Friday, February 17, 2012

20120217 1807 FCPO EOD Daily Chart Study.

FCPO closed : 3242, changed : +53 points, volume : higher.
Bollinger band reading : little upside biased.
MACD Histrogram : rising, buyer taking exposure.
Support : 3200, 3150, 3100, 3070 level.
Resistance : 3250, 3270, 3300, 3350 level.
Comment :
FCPO closed rallied higher with rising volume participation. Soy oil price currently trading higher after overnight closed declined lower while crude oil price continue to trade higher.
Weaker U.S. Dollar plus improved U.S. economy data and worry over South America bad weather will affect lower soy bean crop resulted most commodities to advance higher.
Chart study turned to suggesting a little upside biased market development.
When to buy : buy at support or weakness with quick cut loss and profit target.
When to sell : sell at resistant or strength with quick cut loss and profit target.

20120217 1726 FKLI EOD Daily Chart Study.

FKLI closed : 1560.5, changed : +13.5 points, volume : lower.
Bollinger band reading : upside biased.
MACD Histrogram : weakening, buyer taking profit.
Support : 1550, 1540, 1530, 1515 level.
Resistance : 1565, 1570, 1580, 1590 level.
Comment :
FKLI closed rallied higher parring all yesterday losses with thiner volume transacted doing about 3.5 points premium compare to cash market that also soar higher. Overnight U.S. markets closed recorded gains and today Asia markets ended in positive territory while European markets currency climbing higher.
Positive U.S. manufacturing and jobs data and speculation that Greece will reach bailout agreement with European leader lifted global markets higher.
Techinical chart reading revised to suggesting an upside biased market development.
When to buy : buy at support or weakness with quick cut loss and profit target.
When to sell : sell at resistance or strength with quick cut loss and profit target.

20120217 1709 Regional Markets EOD Daily Chart Study.

 DJIA chart reading :  upside biased.
 Hang Seng chart reading : upside biased with possible pullback correction.
KLCI chart reading :  pullback correction upside biased.

20120217 1552 Global Market & Commodities Related News.

Markets rise on Greece bailout hopes, solid U.S. data
TOKYO, Feb 17 (Reuters) - Asian shares rebounded  on signs euro zone officials will soon approve a long-awaited bailout for Greece, reducing the risk of a debt default, and after jobs and manufacturing data pointed to a healthier U.S. economy.
"Sentiment has brightened to encourage risk taking," said Masayuki Doshida, senior market analyst at Rakuten Securities.

FOREX-Yen retreats, hits 3-1/2 mth low vs dollar
SINGAPORE, Feb 17 (Reuters) - The dollar hit a 3-1/2 month high versus the yen on Friday as upbeat U.S. economic data added fuel to a rally in the greenback sparked by the Bank of Japan's monetary easing earlier in the week.
The dollar's rise gained steam on stop-loss buying, with   active bids from Japanese importers who have been caught off guard by its recent strenth, contributing to its firmness against the yen, traders said.

Corn, wheat rise for 2nd day on demand; soy firms
SINGAPORE, Feb 17 (Reuters) - Chicago corn rose for a second straight day, building on gains as strong U.S. weekly exports and hopes of a Greek bailout lifted the market.
"Plenty of positive U.S. economic data was released overnight and corn has been supported by a big U.S. corn export sales result," Luke Mathews, commodities strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia said in a report.

Workers at Brazil grain port stage short stoppages
BRASILIA, Feb 16 (Reuters) - Stevedores and other workers at Paranagua, Brazil's No. 2 grains port, held work stoppages on Thursday to protest delays by administrators in producing a revised employment contract, the head of the local stevedores union said.
Both two-hour stoppages took place at Paranagua, the southern port that ships much of Brazil's corn and soy, though volumes of both are light at this time of year in the run-up to the peak of harvesting. A port spokeswoman said the effect on port operations was minimal, though it had caused some delays.

Argentine gov't sees soy crop at maximum 45 mln tonnes
BUENOS AIRES, Feb 16 (Reuters) - Argentina's soy harvest could be as small as 43.5 million tonnes due to drought damage, the government said in its first official estimate on Thursday, lower than many private forecasts.
Weeks of dry weather dimmed prospects for a bumper 2011/12 harvest in the world's No. 3 soybean exporter, which is also the top supplier of soyoil and soymeal, though recent rains have brightened the outlook - especially for later-seeded crops.

Africa's pulses exports to India seen up 20 pct in 2012
MUMBAI, Feb 16 (Reuters) - African pulses exports to India are seen rising 20 percent in 2012 from the preceding year, with the continent poised to become the largest supplier of pigeon peas, or tur, to India in the next few years, an industry official said on Thursday.
India, the world's biggest producer, consumer and importer of pulses, mostly imports tur and chickpeas, or chana, from East African countries such as Tanzania, Malawi and Kenya.

Cold damage to EU grain crops limited so far-analyst
PARIS, Feb 16 (Reuters) - Damage to European winter wheat and barley crops due to a cold spell which has hit the bloc since late January is so far limited but risks from frost and thaw cycles remain, analyst Strategie Grains said on Thursday.
The analyst lowered by 600,000 tonnes its estimate for the European Union's soft wheat crop this year to 132.7 million tonnes, still up 3 percent on last year, but said the cut was mostly due to changes in area estimates based on official data.

