Wednesday, October 13, 2010

20101013 1842 FCPO EOD Daily Chart Study.

FCPO closed : 2930, changed : +30 points, volume : lower.
Bollinger band reading : upside biased.
MACD Histrogram : getting higher, buyer still rule.
Support : 2900, 2850, 2800 level.
Resistant : 3020, 3050, 3070 level.
Comment :
FCPO testing higher ground again recorded gain after yesterday profit taking decline with lesser volume transaction traded in tandem with a rebounding soy oil prices. Daily chart formed an up long lower shadow doji bar candle as market opened higher and testing 2900 support level and bounced upward closing right above upper Bollinger band. Reading wise, market still likely to trade upside biased with possible pullback correction.
When to buy : buy at support and weakness with larger cut loss and profit target.
When to sell : sell at resistant or strength with quick cut loss and profit target.

20101013 1732 FKLI EOD Daily Chart Study.

FKLI closed : 1492, changed : +12.5 points, volume : lower.
Bollinger band reading : upside biased.
MACD Histrogram : turned upward, buyer defended well.
Support : 1485, 1470, 1458 level.
Resistant : 1500, 1530, 1550 level.
Comment :
FKLI jump up recovered and traded higher with lesser volume transaction after positive regional market development but was doing 4 points discount compare to cash market. Daily chart formed a up bar candle testing higher resistant level with the Bollinger band expanding suggesting an upside biased market development.
When to buy : buy at support or weakness with quick cut loss and profit target.
When to sell : sell at resistant or strength with quick cut loss and profit target.

20101013 0950 Global Economics News.

Singapore: Economy probably slowed as manufacturing weakened
Singapore’s economy probably cooled after a record first-half expansion as manufacturing growth eased, reducing pressure on the central bank to allow a faster pace of currency appreciation. GDP growth slowed to 10.8% in the three months ended Sept. 30 from a year earlier, from 18.8% in the second quarter. The economy shrank an annualized 15.7% from the previous three months, after expanding 24% in the April-to-June period. (Bloomberg)

Thailand: Sets debt tax to curb inflows, tame baht
The Thai government agreed to impose a 15% withholding tax on interest and capital gains earned by foreign investors on Thai bonds, the latest bid by an emerging economy to tame its surging currency. From export-dependent Thailand to fast-growing China and Brazil, governments are moving to rein in their currencies as investors, turning their backs on low interest rates in the developed world, pour money into higher-yielding market. (Financial Daily)

India: Industrial production growth slows to 5.6%
India’s industrial production growth slowed to a 15-month low in August, adding to evidence that inflation and the impact of five interest-rate increases this year are prompting companies to curb output. Factory, utilities and mines output rose 5.6% from a year earlier after a revised 15.2% increase in July, the statistics office said in New Delhi. (Bloomberg)

UK: Inflation exceeds 3% limit for seventh month
UK inflation exceeded the government’s 3% limit for a seventh month in September as higher clothing and food costs kept up price pressures in the economy. Consumer prices rose 3.1% from a year earlier, the Office for National Statistics said in London. Clothing and footwear costs jumped a record 6.4% on the month, led by women’s coats and other outerwear. (Bloomberg)

UK: BOE musn’t tighten monetary policy early, Miles Says
Bank of England policy maker David Miles said officials must not withdraw stimulus too soon, signaling that they may have to ignore an inflation rate that still exceeds the government’s 3% limit. “The bank faces the risk of tightening monetary policy too soon,” Miles said. “This risk is one that I would consider small if it were clear that the economy was on a typical upswing of the sort of cycle we used to think normal. But I do not see many of the signs that are usual in a normal upswing.” (Bloomberg)

20101013 0949 Malaysia Corporate News.

