Wednesday, November 7, 2012

20121107 1808 FCPO EOD Daily Chart Study.

FCPO closed : 2397, changed : +25 points, volume : higher.
Bollinger band reading : pullback correction little downside biased.
MACD Histogram : falling lower, seller taking exposure.
Support : 2400, 2350, 2300, 2250, 2230 level.
Resistance : 2400, 2450, 2490, 2520, 2550 level.
Comment :
FCPO closed recorded small gains with improved volume exchanged. Soy oil price currently trading firmer after overnight closed recorded moderate gains while crude oil price pullback lower after yesterday surge.
Concern on year end raining season will cause flood may hurt productions and higher soy oil and crude oil price sent price recovered little higher.
Daily chart wise, study revised to suggesting a pullback correction little downside biased market development.
When to buy : buy at support or weakness with quick cut loss and profit target.
When to sell : sell at resistant or strength with quick cut loss and profit target.

20121107 1729 FKLI EOD Daily Chart Study.

FKLI closed : 1640.5 changed : -1 point, volume : lower.
Bollinger band reading : little downside biased with possible pullback correction.
MACD Histogram : falling lower, seller taking exposure.
Support :  1640, 1635, 1627, 1623 level.
Resistance : 1645, 1651, 1657, 1660 level.
Comment :
FKLI closed marginally lower with lesser volume transacted doing 5 points discount compare to cash market that closed flat. Overnight U.S markets soar higher and today Asia markets ended mostly higher while European markets currently trading higher.
Continue QE3 program after Barack Obama stayed in power for the 2nd term defeated Romney sent global markets trading higher.
FKLI daily chart analysis continue calling a little downside biased market development with possible pullback correction.
When to buy : buy at support or weakness with quick cut loss and profit target.
When to sell : sell at resistance or strength with quick cut loss and profit target.

20121107 1702 Global Markets & Commodities Related News.

STOCKS: European markets opened higher after a U.S. election victory for President Barack Obama removed uncertainty over leadership of the world's biggest economy. Asian shares traded mixed. U.S. stocks climbed on Tuesday, the last day of trading before the U.S. election results came to a close, as investors looked forward to a resolution to the drawn-out race for the White House. (Reuters)

FOREX:The dollar fell broadly in Asia in reaction to U.S. President Barack Obama's election victory, as his re-election was seen ensuring that the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing will be in place.  (Reuters)

FOREX-Dollar falls after Obama wins, fiscal cliff looms
TOKYO, Nov 7 (Reuters) - The dollar fell broadly in Asia in reaction to  U.S. President Barack Obama's election victory, as his re-election was seen ensuring that the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing will be in place.
"The Fed's quantitative easing is essentially a policy to cheapen the dollar," said Yunosuke Ikeda, senior forex strategist at Nomura Securities. "Republicans have been criticising the policy, but it seems like that policy is likely to stay."

Americans hand Obama a second term, challenges await (Reuters)
President Barack Obama won a second term in the White House on Tuesday, overcoming deep doubts among voters about his handling of the U.S. economy to score a clear victory over Republican challenger Mitt Romney.

Obama win has U.S investors staring at fiscal cliff
NEW YORK, Nov 7 (Reuters) - U.S. investors will hit trading floors this morning with the same president and the same problems in gridlocked Washington. First up: a looming budget crisis that could send the U.S. economy reeling.
President Barack Obama beat back Republican challenger Mitt Romney to win a second term, but he will still have to contend with a Republican-controlled House of Representatives that could make forging a compromise on pressing issues like the coming "fiscal cliff" difficult.

In the end, Obama won on the economy
WASHINGTON, Nov 7 (Reuters) - In the end, President Barack Obama won re-election on the issue that was supposed to send him packing: the sluggish U.S. economy.
The United States is still digging out from the deepest recession in 80 years, and employers are barely adding enough jobs to keep pace with population growth. Trillions of dollars of household wealth have vanished in the housing bubble, while the gap between rich and poor widens.

Greece to vote on austerity, protests intensify (Reuters)
Greece's coalition government hopes to overcome its own divisions and defy protesters' fury at parliament's gates on Wednesday to push through an austerity package needed to secure an injection of aid and avert bankruptcy.

GRAINS:U.S. wheat futures slid, giving up some of the last two sessions' gains accumulated on concerns that adverse weather could curb supplies in top exporters the United States and Australia. Soybeans were little changed after gaining 0.8 percent on Tuesday amid lacklustre trading in agricultural markets as investors awaited the result of the U.S. presidential election. (Reuters)

ICO revises up 2011/2012 world coffee output to 134.5 mln bags (Reuters)
The International Coffee Organization has revised up its forecast for 2011/2012 world coffee output to 134.53 million bags, a rise of 0.8 percent from the previous year, citing record high output from Vietnam and Honduras.

Alberta has huge shale oil, gas resources – study (Reuters)
A new study has identified immense oil and gas resources in Alberta's emerging shale prospects, suggesting a string of recent takeovers and land buys will yield impressive production gains for some of the world's largest oil companies.

OIL:Brent futures traded around $111 per barrel as concerns about weak demand in a fragile economy and Greece outweighed supply disruption worries on escalating tension in the Middle East. Front-month Brent futures were trading up 28 cents at $111.38 per barrel.  (Reuters)

AngloGold suspends work at world's deepest mine (Reuters)
AngloGold Ashanti again suspended operations at its Mponeng mine in South Africa after a sit-in protest just two days after striking miners returned to work.

BASE METALS: London copper rose over 1 percent as the dollar slipped after television networks projected President Barack Obama winning the U.S. presidential race, spurring hopes Washington will continue with economic stimulus measures.  (Reuters)

PRECIOUS METALS: Gold extended gains after President Barack Obama was re-elected in the U.S., paving the way for continued monetary stimulus in the world's largest economy.  (Reuters)

China to resume stockpiling base metals soon -sources
HONG KONG, Nov 6 (Reuters) - China is expected to soon resume stockpiling of some base metals, including copper and aluminium, buying the metals from domestic smelters hurt by weak demand, industry sources said on Tuesday.
China is the world's top consumer of industrial metals. Its smelters, hit by slowing economic growth, have lobbied the government to revive a state-run scheme to stockpile industrial metals in hopes that it would support prices.

METALS-LME copper rises as Obama win hits dollar
SHANGHAI, Nov 7 (Reuters) - London copper rose more than 1 percent after U.S. President Barack Obama won a second term in the White House, spurring hopes Washington will continue with economic stimulus measures and pushed down the greenback.  
"Many investors are taking this to mean that the next government will continue to be more inclined towards stimulus policies and rule out any sudden monetary tightening," said CIFCO Futures analyst Zhou Jie.

PRECIOUS-Gold hits 2-week high on Obama victory
SINGAPORE, Nov 7 (Reuters) - Gold extended gains to hit its highest level in two weeks after President  Barack Obama was re-elected in the United States, paving the way for continued monetary stimulus in the world's largest economy.
Obama's victory helps gold as it means quantitative easing  is set to continue, said Yuichi Ikemizu, branch manager for  Standard Bank in Tokyo.
"I think gold will be going back to $1,800 this year. We are going to see higher gold (prices) in the coming days, weeks and  months," he added.

Baltic index dips as rates for bigger vessels tumble
Nov 6 (Reuters) - The Baltic Exchange's main sea freight index, which gauges the cost of shipping commodities such as iron ore, cement, grain, coal and fertiliser, fell on Tuesday as rates for bigger vessels continued to decline.
The main index, which factors in the average daily earnings of capesize, panamax, supramax and handysize dry bulk transport vessels, fell 24 points or 2.47 percent to 947 points.

20121107 1445 Palm Oil Related News.

