Friday, July 15, 2011

Free IF Derivatives Sdn. Bhd. Seminar Event @ Ipoh.

IF Derivatives Sdn. Bhd. Seminar Event @ Ipoh

Date:15 July 2011 (Fri)
Venue:Impiana Hotel Ipoh,
Jalan 18, Jalan Raja Dr. Nazrin Shah, Ipoh 30250, Malaysia [Map]

06:30pm :Registration
07:00pm :Kick start of IF Derivatives by Chris Loh,
Executive Director, IF Derivatives Sdn. Bhd.
07:30pm :"Why Trade Futures ? How To Use Futures As An Investment Tools ?" by Alan Au Yong
09.00pm :Refreshments & Networking
09:30pm :End

Kindly call or SMS name to 016-6620881 for reservation.

Please scroll down for latest news and market study!

20110715 1808 FCPO EOD Daily Chart Study.

FCPO closed : 3116, changed : -28 points, volume : lower.
Bollinger band reading : correction range bound little downside biased.
MACD Histrogram : rising higher, buyer taking small exposure market.
Support : 3100, 3070, 3050, 3020 level.
Resistance : 3150, 3200, 3250, 3270 level.
Comment :
FCPO closed recorded marginal loss with slower volume changed hand while soy oil overnight closed lower and currently trading higher.
News wise, both export cargo surveyor reported improving export data up 12% and 4.6% respectively but price traded entirely negative territory as yesterday buying activities seem factored in.
Daily chart formed a doji bar candle closed nearer to upper Bollinger band level after market opened lower, traded range bound within tight 23 points range towards the end with last minute sell down to closed near the low of the day.
Chart reading still call for a correction range bound little downside biased market development testing support and resistance level.
When to buy : buy at support or weakness with quick cut loss and profit target.
When to sell : sell at resistant or strength with quick cut loss and profit target.

20110715 1732 FKLI EOD Daily Chart Study.

FKLI closed : 1580 changed : +1 point, volume : lower.
Bollinger band reading : correction range bound little upside biased.
MACD Histrogram : falling, seller taking small exposure.
Support : 1570, 1565, 1550, 1540 level.
Resistance : 1580, 1590, 1600, 1610 level.
Comment :
FKLI closed recorded small gain with decreasing volume transacted doing 2.5 points premium compare to cash market that closed little lower while Asia markets ended mixed and European markets continue to trade weaker with overnight U.S. market continue to closed lower.
News wise, another possible U.S. credit-rating downgrade this time by S&P, no immediate plan to stimulus U.S. economy statement by Federal Reserve chairman, weaker retailers sales data, unsettle U.S. debt limit problem are some of the additional negative news from the U.S. While on the European zone, market awaits bank stress test full  result.
China announced higher 1st half foreign direct investment and expanding measure to curb escalation housing price to smaller cities.
Daily chart formed an up doji bar candle with lower shadow closed right at middle Bollinger band level after market lower, moved side ways within 4 points range bound market followed by last half an hour push lifted price to closed near the high of the day.
Chart reading turned to suggesting a correction range bound little upside biased development testing support and resistance level.
When to buy : buy at support or weakness with quick cut loss and profit target.
When to sell : sell at resistant or strength with quick cut loss and profit target.

20110715 1512 Global Commodities Related News.

Wheat up, on track for biggest weekly rise since May
SINGAPORE, July 15 (Reuters) - Chicago wheat rose 0.4 percent, lifted by short-covering and speculative buying which has put the commodity on track for its biggest weekly gain since late May.
"The price action in wheat has been certainly of investment flows coming back to the market," said Paul Deane, agricultural commodity strategist at ANZ.

China soybean imports to recover in H2 -traders
XI'AN, China, July 15 (Reuters) - China's soybean imports are likely to recover in the second half of this year from the sluggish demand seen since late last year, but the market will remain cautious on government policies, said traders attending an oil and oilseeds conference in Xi'an.
Weak feedmeal consumption, especially from the pig industry, and government policies preventing companies from hiking vegetable oil prices due to inflation concerns dampened China's soybean demand in the first half.

Hot weather to stress US corn night and day
CHICAGO, July 14 (Reuters) - A heatwave forecast to hit the U.S. Midwest next week is expected to stress developing corn throughout the day and night, providing no relief for a crop that needs a break when the sun sets to realize its full potential.
After hot nights, corn leaves are often curled up, much like they typically are in the middle of the day, evidence that the plant was working throughout the night and burning through its much needed sugar reserves and using up water in the soil.

Dryness hastens Argentina wheat planting-exchange
BUENOS AIRES, July 7 (Reuters) - Dry weather hastened 2011/12 wheat planting last week in Argentina, where 4.7 million hectares are expected to be seeded with the grain this season, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said on Thursday.
Argentina is a leading wheat exporter and sends most of its output to neighboring Brazil.

Colombia coffee production falls for third month
BOGOTA, July 14 (Reuters) - Colombia's coffee output fell for the third straight month in June, declining 40 percent to 471,000 60-kg bags as heavy rains affected flowering, the country's coffee growers federation said on Thursday.
Colombia, the world's top producer of high-quality arabica, was hit by bad weather and fungus in the previous two years, cutting output by about a third of its norm. The country's coffee is among the world's most prized and has a big impact on global markets.

S.Korea's June coal imports fall 2 pct yr/yr
SEOUL, July 15 (Reuters) - South Korea's June coal imports declined 2 percent to 8.50 million tonnes from 8.69 million tonnes a year earlier, data from Korea Customs Service showed on Friday.
Customs data also showed earlier that the country's imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) rose by 5 percent to 2.12 million tonnes in June from a year earlier.

S.Korea's June LNG imports rise 5 pct yr/yr
SEOUL, July 15 (Reuters) - South Korea's imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) rose 5 percent in June from a year earlier, customs data showed on Friday.
South Korea, the world's second-largest LNG buyer after Japan, imported 2.12 million tonnes of LNG last month, compared to 2.01 million tonnes the year before, Korea Customs Service data showed.

Biggest US oil firms see refining as core strength
SAN FRANCISCO, July 14 (Reuters) - The very biggest U.S. oil companies seem perfectly happy holding on to their refining arms given that expertise in processing oil and gas after extraction looks likely to be more in demand in the future.
Exxon Mobil Corp  and Chevron Corp  have thrown their weight behind their refining arms despite repeated questions about their value in the modern oil business.

Oil rebounds as dollar weakens on S&P warning
SINGAPORE, July 15 (Reuters) - Oil rebounded on Friday on a weaker dollar after Standard & Poor's warned it may lower the credit rating of top consumer the United States, capping a volatile week marked by concern about the U.S. deficit and the euro zone's debt.
"If you look at what Bernanke said yesterday, it's going to be one day up, one day down," said Victor Say, an analyst at Informa Global Markets in Singapore.

