Wednesday, December 1, 2010

20101201 1822 FCPO EOD Daily Chart Study.

FCPO closed : 3486, changed : +74 points, volume : lower.
Bollinger band reading : upside biased.
MACD Histrogram : rising, buyer taking exposure.
Support : 3470, 3450, 3420, level.
Resistant : 3500, 3550, 3620 level.
Comment :
Weather concern triggered a new 28 months high FCPO rallied recorded substantial gain with lower volume transacted on the first day of 6th Indonesia palm oil conference as soy oil and crude oil also traded firmer. Daily chart formed an up bar candle surged and closed near upper Bollinger band level with the reading remained suggesting an upside biased market development.
When to buy : buy at support and weakness with quick cut loss and profit target.
When to sell : sell at resistant or strength with quick cut loss and profit target.

20101201 1743 FKLI EOD Daily Chart Study.

FKLI closed : 1485, changed : -3.5 points,  volume : higher.
Bollinger band reading : side way range bound downside biased.
MACD Histrogram : resume lower, seller stay cautiously in the market.
Support : 1485, 1470, 1458, 1445 level.
Resistant : 1500, 1530, 1550 level.
Comment :
FKLI closed recorded small decline with higher volume changed hand as major regional market traded lower in the morning session and rebounded to record gain for the afternoon session with the main focus now in tonight US economy data. Daily chart formed a long lower shadow down doji bar candle after market opened and tested lower support level near lower Bollinger band level and rebounded upward to closed off the low with the reading still suggesting a side way range bound downside biased market development.
When to buy : buy at support or weakness with quick cut loss and profit target.
When to sell : sell at resistant or strength with quick cut loss and profit target.

20101201 1128 Global Economics News.

U.S: Consumer confidence rises to five-month high in November , a signal the biggest part of the economy may pick up strength. The Conference Board's confidence index increased to 54.1 from a revised 49.9 in October. Measures of employment and income expectations improved. (Source: Bloomberg)

U.S: Home prices in 20 cities rose in September at the slowest pace in eight months, showing the latest slump in sales is destabilizing housing. The S&P/Case-Shiller index of property values climbed 0.6% YoY from September 2009, the smallest gain since January, the last time prices declined year over year. (Source: Bloomberg)

Germany: Unemployment fell for a 17th month in November as business optimism improved , underscoring the gulf between Europe's biggest economy and peripheral nations struggling to cut debt. The number of people out of work declined a seasonally adjusted 9,000 to 3.14 million, the lowest since December 1992. The adjusted jobless rate remained at 7.5 %. (Source: Bloomberg)

Portugal: Rating may be cut by S&P on austerity plan concern . S&P said in a report that it placed Portugal's A- long-term and A-2 short-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings on "CreditWatch" with "negative implications." The lowered growth projection reflects Portugal's inability to reduce its current-account deficit, the New York-based ratings firm said. (Source: Bloomberg)

Japan: Industrial production fell for a fifth month in October as a slowdown in global demand crimps exports and the government's stimulus effects wear off. Factory output declined 1.8% MoM from September, when it dropped 1.6% MoM, the Trade Ministry said in Tokyo. (Source: Bloomberg)

Japan: Unemployment rate in October unexpectedly rose as employers cut payrolls the most since May, indicating a weakening in the job market as the expiry of stimulus programs weighs on domestic demand. The jobless rate climbed to 5.1% from 5% in September, the statistics bureau said in Tokyo. (Source: Bloomberg)

S. Korea: Industrial output rose less than estimated , reducing the case for the central bank to raise interest rates for a third time by year-end. Output advanced 13.5% YoY in October. Production fell 4.2% MoM on a monthly basis, the third straight decline. (Source: Bloomberg)

S. Korea: Consumer prices rose 3.3% YoY in November after increasing 4.1% YoY in October. Prices fell 0.6% MoM from October. (Source: Bloomberg)