BNM signs MoU with France
Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) and Banque de France have signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) to promote greater cooperation in the area of financial services between the two central banks. The MoU aims to foster long-term strategic developments in conventional and Islamic finance between Malaysia and Finance. The three key areas include enhancing mutual cooperation on capacity building and human capital development in the financial services industry. It also aims to facilitate and promote development of an effective and conducive financial market infrastructure and also enhances cross-border financial activities, which include promoting consistent application of cross-border Islamic financial transactions. (FInancialDaily)

New trade Act in force next year
Malaysia will implement the Strategic Trade Act (STA) 2010 on 11 July next year to boost foreign investors' confidence and help prevent terrorist activities in the country. International Trade and Industry Minister Datuk Seri Mustapa Mohamed said the Act, which was gazetted in June this year, will provide control over export, transhipment, transit and brokering of strategic items. These include arms and related materials as well as activities that will, or may, facilitate the design, development and production of weapons of mass destruction. "Starting this month, all exporters and brokers dealing with strategic items need to register with the ministry through an online system. We expect about 5,000 companies to be involved, and about 30% of the country's total exports will be involved, in the Act's implementation," Mustapa told reporters. (BT)

Petronas Chemicals IPO to raise US$4b
Petronas Chemicals Group (Petronas Chemicals) is looking to raise as much as US$4bn (RM12bn) in a Malaysian initial public offering (IPO), exceeding earlier estimates of over US$2bn (RM6bn) as it hopes to tap strong global investor demand for Asian stocks. The IPO for Petronas Chemicals, owned by oil giant Petroliam Nasional (Petronas), could become the largest share offering in the country, exceeding Maxis' US$3.3bn (RM10bn) listing last year. It follows Singapore wealth fund GIC's logistic unit's US$3bn (RM9bn) IPO and may overlap with American International Group's planned listing of its Asian life insurance business AIA in a deal worth over US$15bn (RM47bn). Petronas Chemicals, which manufactures olefins and polyolefins, fertilisers, industrial and specialty chemicals, will have started "pre-marketing" its IPO yesterday with formal investor roadshows slated to begin on 27 October. The deal is expected to be priced on 12 November, according to an e-mail sent to investors by one of the advisers. (BT)

Maybulk teams up with Commonwealth Shipping
Billionaire Robert Kuok Hock Nien’s Malayssian Bulk Carriers (Maybulk) has teamed up with Mexico-based Commonwealth Shipping Company Inc to penetrate the market in the US and the Gulf of Mexico. Towards this end, Maybulk’s wholly owned unit, Lightwell Shipping Inc and Commonwealth Shipping formed an equally controlled, joint venture company Progress Shipping Pte Ltd in Singapore to undertake the business. The joint venture intends to acquire bulkcarrier(s) for trades within the US Gulf and Mexico region. (FinancialDaily)

HELP to set up fourth campus at Iskandar
HELP International Corp has signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Seri Alam Properties SB, the developer of Bandar Seri Alam and a wholly-owned subsidiary of United Malayan Land (UMLand). Under the terms of the MoU, Seri Alam will develop and lease to HELP an educational centre to be used as its Johor campus. The campus site is next to the proposed Business Incubator Research and Development Park and will be developed into four phases. (MalaysianReserve)

Star announces special dividend
Star Publications (M) announced yesterday a special dividend comprising 47.9 sen per RM1 ordinary share, less tax and 4.7 sen per RM1 ordinary share, tax exempt for the year ending 31 Dec, 2010. The entitlement date is Nov 10. This brings the total gross dividends for the current financial year ending 31 Dec to 63.1 sen per share. For the financial year ended 31 Dec, 2009, total dividend payout amounted to 21 sen per share. (Starbiz)

Khazanah said to sell RM1.7bn CIMB shares
Khazanah Nasional, Malaysia’s sovereign wealth fund, sold RM1.17bn worth of shares in CIMB Group Holdings, two people familiar with the sale said. Khazanah’s shares were sold at a 2% discount to Monday’s closing price of RM8.15. (MalaysianReserve)  

20101013 0944 Global Market News.

Oct. 13 (Bloomberg) -- China, the world’s biggest exporter, posted a $16.9 billion trade surplus for September, capping the largest quarterly excess since the financial crisis in 2008 as pressure mounts for a stronger yuan. Exports rose 25.1 percent from a year earlier and imports climbed 24.1 percent, the customs bureau said on its website today. The surplus compares with the $17.8 billion median estimate of 24 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. In August, the excess was $20 billion.

