Wednesday, August 8, 2012

20120808 1619 FCPO EOD Daily Chart Study.

FCPO closed : 2864, changed : -43 points, volume : higher.
Bollinger band reading : downside biased.
MACD Histogram : resume falling, seller taking exposure.
Support : 2880, 2840, 2800, 2770 level.
Resistance : 2900, 2920, 2950, 2970 level.
Comment :
FCPO closed lower with improving volume traded. Soy oil currently recording marginal loss after overnight loss while crude oil price currently retreating lower after overnight surge.
U.S. Midwest rains, higher Brazil soybean crop and today bearish Reuters survey result send crude palm oil lower breaking previous 2880 support level.
Daily chart reading continue to suggesting a downside biased market development with previous 2880 support broken turned into resistance level possibly testing 2840 support level.
When to buy : buy at support or weakness with quick cut loss and profit target.
When to sell : sell at resistant or strength with moderate cut loss and profit target.

20120808 1759 FKLI EOD Daily Chart Study.

FKLI closed : 1635 changed : -5 points, volume : lower.
Bollinger band reading : correction range bound little upside biased.
MACD Histogram : turned downward, buyer seller battling.
Support : 1630, 1623, 1615, 1600 level.
Resistance : 1640, 1650, 1660, 1670 level.
Comment :
FKLI closed recorded loss with slower volume changed hand doing about 1 point discount compare to cash market that closed recorded gain. Overnight U.S. markets continue to closed higher and today Asia markets ended mostly higher while European markets currently trading lower.
Asia markets traded mostly higher on speculation bets that Central Banks will provide further easing while Europe region's markets trader weaker on missed estimates corporate earning results.
Technical chart study still suggesting a correction range bound little upside biased market development.
When to buy : buy at support or weakness with quick cut loss and profit target.
When to sell : sell at resistance or strength with quick cut loss and profit target.

20120808 1730 Regional Markets EOD Daily Chart Study.

 DJIA chart reading : upside biased.
 Hang Seng chart reading : upside biased.
KLCI chart reading :  side way range bound.

20120808 1652 Global Markets @ Commodities Related News.

GLOBAL MARKETS: Asian shares extended gains to a third straight session, reaching a three-month high, as investors continued to bet that policymakers will soon take decisive action to address the euro zone fiscal crisis and declining global growth. European stocks were seen opening lower, pausing after a sharp two-week rally, but the declines could be limited by comments by a top Federal Reserve that are fuelling expectations of a third round of quantitative easing to boost the fragile U.S. economy. U.S. stocks rose for a third straight day on Tuesday, pushing the S&P above 1,400 for the first time since early May, on growing optimism the European Central Bank would act soon to contain the euro zone's debt crisis.

FOREX: The euro held steady against the dollar, supported by persistent hopes for further action by the European Central Bank to lower the borrowing costs of Spain and Italy.

FOREX-Euro steady, supported by hopes of ECB action
The euro held steady against the dollar, supported by persistent hopes for further action by the European Central Bank to lower the borrowing costs of Spain and Italy.    
"Two-year yields have jumped in recent days. I think as long as U.S. yields move higher then of course dollar/yen will be under upward pressure," said Mitul Kotecha, head of global foreign exchange strategy for Credit Agricole in Hong Kong.
Still, the impetus for a further rise in Treasury yields and dollar/yen may be lacking over the next few days, when U.S. economic data releases will be relatively light, he said.
"For bond yields to move higher you need to see some credible signs of U.S. recovery...But the lack of data in the coming days suggests it's not going to happen," Kotecha added.

Fed should buy as many bonds as necessary - Rosengren
A top Federal Reserve official said on Tuesday the Federal Reserve should launch another bond-buying program of whatever size and duration is necessary to get the economy back on its feet, signaling support from some U.S. policymakers for aggressive steps to boost the flagging recovery.

U.S. consumer credit posts tepid growth in June
U.S. consumer credit posted its weakest growth in eight months in June as Americans reduced credit card debt, a potentially negative sign for an economy that has struggled to create jobs.

PREVIEW-China commodities imports seen weakening further in July
SHANGHAI/HONG KONG, Aug 8 (Reuters) - China's imports crude oil, copper, coal and iron ore are expected to drop for the second consecutive month in July as a stuttering economy and high stockpiles keep buyers at bay.
China is the world's biggest consumer of commodities, and last month saw global iron ore prices tumbling 13 percent and thermal coal prices hitting a 30-month low, declines that would normally have encouraged restocking.

Dwindling U.S. crops add to global inflation challenge
The U.S. government is expected this week to slash another 15 percent off its estimate of this year's drought-decimated corn crop, likely adding to growing angst in nations like China and India that are fighting to tamp down inflation.

GRAINS: U.S. soybeans firmed, rebounding after two consecutive session of losses as traders locked in profit after further rains were forecast for the U.S. Midwest, aiding the quality of new crops.

OIL: Brent crude dipped coming off a 12-week top hit in the previous session, although worries about falling North Sea output and hopes for more stimulus measures from both sides of the Atlantic kept prices above $111 per barrel.

Euro Coal-Prices rally to $95/T, highest since April
LONDON, Aug 7 (Reuters) - Physical European prompt coal prices rallied by $1.00 a tonne on Tuesday to $95, the highest level since April 19, boosted by Colombian force majeures, utilities and traders said.
South African FOB prices rose more steeply by $4 to around $92, the highest since late June, but no fresh trades were reported.

China nominates full contract amount of Iran oil in Aug -sources
BEIJING, Aug 7 (Reuters) - China, Iran's top oil customer and trading partner, has nominated full contract volumes of Iranian crude for loading this month, steady with July, trade sources said, after imports from the Middle Eastern country hit an ll-month high in June.
China is expected to load just over 16 million barrels of Iranian oil in August, the second month that it is using the vessels of National Iranian Tanker Co. (NITC) to deliver oil to its ports to get around a European Union insurance ban.

EIA trims U.S. natural gas production, consumption growth outlook
The U.S. Energy Information Administration on Tuesday slightly trimmed its estimate for domestic natural gas production growth in 2012, but still expects output this year to be up 3.8 percent from 2011's record levels.

Miners face cold reception from lenders at key Australian meet
Small mining and exploration companies are facing a less-than-receptive contingent of lenders and financiers at an annual gathering in the Australian outback designed to bring the two sides together.

COLUMN-Indonesia tries to control the tin price (again)
--- Andy Home is a Reuters columnist. The opinions expressed are his own---
LONDON, Aug 7 (Reuters) - Indonesia's largest tin producer PT Timah  is limiting spot sales of the soldering metal in response to a price  that is currently floundering around one-year lows.
And if you're experiencing a certain sense of déjà vu with that statement, that's perfectly understandable because it did the same almost a year ago, the last time benchmark London Metal Exchange (LME) prices lurched down to the $17,000 per tonne level.

Chinese banks sue more than 20 steel traders for loan defaults
SHANGHAI, Aug 7 (Reuters) - Chinese banks are suing more than 20 small and medium-sized steel traders based in Shanghai for defaulting on their loans, in the latest sign that the sector is buckling under slumping prices and poor demand.
China Construction Bank  , China Minsheng Banking Corp  , Bank of Communications Co Ltd  and China Everbright Bank  are among the banks that have taken their debtors to court as they sought to recover the millions owed, according to court documents.

Iron Ore-Shanghai rebar falls for 4th day in 6, ore near 2012 low
SINGAPORE, Aug 8 (Reuters) - China's steel futures slipped for a fourth day in six, dogged by sluggish demand that is keeping pressure on spot prices of raw material iron ore, with both commodities likely to see more weakness before any recovery begins.
Down more than 16 percent this year, iron ore is wallowing near its cheapest in 2-1/2 years as Chinese steel mills, the world's biggest buyers of iron ore, limit spot purchases until steel prices rebound significantly.