China: Hong Kong to face higher inflation on capital inflows
Hong Kong will face higher inflation next year as it attracts more capital because of US monetary easing policies, and the appreciating Chinese Yuan increases food costs, Financial Secretary John Tsang said. The US measures may also boost energy prices, and the city’s government is “closely monitoring” the impact on lowincome residents, Tsang said. Hong Kong, which pegs its currency to the US dollar, imports most of its fresh food from China. Hong Kong policy makers have said the US Federal Reserve’s plan to buy USD600 billion of Treasury securities will contribute to an asset bubble risk in the city because of excess liquidity. (Bloomberg)

Japan:Output drop, jobless rise portend contraction
Japan’s industrial production decreased and the unemployment rate unexpectedly climbed in October, providing early signs that the country’s economy will likely shrink this quarter. Factory output declined 1.8% from September, the sharpest drop since Feb 2009, the Trade Ministry said. The jobless rate increased to 5.1% from 5% and the economy lost 180,000 jobs, the most since May, according to the statistics bureau. Bond prices rose. The figures add to evidence that Japan’s economy may contract for the first time in five quarters, as the expiration of stimulus measures and weak exports prompt companies such as Toyota Motor Corp. to reduce production. (Bloomberg)

India: Economy expands faster-than-estimated 8.9%
India’s economy grew more than economists estimated last quarter, adding to evidence of a strengthening in domestic demand that’s stoked inflation by placing strains on the nation’s transport and power systems. GDP rose 8.9% in the three months through September from a year earlier, matching the revised pace of growth in the previous quarter, the Central Statistical Organization said. That was above the 8.2% median estimate of 30 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. (Bloomberg)

Australia: 3Q current-account deficit widens
Australia’s current-account deficit widened in the three months through September as a strengthening currency lowered exports. The shortfall on goods, services and investment increased to AUD 7.83bn (USD 7.55bn) from a revised AUD 5.41bn in the second quarter, the Bureau of Statistics said. The median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of 22 economists was for an AUD 6.6bn gap. The value of exports dropped from July through September for the first time in a year as the Australian currency climbed 15% over the period, the secondbiggest quarterly gain in more than three decades. (Bloomberg)

EU: Faces more bailouts as Irish contagion spreads: euro credit
The failure of the Irish rescue to stem a selloff across euro-region bond markets may spell more bailouts to come, starting with Portugal. The costs to insure Portuguese debt against default rose to a record and Spanish bonds extended declines after sliding the most since the euro’s debut, highlighting investor concerns that officials lack the tools to contain a debt crisis threatening the currency’s survival. The extra yield that investors demand to hold Italian debt over German 10-year bonds rose to the highest in more than 13 years. (Bloomberg)

EU: German Unemployment Falls to Lowest Level in 18 Years
German unemployment fell for a 17th month in November as business optimism improved, underscoring the gulf between Europe’s biggest economy and peripheral nations struggling to cut debt. The number of people out of work declined a seasonally adjusted 9,000 to 3.14 million, the lowest since Dec 1992, the Nuremberg-based Federal Labor Agency said. Economists forecast a decrease of 20,000, according to the median of 31 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. The adjusted jobless rate remained at 7.5%. (Bloomberg)

US: Businesses in US grow at faster pace than forecast
Businesses in the US expanded at a faster pace than forecast in November, signaling the world’s largest economy was speeding up heading into 2011. The Institute for Supply Management-Chicago Inc. said its business barometer rose to 62.5 this month, the highest since April, from 60.6 in October. Figures greater than 50 signal expansion. The median forecast of 63 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News projected the gauge would fall to 59.9. Manufacturing may keep accelerating as exports grow and companies invest in new equipment, sustaining the recovery from the worst recession since the 1930s. (Bloomberg)

20101201 1127 Malaysia Corporate News.

