Wednesday, July 4, 2012

20120704 1823 FCPO EOD Daily Chart Study.

FCPO closed : 3122, changed : -2 points, volume : lower.
Bollinger band reading : pullback correction upside biased.
MACD Histogram : rising, buyer in control.
Support : 3100, 3070, 3050, 3020, 2970 level.
Resistance : 3150, 3200, 3250, 3270 level.
Comment :
FCPO closed slipped lower marginally with slower volume traded. Soy oil closed for trading today due to U.S. independent day holiday after overnight closed substantially higher while crude oil price currently pullback lower after yesterday rallied.
Price retreated from 5 weeks high of 3147 on profit taking activities and traders decided to reduce exposure ahead of tonight U.S non trading day but however U.S. dry weather factor still supporting the market to some extend.
Technical chart reading revised to suggesting a pullback correction upside biased market development.
When to buy : buy at support or weakness with larger cut loss and profit target.
When to sell : sell at resistant or strength with quick cut loss and profit target.

20120704 1745 FKLI EOD Daily Chart Study.

FKLI closed : 1617 changed : +4.5 points, volume : lower.
Bollinger band reading : upside biased.
MACD Histogram : rising, buyer in control.
Support : 1610, 1600, 1590, 1580 level.
Resistance : 1620, 1630, 1640, 1650 level.
Comment :
FKLI closed firmer with lesser volume exchanged hitting new year high doing 3 points premium compare to cash market that closed recoded moderate gain. Overnight U.S. markets closed higher and today Asia markets ended mixed while European markets currently having negative development.
Beat estimates U.S. factor orders data and bets on stimulus measure to be implement send U.s. and some Asia exchange trading firmer while European market declining on some industries survey conducted below median forecast.
Daily chart study remained calling an upside biased market development after managed to break resistance near 1615.5 level that turned support.
When to buy : buy at support or weakness with quick cut loss and profit target.
When to sell : sell at resistance or strength with quick cut loss and profit target.

20120704 1714 Regional Markets EOD Daily Chart Study.

 DJIA chart reading : upside biased.
 Hang Seng chart reading : upside biased with possible pullback correction.
KLCI chart reading :  upside biased.

20120704 1602 Global Market & Commodities Related News.

Asian shares rose to a seven-week high as investors kept hopes high for more monetary policy stimulus to support the faltering global economy, starting with a likely rate cut by the European Central Bank. European stock index futures pointed to a slightly lower open, with investors seen taking some profits from two-month highs ahead of policy meetings of the European Central Bank and the Bank of England on Thursday. U.S. stocks extended a rally for a third day on Tuesday as sharp gains in oil prices lifted energy shares and traders factored in increased expectations for central bank stimulus.

The euro inched lower on bond redemption-related selling, with some investors stuck on the sidelines for the U.S. market holiday, while others took positions before a European Central Bank policy meeting on Thursday

FOREX-Euro edges down on bond redemptions; ECB eyed
TOKYO, July 4 (Reuters) - The euro inched lower on bond redemption-related selling on Wednesday, with some investors stuck on the sidelines for the U.S. market holiday, while others took positions before a European Central Bank policy meeting on Thursday.
The euro dipped 0.2 percent to $1.2588 , still holding above the Tuesday's low of 1.2559. Immediate resistance loomed at 1.2693, a high reached on Friday after European leaders hammered out a deal to tackle the region's debt crisis.

POLL- US heat seen cutting corn yield another 2.5 pct
Relentless heat and drought likely sliced another 2.5 percent off this year's U.S. corn crop, threatening to transform what would have been a record harvest into a drought-stunted haul, according to a Reuters poll.

Argentine soybean crushings set to fall- Oil World
Argentine soybean crushings are likely to be sharply reduced in coming months after the country's poor crop this year, curtailing the country's soyoil and soymeal export supplies, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World forecast on Tuesday.

Oil World ups global rapeseed crop forecast
Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Hamburg Oil World on Tuesday raised its estimate of the global 2012/13 rapeseed/canola crop by 0.6 million tonnes to 61.6 million tonnes, up from 59.59 million tonnes harvested in 2011/12.

Ukraine's PM promises free grain export in 2012/13
Ukraine does not plan to impose any limits on grain exports in the new July-June 2012/13 marketing season, Prime Minister Mykola Azarov was quoted as saying on Tuesday.

Brent crude slipped, but stayed above $100 per barrel as weak global economic data fuelled expectations of a stimulus response by central banks, and rising tension over Iran's nuclear programme fed worries about supply disruption.

POLL-US crude stockpiles seen falling on storm outages
U.S. commercial crude oil stockpiles were forecast to have fallen last week on production cuts in the Gulf of Mexico because of Tropical Storm Debby, an expanded Reuters poll of analysts showed on Tuesday.

S.Africa June coal exports from RBCT up m/m
JOHANNESBURG, July 2 (Reuters) - South Africa exported 5.45 million tonnes of coal from the Richards Bay Coal Terminal in June, up from 4.63 million tonnes the previous month, data showed on Monday.        
Africa's biggest economy - a major exporter of coal to power stations in Europe and Asia - had 2.91 million tonnes of stock at the terminal at the end of June, RBCT said.      

Euro Coal-Aug S.African trades at $91.50/T
LONDON, July 3 (Reuters) - Prompt South African FOB physical coal prices continued the rally begun last week to trade at $91.50 a tonne FOB Richards Bay on Friday, as traders bought to cover short positions at the same time as analysts were cutting their 2012 price forecasts.
Prompt Richards Bay prices have spiked by over $10.00 a tonne during the past few weeks, driven more by short-covering by players who sold heavily when prices dropped to two-year lows in May than by end-user driven demand.

Australia slaps import duties on Asian steel pipes
CANBERRA, July 3 (Reuters) - Australia's Customs Service imposed import duties on steel pipes made in China, South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan on Tuesday after finding steelmakers were dumping cheap products in the local market.

Severstal owner sees rise in steel demand slowing-report
Alexey Mordashov, chief executive and owner of Russia's second-biggest steel producer Severstal , expects the rise in world steel demand to slow in line with Chinese economic growth, the Kommersant daily reported.

Italy 4-month steel exports up, imports down-industry
Steel exports from Italy, the European Union's No.2 producer after Germany, rose 9.3 percent year-on-year to 6.407 million tonnes in the first four months of 2012, while imports plunged, data from industry body Federacciai showed on Tuesday.

Iron Ore-Prices for Australian cargoes rise, no turnaround seen
SINGAPORE, July 4 (Reuters) - Price offers for Australian iron ore in top importer China rose on Wednesday after cargoes were sold at higher prices the previous day, although buyers are unlikely to push up rates amid a persistently weak Chinese steel market.
Weak demand in China for steel, however, is likely to keep iron prices soft in coming weeks, analysts say, ahead of the peak demand period in late autumn and early winter.

COLUMN-Steel sector needs a better price tool-kit
--Andy Home is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own--
LONDON, July 3 (Reuters) - Has the iron ore pricing revolution stalled? Is it even in danger of going into reverse?  Behind those two questions is the general unhappiness with the current embryonic spot market articulated at last week's Metal Bulletin conference in Amsterdam.
Leading the reactionary charge was Chung Joon-yang, chief executive of South Korean steel group Posco  with his call for a return to the old system of annually-negotiated benchmark pricing.

