumer prices rose less than forecast last quarter, driving down the nation’s currency as traders unwound bets the central bank will raise interest rates next week. The consumer price index rose 0.7% from the second quarter, the Bureau of Statistics said. That was less than the 0.8% median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of 24 economists. The central bank’s measures of core inflation showed annual price increases slowed last quarter. (Bloomberg)

Germany: Inflation held steady in October after Euro appreciated
German inflation held steady in October as a stronger euro helped counter higher energy prices. The inflation rate, calculated using a harmonized European method, stayed at 1.3%, the Federal Statistics Office in Wiesbaden said. That was in line with the median of 21 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey of economists. In the month, prices rose 0.1%. (Bloomberg)

US: Sales of US new homes increase for second month
Sales of new homes rose in September for a second month to a pace that signals the industry is struggling to overcome the effects of a jobless rate hovering near 10%. Purchases increased 6.6% to a 307,000 annual rate that exceeded the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News, figures from the Commerce Department showed in Washington. Demand is hovering near the record-low 282,000 reached in May. (Bloomberg)

US: Orders for US durable goods probably climbed, boosting growth
Orders for US durable goods probably climbed in September by the most in five months, a sign business investment is underpinning the recovery, economists said. Bookings for goods meant to last at least three years increased 2%, according to the median forecast of 76 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Another report may show sales of new houses rose last month to a 300,000 annual rate, hovering near a record low. (Bloomberg)

20101028 0940 Malaysia Corporate News.

India PM urges Malaysian firms to tap USD1trn infra market
India PM Dr Manmohan Singh is encouraging Malaysian companies to participate in the potential infrastructure investment of about USD1tn under India's 12th Five Year Plan starting 2012. Its 11th Five Year Plan that ends next year has targeted investment in infrastructure of USD500bn but the sum was anticipated to double as inadequate infrastructure was a major constraint to India's performance. (BT)

More investments from India on the way
In line with India PM Dr Manmohan Singh’s visit to Malaysia, a few key investments from Indian companies have been announced. These include Biocon Ltd’s RM500m investment for a biomanufacturing, research and development facility in Iskandar Malaysia due to start operating by 2014 and Manipal Education’s RM650m investment over a 5-year period to build an international university in the vicinity of KL. (BT, Bernama)

Presentations made on KL-Singapore high speed train project
Several companies made presentations to the NKEA about three months ago on the Kuala Lumpur-Singapore high-speed train project, industry sources say. Among them were YTL Corp and Hartasuma SB, which was said to be partnering a Chinese state-owned firm. Some of the companies have proposed to undertake the highspeed rail project for between RM8bn and RM14bn. A Government source said the project could be worth RM10bn to RM12bn, and that it would take five to eight years to complete as it will cover 300km. (BT)

EPF-UEM offer leaves major PLUS investor cold
A major shareholder of PLUS Expressways is "not happy" with the EPF-UEM Group's takeover price for the firm, and may consider other bids, two sources say. KWAP, the civil servants' pension fund which owns a 5.2% stake in PLUS, believes that PLUS deserves a better price, said the sources, who have direct knowledge of the matter. (Reuters)

MK Land clinches RM4bn project in Bangalore
MK Land sealed an agreement with Embassy Group of India to develop a RM4bn “affordable homes” project in North Bangalore, India. The development will comprise 14,400 residential units with 2m square feet of commercial space. It will be carried out by MK Embassy Land, which is a joint venture between MK Land (47.5%), Embassy Group’s subsidiary Star Dreams Pte Ltd (47.5%), and Emkay Group’s subsidiary, MKN Embassy Development (5%). (Financial Daily)

Naim gets RM168m job in Sarawak
Naim Holdings’ wholly owned subsidiary NCSB Engineering SB has been awarded a RM168m contract by Jabatan Kerja Raya, Kuching. The contract is for the design and construction of the Bengoh Resettlement Scheme. (Financial Daily)

Exciting times ahead for Dialog
Dialog Group is gearing up for exciting times ahead with the multi-billion-ringgit independent deepwater petroleum terminal project at Pengerang, Johor, which will turn it into a regional oil storage and trading hub by 2017. “There are tremendous spinoff opportunities from the Pengerang project and it may eventually attract total combined investments of up to another RM95bn from other companies and O&G industries,” MD Ngau Bonn Keat said. (Financial Daily)

Tanjung Offshore gets RM22m vessel contract
Tanjung Offshore has received a RM22m contract from Carigali-PTTEPI Operating Company SB to supply a tug and utility vessel. The contract was for a primary duration of three years. The vessel would be used to support the offshore operations in block B-17 in the Malaysia-Thailand Joint Authority development area. (Financial Daily)

20101028 0911 Renewable Energy Related News.

Despite this is not related to FKLI or FCPO, the below news is just for sharing purpose as I think our country Malaysia possess a high potential in this industry.

HONG KONG, Oct 26 (Reuters)- China National BlueStar, a state-run specialty chemicals company backed by U.S. private equity firm Blackstone Group , is in talks to acquire part or all of Norwegian solar silicon product maker Elkem AS, according to three sources familiar with the matter.
An Elkem takeover could cost BlueStar around $1 billion based on the Norwegian company's financial figures and analysts notes.

NEW DELHI, Oct 26 (Reuters) - India aims to add about 35 gigawatts of renewable power generation capacity by 2015, a top official said on Tuesday, at an investment of about $55 billion as the country seeks to cut a power deficit and carbon emissions.
Most of the investment has to come from private firms, said Debashish Majumdar, head of Indian Renewable Energy Development Agency. India's current generation from renewables is 16.5 GW.

WASHINGTON, Oct 25 (Reuters) - The world's biggest solar plant that plans to provide power to more than 300,000 homes in southern California was approved by the U.S. Interior Department on Monday.
The $6 billion, 1,000-megawatt project, a joint venture of Solar Millennium AG  and Ferrostaal AG, will be located on federal lands near Blythe, in the southern tip of California.

ABU DHABI, Oct 25 (Reuters) - Promoting solar energy in the Gulf, which has one of the world's biggest carbon footprints, will be a priority for the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), its new interim director-general said.
Securing Saudi Arabia's participation in the intergovernmental organisation will also be a major target, IRENA's Adnan Amin told Reuters in an interview on Monday, adding that he hoped the world's largest crude oil exporter would become a signatory by next April.

LONDON, Oct 25 (Reuters) - Spain's Gamesa  will open an offshore wind turbine factory and research centre in Britain, creating more than 1,000 direct jobs, the company said on Monday.
The company will invest 150 million euros until 2014 and base the global headquarters of its offshore division in London, Gamesa said, confirming a report from Reuters earlier this month.

ERMELO, South Africa, Oct 23 (Reuters) - South Africa plans to spend more than 800 billion rand ($115 billion) on power generation infrastructure in the next few years to encourage more foreign investment, President Jacob Zuma said on Saturday.
"We are poised to spend more than 800 billion rand on infrastructure in the next few years," Zuma said at a ceremony to mark the recommissioning of national power utility Eskom's [ESCJ.UL] Camden power station.

NAIROBI, Oct 22 (Reuters) - Kenya's Geothermal Development Company (GDC) said on Friday it has pledges worth $400 million, 40 percent of the amount it needs for a 10-year plan during which it intends to produce 2,000 megawatts (MW) of steam.
"There is a lot of excitement in terms of the support that we are getting from outside," GDC Managing Director Silas Simiyu told Reuters. "When we came up with our business plan and we talked of 5,000 MW by 2030, it was thought that the plan was very ambitious."

SHANGHAI, Oct 21 (Reuters) - Solar wafer manufacturer LDK Solar  has a strong order book for 2011 as global demand remains strong and is likely to revise up its full-year revenue target.
Chairman and chief executive Peng Xiaofeng, 35, one of the world's youngest billionaires, told Reuters in a telephone interview on Thursday that sales to China would reach 50 percent of its total in the next two years from 30 percent.

COPENHAGEN, Oct 20 (Reuters) - The global offshore wind turbine market is expected to almost double this year after record growth last year and is seen expanding briskly to 2015, Denmark's MAKE Consulting said on Wednesday.
Last year the offshore turbine market grew by 80 percent from 2008, with 620 megawatts of capacity installed and the total installed base rising above 2 gigawatts, the wind energy specialist said in a preview of a new report.

