Tuesday, February 8, 2011

20110208 1808 FCPO EOD Daily Chart Study.

FCPO closed : 3890, changed : +22 points, volume : higher.
Bollinger band reading : pullback correction range bound upside biased.
MACD Histrogram : getting higher, buyer taking small exposure.
Support : 3850, 3820, 3800 level.
Resistance : 3900, 3920, 3950 level.
Comment :
FCPO eased lower in earlier trade but managed to closed recorded small gain with better volume transacted as flood condition in producing states started to improve while soy oil traded higher after overnight lower soy oil price closing. Market opened gap down and tested near support level followed by news on market survey showing a 6 month low stock level pushed price to recovered to closed near the high of the day.
Daily chart formed an up bar candle with lower shadow positioned near upper Bollinger band level with the bandwidth turning outwards. Reading wise, market is having pullback correction range bound upside biased market development.
When to buy : buy at support or weakness with quick cut loss and profit target.
When to sell : sell at resistant or strength with quick cut loss and profit target.

20110208 1719 FKLI EOD Daily Chart Study.

FKLI closed : 1533 changed : +3 points,  volume : lower.
Bollinger band reading : correction range bound little downside biased.
MACD Histrogram : recovering, seller realising profit.
Support : 1530, 1515, 1500 level.
Resistance : 1540, 1550, 1565 level.
Comment :
FKLI closed recorded gain with lower volume changed hand doing 6.5 points discount compare to cash market while regional market closed mix and overnight U.S. market continue to trade firmer.
Daily chart formed a doji bar candle with positioned near middle Bollinger band resistance level with the bandwidth started to turned inwards suggesting a correction range bound little downside biased market development testing support and resistant level.
When to buy : buy at support or weakness with quick cut loss and profit target.
When to sell : sell at resistant or strength with quick cut loss and profit target.

FUTURES CORNER 祝大家 : 新年快樂, 恭喜发财, 年年有余 !

FUTURES CORNER 祝大家 : 新年快樂 恭喜发财 年年有余 !

20110208 0943 Global Economic Related News.

Indonesia: Economy grows at fastest pace in six years
Indonesia’s economy grew at the fastest annual pace in six years last quarter, adding to the case for the central bank to raise interest rates further as inflation accelerates. GDP increased 6.9% y-o-y in the three months through December, beating the 6.3% median estimate. The absence of a harvest led to a 1.4% economic contraction q-o-q. Private consumption contributed 2.7 ppt to GDP growth in 2010, while investment accounted for about 2 ppt. Consumer confidence rose in January m-o-m, with a central bank index climbing 4.6 points to 113.9, the highest level since August 2009. Consumer-price growth accelerated to 7.02% in January, from 6.96% in December. (Bloomberg)

India: Government predicts fastest economic growth since 2008
India’s government predicted the economy will expand 8.6% y-o-y in the year ending 31 March, the most in three years, supporting the central bank’s case for raising interest rates further after the steepest increases in Asia. Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on 25 Jan raised the key repurchase rate by 0.25% to a two-year high of 6.5% and boosted the nation’s inflation forecast. The central bank said India’s benchmark wholesale-price inflation rate may be at 7% by 31 March, more than the 5.5% earlier estimate. The gauge stood at 8.43% in December. RBI maintained their growth projection for the current financial year at 8.5% with an “upward bias.” (Bloomberg)

Australia: Retail sales rise less than forecast
Australian retail sales rose less than economists expected in December, sending the currency lower as consumers spent less at department stores and more on clothing and footwear. Sales advanced 0.2% over the period incorporating Christmas, after a revised 0.4% gain in November. That was less than the median forecast for a 0.5% increase. Spending on clothing and footwear climbed 2.7% and consumers spent 1.5% more on household goods. They spent 1.2% less at department stores. Retail sales, adjusted to remove inflation, fell 0.3% q-o-q in the three months through 31 Dec, matching estimates. (Bloomberg)

EU: German factory orders fell in December
German factory orders fell in December after jumping five times more than economists expected in the previous month. Orders, adjusted for seasonal swings and inflation, dropped 3.4% m-o-m after they surging 5.2% previously. Orders climbed 19.7% y-o-y, when adjusted for working days. Domestic factory orders fell 2.4% in December and foreign orders declined 4.2%, driven by an 8.9% slump in demand from outside the euro area. Orders for investment goods dropped 6.6% after November’s 8.8% gain. Orders for consumer goods eased 0.1% while sales of basic goods rose 0.6%. (Bloomberg)

US: Consumer credit increases for third month
US consumer borrowing rose in December for a third consecutive month, led by the first increase in credit-card charges in more than two years as holiday sales improved. Credit rose by USD6.1bn to USD2.41trn after increasing a revised USD2.02bn in November. Economists projected a USD2.4bn increase. Borrowing remains below the peak of USD2.58trn in July 2008. For all of 2010, credit contracted by 1,6% after falling 4.4% in 2009. Revolving debt rose USD2.32bn in December, the first gain since August 2008. Non-revolving debt rose USD3.78bn, the fifth consecutive increase. (Bloomberg) 

20110208 0941 Malaysia Corporate Related News.