China's Zhen Hua vies to supply fuels to Bangladesh
DHAKA/SINGAPORE, July 15 (Reuters) - Chinese state-owned Zhen Hua Oil Company may join the growing list of national oil companies supplying fuel to Bangladesh from the second half of 2011, a senior Bangladesh Petroleum Corp (BPC) official said on Friday.
Executives from the two companies are due to start talks next week in Dhaka, the official said, declining to be identified as he is not authorised to talk to the media. Officials at Zhen Hua's trading division could not be reached for comment.

LME copper nudges up on weak dollar
SHANGHAI, July 15 (Reuters) - London copper edged up, as the dollar weakened after Standard and Poor's warned there was a one-in-two chance it could cut the U.S. credit rating if no deal was reached on raising the government's debt ceiling.
Ratings agency Standard & Poor's has warned there is a one-in-two chance it could cut the United States' prized triple-A rating if a deal on raising the government's debt
ceiling is not agreed soon.

Freeport Indonesia production, shipments resume-workers
JAKARTA, July 15 (Reuters) - Production at Freeport McMoRan Copper & Gold's  giant Indonesia mine gradually resumed on Thursday, as workers returned following a strike, and two cargoes carrying 65,000 tonnes of concentrate were ready for shipping on Friday, workers said.
The union representing around 8,000 workers at the Grasberg mine said on Tuesday they had struck a deal to end a strike that began on July 4, though further talks and safety checks at the mine effectively meant work began on Thursday, the union said.

China's latest rare earth move disappoints EU, US
BEIJING/SHANGHAI, July 14 (Reuters) - China eased export curbs for rare earth elements on Thursday, restoring them to near-2010 levels in a bid to appease trading partners, but the European Union said the move did not ensure stable supplies and the United States said the Chinese were heading the wrong way.
China accounts for around 97 percent of the world's output of the 17 rare earth metals, which are crucial for global electronics production and the defense and renewable-energy industries. They are are used in a wide range of consumer products, from iPhones to electric car motors.

Gold pauses after record-setting rally; debt fears aid
SINGAPORE, July 15 (Reuters) - Gold took a breather, after setting record highs for two consecutive sessions, as dashed hopes for additional U.S. stimulus measures took some heat off, although the euro zone debt crisis and uncertainties on U.S. deficit talks continued to support sentiment.
"Bernanke's comments on possibilities of more stimulus on Wednesday played a big part pushing gold to record highs," said Hou Xinqiang, an analyst at Jinrui Futures in China.

Gold shines before euro zone meeting;dlr steadies
HONG KONG, July 15 (Reuters) - Gold slipped though was on track to match its biggest winning streak in four decades, with debt crises in the euro zone and the United States leaving investors few alternatives but to keep piling into the metal.
"This presents a much higher hurdle for policymakers and, as such, represents a more serious threat to the U.S. dollar," Elmer said in a note.

20110715 1147 Global Market & Commodities Related News.

GLOBAL MARKETS: Dollar reels after S&P credit warning; bonds firm
HONG KONG, July 15 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar fell in early Asian trade on Friday after ratings agency Standard & Poor's warned it would downgrade the United States credit rating while Asian stocks are expected to start on a weaker note following a lower close on Wall Street.
S&P said there is at least a 1 in 2 chance it could cut the U.S.'s much prized "AAA" rating if a deal on raising the government's debt ceiling is not agreed soon. Earlier this week, Moody's warned of a possible downgrade.

OIL: Oil falls as Bernanke says no easing yet
NEW YORK, July 14 (Reuters) - Oil prices fell for the first time in three days on Thursday after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said the central bank was not ready yet to take more monetary easing measures, dashing hopes that energy demand would get a boost from fresh economic stimulus.
"The big headline today for the oil market is Bernanke's qualification of what some expected to be QE3," said David Kirsch at PFC Energy. Many had expected the Fed to boost the economy with a third round of government bond buying, or quantitative easing, QE3 in market shorthand.

NATURAL GAS: Natgas trims early loss, still ends down after EIAs
NEW YORK, July 14 (Reuters) - Front-month U.S. natural gas futures trimmed morning losses but ended slightly lower on Thursday, as prospects for more severe heat next week partly offset early selling after a bearish weekly inventory report.
"I thought we'd see more selling given the (bearish) EIA number, but we got a late session bounce, maybe on the weather forecast," a West Coast trader said, noting strong heat returns to the Midwest and Northeast next week after a brief mild up.

EURO COAL: Prices stable, Aug S.African trades at $114.75
LONDON, July 14 (Reuters) - Prompt physical coal prices were stable on Thursday but few trades were reported.
"The market ought to be softening a bit more given the lack of demand but prices don't want to come down much," one European trader said

COMMODITIES: Most markets dive on Bernanke; gold hits record
NEW YORK, July 14 (Reuters) - Commodities tumbled on Thursday, erasing most gains from a day ago, after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke dashed hopes for another quick economic stimulus that could have boosted raw materials demand.
"Bernanke backed away from QE3," Richard Franulovich, senior currency trader at Westpac in New York, said, referring to the third round of quantitative easing markets had been expecting from the Fed.

20110715 1101 Malaysia Corporate Related News.

KLCI chart reading :
correction range bound upside biased.
DiGi set to seal two MVNO deals Bhd, the third largest operator, is expected to announce two mobile virtual network operator (MVNO) deals in the second half of the year. “It’s going to be a busy year for us as far as the MVNO space is concerned, it’s going to be exciting. We will be launching two MVNO in the second half this year,” DiGi chief executive officer Henrik Clausen said. Last year, DiGi announced an MVNO tie-up with Baraka Telecoms. However, the deal was off before the official launch of the service. (BT)

Pengerang – a petroleum hub in the making
New oil and gas (O&G) industry facilities in Pengerang on the southeastern tip of Johor will boost the town’s population to 40,000 and transform it into a much bigger petroleum hub than Kerteh, Terengganu. Menteri Besar Datuk Abdul Ghani Othman said this scenario was likely as Petronas would set up a RM60bn refinery and petrochemical integrated development (RAPID) petrochemical complex in Pengerang by 2015. (BT)

Tradewinds to develop integrated rubber-city
Tradewinds Plantation (TWSPlant) plans to develop a world-class integrated rubber city in Kota Putra, Kedah, and aims to attract investment from downstream players in the rubber industry by leveraging the ample supply of latex from the northern region of Peninsular Malaysia as well as southern Thailand. According to its chairman Datuk Wira Syed Abdul Jabbar, the project is formulated because of the ample supply of latex from the vast acreage of rubber plantations in the area, especially from Southern Thailand. (Financial Daily)

Tradewinds Plantation gets nod to buy Mardec for RM140m  
Tradewinds Plantation Bhd has received the green light from its  shareholders to acquire rubber processor Mardec Bhd for RM140m cash.  Chairman Datuk Wira Syed Abdul Jabbar Shahabudin said the acquisition  was part of Tradewinds Plantations' strategy to expand its rubber business  into downstream activities, complementing its existing rubber plantation  operations. (The Star)