Indonesia issues more mining export permits
JAKARTA, July 3 (Reuters) - Indonesia has awarded mineral export permits to 22 firms since it introduced curbs on such shipments in May, a trade ministry official said on Tuesday, after the restrictions triggered panic buying by customers in key buyers Japan and China.  
Indonesia, one of the world's leading metals exporters, in May asked all miners to submit plans to build smelters in a bid to squeeze more revenue for its mining sector ahead of a 2014 ban on raw mineral exports, while also imposing a tax of 20 percent on ore exports.

London copper edged down as investors locked in recent steep gains, waiting for more signs from central banks to revive a faltering global economy that has dented demand for industrial metals.

Gold hovered near a two-week high, helped by hopes central banks will ease monetary policy in a bid to nurture a fragile recovery in the global economy.

METALS-Copper falls, off 7-week top; monetary easing eyed
SHANGHAI, July 4 (Reuters) - London copper edged down on Wednesday as investors locked in recent steep gains, waiting for more signs from central banks to revive a faltering global economy that has dented demand for industrial metals.
Trading is expected to remain cautious ahead of a European Central Bank meeting on Thursday, which may now have to produce more than a sharp interest rate cut to ease market doubts over the ECB rescue fund's ability to lower borrowing costs for indebted members such as Spain.

PRECIOUS-Gold near 2-wk peak on hopes for monetary easing
SINGAPORE, July 4 (Reuters) - Gold hovered near a two-week high on Wednesday, helped by hopes central banks will ease monetary policy in a bid to nurture a fragile recovery in the global economy.
The European Central Bank is expected to cut interest rates on Thursday in the wake of a string of weak economic data, a move that would likely support gold as it typically benefits from a low interest rate environment.

Capesize rates perk up Baltic Index
July 3 (Reuters) - The Baltic Exchange's main sea freight index, which tracks rates for ships carrying dry commodities, rose on Tuesday as rates for capesize vessels surged.
The overall index, a gauge of the cost of shipping commodities such as iron ore, cement, grain, coal and fertiliser, was up 50 points or 4.94 percent at 1,063 points.

20120704 1106 Global Market & Commodities Related News.

GLOBAL MARKETS-Shares rise on hopes of more monetary stimulus
TOKYO, July 4 (Reuters) - Asian shares rose as investors kept hopes high for more monetary policy stimulus to support the faltering global economy, but trading may be subdued with U.S. markets closed for the Independence Day holiday.
"Markets are likely to remain unsettled on overriding growth-related concerns, but emerging market valuations already reflect reasonable worst-case outcomes and there is also scope for (unanticipated) policy action," Morgan Stanley said in a research note.

COMMODITIES-Oil, stoked by Iran talk, leads near-record rally
NEW YORK/LONDON, July 3 (Reuters) - Commodity markets shot higher for the second time in three days on Tuesday, with oil prices leading the way as they posted one of their biggest, broadest rallies ever as bellicose rhetoric from Iran stoked Mideast supply worries.
"Wild swings like these are what we saw back in 2008 when we were in fear-ridden, bear markets. Gains like these usually peter out after a few days or weeks," said Adam Sarhan, chief executive of New York advisory Sarhan Capital.

Price jump does not mark shift in oil fundamentals
--John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own--
LONDON, July 3 (Reuters) - If anyone still doubted that the positions held by major market players as well as fundamentals are a powerful driver of oil prices, the enormous surge in Brent and U.S. crude prices on June 29 should put the matter beyond dispute.
The 9.4 percent jump in front-month U.S. crude futures  and 7.0 percent rise in the equivalent Brent contract  last Friday were among the largest one-day rises on record.

OIL-Brent oil up 3 pct on Iran concerns, stimulus hope
NEW YORK, July 3 (Reuters) - Brent crude rose more than 3 percent on Tuesday, topping $100 a barrel as rising tensions over Iran's nuclear program sparked oil's second rally in three sessions after a second-quarter slide.
"I think this is positioning for geopolitical risk in the Middle East," said Bill O'Grady, chief market strategist at Confluence Investment Management in St. Louis.

Freight dispute risks delay in Iran oil to China-sources
BEIJING, July 3 (Reuters) - The delivery of millions of barrels of Iranian crude to its top buyer, China, is at risk of delay due to a dispute between refining giant Sinopec  and shipper National Iranian Tanker Co (NITC) over freight terms, Beijing-based sources said on Tuesday.
China has turned to NITC for delivery of the 500,000 barrels per day of crude it buys from Iran as a result of European Union sanctions. The EU measures took effect on Sunday and prohibit European insurers, who dominate the maritime sector, from offering cover on Iran crude.

NATURAL GAS-US gas futures rise 3 pct ahead of holiday
NEW YORK, July 3 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures rose nearly 3 percent on Tuesday, boosted in some pre-holiday short covering amid hot weather in much of the nation that has increased air conditioning demand.
"The natural gas market is probing the upside, supported by current hot temperatures that boost air-conditioning loads and related natural gas demand from utilities, leading to lower storage injections and a reduced storage surplus in turn," said Citi Futures energy analyst Tim Evans.

EURO COAL-Aug S.African trades at $91.50/T
LONDON, July 3 (Reuters) - Prompt South African FOB physical coal prices continued the rally begun last week to trade at $91.50 a tonne FOB Richards Bay on Friday, as traders bought to cover short positions at the same time as analysts were cutting their 2012 price forecasts.
"All the utilities are fairly long but even traders with some to sell aren't going to want to sell now when the market looks like it's rising," one major European trader said.

20120704 1027 Currency Related News by Reuters.

Currency Summaries (Source : Reuters)
EUR/USD   EUR/USD opened NY unchanged vs last night's close at 1.2580, O/N session range 1.2571//1.2614; NY range 1.2559/1.2627, close 1.2610. EZ equity marts closed up 0.96/1.84% (France x Portugal) DAX +1.26%, FTSE +0.83%. US equity marts +0.55/0.8% at the early close. EUR/USD was locked in a tight range overseas, traders content to sit on the sidelines with the US closed for July 4th holiday and ahead of the ECB rate decision on Thursday. Our London options desk note larger than average vanilla option expiries at 1.2600 are drawing price action Options Calendar 1 and in the absence of any controversial EZ headlines should be the deciding factor until Thursday morning.

USD/JPY  The general pattern for the yen was one of modest weakness, but the European and US sessions only pushed that nominally. USD/JPY popped briefly into the 79.90 area, but otherwise ranged around 79.80. Thanks to better trading in the risk markets, EUR/JPY reached up to 100.80 and held close, but that was after an initial retracement back to 100.20. GBP/JPY and AUD/JPY showed similar pattern, though the latter proved the best performer, as would be expected in a risk accepting market. Another day in the running range has furthered the narrowing of the USD/JPY Bollingers to the point where they are quite tight on a historical basis. Combined with a single-digit Trend Intensity level, it tells us the market is getting very close to making its next meaningful directional move. Give pattern of higher highs and lows since the June 1 bottom, the bias looks to favor an eventual upside resolution.