Brent remains above $120 on Iran worries, Greece optimism
SINGAPORE, Feb 17 (Reuters) - Brent crude remained above $120 on persistent supply worries with major European buyers cutting purchases of Iranian crude and hopes of an increase in demand as Greece edged closer to a bailout deal.
"Brent is reacting to a combination of things, including continued optimism over Greece, a weaker dollar and the market focusing on reduced exports from Iran to Europe," said Jonathan Barratt, chief executive of Barratt's Bulletin.

Copper bounces back on Greece hopes, caution stays
SINGAPORE, Feb 17 (Reuters) - Copper rose more than 1 percent, ending a five-day losing streak, as hopes that debt-laden Greece would secure a second bailout next week revived appetite for risk assets.
"The case for a soft landing for China has already been priced in, so incremental optimism seems to be stretched.

Gold edges up on Greece bailout hopes
SINGAPORE, Feb 17 (Reuters) - Gold prices rose as optimism that Greece may soon secure an urgently needed bailout buoyed financial markets and helped bullion recover from a one-week low hit in the previous session.
"We're at the point where we have tried the downside three or four times in the past two weeks and failed. The frustration with failure to breach the $1,700-$1,710 level might put the focus back on resistance," he said.  

China raises mining taxes on iron, tin, other minerals -paper
SHANGHAI, Feb 17 (Reuters) - China has raised resource tax on iron, tin, molybdenum, magnesium, talc, and boron in a move aimed at conserving resources and curbing pollution, an official newspaper said.
The tax rate for iron ore has been raised to 80 percent of the standard levy from 60 percent, while the tax on tin ore has been lifted to 12-20 yuan per tonne from 0.6-1 yuan per tonne, with the specific rate depending on grade, the Shanghai Securities News reported.

METALS-Copper bounces back on Greece hopes, caution stays
SINGAPORE, Feb 17 (Reuters) - Copper rose more than 1 percent on Friday, ending a five-day losing streak, as hopes that debt-laden Greece would secure a second bailout next week revived appetite for risk assets.
But an unclear outlook for copper demand, particularly from top consumer China, kept the industrial metal's gains in check, with copper still headed for a second straight week of losses.

PRECIOUS-Gold edges up on Greece bailout hopes
SINGAPORE, Feb 17 (Reuters) - Gold prices rose on Friday as optimism that Greece may soon secure an urgently needed bailout buoyed financial markets and helped bullion recover from a one-week low hit in the previous session.
Gold has moved in the range between $1,700 and $1,760 since the beginning of the month, closely tracking the progress and setbacks in Greece's struggle to obtain a 130-billion euro bailout from its international lenders.

20120217 1149 Global Market & Commodities Related News.

GLOBAL MARKETS-Markets rise on Greece bailout hopes, solid U.S. data
TOKYO, Feb 17 (Reuters) - Asian shares rebounded on Friday, as sentiment turned positive on firmer signs euro zone officials would soon approve a long-awaited bailout for Greece to reduce the risk of a disorderly default, while solid U.S. economic data also lent support.
"(Markets) have become more optimistic about the U.S., so a 'growth scare' there could upset market sentiment," it said.

COMMODITIES-Copper springs up from 3-week low, gold flattens
NEW YORK, Feb 16 (Reuters) - Copper turned higher after falling to a three-week low on Thursday, while gold retraced losses and Brent oil reversed up to an eight-month high as the perceived likelihood of a Greek bailout deal gave many commodities an injection of optimism.
"America has a fragile economic recovery and it (the Greek debt crisis) is hurting Chinese exports to the euro zone. I think copper could dip to $8,000 or $7,900, depending how long people are willing to take profits," said VTB Capital analyst Andrey Kryuchenkov.  

Brent tops $120 on Iran, North Sea, Greece
NEW YORK, Feb 16 (Reuters) - Brent crude rose on Thursday for a fourth day in a row, topping $120 a barrel at settlement -- an eight-month high -- on worries about supply from Iran and from the North Sea, where output was expected to dip next month.
 "Crude futures popped on the euro reversal to the upside against the dollar and the S&P 500 also rose," said Addison Armstrong, senior director of market research at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut.

US natural gas ends up 6 pct, inventory data sparks rally
NEW YORK, Feb 16 (Reuters) - Front-month U.S. natural gas futures ended with strong gains on Thursday, driven by steady buying after a government report showed a slightly larger-than-expected weekly inventory draw.
"A larger than expected withdrawal from inventory this morning has been enough to send natgas futures into a modest short covering rally," Energy Management Institute's Dominick Chirichella said in a report.

Euro Coal-Prices rise $1/T with stronger oil
LONDON, Feb 16 (Reuters) - Prompt European physical coal prices rose by around $1.00 a tonne on Thursday although no fresh trades were reported, boosted by oil's climb towards $120 and despite fairly stable European gas and power values.
"You could easily see another $3-4 fall in DES values but probably not as low as $90, not yet, because oil is helping prop prices up," one European trader said.

20120217 0937 Global Economic Related News.