Hua Yang proposes 1-for-3 bonus issue
Property player Hua Yang Bhd has proposed a 1-for-3 bonus issue to improve trading liquidity of its shares and increase its capital base. In a filing with Bursa Malaysia yesterday, Hua Yang said it expects the bonus issue, which will involve the issuance of 36 million shares based on its current share base of 108 million shares, to be completed in 2H11. The exercise will reduce its net assets per share to RM1.48 from RM2.03 as at 31 Mar 2011. (Financial Daily)

Hua Yang Q1 pre-tax surges to RM15.2m; proposed bonus  issue of 1 for 3 shares held  
Hua Yang Bhd's pre-tax profit surged 126% to RM15.26m in the first quarter  ended June 30, 2011 from RM6.75m in the same period last year. In a  statement today, the company said  revenue increased 66% to RM61.75m  from RM37.22m previously, while net profit expanded 135% to RM11.51m  from RM4.89m. The Company also proposes bonus issue shares of RM1  each in the company, on the basis of one bonus share for every three  existing shares held on an entitlement date to be determined later.  (Business Times)

Measat Global said to sell stakes in satellites
Measat Global Bhd, controlled by billionaire Tan Sri T Ananda Krishnan, has held talks with Eutelsat Communications SA and Asia Satellite Telecommunications on selling stakes in its satellites, according to three people familiar with the discussions. The negotiations may also lead to a partnership between Measat and one of the companies, two people said, declining to be identified because the discussion is private. An agreement would give the companies access to Measat’s four satellites and help share costs of future launches. A sale would help Ananda Krishnan, Malaysia’s second richest man, raise funds after buying out three companies last year for a total RM7.9bn. (Malaysian Reserve)

Higher gearing for SapuraCrest, Kencana
The merger of SapuraCrest Petroleum and Kencana Petroleum will see the new merged entity having RM1.84bn added to its books as borrowings due to the cash payment being made to shareholders of both companies in the proposed corporate exercise. Essentially, the new merged entity has to borrow the sum above from its investment bankers, Maybank Investment Bank and CIMB Investment Bank, to pay shareholders of SapuraCrest and Kencana to buy the assets and liabilities in both companies. (StarBiz)

AirAsia-ANA tie-up likely
AirAsia is likely to have a joint venture with Japan’s largest carrier – All Nippon Airways (ANA) – to set up a low cost airline likely to be called AirAsia Japan. An announcement on the collaboration is expected to be made next week and it would involve the setting up of a low cost carrier (LCC) and a hub in Japan by AirAsia. The LCC will serve the domestic market and eventually regional markets, sources say. (StarBiz)

Daya Materials gets RM120m job from B Braun
Daya Materials Bhd has secured a RM120m contract from B Braun Medical Industries SB to build a six storey building in Bayan Lepas, Penang. In a statement yesterday, Daya said it’s wholly owned subsidiary Daya CMT SB is a specialist industrial plant contractor, was awarded the contract on 22 June. The projects scheduled to begin this month, is expected to complete by July 2012. The project involves the construction of one storey of utility plant rooms, three storey of multi-level parking and a two-storey multi-purpose builing.(Financial Daily)

Dialog's unit to buy Indian firm for RM7.88m
Dialog Group Bhd's wholly-owned subsidiary, Dialog Systems (Asia) Pte  Ltd, is acquiring a 51% stake in India's Anewa Engineering Private Ltd for  RM7.88m. In a filing to Bursa Malaysia today, it said the proposed  transaction will further provides access to new customers in various parts of  the world, namely in the Middle East and India. (Business Times)

Atlan posts RM108.9m pre-tax profit in Q1
Atlan Holdings Bhd has registered a pre-tax profit of RM108.997m in the  first quarter ended May 31, 2011 compared with RM34.301 in the previous  corresponding quarter. Revenue for the quarter increased slightly to  RM177.292m from RM175.962m. (Business Times)

20110715 1102 Global Economic Related News.

Singapore: Economy shrank last quarter as manufacturing waned
Singapore’s economy shrank for the first time in three quarters as manufacturing slumped, adding to evidence the slowdowns in Europe and the US are curbing growth in Asia. The island’s currency weakened from a record. Gross domestic product fell an annualized 7.8% in the second quarter from the previous three months, when it climbed a revised 27.2%, the trade ministry said yesterday, citing preliminary data. (Bloomberg)

China: To expand efforts to curb growth in property prices
China will expand its efforts to curb the growth in residential prices to smaller cities after limiting home purchases in Beijing and Shanghai, according to a summary of a State Council meeting chaired by Premier Wen Jiabao. The government said so-called second and third-tier cities which have seen excessive price gains should restrict the number of homes each family is allowed to buy, according to the State Council or cabinet yesterday. China is intensifying property restrictions nationwide after developers posted gains in first-half sales and housing transactions climbed 31% last month, even after more curbs were added earlier this year. The central bank last week raised interest rates for the fifth time since October. (Bloomberg)

India: Inflation quickens to 9.44%, adding to rate pressure
India’s inflation accelerated, sustaining pressure on the central bank to tighten monetary policy this month, even as price gains that were less than economists estimated boosted optimism the longest stretch of interest-rate increases in a decade is nearing an end. The benchmark wholesale-price index rose 9.44% in June from a year earlier after a 9.06% jump in May, according to the commerce ministry. Food-price inflation quickened to a three-week high of 8.31% in the week ended 2 July, the ministry said yesterday. (Bloomberg)

EURO: Inflation held steady in June as energy costs retreated
Euro-region inflation remained steady in June as energy costs retreated and a worsening debt crisis undermined economic growth. The inflation rate in the 17-nation euro region rose 2.7% from a year earlier, the same as in May, the European Union’s statistics office in Luxembourg said yesterday. That’s in line with an initial estimate published on 30 June and above the European Central Bank’s 2% limit for a seventh month. European governments are stepping up spending cuts to fight the debt crisis, which is threatening to undermine economic growth. While energy costs retreated over the past months, the European Central Bank on July 7 raised borrowing costs for a second time this year. President Jean-Claude Trichet forecast inflation rates to “likely to stay clearly” above 2%. (Bloomberg)

US: Jobless claims declined more than forecast last week
The number of Americans filing first-time claims for unemployment benefits dropped last week to the lowest level since April, a sign weakness in the labor market may be starting to abate. Applications for jobless benefits decreased 22,000 in the week ended 9 July to 405,000, Labor Department figures showed yesterday. The data included fewer layoffs in the auto industry than typical this time of the year, according to an agency spokesman. (Bloomberg)

US: Retail sales stagnate on higher unemployment
Sales at US retailers stagnated in June, highlighting weakness in consumer demand that accounts for 70% of the economy. Purchases rose 0.1%, the Commerce Department said yesterday in Washington. Sales excluding autos were little changed, the poorest performance since July 2010. Wholesale prices fell more than forecast in June on lower energy costs, the Labor Department said. Americans contending with declining home values and unemployment above 9% are holding back on spending, prompting retailers such as Target Corp to sweeten discounts. (Bloomberg)

20110715 1043 Global Market Related News.