OIL: Crude surpasses $82 on hopes for stimulus
SINGAPORE, Oct 13 (Reuters) - Oil rose past $82 on Wednesday as expectations of economic stimulus by the United States combined with a surprise jump in Japanese machinery orders, raising hopes of a balanced market as OPEC maintains production levels. Oil ministers arriving in Vienna for OPEC's meeting on Thursday, the first in seven months, signalled the producer group would keep output targets steady. Saudi Arabia's Ali al-Naimi this week said the oil market was "well balanced".

PRECIOUS-Gold eases below $1,345/oz as dollar recovers
LONDON, Oct 12 (Reuters) - Gold eased in Europe on Tuesday as the dollar rebounded on the back of uncertainty over the extent of quantitative easing expected from U.S. authorities, denting interest in the metal as a haven from weak currencies.
"There is some dollar strength, (with) strong support for the dollar at $1.40 against the euro," he said.

FOREX-Dollar up before FOMC minutes; some wary on QE size
LONDON, Oct 12 (Reuters) - The dollar rose against the euro and a basket of currencies on Tuesday on a short-covering bounce ahead of the release of the U.S. Federal Reserve's meeting minutes, but gave way versus the yen to hover near 15-year lows.
"The market is moving to pare back expectations of QE by the Fed," said Lee Hardman, currency economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi, adding other higher-yielding assets such as stocks and commodities were also seeing a correction.

Stocks, commodities fall ahead of FOMC minutes
LONDON, Oct 12 (Reuters) - World stocks and commodity prices fell on Tuesday before Federal Reserve minutes that should give clues on the timing and size of more U.S. stimulus, while the dollar hovered near a 15-year low against the yen.
"The market is moving to pare back expectations of QE by the Fed," said Lee Hardman, currency economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi.

20101013 0941 Soy Oil & Palm Oil Related News.

Corn falls 0.4 pct after strong rally, harvest weighs
SINGAPORE, Oct 13 (Reuters) - Chicago corn futures fell 0.4 percent  while soybeans edged lower, snapping a four-day winning streak as the record pace of the U.S. harvest and forecasts of crop-friendly weather in Brazil weighed on the markets.
"It is certainly going to be difficult for corn to continue at the breakneck speed that we have seen in the past few sessions," said Luke Mathews, commodity strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

China Sept soy imports at 4.64 mln T-Customs
BEIJING, Oct 13 (Reuters) - China, the world's largest soy buyer, imported 4.63 million tonnes of the oilseed in September, down 2.7 percent from August, but a rise of 68.5 percent from a year-ago period, official Customs figures showed on Wednesday.
The September figure brings China's total imports in 2009/2010 (Oct/Sept) marketing year exceeding 50 million tonnes, a record volume or a rise of 22 percent from the previous year following an ongoing expansion of the crushing industry. 

Soy product futures ended higher, bouncing in unison with soybeans. Tighter global supply outlooks for soybeans fueled the markets price strength, with both soyoil and soymeal rising near the previous day's session highs near the close. December soyoil settled 0.60 cents or 1.3% higher at 46.95 cents per pound. December soymeal ended $6.00 or 1.8% higher at $333.10 per short ton.(Source: CME)

Cargill 1Q Earnings Up 68% On Volatile Commodity Trade (Source: CME)
Cargill Inc. said its fiscal first-quarter earnings jumped 68% as the agribusiness giant benefited from volatile commodity markets. The company reported net earnings of $883 million in the quarter ended Aug. 31, up from $525 million during the same period a year ago. Excluding Mosaic Co., a fertilizer producer in which Cargill owns a two-thirds stake, the company earned $693 million, up 51% from $458 million a year ago. The Minneapolis-based company said first-quarter revenue rose 6% to $27.8 billion.
Chairman and Chief Executive Greg Page said the results were led by its food ingredients and commodity trading and processing segments, which were helped by volatility across the agricultural commodity sector. "The change put Cargill's global breadth, trading and risk management skills more acutely into play," Page said. A severe drought in Russia this summer, which decimated the wheat crop there and prompted an export ban, sent grain prices surging during the summer. Analysts say the export ban has been a boost to grain traders and merchandisers with a global reach, as customers have to look elsewhere to source supplies.
Concerns about a disappointing U.S. corn crop have added to the volatile atmosphere in global grain markets. In times of volatility, large grain merchandisers such as Cargill, with a global presence and ample supplies in storage, are able to increase sales by serving buyers who are looking globally for the best deal on grain prices and transportation costs. Cargill, the largest private U.S. company by sales, is one of the world's largest commodity processors and traders, with other activities ranging from food ingredients to financial services and steel-making. The company said its origination, or grain-sourcing, as well as its processing results "rose significantly" in the quarter. Cargill processes grain into ethanol as well as products used in food and livestock feed.