Economy: Malaysia among top outsourcing destinations. According to the Press Trust of India (PTI), the top three slots in AT Kearney's 2011 Global Services Location Index (GSLI) are occupied by three Asian countries: India, China and Malaysia. The 3 countries have enjoyed the top 3 rankings since the inception of the GLSI in 2003, demonstrating "remarkable staying power, thanks to their deep talent pools and cost advantages". India remains the favourite back-office of the world thanks to its "first-mover advantage" and deep skill base, as per global management consulting firm AT Kearney's ranking of the best outsourcing destinations. (Source: Business Times)

Economy: Cuepacs appeals for minimum wage policy in civil service. Cuepacs is appealing to the government to implement a minimum wage policy in the civil service, which it believes is a crucial move to assist civil servants cope with the rising cost of living. Its president Datuk Omar Osman said the current salary of the workers in the support group was below the poverty line of RM720 a month. Those in Grade 1 to Grade 16 in the Support Group II are starting at RM647per month, which is below the poverty line. The basic salary should be at least RM850 or RM920 a month. (Source: Bernama)

PLUS’ associate company inks concession agreement in Gujarat, India
PLUS Expressway’s 26%-owned Indian associate company, Jetpur Smonath Tollways Ltd (JSTL), and the National Highway Authority of India, have signed a concession agreement (CA) for a 123km road project in Gujarat India. The CA requires JSTL to design, build, finance, operate and transfer a four-lane Jetpur-Somnath Section NH-8D road. JSTL is a joint-venture between PLUS and IDFC Projects Ltd. The concession is for a 30- year period while road construction works is for 30 months. (MalaysianReserve)

South Africa among new sources of coal supply for TNB
South Africa is among the sources of new coal supply for Tenaga Nasional (TNB) to ease the current shortage, following the floods in Queensland, Australia. Queensland has served as TNB’s traditional supply market. “The situation in Australia has affected us to a certain extent. Some of our suppliers in Australia cannot deliver the coal to us due to the flooding in Queensland,” said TNB president and CEO Datuk Seri Che Khalib Mohamad Noh. “What are we doing now is buying coal from all over the world, especially from South Africa,” he added. Che Khalid had earlier signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) on behalf of TNB with Reseau de Transport d’ Electricite of France on technology transfers. He also said is looking at the possibility of securing a bigger supply from Indonesia, adding that company officials would be going to the country to negotiate. (FinancialDaily)

Agro Asia offers to buy Premium Nutrient’s subsidiaries
Premium Nutrients yesterday received an offer from Agro Asia Pacific Ltd to buy three of its subsidiaries for a total of RM117.9m. The three companies represent its core business. Agro Asia is part of Goodhope Asia Holdings Ltd of Singapore, a holding company with business interests in the South and Southeast Asian region. Premium Nutrients said it will deliberate on the terms of the offer. (BT)

Wilmar to invest in Indonesia
Singapore’s Wilmar, the world’s largest listed palm oil firm, will invest USD900m or RM2,736m (USD1 = RM3.04) to build factories producing products from palm oil in Indonesia, an Indonesian government minister said on Monday. “Wilmar will build six factories of CPO end products such as soap and margarine. The company will start to build in the first quarter this year,” said Minister of Industry M.S Hidayat. (BT)

QSR buys more of Al-‘ Aqar REITs
QSR Brands has increased its interest Al-‘ Aqar KPJ REITs to 4.77m shares by acquiring an additional 2.82m units of the hospital REIT in July last year and on 31 Jan this year. The 4.77m shares cost QSR a total of RM5.11m. In its rationale for the purchase, QSR said it would have a return on investment (ROI) of about 7.3% as against the current fixed deposit interest rate of about 2.5% to 3%. (FinancialDaily)

