Monday, December 7, 2009

20091207 1840 FCPO EOD Daily Chart Study.

Crude palm oil futures traded marginally lower to closed at 2559 down 3 points after morning gap up and hit the high at 2606 followed by profit taking activities in response to majority of the commodities futures market that traded weaker due to stronger US dollar. At closed, price still ended near the upper Bollinger band level with the band width contracted marginally = market remained upside biased with possible correction taking place. MACD Histrogram stayed unchanged = today's transacted volume are evenly distributed among buyers and sellers. Look at the chart wise, market could still potentially trade higher but having said that trader have to monitor closely the development of US dollar and US interest rate that could potentially turn the positive sentiment away.
When to buy : buy at support/weakness/break up with larger cut loss and profit target.
When to sell : sell at resistant or strength with quick cut loss and profit target. 

20091207 1801 FKLI EOD Daily Chart Study.

In tandem with most of the regional market that closed lower, FKLI also traded lower to closed at the low 1257.5 down 9.5 points. The much dragged side way range bound market finally ended with break down that closed at lower Bollinger band with the band width just started to expand = negative sentiment has just returned to the market. MACD Histrogram also dive deeper today = seller has finally won the battle. With this market is likely to trade down side baised should Bollinger band continue to expand further. 
When to buy : buy at support or weakness with quick cut loss and profit target.
When to sell : sell at resistant/strength/break down with larger cut loss and profit target.

20091207 1749 DJIA EOD Daily Chart Study.

DJIA closed last Friday up 22.75 point at 10388.90 with extremely high volume transacted forming a doji bar candle. Price managed to hold on closing right above the middle Bollinger band with the band width continue to hold tighter = the side way range bound market to continue. MACD Histrogram recorded lower reading = seller could possibly building up their position. Stronger US dollar shadowed world major market to closed red with exception of the Nikkei that espaced the negative closing. The negative sentiment even excelerate with rumors on possible rise of interest rate in the US. Overal expecting a side way downside biased market tonight.

20091207 1257 FKLI Mid Day Hourly Chart Study.

A patience challenge market taking place in the FKLI that range directionless with very thin volume traded. Price just hovering around the middle Bollinger band with the band width stay flat since morning = continue side way market. MACD Histrogram also remained nearly unchange around the zero line level = both buyer and seller still waiting for fresh lead and catalyst to enter the market. With major Asia market also traded mix, FKLI is likely to trade within the narrow Bollinger band.

20091207 1246 FCPO Mid Day Hourly Chart Study.

FCPO opened gap up, traded higher to hit the high of 2606 followed by profit taking activities to pushed it down to closed up only 3 points at 2565. Price closed near the upper Bollinger band with the band width expanding = market is still bullish with some correction taking place. MACD Histrogram turned lower = seller decided to locked in profit after price extended for nearly 130 points. The correction could continue to take place in the second hald session with immediate support stands at 2521 and follow by the middle Bollinger band.

20091207 1229 Malaysia Corporate News.

The two-decade relationship between Petra Perdana’s executive chairman/CEO Tengku Datuk Ibrahim Petra and its senior GMs Datuk Henry Kho and Francis Koh is under pressure and could result in the sale of Petra Perdana’s 55% stake in Petra Energy. Industry observers are predicting that the split may come at the end of this year if the price is right. The emergence of a new shareholder, Datuk Bustari Yusof, in Petra Energy, is further fuelling the speculation of a separation of Petra Energy from the Petra group. (The Edge Weekly)

The Najib administration is taking another step in economic liberalisation by preparing to sell down stakes in government-linked companies (GLCs) in a bid to raise revenue and encourage the private sector to drive the economy. The Malaysian Insider understands that the first sell-downs will likely involve property and construction companies held by government investment arm Khazanah. Funds raised from a sell down would also come in useful for the government which is grappling with a budget deficit. Among the property companies that Khazanah has substantial stakes in include UEM Land, Putrajaya Holdings and STLR. Its collection of infrastructure and construction companies include Plus Expressways, UEM Group, UEM Builders and Opus International Group. Critics of GLCs have also long argued that the government should not get involved in business and compete with the private sector but should instead concentrate on improving the economic climate and regulatory framework. While it might make sense for the government to have a stake in companies in strategic sectors such as utilities, critics also point out that the government can still retain control without owning too high a percentage of the company. (The Malaysian Insider)

Crude oil prices are in “the right range” and there is no need to reduce inventories, Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said ahead of a 22 December OPEC meeting scheduled for later this month. “Inventories are coming down, the price is perfect, and all investors, consumers, producers -- they’re all very happy,” Al-Naimi said today in Cairo, where Arab oil ministers are holding an annual meeting. Algerian Oil Minister Chakib Khelil said it will be “some time” before oil production will have to increase. (Bloomberg) 
This is bad news for tanker shipping rates and MISC, as rates are highly correlated to OPEC output.

