Thursday, December 30, 2010

20101230 1849 HAPPY NEW YEAR 2011 !


20101230 1848 FCPO EOD Daily Chart Study.

FCPO closed : 3788, changed : +55 points, volume : higher.
Bollinger band reading : correction range bound upside biased.
MACD Histrogram : resumed higher, buyer still in control.
Support : 3770, 3750, 3720 level.
Resistance : 3800, 3870, 3920 level.
Comment :
FCPO ended the year recorded gain with better volume traded ahead of long holidays and Monday 1~31 Dec 2010 export data release while soy oil resumed upward movement after having pullback correction for 2 days.
Daily chart formed an up bar candle with small lower shadow after price opened and tested lower support level and surged upward after yesterday pullback correction with the reading suggesting a correction range bound further upside biased potential market development.
When to buy : buy at support and weakness with quick cut loss and profit target.
When to sell : sell at resistant or strength with quick cut loss and profit target.

20101230 1835 FKLI EOD Daily Chart Study.

FKLI closed : 1521.5, changed : -9.5 points,  volume : lower.
Bollinger band reading : correction range bound upside biased.
MACD Histrogram : reversed lower, buyer reducing exposure.
Support : 1515, 1500, 1485 level.
Resistance : 1530, 1540, 1550 level.
Comment :
Last trading day of the year FKLI ended recorded loss with quiet volume participation as regional market closed mixed .
Daily chart formed a down candle having pullback correction after price touched upper Bollinger band resistant level with the reading suggesting a correction range bound upside biased market development.
When to buy : buy at support or weakness with quick cut loss and profit target.
When to sell : sell at resistant or strength with quick cut loss and profit target.

20101230 0949 Global Economics Related News.

Indonesia: Tightens rules on bank foreign exchange holdings
Indonesia said it will tighten rules on banks’ foreign-exchange holdings and overseas borrowing to cope with capital inflows that have pushed up inflation and strengthened the rupiah this year. Bank Indonesia will also reintroduce a 30% cap on lenders’ short-term overseas borrowing to minimize the risk of sudden capital outflows, it said. Banks must set aside 5% of their total foreign-exchange holdings as reserves as of March 2011, from 1% currently, Deputy Governor Budi Mulya said. The reserve requirement will rise to 8% effective June. (Bloomberg)

Taiwan: May increase interest rate to damp inflation
Taiwan will probably increase borrowing costs for the third time this year to curb gains in property prices and tackle accelerating inflation. Governor Perng Fai-nan will raise the benchmark interest rate by 0.125% point to 1.625%, according to all 14 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. Perng boosted the rate by the same amount in June and September from a record-low 1.25%. (Bloomberg)

EU: German inflation unexpectedly quickened in December
Inflation in Germany, Europe’s largest economy, unexpectedly accelerated in December as prices surged in the final month of the year. The inflation rate, calculated using a harmonized European method, increased to 1.9% from 1.6% in November, the Federal Statistics Office in Wiesbaden said. That’s the highest since Oct 2008. Economists expected an unchanged reading, according to the median of 13 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. From November, consumer prices jumped 1.2%, the biggest monthly gain since December 2002. (Bloomberg)

UK: Faces ‘worse’ year for jobs on government cuts, CIPD says
UK unemployment will rise in 2011 in what will be a “worse” year for hiring as the government cuts public jobs as part of plans to reduce the budget deficit, the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development said. Payrolls will drop by 200,000 next year, with public-sector employment falling by 120,000 and private-sector jobs by 80,000, the London-based group said. Unemployment may rise to 9%, it said. Consumers’ spending power will also be eroded, with the CIPD forecasting below-inflation pay increases of 2% in 2011. (Bloomberg)

US:Economy confidence falls on concern over jobs
Confidence among US consumers unexpectedly fell in December, restrained by concern that jobs will remain scarce in 2011. The Conference Board’s confidence index unexpectedly fell to 52.5, lower than the most pessimistic forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News, figures from the New York-based research group showed. Another report showed home values dropped more than economists projected. The loss of confidence is at odds with a report from the University of Michigan that showed sentiment improved to a sixmonth high in December, and with data showing holiday spending posted the biggest gain in five years. Federal Reserve policy makers this month said “depressed” housing and high unemployment remained constraints on consumer spending, supporting their plans to expand record monetary stimulus. (Bloomberg)

20101230 0948 Malaysia Corporate Related News.

