Thursday, June 3, 2010

20100603 1931 FCPO EOD Daily Chart Study.

FCPO closed : 2453, changed : -15 points, volume : low.

Bollinger band reading : side way upside downside biased.
MACD Histrogram : getting higher slightly, battle between buyer and seller.
Support : 2450, 2400, 2380 level.
Resistant : 2470, 2500, 2521 level.
Comment :
Ranging FCPO ended the day right a the low of the day with nearly halfed volume changed hand compare to yesterday. Daily chart shows that market is likely to stay side way range bound downside biased in the near term and market have yet to break above the plotted downward trendline.
When to buy : buy at support or weakness with quick cut loss and profit target.
When to sell : sell at resistant or strength with quick cut loss and profit target.

20100603 1738 FKLI EOD Daily Chart Study.

FKLI closed : 1300, changed : +20.5 points, volume : lower.
Bollinger band reading : side way range bound correction downside biased.
MACD Histrogram : getting higher buyer returned.
Support : 1290, 1280, 1274 level.
Resistant : 1300, 1310, 1318 level.
Comment :
Upward correction FKLI opened gap up and continue to surge higher with deminishing volume changed and closed near the high of the day right at resistant level doing 5.5 points premium compare to cash market. Daily chart reading continue to show a upward correction downside biased market. At closed Hang Seng index futures is doing 13 points premium compare to Hang Seng cash market.
When to buy : buy at support or weakness with quick cut loss and profit target.
When to sell : sell at resistant/strength/breakdown with larger cut loss and profit target.

20100603 1457 Palm Oil News

YOGYAKARTA, Indonesia June 3 (Reuters) - India's palm oil imports ahead of its festival season will tumble 30 percent to 1.13 million tonnes for July-September shipments from a year ago, on a high domestic oilseed crush, traders said on Thursday.

Palm oil mostly bought from Indonesia has also given up some of its market share to Argentine soyoil that has narrowed its price difference with palm oil to below $50 a tonne from $150 two months ago.

India, the world's largest consumer of vegetable oils, will mark a string of religious events, starting with the Muslim holy month of Ramadan in August and ending with the Hindu festival of Diwali in November.

Last year in the July-September run up, India bought a record 1.6 million tonnes of palm oil products that consist mainly of crude palm oil with smaller quantities of refined palm olein and palm kernel oil, industry data showed.

"We are not going to make much of an impact on India this year," said an Indonesian palm oil exporter at the sidelines of an industry conference in Java.

"Although we still have market share, the Indian middle class can now afford to pay the slight premium for soyoil since the economy is strong and there are ample soyoil supplies that brought down the prices."

Declining interest from India, is in part due to a normalising of the monsoon that irrigates oilseed crops across the subcontinent.

India has about 70 percent of this year's oilseed output of around 26 million tonnes to process, and crushing is likely to pick up this month as the monsoon travels across the country.

That could weigh on benchmark crude palm oil futures in Malaysia, which have fallen about 7 percent so far this year.

Another Indonesian trader said India bought crude palm oil at $790 a tonne cost and freight (C&F) this week, just 5.6 percent cheaper than South American soyoil at $837 a tonne C&F.

"They (Indian traders) are waiting for a further price decrease," said a trader with Singapore listed company holding Indonesian estates.

"I am confident they will buy at least more than what was contracted for April-June shipment that was slightly more than a million tonnes."

But soyoil is seen at least taking 100,000 tonnes of market share from palm oil in the second quarter, a trend that will continue into July-September as more South American soyoil supplies hit markets, an Indian trader said.

"It all boils down to price. The only thing that might help palm oil is if production really soars this year. Perhaps then it can widen its discount with soyoil," the trader told Reuters from Indian port city of Mumbai.

Southeast Asian palm oil production, from Malaysia especially, is expected to rebound after a prolonged season of weak yields aggravated by the drier weather from El Nino condition, industry officials have said.

20100603 1236 FCPO Mid Day Hourly Chart Study.

FCPO closed : 2474, changed : +6 points, volume : low.
Bollinger band reading : side way upside biased.
MACD Histrogram : reversed lower, buyer taking small exposure.
Support : 2470, 2450, 2400 level.
Resistant : 2500, 2521, 2550 level.
Comment :
Continue higher FCPO traded in tight 11 points range with low volume transacted. Hourly chart reading suggesting a side way range bound upside biased market that managed to break and stay above 2470 resistant turned support price level.

20100603 1155 Palm Oil News.

YOGYAKARTA, Indonesia, June 3 (Reuters) - China, the No.2 buyer of vegetable oils, will order more palm oil cargoes from July onwards to stock up for its holiday season starting in September, traders said on Thursday. China tends to build up stocks two to three months ahead of festivals and this year the Mid-Autumn festival falls on the third week of September and National Day holiday stretches over the first week of October.

For now, China has slowed purchases as palm oil stocks at ports range between 500,000-700,000 tonnes compared to the usual 350,000-400,000 tonnes, said Southeast Asian and Chinese traders attending a palm oil conference in Indonesia. In July last year, stocks hit 600,000 tonnes.

Chinese traders this week bought refined, bleached and deodorised (RBD) palm olein at $805-$810 a tonne, cost and freight (C&F), dealers said. The product is processed into cooking oil and used for manufacturing noodles and sweets.

China buys the bulk of its palm oil cargoes from Malaysia, the second largest palm oil producer in the world, although it has increasingly made purchases from Indonesia.

20100603 0925 Edible Oil / Oil Seeds News.

Palm oil extends gains, tracking stronger soy

JAKARTA, June 2 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures extended gains for a second day as firmer prices for rival soyoil sparked some short-covering, traders said.
"Higher vegetable oils supported palm oil" said a Kuala Lumpur-based trader, adding that the market was "holding up quite well considering (the fall in) crude oil."

US soybean plantings rise amid good weather

WASHINGTON/CHICAGO, June 1 (Reuters) - U.S. soybean plantings soared in the latest week to 74 percent, matching analysts' expectations, as farmers took advantage of summer-like heat in much of the Corn Belt, the government said on Tuesday. Soybean seedings rose 21 percentage points from a week ago, said the U.S. Agriculture Department in its report for the week ending on Sunday.

Indonesia says won't revoke existing forestry licenses

YOGYAKARTA, Indonesia, June 2 (Reuters) - Indonesia won't revoke existing forestry licenses for palm oil firms as part of a deal with Norway to preserve rain forests, a government minister and industry official said on Wednesday. Chief Economic Minister Hatta Rajasa told reporters that the government had no intention of limiting the expansion of the $15-billion Indonesian palm oil industry, although it was committed to slowing deforestation.

20100603 0858 Soy Oil Futures Commentary.

Soyoil futures stumbled, retreating from earlier gains as profit-taking surfaced after crude oil pulled off its highs. Futures remain tied to energy amid the soyoil's makeup in biodiesel. July soyoil settled 0.10 cents, or 0.27%, lower at 37.42 cents per pound.(CME)