GBP/USD  Reported UK consumer credit and lending figures were generally better than expected, but construction PMI missed rather significantly. There was little impact on sterling, however. Struggles in the broad markets in the European morning saw the USD rally, which pulled GBP/USD down from highs above 1.5700 to a test of 1.5660. In the US morning, however, that all reversed and by the end of the session cable was back to the upper end of the range. EUR/GBP was mainly range-bound until making a break through 0.8030 in the US morning about the time the IMF suggested above 2% German inflation. GBP/USD has demonstrated by managing to get back to the 1.5700 area following another dip down, even if it hasn't managed to push on toward the June highs. The Bollingers are still narrowing rapidly and Trend Intensity continues to fall, so consolidation remains the major theme for now. We're probably not too far off seeing a break of the ranging, however.

USD/CHF  After yesterday's risk rally to 0.9560 today's rally stifled at 0.9563, prices stalled once again ahead of the 200-hr M/A at 0.9577.Momentum has turned negative with US equities closing +0.56/0.79% with an early close for US July 4th holiday.EUR/CHF steady 1.1998/1.2020 with a late downside test at New York fix. Swissy supported by reports of Iran missile test (they claim it can reach Israel) & Iraq car bomb that killed dozens of Shiite pilgrims underpinning CHF. Firm gold also helped (closed $1619.40, +1.42%, USD/CHF closed 0.9524 after lows by 0.9514.

USD/CAD  USD/CAD opened Noram marts 1.0150/55 -15 pips vs yesterday's close; O/N range 1.0140/71, Noram range 1.0121/67; close 1.0124. Cross currency flows kept the Loonie in the corralled, model sales of EUR/CAD knocked pair down from 1.2800 to 1.2735, closed 1.2760/65. CAD/JPY sales knocked pair down from 78.70 to 78.40 but rally in US equities took pair back to 78.90 paid, close 78.80. US equity marts with an early close, +0.56/0.79%, TSX +2.14% at the same time, 11,844.76 boosted by surging commodity complex; WTC oil +4.45% $87.50, Brent +3.5% $100.75. Mid-East tensions, Norwegian oil workers strike & Fed QE prospects driving prices, gold +1.45% $1620.0, copper +2.0% $3.5355 lb.

AUD/USD  AUD/USD traded the NY session within tight ranges once again. The pair opened the session consolidating close to its recent trend highs as the AUD continues to get bullish signals. In the o/n session the RBA was less dovish than anticipated and a second tier housing number tore the cover off the ball. The NY session saw commodities break out to new highs for the recent rally. Futures on oil & copper were up 4.5% and 2.0% respectively. Gold rallied $25 and the CRB was up 2.75%. Reaction from FX was limited though and AUD/USD limped higher to trade just ahead of a reported 1.0300 barrier. Market chatter is of decent stops above the 1.0300 level. The pair may need further rallies in equities and commodities for a break above 1.0300. Technically the picture looks good. The pair looks set to close above the 100 & 200 DMAs and trend line support off the June lows remains intact. Daily RSI and Stoch momentum studies are stretched so a pullback may be in the cards.

NZD/USD  The kiwi was weaker through much of the European session, seeing NZD/USD retrace back to the 0.8010 area and AUD/NZD extend its gains to a peak above 1.2790. As risk markets developed strength, however, the NZD made a turn. NZD/USD rallied fairly quickly back up toward the prior day highs near 0.8060 and the cross retraced back to the 1.2765 area. Both moves did see a bit of reversal heading into the US close, however. The push on to a new high in NZD/USD keeps the uptrend ticking over and we're seeing Trend Intensity moving higher in an uptrend reading as well. The bottom of the March/April consolidation remains important resistance however, and TI is already at a high enough reading to suggest limits to how far the market may be able to go. RSI is also getting on toward overbought. That suggests caution moving ahead.

LATAM Local equity marts higher, Bovespa +2.23%, IPSA (CL) +0.21% IPC (MX) +0.74%, Merval (AR) +1.8%, IGBC (CO) +1.56% IGRA (PE) +0.64%. LATAM FX vs USD mixed - BRL -0.66% 1.9975, CLP +1.03% 494.90, MXN +0.24% 13.30750, COP +0.39% 1768.8. BRL sold off because comments from BACEN director govt. ready to buy USD and favour weaker BRL to boost exports after soft Industrial production data today (0.9% May (f/c -0.7%) y-on-y -4.3% (f/c -3.3%) FIPE +0.23%. Gold closed +1.6% $1621.9; silver +3.2% $28.35, WTC oil +4.5% $87.57, Brent +3.5% $100.85, copper +1.9% $3.5300 lb.

20120704 0954 Global Economy Related News.

Malaysia and the US are on the right track towards ever stronger business, political, security and cultural relations, notes US Ambassador to Malaysia Datuk Paul W. Jones, who commended both Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak and US President Barack Obama who always continued to meet and exchange views in a variety of fields such as entrepreneurship, science and technology, arts, strengthening English and building friendships. (Bernama)

The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for Singapore stayed at 50.4 in Jun, the same as in May. (ST)

The Bank of Thailand lowered its general inflation rate projection for 2012 to 3.3% from 3.5%, as inflation was moving downward in line with the global economic slowdown, according to BoT governor Prasarn Trairatvorakul. (Bangkok Post)

Bank of Thailand Governor Prasarn Trairatvorakul stated that any monetary policy adjustment will be based on prevailing economic conditions, and the interest rate at 3% currently is in favour of the economy, loan growth and consumer demands. (Thai Financial Post)

China: Slowdown cuts luxury spending as Hong Kong retail weakens

China’s slowdown dragged Hong Kong’s retail-sales growth to the weakest pace since 2009, as shoppers visiting from the mainland cut back on purchases of luxury goods such as jewelry and watches. Sales increased 8.8% in May from a year earlier to HKD36b (USD4.6bn), the government said. That was the smallest gain since September 2009, excluding seasonal distortions each January and February. (Bloomberg)

The National Bureau of Statistics and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing’s purchasing managers' index for the country's non-manufacturing sector rose to 56.7 in Jun from 55.2 in May, the best reading since a 10-month high of 58.0 recorded in Mar. (Reuters)

A slowing economy, uncertain fuel price regulations, new taxes and a weakening currency have slowed India’s new-car sales to a 2.8% gain in May from 7% the same month a year earlier. (WSJ)

Japan’s labor cash earnings fell 0.8% yoy in May (+0.2% in Apr), whilst manufacturing overtime hours worked rose 12.8% yoy (16.8% in Apr). Total employment gained 0.8% yoy (0.7% in Apr), with manufacturing employment increasing 0.1% yoy (0.0% in Apr). (Bloomberg)

Japan’s monetary base grew 5.9% yoy in Jun (2.4% in May), whilst at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, the measure gained 55.8% (-37.9% in May). (Bloomberg)

Japan pledged to continue providing Vietnam with Official Development Assistance to help develop infrastructure and cope with climate change, Japanese Foreign Minister Koichiro Gemba told visiting Deputy Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc. (Vietnam News)

Australia: RBA holds key rate at 3.5% as prior cuts buoy growth

Australia’s central bank kept interest rates unchanged at a 2 1/2-year low, saying its recent reductions in borrowing costs will help the economy weather a more subdued global outlook. Governor Glenn Stevens and his board left the overnight cash-rate target at 3.5%, the Reserve Bank of Australia said. The decision was predicted by all 28 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. (Bloomberg)