Bank Negara still assessing Islamic mega bank bids
Malaysia’s central bank said yesterday it was still reviewing offers to set up mega Islamic banks, suggesting it could miss its target of awarding a licence this year as the industry struggles to create a well-capitalized syariah lender. It is offering up to 2 new Islamic banking licences to foreign firms to set up banks, with at least USD1bn of paid-up capital. (StarBiz)

Spike in demand for hybrid cars
Honda Malaysia SB and UMW Toyota Motor SB have recorded combined bookings of nearly 1,500 units for their Honda Insight and Toyota Prius hybrid models respectively in the span of less than 3 months. The bookings, if they were to materialize into sales, would represent a significant jump compared with just the 297 total hybrid units sold in the whole of 2009. (StarBiz)

TM sets up task force to probe bribe allegation
TM has set up a task force to carry out an investigation over news that telecommunications equipment maker Alcatel-Lucent gave bribes to its staff to win a contract. On Tuesday, Alcatel-Lucent and 3 of its subsidiaries had to pay more than USD137m in fines and penalties to settle US charges. According to court documents, Alcatel agents paid bribes to officials in Malaysia to obtain or retain a telecommunications contract worth USD85m. (BT)

Mitrajaya bags RM54m Subang Airport contract
Mitrajaya’s wholly owned subsidiary, Pembinaan Mitrajaya SB, yesterday was awarded a RM53.5m contract for the construction of a hangar at Subang Airport. Construction will commence from 1 Jan 2011 for a period of 10 months. (Financial Daily)

Sealink secures RM70m contract for vessels sale
Sealink International has secured contracts for the sale of 3 offshore support vessels for a total consideration of about RM70m. The 3 vessels are expected to be delivered within the first quarter of 2011. (Financial Daily) 

20101230 0857 Renewables Enry Related News.

Dec 28 (Reuters) - Japanese electronics firm Kyocera Corp will supply 204,000 kilowatts of solar cells to a Thai power company in a deal valued at 30-40 billion yen ($359 million), the Nikkei business daily said.
Kyocera will manufacture about 1 million polysilicon solar cells in Japan and ship them to Bangkok-based Solar Power Co over a period of three to four years, the daily said.

Dec 23 (Reuters) - Chinese solar products maker Solarfun Power Holdings  said GCL-Poly  will provide it 2,500 megawatts wafer and polysilicon products over the next five years.
The January 2011-December 2015 contract underscores the surging demand for renewable energy systems despite falling subsidies in top European markets such as Germany, Italy and the Czech Republic.

MUMBAI, Dec 23 (Reuters) - Indian power equipment maker Bharat Heavy Electricals said on Thursday it has secured contracts worth 780 million rupees ($17 million) to set up three solar photovoltaic power plants.
The orders are to be completed in 2011, BHEL said in a statement.

BEIJING, Dec 23 (Reuters) - China's Ministry of Commerce  on Thursday said it would consider a U.S. request for  consultations over its support for wind power technology,  while defending its actions as in keeping with global trade  rules.
The United States on Wednesday accused China of illegally subsidizing production of wind power equipment and asked for talks at the World Trade Organization, the first step in filing a trade case.

Dec 22 (Reuters) - U.S. solar equipment supplier GT Solar International  said it has received two orders worth $23.8 million from Chinese solar panel maker Trina Solar Ltd  for its crystalline ingot-making systems.
The orders -- for furnaces that melt polysilicon and cast multi-crystalline ingots, which are used to make solar wafers -- will be included in GT Solar's third-quarter backlog, it said in a statement.

ATHENS, Dec 22 (Reuters) - Greek renewable energy firm Terna Energy will accelerate its investment outside Greece next year to bypass red tape stifling growth at home, the company's chief executive said on Wednesday.
"I expect that in 2011 capital expenditure will be about 50/50 between Greece and abroad, with the total exceeding 300 million euros ($394.5 million)," Executive Chairman George Peristeris told Reuters in an interview.

PARIS, Dec 22 (Reuters) - France will tender for the construction of its first offshore wind power farms in January, a government source said on Wednesday.
It aims to build a wind power output capacity of 25,000 MW by 2020, including 6,000 MW in offshore wind capacity for a 20 billion euros investment to help it meet its goal to meet 23 percent of demand with green energy by 2020.