LOS ANGELES, Oct 20 (Reuters) - Rapid growth in the U.S. solar power industry and rising share prices of panel makers have shone a spotlight on consolidation in the sector, but deals are most likely for companies that build renewable power plants or make the panels more efficient.
Large established companies such as First Solar  and SunPower Corp  will be leading the charge, analysts say.

20101028 0906 Biofuel Related News.

HAMBURG, Oct 25 (Reuters) - The German cabinet will vote on Wednesday on a proposal to raise the maximum level of bioethanol allowed in blended gasoline to 10 percent in January 2011 from 5 percent now, the country's environment ministry said on Monday.
The move is part of Germany's efforts to meet European Union plans to raise biofuel use to protect the environment, it said.

SAO PAULO, Oct 25 (Reuters) - Brazil's state-run oil giant Petrobras  said on Monday it signed a 2.1 billion-real ($1.23 billion) agreement with Tereos International to secure the supply of ethanol.
The deal will bring Petrobras a step closer to reaching its goal of becoming a leading player in the global biofuels sector.

MADRID, Oct 22 (Reuters) - Spain's industry ministry said on Friday it planned to increase the minimum proportions of biofuels to be mixed with conventional fuels to 6.1 percent in 2013 from 5.83 percent in 2010.
The increase in requirements to mix biofuels with conventional fuels -- known as minimum blend -- will take place gradually, reaching 5.9 percent in 2011, and 6.0 percent in 2012, the ministry said in a statement.

WASHINGTON, Oct 21 (Reuters) - The government is offering more than $1.5 billion in assistance, from field to filling station, to bring next-generation biofuels to market, Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack said on Thursday.
Vilsack said the aid would assure renewable fuel consumption reaches 36 billion gallons by 2022, with the bulk of it coming from non-food sources such as grass, algae or woody plants.

WASHINGTON, Oct 20 (Reuters) - The U.S. government plans a half billion dollars in subsidies to help farmers grow the next generation of biomass crops -- switchgrass and woody plants instead of corn, farm lobbyists and congressional staff workers told Reuters.
Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack will announce the subsidy program on Thursday, they said. An estimated $525 million would be paid over 15 years to defray farmers' costs.

WASHINGTON, Oct 19 (Reuters) - Attacked as subsidy addicts, U.S. ethanol makers may need help from friends in high places, including the White House, to hold on to lucrative tax breaks set to expire at the end of the year.
The industry says it is ready to discuss revisions in the incentives, worth $6 billion a year. An amalgam of foodmakers, livestock producers, environmentalists and deficit hawks say there is no need for subsidies because biofuels are guaranteed by law a share of the motor fuel market.

CHICAGO, Oct 19 (Reuters) - Rising biofuel demand is among multiple factors fueling food inflation around the globe, but markets today are more able to manage that impact than in 2007, when an aggressive U.S. government mandate sent prices soaring, an agriculture industry executive said on Tuesday.
U.S. corn prices this month revisited levels not seen since the months after the amended Renewable Fuels Standard was signed into law, rekindling the debate about whether food products should be used to make fuel.

20101028 0905 Global Market News.

Oil edges higher as dollar weakens, U.S. gasoline stocks drop
SINGAPORE, Oct 28 (Reuters) - Oil gained as the dollar weakened and U.S. gasoline stockpiles posted a surprise drop, while doubts lingered about the size of expected monetary stimulus by the Federal Reserve.
"I see the decline in gasoline stocks as quite positive for the oil market, especially because we don't usually see these drops this time of year," said Ben Westmore, a commodities analyst at National Australia Bank.

Gold inches higher as markets eye Fed move
SINGAPORE, Oct 28 (Reuters) - Gold prices inched higher, and the dollar edged lower, as investors reassessed expectations of the Federal Reserve's decision next week on monetary easing.
"Gold prices are likely to be rangebound in the short term, as investors wait for the Fed's decision next week. We've seen different opinions on what the Fed would do and how the dollar would move," said Zhu Yilin, general manager of the research and development department of Jingyi Futures in Shanghai.

OIL: Crude steady, capped by sagging U.S. demand
SINGAPORE, Oct 28 (Reuters) - Oil edged higher as the dollar weakened on Thursday, but gains were limited by government data showing U.S. demand receded last week, raising questions about how much expected monetary stimulus would lift consumption.
Total U.S. product demand fell 0.3 percent in the four weeks to Oct. 22 from a year earlier, the Energy InformationAdministration reported on Wednesday, with gasoline use down 0.8 percent in the period.

COMMODITY MARKETS: Ends down as dlr up on Fed stimulus rethink
NEW YORK, Oct 27 (Reuters) - Most commodities fell on Wednesday, hurt by a strong dollar and risk reduction by those fearing the U.S. Federal Reserve may be less aggressive than previously thought in efforts to stimulate the economy.
"Given the price action, we can assume they (investors) are trimming those short dollar bets," said Omer Esiner, chief market analyst at Commonwealth Foreign Exchange.

GLOBAL MARKETS: Dollar up; stocks, commodities down, eyes on Fed
NEW YORK, Oct 27 (Reuters) - The dollar rose while stocks and commodities fell on Wednesday on doubts over how aggressively the Federal Reserve is going to attempt to stimulate the flagging U.S. economy.
"The dollar's slide since September has been pricing in aggressive price action by the Fed to around $1 trillion," said Omer Esiner, chief market analyst at Commonwealth Foreign Exchange.

U.S. consumer confidence, home prices remain weak
NEW YORK, Oct 26 (Reuters) - Data on Tuesday underscored the fragility of the U.S. economic recovery, with consumer confidence rising but still weak and home prices falling again after gaining earlier in the year.
The reports reinforced the belief the U.S. Federal Reserve will embark on another round of monetary policy stimulus to support the economic recovery, possibly as soon as next week.

PRECIOUS-Gold eases as dollar firms, WSJ predicts gradual QE
LONDON, Oct 27 (Reuters) - Gold eased towards $1,330 an ounce in Europe on Wednesday as the dollar firmed versus the euro after a report said the Federal Reserve would likely adopt a gradual approach to further U.S. monetary easing.
"I think the Fed won't go as big on QE2 as people have been expecting, and i think the dollar (will) firm into year-end," said Simon Weeks, head of precious metals at the Bank of Nova Scotia. "It's just a question of time before we are lower."

FOREX-Dollar gains as short positions cut before Fed
LONDON, Oct 27 (Reuters) - The dollar rose broadly on Wednesday as signs the U.S. Federal Reserve would take a more gradualist approach than expected to new quantitative easing next week prompted players to liquidate some short dollar positions.
"There is a sense that the Fed might go for QE light, rather than a second round of shock and awe," said Michael Derks, currency strategist at FXPro.

Doubts on Fed lift dollar, hurt stocks
LONDON, Oct 27 (Reuters) - Doubts over how aggressively the U.S. Federal Reserve is going to stimulate a flagging recovery with another round of money-printing weighed on world equities and commodities while boosting the dollar.
"Underlying sentiment has clearly deteriorated ... the market is moving away from the expectation of a huge initial increase in QE to this rather incremental approach," said Nick Stamenkovic, rate strategist at RIA Capital Markets in Edinburgh.

20101028 0902 Soy Oil & Palm Oil Related News.

Soy product futures ended higher, rising in unison with soybean futures. The markets managed to bounce back from initial setbacks, as strength in beans amid strong underlying export demand supported prices throughout the soy complex, analysts said. Dec soyoil settled 0.07c or 0.1% higher at 49.60 cents a pound. Dec soymeal ended $0.40 or 0.1% higher at $335.90 a short ton. (Source : CME)

Argentina Seen Setting New Crop Records - Official (Source : CME)
Argentina' farmers are on track to break the record grain output seen last season, with production topping 100 million tons, the country's Vice Minister of Agriculture, Lorenzo Basso, said in an interview. With soybean planting just kicking off, conditions are ideal after recent showers and prices are sky-high right now. Basso estimated that production would set a new record of 55 million metric tons this season. Virtually all of that will be exported as either beans, meal or oil, he said. Argentina is the world's third largest soybean exporter after the U.S. and Brazil. Argentina leads the world in soymeal and soyoil exports. Basso also said that China had resumed heavy soyoil buying after lifting a block on the trade earlier this month. The Chinese are likely to end the year with purchases similar to those in 2009, he added. China is the largest importer of soyoil and dealt Argentine exporters a stinging blow earlier this year when it blocked soyoil imports from Argentina, citing sanitary reasons.
However, the move was widely seen as retaliation for barriers imposed on Chinese goods by Argentina amid a host of anti-dumping investigations. Argentina, the world's third-largest corn exporter, is also set to smash last year's corn record, with between 26 million and 27 million tons grown, Basso said. That would be up sharply from the 22.5 million tons grown last year, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. About two-thirds of the corn crop has been planted to date and conditions are good after recent showers. Basso said that about 70% of the corn crop would likely be cleared for export after about 8 million tons are set aside for domestic consumption. Argentina tightly regulates corn and wheat exports, only granting export permits once it has confirmed sufficient stocks for local residents. While farmers worry that dry weather towards the end of the year due to the La Nina weather phenomenon may affect the crops, for now soil moisture levels are excellent across much of the farm belt.
That has boosted prospects for the developing wheat crop, with Basso estimating production of about 13 million tons. That's up a million tons from the Agriculture Ministry's current forecast. Of that crop, Argentina, one of the world's leading wheat exporters, will likely ship almost 7 million tons, with most going to Brazil. Basso estimated domestic consumption next year at 5.5 million to 6 million tons.