Carrefour wins appeal
Carrefour Malaysia seems to have full control of its business here following the Court of Appeal's ruling to overturn an injunction granted to its Malaysian minority shareholder. The judgment enables Carrefour to execute the transfer of shares from its 30% Bumiputera partner Hartajaya Harmoni SB. Hartajaya, however, plans to appeal against the decision. Hartajaya had previously requested the High Court to grant an injunction on the transfer of shares, pending the decision of an oppression suit filed by it on 10 Nov last year. (BT)

Ireka secures RM27.6m Vietnam hospital deal
Ireka Corp’s wholly-owned subsidiary, Ireka Engineering and Construction Vietnam Co Ltd, has won a RM27.58m contract from Hoa Lam-Shangri-La Healthcare LLC for the structural works package at a general hospital in Ho Chi Minh City. This will bring Ireka’s current order book to about RM800m, of which about RM430m remains outstanding. (BT)

20110208 0917 Global Market Related News.

Oil edges down ahead of U.S. inventory data
SINGAPORE, Feb 8 (Reuters) - Oil prices edged down as transit through the Suez Canal remained unaffected by the political turmoil in Egypt, while expectations of a build-up in U.S. crude inventories also weighed.
"Fundamentally, I don't think crude oil supplies are tight. The market needs a correction, and now is the time," he said, adding that prices were up on the political tension in Egypt.  

US wheat, soybean rise; corn loses on profit-taking
SEOUL, Feb 8 (Reuters) - U.S. wheat prices rose slightly, extending previous session's gains on news the world's top buyer Egypt had returned to the market and expectations that the USDA would trim its estimate for wheat ending stocks.
"Views of many market participants who are waiting for USDA's supply-demand data on Wednesday are quite bullish about the market," said Kazuhiko Saito, chief commodities analyst at Fujitomi Co Ltd in Tokyo. 

Brazil soy crop views rise into record territory
SAO PAULO, Feb 7 (Reuters) - Forecasts of Brazil's new soybean crop that recently started early harvest are increasingly being pushed into record territory by analysts based on improving yields from good rains.
Analysts Celeres on Monday raised its view of the new 2010/11 crop to a record 69.8 million tonnes, up from 68.1 million forecast in January due to improving yields following regular and plentiful rains over the past few months.

Gold barely moves; strong equities cap upside
SINGAPORE, Feb 8 (Reuters) - Gold was barely changed, under pressure from a rally in global stock markets and improved prospects of economic recovery, but inflationary pressures blamed on rising commodity prices could underpin sentiment.
"The outflow in the ETF is a bit negative for gold. We have to see if money flowing into the stock market is temporary or not," said Ronald Leung, director of Lee Cheong Gold Dealers in Hong Kong. "But it seems $1,300 is a very good support."

US Gold upbeat on El Gallo project's initial study
TORONTO, Feb 7 (Reuters) - US Gold  said on Monday the results from the preliminary economic assessment of its El Gallo gold-silver project in Mexico were "highly encouraging."
The Toronto-listed exploration company, which is led by industry veteran Rob McEwen, said it plans to update the size of its resource at El Gallo and complete a feasibility study on the project before the end of this year.

Recovery hopes boost Japan stocks; euro steady
SINGAPORE, Feb 8 (Reuters) - Asian shares struggled for traction on Tuesday, despite gains on Wall Street, but Japan's Nikkei touched a 9-month high as hopes of a sustained economic recovery for the rich world encouraged investors to switch funds from emerging to developed markets.
"Retail investors, encouraged by foreigners who are moving into the Japanese market, are now aggressively adding peripheral stocks and those that posted strong earnings," said Mitsushige Akino, a fund manager at Ichiyoshi Investment Management. 

OIL: Crude oil steady as Egypt concerns ease
PERTH, Feb 8 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures were steady on Tuesday, as concerns that Egypt's political turmoil would affect oil flows in the region eased and U.S. oil inventories were seen increasing. 
Transits through the Suez Canal remained unaffected, although traders were closely watching developments in Egypt, with concerns still remaining that turmoil there might spread across the Middle East, traders said.

COMMODITIES: Mostly lower as fatigue sets into rally
NEW YORK, Feb 7 (Reuters) - Oil ended below $100 a barrel on Monday and metals and most agricultural markets settled off their highs too as investors awaited signs of fresh demand to extend the commodities rally.
"We may be getting to the point where there is a little bit too much fund enthusiasm," said Bill O'Neill, an advisor to investors in industrial and precious metals.