VEGOILS-Palm oil recovers from 1-mth low, floods eyed
Wed Nov 7, 2012 12:49am EST
* Prices rebound on bargain hunting
    * Traders eye flood risks in No.2 producer Malaysia
    * Palm oil to reach 2,423 ringgit -technicals

 (Updates prices, adds detail)
    By Chew Yee Kiat
    SINGAPORE, Nov 7 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures
gained on Wednesday and were on track to snap three days of
losses, with investors buying after prices marked a one-month
low earlier in the session and on concerns year-end floods in
the country could hurt production.
    "I heard there are worries about floods in the Johor area,
and we have also see some technical buying," said a
Singapore-based trader with a global commodities house,
referring to the state that accounts for almost 15 percent of
Malaysia's total palm production.
    By the midday break, the benchmark January contract
on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange had gained 1.6
percent to 2,410 ringgit ($790) per tonne. Prices earlier fell
to their weakest since Oct. 8 at 2,364 ringgit.
    Total traded volumes stood at 17,471 lots of 25 tonnes each,
higher than the usual 12,500 lots.
    Technicals showed palm oil could rebound to 2,423 ringgit,
as support held firm at 2,377 ringgit, said Reuters market
analyst Wang Tao.
    Malaysia's palm oil exports rose 10 percent to a 2012-high
at 1.6 million tonnes in October, and the steep discount between
palm oil and soybean oil could uncover more demand and help ease
swelling stocks.
    Stock levels in Malaysia, the world's No.2 palm oil
producer, were projected to reach a record 2.67 million tonnes
in October, a Reuters survey showed on Tuesday.
    Traders will be looking for more trading clues as cargo
surveyor Intertek Testing Services releases Malaysian exports
data for Nov. 1-10 on Saturday and as industry regulator the
Malaysian Palm Oil Board issues October stocks data on Monday.
    In related markets, Brent futures held below $111 per barrel
on Wednesday as concerns about weak demand in a fragile economy
and Greece outweighed supply disruption worries on escalating
tension in the Middle East.
    Uncertainty about the U.S. election eased after television
networks projected a victory for President Barack Obama against
Republican challenger Mitt Romney in a tight race.

    Other vegetable oil markets continued to edge higher. U.S.
soyoil for December delivery inched up 0.5 percent in
early Asian trade, while the most active May 2013 soybean oil
contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange had climbed
0.3 percent by the midday break.        

20121107 1144 Global Markets & Energy Related News.

GLOBAL MARKETS-Asian shares steady, counting starts in US election
TOKYO, Nov 7 (Reuters) - Asian shares were capped while the safe-haven yen gained as investors remained guarded against the risk of an indecisive outcome in the close-fought U.S. presidential election, with early counting as yet showing no clear winner.
"Markets see the lack of clarity in the key state of Ohio as heightening the risk of an inconclusive election result, spurring selling of the euro against the yen, or buying of the yen in general on risk aversion," said Yuji Saito, director of foreign exchange at Credit Agricole in Tokyo.

OIL-Oil up with Wall Street as U.S. goes to the polls
NEW YORK, Nov 6 (Reuters) - Oil rose 3 percent on Tuesday, rallying a second straight session and receiving a lift from gains on Wall Street as investors awaited U.S. election results.
"The market was oversold (last week)," said Christopher Bellew, a broker at Jefferies Bache. "It has been a very long move downwards from $115 down to about $105, so it's quite likely that we are going to continue upwards."

POLL-Stronger US economy to push up natgas prices 35 pct in 2013
NEW YORK, Nov 6 (Reuters) - Rescued from 10-year lows by record summer heat and strong utility demand, U.S. natural gas prices should rise 35 percent next year as production growth tapers off and economic activity increases, according to a Reuters poll of analysts.
U.S. consumers and businesses that rely on natural gas caught a break earlier this year when record high domestic production and inventories stoked by a mild winter and a boom in shale gas production pushed prices to decade lows below $2 per million British thermal units.

POLL-US crude inventories seen up, products down due to Sandy
Nov 6 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil inventories are forecast to have risen last week while product stocks were seen falling after disruptions to pipelines, imports and refineries caused by Hurricane Sandy upended trade, an expanded Reuters poll of analysts showed on Tuesday.
Sandy ravaged the Northeast fuel production and distribution network, with some refineries shutting and others cutting runs, reducing demand for crude. Pipeline and port closures, which limit imports, cut supplies of refined fuel to the region, potentially causing stockpiles to be drawn down.

NATURAL GAS - Cold snap drives U.S. natgas futures higher
NEW YORK, Nov 6 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures ended higher on Tuesday, backed by expectations for a fairly light weekly inventory build and by chilly weather this week that has stirred more heating demand despite concerns about record-high supplies.
"Temperatures are pretty cold this week, and there's a storm headed up the East Coast, not as big as Sandy, but it could bring some snow and wind and knock down power lines again," said Gelber & Associates market analyst Aaron Calder.

20121107 1004 Malaysia Corporate Related News.

Datuk Tong Kooi Ong, synonymous with the Sunrise property brand, will not have a role in UEM Land Holdings from the beginning of next year when his resignation from the board takes effect. According to a stock exchange filing by the company, Tong, 53, is quitting his position as a director "to focus more time on his family and own business." He was appointed to the board in late Feb 2011. (Starbiz)

Capital Dynamics, the fund manager for Malaysia's only closed-end fund Bhd, would "seriously consider" resigning if any of the three people nominated to the firm's board last Friday get a seat., which is managed by seasoned fund manager Tan Teng Boo, will oppose the attempt by Andrew Pegge, Lo Kok Kee and Low Nyap Heng to be elected as directors at its AGM here this Saturday. Capital Dynamics had yesterday sent a letter to shareholders by courier explaining that it would quit as both the fund manager and investment adviser to should Pegge, Lo or Low succeed. Tan said on Tuesday the objective of the three directors, who were nominated by one Evelyn Ho, was "very short term". “From our research, their objective is to hit and run,” he told journalists at a briefing. (Starbiz)

Bursa Malaysia has publicly reprimanded  Perdana Petroleum and its former executive chairman and CEO Tengku Dato’ Ibrahim Petra for breach of the listing requirements. In addition, Tengku Ibrahim was fined a sum of RM50,000. Perdana had breached paragraph 8.23(1) of the listing requirements as its subsidiary Perdana Resources Sdn Bhd had, from 19 Jan 2001 to 5 Dec 2006, provided financial assistance to party(ies) who did not fall within the permitted categories under paragraph 8.23(1)(i) to (iii) of the listing requirements. (BMSB)

Telekom Malaysia (TM) has signed a collaboration agreement with Technopreneurs Association of Malaysia (TeAM) and VADS Bhd for its BizApp Store. In a statement, TM said the collaboration marked a key milestone for the company by bringing cloud services to Malaysian small and medium enterprises via collaboration with TeAM and supported by VADS' platform. The TM BizApp Store is a self-service web portal that offers a wide range of business applications developed by international software companies and local independent software vendors (ISVs).

At the same event, VADS also signed a separate collaboration agreement with TeAM to provide a cloud platform for TeAM's ISVs. (Bernama)

Maxis launched its Built for SME Solution for the logistics and transportation industry. Head of Maxis Business Services Fitri Abdullah said the application, the first of its kind in the country, comprises Maxis' managed machine-to-machine, logistics and warehouse management system and fixed line saver with Unity Hotline. These 3 solutions are designed to provide logistics SMEs with end-to-end solutions from mobile to applications and software under one bundled offering, to help them run their business efficiently and cost-effectively. (Bernama)

Astro Malaysia Holdings Berhad met Astro staff over the fate of the shares they had subscribed for. A town hall was held at the request of employees as Astro's share price fell below its RM3 IPO price. Those who took loans to subscribe for the shares now face margin calls. Sources say efforts are being made to get the financing banks to give more time before making margin calls or to lower the margin threshold for Astro employees. (Star Biz)

Shareholders in Malaysia's two main KFC fast food franchisees have overwhelmingly backed a $1.7bn bid to take the business private, despite suggestions by some minority shareholders they would try to block the deal. Shareholders in both QSR Brands Bhd and KFC Holdings (Malaysia) Bhd in meeting on Monday and Tuesday approved what is the largest such deal in Malaysia since the privatisation of pay-TV firm Astro All Asia Network Plc in 2010. About 98% of shareholders in  QSR Brands and around 99% of shareholders in KFC Holdings voted in favour of the deal. (Reuters)

Malaysia Airports (MAHB) presented the final batch of awards to successful tenderers for KLIA2 yesterday. MD Tan Sri Bashir Ahmad said it received overwhelming response for the tender briefing sessions with over 1,600 interested parties. "All in all, 161 outlets have been tendered for the first day of operations at KLIA2," said Bashir.(Bernama)

The  express rail link (ERL) extension to  KLIA2 is expected to increase passenger traffic on the KLIA Express and Transit services by 40% to 7.4m passengers annually once it is operational in May 2013. ERL is a JV among YTL Corp (50% equity interest),  Lembaga Tabung Haji (40%) and  Trisilco Equity (10%). The extended line is about 2.14km long, with the new train terminal located at the gateway@KLIA2, the transport hub cum shopping mall for the new terminal. The fare from KL Sentral to KLIA2 will remain at the current RM35 while the inter-terminal fare will be RM2. The ERL  extension is on track for completion in March 2013. According to CEO Noormah Mohd Nor "When the low cost carriers moved (to LCCT) we lost about 20% of our ridership. So I am confident once everything is up and running in klia2, we can get back our lost passengers". The fare from KL Sentral to KLIA or klia2 will still be RM35 while the inter-terminal fare will be RM2. The ERL wil be completed in March 2013, ahead of klia2's targeted completion on May 1. (Financial Daily)