Rising Food Costs: Hot Potato In China (Source : CME)
China's hunger is pushing prices of food commodities sharply higher lately. Back home, this boom is becoming a source of worry. Over the next decade, China's annual grain demand is likely to reach 573 million tons, which is above its current production levels. Beijing may swiftly become more reliant than ever on global markets for a class of commodities it is desperate to keep mostly home-grown. Soybeans traded in Chicago are at the highest price in 14 months, largely because of the strength of Chinese demand. Palm oil on the Malaysia Derivatives Exchange breached a 27-month peak this week. Thai rice prices are nearing a six-month high. Inside China, this already has gone from just market play to a matter of public interest. In October, the price of staples such as cooking oil and sugar sold in China's supermarkets jumped 10% to 13%. News of food shortages -- in corn, wheat, garlic, mung beans and sugar -- have dominated local headlines this year.
Food is a political hot potato, and accounts for a third of the basket of goods used to calculate inflation. So far, the government has chosen to respond within markets. It has auctioned millions of tons in reserves of grain, cooking oil, sugar and cotton, and publicly threatened to punish "speculators." Last week, the central bank raised interest rates, in part to slow price gains. Nonetheless, the gains have been accelerating. True, the last reported inflation rate -- 3.6% in September -- was still well below the 12-year high of 8.7%, touched in early 2008, but food-price increase are back at those high rates. Back then, Beijing imposed price caps on grains, edible oils, meat, milk and eggs to bring inflation back to an even keel. It took a year and a global financial crisis before the caps were lifted. Certainly, that is bitter medicine, which limits efficiency and risks hurting product quality.
But with the world betting on a richer, hungrier giant, the government knows the danger of inflation -- and the difficult job of controlling it -- is back.

Palm extends losses on dollar; China soyoil off 2-yr top
KUALA LUMPUR, Oct 27 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil extended losses and China's soyoil market tumbled from two-year highs as a stronger dollar made commodities priced in the currency expensive and unattractive as an inflation hedge.
"Palm oil followed a correction of China's soyoil and profit taking on a stronger dollar," said a trader in Kuala Lumpur.

China buys more Argentina soyoil as price rises-CNGOIC
BEIJING, Oct 27 (Reuters) - Chinese companies booked about 250,000 tonnes of soyoil this week, mainly from Argentina, for March-to-May shipment after Beijing lifted a ban on imports from the world's largest exporter, an official think tank said.
Some of the shipments could come from Brazil as an alternative supplier, the China National Grain and Oils Information Centre (CNGOIC) said in a report on its website ( on Wednesday.

China soy crush output to top 95 mln T 2010/2011-CNGOIC
BEIJING, Oct 27 (Reuters) - China will add 11 million tonnes of new soy crush capacity in 2010/2011 (Oct/Sept), with total crushing capacity to top 95 million tonnes annually, said the China National Grain and Oils Information Centre (CNGOIC).
The capacity expansion has boosted China's increase of soy imports,the centre said in a report on its website (

Renewed rains seen replenishing Argentine soils
BUENOS AIRES, Oct 26 (Reuters) - Rains in Argentine corn and soy-farming regions over the last week should replenish soil moisture levels and help crops withstand drier conditions caused by the La Nina weather anomaly, a metrologist said onTuesday.
The South American country is the No. 1 global supplier of soyoil and soymeal and the third-biggest exporter of uncrushed beans, so markets are closely watching for any signs of dry conditions that could harm crops.

Siat's Ghana palm oil to go green in 2011
LONDON, Oct 26 (Reuters) - African palm oil producer Siat Group is set to get its Ghanaian output certified as sustainable by early next year, the Brussels based firm said on Tuesday.
The Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO), an industry body of consumers, green groups and plantation companies, was formed in 2004 and aims to promote growth and use of sustainable oil palm products.

Wednesday, October 27, 2010

20101027 1821 FCPO EOD Daily Chart Study.

FCPO closed : 3037, changed : -16 points, volume : higher.
Bollinger band reading : correction range bound upside biased.
MACD Histrogram : turned lower, buyer realising profit.
Support : 3020, 3000, 2970 level.
Resistant : 3050, 3070, 3100 level.
Comment :
Continue profit taking activities lead FCPO to slips lower with better volume transacted following lower soy oil futures price development plus a weaker crude oil futures price as US Dollar continue to trade firmer. Daily chart formed a long lower shadow doji bar candle closing the gap between last week Friday and Monday and recover upward closed off the low of the day with the reading still suggesting a correction range bound upside biased market development.
When to buy : buy at support and weakness with quick cut loss and profit target.
When to sell : sell at resistant or strength with quick cut loss and profit target.

20101027 1736 FKLI EOD Daily Chart Study.

FKLI closed : 1499.5, changed : +1 point,  volume : lower.
Bollinger band reading : correction range bound upside biased.
MACD Histrogram : recovering, buyer holding on.
Support : 1485, 1470, 1458 level.
Resistant : 1500, 1530, 1550 level.
Comment :
A wild day FKLI recorded marginal gain traded in lower but still relatively high volume transaction(mostly rollover activities) after market tested new high and retreat lower closing off the high below 1500 psychological level. Daily chart formed a long upper shadow doji bar candle tested above upper Bollinger band resistant level with the reading remained suggesting a correction range bound upside biased market development.
When to buy : buy at support or weakness with quick cut loss and profit target.
When to sell : sell at resistant or strength with quick cut loss and profit target.

20101027 0949 Local & Global Economics News.

Malaysia: Household debt not a worry, says Zeti
Going forward, Malaysia will implement measures to ensure it will not be a destabilising factor for the economy, says Bank Negara governor Tan Sri Dr Zeti Akhtar Aziz. “Bank Negara Malaysia is not concerned about rising household debt as the level of bad loans is still low and there are various ways to keep it in check”, she mentioned. The Malaysian Institute of Economic Research had noted that household debt had risen to 77% of GDP last year, the highest in Asia, from 63.9% in 2008. (BT)

Singapore: Industrial output growth accelerated in September
Singapore’s industrial production rose at the fastest pace in three months, an advance that may ease as a slowdown in world economic growth hurts demand for electronics and pharmaceuticals. Manufacturing, which accounts for about a quarter of the economy, climbed 26.2% in September from a year earlier, after a revised 7.7% increase in August, the Economic Development Board said. The median estimate of 17 economists surveyed was for a 19% gain. (Bloomberg)

South Korea: Economic growth slowed to 0.7% as Won jumped
South Korea’s economic expansion slowed in the third quarter as the nation’s surging currency threatened exports and global growth cooled, signaling more room for the central bank to pause interest-rate increases. Gross domestic product advanced 0.7% from the previous three months, when it gained 1.4%, the central bank said. That was less than the 0.8% median forecast in a survey of 10 economists. From a year earlier, GDP rose 4.5%. (Bloomberg)

UK: Growth sustains surprise momentum as S&P spares AAA grade
The UK economy grew more than forecast in the third quarter and Standard & Poor’s said the nation no longer faces the risk of downgrade as pressure eases on the Bank of England to add more stimulus. S&P restored its outlook on Britain’s credit rating to “stable” from “negative” after warning in May last year that the nation’s top AAA grade was at risk. Gross domestic product rose 0.8% in the quarter through September after climbing 1.2% in the previous three months, the Office for National Statistics said. (Bloomberg)

UK: GDP probably slowed; BOE keeps ‘fingers crossed’
Britain’s economic growth probably slowed in the three months through September to a third of the pace of the previous quarter, keeping pressure on policy makers to consider adding stimulus. Gross domestic product rose 0.4% in the period, compared with a 1.2% increase in the second quarter, according to the median forecast in a survey of 35 economists. (Bloomberg)

US: Confidence increases more than forecast
Confidence among US consumers rose in October from a seven-month low as households turned less pessimistic on the outlook for the economic recovery. The Conference Board’s sentiment index climbed to 50.2, exceeding the median forecast in a survey, from a revised 48.6 in September. Another report showed homeprice gains receded in August after a tax credit lapsed. (Bloomberg)

20101027 0947 Malaysia Corporate News.