Chile July copper export revenue falls to $3.281 bln
SANTIAGO, Aug 7 (Reuters) - Chile's copper export revenue  totaled $3.281 billion in July, down compared to $3.827 billion in June, the central bank reported on Tuesday. In July 2011, copper export revenue totaled $3.394 billion.

BASE METALS: London copper slipped after a three-day rally that pushed prices to a one-week high the session before, although hopes of more action to combat Europe's debt crisis continued to buttress the outlook for metal demand.

PRECIOUS METALS: Gold was little changed, after advancing for three straight days on hopes that central banks in Europe and the United States will launch more stimulus measures to help shore up their faltering economies.

METALS-LME copper slips from 1-week high but euro zone hopes support
London copper slipped after a three-day rally that pushed prices to a one-week high the session before, although hopes of more action to combat Europe's debt crisis continued to buttress the outlook for metal demand.
"People are feeling that the U.S. is starting to recover, we're hearing positive talk out of the ECB about long term debt financing, and if they can convince people it's the right action then we'll see some support coming in for commodities," said Jonathan Barratt, chief executive of BarrattBulletin, a Sydney-based commodity research firm.

PRECIOUS-Gold steady, stimulus hopes support
Gold was little changed after climbing for three days, supported by hopes that Europe and the United States would launch more stimulus measures to help shore up their faltering economies.
"Gold is still looking promising in the second half, with the peak physical consumption season on the horizon and more quantitative easing from the U.S. Fed still on the cards," said Li Ning, an analyst at Shanghai CIFCO Futures.

Baltic index falls on sliding panamax rates
Aug 7 (Reuters) - The Baltic Exchange's main sea freight index, used to track rates for ships carrying dry commodities, fell on Tuesday for the 21st straight day, on falling panamax rates.
The main index, which factors in the average daily earnings of capesize, panamax, supramax and handysize dry bulk transport vessels, dropped 7 points or 0.83 percent to 836 points.

Asia Tankers-Rates to hover near 2012 lows on ample supplies
SINGAPORE, Aug 7 (Reuters) - Rates for dirty tankers on key Asian freight routes are expected to hover near this year's lows, pressured by the abundant supply of vessels competing for limited Middle East crude cargoes, ship brokers said on Tuesday.
Rates on the benchmark very large crude carrier (VLCC) export route from the Middle East to Japan held steady at W34.34 on Monday, unchanged from a week ago. Rates have struggled to rebound since hitting this year's low of W33.58 on July 19.

20120808 1122 Global Markets & Commodities Related News.

GLOBAL MARKETS-Shares hit 3-mth high as policy optimism persists
TOKYO, Aug 8 (Reuters) - Asian shares rose to a three-month high on Wednesday, supported by expectations that policymakers will soon decisively address the euro zone fiscal crisis and declining global growth.
"Despite the lack of fundamental improvement, equities continue to grind higher, driven in recent sessions by cyclical sectors and small caps, which had lagged the recovery back toward the April 2012 highs," Barclays Capital analysts said in a research note.

COMMODITIES-Oil jumps on Brent supply woes; grains down on rain forecast
NEW YORK, Aug 7 (Reuters) - Oil hit 12-week highs on Tuesday on falling output, pressure on the Federal Reserve to roll out a new stimulus and Middle East tensions, while grains prices fell a second day after weather forecasters called for rain in the parched U.S. Midwest.
Supply worries aside, oil and other commodities, such as copper, also got a boost from Boston Federal Reserve President Eric Rosengren remarks that he was in favor of the Fed buying more Treasury and mortgage-backed securities until the U.S. economy got back on its feet.

OIL-Oil at 12-wk high on N.Sea output drop, stimulus hope
 NEW YORK, Aug 7 (Reuters) - Oil prices jumped to a 12-week peak on Tuesday as falling North Sea output, support for more bond buying by the U.S. Federal Reserve and Middle East tensions lifted crude futures to a third straight higher settlement.
"The news about the record low North Sea loadings got Brent going early and it has lifted everything else," said John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital LLC in New York.

NATURAL GAS-U.S. natural gas futures end up for second day
NEW YORK, Aug 7 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures ended higher on Tuesday for a second straight day, backed by buying ahead of Thursday's weekly inventory report and slightly warmer revisions to extended weather forecasts.
"I think we moved up today ahead of the (EIA) storage number, which should be low relative to the five-year average, and weather still looks supportive from a power generation perspective," said Eric Bickel, analyst at Summit Energy.

EURO COAL-Prices rally to $95/T, highest since April
LONDON, Aug 7 (Reuters) - Physical European prompt coal prices rallied by $1.00 a tonne on Tuesday to $95, the highest level since April 19, boosted by Colombian force majeures, utilities and traders said.
"They'll be back at work within days and there is far too much coal around, everywhere," one European trader said.

20120808 1038 Local & Global Economy Related News.

Bank Negara Malaysia's (BNM)  international reserves amounted to RM429.6bn (US$134.5bn) as at 31 Jul 2012, up slightly from RM429.4bn (US$134.4bn) as at 13 Jul 2012. The reserves position was sufficient to finance 9.5 months of retained imports and was 4.3 times the short-term external debt. (BNM)

The  UN's Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) revised down its global rice forecast for 2012 by 7.8m tonnes to 724.5m tonnes due to low monsoon rainfall in India, but said world output should still be greater than in 2011. (AFP)

US job openings climbed by 105,000 to 3.76m, the most since Jul 2008, from a revised 3.66m the prior month, the Labor Department said. (Bloomberg)

US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said new regulatory structures such as the Dodd-Frank Act and the Basel accords are important in helping to  prevent another crisis because they give regulators a more holistic view of the financial system. (Bloomberg)

US consumer credit rose by a seasonally adjusted US$6.46bn to US$2.577tr in Jun (a revised US$16.7bn gain in May), undershooting economists’ forecasts for a US$10bn expansion. (WSJ)

The US ICSC-Goldman Store Sales index rose 1.4% yoy in the 4 Aug week (1.8% in the prior week), whilst on a wow basis, the gauge experienced no change (-1.7% in the earlier week). (Bloomberg)

Japanese Finance Minister Jun Azumi said the government will extend its dollar credit facility aimed at helping companies invest overseas by six months as part of its efforts to cope with a strong yen. (Reuters)

Sales at South Korean department and discount stores run by the country's top three chain operators in Jul fell 0.9% yoy following a 2.0% decline in Jun, the Ministry of Strategy and Finance said. (Reuters)

Foreign investors are cutting their holdings in India’s state-controlled companies to a three-year low as Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s government sacrifices shareholder return to revive the weakest economy in nine years. (Bloomberg)

Fitch Ratings has cut the  outlook  for India's vast retail sector from stable to negative, saying consumer spending was at its weakest in seven years.(AFP)

Overseas funds pared  stakes in the 40 biggest state-owned firms in India to an average 7.31% at the end of Jun, the lowest level since Mar 2009. (Bloomberg)

Singapore’s foreign reserves  rose to US$244.14bn in Jul from US$243.38 in Jun. (Bloomberg)

Indonesia’s foreign reserves  inched up to US$106.56bn in Jul from US$106.5 in Jun. (Bloomberg)

Vietnam’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development plans to modify the rules governing the purchasing of rice for temporary reserve to boost farmers' profits. (Vietnam News)

The  State Bank of Viet Nam has asked the Government to allow foreign investors to buy more  shares in commercial banks,  according to  acting Chief Inspector of the State Bank of Viet Nam Nguyen Huu Nghia. (Vietnam News)

Standard & Poor's revised its outlook on Greece's long-term rating to "negative", reflecting the potential for a downgrade if Greece fails to secure the next disbursement from the EU/IMF financing program. It affirmed its "CCC" foreign and "C" local currency credit ratings on Greece. (Reuters)

Australia's central bank kept its main cash rate at 3.5% for a second month, saying it was too soon to gauge the full impact of past cuts while noting early signs the stimulus was working.  (Reuters)

20120808 1037 Malaysia Corporate Related News.