 DJIA chart reading :  correction range bound upside biased.

Hang Seng chart reading : side way range bound. 

Asian Commodity Stocks Drop on U.S. Concern (Source: Bloomberg)
Asian commodity stocks dropped as oil and metal prices fell after U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said he won’t act immediately to stimulate the world’s biggest economy, which was placed on Creditwatch negative by Standard & Poor’s. BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP), the world’s largest mining company and Australia’s No. 1 oil producer, sank 1.9 percent. Woodside Petroleum Ltd. (WPL), the nation’s second-biggest oil and gas producer, lost 1.6 percent in Sydney. Mitsubishi Corp. (8058), Japan’s largest commodities trader, dropped 0.3 percent in Tokyo. Japanese utility stocks advanced.

Moody's U.S. warning hurts stocks, dollar
LONDON, July 14 (Reuters) - Rating agency Moody's warning that the U.S. economy's top credit ranking may be in danger weakened world stocks , hit the dollar and helped push gold to a record high.
"The U.S. debt situation is annoying. It's politics pure and simple. I guess they'll get out of it in time so no harm will be done," said Koen De Leus, strategist at KBC Securities.

Geithner Says No More Time for Debt Talk (Source: Bloomberg)
Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner warned lawmakers there’s no possible extension to the time limit to raise the federal debt ceiling as Standard & Poor’s put the U.S. sovereign rating on watch for a downgrade. There’s “no way to give Congress more time” on lifting the debt limit, Geithner said after meeting with Democratic lawmakers on Capitol Hill in Washington. He has repeatedly said U.S. borrowing authority will end on Aug. 2 without congressional action. Geithner’s remarks suggested the Treasury Department is approaching the end of its efforts to shift federal cash flows to avert a breach of the mandated borrowing limit. S&P today joined Moody’s Investors Service in warning that the nation may lose its top AAA rating, saying that there’s a “small, though increasing” risk of a default on U.S. debt obligations.

Bernanke: No Plans Now for Bond Purchases (Source: Bloomberg)
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke told Congress that the central bank isn’t currently ready to embark on a third round of government bond-buying to stimulate the economy. “We’re not prepared at this point to take further action,” Bernanke said today, in response to a question from Senate Banking Committee Chairman Tim Johnson, a Democrat from South Dakota. Johnson asked Bernanke why the Fed wasn’t immediately starting a new stimulus program given the weak economic recovery and rising unemployment. Stocks fell, driving the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index to the lowest level of the month. The S&P declined 0.7 percent to 1,308.89 at 3:17 p.m. in New York after rising as much as 0.7 percent. Gold futures pared gains after reaching a record $1,594.90 an ounce.

Retail Sales in U.S. Stagnate as Rising Unemployment Keeps Consumers Away (Source: Bloomberg)
Sales at U.S. retailers stagnated in June, highlighting weakness in consumer demand that accounts for 70 percent of the economy. Purchases rose 0.1 percent, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. Sales excluding autos were little changed, the poorest performance since July 2010. Wholesale prices fell more than forecast in June on lower energy costs, the Labor Department said. Americans contending with declining home values and unemployment above 9 percent are holding back on spending, prompting retailers such as Target Corp. to sweeten discounts. Another report today showed that first-time claims for unemployment benefits fell last week to the lowest level since April, indicating dismissals may start to abate.

Bernanke Says Failure to Raise Debt Limit Would Be ‘Self-Inflicted Wound’ (Source: Bloomberg)
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke warned lawmakers that they would cause a “self- inflicted wound” should they prompt a credit-rating downgrade by failing to raise the $14.3 trillion U.S. debt ceiling. Congress should recognize it’s “tremendously important that we have the confidence of the world in terms of willingness to hold Treasuries, to trade in Treasuries, to maintain a liquid market in Treasuries,” he said today in testimony to the Senate Banking Committee. “It’s a very important asset and losing that credit rating is, again, I think a self-inflicted wound.”

U.S. May Have Its Credit Ratings Cut by S&P (Source: Bloomberg)
The U.S. may have its AAA long-term and A-1+ short-term credit ratings cut by Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services, which said there is an increasing risk of a substantial policy stalemate enduring beyond any near-term agreement to raise the debt ceiling. S&P put the ratings on Creditwatch negative, meaning there’s a one-in-two chance they may be cut in the next 90 days. The outlook on the AAA rating was revised to negative from stable by S&P on April 18.

Consumer Comfort in U.S. Rose Last Week on Boost in Finances (Source: Bloomberg)
Consumer confidence in the U.S. rose last week as households became more upbeat about the state of their finances and optimism climbed among wealthier Americans. The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index increased to minus 43.9 for the period ended July 10 from minus 45.5 the prior week. Even with the gain, which is within the survey’s 3-point margin of error, the gauge is lower than it was at the start of the year.

Moody’s Downgrade Warning Adds Pressure on U.S. Debt Deal (Source: Bloomberg)
Moody’s Investors Service raised the pressure on U.S. lawmakers to increase the government’s $14.3 trillion debt limit by placing the nation’s credit rating under review for a downgrade. The U.S., rated Aaa since 1917, was put on review for the first time since 1996 on concern the debt threshold won’t be raised in time to prevent a missed interest or principal payment on outstanding bonds and notes, even though the risk remains low, Moody’s said in a statement yesterday. The rating may be reduced to the Aa range, and there is no assurance Moody’s would restore its top rating, even if a default is quickly “cured.”

U.S. Jobless Claims Declined More Than Forecast Last Week (Source: Bloomberg)
The number of Americans filing first-time claims for unemployment benefits dropped last week to the lowest level since April, a sign weakness in the labor market may be starting to abate. Applications for jobless benefits decreased 22,000 in the week ended July 9 to 405,000, Labor Department figures showed today. Economists forecast 415,000 claims, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey. The data included fewer layoffs in the auto industry than typical this time of the year, according to an agency spokesman.

Dollar Falls as S&P Puts U.S. on Review (Source: Bloomberg)
The dollar weakened against most of its major counterparts after Standard & Poor’s became the second ratings company this week to say it may downgrade the U.S.’s top credit grade.

U.S. Stocks Fall After Bernanke Damps Speculation on Immediate Stimulus (Source: Bloomberg)
U.S. stocks fell, driving the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index to the lowest level of the month, as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said he’s not prepared to take immediate action to stimulate the economy. Raw-material producers, technology and industrial companies lost the most among the 10 main industries in the S&P 500 Index (SPX), which erased a gain of as much as 0.7 percent. Marriott International Inc. dropped 6.6 percent on a lower-than-estimated earnings forecast. JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) rallied 1.8 percent after investment banking profit surged and more customers paid their credit-card bills on time.