RM4.50-RM5.20 a share for Petronas Chemicals IPO: Sources
The Employees Provident Fund and Kumpulan Wang Persaraan will be "cornerstone" investors in the IPO, buying a combined 445m shares, according to the term-sheet. Petronas Chemicals Group, the petrochemicals unit of state oil company Petroliam Nasional (Petronas), aims to raise between USD3.7bn and USD4.2bn (RM11.5bn and RM13bn) in Malaysia's biggest initial public offering (IPO), two people familiar with the matter said. Banks advising on the sale set an indicative price range of RM4.50 to RM5.20 per share for institutions late Monday, they said, speaking on condition of anonymity. Two Malaysian pension funds will come in as key investors, according to a term-sheet e-mailed to fund managers. (BT)

Talks on Bakun may wrap up mid-2011
Energy, Green Technology and Water Minister Datuk Seri Peter Chin Fah Kui expects negotiations between the Finance Ministry and the Sarawak state government on the sale of the Bakun hydropower project to conclude by mid-2011. "I don't know the details but they are still in talks. The Bakun dam is scheduled to generate power by mid-2011. I would expect it (the sale) to conclude by then," Chin told reporters after delivering a keynote address at the ABB Executive Forum in Kuala Lumpur yesterday. Currently, Malaysia's energy mix is dependent on natural gas and coal. In view of diversification of energy mix, nuclear power is seen as an energy source post- 2020. Chin reiterated that the Cabinet had approved the setting up of a nuclear power plant and the Economic Council had given the ministry the go-ahead to start identifying suitable sites. (BT)

One mega Islamic bank this year
Bank Negara will announce one mega Islamic bank by this year under its plan to issue up to two mega Islamic bank licences. “We will announce one mega Islamic bank,” governor Tan Sri Dr Zeti Akhtar Aziz said yesterday. It was previously reported that Malaysia has shortlisted two foreign banks to be licensed as mega Islamic banks with a minimum capital of USD1bn each under the Government’s financial sector liberalization measures announced last year. (StarBiz)

Malaysia-India trade pact
Malaysia will sign today a bilateral trade agreement with Asian economic giant India, paving the way for strong trade and investment ties. The two countries recently concluded the Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement (Ceca), which had been negotiated for the past two years. Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak and his Indian counterpart, Dr Manmohan Singh, will witness the "lock in" of the pact today. International Trade and Industry Minister Datuk Seri Mustapa Mohamed and Indian Commerce and Industry Minister Anand Sharma will sign on behalf of their respective countries. According to the Ministry of International Trade and Industry, the agreement will also stipulate the three main timelines for the Ceca. For instance, the legal aspects have to be cleared by end-November and the formal Ceca has to be signed by 31 Jan next year. The Ceca itself must be in force on 1 July. India, which ranks as Malaysia's 12th largest trading partner, expects trade with Malaysia to jump 50% to USD15bn (RM46.5bn) by 2015 with the trade pact in place. (BT)

Equine Capital to sell Wisma KLIH for RM58m
Equine Capital is selling Wisma KLIH for RM58m, the bulk of which will go towards the repayment of its bank borrowing. In a filling with Bursa Malaysia yesterday, Equine said its wholly owned subsidiary Kuala Lumpur Industries (KLIB) had entered into a sale and purchase agreement with wonderful vantage SB, a company engaged in property acquisition and development. The RM58m price comprises RM48m for the freehold property and RM10m for renovation and refurbishment, it said. (Financial Daily)

Court declares MTD deal valid
MTD Capital told Bursa Malaysia yesterday that the Philippine Supreme Court has declared as valid and constitutional the supplemental toll operation agreement for MTD’s South Luzon Toll Expressway project. However, the court declared void and unconstitutional clauses that said that the Toll Regulatory Board had to compensate MTD’s South Luzon Tollway Corp/the Philippine National Manila Toll Expressway Systems Inc for its loss of revenue resulting from the non-implementation of the approved authorized toll price and toll rate adjustments. Any party wishing to appeal the decision has 15 days from 25 Oct. Trading of MTD shares was suspended until 5pm yesterday and will resume trading today at 9am. (StarBiz)

Malaysia plans sukuk for public to spur trade
Malaysia plans to let issuers sell to individual investors sukuk that can be traded on the local stock exchange as the Government seeks to reverse a 24% decline in sales in the world’s biggest market for Islamic bonds. Bursa Malaysia, the exchange operator, was working with regulators on rules to enable companies to issue Islamic debt that would be affordable to the public, chief executive officer Datuk Yusli Yusoff said in an e-mailed reply to questions last week. Issuance of the securities fell to RM19.8bn this year from RM26.2bn in 2009, the steepest drop since 2003, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. (StarBiz)

20101027 0835 Global Market News.

Oil falls on stronger dollar, U.S. supply jump
SINGAPORE, Oct 27 (Reuters) - Oil fell on Wednesday as the dollar strengthened and after an industry report showed a bigger-than-expected gain in U.S. crude inventories last week.
"The dollar is clearly a major driver of oil prices at present, and our prediction that this would be the case is now being confirmed by the increased correlations evident in the market," JP Morgan analysts headed by Lawrence Eagles said.

GLOBAL MARKETS: Dollar higher on Fed doubts, stocks flat
NEW YORK, Oct 26 (Reuters) - The dollar rose broadly on Tuesday as investors speculated the Federal Reserve would proceed more cautiously in announcing any asset-buying next week, scaling back bets against the greenback.
"Everything is dependent on the FOMC and people don't want to take aggressive positions ahead of this very big decision," said Stephan Maier, currency strategist at Unicredit in Milan.

Gold lower, silver steady after CFTC comment
SINGAPORE, Oct 27 (Reuters) - Gold edged lower as the market looked set to consolidate ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve's decision on further monetary easing next week, while a stronger dollar also weighed.
"The market is entering a period of consolidation. The euro is under pressure and the dollar isn't doing a great deal, making the precious metals market quiet," said Ellison Chu, manager of precious metals at Standard Bank Asia in Hong Kong.

China should significantly boost gold in reserves -media
BEIJING, Oct 27 (Reuters) - China should significantly boost the amount of gold  held in state reserves, a newspaper run by China's Ministry of Commerce said on Wednesday, citing a local researcher.
Meng Qingfa, a researcher with China Chamber of International Commerce, was quoted by the International Business Daily as saying that China should eventually boost its gold reserves to a level equal to that held by the United States. 

PRECIOUS-Gold edges lower as dollar firms, eyes Fed meet
LONDON, Oct 26 (Reuters) - Gold edged lower in Europe on Tuesday as the dollar firmed a touch, but held near $1,340 an ounce as investors awaited clues from U.S. data due this week on the prospect of further monetary easing in the United States.
"Markets are now in the process of discounting the weekend impact of the G20 meeting and are bracing for the next big move by the Federal Reserve," said Pradeep Unni, senior analyst at Richcomm Global Services.

FOREX-Dollar steadies; sterling jumps on GDP data
LONDON, Oct 26 (Reuters) - The dollar steadied on Tuesday, with investors wary of pushing it lower due to uncertainty about what easing measures the Federal Reserve may take next week, while UK economic growth figures lifted sterling.
"Japan has pointed out quite clearly that they will intervene in dollar/yen if it falls too quickly and the market is aware there is no easy one-way bet on dollar/yen downside," said Stephan Maier, currency strategist at Unicredit in Milan.