Kossan Rubber Industries Bhd will prioritise upstream expansion into rubber plantations to manage the risk of fluctuating latex prices. Kossan said it is looking for 10k ha of greenfield land to plant rubber either in Indonesia or Myanmar. This follows in the footsteps of Top Glove Corp Bhd which in Jul 2012 acquired 30k ha of greenfield rubber plantation land in Indonesia. (Financial Daily)

The Plantation Industries and Commodities Ministry has stressed that the temporary increase in duty-free crude palm oil (CPO) export quota is in the best interest of all stakeholders. They include from upstream (growers, millers and smallholders) to the downstream (refiners, processors, traders and exporters). Plantation Industries and Commodities Minister Tan Sri Bernard Dompok reiterated that the increase is an interim measure to manage stocks and ensure remunerative prices for the producers."The government is mindful that palm oil has many stakeholders. This move is the best way for everybody," said Dompok.Palm Oil Refiners Association of Malaysia said the increase in CPO quota does not address their concern on the competitiveness of the downstream sector, contributed by the Indonesian export tax structure On another note, Dompok said nothing has materialised between Malaysia and Indonesia on talks to work out a common policy on export tariffs of the edible oil. (BT)

India is considering imposing a tax on sugar exports and dropping a 10% import duty to help curb overseas sales and keep a lid on domestic prices as a drought threatens farm output, government sources said. The government also plans to release an extra 500,000 tonnes of sugar in August to beef up supplies in the local market. India is the world's top sugar consumer and biggest producer behind Brazil. (Reuters)

Wilmar International Ltd is building two large wheat flour mills in Indonesia, a company executive said, as the firm looks to tap into rising demand for noodles, bread and convenience foods in Asia's top wheat importer. Wilmar's Indonesian unit, PT Wilmar Nabati Indonesia, is building two wheat flour projects in Gresik in east Java with a joint capacity of  1m tonnes per year, said Hendri Saksti, the subsidiary's head of operations."Indonesia's installed capacity is already quite high at 7.7m tonnes. I think Wilmar's move to set up new mills is to do with expectations of growth in consumption," said one Sydney-based industry analyst. (Reuters)

Pelaburan Hartanah Bhd (PHB) has shelved all proposals from several companies to develop a prime 8ha site on Jalan Bangsar in Kuala Lumpur, its chief said. It has received proposals from companies like  Mah Sing Group Bhd, Malaysian Resources Corp Bhd (MRCB), SP Setia Bhd, UEM Land Holdings Bhd and Land & General Bhd.BT reported recently that MRCB had emerged as the front-runner to secure the land development job, which is estimated to generate more than RM5bn in gross development value. However, PHB’s MD Datuk Kamalul Arifin Othman said it is not in discussion with any parties currently. “We are just waiting for approval from the City Hall for the masterplan that we submitted to them early this year. “Once the masterplan has been approved, we will decide on what to do next,” Kamalul told BT via a telephone interview recently. PHB may award the contract to develop the land to one party or parcel it out to several property developers. It may also take a stake in the project through a joint venture, Kamalul said.(BT)

Asia is  AirAsia’s next frontier but it first needs a bigger foothold in all the Asean markets to give it the size it needs to take on bigger players and positions itself in India and China. And while AirAsia group CEO  Tan Sri Tony Fernandes said that growing organically was preferable, “if the opportunity arises for mergers and acquisitions, then we will do it.” AirAsia has also not given up hope to enter the Vietnam market. (Star Biz)

Packet One Networks is focusing on its new  high-speed broadband (HSBB) solutions designed specially for the business market to drive growth in an economically-challenging year. It will launch "Fibre for Business" next week, a HSBB product that supports digital image and audio transmission, at very low cost for business users. "This solution saves between 30% and 50% compared with similar packages in the market," said P1 CEO Michael Lai. (Starbiz)

UMW Holdings expects full-year profit to increase as auto sales climb and its oil and gas business rebounds from two years of losses. The company’s oil and gas business would be profitable this year as its drilling rigs and the trading of oilfield products and services contributed to revenue. (Star Biz)

Malaysia's Padini Holdings Bhd and Singapore's FJ Benjamin Group have inked a 10-year-deal for the latter to distribute Vincci women's shoes and accessories in Indonesia. Padini managing director Yong Pang Chaun said the first store under the master franchise agreement will be opened in Jakarta by year-end. The rest of the 25 stores will be gradually up by the time the agreement reaches its fifth year. "This is a very good business partnership as we are known for developing good products while FJ Benjamin is noted for their good marketing strategy," he said. (BT)

Eng Teknologi Holdings Bhd’s subsidiaries in Thailand have, in relation to the floods in Ayutthaya last year, received RM17m claims from insurance companies. The RM17m is partial payment towards their claim for inventory, property, plant and machineries damage, said Eng Teknologi. (BT)

Subur Tiasa Holdings Bhd has entered into a joint venture (JV) with Sarawak's Ministry of Land Development to work on some 12,037 ha of land in Kabah, Sarawak. The JV will boost Subur Tiasa's plantation division which currently has 13,000ha, which 6,000ha planted. Subur Tiasa said the JV land will be developed into an oil palm estate completed with facilities and ancillaries such as palm oil mills. Subur Tiasa will hold 60% of equity in the JV. (Financial Daily)

Shareholders of financially-troubled  Mithril Bhd has paved the way for a reverse takeover (RTO) by a white knight, Persona Metro Sdn Bhd (PMSB), a construction outfit. At a court-convened meeting that was followed by an EGM that took almost two hours yesterday, shareholders voted in favour of Mithril's restructuring scheme, which would see its listing status transferred to a new company, Persona Metro Holdings Bhd (PMHB).

Mithril chairman Tunku Yahaya Yahya Tunku Abdullah said upon the completion of the restructuring exercise, the company would be de-listed, expected to be by Oct. (BT)

F&N gets higher offer for 7.3% stake in Asia Pacific Breweries
The battle for Asia Pacific Breweries (APB) took a new twist with an unsolicited bid at SGD55 per share from Kindest Place Groups Ltd for F&N’s direct 18.75m shares, a 7.3% stake. KPG is owned by Chotiphat Bijananda, the son-in-law of Thai billionaire Charoen Sirivadhanabhakdi. The new offer is 10% above the SGD50 per share offer from Heineken NV for F&N’s 40% stake in APB. (Malaysian Reserve)

June passenger traffic up 2.7%, says MAHB
Malaysia Airports Holdings’ (MAHB) passenger volume grew by 2.7% in June 2012 compared with the same month last year. MAHB said international passenger movements at KLIA rose by 4% to 2.34m and at the domestic level, grew by 1.3% to 1.04m. (Financial Daily)

Hartalega earnings down 3% on derivative losses
Hartalega Holdings’ net profit for its 1Q ended June fell 3% from a year ago. The synthetic rubber or nitrile glove manufacturer registered higher operating expenses and recognized higher losses from its derivative instruments. (Financial Daily) Please see accompanying report.

Gas M’sia posts lower profit
Gas Malaysia’s pre-tax profit for the second quarter ended June fell to RM54.12m from RM81.99m recorded in the same quarter of last year. However, revenue rose to RM524.31m from RM487.18m previously. The increase in natural gas and liquefied petroleum gas revenue was mainly due to a 2% higher volume of gas sold and an upward revision in natural gas tariff. (StarBiz)

20120808 1028 Global Market Related News.