Express Rail Link Sdn Bhd (ERL) may consider floating its shares on Bursa Malaysia to raise funds if it is chosen to operate the proposed high-speed rail project linking Kuala Lumpur and Singapore. CEO Noormah Mohd Noor said the feasibility study on the project was still being done by the Land Public Transport Commission.     "We're very interested to bid the project. I understand that the study will be submitted to the government to decide on who will be the operator," she said during a media briefing here on Tuesday on the progress of the ERL extension to KLIA2 project. (Bernama)

A revised bid by Malaysia Steel Works Bhd (Masteel) and KUB Malaysia Bhd to build  an intra city commuter train  covering 100km of  Iskandar Malaysia in Johor appears to have been approved. The JV has been offered a 14.31ha parcel of land in Kempas Johor to construct the commuter train depot. Previous reports valued the rail network at RM1.23bn. (Sun Biz)

Pestech International Bhd told the stock exchange yesterday that it plans to explore the establishment of power supply infrastructure to the Dongphosy Specific Economic Zone (DSEZ) in Lao People’s Democratic Republic (Lao PDR) with UPL LAO Co Ltd. UPL is jointly developing the DSEZ with Lao PDR. Its plans to develop the DSEZ into a mixed development project that would require sufficient power supply. (BT)

Sime Darby Bhd's director Datuk Sreesanthan Eliathamby, who is facing seven charges of insider trading by the Securities Commission (SC), has withdrawn his offer for a re-election at the upcoming AGM. The announcement to Bursa Malaysia was made on Tuesday. (Sun)

Boustead Holdings Bhd, its wholly owned subsidiary,    Mutiara Rini Sdn Bhd is acquiring three parcels of freehold land in Jalan Cochrane for development, totalling 12.84 acres from LTAT for RM106.7m or RM190 psf. The transaction takes into account RM8.27m LTAT incurred for relocating occupants of the government quarters, demolishing the existing houses and upgrading facilities for a sports school. The acquisition of 12.84 acres makes up only a small portion of the 60 acres at stake in Jalan Cochrame.     The land was owned by the government and used for quarters for civil servants. The 12.84 acres was later disposed to LTAT and no details on the value of the initial investment by LTAT or net book value was provided in the announcement. LTAT is the single largest shareholder of Boustead at 59.7%. (Financial Daily)

Favelle Favco Bhd's  units have secured six purchase orders for its cranes valued at RM58.5m in Oct-2012. Itt said on Tuesday its units had received five purchase orders or letters of intent to supply offshore cranes. They were from BAM Clough Joint Venture, Brooke Dockyard and Engineering Works Corporation, Tat Hong Heavy Equipment Pte Ltd, Er Sai Caspian Contractor LLC and DESB Marine Services Sdn Bhd.The sixth order was from BASF Petronas Chemicals Sdn Bhd to supply cranes and winches. (Starbiz)

Jaycorp said its unit, Jaycorp Vantage Sdn Bhd, has inked a deal with Mensilin Holdings Sdn Bhd to acquire industrial land-cum-buildings as well as plant and machinery in Johor Baru, Johor, for RM8.0m. (BT)

Malayan Banking: Plans for 144 branches in Asean
Malayan Banking (Maybank) plans to open 144 more branches and increase its market share in the Asean region in the next 3 years. President and CEO Datuk Seri Abdul Wahid Omar said today the bank is eyeing to open an additional 4 branches in Laos, Singapore (13), Cambodia (9), Philippines (48) and Indonesia (70). This would increase the number of branches from 1 to 5 in Laos, from 22 to 35 in Singapore, from 11 to 20 in Cambodia, from 52 to 100 in the Philippines and from 380 to 450 in Indonesia. Maybank currently enjoys a 5% market share in Singapore, 3% in Indonesia and 1% in the Philippines. With the opening of the Laotian branch, Maybank has a physical presence in all 10 Asean countries including three branches in Brunei and two in Vietnam, although it has not gone into retail banking in Thailand and Myanmar yet. (Business Times)

Boustead Holdings: Acquires Jalan Conchrane land for RM106.7m
Boustead Holdings, through its wholly-owned subsidiary Mutiara Rini Sdn Bhd (MRSB), is acquiring 3 parcels of land totalling 12.84 acres from lembaga Angkatan Tentera (LTAT) for 106.7m, or about RM190 per sq ft. In an announcement to Bursa Malaysia on Tuesday, the company said the purchase consideration for the freehold land in  Jalan Conchrane was arrived at after taking into account RM8.27m incurred by LTAT to relocate occupants of government quarters, demolishing the existing houses and to upgrade facilities for a sports school. (Financial Daily)

Malaysia Steel Works: Offered 14.3ha site for commuter train depot
Malaysia Steel Works JV for a proposed commuter train service has been offered 14.31ha in Kempas, Johor for its Iskandar Malaysia commuter train depot. Masteel said on Tuesday its JV company -- Metropolitan Commuter Network Sdn Bhd (MCN) -- had received the offer from the Transport Ministry to build the depot. It would submit the application to Perbadanan Aset Keretapi for the land. It said the size of the land is sufficient for MCN's depot construction and is strategically located in Johor for the efficient operation of MCN's proposed commuter train service. MCN is a JV with KUB Malaysia. (StarBiz)

Selangor Dredging: MD buys more shares
Selangor Dredging MD Teh Lip Kim bought 148,800 shares from the open market at 80 sen apiece, a filing showed Tuesday evening. The purchase raised her direct holdings in the property developer to 75.96m shares or 17.83%, an increase of 1.17% from the 16.66% or 70.98m shares she had just over 5 months ago on June 1. Teh is also deemed interested in another 170.59m shares or 40.03%. (Financial Daily)

20121107 1003 Local & Global Economy Related News.

Malaysia's healthcare has attracted more foreign patients, including from developed countries such as the US and Japan, due to the high-quality care and reasonable rates on offer. Health Minister Datuk Seri Liow Tiong Lai said the number of foreign patients to the country showed a 48% increase in 2011, to 583,000 arrivals from 393,000 in 2010. (Bernama)

The  pay rise review for civil servants who have reached their maximum salary scale will only be conducted if the Special Commission on civil service transformation does not make any suggestions, said  Chief Secretary to the Government, Datuk Seri Dr Ali Hamsa. The Special Commission has had discussions with the Public Service Department and the results will be presented in Dec, he added. The study would take into consideration the total number of civil servants involved, financial implications for the government and to be fair to those who have not been given a raise or promotion after several years of being in the maximum bracket, he said. (Bernama)

Malaysia is the  second best country in the Association of South-East Asian Nations (Asean) for dynamic growing businesses, according to the Grant Thornton Global Dynamism Index (GDI). Malaysia, which came in second after Singapore, was ranked 23rd globally. Managing partner of SJ Grant Thornton, Datuk N.K. Jasani, said the strong positioning was a result of good ratings for Malaysia in key areas of business operating environment (74), economics and growth (72.3) and financing environment (57.7). (Bernama)

US job openings - a measure of  labor demand - fell to 3.56m in Sep from 3.66m in Aug. The hiring rate decreased to 3.1% from 3.3% while the quit rate fell to 1.5% from 1.6%. (Reuters)

In the US, CoreLogic Inc's home price index fell 0.3% mom in Sep. Prices were still up strongly compared with a year ago, rising 5% yoy for the biggest increase since Jul 2006. (Reuters)

The  eurozone’s services PMI declined to 46 in Oct from 46.2 last month. The region’s  composite PMI slid to 45.7 in Oct from 45.8 previously. (Bloomberg)

Producer prices in the  euro area rose 0.2% mom in Sep, slowing from a 0.9% rise in Aug. In year-to-year terms producer-price inflation was unchanged at 2.7%. (WSJ)

Japan’s leading index fell to 91.7 in Sep from 93.2 in Aug, while the coincident index slipped to 91.2 from 93.5 in Aug. (Bloomberg, Reuters)

Indonesia will review its rules on the export of unprocessed metal ores after a Supreme Court ruling upheld a challenge to a government ban on such shipments. The court decision could pave the way for a resumption of exports by small mining companies, which were hit hard by the restriction imposed in May. (Reuters)

The rice exports target for 2013 has been set at 8.5m tonnes, up 16.44% from this year's expected result,  Thailand’s Foreign Trade Department reported. (Bangkok Post)

Consumer price inflation in the Philippines slowed to a four-month low of 3.1% yoy in Oct from 3.6 percent in Sep. (Philippine Star)

Australia’s central bank left the overnight cash-rate target at 3.25%. The move surprised most economists, who predicted a cut to 3%. (Bloomberg)

20121107 0952 Global Markets Related News.