Singapore: Economy contracts less than previously estimated
Singapore’s economy shrank less than initially estimated last quarter as a surge in pharmaceutical production supported manufacturing at the year end. GDP fell an annualized 2.5% in the fourth quarter of 2011 from the previous three months, less than an initial estimate of a 4.9% decline, the trade ministry said in a report yesterday. Non-oil domestic exports will probably rise 3% to 5% in 2012, the trade promotion agency said in a separate statement, reiterating an earlier forecast. (Bloomberg)

China: Foreign investment, trade outlook ‘grim,’ ministry says
China’s commerce ministry said the outlook for foreign investment and trade is “grim,” after slowing economic growth and Europe’s debt crisis spurred the third monthly decline in spending by overseas companies. Foreign direct investment in China fell 0.3% in January from a year earlier to USD9.997bn, the Ministry of Commerce said yesterday. The drop in investment adds to drags on growth in the world’s second-biggest economy from slumping home sales and slowing output gains as Premier Wen Jiabao sustains curbs on real estate. (Bloomberg)

UK: Nationwide consumer confidence climbs to five-month high
UK consumer confidence rose in January to the highest in five months on signs of strength in the economy, according to Nationwide Building Society, which said the increase may be a “temporary bounce.” An index of sentiment rose to 47 from 38 the previous month, the Swindon, England-based customer-owned lender said in a report yesterday. The reading was down 2 points from a year earlier. A gauge of consumers’ outlook for the economy jumped by 14 points. Pressure on consumers eased last month as inflation dropped to a 14-month low of 3.9%. (Bloomberg)

US: New housing construction exceeds forecast in January
Builders broke ground on more homes than forecast in January, helped by warmer weather and adding to signs the US residential real estate market is stabilizing. Starts rose 1.5% to a 699,000 annual rate from December’s 689,000 pace that was stronger than previously reported, Commerce Department figures showed yesterday. Beazer Homes USA Inc and D.R. Horton Inc are among builders reporting more orders as a pick-up in hiring, cheaper properties and borrowing costs close to a record low attract buyers. (Bloomberg)

US: Jobless claims drop points to spending gains
Americans filed the fewest claims for jobless benefits since 2008, surprising forecasters and signaling that an improving labor market will give the world’s largest economy a boost. Claims dropped by 13,000 in the week ended 11 Feb to 348,000. Other reports yesterday showed consumer confidence improved, housing starts climbed and manufacturing in the Philadelphia area accelerated. The decline in claims for jobless benefits coincides with a pickup in hiring that pushed the unemployment rate down to a three-year low last month, giving consumers the confidence to increase spending. (Bloomberg)

US stocks rise on economic data as Greece optimism lifts banks
US stocks advanced, sending the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index near the highest level in about three years, amid better-than-estimated economic reports and optimism that Greece will receive a second bailout. The S&P 500 rose 1.1% to 1,358.04. The benchmark gauge for American equities is 0.4% away from its peak nine months ago of 1,363.61, which was the highest level since June 2008. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 123.13 points, or 1 %, to 12,904.08. (Bloomberg)

20120217 0936 Malaysia Corporate Related News.

Maxis plans RM2.5bn sukuk to fund capex and repay debts
Maxis has proposed a RM2.45bn sukuk issue to fund its capex and repay debts while shareholders could gain from RM320m worth of tax credits the company received from the Government. The issuance will see Maxis’ gearing rise to 0.75x from 0.63x. Maxis also revealed that the Finance Ministry has approved RM320m worth of tax credit under the last mile broadband tax incentives, comprising RM97m for 9MFY11 and RM233m in respect of prior years. (Malaysian Reserve) Please see accompanying report

Uzma Engineering awarded RM350m PCSB contract
Uzma’s wholly-owned subsidiary, Uzma Engineering SB, has been awarded the provision of well testing equipment and services for Petronas’ Drilling Programmes – West Region contract from Petronas Carigali SB (PCSB) valued at approximately RM350m. The oil and gas company said the contract is for a period of five years effective from 1 April 2012 to 31 March 2017. (Malaysian Reserve)

CIMB acquires RBS’ Australian equity arm
CIMB Group has won the bid against China International Capital Corp (CICC) to acquire Royal Bank of Scotland’s (RBS) Australia equity operations for USD50m (RM153m). Staff members were verbally informed yesterday that CIMB had been confirmed as the buyer of the equity arm. (Financial Daily)

TWS Plant disposes of unit for USD25.9m
Tradewinds Plantation (TWS Plant) through its indirect wholly-owned subsidiary Mardec International SB is disposing of its 45% stake in R1 International for USD25.9m (RM79.2m). Mardec, together with two other shareholders of R1, are disposing of in total 90% of the equity interest in R1 to Hainan State Farms Investment and Hainan Rubber Group (S). R1 is principally involved in the trading of natural rubber, latex concentrate and synthetic rubber. (Financial Daily)

20120217 0935 Global Market Related News.

Asian Stocks Rise, Set for Ninth Weekly Rally (Source: Bloomberg)
Asian stocks rose, with the regional benchmark index set to equal its longest ever streak of weekly advances, after U.S. economic reports beat estimates and optimism increased that Greece will get a second debt bailout, boosting demand for riskier assets. Honda Motor Co. (7267), Japan’s second-largest carmaker by market value that generates 44 percent of its revenue in North America, rose 2.3 percent. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. (8306), Japan’s biggest lender, led financial companies higher. Billabong International Ltd. (BBG), a global surfwear maker, surged 47 percent in Sydney after confirming a takeover approach. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.9 percent to 126.97 as of 9:39 a.m. in Tokyo. The measure has advanced 1.7 percent this week, extending its winning streak to the longest since December 2005. The gauge has advanced for nine consecutive weeks only three previous times since its inception at the start of 1988.
“It’s a distinct improvement from the fourth quarter last year from the perspective of investor confidence and risk appetite,” said Prasad Patkar, who helps manage about $1 billion at Platypus Asset Management Ltd. in Sydney. “The European news flow still seems to be determining the direction of the markets. So, when there’s a bit of relief from the European front, the markets can focus on fundamentals, which seem to be improving by the day.”