UK: Mortgage lending declines, construction shrinks
UK mortgage approvals fell in May and construction shrank at the fastest rate in 2 1/2 years in June, adding to signs the housing market is slowing amid growing concern over the economic outlook. Lenders granted 51,098 loans to buy homes, compared with 51,627 the previous month, the Bank of England said. A gauge of building output based on a survey fell to 48.2 from 54.4 in May, a separate report by Markit and the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply showed. (Bloomberg)

UK: Shop inflation slowest since November 2009, retailers say
UK shop-price inflation slowed in June to the weakest in more than 2 1/2 years as fuel and commodity prices fell, the British Retail Consortium said. Retail prices rose 1.1% from a year earlier, compared with 1.5% in May, the trade group and Nielsen Co. said. Non-food goods prices were 0.3% lower than a year earlier, the fifth consecutive monthly decline. (Bloomberg)

The number of people registered as unemployed in Spain fell by 98,853, or 2.1%, to 4.62m in Jun from the previous month, the steepest fall in unemployment numbers for the month of June since the series began in 1996. (AFP)

The IMF pared its growth forecast for the US economy to 2.0% (2.1% in the Apr forecast), warning that the Obama administration could be slicing the deficit too fast for the weak economy, and that the eurozone crisis and the US’ pre-programmed "fiscal cliff" combination of sharp spending cuts and tax increases at the year-end were veritable threats. (AFP)

US domestic vehicle sales rose to an annualized pace of 10.8m in Jun (10.6m in May), overshooting consensus of 10.0m, whilst total vehicle sales rose to an annualized 14.1m from 13.8m in May, again overshooting consensus of 13.9m. (Bloomberg)

The US ICSC-Goldman Store Sales Index gained 0.2% wow in the 30 Jun week (2.0% in the prior week), whilst on a yoy basis, the measure gained 1.4% (2.7% in the earlier week). (Bloomberg)

US: Orders to US factories rise for first time in three months
Orders placed with US factories rose in May for the first time in three months, easing concern that manufacturing is faltering. Auto sales for June also exceeded analysts’ estimates. The 0.7% increase in bookings followed a revised 0.7% drop in the prior month, the Commerce Department said. The median forecast of economists in a Bloomberg News survey called for a rise to 0.1%. (Bloomberg)

20120704 0953 Malaysia Corporate Related News.

Time dotcom to invest RM144m in APG
Time Dotcom (TdC) estimates its total investment in Asia-Pacific Gateway (APG) submarine cable system,, including the Malaysian cable landing station, at RM144m. TdC told Bursa Malaysia yesterday the investment will be made progressively throughout the construction of the APG. It said the construction of the APG will commence in the second half of the year, and is targeted for completion by 2014. (Financial Daily)

Wah Seong buys Petra Energy stake
Wah Seong Corp has entered into a conditional share sale agreement for the acquisition of 26.9% equity interest in Petra Energy for RM96.9m from Perdana Petroleum. The companies said in separate announcements that upon the execution of the agreement, 10% of the sale consideration shall be made as deposit, while the remaining 90% would be paid on the last day of the 10-business day period after all conditions have been satisfied. (StarBiz)

Tebrau Teguh receives offer from IWH
Tebrau Teguh has received an offer from Iskandar Waterfront Holdings (IWH) for the latter to acquire all the remaining shares of Tebrau Teguh that it does not already owned for 76 sen per share. IWH made the offer on 29 Jan to Tebrau Teguh’s substantial shareholder, Kumpulan Prasarana Rakyat Johor SB (KPRJ), to acquire 222m shares, or a 33.2% stake, in Tebrau Teguh for RM168.7m. (StarBiz)

BIMB awaits response from Indonesian bank
Bank Islam Malaysia Bhd (BIMB) is awaiting response from an Indonesian Islamic bank on its proposed offer to acquire 30% to 40% stake in the latter, said managing director Datuk Seri Zukri Samat. Zukri said the proposed acquisition was part of BIMB’s move to expand its overseas operations. “BIMB has identified one bank and has indicated its offer to them but so far, we have yet to receive any response to our proposal,” he said. (StarBiz)

SP Setia’s Vietnam job cancelled
SP Setia’s proposed 32ha property development project in Vietnam has been cancelled, the company told Bursa Malaysia in a filing yesterday. It said that the condition precedent (CP) set out in the cooperation agreement between Setia Saigon East Ltd and Saigon Hi-Tech Park Development Co were not met by yesterday, which was the expiry date of an already extended CP fulfillment period. (BT)

Tricubes regularisation plan rejected
Tricubes’ proposed regularisation plan was rejected by the Bursa Malaysia Securities. In an exchange filing yesterday, Tricubes said the trading in the securities of the company will be suspended from 11 July 2012. “The securities of the company will be delisted on 7 Aug 2012, unless an appeal against rejection of the regularisation plan and delisting is submitted to Bursa Securities on or before 2 Aug 2012,” noted Tricubes. (Malaysian Reserve)

MRT financing deal to be finalised in Q1
Danainfra Nasional, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Ministry of Finance Inc, expects to finalise the total financing required for the Sungai Buloh Kajang (SBK) Mass Rapid Transit (MRT) line by the first quarter of next year. “We expect the total cost of the project to be known once all the tender packages have been awarded, which will be by year-end, and envisage to finalise the financing by the end of the first quarter of next year,” said principal officer Fazlur Rahman Ebrahim after the signing of a RM8bn Islamic commercial papers/Islamic medium-term notes (ICP/IMTN) programme agreement by Danainfra. (StarBiz)

The price of Felda Global Ventures Holdings Bhd (FGV) shares is expected to surge in the market based on the demand for palm oil products, which is increasing every year, said Plantation Industries and Commodities Deputy Minister, Datuk Hamzah Zainuddin. "We hope that (Felda) settlers will not be quick to sell their shares because it will jump to a very profitable level," said Zainuddin. (Bernama)

Malaysia’s palm oil exports rose 9.7% in June compared with the previous month, estimated Societe Generale de Surveillance, an independent cargo surveyor. A total of 1,463,864 metric tons of palm oil were tracked, SGS said. Malaysia exported 1,333,869 tons of palm oil in May, according to the surveyor. (Bloomberg)

Telekom Malaysia Sarawak has inked a three-year service agreement with Majupun Sdn Bhd to provide high-speed broadband service to the Miri Marriot Resort and Spa. (Bernama)

Telekom Malaysia is optimistic its small-and-medium enterprise (SME) customer base would increase to 500,000 by year-end, from 494,000, at present. TM Executive Vice-President (SME) Azizi A Hadi said the customer base expansion would be driven by new products, as well as, its recently-concluded SME BizNet and SME BizFest 2012 road shows. "During the road shows, carried out between January and May, we successfully enerated RM58m worth of contracts, whereby 90% of the value was generated from existing customers. "Our SME customers have been growing their business over the years, they need new products and services to complement their matured operations," he told reporters. SME BizNet served as a platform for SMEs to engage with TM to learn more about its information and communication technology (ICT) offerings that suited their businesses, however, aimed to provide a synergistic ICT showcase for businesses that required a more professional solution. (Bernama)