Bursa: Set to join Asean Exchange Linkage with SGX & SET . Bursa Malaysia, Singapore Stock Exchange (SGX) and the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) have joined the Asean Exchange Linkage (AEL), to be launched during 2H11. Philippines stock exchange would join by 2012. The AEL would ease access to Asean exchanges and increase market utility with trade outside and intra-Asean. AEL would also allow cross border offering of collective investment schemes. (Source: The Star)

Funds: Asean infrastructure fund by early 2011 . The Asean Infrastructure Fund (AIF) would be initiated during 1Q11. The AIF is a special purpose vehicle set up to support infrastructure projects in the region. Malaysia had invested USD 150m to the fund, which would have a target fund size of USD800m. Asean has pledged USD 335m to the fund so far. (Source: The Star)

Market: Second Capital Market Masterplan to be unveiled in 1Q11 . The second Capital Market Masterplan (CMP2), currently in the final stage of completion, will be unveiled during 1Q11. The 10-year masterplan is expected to address the development of a private pension fund framework, increase retail participation in the local stock exchange and strengthen corporate governance. (Source: The Star)

Petrol Subsidy: Hike in Ron97 price . The price of Ron97 petrol will increase by 15sen per litre to RM2.30 effective today. The hike is because of an increase in the price of crude oil in the world market. The price of Ron95 will remain at RM1.85 per litre. It was announced by the government on July16, that the price of Ron97 will be subjected to a managed float to reflect the price of petrol in the global market. (Source: Business Times)

Politics: Umno's elections postponed . Umno has postponed next year's party elections by 18 months, a move that it had adopted in the previous three general elections. Umno's party president Datuk Seri Najib Razak said changes in the party line-up would be announced by year-end. The postponement of the party elections is allowed under the party constitution and was intended to focus on strengthening party machinery and to avoid friction. (Source: Business Times)

Economy: Fall in unemployment rates during 3Q10 . The jobless rate dropped to 3.2% in 3Q10 from 3.4% in 2Q10 as the numbers of unemployed dropped to 376,000 in 3Q10 from 389,000 in 2Q10. The monthly unemployment rate remained at 3.1 % in September 2010 (3.1% in August and 3.3% in July). (Source: Department of Statistics Malaysia)

RM700m boost for Iskandar Malaysia
The Government has agreed to allocate an additional RM700m for rolling plans for Iskandar Malaysia over the next two years. Johor Mentri Besar Datuk Abdul Ghani Othman said the amount is an addition to the RM339m set aside to the southern Johor growth region during the recent tabling of Budget 2011. "Yesterday, Prime Minister Datuk Najib Razak agreed to add funds for rolling plans with another RM700m for Iskandar Malaysia programs," Sources said the funds may be for various infrastructure projects and new investments which have not been announced by the Government. (BT)

SapuraCrest JV lands USD160m Aussie job
SapuraCrest Petroleum and its JV partner have landed a USD160m (RM504m) contract from PTTEP Australasia (Ashmore Cartier) Pty Ltd (PTTEPAAA) for the provision of offshore transportation and construction activities for PTEPAAA’s Monara development in Australia. The Montara project is located in the Southern Timor Sea approximately 650km west of Darwin. SapuraCrest informed Bursa Malaysia yesterday that SapuraAcergy SB (SASB) a JV company it equally owns with Acergy SA, had received a letter of award for the contract on 25 Nov. (Financial Daily)

MTD Cap stands to rake in RM150m from Philippine toll hike
MTD Capital Bhd, Malaysia’s second largest highway operator and owner, could rake in at least some RM150m in annual toll revenue from the South Luzon Expressway (SLEX) in the Philippines next year if higher toll rates are implemented in January 2011. The Philippines business paper BusinessWorld, quoting Julius G Corpuz, an official with the Philippines Toll Regulatory Board (TRB), reported that the implementation of higher toll rates could happen in the first week of January next year. (Financial Daily)

SC to release statement on Sime probe soon The Securities Commission (SC) will release a statement on its ongoing investigation of Sime Darby Bhd soon, its chairman Tan Sri Zarinah Anwar said yesterday. The SC and Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission (MACC) are investigating Sime Darby after receiving a forensic audit over its RM2.1bn losses at its energy and utilities unit. (BT)