Moody's puts U.S. ratings on review for downgrade
NEW YORK, July 13 (Reuters) - The United States may lose its top-notch credit rating in the next few weeks if lawmakers fail to increase the country's legal borrowing limit and the government misses debt payments, Moody's Investors Service warned on Wednesday.
Moody's is the first of the big-three credit rating agencies to place the United States' Aaa rating on review for a possible downgrade, meaning the agency is close to cutting the country's rating.

China Bernanke "prepared to respond" if economy worsens
WASHINGTON, July 13 (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve is ready to ease monetary policy further if economic growth and inflation slow much more, Chairman Ben Bernanke said on Wednesday, giving a boost to the bruised stock market.
While holding to a view that recent economic softness would eventually pass, he appeared less confident in that projection and more willing to entertain the possibility of another round of stimulus.

China 1st half foreign direct investment  up 18.4% from a year ago. (Source: Reuters)

China to Expand Housing Curbs in Smaller Cities (Source: Bloomberg)
China will expand its efforts to curb the growth in residential prices to smaller cities after limiting home purchases in Beijing and Shanghai, according to a summary of a State Council meeting chaired by Premier Wen Jiabao. The government said so-called second and third-tier cities which have seen excessive price gains should restrict the number of homes each family is allowed to buy, according to the State Council or cabinet yesterday. China is intensifying property restrictions nationwide after developers posted gains in first-half sales and housing transactions climbed 31 percent last month, even after more curbs were added earlier this year. The central bank last week raised interest rates for the fifth time since October.

China’s Stocks Drop on Property Tightening Measures, Narrowing Week’s Gain (Source: Bloomberg)
China’s stocks fell, narrowing this week’s gains, after the government said it will expand measures to curb property-price gains to smaller cities.

China May Sustain 9% Growth Pace for 2011 With Investment Moving Inland (Source: Bloomberg)
China may maintain growth of about 9 percent this year, avoiding a “hard landing,” as spending on low-cost homes and developing inland provinces counters the impact of Europe’s debt crisis and monetary tightening. Investment by local governments and private businesses helped drive a 9.5 percent gain in second-quarter gross domestic product from a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said in Beijing yesterday. That was faster than estimated as growth in industrial output and retail sales accelerated and copper and aluminum production reached records.

Japanese Stocks Advance, Led by Appliance-Retailers on Subsidy Report (Source: Bloomberg)
Japanese stocks rose, trimming declines for the week on the Nikkei 225 Stock Average, as appliance retailers gained on a report the government may revive subsidies to get consumers to buy energy-saving products.

Bank of Korea Reduces Economic Growth Forecast for 2011 on Demand Slowdown (Source: Bloomberg)
The Bank of Korea lowered its economic growth forecast for this year on an expected slowdown in domestic demand, while raising the projection of inflation to its target limit. South Korea’s economy will expand 4.3 percent, compared with the 4.5 percent growth estimated in April, the central bank said today in a statement. Consumer prices are expected to rise 4 percent, higher than the earlier 3.9 percent gain forecast.

Indian inflation quickens; another rate rise expected
NEW DELHI, July 14 (Reuters) - India's inflation quickened in June, driven by higher prices of manufactured goods and fuel, adding pressure on the central bank to raise rates this month despite signs of slowing growth in Asia's third-largest economy.
New Delhi raised local prices of diesel, cooking gas and kerosene last month to cushion its finances and provide relief to government oil companies reeling from revenue losses on state-set fuel prices, adding to inflationary pressure.

European Bank Stress Tests Compromised by Greek Non-Default, German Mutiny (Source: Bloomberg)
European regulators’ attempts to bolster confidence in the region’s banking industry today are being undermined by their unwillingness to test for a Greek default and a mutiny by Germany’s Landesbank Hessen-Thueringen. The European Banking Authority will release the results of the stress tests for 91 banks as part of an effort to reassure investors the region’s banks have sufficient capital. Helaba, as the landesbank is known, refused to allow the EBA to publish its results in full, saying the EBA’s data “would lead to a halving of the core capital without legal grounds.” German regulator Bafin has also attacked the London-based EBA. Bafin Chairman Jochen Sanio said last month the watchdog lacks “legitimacy.”

Deutsche Boerse Shareholders Approve $9.4 Billion NYSE Euronext Takeover (Source: Bloomberg)
Deutsche Boerse AG (DB1) shareholders approved its $9.2 billion takeover of NYSE Euronext, surmounting the biggest hurdle yet to gain control of the 219-year-old exchange company and create the world’s biggest bourse operator. Owners holding more than 80 percent of Deutsche Boerse shares backed the agreement, surpassing the 75 percent needed for approval, the Frankfurt-based exchange said in a statement today. The all-stock transaction will give Deutsche Boerse 60 percent of the combined entity, while NYSE Euronext Chief Executive Officer Duncan Niederauer will run the organization.

Italian, Spanish Goverment Bonds Fall After Italy Auction, Austerity Vote (Source: Bloomberg)
Italian government bonds declined after borrowing costs rose to a three-year high at a sale of five-year securities today. Greek bonds fell as Fitch Ratings cut the nation’s credit rating three levels to CCC and said default is a “real possibility.” Ireland’s yields reached records, while Spanish bonds fell. Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi won a Senate confidence vote on an austerity package aimed at taming the nation’s 1.8 trillion euro ($2.6 trillion) debt burden. “The supply is out of the way, but the picture remains unchanged,” said Michael Leister, a fixed-income analyst at WestLB AG in London. “We have still the unresolved Greek situation and contagion worries, and the risk that Italy may run into a self-sustaining spiral of funding costs. The market is pretty worried.”

FOREX-Dollar soft on QE3 speculation, debt hangover
LONDON, July 14 (Reuters) - The dollar hit a record low against the Swiss franc and a four-month trough versus the yen on Thursday on expectations of further monetary easing by the Federal Reserve and a credit warning on U.S. debt.
Ratings agency Moody's issued a warning on the United States' credit rating just hours after Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke sent the dollar tumbling by suggesting to Congress that the central bank could provide more stimulus if the economy weakened further.

20110715 1042 Global Commodities Related News.

Corn (Source: CME)
US corn futures end mixed, climbing late despite outside market pressure as weather forecasts fuel worry about the crop. Analysts say midday weather forecasts were supportive, reinforcing that next week will be very hot and dry across much of the corn belt. Traders fear that the heat will hurt yields and exacerbate a tight supply outlook. The market faced pressure from falling crude oil and equities amid pessimism about the economy. September CBOT corn gained 4c to $6.90 3/4 per bushel while December slipped 1 1/4c to $6.78 1/2.