The demand for cheap illegal cigarettes continues to yield good profits for retailers nationwide who blatantly disregard the risks of getting caught. It is estimated that there are over 100 illegal brands in the market – mainly smuggled from other Asian countries. Among the popular ones are Luffman, Ray and Tex. The fags are usually hidden under the counter and made available only when requested by brand. Not only are these cigarettes sold at an average of RM3.50 per pack, way below the mandated price of RM7 per pack for licensed brands, but upon closer inspection, packs bearing names such as John reveal false or non-existent addresses and manufacturer names. Retailers interviewed said they made between 30 sen and 50 sen profit on each illegal pack they sold. High taxes on cigarettes is the reason that has driven consumers to cheaper alternatives, said Small and Medium Industries Association of Malaysia president The Kee Sin. “Muslim Wholesalers and Retailers Association president Amanul-lah Mohd Maideen called on the Customs Department and government officials to have stricter enforcement to weed out illegal cigarette makers. According to the Health Ministry, there are over three million smokers in the country, of which 80% are adults. (Star)

Beer smuggling has a significant impact on local breweries and could eventually lead to them reviewing their business operations in Malaysia. Guinness Anchor Berhad managing director Charles Ireland said the beer industry directly and indirectly provided employment to over 50,000 people nationwide. He said the industry contributed close to RM1.5bn in tax revenue last year alone. “If beer smuggling continues to thrive in East Malaysia, the Government is not the only one that will suffer. Businesses like ours may need to review our operations here as it may not be sustainable,” he said. Ireland said based on industry estimates, over 30% of the total beer market volume in Malaysia is illegal. “The lower price tag of smuggled beer leads to consumers opting for it. “Many consumers fail to understand that when they opt to buy smuggled beer, they are supporting an illegal trade,” he said. He added that local companies could not compete with breweries in neighbouring countries that had larger beer production volumes and enjoyed greater economies of scale. “Besides that, these foreign brewed beers, when smuggled into Sabah and Sarawak, are sold at a price that we cannot compete with because we pay excise duties,” he said. Ireland suggested that apart from stepping up enforcement efforts, the Government should look into introducing stiffer penalties against smugglers and traders. (Star)

AirAsia X plans to launch its IPO by the end of this year or early 2013 to fund its expansion, said CEO Azran Osman-Rani. The low-cost carrier said it wasn’t looking at any acquisition target and planned to grow the company organically. The company aimed to add 14 new aircraft to its current fleet size of 11 aircraft by the end of 2014. The airline is eyeing expansion of its China network to cities that appeal to tourists. (Dow Jones Newswires)

Credit Suisse Group AG, Goldman Sachs Group Inc and JPMorgan Chase & Co were among banks picked to arrange the US$1.5bn (RM4.72bn) initial public offering (IPO) of Malaysia's Astro All Asia Networks plc, said two people with knowledge of the matter. Astro also hired CIMB Group Holdings Bhd and Malayan Banking Bhd for the IPO. The IPO may take place by year-end, they said. (Malaysian Reserve)

An intense heatwave is threatening havoc with this year's US grain harvest, burning up hopes of blockbuster yields and sending prices soaring. Even a small reduction in crops could send ripples through global food commodities markets, as the US is the world's top exporters of corn, soya beans and wheat, and stocks of the first two are relatively low. Top US farming states such as Illinois and Indiana had suffered temperatures above 38°C for several days already, with no let-up this week. "The forecast is going to remain pretty much the same over the next week, We're not looking at much of a break in the heat," said Matt Barnes, meteorologist at the National Weather Service. (Financial Times)

China Automobile Parts would see a public issue of 90m new shares or 15% of its enlarged share capital from an issued and paid-up capital of 600m shares worth US$60m (RM180m). The company, which is seeking a listing on the Main Market, has yet to determine the initial public offering (IPO) price and indicative timeline of the IPO. China Automobile is a specialist manufacturer of automobile chassis components used in vehicles for transporting goods. (Starbiz)

Allianz Malaysia says it is unfazed by increasing competition from existing or new foreign players in the insurance landscape as the penetration rate in the country is still small. "We are not afraid of competition. In fact, we are encouraged by it," Allianz CEO Jens Reisch said. Instead, he said, the insurer welcomes competition that would help develop the market, which has a penetration of only 41% currently. (BT)

Ho Hup Construction Co Bhd has finally called for a truce with Malton Bhd on a two-year dispute over a piece of land in Bukit Jalil.Ho Hup said the company and its 70% subsidiary, Bukit Jalil Development Sdn Bhd (BJD) have come to an amicable settlement with Pioneer Haven Sdn Bhd (PHSB), a subsidiary of Malton, on the development rights of its 60-acre (24 ha) land Bukit Jalil. The settlement was formalised in a supplemental agreement (SA) that contains two key variations to the joint development agreement (JDA) signed more than two years ago. The SA entails the joint development between both companies on 50 acres of the Bukit Jalil land, instead of the entire 60 acres. The remaining 10 acres will be development solely by BJD. BJD will be entitled to 18% instead of 17% of the estimated gross development value of the 50-acre land. (Financial Daily)

Kumpulan Jetson is developing a luxury residential development project in Penang called The Macalister, comprising 33 high-rise condominium units. Its subsidiary Jetson Development has entered into a heads of agreement with Fortress Effect for the joint development on three pieces of freehold land, measuring a total of 4,486.5sq m. Under the agreement, Jetson Development is entitled to 30% of the project’s gross development value and Fortress Effect the remaining 70%. (BT)

20120704 0952 Global Market Related News.

Asian Stocks Rise on U.S. Factory Data, Stimulus Optimism (Source: Bloomberg)
Asian stocks rose for a sixth day, with the regional benchmark index heading for its longest winning streak this year, as U.S. factory orders topped estimates and commodities climbed to a two-month high amid speculation central banks will act to boost economic growth. BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP) jumped 1.9 percent to lead gains among commodity stocks as a surge in raw-materials prices boosted the earnings outlook at the world’s largest mining company. Komatsu Ltd. (6301), a Japanese maker of construction equipment that gets 23 percent of sales in the U.S., rose 1.9 percent. Nissan Motor Co. (7201) advanced 0.8 percent as its North American sales surged 28 percent, beating the 21 percent average estimate of analysts.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index (MXAP) advanced 0.4 percent to 119.19 as of 9:48 a.m. in Tokyo, before markets in China and Hong Kong opened. Two stocks rose for each that fell. The gauge climbed to its highest level since May 10 after euro-zone leaders last week agreed to relax conditions for recapitalizing lenders, easing concern about the region’s debt crisis. A six-day advance on the Asian benchmark would complete its longest streak of gains since December.

China Stocks Rise for Third Day on Policy, Property Speculation (Source: Bloomberg)
China’s stocks rose for a third day as a pick-up in the property market helped the nation’s service industries expand at a faster pace and speculation grew the government will further ease monetary policy. China Vanke Co. led a gauge of property developers to the biggest gain in three weeks, as the China Securities Journal reported the central bank may make cutting lenders’ reserve ratios the top choice for increasing liquidity. Liquor maker Kweichow Moutai Co. (600519) rose 5.4 percent after Citigroup Inc. recommended an overweight allocation on consumer companies. Sany Heavy Industry Co. paced declines for machinery stocks on concern the economic slowdown is hurting construction activity. The Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) added 0.1 percent to 2,229.19 at the close. The CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300) rose 0.1 percent to 2,468.72. The Bloomberg China-US 55 Index (CH55BN), the measure of the most-traded U.S.-listed Chinese companies, lost 0.7 percent yesterday.
“There’s speculation of reserve-ratio cuts again this month and the government is expected to have more policies to boost the market,” Zhang Qi, an analyst at Haitong Securities Co., said in Shanghai. “Stocks dropped too much last month so we are seeing a rebound in July.”