Japanese Stocks Advance on U.S. Economic Data, Optimism for Greek Bailout (Source: Bloomberg)
Japanese stocks rose to a six-month high after U.S. economic reports beat expectations and optimism rose that Greece will secure a second debt bailout, boosting demand for riskier assets. Honda Motor Co. (7267), a carmaker that generates 44 percent of its revenue in North America, rose 2.6 percent. Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc. (8316), the nation’s second-biggest lender by market value, gained 2.9 percent after banks in the U.S. rebounded. Bridgestone Corp. (5108), the world’s biggest tiremaker by market value, climbed 4.1 percent after forecasting a 63 percent surge in net income this year. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average rose 2 percent to 9,419.75 as of 9:04 a.m. in Tokyo, set for the highest close since Aug. 4. The broader Topix Index gained 1.8 percent to 814.29, with about nine times as many shares rising as falling.
“It’s a distinct improvement from the fourth quarter last year from the perspective of investor confidence and risk appetite,” said Prasad Patkar, who helps manage about $1 billion at Platypus Asset Management Ltd. in Sydney. “The European news flow still seems to be determining the direction of the markets. So when there’s a bit of relief from the European front, the markets can focus on fundamentals, which seem to be improving by the day.”

U.S. Stocks Advance on Economic Reports, Optimism Over Greece Bailout (Source: Bloomberg)
U.S. stocks advanced, sending the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index near the highest level in about three years, amid better-than-estimated economic reports and optimism that Greece will receive a second bailout. Financial (S5FINL) shares rebounded from earlier losses as Bank of America Corp. (BAC) rose 4 percent. Microsoft (MSFT) Corp. climbed 4.1 percent on a report that S&P is likely to increase its weighting in the S&P 500. General Motors Co. (GM) jumped 9 percent after the automaker posted the biggest annual profit in its 103-year- history. NetApp (NTAP) Inc. increased 7.2 percent as the maker of data- storage products reported revenue that beat analysts’ estimates. The S&P 500 rose 1.1 percent to 1,358.04 at 4 p.m. New York time. The benchmark gauge for American equities is 0.4 percent away from its peak nine months ago of 1,363.61, which was the highest level since June 2008. The Dow (INDU) Jones Industrial Average increased 123.13 points, or 1 percent, to 12,904.08.
“I don’t see what the case is for the market collapsing,” Brian Barish, who helps oversee about $7 billion as Denver-based president of Cambiar Investors LLC., said in a phone interview. “The U.S. economy is doing pretty well. Taking the possibility of a euro-Lehman type of event off the table, that has a big effect on sentiment.”

European Stocks Are Little Changed as U.S. Economic Data Outweigh Greece (Source: Bloomberg)
European (SXXP) stocks were little changed, paring earlier losses, as better-than-estimated U.S. economic data outweighed a delay in the bailout of Greece. Banco Santander SA led Spanish lenders lower after the nation’s regulator removed a ban on short sales of financial shares. ABB Ltd. (ABBN) tumbled 3.6 percent after earnings missed estimates. Renault SA rose 4.5 percent after posting 2011 free cash flow that exceeded the company’s target. The Euro Stoxx 50 Index dropped 0.2 percent to 2,489.35 at the close of trading. Stocks pared earlier losses of as much as 1.6 percent after U.S. housing, manufacturing and jobless claims data beat estimates. The gauge has still rallied 7.5 percent this year amid optimism that the euro area will contain its debt crisis and as the U.S. economy continued its recovery.
“Greek concerns appear to be weighing down on markets,” said Peter Dixon, global equities economist at Commerzbank AG. “It’s beginning to look as though the end game may be a lot more messy than anticipated. A Greek exit is certainly no longer off the table,” he said, referring to the possibility of the nation leaving the currency union.

Emerging Stocks Drop Most This Week as Greece Delay Dims Outlook (Source: Bloomberg)
Emerging-market stocks sank, pushing the benchmark index down the most this week, as a delay on Greece’s second bailout and less foreign investment in China dimmed the outlook for the global economy and riskier assets. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index (MXEF) fell 0.9 percent to 1,049.24 at the close in New York, the biggest drop since Feb. 10. Metals companies led declines, as Aluminum Corp. of China Ltd. and Jiangxi Copper Co. (600362) fell the most in at least a week, and AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. (AGL) dropped to a four-month low. OAO Mechel (MTLR), Russia’s largest coking coal producer, hit a one-month low. Brazil’s Bovespa index reached the highest since April after companies reported profit that exceeded estimates.
European governments are considering reducing rates on emergency loans to Greece and using contributions from the European Central Bank to augment a second bailout for Athens, two people familiar with the discussions said. Finance ministers are looking for solutions after seeing estimates that Greece’s debt would fall to 129 percent of gross domestic product in 2020, missing the 120 percent target. Foreign direct investment into China fell in January for the third month, Commerce Ministry data showed.