20101230 0856 Biofuels Related News.

HAMBURG, Dec 28 (Reuters) - An increase to the amount of biofuel blended into German gasoline will be delayed as more time is needed for technical changes for the new fuel mix, German oil industry association MWV said on Tuesday.
The German government in October approved a rise in the maximum level of bioethanol allowed in blended gasoline to 10 percent from 5 percent previously from Jan. 1, 2011.

BEIJING, Dec 25 (Reuters) - China's Finance Ministry has  retroactively exempted consumption tax on pure biodiesel made  from waste animal fats or vegetable oils, and will refund  taxes already paid over the last two years.
The policy is backdated to Jan. 1, 2009, the ministry said in a statement on its website late on Friday (

SEOUL, Dec 29 (Reuters) - South Korea, the world's No.5 oil importer, set its required bio-diesel mix rate system at 2 percent from 2012, the government said on Wednesday.
Asia's fourth-largest economy also unveiled details of a Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS), for which a government bill was approved in March, requiring 14 state-run and private power utilities to boost supplies of renewable energy from 2012.

SAO PAULO, Dec 22 (Reuters) - Brazilian sugar and ethanol group Cerradinho, which sold two mills to Noble Group earlier this week, plans to expand its cane operations in Goias state, a new cane frontier, a member of its board or directors said.
The injection of around 600 million reais ($354 million) from Noble will enable the Sanches Fernandes family, owner of the group, to resume investments in expanding the only mill it kept.
Graphic - cane expansion:

BRUSSELS, Dec 22 (Reuters) - The European Union's executive said on Wednesday it was looking at further measures to tackle the unwanted side-effects of biofuels production, which compromise the fuels' green credentials.
After a two-year investigation, the European Commission said the complex issue of "indirect land use change" could lessen carbon savings from biofuels, but it stopped short of immediately recommending new barriers against unsustainable biofuels.

COPENHAGEN, Dec 22 (Reuters) - Industrial enzymes producer Novozymes does not expect a major breakthrough in second-generation bioethanol in the United States for another four to five years, a senior executive said on Wednesday.
Novozymes' marketing director for biofuels, Poul Ruben Andersen, told Reuters he now sees no scope for second-generation ethanol to make a U.S. breakthrough until 2014 or 2015.  

20101230 0855 Global Market Related News.

Oil hovers above $91 ahead of U.S. inventory data
SINGAPORE, Dec 30 (Reuters) - Oil held above $91 a barrel, ahead of U.S. weekly inventory data expected to  show a drawdown in crude stocks for the fourth consecutive  week due to an abnormally icy winter.
"The oil market continues to alternate small gains with small declines, as prices idle quietly on light between-holiday volume," said Timothy Evans, energy analyst at Citi Futures Perspective.

U.S. corn, wheat dip from highs, market eyes export data
SINGAPORE, Dec 30 (Reuters) - U.S. corn futures slid around half a percent, ending a string of 10 consecutive days of gains, while wheat dropped from a near 5-month top as investors liquidated positions ahead of the year-end.
"It is not surprising to see profit-taking as traders tend to close their books and settle accounts before the end of the year," said Ker Chung Yang, an analyst at Phillip Futures in Singapore.

OIL: Oil steadies above $91, U.S. EIA stocks data eyed
SINGAPORE, Dec 30 (Reuters) - Oil steadied above $91 on Thursday ahead of U.S. inventory data that was expected to show a drawdown in crude stocks for the fourth consecutive week.
Warmer weather forecasts after the blizzard that pummeled the U.S. Northeast also cast doubts on sustained domestic demand for heating fuel, weighing on crude prices.

COMMODITY MARKETS: Gold to 3-week high as dollar sags; crude down
CHICAGO, Dec 29 (Reuters) - Gold climbed to a three-week high on Wednesday on economic uncertainty and a weaker dollar, while crude oil fell and copper set back from an all-time peak as traders took profits in light volume.
"Volume is light and somebody's making a decision on whether to own some gold or to cover some short positions at the end of the year. It can change in any given time during the day," said George Nickas at futures broker FC Stone.