Wheat (Source: CME)
U.S. wheat futures end mixed, ending the sharp rally of the past two days, as traders locked in profits in the face of increased export competition and the absence of external market support. Without a fresh spark to encourage additional buying, traders were content to take some profits off the table, said Shawn McCambridge, senior grains analyst with Jeffries Bache in Chicago. A recovery in the U.S. dollar served as another negative factor for prices. However, Minneapolis spring wheat and Kansas City hard red winter wheat ended higher, as supplies of high protein wheat are tighter than Chicago soft red winter wheat, analysts said. CBOT Sept wheat end down 1% at $7.07, KCBT September rose 0.4% to $7.65 1/4 and MGEX September climbed 1% to $8.29.

Rice (Source: CME)
US rice futures continued to surge, ending higher on a troubled US crop and strong world prices. A sharp reduction in planted acreage--along with hot, dry weather--is expected to limit this year's crop, analysts say. They add that world prices and uncertainty about Thailand's rice policies are supportive as well. And a commercial buyer notes technical buying has helped accelerate gains, and in the process creating a huge premium to cash prices. September CBOT rice ends up 1.9% to $17/hundredweight and is up almost $3 from a June 30 intraday low.

U.S. corn, wheat steady near 4-week top, soy flat
SINGAPORE, July 14 (Reuters) - Chicago corn and wheat were steady , after a strong rally in the last two sessions drove prices to a 4-week top, supported by bullish fundamentals and the possibility of more U.S. Federal Reserve stimulus.
"The focus is on debt problems in the U.S. and Europe and what is happening in the equity markets," said Ker Chung Yang, analyst at Phillip Futures in Singapore.

French analyst hikes EU wheat forecast after rain
PARIS, July 14 (Reuters) - French analyst Strategie Grains on Thursday raised sharply its outlook for soft wheat output in the European Union after rain last month revived crops parched by a spring drought in the west of the bloc.
The analyst increased its estimate of 2011 soft wheat production in the EU by 4.6 million tonnes to 130.2 million tonnes, now up 2 percent on last year's harvest.

Missouri River floodwaters taking more farmland
KANSAS CITY, Mo, July 13 (Reuters) - The swollen Missouri River was swamping more farmland in Missouri on Wednesday as federal officials began to prepare for a gradual reduction in water releases from a key dam starting later in July.
Residents from Montana through Missouri have built flood barriers and evacuated homes for more than a thousand miles over the last two months as melting snow and heavy rains overwhelmed six reservoirs on the Upper Missouri River.

Strategie Grains: EU 2011-12 Grain View +6.6 Mln Tons At 282.3 Mln Tons (Source: CME)
Influential analyst Strategie Grains raised its estimate for European grain production in 2011-12 by 6.6 million metric tons to 282.3 million tons as belated rains helped the region's parched crops. Much of the rise was down to "excellent conditions" for soft wheat crops, which the analyst forecast will reap 130.2 million tons this season, 4.6 million tons higher than previously thought and 2.9 million tons more than in 2010-11. Good rainfall particularly helped to fill out crops in the European Union's largest producers--France, Germany and the U.K.--which are now expected to harvest 3.3 million tons more than had been expected. "In these countries, harvest outcomes are now set to be much better than had seemed possible a month ago," said Strategie Grains. The estimates follow a raft of upgrades from analysts as the effects of severe drought earlier this year were eased by much-needed rainfall. The U.S. Department of Agriculture Tuesday pegged EU wheat output at 132.12 million tons.
Higher production is also expected to boost EU exports onto the world market by 3.2 million tons, leaving the supply and demand balance in the bloc "in balance" despite a sharp drawdown in stocks in 2010-11. Global soft wheat production is expected to hit 671 million tons, up by four million tons compared to Strategie Grain's previous prediction and up 20 million tons on last year due to better harvests in Russia and Ukraine. However, Strategie Grains said it expected the "overall world environment [to] remain fragile" in 2011-12, with the global ending stocks-to-use ratio estimated at 23.8%. "Even though EU prices may be subject to downward pressure from the Black Sea countries through the summer and even autumn, they retain an increase potential because US and world stocks are forecast so low," said the analyst. EU barley production is expected to total 52.9 million tons, 700,000 tons higher than predicted last month.
Forecast corn output was also revised 1.2 million tons higher to 60.2 million tons, compared with 55 million tons last year.

Australian Transgenic Wheat Trials Stopped By Greenpeace (Source: CME)
Two environmental activists from Greenpeace smashed experimental trials of genetically modified wheat being conducted by Australia's premier science agency, the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization, Greenpeace said. Two women using mechanical slashers destroyed the crops in a raid on the outskirts of Canberra, according to a statement from Greenpeace. "GM wheat has already been rejected in Canada, North America, Russia and the E.U.," Greenpeace food campaigner Laura Kelly said in a statement. "With Csiro being used as a front for foreign biotech companies, Australia's multibillion dollar wheat industry risks becoming a petri dish for these risky and secret experiments."

Indonesia wheat ample, India seen as last resort
JAKARTA, July 13 (Reuters) - Indonesia has ample wheat for the festive season and will seek Indian supply only as a last resort, the head of an industry group said on Wednesday, dampening hopes that the major Asian buyer would take up exports from India.
Indonesia's wheat grain inventory is estimated at 1.5 million tonnes, enough for three months of consumption that includes the high-demand period during the Ramadan fasting month in August and Eid al-Fitr festivities, said Ratna Sari Loppies, executive director of the Indonesian Wheat Flour Mills Association.

India misses the bus with wheat export decision
NEW DELHI/SINGAPORE, July 13 (Reuters) - India's plan to sell wheat after a four-year ban will find few takers as resumption of Russian exports is likely to flood the market with cheaper grain, already a nightmare for top suppliers the United States and Australia.
New Delhi's move will only add pressure to benchmark U.S. wheat futures , which have slid more than 14 percent since the start of June, dragged down by prospects of Black Sea supplies that are larger than expected.

Argentina Sunflower Seed Chamber Sees Area Up 10% On Year (Source: CME)
Argentina's sunflower seed area is expected to rise 10% on the year in the 2011-12 season as soaring prices spur farmers to increase planting, the president of the sunflower association Asagir, Ricardo Negri, said in an interview with Dow Jones Newswires. Argentina is the world's No.2 sunflower oil exporter, trailing only the Ukraine last year, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Argentina accounts for almost a fifth of global export supply, Negri said. Argentina's fields are in good shape after recent steady showers, and sunflower planting is set to kick off in about a month. Farmers are optimistic with current sunflower oil export values of $2,400 a metric ton, up from $950 a ton a year ago, Negri said. Argentina planted 1.65 million hectares with sunflowers the previous season, he said.
Despite the positive signs from local farmers, the USDA is expecting Argentina's sunflower oil production from the 2011-12 season to total 1.26 million metric tons, unchanged from 2010-11. The USDA pegs Argentina's 2011-12 exports at 950,000 tons, also unchanged on the year. Sunflower seed growers are also enjoying a relatively open market, largely free from government intervention. The sunflower seed market has largely escaped the policies which farmers of other products complain distorts markets and sharply lowers their sales price. The left-leaning, populist government of president Cristina Kirchner tightly controls corn and wheat exports to keep a lid on domestic prices, only clearing shipments once local supply has been set aside. Farm exports are also taxed heavily both to raise revenue and keep down grocery bills. Soybeans carry a 35% duty and sunflower seed oil exports a 30% tax.
The fact that just a quarter of sunflower seed oil production is enough to meet local demand has helped the commodity avoid coming under government scrutiny, Negri said. The industry has also developed its own system to keep down local sunflower oil prices and avoid government attention. Producers sell discounted sunflower oil to the domestic market, with those selling locally compensated by part of the fat profits enjoyed by exporters. While Argentina's farmers are flourishing amid a global commodities price boom despite the government's policies, they worry about being vulnerable if the bubble bursts. "If prices fall, many farmers in marginal areas will stop growing crops with export taxes at such high levels," Negri said.