Asian Stocks Climb as U.S. Voting Continues (Bloomberg)
Asian stocks climbed, with consumer shares pushing the regional benchmark higher for a second day, as investors awaited results of the U.S. presidential election. News Corp. (NWS), the media company run by billionaire Rupert Murdoch, gained 3.3 percent in Sydney after reporting profit that topped analysts’ estimates. Social-gaming site operator DeNA Co. climbed 3.2 percent in Tokyo as earnings beat estimates. Taiyo Yuden Co., the Japanese electronic-component maker, slumped 5.6 percent after cutting its profit forecast. Nissan Motor Co. surged 4 percent, the largest gain on the Asian gauge, on speculation Chinese customers are returning to the automaker’s dealerships. The MSCI Asia Pacific (MXAP) Index rose 0.2 percent to 122.68 as of 9:16 a.m. in Tokyo, before markets in China and Hong Kong opened. The gauge gained 12 percent through yesterday from this year’s low on June 4 as central banks added stimulus amid a slowdown in global economic growth and the European debt crisis.
“Investors will be solely focused on news-wires and the U.S. vote count,” said Matthew Sherwood, Perpetual Investment’s head of investment markets research in Sydney. Perpetual manages about $25 billion. “Let’s just hope for a conclusive vote today.” Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average gained 0.4 percent and South Korea’s Kospi slid 0.1 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index advanced 0.2 percent.

Japan Stocks Climb on Commodities Before U.S. Election (Bloomberg)
Japanese stocks rose, halting a two- day drop, as higher oil and metal prices lifted resources companies and as investors awaited results from the U.S. presidential election. Inpex Corp., Japan’s top oil explorer by market value, gained 1.8 percent after boosting its full-year forecast and as crude prices rose the most in a month. Sumitomo Metal Mining Co. rose 3.9 percent. Softbank Corp. rose 1.7 percent after the mobile carrier’s target price was raised at Credit Suisse Group AG. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average (NKY) rose 0.5 percent to 9,015.37 as of 9:22 a.m. in Tokyo, with volume 3.7 percent below the 30- day intraday average. The broader Topix (TPX) Index advanced 0.4 percent to 747.87, with more than two shares gaining for each that fell.
“The presidential election will give us clarity on the direction of U.S. policy,” said Hiroichi Nishi, an equities manager in Tokyo at SMBC Nikko Securities Inc. “The U.S. economy is recovering mildly and China’s economy is expected to bottom out, boosting commodity prices.” Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index slid 0.3 percent today. The gauge rose 0.8 percent yesterday. U.S. voters are at the polls to decide between giving President Barack Obama another four years to lead the world’s largest economy or replacing him with Republican challenger Mitt Romney. The next president will need to address a so-called fiscal cliff of more than $600 billion in tax increases and spending cuts that take effect in 2013 unless Congress can reach a budget compromise.

Recap Stock Index Market Report (CME)
The December S&P 500 trended higher throughout the US trading session, registering a higher high in the process. Early support came from gains in European shares and favorable shift in risk-taking sentiment. Some traders noted that the uncertainty over the next US president was coming to conclusion, and that was seen as a modest positive. Upside leadership was seen in the Dow Jones Index, helped by better than 2% gains in the shares of United Technologies, Boeing and Hewlett-Packard. Most of the major S&P sector indices were in positive territory, led by gains in energy and industrial-related shares. The market will get the latest quarterly results from News Corp after the closing bell.

U.S. Stock Futures Fall as Investors Await Vote Results (Bloomberg)
U.S. stock futures fell, following a two-day advance for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, as Americans awaited presidential election results. S&P 500 futures expiring in December dropped 0.4 percent to 1,419.80 at 9:49 a.m. Tokyo time. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures lost 45 points, or 0.3 percent, to 13,156. “We’ll have some degree of clarity after the polls,” said Stephen Wood, the New York-based chief market strategist for North America for Russell Investments, which oversees $152 billion. “While the elections will determine who will be doing the negotiating, we’ll still have issues such as the fiscal cliff to deal with. The market is in a wait-and-see mode.” U.S. voters are deciding between giving President Barack Obama another four years or replacing him with Republican challenger Mitt Romney. The races in the battleground states of Virginia, Ohio and North Carolina were too close to call in the early returns, while each candidate scored victories in other states in the first wave of poll closings. The next president will need to address a so-called fiscal cliff of more than $600 billion in tax increases and spending cuts that take effect in 2013 unless Congress can reach a budget compromise. The options market is implying about a 2 percent move up or down in the S&P 500 over the next four trading days, according to Susquehanna Financial Group LLLP’s head of derivatives strategy Trevor Mottl. That’s equivalent to an even-odds range of 1,389 to 1,445 for the close on Nov. 9 based on options prices as of Nov. 5, he wrote in a note to clients.

U.S. Stocks Rise Ahead of Presidential Election Results (Bloomberg)
U.S. stocks rose, sending the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index higher for a second straight day, as American voters went to the polls to pick a president. Hewlett-Packard Co. (HPQ) and United Technologies Corp. (UTX) added at least 2.6 percent to pace gains among the biggest companies. Computer Sciences Corp., the manager of networks for NASA, surged 17 percent as a cost-cutting program helped boost its profit forecast. Express Scripts (ESRX) Holding Co., the largest U.S. pharmacy benefits manager, plunged 12 percent after saying analysts’ profit estimates for 2013 were “overly aggressive.” The S&P 500 rose 0.8 percent to 1,428.39 at 4 p.m. in New York. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 133.24 points, or 1 percent, to 13,245.68. Volume for exchange-listed stocks in the U.S. was 5.9 billion shares, or about in line with the three- month average, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
“We’re moving closer to a definition on the election front,” said Mark Luschini, who helps manage $54 billion as chief investment strategist for Philadelphia-based Janney Montgomery Scott LLC. “It’s offering investors reason to say: we move from the unknown category regardless of the outcome.” U.S. voters decide today between giving President Barack Obama another four years in office or replacing him with Republican challenger Mitt Romney. The next president will need to address a so-called fiscal cliff of more than $600 billion in tax increases and spending cuts that take effect in 2013 unless Congress can reach a budget compromise.

European Stocks Climb as Americans Vote; ARM, Adecco Gain (Bloomberg)
European stocks advanced for the third time in four days as Americans went to the polls to elect their president. ARM Holdings Plc increased 2.1 percent as Apple Inc. (AAPL) was said to explore how to use the chip designs from its mobile devices in Mac personal computers. Adecco SA (ADEN) climbed 3.2 percent after the world’s biggest supplier of temporary workers reported earnings that exceeded estimates. Volkswagen AG (VOW) dropped 4.1 percent as the carmaker sold 2.5 billion euros ($3.2 billion) of bonds that convert into shares. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index (SXXP) increased 0.6 percent to 274.74 at the close of trading, as more than two shares rose for every one that declined. The equity benchmark has surged 17 percent from its low on June 4, as the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve announced further rounds of asset buying.
“Europeans would like to see Barack Obama elected because they know where he stands,” said Robert Halver, head of capital markets research at Baader Bank AG in Frankfurt. “Whichever president is elected will have to face the fiscal-cliff debate.” The so-called fiscal cliff refers to the $607 billion in federal spending cuts and tax increases scheduled to take effect in January unless the U.S. Congress acts.

China’s Stocks Drop Most in Week; China Eastern, Moutai Decline (Bloomberg)
Chinese stocks fell, dragging down the benchmark index by the most in a week, before the start of the country’s leadership congress and U.S. presidential elections. China Eastern Airlines Corp. , the nation’s second-biggest domestic carrier, slid 3.1 percent after Credit Suisse Group AG downgraded the stock to underperform. Liquor maker Kweichow Moutai Co. (600519) paced declines for consumer staples producers on speculation recent gains were excessive relative to earnings prospects. Aluminum Corp. of China Ltd. and China Coal Energy Co. led losses for metal and energy producers on concern Europe will struggle to contain its sovereign debt problems. The Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) slid 0.4 percent to 2,105.99 at the close, the biggest decline since Oct. 26. The CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300) dropped 0.4 percent to 2,292.21. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI) of Chinese companies traded in Hong Kong slipped 0.2 percent.
“Investors are cautious ahead of the congressional meeting and U.S. voting,” Hao Hong, managing director of research at Bank of Communications, said in e-mailed comments from Beijing. “Typically, the Chinese market tends to underperform before the meeting.” President Hu Jintao is due to hand over the Communist Party leadership to Vice President Xi Jinping at a congress that begins Nov. 8. Trading volumes in the Shanghai Composite exceeded the 30- day average for this time of day by 7.1 percent, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Thirty-day volatility in the gauge was at 16.4 today, lower than this year’s average of 17.2. The Shanghai index trades at 10 times estimated profit after falling 4.3 percent this year, compared with the 17.8 average multiple since Bloomberg began compiling the weekly data in 2006.