Euro falls to 3-week low vs dollar on Greece delay
LONDON, Feb 16 (Reuters) - The euro fell to a three-week low versus the dollar as euro zone officials put off agreeing further aid for Greece, sparking fears of a chaotic default and leaving the euro vulnerable to more falls.
"The talk of delaying the bailout package is raising uncertainty. It's not clear whether Athens will be able to secure funds needed to redeem bonds on March 20," said Sumino Kamei, senior analyst at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ in Tokyo.

RDQ’s Ryding Calls Bernanke’s 2014 Low-Rate Pledge Misguided: Tom Keene (Source: Bloomberg)
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s pledge to keep rates exceptionally low through late 2014 is a mistake with the U.S. economy gaining steam, said John Ryding, chief economist and co-founder of RDQ Economics. “Why are we still having crisis policy and committing to it for another two and a half years when the economy is getting better and we are not in crisis?” Ryding said in an interview today on Bloomberg Television’s “Surveillance Midday” with Tom Keene. Ryding said Fed policy makers are trying to rescue the housing market, which is showing signs of recovery on its own. Bernanke, in a speech to homebuilders in Orlando, Florida, on Feb. 10, urged additional steps to heal residential real estate. He repeated that because of slow construction, recovery has been “frustratingly slow.”

Drop in Jobless Claims Points to Spending Gains (Source: Bloomberg)
Americans filed the fewest claims for jobless benefits since 2008, surprising forecasters and signaling that an improving labor market will give the world’s largest economy a boost. Claims dropped by 13,000 in the week ended Feb. 11 to 348,000, less than the most optimistic estimate of 45 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Other reports today showed consumer confidence improved, housing starts climbed and manufacturing in the Philadelphia area accelerated. Stocks rose on evidence that the U.S. expansion is gaining strength in the face of the European crisis and a slowdown in China. The decline in claims for jobless benefits coincides with a pickup in hiring that pushed the unemployment rate down to a three-year low last month, giving consumers the confidence to increase spending.

Consumer Comfort Rises to Highest Level in Year (Source: Bloomberg)
Consumer confidence in the U.S. increased for a fourth straight week to reach the highest level in a year as more households believe the economy is improving. The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index rose to minus 39.8 in the period ended Feb. 12 from minus 41.7 the previous week. It marked just the third time since April 2008 that the gauge has climbed above minus 40, a reading consistent with recessions or their aftermath. The monthly expectations gauge climbed to minus 7 in February, also a 12-month high. Sentiment among those without a job was the strongest since April 2008, showing news of payroll gains and fewer job cuts is even lifting the spirits of households that have yet to benefit from the recovery. Higher stock prices so far this year may also be giving confidence a boost, helping offset rising fuel prices.
“Rising incomes, a slower pace of firings in the economy and a modest wealth effect due to the near bull market in equities likely combined to create the conditions that sent economic pessimism to its lowest reading in over a year,” said Joseph Brusuelas, a senior economist at Bloomberg LP in New York.

January Wholesale Prices in U.S. Rise 0.1% (Source: Bloomberg)
Wholesale prices in the U.S. rose less than forecast in January as food and energy costs dropped, a sign inflation pressures may remain subdued.  The producer price index rose 0.1 percent following a 0.1 percent decrease the prior month, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. Economists projected a 0.4 percent gain, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey. The core measure excluding volatile food and energy rose 0.4 percent, more than projected, led by a surge in drug prices. At the start of a new year, companies may try to test the economy’s ability to absorb price increases in order to recover higher raw-material expenses. Nonetheless, slowing growth from Europe to Asia signal commodity costs will probably stabilize, while a U.S. unemployment rate exceeding 8 percent means households will resist attempts to charge more for goods.

Housing Starts in U.S. Rise Above Forecasts (Source: Bloomberg)
Builders broke ground on more homes than forecast in January, helped by warmer weather and adding to signs the U.S. residential real estate market is stabilizing. Starts rose 1.5 percent to a 699,000 annual rate from December’s 689,000 pace that was stronger than previously reported, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. The median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey called for a rise to 675,000. Building permits, a proxy for future construction, also climbed. Beazer Homes USA Inc. (BZ) and D.R. Horton Inc. (DHI) are among builders reporting more orders as a pickup in hiring, cheaper properties and borrowing costs close to a record low attract buyers. At the same time, the glut of foreclosed houses remains a restraint on construction, one reason the Obama administration and the Federal Reserve are taking steps to bolster the industry.

China 2012 Plan May Target Growth Below 8%, State Economist Fan Predicts (Source: Bloomberg)
China may set its lowest annual growth target in eight years as authorities place less emphasis on the pace of expansion and the global economy remains weak, Fan Jianping, chief economist at the government-run State Information Center, said. Premier Wen Jiabao may announce a 7 percent or 7.5 percent target for economic growth this year at the annual National People’s Congress meetings that convene in March, Fan said in an interview today. The last time China set a growth target below 8 percent was in 2004, when the goal was 7 percent. “A lower target will act as a guidance for local authorities to not focus on chasing speed,” said Fan, who is head of the Economic Forecasting Department at the center which is controlled by China’s top economic planning agency. “Growth will slow because the world outlook remains weak while a lot of things also need to be done domestically in terms of economic rebalancing,” he said.
Average annual growth of 10 percent in the past three decades that transformed China into the world’s second-largest economy also made it the world’s biggest polluter and spurred a widening income gap. Premier Wen last year unveiled a five-year plan for the period through 2015 that targeted annual expansion of 7 percent and said the government’s emphasis would be on ensuring the “quality and benefits” of growth.