Argentina Soyoil Exporters View End To China Spat With Wary Eye (Source: CME)
Argentina's soyoil exporters are cautiously optimistic that China is poised to resume its purchases of soyoil, but they are waiting to see an actual sale go through before celebrating an end to the six-month old trade dispute. An executive at one of Argentina's leading grain and vegetable oil said he is waiting to "see it to believe it." In April, China--the world's largest importer of the edible oil--blocked imports from Argentine--the largest exporter--citing purity standards. But many saw the move as retaliation for a host of anti-dumping duties imposed by Argentina on imported Chinese goods. Fueling scepticism over the resumption of soyoil sales is the fact that there seems to have been no progress in resolving the underlying conflict over trade barriers. In fact, Argentina has expanded the number of Chinese products hit by anti-dumping penalties in recent months.
Despite the tension, the Chinese appear to be more concerned with their domestic food prices. China is facing high inflation and Argentine soyoil is cheaper than what it is now buying from the U.S. and Brazil, said Ricardo Baccarin, vice president at local brokerage house Panagricola. A senior trader with a large Chinese grain buyer said Tuesday that China's government is clearing new soyoil imports from Argentina, although no purchases have taken place yet. China's Ministry of Commerce would support the resumption of soyoil imports from Argentina as long as there are no quality concerns, said Chen Rongkai, a ministry media official. Argentine President Cristina Fernandez celebrated the news in a twitter post on Tuesday. "If it wasn't enough, China is buying oil again," Fernandez wrote. Agriculture Minister Julian Dominguez told state news agency Telam on Monday there were signs that China would allow shipments to resume, although a foreign ministry spokesman on Tuesday declined to comment.
A resumption of sales to China would be a boon to Argentina's farmers, who were slow to sell this season and still have significant soybean stocks remaining, Panagricola's Baccarin said.

Farm Belt Bounces Back (Source: CME)
Major agricultural commodities continued their extended run-up in price, underscoring how much of America's farm belt is booming even as the overall economy continues to struggle. Contracts for the delivery of corn and soybeans into mid-2011 jumped Monday by 5% and 2%, respectively, after rising their daily permissible limits on Friday, when the U.S. Department of Agriculture sliced production estimates by small percentages. Cash cotton prices rose 3.3% Monday after a 3.9% gain Friday. They are 86% higher than a year ago. For many crops, prices are climbing even as big harvests pile up, a rare combination. Farmland values are up while those for some other kinds of real estate languish. Debt on the farm is manageable. Incomes are rising. And trade, of which many Americans are growing wary, is for agriculture a boon. Asia's economic vigor and appetites make the farm sector's reliance on exports -- once thought a vulnerability in some quarters -- a plus today.
"The farm economy is coming out of the recession far faster than the general economy," said Don Carson, a senior analyst at Susquehanna Financial Group, New York. Overall, the USDA projects net farm income to climb 24% this year to $77.1 billion, the fourth highest ever. In September, farmers were being paid 62% more for hogs than a year earlier, and 32% more for milk. The higher prices probably won't sting consumers at the dinner table as much as did a crop-price surge in 2008, when the consumer price index for food jumped 5.5%. With unemployment high and shoppers frugal, food executives are leery of trying to pass higher costs on. The USDA expects retail food prices to rise 0.5% to 1.5% this year, which would be the least since 1992, though some economists see these prices climbing 3% to 4% next year.
For taxpayers, higher commodity prices mean the government's cost of farm subsidies this year will fall to around $12 billion, about half the level in years when prices were much below targets set by Congress. Farmers this year are reaping about $4.8 billion in direct payments that aren't tied to market prices, as well as checks for such things as weather-related disasters and a land-idling conservation program. Growers' improved lot is rippling out to other industries. The boom is mending even America's tattered cotton belt, and that means long-stressed cotton farmers can buy new machinery. Hurst Farm Supply near Lubbock, Texas says sales are up 20% this year.