Asian Stocks Rise on Central Banking Easing Speculation (Source:Bloomberg)
Asian stocks rose a third day, with the regional benchmark set to extend a three-month high, on speculation central banks from the U.S. to China will take steps to boost growth and after companies including Chimei Innolux Corp. beat estimates. Kobe Steel Ltd. and Iluka Resources Ltd. rose at least 4 percent ahead of a report tomorrow expected to show China’s inflation slowed for a fourth month, giving authorities room to ease policy in the world’s biggest commodities consumer. Chimei Innolux gained 7 percent in Taiwan after the display maker reported a smaller loss than analysts expected. Standard Chartered Plc (2888) dropped 0.7 percent after plunging yesterday as a U.S. regulator said the lender may face a suspension of business activities for dealings with Iran.
“There’s expectations that global easing policies may help stem the economic slowdown,” said Hiroichi Nishi, an equities manager in Tokyo at SMBC Nikko Securities Inc. “The recovery in U.S. business conditions will bring benefits for the Asian economy. Investors are becoming less likely to avoid risky assets because of strong expectations Europe will overcome the crisis.” The MSCI Asia Pacific Index (MXAP) gained 0.8 percent to 120.49 as of 10:39 a.m. in Tokyo, headed for the highest close since May 8. Eight stocks rose for each that fell. The gauge gained 9.7 percent from this year’s lowest level in June through yesterday as the Europe eased conditions on Spain’s banking bailout and global central banks relaxed monetary policy.

Most Chinese Stocks Decline on Earnings Concern; Citic Advances (Source:Bloomberg)
Most Chinese stocks fell as speculation concern earnings growth will slow overshadowed speculation central banks will take steps to boost the global economy. Western Mining Co. (601168), China’s fourth-largest maker of zinc concentrate, dropped 0.8 percent after first-half profit slumped 78 percent from a year earlier. Citic Securities Co. climbed 1 percent, leading gains among brokerages after the Securities Times reported that funding for margin trading will be expanded. Seven stocks declined for every two that rose in the Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP), which added less than 0.1 percent to 2,158.63 as of 9:45 a.m. local time. China’s statistics bureau is due to release July economic data including industrial production and inflation tomorrow.
“Investors have high expectations that the government will do something to support the market such as a cut in the reserve requirement ratio or suspension of new share sales,” said Wang Weijun, a strategist at Zheshang Securities Co. in Shanghai. “Tomorrow’s data would probably show economic growth has stabilized but hasn’t picked up yet.” Speculation global central banks will take steps to boost economic growth mounted after Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Eric Rosengren said yesterday the institution should pursue an “open-ended” easing program of “substantial magnitude.” German Chancellor Angela Merkel on Aug. 6 backed European Central Bank President Mario Draghi’s bond-buying plan.

U.S. Stocks Rise on Policy Bets as Earnings Top Estimates (Source:Bloomberg)
U.S. stocks advanced, sending the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index higher for a third straight day, amid better-than-estimated corporate earnings and speculation global central banks will take steps to boost economic growth. JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Morgan Stanley (MS) rallied at least 1.9 percent to pace gains among financial companies in the S&P 500. Chesapeake Energy Corp., the second-largest U.S. natural- gas producer, increased 9.4 percent after reporting the highest quarterly profit in the company’s history. Fossil Inc. (FOSL) surged 31 percent after forecasting earnings that exceeded analysts’ projections amid increasing sales of its Skagen brand. About two stocks rose for each that fell on U.S. exchanges at 4 p.m. New York time. The S&P 500 (SPX) added 0.5 percent to 1,401.35. It gained 2.7 percent in three days.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 51.09 points, or 0.4 percent, to 13,168.60. Volume for exchange-listed stocks in the U.S. was 6.4 billion shares, or about in line with the three-month ave rage. “The fear of things collapsing is going away,” said Tom Wirth, who helps manage $1.6 billion as senior investment officer for Chemung Canal Trust Co., in Elmira, New York. “The recession, which everyone was concerned about a month ago, is not going to happen. There’s a perception that the ECB is willing to buy bonds if needed.”

European Stocks Rise as Companies Beat Earnings Forecasts (Source:Bloomberg)
European stocks advanced for a third day as gains by companies that reported better-than-expected earnings offset falls by Standard Chartered Plc and Nestle (NESN) SA. Xstrata Plc (XTA) climbed 1.6 percent and Danske Bank A/S (DANSKE) added 6.7 percent after they reported earnings that beat estimates. Standard Chartered tumbled the most in almost 24 years after a U.S. regulator said the lender faces suspension of business activities because of transactions with Iranian banks. Nestle fell 1 percent. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose 0.8 percent to 268.80 at the close of trading. The gauge extended a four-month high yesterday, as Greece and its creditors agreed to strengthen efforts to meet bailout conditions and support economic growth. The measure has climbed 14 percent since June 1 as policy makers eased repayment terms for Spanish banks and optimism grew that central banks will announce stimulus measures.
“Expectations for European (SXXP) equities did get low,” Ben Lofthouse, a fund manager at Henderson Global Investors in London, said in a Bloomberg television interview. “We’ve seen a defensive rally. These companies are doing well. Their results are proving that they are doing OK.”

Recap Stock Index Market Report (Source:CME)
The September S&P 500 trended higher throughout the session and broke out to its highest level since May 1st. It seemed that growing prospects that the ECB was closer to a bond buying program, and that the Fed might pursue more asset purchases provided the early lift. The corporate earnings front was also positive this morning, and that contributed to the risk-on tone. Shares of Fossil were up by more than 30% after posting better than expected earnings and raising their full year outlook. Chesapeake Energy was up by more than 9.0% on the session after reporting a record quarterly profit and from plans to raise a more than expected amount of capital from asset sales. Most of the major S&P sectors were in positive territory, led by gains in energy and material-related shares. The market will get the latest earnings after the close from Walt Disney and

Recap Interest Rate Market Report (Source:CME)
US Treasury markets traded sharply lower throughout the session, pressured by growing prospects that the ECB could be closer to a round of bond buying. Global equity markets rallied and the US dollar sold off, which further helped to tamp down safety demand for Treasuries. Comments from the Fed official Rosengren earlier this morning talking in favor of more asset purchases by the Central Bank might have limited earlier losses. This afternoon's $32.0 billion 3-Year Note auction drew a slightly higher yield of 0.37%, with an average bid to cover ratio. Prices across the Treasury curve sold off into new low ground for the session shortly thereafter. Some traders suggested that the market was likely to face a negative headwind ahead of tomorrow's $24.0 billion 10-Year Note and $16.0 billion 30-Year Bond auction on Thursday.

Most Emerging Stocks Rise After Germany Backs ECB Plan (Source:Bloomberg)
Most emerging-market stocks rose as speculation central banks in the U.S., Europe and China will boost efforts to lift growth outweighed concern that a global slump will damp earnings. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index (MXEF) was little changed at 967.85 in New York as 393 stocks advanced and 373 declined. Gauges in India, Russia and China rose and China Rongsheng Heavy Industries Group Holdings Ltd. (1101), the country’s biggest shipbuilder outside state control, surged the most in nine months in Hong Kong. Brazil’s Bovespa stock index fell for the first time in three days, led by steelmaker Usinas Siderurgicas de Minas Gerais SA and homebuilder Rossi Residencial SA.
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Eric Rosengren said on CNBC that the central bank should pursue an “open- ended” easing program of “substantial magnitude” to boost growth and hiring. German Chancellor Angela Merkel backed a bond-buying plan announced last week by the ECB, a spokesman said yesterday. Earnings announcements by companies in the developing-nations gauge so far this quarter have surpassed analyst estimates by an average 20 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Treasuries Snap Loss After Bernanke Notes ‘Struggle’ (Source:Bloomberg)
Treasuries ended a three-day loss after Standard & Poor’s cut its outlook on Greece’s debt rating to negative, spurring demand for the refuge of U.S. securities. Pacific Investment Management Co.’s Mohamed El-Erian said investors who took advantage of a rally in risk markets should reduce exposure in favor of safer assets. The Treasury Department is scheduled to sell $24 billion of 10-year notes today and $16 billion of 30-year bonds tomorrow. It auctioned $32 billion of three-year debt yesterday. Benchmark 10-year yields were little changed at 1.62 percent as of 10:12 a.m. in Tokyo, according to Bloomberg Bond Trader prices. The price of the 1.75 percent security due in May 2022 was 101 6/32. Yields have climbed from the record low of 1.38 percent set July 25.
“This is a good time to buy,” following the increase in rates, said Hajime Nagata, who helps oversee the equivalent of $131.1 billion as an investor in Tokyo at Diam Co., a unit of Dai-Ichi Life Insurance Co., Japan’s second-biggest life insurer. “The problem isn’t solved in Europe. The U.S. economy is not doing well.” S&P cut its outlook on Greece’s debt to negative from stable, which means it is more inclined to reduce its ranking for the nation. The government may fail to make the budget cuts required to receive its next aid payment from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund, the rating company said yesterday in a statement. Greece is ranked CCC by S&P, or eight levels below investment grade.