Soybeans Extend Longest Rally Since August as Hot Spell May Hurt U.S. Crop (Source: Bloomberg)
Soybeans rose, extending the longest rally since August, on speculation that unusually hot weather during the next month will curb crop yields in the U.S., the world’s biggest grower and exporter. Temperatures will be as much as 12 degrees Fahrenheit above normal for five days starting July 16 in the Midwest, the main growing region, before cooler weather and rain return, the National Weather Service said. July may rank as the sixth warmest since 1960, T-Storm Weather LLC said in a report. Soybean prices are up 7 percent this month.

Sugar Falls Most in Eight Weeks on Brazil Crop Outlook; Coffee, Cocoa Drop (Source: Bloomberg)
Sugar fell the most in eight weeks on signs that production in Brazil, the world’s biggest grower, will be higher than some analysts expected. Coffee and cocoa retreated. The sugar industry group Unica cut its output forecast for the Center South, Brazil’s largest producing region, by 2.2 million metric tons to 32.4 million. Analysts expected at least a 3 million-ton reduction due, said Jack Scoville, a vice president for Price Futures Group Inc. Before today, prices rose 24 percent in the past month on supply concerns.

Sugar extends retreat from contract highs, cocoa up
LONDON, July 14 (Reuters) - Raw sugar futures on ICE eased in early trade as the market retreated further from the prior session's contract highs while cocoa edged up aided partly by supportive second quarter European grind data.
ICE raw sugar futures were lower with the market finally suffering a modest setback following a prolonged advance which culminated with contract highs being established on Wednesday.

Nicaragua coffee exports drop 47 pct in June
MANAGUA, July 13 (Reuters) - Coffee exports from Nicaragua fell 47 percent in June, bringing accumulated shipments for the harvest season down by more than 4 percent compared to last year, the national export board said on Wednesday.
The coffee harvesting season in the region begins in October and comes to a close in September, with the bulk of picking mostly over in the summer months.

Brazil sugar cane crop to post 1st drop in a decade
SAO PAULO, July 13 (Reuters) - Sugar cane output in Brazil, the world's top producer and exporter, will post its first annual decline in a decade as industry group Unica on Wednesday slashed its forecast for the center-south crop in 2011/12 by 6.2 percent.
Analysts had revised down their production forecasts due to lower yields from aging plants and weather problems. Still, the new forecast, for 533.5 million tonnes, was at the lower end of market expectations.

Brazil CS cane crush down 18 pct from yr ago
BRASILIA, July 13 (Reuters) - Crushing of Brazil's 2011/12 cane crop reached 176.9 million tonnes by July 1, down 18 percent from 215.7 million tonnes by this time a year ago, cane industry association Unica said on Wednesday.
Cumulative sugar production this season until July 1 reached 9.34 million tonnes, 19 percent less than the 11.5 million tonnes produced by the same time last year.

Nestle gives farmers disease-resistant cocoa trees
BONOUA, Ivory Coast, July 13 (Reuters) - Nestle  on Wednesday ramped up its distribution of disease-resistant cocoa trees to farmers in Ivory Coast, part of a plan to boost productivity per hectare and improve the notoriously poor quality of the top grower's cocoa beans.
The world's biggest food maker, which has distributed some 140,000 saplings since 2009, said it will hand out 600,000 saplings by the end of the month and a further one million next year in a bid to raise productivity on farms.

European Q2 cocoa grindings seen slightly up on year
LONDON, July 13 (Reuters) - Second quarter European cocoa grindings are expected to be slightly up on the same period last year, as the temporary closure of capacity in top producer Ivory Coast continued to boost grindings in other regions in April and May, dealers said.
First quarter European grindings rose by 3.5 percent on the year earlier, partly boosted by the lack of activity in Ivory Coast.

Philippines may export 200,000T sugar on top of US quota
MANILA, July 13 (Reuters) - The Philippines says it can export up to 200,000 tonnes of raw sugar this year on top of its U.S. quota commitments, but it may not have a lasting impact on global prices as the shipments will only partly offset expected crop losses in Brazil.
The Southeast Asian country would start selling raw sugar this month to Japan and Indonesia, with committed shipments of 35,892 tonnes, Rosemarie Gumera, manager at the policy and planning unit of the state agency Sugar Regulatory Administration (SRA), told Reuters.

Oil Drops After Bernanke Says Fed Isn’t Planning More Stimulus (Source: Bloomberg)
Oil in New York fell, reaching a record discount to Brent crude, after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the Fed isn’t planning more bond-buying to stimulate economic growth. Futures dropped 2.4 percent after Bernanke told Congress that the central bank would be cautious about initiating a third round of quantitative easing because of higher inflation this year. Oil climbed as much as 0.8 percent earlier when the Labor Department said applications for unemployment benefits decreased 22,000 to 405,000 last week.

Rio Q2 iron ore output rises, coal still recovering
SYDNEY/LONDON, July 14 (Reuters) - Global miner Rio Tinto   is on track to hit its 2011 iron ore production target after posting on Thursday a 12 percent rise in second-quarter output on the year, but its Australian coal operations were still recovering from floods.
Flooding and cyclone damage to mining operations contributed to the biggest slump in 20 years in Australia's GDP in the first quarter. The economy relies on coal as its single largest export earner and has been bracing for a fall of 5 percent in shipments.

China sets second batch rare earth export quotas at 15,738 tonnes
SHANGHAI, July 14 (Reuters) - China's Ministry of Commerce said on Thursday it was issuing a second batch of rare earth export quotas for this year, with the second batch totalling 15,738 tonnes.
China produces 97 percent of the world's supply of rare earths, a group of 17 minerals used in electronics and defence and renewable energy industries.

China Almost Doubles Rare-Earth Export Quota (Source: Bloomberg)
China, the world’s biggest supplier of rare earths, almost doubled its export quota for the second half of 2011, a change the European Union said actually adds restrictions to overseas shipments. Less than two weeks after the World Trade Organization said Chinese limits on raw-material exports break global trade rules, the country yesterday raised the quota for 26 companies to 15,738 metric tons. That compares with 7,976 tons a year earlier and brings the limit to 30,184 tons for 2011, little changed from 30,258 tons in 2010, government figures show.