Second thoughts on QE lift dollar, hit stocks
LONDON, Oct 26 (Reuters) - Second thoughts about the outcome of the next Federal Reserve meeting weakened stocks and steadied the dollar's decline, underlining how crucial the prospect of more Fed asset-buying has become to financial markets.
"The dollar is in a bit of a holding pattern. The market is still mulling over the U.S. QE story and dollar selling is a bit less of a one-way bet than it was," said Jeremy Stretch, currency strategist at CIBC.

20101027 0834 Soy Oil & Palm Oil Related News.

Brazil soy belt gets rain, not right kind yet-Somar
SAO PAULO, Oct 26 (Reuters) - Some areas of Brazil's No. 1 soybean producing state Mato Grosso have seen good rainfall in October but others have not, which highlights one of the problems that La Nina is likely to cause for the grain crop.
Private meteorologists Somar said farmers in Mato Grosso will have to wait until Nov. 6 but more widespread rains are on the way. Several producers in the state are about a month or so behind in planting due to the drier weather.

China soy crush output to top 95 mln T 2010/2011-CNGOIC
BEIJING, Oct 27 (Reuters) - China will add 11 million tonnes of new soy crush capacity in 2010/2011 (Oct/Sept), with total crushing capacity to top 95 million tonnes annually, said the China National Grain and Oils Information Centre (CNGOIC).
The capacity expansion has boosted China's increase of soy imports,the centre said in a report on its website (
Brazil 2011 cotton output hit record -sector
BRASILIA, Oct 26 (Reuters) - Brazil's 2011 cotton harvest could achieve record output of 1.7 million tonnes in 2011, sector sources said, a leap of nearly 50 percent from this year as prices which hit a new high on Tuesday, motivate growers.
"International prices are spectacular ... The local market price is good. Production costs are stabilized ... Cotton is more profitable than soy," said Sergio De Marco, head of a government-industry cotton group that meets regularly.

Soy slips from 14-month top on dollar, wheat steady
SINGAPORE, Oct 27 (Reuters) - Chicago soy futures fell 0.8 percent, after hitting a new 14-month top, while corn lost half a percent as a strong dollar weighed on commodity markets.
"There has been relative move in the U.S. dollar across the board, so you are seeing the dollar play in commodities," said said Jonathan Barratt, managing director at Commodity Broking Services in Sydney.

Soy product futures inched higher, recovering from initial losses in step with a bounce in soybean futures. Solid underlying demand for the products helped keep a floor beneath prices as well, analysts said. December soyoil settled 0.06 cents, or 0.1%, higher at 49.53 cents a pound. December soymeal ended $0.90, or 0.3%, higher at $335.50 a short ton. (Source : CME)

Rabobank Raises CBOT Soybean Price Forecast On China Demand (Source : CME)
Rabobank Tuesday raised its forecast for bellwether Chicago soybean futures due to strong demand in China. Rabobank increased its average forecast for Chicago Board of Trade nearby-month futures in the January-March period next year by 23% to $12.75 a bushel. It raised the forecast for the current quarter to $11.75/bushel from $10.50/bushel. "Global soybean demand remains exceptionally robust and even with prices at current levels, there is no real evidence of demand rationing," Rabobank said in a monthly report. A combination of healthy crush margins and record export bookings indicates that China's soybean imports in the year to Sept. 30, 2011 are likely to exceed the 55 million tons currently forecast by the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
China is the world's largest importer of soybeans, with imports jumping to 50 million metric tons last year from 41 million tons the previous year. The USDA is understating global demand, Rabobank said. It said China is the primary driver for this demand, with a 60% share in the global soybean trade. Rabobank also raised its average CBOT corn futures forecast for next quarter to $5.80/bushel from $5.25/bushel, and for this quarter to $5.50/bushel from $5.25/bushel.

USDA Sticks To Tame Food-Price Inflation Outlook (Source : CME)
The Agriculture Department is standing by its forecast for unusually tame food-price inflation this year but warned that the broad rally in farm commodity prices since midsummer will take a bigger bite out of consumers' wallets next year. In its monthly food-price inflation forecast released Monday, the USDA stuck with the prediction it first made in late August that the government's widely followed consumer-price index for food will rise between 0.5% and 1.5% this year, which would be the smallest increase since 1992. The USDA also left unchanged its forecast for retail food prices to climb by a more typical rate of between 2% and 3% in 2011. But Ephraim Leibtag, the USDA economist responsible for the forecast, said surging prices of commodities such as corn and wheat are increasing the odds that the 2011 food inflation rate will be at the high end of his forecast range.
"I wouldn't be shocked if we got to 3% if the current conditions continue," Mr. Leibtag said. Forecasting the food inflation rate is unusually difficult this year. Agricultural commodity prices are booming even though the U.S. economy is weak. Many executives in the food manufacturing and supermarket sectors are nervous about passing along all of their higher ingredient costs to consumers who seem willing to shop around for bargains. The prices farmers are being paid for everything from corn and wheat to hogs and milk have soared this year. U.S. farm exports are surging amid strong demand from emerging economies such as China, which are recovering from the global recession far faster than the developed world. At the same time, supplies of U.S. commodities such as beef and pork are tight in the wake of output cuts on U.S. farms during the recession. Compared with a year ago, the price of Texas steers is up 19%, soft red wheat is up 82%, butter 74% and corn 42%.
Last week, some major food brands began signaling their intent to raise prices. General Mills Inc. said it would increase prices in November on a quarter of its breakfast cereals, and fast-food giant McDonald's Corp. said it would raise menu prices. But other players in the food sector are still cutting prices to satisfy recession-weary consumers. Last week, supermarket chain Supervalu Inc. cut its earnings forecast amid continued price-cutting by rivals. Economists say high unemployment is casting a big shadow over food prices. Not only is it making shoppers more price-sensitive, it is helping to keep a lid on labor costs, which takes some pressure off food manufacturers to raise prices.

Shaken Grain Industry Pushes USDA On Recent Cuts In Crop Reports (Source : CME)
U.S. agriculture officials faced sharp questions from a grain industry shaken by dramatic swings in recent government crop estimates. More than 100 people including farmers, grain traders and executives from commercial grain companies attended the U.S. Department of Agriculture annual data users' meeting. The unprecedented turnout was driven by a surprisingly sharp cut by the agency in its corn crop estimates earlier this month. The change sent futures surging and further undermined confidence in the agency's closely-followed forecasts. "This room today is expressing concern about further cuts down the road in the U.S. corn crop," said Rich Feltes, an analyst for brokerage firm R.J. O'Brien, to USDA officials. Those at the meeting criticized the sharply reduced corn-harvest estimate, issued in a monthly report Oct. 8, saying the USDA should have detected weakened crop yields earlier in the season. The U.S. corn crop developed earlier than usual this year due to early planting and warm weather.
Attendees attempted to gauge the potential for another shock, asking a top USDA official how much of the government's sample corn fields had been harvested before the Oct. 8 report. Nearly 91% of USDA's sample corn plots had been harvested ahead of the October report, far greater than earlier reports, said Joseph Prusacki, director of statistics for USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service. Prusacki reiterated the sharp cut in corn output reflected problems in estimating the average weight of corn kernels. The actual weight came in lower than the estimated weight used in earlier reports, helping to drive the sharp cut. "Until we get real grain weights, it's very difficult to get a handle on the size of the crop," said Prusacki, who cited the grain-weight issue in an interview last week with Dow Jones Newswires. Besides estimates, the USDA uses actual field visits and farmer surveys to determine its harvest estimates.
USDA officials said prior to the October report farmers may have mistakenly thought the crop would turn out better than it did and reported that way on their surveys. "Farmers have been a little bit slower to respond to the lower yields," said Lance Honig, chief of the crops branch for USDA's statistics service. A second issued raised at the meeting were the reasons behind a larger-than-expected estimate for corn supplies in storage. One concern had been the inclusion of corn from the current harvest in those estimates. The storage report is only supposed to include corn from previous harvests. Prusacki said the department reviewed its data to ensure it did not include corn from the current harvest. It was "possible" for fresh corn to slip into the data, but officials do "everything we can" to prevent it, he said. The larger-than-expected September supply estimate, which drove a sharp drop in prices after its release, followed a smaller-than-expected supply estimate in June that sent prices soaring.
The estimates are issued quarterly.

Corn dips on profit-taking, weather woes support wheat
SINGAPORE, Oct 26 (Reuters) - U.S. corn futures slipped  as investors booked profit after a 1.6 percent gain in the previous session, while wheat ticked higher as poor rains in U.S. winter crop areas supported the market.
"There is certainly unease at the growing strength of La Nina," said Garry Booth, a trader at MF Global Australia.