FOREX-Euro pulls back from 1-mth high; Aussie edges higher
SINGAPORE, Aug 7 (Reuters) - The euro dipped versus the dollar and pulled back from a one-month high, but remained supported by expectations that the European Central Bank will take action soon to lower borrowing costs for Spain and Italy.
"I think the risk or the bias here is perhaps a bit more short squeeze in the euro to the upside," said Sim Moh Siong, FX strategist for Bank of Singapore, referring to the possibility of the euro getting a lift if traders with short positions in the single currency unwind their bearish bets.

Yen Remains Weaker as Yield Gap Widens, Stocks Advance (Source:Bloomberg)
The yen remained weaker against the dollar as the extra yield for two-year U.S. Treasuries over Japan’s government notes widened to the most in almost one month, dimming the appeal of the Asian nation’s debt. Nine of 22 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News said Japan’s central bank may scrap the yield floor on its purchases of longer-term debt as early as tomorrow. The euro fell against most of its major peers before data forecast to show industrial production in Germany, Europe’s biggest economy, dropped in June. Standard & Poor’s revised the outlook on Greece’s sovereign rating to negative from stable and placed Banco Popular Espanol S.A.’s BB+ on creditwatch with negative implications. “The dollar-yen is becoming responsive to yield differentials,” said Marito Ueda, senior managing director in Tokyo at FX Prime Corp. (8711), a currency-margin company. “The euro will fall as economic fundamentals remain weak and there is little the ECB can do,” referring to the European Central Bank. The yen traded at 78.55 per dollar as of 10:07 a.m. in Tokyo from 78.61 at the close in New York, when it fell 0.5 percent. The Japanese currency was little changed at 97.32 per euro from 97.46 yesterday, when it touched 97.82, the weakest since July 12. The 17-nation currency slid 0.1 percent to $1.2390.

Job Openings in U.S. Rose in June to Four-Year High: Economy (Source:Bloomberg)
Job openings in the U.S. rose in June to the highest level in four years, indicating employment gains may accelerate in the second half of the year. The number of positions waiting to be filled climbed by 105,000 to 3.76 million, the most since July 2008, from a revised 3.66 million the prior month, the Labor Department said today in Washington. Hiring and firings cooled. A rising need for workers shows some employers are expanding as sales improve, laying the ground for a pickup in hiring that may help boost consumer spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of the economy. Payrolls rose more than forecast in July even as the unemployment rate climbed to a five-month high, the Labor Department reported last week.
“The economy is still growing, that’s underpinning labor demand,” said Henry Mo, a senior economist at Credit Suisse in New York. “Job availability is increasing, but we still need to see employers put this into action. The economy will grow a little better in the second half than in the first half and the labor market will improve gradually.”

Consumer Credit in U.S. Increased Less Than Forecast in June (Source:Bloomberg)
Consumer borrowing in the U.S. rose less than forecast in June, restrained by the second decline in credit-card debt in the last three months. The $6.5 billion increase was the smallest since October and followed a revised $16.7 billion gain in May that was less than initially estimated, Federal Reserve figures showed today in Washington. Economists projected a $10.3 billion rise, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey. Revolving credit, which includes credit card spending, dropped by $3.7 billion. Non-revolving loans, such as those for college tuition or auto purchases, climbed $10.2 billion. Americans may have been trying to obtain school loans before a possible interest rate increase took place on July 1. President Barack Obama has since signed into law a one-year extension that maintains the lower rate. The strongest auto sales in four months in June showed some households took advantage of cheaper borrowing costs.
“If the consumer is willing to borrow, they feel good about future income prospects,” said Jonathan Basile, an economist at Credit Suisse in New York. “In the last few months, we’ve seen some unevenness in revolving credit, which fits with the weakness we saw in retail sales and the downtick in consumer spending.”

Fed’s Rosengren Urges ‘Open-Ended’ Easing Program (Source:Bloomberg)
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Eric Rosengren said the central bank should pursue an “open-ended” quantitative easing program of “substantial magnitude” to boost growth and hiring amid a global slowdown. The Fed should set its guidance based on the economic outcomes it seeks and focus on buying more mortgage-backed securities, Rosengren said today in a CNBC interview. Without new stimulus, the jobless rate would rise to 8.4 percent at the end of this year and economic growth wouldn’t exceed its 1.75 percent average in the first half of the year, he said. “What I would argue for actually is to have it open-ended, that we focus on economic outcomes,” Rosengren said. “It would be setting a quantity that you’re going to continue to buy until you get the economic outcomes that you want.”
Additional accommodation is necessary because unemployment remains at the same 8.3 percent level it was in January even after the central bank has purchased $2.3 trillion in bonds and held its main interest rate near zero since December 2008, Rosengren said. The Boston Fed chief doesn’t have a vote on the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee this year.

Electricity Use Seen Overstating China Economic Slowdown (Source:Bloomberg)
A stagnation in electricity output that fanned speculation China’s slowdown is intensifying may instead be evidence of an accelerated transition to a more services-based economy. The government will release information on July electricity production tomorrow as part of its report on industrial output. Power generation in June was unchanged from a year earlier even as industrial production rose 9.5 percent. Heavy industries including metals and cement consume about 60 percent of electricity and account for 20 percent of gross domestic product, according to GK Dragonomics, a Beijing-based consultant. The shifts signal that electricity’s relevance as an economic indicator is receding five years after Li Keqiang, now the vice premier, was quoted as saying he watched data on power, rail cargo and loans because GDP numbers were “man-made.” An evolution within manufacturing to more efficient production is also damping electricity use as China upgrades its factories.
“Steel plants, cement plants and refinery facilities -- these big electricity consumers -- have suffered a lot more than service-industry players in the first half,” said Dong Tao, Credit Suisse Group AG’s Hong Kong-based head of Asia economics excluding Japan. “So electricity consumption is not a benchmark but a reference.”

Won Weakening to Samsung’s Kim as Rate Cut to Aid Growth (Source:Bloomberg)
South Korea will probably cut interest rates once more this year and let the won weaken to keep pace with policy makers seeking to shore up economic growth, according to the nation’s largest asset manager. “The growth challenge for Korea is in front of us,” Kim Jun Sung, chief investment officer for equities at Samsung Asset Management Co., which oversees about $100 billion, said in an interview in Seoul yesterday. “There is a lot more room for flexibility” for a weaker won, he said. The Bank of Korea, which unexpectedly cut benchmark borrowing costs on July 12, is likely to make another reduction before December presidential elections to help support indebted households, Kim said. Policy makers need to allow the won, which has gained 1.5 percent against the dollar this quarter, to weaken in the “short term” as Asian nations let currencies fall to stay competitive, he said. South Korea depends on exports for about half of gross domestic product.
Samsung Asset favors South Korean companies that are global and taking market share such as Samsung Electronics Co. (005930) and Hyundai Motor Co. (005380), Kim said. The nation’s benchmark Kospi index has fallen 6.5 percent from its April 3 high, compared with an 8.1 percent drop in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, as exports slid almost 9 percent in July from a year ago and the central bank forecast economic growth will slow to 3 percent this year from the previous projection of 3.5 percent.