Emerging Stock Swings at 2006 Low as Consumer Shares Rise (Bloomberg)
Consumer companies and energy producers led an advance in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index (MXEF) as price swings dropped to the lowest level since 2006. Brazilian stocks jumped to a two-week high. Polskie Gornictwo Naftowe i Gazownictwo SA, Poland’s biggest gas distributor, had the steepest gain on the emerging- markets gauge as Moscow-based OAO Gazprom agreed to cut the price of the fuel. BYD Co. (1211), the Chinese carmaker partly owned by Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc., climbed to a six-month high after China Development Bank Corp. agreed to provide financing for some buyers of its vehicles. Brazilian steelmaker Usinas Siderurgicas de Minas Gerais SA rose the most since Sept. 13, following commodities higher. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index added 0.5 percent to 1006.27 at the close of trading in New York.
The gauge’s 30-day historical volatility slid to 8.48, the lowest level since January 2006, as U.S. voters decide today between giving President Barack Obama another four-year term or replacing him with Republican Mitt Romney. The Standard & Poor’s GSCI index of 24 raw materials rose 2.3 percent, the most in a month. “The fact that we get some answers is reassuring,” Bruce McCain, chief investment strategist at the private-banking unit of KeyCorp in Cleveland, said in a phone interview. “It may be just an euphoric reaction to knowing that at least we’re not going to have to deal with campaigning. If investors can move away from the concerns that have weighed on prices, there is the potential for equity markets to move higher.”

Bain Says Private-Equity Deals to Rebound: Southeast Asia (Bloomberg)
Southeast Asia’s private-equity investments will pick up as early as next year, reversing a half-decade slump as the region’s improving economic outlook attracts funds, said Sebastien Lamy, a partner at Bain & Co. Private-equity deals in the region this year are expected to match 2011’s $5.3 billion or post a decline, before staging a rebound over the next two years, Lamy said, citing Bain research. The investments dropped from a peak of $12.3 billion in 2007, according to data from the corporate consulting firm. Transactions will grow as the biggest developing economies in Southeast Asia, which has a combined population of about 600 million, accelerate even as the expansion in China and India slows. Investors almost doubled funds allocated to the two nations in the three years through 2011, while funds spent in Southeast Asia stagnated, McKinsey & Co. said in a May report.
“The overall economic outlook for Southeast Asia remains solid and we are seeing strong interest by investors,” Lamy, a partner at Bain in Singapore, said in an interview yesterday. “Deal-making in the region will pick up in 2013 or 2014.” The region is drawing more global players. KKR & Co. (KKR), the private equity firm run by Henry Kravis and George Roberts, said Oct. 25 it opened an office in Singapore and plans to expand its business lending to Asian companies amid a shortage of funding in the region. The New York-based company is seeking to make more loans including mezzanine financing and investments in high-yield bonds over the next five years, said Joseph Bae, managing partner of KKR Asia Ltd.

Job Openings in U.S. Decreased by 100,000 in September (Bloomberg)
Job openings in the U.S. dropped to a five-month low in September, signaling uneven progress in the labor market may extend through year-end. The number of positions waiting to be filled declined by 100,000 to 3.56 million from the prior month, the Labor Department said today in a statement. Openings have cooled since reaching a peak this year of 3.74 million in March. A slowing global economy and the risk Congress won’t avert $607 billion in automatic federal tax increases and spending cuts next year represent obstacles for American companies as they assess hiring plans. Today’s figures show the October jump in private payrolls, the biggest in eight months, may be difficult to sustain without faster economic growth. “We’re looking at a very subdued pace of employment,” said Michelle Girard, senior U.S. economist at RBS Securities Inc. in Stamford, Connecticut. “The economy is growing, but growing too slowly. Firms want more clarity on the outlook before they’re actually going to step up their hiring pace.”
Stocks gained for a second day as Americans headed to the polls to decide between giving President Barack Obama another four years or replacing him with Republican challenger Mitt Romney. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index climbed 0.8 percent to 1,428.39 at the close of trading in New York. Talking to customers, “what we’re hearing is that they’re not hiring, they’re not investing right now,” Greg Lehmkuhl, president of Con-way Freight Inc., said during a Nov. 1 call with analysts. “They’re waiting for some more stability in the political and fiscal policies. Hopefully after the election and with the dealing of the fiscal cliff our customers will feel more confident in investing in their businesses.”

Housing-Market Recovery in U.S. Not ‘Resounding,’ Shiller Says (Bloomberg)
The U.S. housing recovery is a fragile one and should be spurred by reducing the role of government in the mortgage-finance system, said Robert Shiller, a professor at Yale University and co-creator of the S&P/Case- Shiller index of property values. “There are positive signs, the problem is that it’s not a really strong positive sign yet,” Shiller said in an interview on Bloomberg Television’s “In the Loop” with Betty Liu today. It is “not a resounding recovery,” he said. Americans bought new homes in September at the fastest pace in two years, indicating that the industry whose decline was at the heart of the recession is bouncing back. Sales climbed 5.7 percent to a 389,000 annual pace, the most since April 2010, following a revised 368,000 rate in August, figures from the Commerce Department showed on Oct. 24.
“We have to get back to a private-sector mortgage market, without government dominance,” Shiller said. “We have to think about alternative mortgages that don’t invite the same sort of crisis where we have 10 million homeowners under water. We don’t want to put Americans in such leveraged positions.” Republicans in Congress have called for an end to the Fannie Mae (FNMA) and Freddie Mac, the mortgage finance companies put under government conservatorship in 2008. Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner has said he will propose a housing-finance overhaul that may include dismantling the firms. While Geithner said at the beginning of this year that the administration would release a wind-down plan by the spring, no plan has been released. Separately, Shiller said that with unemployment at 7.9 percent, the U.S. economy needs further fiscal stimulus to create jobs. He said increases in spending should be offset by higher taxes on the wealthy proposed by President Barack Obama to avoid enlarging the national debt.
“It would be tax increases Obama set on the wealthy, and at the same time, expenditure increases -- that’s a balanced- budget stimulus,” he said. “It doesn’t raise the national debt, but it stimulates the economy. We need something like that.”

Obama Battles Romney to Buck History as Polling Closes (Bloomberg)
President Barack Obama seeks to overcome stubborn U.S. joblessness as he vies for a second term while Republican challenger Mitt Romney is counting on upsets in battleground states to win the White House as polls closed in closely contested Virginia, Ohio and North Carolina. The race in each of those three battlegrounds was too close to call in the early returns, while each candidate scored victories in other states in the first wave of poll closings. The Associated Press projected a Romney win in Kentucky and West Virginia and that Obama carried Vermont -- results widely expected. Television networks projected Romney would win South Carolina and Indiana, the latter a state Obama won in 2008 though the Republican was favored there this year.
Virginia and Ohio are the most closely watched of the states that have ended balloting. Obama in 2008 became the first Democrat to win Virginia since 1964, and pre-election polling showed the race this year a tossup as Romney works to turn the state back into the Republican column. No Republican has won the presidency without a victory in Ohio. Pre-election polling nationally and in several battleground states -- the ones analysts from both parties say will most likely determine who wins the presidency -- has tilted slightly in Obama’s favor in the campaign’s final days. Re-election for Obama would make him just the second president since World War II to win another term with an unemployment rate above 6 percent.

Obama Mirror Image of Hoover With Lessons From 1930s (Bloomberg)
President Barack Obama is betting he learned enough lessons from Herbert Hoover to revive an economy still slowed in the wake of financial crisis. Hoover, president from 1929 to 1933, raised taxes, signed the Smoot-Hawley import tariffs that hurt global trade and failed to stem a run on banks -- all of which contributed to the Great Depression. Obama, who seeks a second term in today’s election, helped to recapitalize the U.S. banking system, rescued automakers and approved $831 billion in fiscal stimulus. Obama’s activism reflects a much larger federal-government role 80 years later, as well as the development of macroeconomics, giving officials more tools now to combat a slump, said Mark Gertler, a professor of economics at New York University.