Europe Said to Weigh ECB Role to Narrow Gap in Financing for Greek Bailout (Source: Bloomberg)
European governments are considering cutting interest rates on emergency loans to Greece and using contributions from the European Central Bank to plug a new financing gap in the second bailout program for Athens, two people familiar with the discussions said. Finance ministers wrangled over how to close the funding hole in a teleconference last night after seeing estimates that Greece’s debt would fall to 129 percent of gross domestic product in 2020, missing a target of 120 percent, said the people, who declined to be named because the talks are still in progress. Last year, the level was about 160 percent. Overcoming the final obstacles and Greece meeting the conditions set by euro finance chiefs yesterday may enable the ministers’ next meeting on Feb. 20 to approve both the 130 billion-euro ($170 billion) lifeline and a bond exchange with private investors that is critical to staving off a Greek default in March, the German finance ministry told coalition lawmakers in Berlin today, three officials said.

Germany Eyes Approval for Greek Rescue (Source: Bloomberg)
Germany wants euro-area finance chiefs to avoid splitting consideration of a 130 billion-euro ($171 billion) Greek rescue and a bond swap to cut the nation’s debt load at a meeting next week, coalition lawmakers were told by German government officials in a briefing. As long as Greece meets conditions for the aid, the finance chiefs will probably approve the package along with the debt exchange, three German officials involved in the telephone briefing yesterday said. A Finance Ministry spokesman declined to comment. Wrangling among euro-area finance ministers on a Feb. 15 conference call over how to reduce Greece’s debt load and tighten control of the aid raised the prospect of a two-step process, according to two people familiar with the talks. In that scenario, the ministers’ Feb. 20 gathering in Brussels would be limited to kicking off the bond exchange and deferring decision on the rest of the bailout funds.

20120217 0934 Global Commodities Related News.

Corn (Source: CME)
U.S. corn futures rally, ending higher on strong weekly export sales. The morning sales announcement of more than 1 million metric tons helped the market rebound after falling to a 3-week low Wednesday. The sales are a reminder that supplies remain tight and that it will take a big U.S. crop with favorable weather this year to replenish the pipeline. Traders also noting a correction in the corn/soybean spread, which had widened in recent days, prompting speculation that U.S. corn acreage could decrease. CBOT March corn ends up 9 1/4c to $6.36 1/4 per bushel.

Wheat (Source: CME)
US wheat futures end higher on a rally for corn, decent export sales for both grains and worries about spring wheat acreage. Still, traders are quick to note that world wheat supplies are ample. Deferred contracts for MGEX spring wheat soar, fueled by concerns that farmers won't plant enough acres in the northern Plains, analysts say. CBOT March wheat rises 2 3/4c to $6.28/bushel, KCBT March climbs 13c to $6.83 and MGEX September soars 3.7% to $7.97.

Rice (Source: CME)
US rice futures end slightly lower for a second straight day as the market drifts amid poor demand. World supplies are ample and desire for US rice has been slack for months. CBOT March rice ends down 4 1/2c at $14.30/hundredweight.

US corn at 3-week low on supply hopes, soy dips
SINGAPORE, Feb 16 (Reuters) - U.S. corn futures slid to a three-week low falling for a third straight day on expectations of a bigger corn stocks, while soybeans slid 0.7 percent, ending a four-session rising streak.
"We have had a good rally in beans so it might be a bit of profit-taking," said Adam Davis, a senior commodity analyst at Merricks Capital in Melbourne. "Funds are piling into soybeans and selling corn which is going to dictate price action in beans and corn."

Cold damage to EU grain crops limited so far-analyst
PARIS, Feb 16 (Reuters) - Damage to European winter wheat and barley crops due to a cold spell which has hit the bloc since late January is so far limited but risks from frost and thaw cycles remain, analyst Strategie Grains said on Thursday.
The analyst lowered by 600,000 tonnes its estimate for the European Union's soft wheat crop this year to 132.7 million tonnes, still up 3 percent on last year, but said the cut was mostly due to changes in area estimates based on official data.

Argentina, China reach deal on corn trade-minister
BUENOS AIRES, Feb 15 (Reuters) - Argentine and Chinese officials signed a sanitary protocol on Wednesday allowing China to buy Argentine corn products after months of negotiations, the South American country's agricultural minister said.
Argentina is the world's No. 2 corn exporter after the United States, and China is a major global food importer.

Impact of downed Brazil grains loader looms
SAO PAULO, Feb 15 (Reuters) - The risk of bottlenecks for soy and corn exports from Brazil, one of the world's top suppliers of the commodities, is growing each day the country's main grain terminal at Santos Port is shut down due to a collision with a ship late on Monday.
The impact of the impaired terminal on world food and futures markets is still small while harvesting of grains in Brazil remains nascent, a port official said.

W.Australia grains harvest hits record 15 mln/t-minister
SYDNEY, Feb 16 (Reuters) - Western Australia state's 2011-2012 grains harvest has exceeded 15 million tonnes for the first time, with more than 80 percent of the tonnage earmarked for export, the state government said on Thursday.
The bumper crop was recorded despite an abnormally wet and protracted harvest in recent months, Terry Redman, the state's minister for agriculture said in a statement.