South Korea to Weigh Second Straight Cut Against Signaling Panic (Source:Bloomberg)
The Bank of Korea is set to consider cutting rates for a second straight month, weighing the need to prop up a deteriorating economy against the risk of signaling panic to markets. Ten of 16 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News predict Governor Kim Choong Soo will keep the seven-day repurchase rate at 3 percent tomorrow. The rest expect a quarter percentage point cut to 2.75 percent, which would be the first consecutive reduction in more than three years. The BOK faces increasing pressure to act after exports fell the most since 2009 on Europe’s debt turmoil and inflation eased to a 12-year low. While Kim said last month that the economy is losing steam faster than expected, policy makers may wait to see more data before cutting rates again, according to economist Wai Ho Leong.
“Dropping rates back-to-back after a long period of holding rates might convey an undesired sense of panic in the market,” said Leong, a senior regional economist at Barclays Plc in Singapore. Policy makers may “prefer to deliver easing in a more calibrated fashion, conditional on data releases,” Leong said. Indonesia also decides monetary policy tomorrow and will probably keep interest rates unchanged for a sixth month, according to 25 of 26 economists in a Bloomberg survey. The Bank of Japan (8301) may refrain from adding monetary stimulus for a fourth time, according to all 22 economists polled. The State Bank of Pakistan is scheduled to decide on borrowing costs on Aug. 10. “For Asia as a whole, we won’t see rampant rate cuts,” said Sanjay Mathur, Singapore-based head of research and strategy for non-Japan Asia at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc. “The economic environment is not dire enough to say we need to cut rates aggressively.”

Italy Economy Shrinks for a Fourth Quarter as Slump Deepens (Source:Bloomberg)
Italy’s economy contracted for a fourth straight quarter in the three months through June as manufacturing slumped and the euro-area debt crisis intensified. Gross domestic product declined 0.7 percent in the second quarter, Rome-based national statistics institute Istat said in a preliminary report today. The contraction was less than the median forecast for a 0.8 percent decline in a survey of 22 economists by Bloomberg News. GDP fell 2.5 percent from a year earlier, the most since the final quarter of 2009. Prime Minister Mario Monti’s government is implementing 20 billion euros ($25 billion) in austerity measures that have curtailed consumer spending and prompted Italy’s largest manufacturer, Fiat SpA (F), to curb investment. Industrial output declined more than forecast in June, Istat said in a separate release today as Monti’s policies contributed to deepening the country’s fourth recession since 2001.
“We believe Italy faces another two quarters of negative GDP growth this year,” said Catherine Colebrook, euro-area inflation economist at BNP Paribas SA, in a research note. The industrial output decline “suggests that Italy’s economy still has some way to go before it moves back into growth territory.”

U.K. June Production Data May Lead to Upward Revision to GDP (Source:Bloomberg)
U.K. industrial output fell less than estimated in June, indicating the recession may not have been as deep in the second quarter as previously reported. Production dropped 2.5 percent from May due to the extra public holiday for the queen’s Jubilee, the Office for National Statistics said today in London. That’s smaller than the drop estimated in the second-quarter gross-domestic-product data, and the ONS said today’s numbers may mean a 0.07 percentage point upward revision to the 0.7 percent GDP decline. Britain’s recession has worsened as the government’s austerity program and the euro-area debt crisis undermined confidence and curbed demand. The Bank of England, which maintained its current stimulus program last week, will probably cut its U.K. economic outlook when it publishes new forecasts tomorrow, according to a survey of economists.
“Any upward GDP revisions could provide a modest boost to sentiment and would be welcome news for the government,” London-based HSBC Holdings Plc economists John Zhu and Simon Wells wrote in a note to clients today. “However, even if these upward revisions do happen, the news for policymakers may not be huge, and the U.K. would still be stagnating.”

German Factory Orders Fall Twice as Much as Forecast (Source:Bloomberg)
German factory orders declined more than twice as much as economists forecast in June as sales to euro-area countries slumped. Orders, adjusted for seasonal swings and inflation, dropped 1.7 percent from May, when they rose 0.7 percent, the Economy Ministry in Berlin said today. Economists forecast a 0.8 percent decline, according to the median of 35 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. From a year earlier, orders fell 7.8 percent when adjusted for work days. Today’s report is the latest to show Europe’s largest economy is cooling as the sovereign debt crisis erodes demand for its goods, hurting earnings at companies including Bayerische Motoren Werke AG (BMW), Daimler AG and Siemens AG. While the Bundesbank last month estimated moderate growth in the second quarter, aided by domestic spending, the manufacturing industry is contracting and business confidence fell for a third straight month in July.
“All in all, quite a gloomy report,” said Annalisa Piazza, an economist at Newedge Strategy in London. “Exports are badly hit by the current cyclical slowdown and the export- led German industrial sector is not going to be spared from the slump in trade activity.”

20120808 1028 Global Commodities Related News.

Grain Farmers Tap Viterra as Wheat Board Monopoly Ends (Source:Bloomberg)
The first thing grain farmer Kent Erickson does at 6 a.m. before irrigating his 2,000 acres of wheat is check his BlackBerry for the latest grain prices from buyers like Viterra Inc. (VT) With the end of the Canadian Wheat Board’s 70-year-old monopoly last week, he can price, market and sell his crops for the first time. “Now that we have that ability as farmers, we’re able to make those decisions on our own,” Erickson, 31, said by phone from his 4,700-acre farm in Irma, Alberta, about 200 kilometers (124 miles) from Edmonton. “That’s going to give us more profit but it’s going to cause more chance for a loss too.”
For the country’s 75,000 grain farmers, the end of the monopoly means for the first time they have options to shop their wheat to the highest bidder as a global drought bolsters prices. For companies such as Glencore International Plc (GLEN), which bought Regina, Saskatchewan-based Viterra Inc. for C$6.1 billion ($6.12 billion) in March, it means tapping into an export market worth C$5.7 billion last year, the third-largest in the world. From 1935, the wheat board was the only game in town, the sole body sanctioned to buy and sell grain for export from Canada, the third-largest shipper of wheat after the U.S. and the European Union. As the biggest wheat marketer worldwide, it sold grain to more than 70 countries, generating C$6.07 billion in sales in 2011 that was passed directly on to farmers.

Pro Farmer: After the Bell Wheat Recap(Source:CME)
Wheat futures favored a weaker tone in choppy trade for much of the day, but Kansas City ended steady to 2 cents higher. Chicago futures ended 3 to 5 3/4 cents lower, with Minneapolis mixed. Much of today's weakness came on spillover from the corn market, which was lower on concerns about demand destruction. But losses were limited by ongoing global crop concerns.

Wheat Market Recap Report(Source:CME)
September Wheat finished down 4 1/4 at 889, 15 1/2 off the high and 5 1/2 up from the low. December Wheat closed down 3 1/2 at 902 3/4. This was 5 3/4 up from the low and 15 off the high. September Chicago wheat traded slightly lower into the closing bell with KC and Minneapolis following lower. The weaker trade is linked to a lower corn market and profit taking before meetings are held in Russia tomorrow to discuss their domestic grain supply. Traders remain concerned over the extreme heat that has caused steep declines in Black Sea wheat production and the impact it will have on the global balance sheet. Wheat areas in France will see drier weather to finish out this week as they move through harvest. Above normal rainfall has trimmed yield for some areas and wheat quality continues to be a concern. Global wheat supply remains a concern as demand increases due to the growing feed wheat usage. A drier than normal forecast for southwestern Australia is supportive to the wheat market but the country still has time to make up moisture deficits before the crop enters key growth stages. The US Dollar traded slightly lower midday and crude oil was higher, adding slight support to the commodity complex. September Oats closed down 3 1/4 at 370 1/4. This was 1 1/4 up from the low and 4 1/2 off the high.