Unlimited Lending May Help Weaken the Yen, BOJ Official Says (Bloomberg)
The Bank of Japan’s new unlimited lending program may further weaken the yen by reviving the carry trade after the currency sank to a six-month low last week, a senior central bank official said. A weaker yen “isn’t our main objective but it’s a common understanding that an accommodative policy eventually leads to the depreciating of one’s own currency,” Executive Director Hideo Hayakawa, 58, the official in charge of overseeing the financial system, said in an interview in Tokyo yesterday. The central bank unveiled a program of low-interest loans last week in a bid to boost demand for credit and spur growth as the nation’s economic recovery flags. The yen touched 80.68 per dollar on Nov. 2, its lowest since April, three days after the BOJ announced the program and an 11 trillion yen ($137 billion) expansion of an asset-purchase fund. The currency was at 80.23 as of 11:24 a.m. in Tokyo.
The program, which offers loans to banks at the BOJ’s overnight call rate, currently 0.1 percent, is part of the central bank’s efforts to prop up an economy hit by the global slowdown and a strong yen as the government presses for “visible results” on ending deflation. Amid weak credit demand and low rates at home, the facility may help push down the yen by boosting capital outflows as banks look to lend money to customers abroad, a trend Hayakawa said will probably continue for at least the next few years. The loans may also drive investors to sell the yen to buy higher- yielding currencies.

Top-Performing Won Threatens to Hurt Korea Export Rebound (Bloomberg)
South Korea’s won, the best performer among Asia’s most-traded currencies since June, is threatening to curtail exports just as the economy shows signs of a rebound in growth. The won may appreciate a further 9.1 percent from yesterday’s close to 1,000 per dollar by the end of 2013, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch and BNP Paribas SA forecasts. Kia Motors Corp. (000270), the nation’s second-largest carmaker, said Oct. 26 that currency gains may hurt profitability. The exchange rate, Europe’s debt crisis and a slowdown in China may prevent the economy from meeting the government’s 2013 growth estimate of 4 percent, according to the National Assembly Budget Office. While the central bank is forecast to keep rates unchanged on Nov. 9, policy makers may come under increasing pressure to cut rates in coming months should inflows of capital drive the currency higher.
“The interest-rate gap between developed countries and South Korea is spurring bond market inflows and triggering won appreciation,” said Stephen Lee, a Seoul-based economist for Samsung Securities Co., who sees the benchmark rate cut to 2.25 percent from 2.75 percent within the first half of next year. “The Bank of Korea will have to lower rates to lessen this pressure.”

Russian October Inflation Rate Unexpectedly Falls to 6.5% (Bloomberg)
Russia’s price growth unexpectedly eased in October, slowing for the first time in six months and giving policy makers room to sidestep interest-rate increases. The inflation rate fell to 6.5 percent in October from a year earlier, compared with 6.6 percent in September, the Federal Statistics Service in Moscow said today in an e-mailed statement. Prices grew 0.5 percent in the month. Economists projected a 6.7 percent annual rate and a 0.6 percent advance in the month, according to the median estimates of two Bloomberg surveys. Russia, the biggest emerging economy to raise interest rates this year, is trying to keep a lid on consumer prices after droughts in the U.S. and locally drove up food costs. The government’s top priority is fighting inflation, even at the expense of short-term growth, President Vladimir Putin said last month at an investment conference in Moscow.
“Food inflation eased off a little in October, so it seems that has been partly driving the slowdown in the headline rate,” said Neil Shearing, chief emerging-markets economist at Capital Economics Ltd. in London, who correctly predicted the rate. While inflation may near 7 percent by year-end, policy makers are likely to hold rates “for the foreseeable future” as the economy slows, he said. The ruble is the third-worst performer among more than 20 emerging-market currencies tracked by Bloomberg over the last six months, losing 5.4 percent against the dollar. It was little changed at 31.4800 per dollar as of 4:36 p.m. in Moscow. Non- deliverable forwards, which provide a guide to expectations of currency movements, showed the ruble at 31.9575 per dollar in three months.

Australian House Prices Advance on Strength in Mining States (Bloomberg)
Australian home prices rose for a second straight quarter, the first back-to-back increase since 2010, led by gains in the capitals of states at the center of the nation’s mining boom. An index measuring the weighted average of house prices in eight major cities advanced 0.3 percent in the third quarter from the previous three months, when it rose a revised 0.6 percent, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said in Sydney today. The median estimate of 15 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was a 1 percent rise. The data reflects 1.25 percentage points of interest rate cuts by the RBA from November to June, which have helped boost consumer confidence, home lending and building approvals. Governor Glenn Stevens resumed reductions in borrowing costs last month, as he seeks to strengthen areas outside the resources industry -- where investment is expected to peak at a lower level than previously expected next year -- and traders are pricing in a 50-50 chance of a rate cut today.
“Although it was below expectations, the data does provide further evidence of a stabilization in house prices,” said Janu Chan, an economist at St. George Bank Ltd. in Sydney. “The outlook for housing is promising, given that the lower borrowing costs are having an impact and the Reserve Bank of Australia has hinted that it wants housing to improve and that’s suggesting that it will adjust monetary policy to do so.” Prices rose 1.8 percent in Perth, 0.4 percent in Brisbane and 0.3 percent in Sydney in the third quarter from the prior three months, the report showed. They declined 1.1 percent in Canberra and dropped 0.6 percent in Adelaide, it showed. The local currency was little changed after the data, trading at $1.0370 at 12:34 p.m. in Sydney.

Ports Risk $4 Trillion Indonesia Bounty Luring Unilever: Freight (Bloomberg)
A road winds through plantations from the site of Unilever (UNA)’s planned $150 million factory to the coast in western Indonesia -- ending at a port too small to load the chemicals the company seeks to ship from the remote region. “We’re committed to the investment,” said Sancoyo Antarikso, a Jakarta-based director of the Indonesian unit of Unilever, the world’s second-largest consumer goods maker. “But we need government support to build infrastructure.” President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono plans to fix that by pouring $12 billion into ports by 2025, supporting special economic zones in the nation of more than 17,000 islands. It’s part of his goal to expand Indonesia’s economy almost fivefold to at least $4 trillion in the period. Unilever’s plant making ingredients for soaps and shampoos will lie in one such zone, Sei Mangkei, 830 miles (1,335 kilometers) northwest of Jakarta.
“Development of ports is essential,” said Henry Sandee, a senior trade specialist at the World Bank in Jakarta. “Trade between islands can take place at low costs only when ports function well.” The need to boost spending on harbors, roads and railways stands to benefit construction businesses such as PT Pembangunan Perumahan (PTPP), PT Wijaya Karya (WIKA) and PT Adhi Karya (ADHI), according to PT Bahana Securities. Each of the stocks may advance more than 20 percent in the next 12 months, said Harry Su, head of research.

U.K. Manufacturing Increased Less Than Forecast in September (Bloomberg)
U.K. manufacturing output gained less than economists forecast in September as machinery and chemical production declined, adding to evidence that the economy’s rebound is losing momentum. Factory output rose 0.1 percent from August, the Office for National Statistics said today in London. The median forecast of 30 economists in a Bloomberg News survey was for an increase of 0.4 percent. Total industrial output plunged 1.7 percent as oil and gas output dropped by a record due to maintenance of sites. While the U.K. emerged from recession in the three months through September with the strongest growth since 2007, recent reports have shown signs of weakness at the start of the fourth quarter. The data clouds the outlook as the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee starts a two-day meeting tomorrow to decide whether to expand quantitative easing after completing its latest bond-purchase round last week.
“The economic recovery is quickly losing momentum,” Samuel Tombs, an economist at Capital Economics Ltd. in London, said in a research note. “While the MPC may pause QE at its meeting later this week, if the economic data remain weak then it may not be long before the committee is forced to provide the economy with further stimulus.” The ONS revised its estimate for third-quarter industrial production to an increase of 0.9 percent from the 1.1 percent estimated in its gross domestic product report published last month. Still, it said the impact of the revision on the GDP data is “minimal.”

Samaras Faces Down Parliament Dissenter as Greeks Srike (Bloomberg)
Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras faces a test of his fragile coalition government today as he seeks parliamentary approval of austerity measures to unlock bailout funds amid the third general strike in six weeks. The 238 pages of austerity measures, ranging from raising the retirement age two years to 67 to eliminating Christmas and holiday payments for pensioners, will be debated in the 300-seat Parliament from 10 a.m. with a roll-call vote expected after 8 p.m. Athens time. Approval of the legislation is the first of the parliamentary votes required by Nov. 12 to unlock a 31 billion-euro ($40 billion) portion of international aid. “We now find ourselves at the final critical crossroads and must take the right decision,” Finance Minister Yannis Stournaras told the committee yesterday. “The goal is clear and there is only one road toward it.”
Samaras must stem defections from his three-party coalition to convince European Union leaders including German Chancellor Angela Merkel that his government is serious about staying in the euro and implementing reforms. The government has lost as many as four supporters since being formed in June, with the latest defection coming from the ranks of Socialist Pasok, which provides Samaras with the votes he needs for his majority in Parliament.