Farmers sue to regain control of Canadian Wheat Board
WINNIPEG, Manitoba, Feb 15 (Reuters) - Several farmer organizations that support the Canadian Wheat Board's grain marketing monopoly are launching a court action aimed at restoring farmer control of the board and collecting C$17 billion ($17 billion) in damages for farmers.
The lawsuit, launched by the law firm Sack Goldblatt Mitchell LLP, will present constitutional arguments to try to remove the CWB from government control, and collect damages farmers may incur from the board's weakened market clout, the Friends of the Canadian Wheat Board group said on Wednesday.

Argentina Exchange Maintains 2011-12 Soy, Corn Production Forecasts (Source: CME)
The Buenos Aires Cereals Exchange held its soy and corn production forecasts steady in its weekly crop report, saying that it expects rains to drench a large part of the farm belt during the next week. Rain in recent weeks has helped the developing 2011-12 soy crop to recover from drought conditions in December and much of January that caused permanent damage to the corn crop. In the case of soy, an increase in the seeded area will offset lower yields due to dry weather earlier in the season, said the exchange, which maintained its 2011-12 production forecast at 46.2 million metric tons. The exchange also stuck to its corn harvest forecast of 21.3 million metric tons. Exports of grains and soybeans, including related products like soyoil and soymeal, are a key contributor to the federal government's coffers and the trade surplus, which eased to $10.35 billion last year.

China To Start Buying Argentine Corn (Source: CME)
Chinese and Argentine authorities have reached a deal to start sales of corn from the South American nation to the Asian country, Argentina agriculture minister Norberto Yauhar announced. Argentina is the world's second-largest corn exporter behind the U.S., shipping over 15 million metric tons of corn in calendar year 2011. Last year, the top buyers included Colombia, Algeria and Peru. China has historically been a major corn exporter, but weather problems in recent seasons and soaring demand have turned the country into an importer. China and Argentina have been in talks for over a year to reach the sanitary accord needed to clear the shipment of Argentina's transgenic corn varieties to China. Argentina's agriculture ministry has forecast corn production for the 2011-12 season at 23 million metric tons, one of the largest crops on record.

Soybeans Called to Open Lower on Brazil Rainfall; Corn, Wheat May Decline (Source: Bloomberg)
What follows are opening calls for U.S. grain and oilseed markets.
-- Soybean futures may open 6 cents to 9 cents a bushel lower on the Chicago Board of Trade on speculation that rains next week will ease dry conditions for crops in Brazil, Chad Henderson, a market analyst with Prime Agricultural Consultants Inc. in Brookfield, Wisconsin, said in a telephone interview. Soybean- oil futures may open 0.5 cent to 0.6 cent a pound lower, and soybean-meal futures may open down $2 to $3 per 2,000 pounds.
-- Corn futures are called to open 1 cent to 3 cents a bushel lower in Chicago on speculation that demand will slow from U.S. ethanol producers as stockpiles of the gasoline additive climb, Henderson said.
-- Wheat futures may open steady to down 2 cents a bushel on the CBOT, the Kansas City Board of Trade and the Minneapolis Grain Exchange after a government report showed U.S. export sales have slowed, Henderson said.

Drought Clouds Outlook For US Cotton Production (Source: CME)
Federal forecasters expect a severe drought to continue or intensify in the U.S.'s top two cotton-producing states, a factor that may clip output there next fall. Dry weather likely will persist in Texas and Georgia through the end of May, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said. Together, the two states comprised more than 40% of U.S. cotton production last autumn. "We'll get a shower every now and then but we're extremely dry," Gary Collins, an agronomist at the University of Georgia, said. A drought ravaged production in top growing state Texas last fall. Production of upland variety cotton, the vast majority of what the U.S. grows, was halved compared with the 2010-11 season, according to the USDA. Mike Lucas, a cotton grower in Cochran, Ga., and vice chairman of the Georgia Cotton Commission, a growers' crop-research group, said irrigating his 300 acres of cotton would drive up production costs. "It's a lot more expensive," he said.
It is too early to tell whether the drought will hurt planting since a few days of rainfall could be a game-changer, Collins said. But Lucas said the situation is causing "a lot of worry." "We just hope the good Lord sends the rain," he said.

Rain Seen Helping Mexican Sugar Production In 2012-13 (Source: CME)
Long-awaited rain in Mexico's sugar-producing regions is going to help Mexico's 2012-13 harvest more than the current season's, Carlos Blackaller, president of the National Union of Sugarcane Growers, said. The rain started coming down last Thursday, after months of drought in the sugar regions. Yields for sugarcane harvested in April, May and June might increase slightly, he said, which would help the 2011-12 crop that is currently under way. However, the cane that is developing for the coming season, which starts in October, will see the greatest benefit. Mexico's 2011-12 sugar harvest is 42.5% harvested as of Feb. 11, with 2.03 million metric tons of sugar produced from 19.51 million tons of cane. The average yield of sugar per ton of sugarcane was 10.41%. The Mexican government recently lowered its estimate for the 2011-12 harvest to 5.1 million metric tons, from a previous forecast of 5.3 million tons. There is no official 2012-13 production forecast yet.

Ivory Coast cocoa reform talks stall over costs
ABIDJAN, Feb 15 (Reuters) - Talks on Ivory Coast's sweeping cocoa reform plan have stalled between leading export firms and authorities over its proposed allowance for transport costs, sources from both sides said on Wednesday.
The top grower nation's overhaul of the cocoa sector is meant to provide farmers a price floor to encourage investment and is also a vital step for the war-scarred West African state to get more relief on its foreign debt.