Japanese Stocks Rise on Global Stimulus Bets, Weaker Yen (Source: Bloomberg)
July 4 (Bloomberg) -- Japanese stocks rose a second day amid speculation central banks in China and Europe will take action to spur growth. Shares also gained after U.S. factory orders beat estimates and the yen weakened. Komatsu Ltd. (6301), a maker of construction equipment that gets 23 percent of its sales in the Americas, added 1.8 percent. Inpex Corp. (1662), Japan’s No. 1 energy explorer, advanced 2.9 percent after crude rose to a one-month high. Renesas Electronics Corp. (6723) rose 2 percent after the chipmaker said it will cut more than 5,000 jobs to help trim losses. Nissan Motor Co. (7201) advanced 0.8 percent as its North American sales beat estimates. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average (NKY) gained 0.5 percent to 9,112.95 as of 9:57 a.m. in Tokyo, with about two stocks advancing for each that fell. The broader Topix (MXAP) Index (CRY) advanced 0.3 percent to 779.36. The measure added 1 percent yesterday, the highest close since May 2.
“The market is feeling resolve from policy makers around the world that they will not let the economy get worse,” said Hiroichi Nishi, an equities manager in Tokyo at SMBC Nikko Securities Inc. “As better economic outlooks cut risk aversion, the market is getting sensitive to positives rather than negatives.”

S&P 500 Rallies to Two-Month High After Factory Orders (Source: Bloomberg)
U.S. stocks advanced, sending the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index to a two-month high, after data showed factory orders topped estimates and as speculation grew that global central banks will act to spur economic growth. Commodity (S5MATR), industrial and technology shares had the biggest gains among 10 groups in the S&P 500. Alcoa (AA) Inc., Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) and Apple Inc. (AAPL) advanced at least 1.1 percent. Ford Motor Co. (F) rallied 2.2 percent as deliveries of cars and light trucks beat analysts’ estimates. Facebook Inc. (FB) climbed 1.4 percent as General Motors (GM) Co. is said to be talking with the largest social-networking company about resuming advertising.
The S&P 500 rose 0.6 percent to 1,374.02 at 1 p.m. New York time. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 72.43 points, or 0.6 percent, to 12,943.82. The Russell 2000 Index rallied 1.3 percent to 818.48. The market closed at 1 p.m. today, and will be shut tomorrow for a holiday. Trading in S&P 500 companies was almost in line with the 30-day average at this time of day.

European Stocks Rise for a Third Day; Peugeot Shares Gain (Source: Bloomberg)
European stocks climbed, posting their biggest three-day rally this year, amid optimism central banks will add to stimulus measures and as a report showed that U.S. factory orders rebounded in May. PSA Peugeot Citroen added 3.7 percent as a union official said the carmaker will eliminate more jobs this year than it had announced. Aberdeen Asset Management Plc (ADN) slid 3.7 percent as Credit Suisse Group AG (CSGN) was said to be selling a 7 percent stake in Scotland’s largest money manager. Barclays Plc (BARC) slid 0.8 percent after saying that its chief operating officer instructed the bank’s rate setters to lower their submissions for Libor.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index climbed 1 percent to 257.39 at the close, completing a three-day gain of 5.2 percent, the gauge’s biggest since November. The benchmark measure has rallied 10 percent from this year’s low on June 4 as euro-area leaders opened the door to directly recapitalizing lenders using the European Stability Mechanism, the currency zone’s permanent bailout fund. “It looks like we’re entering a quieter period,” said Konstantin Giantiroglou, head of investment advisory at Neue Aargauer Bank AG in Brugg, Switzerland. “The market shrugged off yesterday’s disappointing U.S. economic data. Providing we don’t encounter any serious negative news, the current mood may be able to support markets for a while.”

Stocks Pessimism Posts Longest Streak Since 2011 Market Bottom (Source: Bloomberg)
Bearish sentiment in a survey of individual investors has surpassed the historical average for the longest stretch since October, when stocks began a rally that lifted the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (SPX) 24 percent. A poll by the American Association of Individual Investors showed 44.4 percent of respondents say American stocks will fall over the next six months. That’s the eighth consecutive week that pessimism stayed above the 25-year average of 30 percent. Concern Europe’s debt crisis will deepen and the recovery weaken have erased as much as $1.8 trillion from U.S. equities since March. The last time the proportion of bears topped the average for this long was in the 14 weeks through Oct. 20, 2011, just after the S&P 500 bottomed at 1,099.23. The benchmark measure for U.S. stocks went on to surge as much as 29 percent, reaching a four-year high of 1,419.04 on April 2.
“Individual investors tend to get in when the markets are red hot and they tend to get out when the markets are at the bottom,” Robert Carey, who helps oversee $53 billion as chief investment officer of Wheaton, Illinois-based First Trust Portfolios, said in a telephone interview. “It’s been one series of issues after another, but, ultimately, fundamentals will weigh out and overwhelm any sentiment that people have.”

FOREX-Euro steady as weak U.S. data offsets euro woes
LONDON, July 3 (Reuters) - The euro was steady against the dollar as prospects of weakness in the U.S. economy leading to further monetary easing offset poor euro zone data and doubts about a European plan to support indebted countries.
"There are a lot of implementation risks but for now the market seems to be buying what came out of the EU summit. Before we go back to a trend of selling the euro we may have a bit of consolidation and perhaps some short covering," said Carl Hammer, chief currency strategist at SEB.

Yen Remains Lower as Stocks Advance on Stimulus Prospects (Source: Bloomberg)
The yen held losses against most of its major peers as Asian shares climbed for a sixth day amid speculation central bank stimulus efforts will prop up global growth, sapping demand for Japan’s currency as a refuge. The dollar was 0.1 percent from a two-month low versus its Australian counterpart before U.S. data tomorrow that may show private employment rose at the slowest pace in 10 months. The International Monetary Fund said additional monetary easing may be needed in the U.S., while economists forecast the European Central Bank will probably cut interest rates tomorrow. “The ECB story itself will do wonders to keep the risk on for a little bit longer,” said Gavin Stacey, the Sydney-based chief rate strategist at Barclays Plc. “What we’re seeing in terms of safe-haven currencies, a little bit of softness in dollar and yen, will be consistent with the idea that risk is extending.”
The yen traded little changed at 100.60 per euro as of 9:28 a.m. in Tokyo after losing 0.6 percent yesterday. It lost 0.1 percent to 79.87 per dollar. The greenback was at $1.2596 per euro after sliding 0.3 percent to $1.2608. The U.S. currency was little changed at $1.0284 per Australian dollar after reaching $1.0297 yesterday, the weakest since May 3.