Pro Farmer: After the Bell Corn Recap (Source:CME)
Corn futures reversed early gains when pit trading opened and ultimately ended low-range with 1- to 7-cent losses through the September 2013 contract. Far-deferred months finished narrowly mixed. Corn futures were firmer in early trade, but this gave way to light profit-taking which dominated market action into the close. Encouraging this was positioning for Friday's Crop Production Report.

Corn Market Recap for 8/7/2012 (Source:CME)
September Corn finished down 6 1/2 at 796 1/2, 10 3/4 off the high and 4 1/4 up from the low. December Corn closed down 4 1/2 at 800 1/2. This was 5 1/2 up from the low and 9 1/2 off the high. December corn traded slightly lower into the close and settled near the 800 level. The new crop contract continues to consolidate ahead of this Friday's USDA report. The trade believes the average US corn yield is near 127 bushels per acre with total production just over 11 billion bushels. A closely followed crop scout revised his US yield lower to 125 bushels per acre and moved production below 11 billion bushels. Warm and dry weather in Ukraine continues to add stress to their corn crop which could mean revisions to Ukrainian corn production soon. Argentina is getting ready to start corn planting at the end of August and planted acreage is expected to fall 20% from 2011/12 to 3.1 million hectares. Poor cash flow for farmers and a switch to planting more soybeans were reasons for the decline in planted acreage. The US Dollar traded slightly lower today and crude oil was higher, adding support to the commodity complex. September Rice finished down 0.205 at 15.745, 0.21 off the high and equal to the low.

GRAINS-Soybeans inch up after weather losses on Monday
SYDNEY, Aug 7 (Reuters) - U.S. soybeans edged higher after losing almost 3 percent in the previous session as rain over some key growing regions of the U.S. Midwest eased concerns of further damage to new-crop supplies."It could be simply a recovery from last night," Luke Matthews, commodities strategist at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia said, referring to the soybean gains. "We are also approaching the U.S. Department of Agriculture's monthly supply and demand report, and the market is going to be a bit jumpy in the lead up to that."

Shrinking U.S. crops pose inflation challenge for countries
CHICAGO, Aug 7 (Reuters) - For nations like China and India fighting to tamp down inflation while spurring growth, even as the global economy faces headwinds from Europe's debt crisis, shrinking U.S. crops could be an additional headache as food prices creep higher.
Add to that, dry weather in eastern Europe dimming crop prospects in key grains exporting countries like Russia and Kazakhstan, and a less-than-stellar monsoon in India, the troubles for policy makers could escalate into major challenges.

Russia may not ban or tariff grain exports-SovEcon
MOSCOW, Aug 7 (Reuters) - Russia is not expected to ban grain exports or to introduce an export tariff despite weak prospects of 2012 wheat harvest, which could be equal to a 2010 level, Russia's SovEcon consultancy said.
"The government's ability to regulate its domestic market by restricting exports seems to be limited," SovEcon said in a note.

Russia AgMin sees wheat output at 45 mln t-source
MOSCOW, Aug 6 - Russia is expected to harvest 45 million tonnes of wheat in 2012, down from last year's 56 million tonnes, a source from the country's Agriculture Ministry told Reuters on Monday.
"It is the best estimate," the source said. The current range of estimates for the overall 2012/13 harvest officially stands at 75-80 million tonnes.

SOFTS-Sugar dips to near 5-week low, cocoa firms
LONDON, Aug 7 (Reuters) - Raw sugar futures on ICE eased to stand near a five-week low, weighed by harvest pressure in top producer Brazil, while coffee edged up in technically driven dealings in light volumes. Cocoa futures on ICE firmed, consolidating after investor selling on Monday to take profits from a rally to a 4-1/2-month high last week driven by concerns over dry weather in top growing region West Africa.
Chinese sugar importers resell cargoes as supply glut bites
SINGAPORE, Aug 7 (Reuters) - Chinese traders are reselling sugar cargoes on the international market as a better-than-expected domestic crop and the end of a government buying programme cut the need for imports of the sweetener, industry sources said on Tuesday.
China is the world's second-largest sugar consumer after India and the reselling of cargoes is likely to weigh on benchmark London sugar prices, which have fallen nearly 9 percent from a peak in July to a five-week low this month amid expectations of a global supply surplus.

Vietnam Coffee-Aug loading down, output at record
HANOI, Aug 7 (Reuters) - Vietnam, the world's largest producer of robusta coffee, is forecast to export between 70,000 and 100,000 tonnes, or 1.17 million to 1.67 million bags, of beans in August, down from the 110,000 tonnes loaded last month, traders said on Tuesday.
Falling supply from Vietnam two months before the new coffee crop year starts in October could help keep global prices stable despite favourable weather for harvesting in Brazil.

Brazil to harvest entire cane crop this season - Cosan CEO
SAO PAULO, Aug 6 (Reuters) - Brazil's center-south sugar cane mills should not have to leave any of the 2012/2013 crop in the fields for processing next season, the head of the country's largest sugar exporter Cosan said on Monday.
Cane mills in Brazil's main sugar-producing region kicked into high gear in early July after rains receded, calming fears that unseasonably wet weather in May and June would result in part of the crop left stranded in the field.

Brazil's Cooxupe to halt new coffee exports until Sept
SAO PAULO, Aug 6 (Reuters) - Brazil's Cooxupe, the world's largest coffee co-operative, said on Monday that it would halt new spot export business until September, when the current harvest is over and it has a better sense of the supply of top-quality arabica beans.
Top-quality arabica beans would only make up about 56 percent of Brazil's total 2012/13 arabica crop due to untimely rains during the harvest period, down from 80 percent in past crops, said Joaquim Libânio Ferreira Leite, Cooxupe's head of sales.

Sugar Stockpile in India at Four-Year High Seen Helping Exports (Source:Bloomberg)
The biggest sugar stockpile in India in four years is set to help the world’s top consumer avert a ban on exports as a drought threatens to cut output and stokes a rally in domestic prices. Inventories may jump to as much as 7 million metric tons by Oct. 1, the most since 2009, as exports slow because of higher domestic prices, said Vinay Kumar, managing director of the National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories Ltd. Shipments may total 3.5 million tons this crop season, less than the 4 million tons estimated earlier, said Abinash Verma, director general of the Indian Sugar Mills Association. Exports for a third straight year from India, also the world’s second-biggest producer, may add to a global surplus and extend the 21 percent decline in futures in New York in the past year. Supplies will top usage by 5.5 million tons in the 2012- 2013 season that starts in October in most countries, according to Morgan Stanley, which remains bearish on prices.
“There will be surplus available for exports next year as stocks are going to be comfortable and production will not fall below 25 million tons,” said Kiran Wadhwana, director at New Delhi-based broker Comdex India Ltd., who’s traded sugar for 25 years. “Exports will depend on global prices and the rupee- dollar exchange rate.” Raw sugar for October delivery fell 1.9 percent to 21.42 cents a pound on ICE Futures U.S. yesterday. Futures gained 7.8 percent in July.

Coal to Drop as Steel Output Slows in BHP Setback: Commodities (Source:Bloomberg)
Coal used to make steel is set to drop to the lowest price in two years, eroding earnings at BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP) and Rio Tinto Group (RIO), as European demand wanes and China shifts supply contracts to Mongolia from Australia. The contract price may drop 11 percent to $200 a metric ton in the three months to Dec. 31 from $225 a ton this quarter, according to seven analysts and industry officials in a Bloomberg survey. The spot price in China fell 24 percent to $179.50 as of Aug. 2, the lowest this year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. A deepening debt crisis in the eurozone has dragged down demand and prices of commodities, forcing the world’s largest steelmaker ArcelorMittal (MT) to shutter or idle plants in the region. Slowing economic growth in China, the second-biggest importer of metallurgical coal, has increased chances of output cuts at mills and further shrinkage in demand for the fuel.
“Steel demand in Europe is very weak and consumption has slowed dramatically in recent months,” said Tim Cahill, an analyst at J&E Davy Holdings Ltd. in Dublin. “It’ll get worse in the second half as government spending slows and banks stop lending to home buyers. Unless the U.S., Europe, China pump in serious stimulus, global steel demand will remain subdued.” The EU produced 14.73 million tons of steel in June, the lowest output for that month since 2009.