Brazil cocoa arrivals jump in the last week
SAO PAULO, Feb 15 (Reuters) - Cocoa deliveries to warehouses in Brazil jumped in the last week, boosted by a surge in the supply from smaller producing states, data from the Bahia Commercial Association showed on Wednesday, but output from the main cocoa state Bahia slipped.
Total domestic arrivals in the week to Feb. 14 totaled 32,460 60-kg bags, up from 26,691 bags in the previous week. Bahia-based cocoa analyst Thomas Hartmann said the additional output was almost all from the northern state of Para.

Uganda's 2012 sugar production seen up 26 pct
KAMPALA, Feb 15 (Reuters) - Uganda's 2012 raw sugar production is forecast to rise 26 percent, boosted by expected good weather and higher cane supplies from outgrowers, an industry official said on Wednesday.  
Wilberforce Mubiru, secretariat manager at Uganda Sugar Cane Technologists Association (USCTA), told Reuters the east African country would produce about 327,075 tonnes of sugar, up from last year's 259,413 tonnes.

Brent reverses gains; Greece weighs
LONDON, Feb 16 (Reuters) - Brent crude reversed earlier gains and drifted below $119 after topping $120 a barrel the previous day as fears of a delay in a second bailout package for Greece weighed down global markets.
"We have some retracement after yesterday's Iran stories and generally a risk off on yet another postponement of the Greek deal," said Thorbjorn bak Jansen, oil analyst at Global Risk Management in Copenhagen.

Oil Trades Near Six-Week High on U.S. Economy, Optimism Over Greek Aid (Source: Bloomberg)
Oil traded near the highest price in six weeks as signs of an improving U.S. economy and progress on a bailout plan for Greece bolstered speculation that fuel demand will recover. Futures were little changed, heading for the biggest weekly gain this year, after U.S. jobless claims dropped to the lowest level since 2008. Greece expects euro area finance ministers to approve a second aid package at a meeting on Feb. 20, according to Pantelis Kapsis, a government spokesman. Oil for March delivery was at $102.29 a barrel, down 2 cents, on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 8:14 a.m. Singapore time. Prices yesterday rose 51 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $102.31, the highest close since Jan. 4. Prices are up 3.7 percent this week, the most since the period ended Dec. 23, and 18 percent the past year.
Brent oil for April settlement rose $1.18, or 1 percent, to $120.11 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange yesterday, the highest close in eight months. The premium to West Texas Intermediate for the same month was at $17.47, compared with a record $27.88 on Oct. 14.

Gold Traders Get More Bullish as Billionaire Paulson Says Buy: Commodities (Source: Bloomberg)
Gold traders are getting more bullish after billionaire hedge-fund manager John Paulson told investors it’s time to buy the metal as protection against inflation caused by government spending. Twelve of 22 surveyed by Bloomberg expect prices to gain next week and five were neutral. Paulson & Co. is already the biggest investor in the SPDR Gold Trust, the largest exchange- traded product backed by bullion, with a stake valued at $2.9 billion, a Securities and Exchange Commission filing Feb. 14 showed. Investors have 2,387.4 metric tons in ETPs, within 0.3 percent of the record reached in December and more than all but four central banks, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Speculators in U.S. gold futures are now their most bullish since September after the Bank of England and Bank of Japan said they will buy more assets and the Federal Reserve said it was considering purchasing more bonds.
Central banks are also expanding their bullion reserves, adding 439.7 tons last year, the most in almost five decades. They may buy a similar amount in 2012, the London-based World Gold Council said yesterday.

20120217 0934 Soy Oil & Palm Oil Related News.

Soybeans (Source: CME)
US soybean futures ended lower after trading near unchanged levels for most of the day. A lack of fresh news limited trader's interest, with analysts saying the market has adequately factored in recent export sales and Brazil crop concerns on rallies in prior days. Weekly export sales near the low end of expectations, and disappointment that Wednesday's sales announcements to China didn't signify anything beyond what China were going to buy any way, triggered some profit taking, analysts say. CBOT March soybean ended down 2 3/4c to $12.58 1/4/bushel.

Soybean Meal/Oil (Source: CME)
Soy product futures ended lower, falling in line with soybeans. Light profit taking after advances in prior trading days weighed on prices, analysts say. The markets lacked fresh support to encourage traders to extend recent advances. CBOT March soymeal ended down $2.00 to $330.80/short ton, March soyoil dropped 0.30c to 53.05 cents/pound.

Soybean oil to take limelight from canola: Maguire
-- Gavin Maguire is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own. --
By Gavin Maguire
CHICAGO, Feb 15 (Reuters) - Rapeseed crop concerns in Europe have helped fuel a sharp rally in canola oil over the past month, and helped return the edible oil markets to trader radars.
But while canola may have taken the lead so far in this 'veg oil' renaissance, soybean oil looks set to take over as the market to watch on the back of reduced soybean production prospects in exporting giant Argentina and a likely soybean acreage reduction in the United States for 2012.

Palm oil eases on Greece bailout delay
SINGAPORE, Feb 16 (Reuters) - Malaysian crude palm oil futures slipped as a delay in a second bailout package for Greece raised investors' concerns, although losses were limited by dry weather fears in soy-producing South America.
"The recent exports data showed that exports for the first 15 days are not that strong but I suspect that this could be due to the delay in the issuance of tax-free crude palm oil quota," said Ivy Ng, an analyst with Malaysia's CIMB Investment Bank.