Korea Won Hits Two-Month High, Bonds Fall on U.S. Factory Data (Source: Bloomberg)
South Korea’s won rose to its strongest level in two months and bonds declined as U.S. data beat estimates, easing concern the global economy is faltering. Asian stocks rallied after factory orders rose for the first time in three months in the world’s biggest economy. The European Central Bank will cut its benchmark interest rate by at least a quarter of a percentage point at its July 5 meeting, according to 51 of 62 forecasts in a Bloomberg survey. The Kospi Index (KOSPI) rose for a second day as overseas investors bought more of the nation’s shares than they sold for a third day. “The won is supported with stocks gaining on U.S. data,” said Lee Jung Hyun, a Seoul-based currency dealer with Industrial Bank of Korea. “Steep gains may be limited as traders are aware of the government’s intervention risks at this level, especially as the won gained a lot recently.”
The won strengthened 0.3 percent to 1,135.18 per dollar as of 9:15 a.m. in Seoul, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It touched 1,133.63 earlier, the strongest since May 4, and gained 4.1 percent for the past month. The currency’s one-month implied volatility, a measure of exchange-rate swings used to price options, dropped three basis points, or 0.03 percentage point, to 7.15 percent.

Home Sales Show Bernanke’s Low Rates Are Gaining Traction (Source: Bloomberg)
For Mike and Kathryn Fry, the time was right to take advantage of the Federal Reserve’s low interest rates to buy a home. While the couple had considered buying in recent years, they never pulled the trigger. That changed in April, when they decided on a three-bedroom, two-bathroom colonial home in Arlington, Virginia, and took out a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage at 3.75 percent. “It was a combination of our personal finances being ready and rates being great,” said Mike Fry, 28, who works for a financial-services company. “The market seemed good, and we found a house in our price range.” Their experience shows how Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s low interest-rate policy may finally be starting to pull housing out of a six-year tailspin, providing a boost to the broader economy. Home buyers are increasingly taking advantage of record-low borrowing costs as barriers such as falling prices and an overhang of foreclosures start to dissipate.
“The Fed is very much focused on the housing market because that’s typically the best way to channel low interest rates -- through home sales and refinancing,” said Michelle Meyer, senior U.S. economist at Bank of America Corp. in New York. “We are seeing some signs that the credit channel is unclogging modestly, and the Fed is going to be quite pleased with that.”

Orders to U.S. Factories Rise for First Time in Three Months (Source: Bloomberg)
Orders placed with U.S. factories rose in May for the first time in three months, easing concern that manufacturing is faltering. Auto sales for June also exceeded analysts’ estimates. The 0.7 percent increase in bookings followed a revised 0.7 percent drop in the prior month, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. The median forecast of economists in a Bloomberg News survey called for a rise to 0.1 percent. Europe’s debt crisis and a slowdown in Asian markets including China is restraining exports, weighing on the outlook for manufacturers like Joy Global Inc. and DuPont Co. (CAT) Business investment, a mainstay of growth, will provide less of a boost to the economy as a weakening labor market holds back American consumers from boosting purchases of vehicles and other goods.
“Orders were so weak in prior months that the healthy gain in May is not enough to buck the softening trend,” said Ellen Zentner, a senior economist at Nomura Securities International Inc. in New York, who projected a gain of 0.9 percent. “Business caution has become more pervasive.” Stocks rallied after the report. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index climbed 0.6 percent to 1,374.02, a two-month high, at the close of trading in New York.

Fed Officials Signal Tighter Rules on Bank-Sponsored Money Funds (Source: Bloomberg)
Federal Reserve officials spoke out twice in the past month to send a signal to money-market funds resisting tighter U.S. regulation. The message: New rules are coming, one way or another. The officials -- Governor Daniel Tarullo and Bank of Boston President Eric Rosengren -- said the Fed could take steps to limit banks’ reliance on money funds as a source of short-term cash. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has been deadlocked for months over proposed rules that would require the $2.5 trillion money-fund sector to float share prices or hold more capital, measures that could make funds less attractive to investors. The comments were “an effort to tell the industry to work with the SEC because, ‘If they don’t get you, we can,’” said Karen Shaw Petrou, a managing partner at Federal Financial Analytics, a Washington research firm. In a speech in the Netherlands, Rosengren said the Fed’s stress tests should be expanded to include money funds in their calculations.

IMF Lowers U.S. Growth Projections to 2 Percent (Source: Bloomberg)
The U.S. economy will grow by 2 percent this year and about 2.25 percent in 2013 amid a “tepid” recovery and the European debt crisis, the International Monetary Fund said, lowering its previous projections. The U.S. remains “subject to elevated downside risks, in light of financial strains in the euro area and uncertainty over domestic fiscal plans,” the IMF said in a statement today. In an April report, the IMF forecast U.S. growth of 2.1 percent this year and 2.4 percent in 2013. “Further easing” by the Federal Reserve might be needed “if the situation was to deteriorate,” IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde said at a press conference in Washington today. She said she welcomed previous actions by the Fed to help the U.S. economy, including the expansion of the so-called Operation Twist that replaces short-term Treasuries in the Fed’s portfolio with longer-term debt to lengthen the average maturity of its holdings.
Lagarde said the “downside risks” include the euro crisis and the “fiscal cliff” of expiring tax cuts and mandatory spending reductions that will take effect at the end of the year unless Congress acts.

Echo Surges $700 Million With Casino Bid Seen: Real M&A (Source: Bloomberg)
A potential bidding war between a Malaysian gaming magnate and an Australian billionaire is turning Echo Entertainment Group Ltd. (EGP) into the most expensive casino target since the financial crisis. Companies linked to Kuala Lumpur-based gambling group Genting Bhd. (GENT) and its billionaire chairman Lim Kok Thay last week sought approval to boost their combined stake in Echo to more than 10 percent, mirroring a February request by James Packer’s Crown Ltd. (CWN) Their interest already increased Echo’s market value by almost A$700 million ($700 million) to A$3.3 billion, even as analysts cut 2012 earnings estimates for Sydney’s only casino operator by 40 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Echo offers Packer, who wants a casino-hotel next to Sydney Harbour, and Genting, the only large Asian casino operator without a stake in Macau, the chance to profit from a surge in Chinese gamblers through Echo’s Sydney monopoly.
Crown can bid as much as A$5 a share, 16 percent above yesterday’s close, CLSA Asia Pacific Markets said. An offer at that level would value Echo at 13 times estimated earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, making it the priciest casino takeover since 2006, data compiled by Bloomberg show. “Genting rocking up on the register has turned the heat up,” Nick Berry, a Sydney-based analyst at Nomura Holdings Inc., said in a telephone interview. “Crown is more likely to bid than not. They have to, to get the control they want.”

China Slowdown Cuts Luxury Spending, Hong Kong Retailing (Source: Bloomberg)
China’s slowdown dragged Hong Kong’s retail-sales growth to the weakest pace since 2009 as shoppers visiting from the mainland cut back on purchases of luxury goods such as jewelry and watches. Sales increased 8.8 percent in May from a year earlier to HK$36 billion ($4.6 billion), the government said on its website yesterday. That was the smallest gain since September 2009, excluding seasonal distortions each January and February. The deceleration of Asia’s biggest economy is rippling through Hong Kong, which reported record retail-sales gains as recently as last year, and Macau, where casino revenues are increasing at a reduced pace. A loosening of monetary policy may help China to regain momentum after manufacturing gauges released on July 1 and 2 pointed to a deterioration last month.
“The consumption appetite of mainland visitors has dropped compared with last year because of the economic slowdown,” said Raymond Yeung, a Hong Kong-based economist at Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. The data “is a warning sign for Hong Kong retailers.”