USDA defends US corn stocks data at data meeting
CHICAGO, Oct 25 (Reuters) - U.S. Department of Agriculture officials on Monday stood by their last two quarterly U.S. corn inventory reports but said the poor quality of the 2009 harvest may have played a role in large swings in the figures.
The inventory reports, along with an Oct. 8 corn yield estimate that came in well below trade expectations, whip-sawed the Chicago Board of Trade grain markets, sparking pointed questions at USDA's annual data meeting Monday in Chicago.

Palm oil retreats as dollar firms
KUALA LUMPUR, Oct 26 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures eased on profit taking due to a firmer dollar, but losses were limited by strong Chinese demand for soybeans for crushing into vegetable oils.
"Currently we're getting all support from the U.S. soy complex," said a trader in Kuala Lumpur. "The market needs factors like very strong export figures and fear of lower stocks to reach 3,100 ringgit."

New Brazil soy crop seen 1 pct below record-Safras
SAO PAULO, Oct 25 (Reuters) - Brazil's 2010/11 soybean crop that farmers began planting a few weeks ago is seen at 67.69 million tonnes, down 1 percent from the record 68.1 million tonnes harvested last season, analysts Safras e Mercado said.
In the analyst's second forecast of the new crop, Safras said it had raise its new outlook from the July view of 67.18 million tonnes due to a slightly greater planted area than previously expected.

U.S. corn, soy harvests remain on record pace
CHICAGO, Oct 25 (Reuters) - U.S. farmers kept up the record pace in this year's corn and soybean harvests, according to U.S. Agriculture Department data released on Monday.
Corn harvest was 83 percent complete as of Oct. 24, up from 20 percent a year ago and well above the five-year average of 49 percent.

Tuesday, October 26, 2010

20101026 1815 FCPO EOD Daily Chart Study.

FCPO closed : 3053, changed : -18 points, volume : lower.
Bollinger band reading : correction range bound upside biased.
MACD Histrogram : turned lower, buyer realising profit.
Support : 3050, 3020, 3000 level.
Resistant : 3070, 3100, 3150 level.
Comment :
FCPO retreats lower recorded decline in lesser volume changed hand in tandem with lower soy oil futures price development as US Dollar rebounding after hitting 15 years low triggered buyer in lock in partial profit.
Daily chart formed a down bar candle pulling back from the 2 year highs with the reading turned into suggesting a correction range bound upside biased market possibly closing the gap near 3020 level testing lower support levels.
When to buy : buy at support and weakness with quick cut loss and profit target.
When to sell : sell at resistant or strength with quick cut loss and profit target.

20101026 1732 FKLI EOD Daily Chart Study.

FKLI closed : 1498.5, changed : +4 points,  volume : higher.
Bollinger band reading : correction range bound upside biased.
MACD Histrogram : recovering, buyer holding on.
Support : 1485, 1470, 1458 level.
Resistant : 1500, 1530, 1550 level.
Comment :
Ultra high volume transaction mostly due to rollover activities to forward month contract FKLI recorded gain after major regional market traded mixed. Daily chart formed a long lower shadow doji bar candle as market still having correction range bound upside biased reading testing support and resistant level.
When to buy : buy at support or weakness with quick cut loss and profit target.
When to sell : sell at resistant or strength with quick cut loss and profit target.

20101026 1523 Breaking News on CPO!

Indonesia raises Nov CPO, cocoa bean tax to 10 pct
JAKARTA, Oct 26 (Reuters) - Indonesia will set its crude palm oil export tax at 10 percent in November, up from 7.5 percent in October, the trade ministry said on Tuesday.
Higher export tax would mean Indonesia's palm oil products will be more expensive than rival Malaysia, potentially slowing exports in November from the world's top palm oil producer.

20101026 1020 Global Economics News.

Japan: Export growth slows in sign of cooling demand
Japan’s exports grew at the slowest pace this year in September as overseas shipments increased 14.4% y-o-y, a sign the country is losing its chief engine for growth as demand abroad tempers. Nevertheless, it still beat economists’ median estimate of a 9.6% gain. M-o-m, shipments fell a seasonally adjusted 0.1%. Meanwhile, imports climbed 9.9% y-o-y and the trade surplus rose to JPY797bn (USD9.8bn). (Bloomberg)

South Korea: Economic growth probably slowed
South Korea’s economic expansion probably slowed last quarter as the nation’s currency surged the most in Asia and global growth cooled, imperiling exports and increasing scope to extend a pause in interest-rate increases. GDP is expected to advance 0.8% in the three months through September from the second quarter, when it gained 1.4%, according to median estimates by Bloomberg. (Bloomberg)

EU: Industrial orders increase more than forecast
European industrial orders increased more than twice as much as economists forecast in August, led by demand for capital goods such as machinery. Orders in the euro area jumped 5.3% from July, when they fell 1.8%. Economists had forecast a gain of 2.2%. Y-o-y, industrial orders rose 24% after rising 12% in July. Orders for capital goods rose 8.1% m-o-m while orders for intermediate goods increased 3.4% and demand for durable consumer goods jumped 5.4%. Orders excluding heavy transport equipment such as ships and trains rose 4.1%. (Bloomberg)

US: Existing home sales rise more than forecast in September
Sales of US existing homes rose in September by the most on record, a sign cheaper borrowing costs are helping stabilize an industry that’s battling the headwinds of foreclosures and joblessness. Purchases increased 10% to a 4.53m annual rate from 4.12m in August, beating estimates of a rise to 4.3m. The median price fell 2.4% y-o-y to USD171,700. Purchases of single-family homes rose 10% to a 3.97m annual rate m-o-m. The number of previously owned homes on the market fell 1.9% to 4.04m. At the current sales pace, it would take 10.7 months to sell those houses, compared with 12 months in August. (Bloomberg)

U.S: Bernanke says regulators reviewing foreclosures . U.S. banking regulators are examining mortgage lenders' procedures to see if they are improperly foreclosing on homes and expect preliminary findings soon, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said. "We are looking intensively at the firms' policies, procedures, and internal controls related to foreclosures and seeking to determine whether systematic weaknesses are leading to improper foreclosures," Bernanke said at a housing conference in Arlington, Virginia. (Source: Bloomberg)

20101026 1019 Malaysia Corporate News.

Perwaja invests RM200m, mulls iron ore mining
Steel manufacturer Perwaja Holdings Bhd plans to build a pelletisation plant in Kemaman, Terengganu, and is considering mining operations that would help to cut its dependence in imported iron ore. The plant may help Perwaja to save at least 15% from its production cost once it commences operation by end-2012, according to executive chairman Tan Sri Abu Sahid Mohamed in Kuala Lumpur. Perwaja appointed Sinosteel as the key engineering firm to design and build the plant, which will have an annual capacity of 1.2m tonnes in the first phase while the second phase will see an additional 1.2m tonnes. (Malaysian Reserve)

Two more companies offer 4G broadband
Two companies have started offering the 4G wireless broadband service on a trial basis, with eventual speed hitting 100Mbps (mega bytes per second) by the first quarter of next year. "There are already several companies offering an almost 100Mbps Internet connectivity service. Such speed should be looked upon as an extra reach," Information, Communication and Culture Minister Datuk Seri Rais Yatim said. He declined to name the two companies but said that they are among nine companies that are offering the new 4G long-term evolution (LTE) technology. (BT)

Glomac acquires Suria Stonor condo units
Glomac Bhd is buying 18 units of apartment in Suria Stonor Condominium for RM38.41m as an investment. It views the property as one with a potential for a quick turnaround, Glomac said. The purchase is at a discount of 35% to the last transacted price of RM1,000 per sq ft for comparable properties at Suria Stonor. (BT)

SP Setia to launch four residential projects worth RM546m
SP Setia Bhd plans to launch four new residential projects with an estimated gross sales value RM546m on the island beginning this December and next year. SP Setia property (North) general manager S. Rajoo told StarBiz that the projects comprised the RM175m Setia Greens, RM60.5m Brook Residences, RM170m Setia V Residences, and the RM139m Pearl Villas in the Setia Pearl Island scheme. Setia Greens, comprising 149 three-storey terraces and 18 semi-detached houses with dual frontage in Sungai Ara, would be launched in December. “The selling price starts from RM918,000 onwards for terraced units with built-up areas ranging from 2,400sq ft and 3,200sq ft. “The selling price for the semi-detached units, with built-up areas of around 3,300sq ft, is around RM1.6m onwards,” he said. Subsequently the group would launch Brook Residences in February 2011 and the Pearl Villas in April, and Setia V Residences in the second half of next year, Rajoo said. (StarBiz)