OIL-Oil up on supply concerns, economic growth hopes
LONDON, Aug 7 (Reuters) - Oil futures rose above $110 a barrel, on hopes that Europe would take further action to tackle its intractable debt crisis, while supply worries stemming from North Sea maintenance and Middle East tensions added further support.
"I do not think this strength is specific to Brent. Risk appetite is coming back to the market," said Eugen Weinberg at Commerzbank in Frankfurt.

Oil Drops From Two-Month High in New York as U.S. Demand Slides (Source:Bloomberg)
Oil slid from the highest close in more than two months as investors sold contracts on speculation that crude’s gain was excessive amid signs of weakening demand in the U.S, the world’s biggest consumer of the commodity. Futures fell as much as 0.5 percent, dropping for the first time in four days. Oil’s gains stalled near the upper Bollinger Band, an indicator of technical resistance. Crude consumption declined 4 percent to 15.9 million barrels last week, the biggest percentage decrease in a month, data from the American Petroleum Institute showed. Gasoline usage was the lowest since February, according to the API figures. Oil for September delivery decreased as much as 47 cents to $93.20 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange and was at $93.29 at 11:13 a.m. Sydney time. It climbed 1.6 percent yesterday to $93.67, the highest settlement since May 15. Prices are 5.6 percent lower this year.
Brent crude for September settlement fell 39 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $111.61 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The European benchmark’s premium to West Texas Intermediate was unchanged from $18.33 yesterday.

Gold Market Recap Report(Source:CME)
December gold was able to climb out to a new four day high during the morning hours but was unable to hold those gains into the close. Early support for the market came from a slight improvement in sentiment toward the situation in the Euro zone, as well as talk that the US Fed might be in a position to ease in their September meeting. In fact, dovish comments from the Fed's Rosengren this morning seemed to give the talk of September easing even more credence. Ongoing gains in equities, favorable currency market action and strength in energy and industrial metals prices offered support to the gold market. However, a measure of uncertainty over the next course from the Fed and light trading volumes seemed to weigh on prices by day's end.

Gold May Snap Three-Day Advance as Dollar Strength Damps Demand (Source:Bloomberg)
Gold may drop for the first time in four days as the metal’s advance to a one-week high encourages sales and as the dollar’s strength saps demand for bullion as an alternative investment. Silver declined. Spot gold lost as much as 0.2 percent to $1,609.40 an ounce, and was at $1,611.25 at 9:41 a.m. in Singapore. The metal climbed to $1,618.40 an ounce yesterday, the highest level since Aug. 1. The dollar rose 0.2 percent versus a six-currency basket including the euro, gaining for the first time in four days, before data that may show weakness in German industrial production. Bullion tends to move inversely to the greenback. “In the last few months, gold prices have slipped as investors have flocked to the traditional safe haven assets of U.S. treasuries and the U.S. dollar in lieu of gold as the European debt crisis has intensified,” Lachlan Shaw, an analyst at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, wrote in an e-mail today. “However, we believe the hopes of central bank stimulus will keep prices firm.”
December-delivery bullion was little changed at $1,614 an ounce on the Comex in New York. Exchange-traded product holdings were unchanged at 2,403.477 metric tons yesterday, the most since July 19, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

20120808 1027 Soy Oil & Palm Oil Related News.

Reuters Survey :
Malaysia Jul 2012 Crude Palm Oil
- Exports seen down 15% at 1.3 million tonnes from Jun 2012
- Stocks seen up 17.7% at 2 million tonnes from Jun 2012
- Output seen up 13% at 1.66 million tonnes from Jun 2012

Pro Farmer: After the Bell Soybean Recap (Source:CME)
Soybean futures posted double-digit losses in all but the front-month contract, which ended just slightly lower. But futures posted a low-range close across the board, with meal and soyoil seeing spillover pressure. Soybeans were firmer in early trade, but as the day progressed, selling intensified due to improved moisture chances for the Corn Belt.

Soybean Complex Market Recap(Source:CME)
August Soybeans finished down 2 1/4 at 1605 1/4, 22 1/4 off the high and 2 1/4 up from the low. November Soybeans closed down 18 1/2 at 1565 3/4. This was 3 3/4 up from the low and 39 3/4 off the high. August Soymeal closed down 5.9 at 512.3. This was 1.0 up from the low and 10.5 off the high. August Soybean Oil finished down 0.19 at 51.29, 0.71 off the high and 0.01 up from the low. Soybeans bounced midday but long liquidation was ultimately too much for bulls. November soybeans turned sharply lower near noon and ended the day near the session lows. Reports that China purchased 4 cargos of US Soybeans were pushed aside as profit taking was the featured trade today. A closely followed crop scout left his average US soybean yield unchanged at 38 bushels per acre citing relief from recent rainfall in the east. While last week's rainfall was beneficial to some areas of the Corn Belt, others remain dry. Temperatures are expected to moderate for most of this week but another round of 90-100 degree temperatures are expected next week for the central and southern Midwest. A chance of better rain for parts of the Corn Belt next week offered resistance. One market analyst suggests soybean stocks for major exporters in South America have fallen to 45.4 million tonnes, or a 22.5 million tonnes drop from a year earlier. This has raised questions as to if Brazil soybean crushers will need to import soybeans from neighboring countries to support their local livestock industry. The US Dollar traded slightly lower and crude oil was higher, adding slight support to the commodity complex midday.

VEGOILS-Palm oil falls to 1-week low, data eyed
SINGAPORE, Aug 7 (Reuters) - Malaysian crude palm oil touched its lowest in more than a week, as traders priced in wetter weather in the U.S. Midwest that eased concerns about further damage to new-crop oilseed supplies. "The market is exercising caution here ahead of MPOB and USDA data," said a dealer with a foreign commodities brokerage in Malaysia. "The crop rating was rather neutral despite some rains  reported over the weekend," he added, referring to the unchanged weekly soybean crop condition rated by the USDA.

India's July oilmeal exports down 2.6 pct yr/yr-trade body
MUMBAI, Aug 7 (Reuters) - India's oilmeal exports fell to 274,635 tonnes in July from 281,879 tonnes a year earlier led by a sharp drop in the overseas sales of rapeseed meal, a leading trade body said on Tuesday.
Soymeal exports, which make up the bulk of sales, rose to 168,341 tonnes in July, the fourth month of the current fiscal year, from 139,547 tonnes a year ago, the Solvent Extractors' Association of India said in a statement.

Brazil's new soybean crop seen up 17.8 pct-Celeres
SAO PAULO, Aug 6 (Reuters) - Brazil's new 2012/13 soybean crop, which begins planting in September, will produce a record 78.1 million tonnes, up 17.8 percent from last year's drought-parched harvest, local analyst Celeres said in its first forecast of the season.
Celeres said area dedicated to soybeans would grow by more than 8 percent to 27.14 million hectares from last season. If confirmed, that would be one of the biggest annual increases in planted area in almost a decade.

Soybean conditions stabilize on welcome Midwest rains
CHICAGO, Aug 6 (Reuters) - The condition of the U.S. soybean crop stabilized due to rain in some key growing areas during the past week, snapping a string of six straight weeks where the crop's health has deteriorated due to the severe drought in the Midwest, a government report showed.