GLOBAL MARETS: Stocks rise as growth outlook boosts risk assets
NEW YORK, Dec 29 (Reuters) - World stocks climbed to their highest levels in more than 27 months on Wednesday and the S&P 500 headed for its best December in nearly two decades as investors seized on indications of stronger economic growth in 2011.
"The first few days of the new year will be good as a lot of new money will flow into the market," said Philippe Gijsels, head of research at BNP Paribas Fortis Global Markets in Brussels. "But people will become cautious again."

OPEC caution on output may help bring back $100 oil
LONDON, Dec 29 (Reuters) - Oil has burst above top exporter Saudi Arabia's preferred $70-$80 range and yet OPEC is unlikely to stop the rally, helping to prepare the way for the market to bound above $100 a barrel.
At meetings this month -- a full conference of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries in Quito and talks among Arab oil ministers in Cairo -- oil producers stood by OPEC's two-year-old set of output curbs.

Snow in US Plains to protect wheat from cold snap
CHICAGO, Dec 28 (Reuters) - Snowfall expected in the southern U.S. Plains late this week should help insulate and protect the region's winter wheat crop from a weekend cold snap likely to bring subzero temperatures, forecasters said Tuesday.
"They will see some cold weather. We probably get down to minus 10 degrees (Fahrenheit) (minus 23 degrees Celsius) in western Nebraska and northeast Colorado, and negative single digits in northwest Kansas," said Drew Lerner, a meteorologist with World Weather Inc.

Argentine corn at critical juncture due to dryness
BUENOS AIRES, Dec 28 (Reuters) - Hot, dry conditions linked to the La Nina weather phenomenon threaten to dent corn and soy production in Argentina, where some corn crops are drying up as they enter a key growth stage, experts said on Tuesday.
The South American country is the world's second-biggest corn exporter, No. 3 soybean supplier and the top global provider of soyoil and meal. Argentine crop weather often moves corn and soy futures prices at the Chicago Board of Trade.

Raw sugar nears 30-year peak, cocoa slips
London white sugar futures rose in early trade supported by strength in ICE raw sugar futures , which hovered near their 30-year high of 34.60 cents a lb. Light volumes of trade over the holiday period made the market vulnerable to sharp moves.New York sugar  is expected to retrace to 33.39 cents per lb or lower to 32.03 cents as neither its wave pattern nor the RSI indicator supports a further gain.

World stocks up, Treasuries recover from sell-off
LONDON, Dec 29 (Reuters) - World stocks were close to fresh 27-month highs as investors headed towards the new year buoyed by hopes of a global growth spurt in 2011."The one thing the market has got going for it is the U.S. economy regaining momentum. At the moment the market doesn't want to know the bad news -- and it's very reluctant to give up any ground whatsoever," said Mike Lenhoff, chief strategist at Brewin Dolphin Securities, in London.

20101230 0854 Soy Oil & Palm Oil Related News.

US soy product futures ended lower as traders continued to take profits after sending the market to new highs recently. Traders said there was no fresh bullish news to rally markets that had already climbed to fresh bull-market highs recently. Worries about heat and dryness in South America will continue to underpin the markets, traders said. Jan soyoil closed down $0.044 cent to 56.38 cents per pound and Jan soymeal ended down $2.90 to $365.70 per short ton. (Source: CME)

U.S. corn, soy fall from over 2-year highs, wheat steady
SINGAPORE, Dec 29 (Reuters) - U.S. corn and soybean  futures slipped easing from their highest in  over two years scaled in the previous session, but supply  worries triggered by dry weather in Argentina continued to  support prices.  "Soybeans, corn and wheat should continue the bullish  trend next year, but there could be some profit-taking at the  end of the year," said Kazuhiko Saito, chief commodities  analyst at Fujitomi Co in Tokyo.

Palm snaps 7-day winning streak, supply concerns linger
KUALA LUMPUR, Dec 29 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil  futures snapped a seven-day winning streak as  traders booked profits although concerns over weak global  vegetable oil production persisted."Palm is down on weaker Dalian's soyoil and U.S. soy  complex as traders were squaring positions before year-end  since most commodity prices rose over the last few days," said  a trader in Kuala Lumpur.

US analyst lowers Argentina soybean crop forecast
CHICAGO, Dec 28 (Reuters) - Private U.S. crop analyst Michael Cordonnier said on Tuesday he lowered his forecast of Argentina's 2010/11 soybean production for a second straight week, to 48 million tonnes.
His previous weekly estimate was for 49 million tonnes.