Corn stays near 2-yr top, soybeans catching up
SINGAPORE, Oct 12 (Reuters) - U.S. corn futures rose 1.1 percent on Tuesday, and stayed near two-year highs that followed a frenzied rally in the past two sessions after the United States painted a bleak supply outlook.
"I think it's drawing breath a little bit," Brett Cooper, senior manager for markets at FCStone Australia, said of Tuesday's corn trading.

China soyoil off 2-year highs on govt lifting import ban
KUALA LUMPUR, Oct 12 (Reuters) - China's soyoil futures hovered below two-year highs hit earlier on Tuesday as news of the government lifting a ban on Argentina soyoil partly offset the bullish soybean supply scenario.
"The market's cooling down compared to yesterday on concerns over the possibility that the government will release state reserves to cap vegetable oils prices," said Zhang Juan Cong, a vegetable oil analyst in China's Southern city of Hangzhou.

Wilmar says no major impact from moratorium
SINGAPORE/KUALA LUMPUR, Oct 12 (Reuters) - Wilmar International, the world's No.1 palm oil firm, expects Indonesia's proposed two-year ban on clearing forests to have a limited impact on its operations as land available for oil palm estates is ample.
Singapore-listed Wilmar's stand run counter to many palm oil and mining firms who fear the moratorium -- part of a $1 billion deal with Norway aimed at fighting deforestation and carbon emissions -- will curb expansion and future earnings.

China MofCom lifts Oct soy import estimate to 4.1 mln T
BEIJING, Oct 12 (Reuters) - China's commerce ministry has revised upwards its estimate for October soy imports to 4.15 million tonnes, even with its estimate for September.
The figures are both higher than imports of 2.7 million and 2.5 million tonnes, respectuvely, from a year earlier, according to official Customs data.

Ukraine to cut 10/11 sunoil exports - analyst
KIEV, Oct 12 (Reuters) - Ukraine, the world's major sunflower oil exporter, is likely to reduce its sunoil exports to 2.43 million tonnes in 2010/11 from 2.65 million a season earlier due to a lower seed quality, an analyst said on Tuesday.
UkrAgroConsult agriculture consultancy said in a report that drought, which hit the Black Sea region this summer, had also reduced Ukrainian sunflower seed harvest despite an increase in the sowing area.

China to resume soyoil imports from Argentina -traders
BEIJING, Oct 12 (Reuters) - China will resume soyoil imports from Argentina, the world's largest supplier, after a six-month de facto ban, traders told Reuters on Tuesday.
The lifting of the ban was seen by traders as a political gesture and large imports may not come in immediately because of unattractive prices and less supplies available from the South American supplier.

20101012 0918 FCPO EOD Daily Chart Study.(12 Oct 2010)

FCPO closed : 2900, changed : -30 points, volume : lower.
Bollinger band reading : correction range bound upside biased.
MACD Histrogram : getting higher, buyer empire.
Support : 2900, 2850, 2800 level.
Resistant : 3020, 3050, 3070 level.
Comment :
Profit taking FCPO eased lower after recorded new high with lower volume transaction traded. Daily chart formed a doji bar candle doing pullback correction as price over extended upward with the reading call for a correction range bound upside biased market.
When to buy : buy at support and weakness with larger cut loss and profit target.
When to sell : sell at resistant or strength with quick cut loss and profit target.

20101013 0858 FKLI EOD Daily Chart Study.(12 Oct 2010)

FKLI closed : 1479.5, changed : -11 points, volume : higher.
Bollinger band reading : correction range bound little upside biased.
MACD Histrogram : resumed lower, seller testing market again as buyer defending.
Support : 1470, 1458, 1445 level.
Resistant : 1485, 1500, 1530 level.
Comment :
Improved volume FKLI dropped lower recorded decline after opened and traded lower as trader seems choose to stay away from the market ahead of the FOMC meeting. Daily chart formed a down bar candle doing correction as price tested upper Bollinger band resistant level with the reading suggesting a correction range bound little upside biased market reading.
When to buy : buy at support or weakness with quick cut loss and profit target.
When to sell : sell at resistant or strength with quick cut loss and profit target.