Vale likely to invest RM467m in Malaysia next year
As much as USD148m (RM467m) of Brazil's mining giant Vale International SA's capital expenditure (capex) for 2011 has been earmarked for investments in Malaysia. Vale has set a total capex of USD24bn, or (RM76bn), for next year, according to the latest information posted on its website. The Malaysian investments will involve the construction of a maritime terminal and a distribution centre to transport and distribute iron ore from Teluk Rubiah, near Lumut, Perak. However, the project has yet to be approved by directors of Vale, according to the latest statement dated 28 Oct. As a major player aiming for a larger footprint in the Asian region, Vale had reportedly been said to be planning to invest up to RM9bn in the iron ore project in Perak which, when materialised, will act as its hub for its Asian operations. The investment will also be one of Perak's largest investments to date when it materialises. In the statement, Vale said actual start-up for the Teluk Rubiah project was planned for the second half of 2013, without providing more details. (StarBiz)

20101201 0843 Global Market News.

Oil steady near $84; US inventories, Europe in focus
SINGAPORE, Dec 1 (Reuters) - Oil was steady near $84, capped by a stronger dollar as financial markets  remained focused on Europe's debt problems, while an industry  report signalled a drawdown in U.S. fuel inventories may be  slowing.
"Weak equities and dollar strength capped the upside as  fundamentals suggest physical supplies would remain adequate,"  said Stefan Graber, a commodities analyst with Credit Suisse  in Singapore. "In the U.S., inventories of crude oil,  distillates and gasoline all remain above their five-year  average." 

POLL-US crude stockpiles seen down on lower imports
NEW YORK, Nov 30 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil inventories fell last week as imports dipped, an expanded Reuters poll of 18 analysts showed on Tuesday.
Fourteen of the analysts expected that crude stockpiles fell in the week to Nov. 26, with the average forecast at 900,000 barrels, the poll showed.

US wheat rises for 5th session on weather worries
SYDNEY, Dec 1 (Reuters) - U.S. wheat futures gained more  than half a percent, rising for the fifth  straight session on concerns that adverse weather in the United States and Australia will hurt crops
"The two-week forecast is showing a lot more rain than it was a couple of days ago so it does not look good," said Adam  Davis, the senior grain trader at Merricks Capital in Melbourne.

US farm exports on track for record FY2011 - USDA
WASHINGTON, Nov 30 (Reuters) - U.S. farm exports are forecast at a record $126.5 billion in fiscal year 2011, an increase of $17.8 billion from a year ago, the Agriculture Department said on Tuesday.
USDA increased its export estimate for 2011 by $13.5 billion from its August forecast to reflect an increase in a range of crops including soybeans, cotton, wheat and beef.

Gold near 2-week high, bullion in euro hits record
SINGAPORE, Dec 1 (Reuters) - Gold held near its highest in  more than two weeks as growing fears about  Portugal's debt pummeled the euro, sending bullion priced in  the single currency to a record high.
"Consequently, we have raised our 2011 gold price forecast to $1,500 an ounce from $1,245 an ounce previously. If we see the gold rally extending in 2012, it will however take place at a more moderate pace. We expect gold to average around 1,600 an ounce in 2012," BNP Paribas said in a report.   

Euro, stocks wobble as euro zone debt worries deepen
SINGAPORE, Dec 1 (Reuters) - The euro slipped further on  Wednesday and stocks in Asia were struggling, despite  stronger-than-expected manufacturing data from China, as fears  of a wider euro zone debt crisis grew.
"You really need some aggressive action from the  authorities in Europe to try and calm nerves and that's really  the key at this stage," Greg Gibbs, a strategist at RBS in  Sydney, said. 