Malaysia is looking to genetics to help its palm oil industry improve productivity, according to Oxford Business Group (OBG). The country is also moving towards enhancing the sector's image while seeking to capture a bigger share of the global vegetable oil market, it added. (Bernama)

James Fry, who heads LMC International in London, said palm oil prices may rise to RM3,200 by Jun-10 based on Brent crude hitting US$85/barrel and Malaysian palm oil stocks falling to 1.25m tonnes. Dorab Mistry, head of vegetable oils trading with Godrej International, echoed Fry's views, saying that palm oil will rise to RM2,800-RM3,000 in 1Q 2010 on strong demand and as hotter weather hits yields. Mistry based his predictions on the brewing El Nino pattern, which can cause drought conditions in the Asia-Pacific region, hitting production in Malaysia and limiting output growth in Indonesia. (Reuters, BT)

Carlsberg Brewery Malaysia managing director Soren Holm Jensen says Carlsberg Malaysia has big advertising and promotion (A&P) campaigns in 2010, starting with the Chinese New Year (CNY) period in February. 
  • Carlsberg Malaysia also plans to do “something big” during the FIFA World Cup that kicks off in early June in South Africa next year.
  • Given the improved economic outlook for next year, the World Cup season and the need to cash in on sales during CNY, the brewery will be increasing its A&P expenditure for next year, Jensen says.
  • Jensen says Carlsberg Malaysia also has “something big” planned for the third quarter of 2010 but says it is too early to disclose anything. Carlsberg Malaysia will be launching two or three new brands next year. (Starbiz)
Telecom operators who have contributed a total of more than RM5bn to the universal services provision (USP) fund, would like to see more transparency on how the fund is managed to achieve its goal of bridging the country's digital divide. They would also like the regulator, which manages the fund, to consider lowering the base contribution rate of 6% of revenue, considering that the fund is under-utilised. They would like to see more progress on the "clawback provision" where contributors are able to get back up to 50% of their contributions are able to get back up to 50% of their contributions by applying to roll out their services in under-served areas. (StarBiz)

Celcom will focus on pushing its mobile broadband service to sustain its quarterly growth streak, its CEO said after announcing a record quarterly net profit. Its primary target now is to double its mobile broadband customer base to one million by end-2010 from 475,000 in 3Q09. "That's our ambition. It's challenging, but it won't be impossible. In fact, right now, we have already touched the 500,000-mark," Celcom CEO Datuk Seri Shazalli Ramly said. (BT)

Industry players, who have contributed a total of more than RM5bn to the Universal Service Provision (USP) fund would like to see more transparency on how the fund is managed to achieve its goal of bridging the country's digital divide. They would also like the Malaysian Communication and Multimedia Commission (MCMC) to consider lowering the base contribution rate of 6% of revenue, considering that the fund is under-utilised at present and that the earnings of telco operators have been impacted by the economic slowdown. They would also like to see more progress on the "clawback provision" where contributors are able to get back up to 50% of their contributions by applying to roll out their services in under-served areas. (Starbiz)

Hektar REIT, an investor in shopping malls, says it is in talks to buy new assets and plans to sell more units to fund future purchases. Most of the potential buys are located in Peninsular Malaysia, chairman and CEO Datuk Jaafar Abdul Hamid said, adding that it was in talks with township developers and other asset managers. While rival Axis REIT has garnered more investor attention after converting into an Islamic REIT, Jaafar said that Hektar had no plans to follow in Axis' footstep. (BT)

Sunway's construction division has been awarded a contract worth RM23.44 million by  Damansara Assets Sdn Bhd for piling and substructure works in Johor with a completion date targeted for May 31, 2010. (BT)

SAAG Consolidated (M), an oil and gas support service provider, will build two power plants in Bangladesh for US$120m (RM405.6m). It has received a letter of award from Garisan Etika Bangladesh (Pvt.) Ltd for the engineering, procurement and construction of the 6 X 6 MW DG power plant and the 2 X 34 MW combined cycle power plant. (BT)

Uni.Asia Life Assurance is looking to partner more banks to grow its bancassurance channel, especially since its support service and infrastructure are developed based on multiple distribution strategy. "We are in talks, but the tie-ups will depend on our partners and when they are ready. Since we are stronger in alternative than tied-agency, we have a better understanding of our distributors' needs in servicing their customers," CEO Ooi Say Teng said. On the insurer's outlook for 2010, Ooi said the group hopes to maintain doubledigit growth in regular premiums. (BT)

Faber Group is toying with the idea of venturing into the healthcare business by owning hospitals in the future to broaden its income streams, said MD Adnan Mohammad. “We would like to see a lot of non-organic growth and we are not discounting M&As to expand the facility management business,” he said. Abroad, Adnan said Faber’s track record in the UAE would serve as a springboard for it to tap into the other GCC countries. (Financial Daily)

CB Industrial Product (CBIP) is not ruling out the possibility of expanding its plantation operation by acquiring additional land in neighbouring countries using funds from its private placement exercise. “There are plenty of growth opportunities for palm mill construction in these markets,” MD Lim Chai Beng said. CBIP’s targets would naturally be plantation land and assets in either Kalimantan or Papua New Guinea, where the company has existing operations. (Financial Daily)

20091207 1022 FCPO Weekly Chart Study.

Crude palm oil futures closed the week firmer with price break and closed above the double bottom pattern resistant level. Both the Bollinger band and MACD indicators has recorded a positive reading for an upward movement but the only concern here would be the latest weekly candle bar closed a little above the upper Bollinger band telling us that price could been a little over extended and should price in the coming week traded way above the upper band, a pull back effect is likely to take place. Overall a bullish weekly chart for FCPO.

20091207 1002 FKLI Weekly Chart Study.

Weekly chart wise, FKLI still holding itself above the 1256 support level and ended the week still above middle Bollinger band with the band width contracted marginally = market are likely to trade side way range bound with upside biased. MACD Histrogram continue to move downward = buyers are not interested to participate in the market. Looking at the weekly chart, price have started to trade below the plotted upward trend line but is still supported by the horizontal support line. Without any fresh leads and catalyst, market could possible test the middle Bollinger band support level should price break below the horizontal support line.