SGX to buy Aussie bourse for US$8.3bn
Singapore Exchange (SGX) has agreed to a USD8.3bn (USD1 = RM3.10) takeover of Australia's ASX Ltd to create Asia's fourth-largest stock exchange, aiming to cut costs and fight growing competition. However, the first major consolidation of Asia-Pacific exchanges faces regulatory hurdles, including getting Australia's parliament to lift a 15% ownership cap on the ASX and approval from the country's Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB). Under a deal still being negotiated into the early hours of yesterday morning, SGX offered a combination of AUD22.00 (AUD1 = RM3.07) in cash plus 3.473 of its own shares per ASX share, valuing the Australian operator at AUD8.4bn or AUD48.00 a share - a 37% premium to their last trade on Friday. The companies said they hope to close the deal in the second quarter of next year. (BT)

AirAsia: AirAsia X to gain from ministry programme. The Ministry of Transport's (MOT) plan to develop a transparent and liberalised air rights allocation framework could finally see AirAsia X getting the much sought after rights to fly to Seoul and Sydney. Under the Economic Transformation Programme road-map, MOT has been tasked to facilitate the formulation of an air rights allocation framework to further develop the tourism and airline industries. The framework will enable local airlines to plan and launch additional flights to priority cities in a more efficient manner after additional air rights have been negotiated. (Source: Business Times)

Public Bank: Cambodian unit sets up securities business. Public Bank Bhd unit Cambodian Public Bank plc (CampuBank) has established a wholly-owned subsidiary, CampuBank Securities plc, in Cambodia. CampuBank Securities had obtained a securities company license from the Securities and Exchange Commission of Cambodia, which would enable it to carry out securities underwriting business, securities dealing business, securities brokerage business and investment advisory business in Cambodia. The issued and paid up capital of CampuBank Securities was equivalent to about RM31.1m. (Source: The Star)

SP Setia: To launch four residential projects. SP Setia Bhd plans to launch 4 new residential projects with an estimated gross sales value of RM546m in Penang beginning this December and next year. The projects comprised the RM175m Setia Greens, RM60.5m Brook Residences, RM170m Setia V Residences, and RM139m Pearl Villas in the Setia Pearl Island scheme. SP Setia property's (North) GM S.Rajoo said Penang would continue to play an important revenue generating role in the group?s property development business. (Source: The Star)

20101025 0846 Global Market News.

Gold steady ahead of Fed move; spot trade thin
SINGAPORE, Oct 26 (Reuters) - Gold was steady as investors turned focus on expectations of more monetary easing by the Federal Reserve, and physical buyers were on the sidelines awaiting a clear direction on prices.
"People are waiting for next week's Fed meeting to see how much money they are going to pump into the market," said Ronald Leung, a physical dealer at Lee Cheong Gold Dealers.

Asian stocks slip as dollar fights higher
HONG KONG, Oct 26 (Reuters) - Asian stocks slipped but were near a 28-month high, while the dollar edged up against the euro as dealers took some profits with debate about the outcome of the next Federal Reserve meeting clouding the near-term outlook.
After no major policy initiatives emerged from a Group of 20 finance ministers meeting over the weekend, investors had kept selling the dollar on expectations that further asset-buying from the Fed will lead to debasement of the U.S. currency. 

Oil under pressure from dollar as currency link deepens
SINGAPORE, Oct 26 (Reuters) - Oil fell towards $82, under pressure from an expected gain in U.S. crude stockpiles for three out of four weeks and a stronger dollar, as the currency's volatility exposed the market to price swings.
"It could be the oil market is just taking a breather and will just trade range-bound today," said Serene Lim, a Singapore-based oil analyst at ANZ.

China raises fuel prices 3 pct
BEIJING, Oct 25 (Reuters) - China will raise retail fuel prices by about 3 percent from Tuesday in its first hike in 7 months, a move bringing prices back to near record highs but unlikely to dampen oil demand in the world number-two consumer.
Retail ceiling prices for gasoline will increase by 230 yuan ($34.54) per tonne and diesel by 220 yuan, the government said on Monday, confirming an earlier Reuters report. 

OIL: Oil pares losses as dollar retreats
SINGAPORE, Oct 26 (Reuters) - Oil pared early losses on Tuesday as the dollar retreated from session highs, but prices remained capped by forecasts showing U.S. crude inventories rose for the third time in four weeks last week.
The inverse correlation between the dollar and oil has become deeply entrenched over the past few days as investors buy emerging-market shares whenever the greenback drops.

COMMODITY MARKETS: Up broadly as dollar slides without G20 help
NEW YORK/SINGAPORE, Oct 25 (Reuters) - Commodities surged on Monday as the dollar tumbled on market perceptions that the Group of 20 countries at their weekend meeting did not agree on concrete steps to stop competitive currency devaluations.
"The differences still persist between countries as to what constitutes proper monetary and currency policy," said Daniel Briesemann, analyst at Frankfurt-based Commerzbank.

GLOBAL MARKETS: Absence of firm G20 pact sends dollar lower
NEW YORK, Oct 25 (Reuters) - Investors on Monday continued a familiar pattern of heavily selling dollars and buying emerging-market shares, calculating that a Group of 20 meeting that produced no firm policy initiatives would leave market trends unchanged.
"By demanding 'market determined exchange rates' (at the G20) the U.S is opening the floodgates for a further dollar depreciation due to the ultra-expansionary monetary policy in the U.S.," Commerzbank analysts said in a note.

China raises fuel prices 3 pct, to tweak scheme
BEIJING, Oct 25 (Reuters) - China will raise retail fuel prices by about 3 percent from Tuesday in its first hike in 7 months, a move bringing prices back to near record highs but unlikely to dampen oil demand in the world number-two consumer.
Retail ceiling prices for gasoline will increase by 230 yuan ($34.54) per tonne and diesel by 220 yuan, the government said on Monday, confirming an earlier Reuters report.

PRECIOUS-Gold up, palladium highest since 2001 on dollar
LONDON, Oct 25 (Reuters) - Gold rose more than one percent on Monday and palladium hit its highest in nearly a decade, as the dollar fell after weekend comments at the G20 meeting and investors awaited a speech by the Federal Reserve Chairman.
"This is to do with the fact that the G20 communique failed to produce anything concrete on the coordinated exchange rates policy," Andrey Kryuchenkov, analyst with VTB Capital, said of the dollar's loss and gold's subsequent rise.

FOREX-Dollar's woes resume after G20, Fed in focus
LONDON, Oct 25 (Reuters) - The dollar dropped broadly on Monday, hitting a 15-year low versus the yen, as a Group of 20 agreement to shun competitive currency devaluations was taken as a green light to resume dollar-selling by investors.
"The G-20 was seen as a hurdle by some and now that is over, investors are back to do what they are most comfortable with -- dollar-selling," said Ankita Dudani, G-10 currency strategist at RBS.

Absence of firm G20 pact sends dollar lower
LONDON, Oct 25 (Reuters) - Investors ploughed a familiar furrow of selling dollars and buying emerging shares, concluding a Group of 20 meeting that produced lots of noise but no firm policy initiatives had left market trends unchanged.
"By demanding "market determined exchange rates" (at the G20) the U.S is opening the floodgates for a further dollar depreciation due to the ultra-expansionary monetary policy in the U.S," Commerzbank said.

20101023 0845 Soy Oil & Palm Oil Related News.

Corn dips on profit-taking, weather woes support wheat
SINGAPORE, Oct 26 (Reuters) - U.S. corn futures slipped as investors booked profit after a 1.6 percent gain in the previous session, while wheat ticked higher as poor rains in U.S. winter crop areas supported the market.
"There is certainly unease at the growing strength of La Nina," said Garry Booth, a trader at MF Global Australia. 