OIL: Crude steady; US crude stocks, Europe eyed
SINGAPORE, Dec 1 (Reuters) - Oil was steady near $84 on  Wednesday as financial markets remained focused on Europe's  debt problems, while an industry report signalled that a  drawdown in U.S. fuel inventories may be slowing.
Inventories of distillates including heating oil diesel unexpectedly rose by 224,000 barrels last week in top consumer  the United States, according to an industry report from the  American Petroleum Institute (API).

COMMODITY MARKETS: Precious metals benefit, oil suffers from weak euro
NEW YORK, Nov 30 (Reuters) - Gold and silver jumped on Tuesday, ending a volatile month higher as persistent worries about euro zone sovereign debt contagion prompted safe-haven buying, but oil and some grains slipped as the euro slumped to 2-1/2-month lows.
"We continue to see a stream of data that I think is very constructive for the economy and for commodity prices. People are putting a little bit of risk back on today," said Matthew Zeman, head of trading with LaSalle Futures Group in Chicago.
GLOBAL MARKETS: Euro sinks on Portugal debt woes; stocks down
NEW YORK, Nov 30 (Reuters) - Growing fears about Portugal's debt drove the euro to a 10-week low against the dollar on Tuesday, while U.S. stocks fell for a third straight day even as the U.S. economy showed some encouraging signs.
"The market has taken what to happened to Ireland as a road stop, not the final destination," said Vincent Boberski, senior vice president at Vining Sparks in Memphis, Tennessee.

Bloomberg: Japanese stock futures and Australian shares fell on concern Europe’s debt crisis is worsening and as Standard & Poor’s said it may cut Portugal’s credit ratings.

FOREX-Euro at 2-mo low vs dollar as bailout fears abound
NEW YORK, Nov 29 (Reuters) - The euro hit a two-month low against the dollar on Monday and may face further losses after Ireland's rescue did little to erase investors' fears that another euro-zone economy may require a bailout.
At one point, the euro fell as low as $1.3065, its worst showing against the dollar since September. It last changed hands down 0.9 percent at $1.3121.

PRECIOUS-Gold in euros sets new highs on euro zone jitters
LONDON, Nov 30 (Reuters) - Gold climbed on Tuesday and set fresh record highs in euro terms, benefiting from safe-haven buying as a weekend rescue package for Ireland failed to assuage investors' jitters over further debt contagion in the euro zone.
The euro hit its lowest in 10 weeks against the dollar.

Debt contagion fears hurt European markets
LONDON, Nov 30 (Reuters) - The euro hit a 10-week low against the dollar and world stocks struggled as euro zone debt problems weighed on investor sentiment even after Ireland's bailout.
"Speculators are targeting Italy and Spain and are not going to stop. We haven't seen any selling from real money (accounts) yet, they're all very nervous but haven't started selling, when they do it's going to be a wash," one Italian trader said.

20101201 0842 Soy Oil & Palm Oil Related News.

Soy product futures rose in unison with soybeans Tuesday. Soyoil was the upside leader, underpinned by oil/meal spreading, with supportive world vegoil price influences amid strong China demand buoying global prices, analysts said. CBOT Jan soyoil ended 0.78c or 1.6% higher at 51.00c per pound, and Jan soymeal traded $2.10 or 0.6% higher at $340.70 a short ton. (Source: CME)