Rajoy Says Spain Must Know Rescue Would Bring Down Yields (Bloomberg)
Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy said Spain needs to know how much its borrowing costs would fall if it sought a European bailout, as he continues to push the European Central Bank to improve its bond-buying offer. “The issue is not only conditions, but how much the spread will narrow, because if it means the risk premium stays around 400 basis points and doesn’t fall to 200, well, obviously that’s not the same thing,” Rajoy told Cope radio today in Madrid. The premium is now 424 basis points. Rajoy said last week that sometimes the “hardest decision is not to take any decision. He has been considering an aid request for three months. Spain, which has yet to receive any of the 100 billion-euro ($128 billion) June bank bailout, wants to avoid having any sovereign rescue bid stymied by the ECB or European government. ‘‘We have to guarantee the support of all the countries of the European Union,’’ he said. The government hasn’t made any decision and the ‘‘possibility is there’’ to make a request.
Spain’s 10-year bond yields fell to 5.70 percent at 11:20 a.m. today in Madrid from 5.75 percent yesterday. That’s down from 7.2 percent on Aug. 2, when the ECB first offered to intervene in the bond markets of nations that agree to the conditions of the loan programs led by euro-region governments.  Greece headed for a cliffhanger vote on austerity measures needed to keep the bailout on track as a 48-hour general strike began and European officials squabbled over the timing of a deal to unlock rescue funds. European Union Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn, speaking at a meeting of Group of 20 finance chiefs in Mexico City, said yesterday that a deal must be made at a meeting of EU finance ministers in Brussels on Nov. 12. A European G-20 official, speaking before Rehn and on condition of anonymity, cast doubt on the prospects for that deadline, saying officials may fall short.
Greece is under pressure to make more efforts to rein in its budget deficit and deregulate the economy. While German Chancellor Angela Merkel last month travelled to Greece to signal her willingness to keep Greece in the euro, the country is still struggling to hit its debt reduction targets amid a combination of Greek political resistance to more cuts and economic collapse.

German Factory Orders Slump the Most in a Year: Economy (Bloomberg)
German factory orders fell the most in a year in September as Europe’s sovereign debt crisis and slowing economic growth prompted companies to reduce investment. Orders, adjusted for seasonal swings and inflation, slumped 3.3 percent from August, when they dropped a revised 0.8 percent, the Economy Ministry in Berlin said today. That’s the second straight drop and the biggest since September 2011. Economists forecast a 0.4 percent decline, according to the median of 40 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. From a year earlier, orders sank 4.7 percent when adjusted for work days. Germany’s economy, Europe’s largest, is showing signs of weakness as governments and consumers across the region reduce spending, damping export demand. Business confidence fell to the lowest in more than 2 1/2 years in September and the unemployment rate rose from a two-decade low. At the same time, Germany is weathering the debt crisis better than its euro-area counterparts thanks to exports to emerging markets and domestic demand. Today’s data “are a catastrophe and very bad news,” said Thomas Harjes, senior European economist at Barclays Plc in Frankfurt. “We have a huge problem in the rest of the euro area that now seems to be reaching Germany and its labor market. For the coming quarters, the economic outlook is quite gloomy.” The euro dropped after the report and traded at $1.2783 at 12:16 p.m. in Frankfurt. European stocks advanced for the third time in four days ahead of the U.S. presidential election. U.S. index futures and Asian shares also rose.

U.K. Home Prices Seen Falling for a Second Straight Year (Bloomberg)
U.K. home prices will fall 2 percent next year, the second straight decline, as values in every region of the country decrease for the first time since the financial crisis began in 2008, Knight Frank LLP said. The biggest drops will be in Wales and Scotland, while London properties will depreciate the least, the property broker said in a statement today. Knight Frank forecast a 1 percent increase in 2014 residential properties prices and a 2 percent gain a year later. “There’s been a complete reversal of the optimism that we saw in the summer,” Grainne Gilmore, head of U.K. residential research at the London-based firm, said in an interview. “There are weak economic conditions, there is nervousness among potential buyers, there’s difficulty getting mortgages for first-time buyers and people moving up the housing chain.”
Britain’s uncertain economic prospects and fragile consumer confidence have dented demand for homes and banks are reluctant to lend. A real estate market recovery is unlikely without sustained economic growth, Hometrack Ltd., a London-based property research group, said last week. The U.K. emerged from a recession in the three months through September with the strongest growth since 2007. Even so, recent reports have shown signs of weakness. Manufacturing output gained less than economists forecast in September, adding to evidence that the economy’s rebound is faltering.

20121107 0952 Global Commodities Related News.

DTN Closing Grain Comments 11/06 14:45 Election Day Rally (CME)
Grains rallied on Election Day with soybeans leading the charge on renewed buying from both investors and end users. This was in part tied to excessively wet conditions in Argentina cutting into production potential.

Wheat Market Recap Report (CME)
December Wheat finished up 11 at 877, 2 3/4 off the high and 10 up from the low. March Wheat closed up 11 1/4 at 890 1/2. This was 10 1/2 up from the low and 2 1/2 off the high. December Chicago wheat traded sharply higher on the day after European wheat futures set new contract highs overnight and crop conditions in the US western plains deteriorated further. The weekly Winter Wheat Conditions report as of November 4th showed 39% of the crop was rated good/excellent which was in line with market estimates and compared to 40% last week. This was the lowest rating ever recorded for early November. Poor/very poor conditions jumped to 19% vs. 15% last year which was the highest poor/very poor rating for the same time period. Conditions in the eastern US remain more favorable than those of the western US. States like Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas are beginning to dry down and soil moisture conditions are deteriorating according to the most recent top soil condition map which shows all three states as very dry.
Very  limited rainfall is expected for the western plains over the next two weeks. Jordan ended up buying no wheat in their 100,000 tonne tender overnight. This was most likely due to the recent rally in prices. Traders noted that volume was low in today's trade as most investors await the outcome of the US Presidential election. December Oats closed up 2 at 360. This was 6 1/2 up from the low and 3 3/4 off the high.

Corn Market Recap for 11/6/2012 (CME)
December Corn finished up 5 1/2 at 741, 1/2 off the high and 5 1/2 up from the low. March Corn closed up 5 at 743. This was 5 up from the low and 1/2 off the high. December corn rebounded today as the US Dollar turned lower and crude oil surged. A strong bounce in the soybean market also helped to support but traders noted that the volume was light due to the Presidential election. Additional support was linked to some analysts reducing their Argentina corn production estimate due to the heavy rainfall the last couple weeks which has caused significant delays to planting. The South American weather outlook is more favorable this week which may offer a bearish bias to the corn market. Central and Northern Brazil are expected to see showers while Southern Brazil and Argentina are expected to dry down. The high heat in Central Brazil has subsided and temperatures are expected to be non-threatening this week. These conditions should enhance field work and soil conditions. Traders also positioned ahead of Friday's USDA report which is expected to show a yield near the October estimate of 122 bushels per acre and production near 10.65 billion bushels vs. the October estimate of 10.7. November Rice finished up 0.175 at 15.035, equal to the high and 0.185 up from the low.

Oil Rises Most in a Month on Fuel Supply Concern (Bloomberg)
Crude rose the most in a month on forecasts that U.S. gasoline supplies dropped after Hurricane Sandy forced the shutdown of East Coast refineries and as Americans went to the polls to pick a president. Futures climbed to a two-week high after a Bloomberg survey showed supplies of the motor fuel probably decreased 1.5 million barrels last week. Hess Corp. (HES) and Phillips (PSX) 66’s New Jersey refineries remained shut after Sandy. U.S. voters decide today whether to return Barack Obama, a Democrat, as president or elect his challenger, Mitt Romney, a Republican. “Clearly there is a short-term shortage of gasoline on the East Coast because of the closure of refineries, terminals and pipelines,” said Julius Walker, global energy markets strategist at UBS Securities LLC in New York. “These problems should be short-lived. In the oil market, you also have some sentiment about the election affecting trading.”
Crude oil for December delivery advanced $3.06, or 3.6 percent, to $88.71 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the biggest gain since Oct. 4 and the highest settlement since Oct. 22. Prices are down 10 percent this year. Prices were little changed after the American Petroleum Institute reported U.S. oil inventories slid 27,000 barrels to 371.7 million last week. Gasoline stockpiles gained 1.38 million to 201 million barrels. December oil advanced $2.75, or 3.2 percent, to $88.40 a barrel at 4:44 p.m. in electronic trading. Brent oil for December settlement increased $3.34, or 3.1 percent, to end the session at $111.07 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange. Gasoline supply may have dropped to 198 million barrels in the seven days ended Nov. 2, according to the survey. That would be the first decline in four weeks. The Energy Department is scheduled to release its inventory report at 10:30 a.m. tomorrow in Washington.