CBOT soyoil surged to its highest level in more than two years on strong demand and a weak dollar. The dollar supported commodities across the board, and the soy complex had additional support from strong exports, analysts said. They said spillover strength from crude oil and world demand for vegoils has supported soyoil. Dec soyoil ended up 1.17 cents, or 2.4%, to 49.47 cents per pound, and Dec soymeal closed up $3.70 to $334.60 per short ton. (Source : CME)

Dry Weather Causes Delays In Brazil Soy Planting - Consultancy (Source: CME)
Brazil's farmers have planted only 16% of the expected total soy area as of Oct. 22 due to a lack of rain in many key regions, local agricultural consultancy AgRural said. The area planted with soybeans in Brazil, the world's No. 2 soy producer after the U.S., compares to 21% at the same time last year and 7% the week before, AgRural said in a report. Farmers in Mato Grosso, the country's No. 1 soy-growing state, have planted only 19% of their soy area compared to 50% a year earlier, AgRural said. Although farmers in Mato Grosso are typically the first to begin planting in Brazil, they have been forced this season to postpone seeding in many regions due to the La Nina phenomenon that caused drier-than-usual weather.
Nonetheless, Mato Grosso's farmers managed to progress last week from 5% of their soybeans planted as of Oct. 15, as rain in many parts of the state softened the brittle soil and allowed seeding. Farmers in Parana, Brazil's No. 2 soy-producing state, have seen more favorable rainfall. Farmers had planted 35% of the Parana soy area as of Oct. 22, versus 20% in the prior week and 18% a year earlier, the consultancy said.

U.S. corn jumps 2 pct on weak dollar, soy up 1.7 pct
SINGAPORE, Oct 25 (Reuters) - U.S. corn futures rose more than 2 percent, edging closer to a two-year high reached earlier this month as a weakening dollar supported commodities amid prospects of strong global demand for the grain.
A "very strong start this morning which you can point to one single factor, the U.S. dollar," said Luke Mathews, a commodity strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

Hit more than 2-year highs on weaker dollar
KUALA LUMPUR, Oct 25 (Reuters) - Vegetable oil markets jumped to two-year highs as the dollar fell broadly after a Group of 20 meeting and on concerns over delayed output in main soy producing areas.
"Malaysian market sentiment is positive as investors are expecting lower stocks in November and December and looking forward to China's demand ahead of winter and New Year," said a trader in Kuala Lumpur.

Malaysia's Oct 1-25 palm oil exports up 1 pct-SGS
KUALA LUMPUR, Oct 25 (Reuters) - Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for Oct. 1-25 rose 1 percent to 1,091,158 tonnes from 1,080,597 tonnes shipped from Sept. 1-25, cargo surveyor Societe Generale de Surveillance said on Monday.

Brazil's new soy crop seen at record - Agroconsult
SAO PAULO, Oct 22 (Reuters) - Brazil's 2010/11 soy crop, with its No. 1 soy-growing state close to a month behind in planting with no clear sign of spring rains, should beat last year's record output, analysts Agroconsult said on Friday.
The new crop is expected to total a record 69.6 million tonnes, up from a revised 69.0 million tonnes last season.

Dry Brazil keeps China buying US soybeans
SAO PAULO, Brazil, Oct 22 (Reuters) - Belated rains over Brazil's soy belt may not mean a smaller harvest but a delayed one is almost assured, which will force buyers such as China to rely on U.S. Gulf soybeans into April.
In fact, China is already locking in U.S. exports for early next year, in case Brazil's crop is delayed getting to port by weather or the country's famously inefficient infrastructure and unpredictable labor situation.

Green palm oil output must rise 5-fold by 2015-AAK
LONDON, Oct 22 (Reuters) - Production of sustainable certified palm oil needs to increase about fivefold in the next five years, to meet buyers' commitments, the British unit of Swedish oils manufacturer AAK  said on Friday.
The Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO), an industry body of consumers, green groups and plantation companies, was formed in 2004 and aims to promote growth and use of sustainable oil palm products.

Monday, October 25, 2010

20101025 1821 FCPO EOD Daily Chart Study.

FCPO closed : 3060, changed : +55 points, volume : higher.
Bollinger band reading : upside biased.
MACD Histrogram : resumed higher, buyer market.
Support : 3070, 3050, 3020 level.
Resistant : 3100, 3150, 3200 level.
Comment :
15 years low US Dollar triggered most commodities to rally breaking higher price including soy oil and crude oil lead FCPO to opened gap up and surged higher breaking 3 levels of resistant level closed recorded huge gain. Daily chart wise, Boliinger band continue to expand outward with today daily wide body doji bar candle ended near upper Bollinger band level. Reading wise, market still trading upside biased but nevertheless market may need to have some correction as price already extended about 180 points since last Wednesday.
When to buy : buy at support and weakness with quick cut loss and profit target.
When to sell : sell at resistant or strength with quick cut loss and profit target.

20101025 1719 FKLI EOD Daily Chart Study.

FKLI closed : 1494.5, changed : +4 points,  volume : higher.
Bollinger band reading : correction range bound upside biased.
MACD Histrogram : turned upward, buyer defending.
Support : 1485, 1470, 1458 level.
Resistant : 1500, 1530, 1550 level.
Comment :
4.5 points range market FKLI ended higher in better but relatively low volume transactions after traded range bound the entire day as market seems lack of catalyst for move plus awaits US Fed chairman tonight Ben Bernanke statement on the housing issue. Daily chart formed a small body doji bar candle with traded side way range bound for the third day without any clear direction hovering near the upper part of the Bollinger band. Reading wise, uptrend still remained intact with a near term correction range bound upside biased development testing support and resistant to determined the underlying strength of the market.
When to buy : buy at support or weakness with quick cut loss and profit target.
When to sell : sell at resistant or strength with quick cut loss and profit target.

20101025 1005 Local & Global Economics News.

Malaysia: Inflation slows, reducing pressure for rate increase
Malaysia’s inflation rate fell to a three-month low in September, reducing pressure on policy makers to raise interest rates at their next meeting. Consumer prices rose 1.8% from a year earlier after gaining 2.1% in August, the Putrajaya, Malaysia-based statistics department said. That compares with the median forecast for a 2.1% gain in a Bloomberg News survey of 14 economists. (Bloomberg)

Japan: BOJ said to consider buying lower-rated company debt
The Bank of Japan may buy lower- rated corporate debt as part of its latest program to help companies borrow cash and support the economy, three people with direct knowledge of the discussions said. The BOJ will likely consider purchasing BBB-rated corporate bonds and a-2 commercial paper at a policy meeting on October. The purchases would come under a JPY5trn (USD61bn) program unveiled by the bank on 5 Oct that includes government bonds, exchange-traded funds and real-estate investment trusts. (Bloomberg)

China: G-20 to avoid ‘competitive devaluation,’ prod China
Group of 20 finance ministers and central bankers vowed to avoid weakening currencies to lift exports, leaving leaders to flesh out new ways of prodding fellow member China to allow faster gains in the yuan. Officials ended talks in South Korea pledging to refrain from “competitive devaluation” and to let markets set foreign-exchange values more as they sought to calm fears that they risk a trade war by using cheaper currencies to spur growth. They called for more sustainable current-account gaps without embracing a US proposal for targets, an initiative aimed at making a yuan advance more palatable to China. (Bloomberg)

UK: Growth pace probably slowed to 0.4% in third quarter
UK economic growth slowed in the third quarter to a third of the pace in the previous three months as consumer spending faltered, a survey of economists showed. The economy expanded 0.4% in the period, down from 1.2% growth in the second quarter, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of 35 economists. (Bloomberg)

US: Growth probably sped up on spending gain
The economy in the US probably grew at a faster pace in the third quarter, reflecting a pick-up in consumer spending that bodes well for the recovery’s staying power, economists projected a report this week will show. GDP rose at a 2% annual pace, up from a 1.7% rate in the previous three months, according to the median estimate of 67 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News before 29th Oct Commerce Department report. Other data may show business investment remains a mainstay of the economic rebound, while housing is mired in a slump. (Bloomberg)

US: Deflation disappears with bond market showing no double dip
The bond market is showing Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke will succeed in sparking inflation after the smallest gain in core consumer prices in half a century increased concerns that the economy will deflate. Expectations for rising consumer prices have increased faster in the US than any other bond market this month as central bankers made the case for monetary easing through additional asset purchases. Yields on 30-year Treasuries climbed as much as half a percentage point since September to 2.61% points more than similar maturity inflation-indexed debt, the widest gap since May and an indication for anticipated gains in consumer prices. (Bloomberg)