China's H2 aluminium output to rise 8 pct on H1 -industry
HONG KONG, July 14 (Reuters) - China's production of primary aluminium is likely to rise at least 8 percent in the second half of the year from the first, thanks to new capacity and steady prices that prompt smelters to use idle capacity, industry sources said on Thursday.
Industry sources said second-half output would not be hurt  by Beijing's tighter curbs on new projects because the government was targeting projects planned but not completed.

Indonesia's Timah sees lower exports, higher revenue-paper
JAKARTA, July 14 (Reuters) - Indonesia's Timah , the world's largest integrated tin miner, expects a slight decline in sales this year, but revenue could rise on higher tin prices, Bisnis Indonesia reported on Thursday.
Production and sales of refined tin were forecast to reach 40,000 tonnes in 2011, down slightly from 40,413 tonnes in 2010 due to tough competition from illegal miners in the main producing island of Bangka and Belitung, Chief Executive Wachid Usman was quoted as saying on Wednesday.

METALS-Copper up on growth prospects, risk aversion caps gain
LONDON, July 14 (Reuters) - Copper was steady on Thursday on the London Metal Exchange, underpinned by prospects of improving global economic growth in the second half while supply remains constrained, but a flight from risk in wider markets curtailed gains.
Three-month copper  on the LME was untraded in official rings, but quoted at $9,670/9,680 a tonne, up from a close of $9,650 a tonne on Wednesday.

PRECIOUS-Gold hits record after Moody's warning, easing hints
LONDON July 14 (Reuters) - Gold prices hit record highs for a second day on Thursday after hints of further policy easing from the Federal Reserve and a Moody's warning the United States may lose its top-notch credit rating hurt the dollar and sparked buying of safe-haven assets.
The precious metal was also strengthened by concerns over euro zone debt levels, which have intensified over delays to policymakers' plans to discuss the crisis and after Greece's credit rating was downgraded by Fitch late on Wednesday.  

Gold Rises to Record on ‘Witch’s Brew’ of U.S., Europe Debt, Currency Woes (Source: Bloomberg)
Gold futures rose to a record for the second straight day on speculation that debt woes in the U.S. and Europe will escalate, boosting the appeal of the precious metal as a haven. Silver climbed to a nine-week high. Moody’s Investors Service said the U.S. may lose the Aaa credit rating held since 1917. Fitch Ratings said that a default in Greece is a “real possibility.” The dollar headed for the third consecutive drop against a basket of currencies.

Gold May Extend Gains on Fed Stimulus Signal, Debt Concern, Survey Shows (Source: Bloomberg)
Gold may extend gains from a record as concern about more U.S. economic stimulus and debt woes in the country and Europe boost demand for a protection of wealth, a survey found. Twenty-four of 27 traders, investors and analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, or 89 percent, said bullion will rise next week. One predicted lower prices and two were neutral. Gold for August delivery was up 2.9 percent for this week at $1,586 an ounce by 11:08 a.m. yesterday on the Comex in New York after earlier in the day touching a record $1,594.90.

20110715 1039 Soy Oil & Palm Oil Related News.

ITS CPO export up 12% to 752,047 tonnes for the period of 1~15 Jul 2011.
SGS CPO export up 4.6% to 731,842 tonnes for the period of 1~15 Jul 2011.

Soybeans (Source: CME)
U.S. soybean futures managed to sustain price strength, supported by ongoing concerns about production and weather. The market continues to price in hotter and drier weather forecasts, building risk premium in prices, as traders look to weather particularly ahead of the crop's critical yield producing stage in August. A drop in the U.S. dollar helped support higher prices as well. CBOT November soybeans end up 0.3% at $13.84 a bushel.

Soybean Meal/Oil (Source: CME)
Soy product futures end mixed, with soymeal rising in unison with soybeans. Soyoil futures stumbled, succumbing to spillover pressure from crude oil futures and lackluster near term export demand, analysts said. CBOT December soyoil finished down 0.5% and December soymeal climbed 0.7%.

Palm up on global markets despite ample supply
KUALA LUMPUR, July 14 (Reuters) - Palm oil futures hit a near three-week high  on the back of firmer grains complex and crude oil, despite growing stocks in No.2 producer Malaysia.
"The external markets and euro debt woes are in play in the market, it's not the demand-supply fundamentals that moves the trade," said a trader in Kuala Lumpur.

China 2011/12 soybean imports seen at 56.1-56.6 mln tonnes - COFCO official
XI'AN, July 14 (Reuters) - China's soybean imports in the 2011/12 crushing year are likely to regain upward momentum, rising nearly 10 percent from a year earlier, after an expected mild increase in 2010/11, said a COFCO official on Thursday.
Soybean imports were expected to rise 8.7 to 9.7 percent year on year to 56.1 million to 56.6 million tonnes in the crushing year starting October, said Zhang Jinjun, a deputy general manager with the oil and oilseeds department under state-owned China National Cereals, Oils and Foodstuffs Corp, at a conference in Xi'an.

India June vegoil imports up 30 pct m/m-trade body
NEW DELHI, July 14 (Reuters) - India's vegetable oil imports in June rose to 862,550 tonnes from 664,133 tonnes in the previous month, a leading trade body said on Thursday, the third straight monthly rise and slightly above the average forecast in a Reuters poll.
The imports are the highest since November, as expected by traders, as local supplies remain poor.

NOPA June U.S. soy crush seen at 118.9 mln bushels
CHICAGO, July 13 (Reuters) - The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) monthly crush data slated for release Thursday should show the U.S. crush for June at 118.9 million bushels, according to an average of analysts' estimates.
Trade estimates ranged from 117.0 million to 122.0 million bushels. NOPA reported the May crush at 120.319 million bushels.

20110715 0909 FCPO EOD Daily Chart Study. (14-07-2011)

FCPO closed : 3144, changed : +62 points, volume : higher.
Bollinger band reading : correction range bound little downside biased.
MACD Histrogram : rising higher, buyer taking small exposure market.
Support : 3100, 3070, 3050, 3020 level.
Resistance : 3150, 3200, 3250, 3270 level.
Comment :
FCPO closed recorded gains with improved volume particiaption while soy oil overnight closed lower.
Significant surge in soy oil price due to concern over bad weather will affect lower harvest resulted palm oil prices to trade in huge discount to soy oil price provided support to FCPO price to closed higher as lower palm oil price will attract more buying interest. Market also awaits today ITS and SGS export data.
Daily chart formed an up bar candle closed above middle Bollinger band level after market opened gap up, surged upward quickly within minutes and retreated lower toward the end of morning session followed by afternoon session climb tested near support level trigerring some short covering to closed near the high of the day.
Technical reading adjusted to suggesting a correction range bound little downside biased market development testing support and resistance level pending export data annoucement.
When to buy : buy at support or weakness with quick cut loss and profit target.
When to sell : sell at resistant or strength with quick cut loss and profit target.