Argentina Farm Equipment Sales Soar Amid Farm Boom (Source: CME)
Argentine farm machinery makers are expected to see record sales this year as the country's farmers take advantage of a bumper crop and high grain prices to buy new equipment. "This is the best year ever," Jose Alustiza, president of farm machinery chamber CAFMA and manufacturer Maizco SA, said in a telephone interview. Sales of domestically made farm equipment are on track to reach $1.38 billion this year, up from the previous record of $1.35 billion in 2007, he said. Argentina is among the world's top exporters of soybeans, corn and wheat, and record grain harvests last season proved a boon to farmers. Farmers, flush with cash, are splashing out to buy new equipment with the latest technological advances such as precision fertilizer and pesticide dispersers, Alustiza said. Machinery sales have also benefited from subsidized loans provided by Argentina's state-run Banco de la Nacion, he added.
U.S.-based Deere & Co., one of Argentina's leading providers of farm machinery, said last week that it expects sharply higher farm income in Brazil and Argentina next year thanks to higher crop prices. "We've had an incredible year," Carlos Castellani, president of one of the country's largest makers of planting equipment, Apache SA, said in a press release. For privately-held Apache, sales really took off in the second half of the year thanks to record soybean planting and high prices for the grain, Castellani said. But locally-made machinery sales is just the tip of the iceberg. Only 25% of the harvesters sold in Argentina each year are domestically-made, as are about 30% of the tractors, according to Alustiza. Farm machinery imports rose 70% on the year to $622 million during the first eight months of 2010, according to local research firm IES Consultores. About 53% of imports came from Brazil, followed by 17% from U.S. and 7.5% from Germany.
Most of the harvesters and tractors imported by Argentina each year come from Brazil, where both local and international manufactures such as Deere & Co have plants. However, the most powerful machines are still made in the U.S. and Europe.

Wheat up for 4th day on weather concerns;corn, soy steady
SINGAPORE, Nov 30 (Reuters) - Chicago wheat futures  bounced half a percent, rising for a fourth  straight session as adverse weather across the U.S. winter  crop areas and excessive rains in Australia continued to  support the market.
"The headline story for wheat has certainly been in  excessive rains in Australia, also they are also talking about  cold weather and not too much rain for hard red belt in the  U.S.," said Brett Cooper, a senior manager of markets at  FCStone Australia.

Palm oil hits 28-mth high on demand, weather
KUALA LUMPUR, Nov 30 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil  rallied to a 28-month high as traders bet on  continued strong export demand amid lingering concerns over  erratic weather in edible oil producing regions.
"The market always gets optimistic ahead of a price  conference like that, but this time, there is some credibility  as demand is strong and production is under pressure," said a  trader with a foreign commodities broker.

Malaysia's Nov palm oil exports up 19.2 pct-SGS
KUALA LUMPUR, Nov 30 (Reuters) - Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for November rose 19.2 percent to 1,569,314 tonnes from 1,316,908 tonnes shipped during November, cargo surveyor Societe Generale de Surveillance said on Thursday.

Argentina soy crushing rises 47 percent in October
BUENOS AIRES, Nov 29 (Reuters) - Argentine soy crushing rose 47 percent year-on-year in October to 3.56 million tonnes, boosted by the record 2009/10 harvest, the government said in its latest report.
Argentina is the world's top supplier of soyoil and soymeal and the third-biggest exporter of unprocessed beans.

Rain to soak Brazil CW soy, No. 3 state still dry
SAO PAULO, Nov 29 (Reuters) - Widespread rain is headed for Brazil's No. 1 soybean producing state of Mato Grosso, which will favor the germination of the newly planted crop in the center-western state, forecasters Somar said on Monday.
Mato Grosso, which accounts for a quarter of Brazil's soy output, saw 37mm (1.5 inches) of rain over the weekend in its central growing region. This will bring November rainfall totals to 184mm, 22 percent shy of the 236mm average that falls for all of November.

China seen importing little corn, more soy in 2011
HONG KONG, Nov 30 (Reuters) - China will import only a small volume of corn in 2011 amid a record domestic harvest, but imports of soybeans will continue growing in coming years, the head of China's top grain trader told Reuters.
Frank Ning, chairman of COFCO Ltd , did not foresee any dramatic food shortages in the world's most populous country, even though food prices helped drive the country's inflation to a 25-month high in October.

Italy biodiesel output to recover 2011, 2012
MILAN, Nov 29 (Reuters) - Domestically produced biodiesel will cover 40 percent of Italy's obligatory sales of green fuel with the rest covered by cheaper imports, a top industry official said on Monday, signalling a fall in output.
Italian biodiesel makers, who use mostly imported raw materials including palm oil and rapeseed, have been hit hard this year by inflows of cheap imported fuel which sometimes costs less than their raw materials, industry experts have said.