Silver Market Recap Report (CME)
The silver market might have caught most of its lift from the gold market today. However, gains in equities were significant enough to lift a number of physical commodity markets like silver today. Given that a number of technical levels were regained on the silver charts today, it is possible that silver was seeing technical short covering benefits. As suggested in the gold coverage, mid day press coverage was suggesting that gold was rising off ideas that Obama would retain the Presidency but that argument would seem to have suspect standing since the rally was in full bloom well ahead of any credible indications from the polls.

Copper Futures Post Biggest Gain in Almost Three Weeks (Bloomberg)
Copper futures posted the biggest gain in almost three weeks on speculation that demand will rise in China, the world’s biggest consumer of industrial metals, as new leaders take steps to boost the economy. Pressure is mounting on China’s officials to expand stimulus as they start a once-a-decade power transfer on Nov. 8 after the economy slowed for seven quarters in a row. Copper also gained as the dollar fell against a basket of major currencies, increasing the appeal of the metal as an alternative investment. “People are thinking the Chinese leadership change may mean more aggressive policy measures” on the economy, Harry Denny, a broker at Hoboken, New Jersey-based PVM Futures Inc., said in a telephone interview. “With the new leadership, we may see more of the infrastructure projects that a lot of people had expected in the third quarter.”
Copper futures for December delivery gained 1 percent to settle at $3.506 a pound at 1:24 p.m. on the Comex in New York, the biggest gain for a most-active contract since Oct. 17. Yesterday, the price touched $3.4485, the lowest since Sept. 5. “I suspect the market will shift to focusing on political and economic developments in China,” Nic Brown, the head of commodity research at Natixis SA in London, said in an e-mail. “We’re starting to see signs of recovery in Chinese data, which might be expected to strengthen further once the new political team finally takes its place.” On the London Metal Exchange, copper for delivery in three months rose 0.7 percent to $7,700 a metric ton ($3.49 a pound). Aluminum, nickel, lead, zinc and tin also gained.

Gold Jumps Most in 7 Weeks as U.S. Fiscal Cliff Awaits (Bloomberg)
Gold jumped the most in seven weeks, tracking gains in equities and commodities, on speculation that the U.S. will take additional measures to spur economic growth, regardless of the winner in today’s presidential election. The Standard & Poor’s GSCI Spot Index of 24 commodities advanced the most in a month, led by energy and metals, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained. The dollar fell. Whether President Barack Obama or Republican challenger Mitt Romney wins today, the next president will need to address a so- called fiscal cliff of more than $600 billion in tax increases and spending cuts that take effect in January unless Congress can reach a budget compromise. “The slowdown concerns remain, and the fiscal cliff is so huge that there is no quick solution,” Frank Lesh, a trader at FuturePath Trading in Chicago, said in a telephone interview. “Whoever comes to power cannot fix the problems immediately.”
Gold futures for December delivery rose 1.9 percent to settle at $1,715 an ounce at 1:53 p.m. on the Comex in New York, the biggest gain for a most-active contract since Sept. 13. Prices are up 9.5 percent this year, heading for a 12th straight annual gain as the Federal Reserve keeps interest rates at record lows to spur growth. UBS AG’s Edel Tully said Romney’s election may lead to a united government and stronger dollar, hurting gold. Bullion’s rally may be at risk if Romney wins as he may replace Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke at the end of his term and easing could end earlier than expected, Francisco Blanch, commodities research head at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, said yesterday.

Gold Market Recap Report (CME)
The sharp range up recovery today in gold caught some players by surprise as uncertainty from the election could have kept many on the sidelines today. However, a risk-on environment seemed to surface today in the wake of noted gains in US equities and that angle of thinking was given added credence in the wake of gains in a long list of physical commodities. Like many physical commodities, gold might have been feeding higher off short covering from last week's washout or perhaps gold is simply coming back into favor because the passing of the election should leave the fiscal cliff issue in a front and center standing. The Press was suggesting that gold was in favor off ideas that the incumbent would remain in office.

20121107 0952 Soy Oil & Palm Oil Related News.

Soybean Complex Market Recap (CME)
November Soybeans finished up 12 1/2 at 1516 3/4, 9 off the high and 11 up from the low. January Soybeans closed up 12 1/4 at 1515 1/2. This was 13 up from the low and 7 1/2 off the high. December Soymeal closed up 3.7 at 472.7. This was 3.7 up from the low and 1.5 off the high. December Soybean Oil finished up 0.36 at 48.68, 0.3 off the high and 0.33 up from the low. January soybeans saw double digit gains into the closing bell as traders positioned ahead of this Friday's USDA report. Outside markets were positive on the day which added to the risk on tone of the market. Traders noted that volume was light as most investors were waiting for the results of the election today. Expectations for a bearish USDA report this Friday along with thoughts that weather in South America was trending more favorable triggered another round of long liquidation yesterday but the market continues to deal with strong demand from China and a tightening world balance sheet before South America harvest begins in 2013. The trade believes the average US soybean yield may increase to 38.15 bushels per acre vs. the current USDA estimate of 37.8. Production is expected to increase by close to 30 million bushels although many traders feel demand may offset the entire rise in production due to the staggering pace of exports. This could be supportive to soybean prices in the long term.

EDIBLE OIL: Malaysian palm oil futures fell to the lowest in almost one month dropping for a third straight session, as concerns over rising stockpiles and uncertainty ahead of the U.S. elections weighed on prices. (Reuters)

VEGOILS-Palm oil extends losses, drops to 1-mth low; US elections eyed
Tue Nov 6, 2012 5:45am EST
* Prices fall to 2,370 ringgit, weakest since Oct. 8
    * Market weighed by stockpile concerns, U.S. elections
    * Palm oil to rebound to 2,470 ringgit -technicals

 (Updates throughout)
    By Chew Yee Kiat
    SINGAPORE, Nov 6 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures fell
to the lowest in almost one month on Tuesday, dropping for a
third straight session, as concerns over rising stockpiles and
uncertainty ahead of the U.S. elections weighed on prices.
    Inventory levels in Malaysia - the world's No.2 palm oil
producer - may climb to 2.67 million tonnes in October,
surpassing previous month's record at 2.48 million tonnes, a
Reuters survey showed on Tuesday.
    Industry regulator the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) will
issue October stocks data on the coming Monday.
    "Everybody is looking at the MPOB number that is expected to
reach 2.7 million tonnes, and the market is reacting badly to
that," said James Ratnam, an analyst with Malaysia's TA
    The benchmark January contract on the Bursa
Malaysia Derivatives Exchange fell 1.6 percent to close at 2,372
ringgit ($775) per tonne, just off its intraday low at 2,370
ringgit, the weakest since Oct. 8.
    Total traded volumes stood at 34,020 lots of 25 tonnes each,
higher than the usual 25,000 lots.
    Prices had edged up briefly before the midday break as an
almost 5 percent drop over the last two trading sessions lured
buyers. Worries that year-end floods in Malaysia could hit
supplies also checked losses.
    "So far I have not heard of any big impact from floods. This
is still a very early stage. The flood usually happens at the
end of the year, and depending on the strength, it could disrupt
supply and support prices."
    Traders also remained cautious ahead of the U.S. elections.
    President Barack Obama and Republican challenger Mitt Romney
were essentially deadlocked on election eve, polls show, raising
concerns of a cliffhanger delaying the outcome and roiling
markets, as it did during the extended presidential battle in
    Technicals showed palm oil could stage a rebound to 2,470
ringgit as a fall from the Oct. 25 high of 2,615 ringgit has
temporarily ended, said Reuters market analyst Wang Tao.

    In related markets, Brent crude held over $107 per barrel on
Tuesday, as uncertainty ahead of the U.S. elections and renewed
worries about Greece and the euro zone crisis headed traders'
    Other vegetable oil markets recovered from the previous
day's losses. U.S. soyoil for December delivery edged up
0.9 percent in late Asian trade, while the most active May 2013
soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange
inched up 0.1 percent.