GLOBAL MARKETS: Recovery hopes boost Asia stocks; Oil steady
SINGAPORE, Feb 8 (Reuters) - Asian shares edged higher on Tuesday, with Japan's Nikkei hitting a nine-month peak on hopes of a sustained economic recovery for the developed world.
Oil was steady after sharp falls in the previous session, as concerns about unrest in Egypt affecting global supplies eased and investors turned their attention to rising U.S. inventories.

Korea's Lee Proposes Food-Crisis Task Force (Source: CME)
South Korean President Lee Myung-bak called for a task force to help secure a stable supply of food amid growing concerns about global shortages and rising prices. While Mr. Lee linked the need for action to possible food shortages triggered by climate change, his comments on Monday reflect concerns in South Korea over global food-price volatility, given that the country imports around 70% of its food. "Chances are growing that the whole world will suffer a food crisis due to climate changes," he said. "We need to be prepared and work out a strategy on agricultural and fishery products." The president also said the government and private sector should set up an organization to study ways to secure a stable supply of food.
Reflecting higher prices of agricultural and meat products, as well as surging global prices of oil and other commodities, South Korea's consumer prices rose 4.1% year-to-year in January, breaching 4% for the first time since October and topping the Bank of Korea's target band of between 2% and 4%. A bitterly cold winter in Korea has driven up prices of locally produced food, while a major outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease pushed up prices of pork and beef to records. With more than 100 confirmed cases since late November -- the worst outbreak in the country's history -- authorities have sought to control spread of the disease by killing almost three million of the nation's 10 million swine and nearly 150,000 of its three million cattle.
In response to surging pork prices, the government said late last month that it will remove a 25% tariff on imported pork until the end of June. It also unveiled a package of inflation-fighting measures on Jan. 13 that included a reduction in tariffs on food products such as imported milk powder and coffee beans. Across Asia, bad weather, more-affluent populations and underinvestment in agriculture have pushed up prices of products including wheat, rice and onions in India, chilies in Indonesia and water spinach in China. In response to the price pressures, India last month extended bans on the export of lentils and cooking oil. It also struck a deal with Pakistan to import 1,000 tons of onions, as prices have skyrocketed after severe floods.
China and several countries in the Middle East have instituted or strengthened price controls. Indonesia has been encouraging its citizens to plant chilies to boost supply. Inflation is now South Korea's top economic concern and many economists expect the central bank to increase borrowing costs at its rate-review meeting on Friday, following a surprise rate increase in January, in an effort to keep inflation under control. Young Sun Kwon, an economist at Nomura, said it is a close call but he expects an increase of 0.25 percentage point. "Higher inflation expectations are set to broadly feed into goods and services price changes, beyond the run-up in food and energy prices we have already seen," he said.
Reports suggest North Korea is also experiencing food-price surges, and in a rare report Monday the state news agency noted United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization data showing global foodstuff prices surged 3.4% to a record in the December-January period. The state-run Korean Central News Agency mostly sticks to verbal attacks on the South, the U.S. and Japan.

US payrolls barely grow, but jobless rate plummets
WASHINGTON, Feb 4 (Reuters) - The U.S. economy added a meager 36,000 jobs in January, far less than expected, as severe snow storms slammed large parts of the nation, but the unemployment rate fell to its lowest level since April 2009.
Despite the conflicting signals in the Labor Department's report on Friday, economists agreed a job market recovery was proceeding apace, if not gaining speed.

India on track to grow 8.6 pct this fiscal year
NEW DELHI, Feb 7 (Reuters) - India's economy is expected to grow at 8.6 percent in the fiscal year that ends in March, the government said on Monday, powered by expansion in the services sector and roughly in line with market forecasts.
Last week, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said high inflation was a serious risk to growth momentum, underscoring the worries of policymakers about headline inflation above 8.4 percent.

PRECIOUS-Gold holds near $1,350/oz after first weekly rise
LONDON, Feb 7 (Reuters) - Gold held near $1,350 an ounce in Europe on Monday after the metal's first weekly rise this year supported investor confidence in the metal and some Asian demand returned as the Lunar New Year holiday approached its end.
A more optimistic view of the global economic outlook, which is lifting demand for higher-risk, higher-yielding assets at gold's expense, is continuing to weigh on prices, however.

FOREX-Euro steadies on sovereign buys; dollar rally stalls
LONDON, Feb 7 (Reuters) - The euro steadied against the dollar on Monday, supported by Asian buying after the lunar new year holidays, which helped to counter the dollar-positive effects of Friday's fall in the U.S. unemployment rate.
A rise in January U.S. payrolls was much smaller than expected, but traders concluded the figure was affected by severe snowstorms and instead focused on a sharp drop in the jobless rate.The unemployment rate fell to 9.0 percent from 9.8 percent in November, marking its biggest two-month decline since 1958.

Wheat jumps 1.6 pct on strong demand, harsh U.S. weather
SINGAPORE, Feb 7 (Reuters) - Chicago wheat futures rose 1.6 percent as strong demand led by Egypt's purchase over the weekend and tenders from Iraq and Bangladesh buoyed the market amid concerns over sub-zero temperatures hurting the U.S. winter crop.
"Iraq has tendered for wheat and there is speculation in the market that Iraq will buy more wheat than what it has tendered. There is talk Turkey and Saudi Arabia will issue tenders soon."

Stocks near 29-month highs, copper hits record
LONDON, Feb 7 (Reuters) - World stocks rose hovering near a 29-month high on further signs of global economic recovery, and copper rallied to a record high while U.S. 10-year Treasury yields hit their highest in 10 months.
"At the moment, clients are feeling that any dips can be bought into and the trend is an upwards one, and I can't see that being thrown off course in the short term," said Giles Watts, head of equities at City Index in London.

20110208 0915 Soy Oil & Palm Oil Related News.

Food price boom puts palm oil on emerging markets' radar
JAKARTA/KUALA LUMPUR, Feb 4 (Reuters) - Palm oil output and stocks already lagging robust demand could come under further strain should the cooking ingredient become the next target for emerging markets seeking to dampen adverse effects of booming world food prices. 
As governments from India and Thailand to Egypt act to quell soaring food inflation and public anger, world cooking oil supplies look uncertain as the impact of dry weather and social unrest in the Argentine soy crushing sector lingers. 

Soy product futures ended lower, with soyoil futures leading the declines on spillover pressure from crude oil futures. Crude oil influences soyoil due to its use in making renewable fuels. Soymeal futures drifted lower, pulling back from earlier gains as traders took profit on prior gains in the absence of fresh supportive news, analysts said. CBOT March soyoil ended 0.57 cents or 1% lower at 58.41 cents per pound, and March soymeal traded $0.80 or 0.2% lower at $382.40 a short ton. (Source: CME)

Palm ends off 3-yr high on ringgit; weather concerns linger
KUALA LUMPUR, Feb 7 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil slipped from three-year highs hit earlier as traders booked some profits on the stronger ringgit, pausing a rally driven by erratic weather curbing output.
"Investors are uncertain about the weather condition, that's why prices went positive and minus. Some of them are liquidating their positions now, but there aren't lots of movements as many people still on (Lunar New Year) holiday," said a trader in Kuala Lumpur.

Malaysian palm deliveries set to pick up, rains still a concern
KUALA LUMPUR, Feb 7 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil exports are set to pick up this week as floods recede in a key producing region although heavy rains continue to pound other oil palm growing areas, raising the threat of weaker yields, planters and refiners said on Monday.
Last week, floods in the southern Malaysian state of Johor prevented estates from transporting up to 70,000 tonnes of crude palm oil for processing, which drove prices to a three-year high and triggering a scramble for Indonesian supplies.

India Jan oilmeal exports rise again, may fall in Feb
NEW DELHI, Feb 7 (Reuters) - India's oilmeal exports rose 67 percent in January from a year ago, the seventh straight monthly rise, on good demand from buyers in Japan, Vietnam, South Korea and the European Union, data from a leading trade body showed.
Oilmeal exports from India, Asia's leading supplier of the animal feed, were 15 percent lower month-on-month at 640,960 tonnes on a slowdown in soymeal exports, the Solvent Extractors' Association of India (SEA) said in a statement on Monday.

India 2011 rapeseed output may rise 16.1 pct-trade
NEW DELHI, Feb 5 (Reuters) - India's rapeseed output could jump 16.1 percent in 2011 to 6.85 million tonnes, helped by favourable weather conditions, a leading trade body said, which could mean lower imports of cooking oil by the world's top buyer.
Normal rains over growing areas raised areas under the main winter oilseed crop, and conducive weather conditions during the maturity also improved yields over a year ago, when the country was hit with the worst drought since 1972.

Argentine soy crops get a lift from rains - gov't
BUENOS AIRES, Feb 4 (Reuters) - Recent rains in Argentina's main soy-farming belt have lifted crops as they pass through key growth stages, though dry conditions are lingering elsewhere, the Agriculture Ministry said on Friday.
Heavier rainfall since mid-January has eased the impact of several months of dry weather linked to La Nina, but most crop analysts have lowered their forecasts for soy production to about 50 million tonnes.