China Non-Manufacturing Gauge Shows Faster Expansion in June (Source: Bloomberg)
China’s non-manufacturing industries expanded at a faster pace in June as the property market and new orders picked up, an official survey indicated. The purchasing managers’ index rose to a three-month high of 56.7 in June from 55.2 in May, the National Bureau of Statistics and China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing said in Beijing today. The result is among signs that growth in the world’s second-largest economy may steady after leaders stepped up stimulus to counter a slowdown and maintained property curbs aimed at lowering home prices. The government cut interest rates last month for the first time since 2008 and has reduced banks’ reserve requirements three times since November. “Signs are emerging that current economic growth is stabilizing,” Cai Jin, a vice chairman with CFLP, said in a statement today. “Positive factors to drive steady economic growth are converging, which is helpful for the economic expansion to stabilize and turn better in the second half.”
The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index of stocks fell 0.3 percent at 9:38 a.m. local time. The yuan weakened less than 0.1 percent against the dollar to 6.3516.

Wen Eases Off as China’s Cities Seek to Revive Home Sales (Source: Bloomberg)
Liu Xuejun, a building-equipment dealer, couldn’t restock his Shanghai showroom fast enough in 2009 as he sold an excavator every three days. Now he might wait six months between sales. “Scheduled property construction work just doesn’t kick off,” said Liu, 41, as he stood amid dozens of yellow excavators and wheel loaders in the showroom of Shanghai Wo You Construction Machinery Co. on the eastern outskirts of the city. Liu’s sales are a casualty of an economic slowdown tied to China’s efforts since 2010 to prevent a housing bubble with curbs on lending and property ownership. Now, outgoing Premier Wen Jiabao is tolerating some piecemeal measures to support the market. They include the introduction in May of home subsidies in the eastern city of Yangzhou, discounts on mortgages for first-home buyers in Beijing, and raising the tax threshold on purchases of some homes in Shanghai.
“The easing is happening now and it’s going to keep happening,” said Michael Klibaner, Shanghai-based head of China research at Jones Lang LaSalle Inc. “If you would try to get prices to drop suddenly, that would be a really scary and dangerous thing for both the economy and Wen’s legacy.”

BRICs Priced for Economic Meltdown (Source: Bloomberg)
The biggest emerging markets are contributing more than ever to the global economy as their proportion of the world stock market shrinks, leaving investors with the widest valuation gap in seven years. Brazil, Russia (INDEXCF), India and China, known as the BRICs, will comprise 20 percent of the world economy this year after growing more than four-fold in the past decade, International Monetary Fund data show. At the same time, their combined stock-market value has dropped to a three-year low of 16 percent of the total invested in equities, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. To Jim O’Neill, the chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management who coined the term BRIC in a 2001 research report, the 4 percentage point difference makes stocks in these markets irresistible. The last time the gap was this wide, in 2005, the MSCI BRIC Index (MXBRIC) jumped 53 percent in 12 months, more than double the gain in the MSCI All-Country World Index. (MXWD)
“Unless we are seeing a major collapse of those economies, it’s a huge opportunity for investors,” O’Neill, who helps oversee $824 billion, said in a June 28 phone interview. The BRIC stock markets may double by 2020 as their share of world gross domestic product increases to about 27 percent, he said.

U.K. Mortgage Lending Declines, Construction Shrinks: Economy (Source: Bloomberg)
U.K. mortgage approvals fell in May and construction shrank at the fastest rate in 2 1/2 years in June, adding to signs the housing market is slowing amid growing concern over the economic outlook. Lenders granted 51,098 loans to buy homes, compared with 51,627 the previous month, the Bank of England said today in London. A gauge of building output based on a survey fell to 48.2 from 54.4 in May, a separate report by Markit and the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply showed. The figures add to the case for Bank of England policy makers to increase stimulus when they meet this week. An index yesterday showed factory output shrank for a second month in June, suggesting the economy remains mired in recession. Demand for homes has fallen as Europe’s debt turmoil casts a shadow over Britain’s economic prospects and banks curb credit, with Nationwide Building Society reporting last week that house prices fell 0.6 percent between May and June.
“Household lending has been depressed for quite a long time and there’s no evidence of improvement on the corporate side,” said David Tinsley, an economist at BNP Paribas SA in London and a former central bank official. Economic growth in the second quarter “could well be negative. It would be very strange if the Bank of England did nothing this week.”

Euro Area Bought Some Time in Staving Off Breakup: Rogoff (Source: Bloomberg)
European leaders probably bought “a little bit of time” in staving off a euro-area breakup after last week’s summit even as the region remains a long way from stabilization, Harvard University Professor Kenneth Rogoff said. Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras asked European leaders last week to loosen austerity measures tied to 240 billion euros ($303 billion) in financial aid from international donors for his country. Greece will struggle to meet its targets and still probably default, Rogoff said in an interview with Bloomberg Television today.
European Union leaders at a June 28-29 summit agreed to loosen bailout rules, lay the foundations for a banking union and break the link between sovereign and banking debt through the direct recapitalization of lenders. Euro-area officials, fighting to prevent the sovereign-debt crisis from spreading, also took measures to bolster growth amid a global slowdown. “They are going to continue to do more and more radical measures to stand still,” Rogoff said. “We’re very, very far from a long-term vision. It’s a long difficult path, still. We’re a long ways from stabilization.”

Spain’s Waning Reserve Fund Risks Undermining Bonds: Euro Credit (Source: Bloomberg)
Spain’s social security system risks falling deeper into deficit this year, eroding the ability of its 67 billion-euro ($85 billion) pension-reserve fund to prop up the Spanish bond market. The reserve account has almost doubled its holdings of Spanish debt since 2008 as declining demand for the country’s bonds led the fund to start replacing German, French and Dutch securities with national debt. As the welfare system posts a loss, the fund’s ability to soak up new issues will diminish, adding to pressure on 10-year Spanish bonds, which yielded 482 basis points more than German bunds today. The reserve fund’s assets, built up since 2000, is equivalent to about 11 percent of the central government’s estimated outstanding debt for this year, and more than 75 percent of the planned bond issuance for 2012. Its waning firepower comes as foreign investors shun Spanish bonds and as domestic banks, which had been picking up the slack, begin to reduce their holdings.
“Domestic demand in Spain isn’t sustainably sufficient to take all the supply and any slowdown in social security investment would only worsen that,” said Luca Jellinek, head of European interest-rate strategy at Credit Agricole Corporate & Investment Bank in London.

Diamond Exit Raises Speculation of Investment-Bank Split (Source: Bloomberg)
When Robert Diamond took over Barclays Plc (BARC)’s shrinking securities unit in 1997 he vowed to turn the business into a leading global firm. Fifteen years later, his success in creating a top investment bank, whose profit reached $4.7 billion in 2011, may hasten its split from the lender after the London-based bank admitted to trying to rig global interest rates. Diamond quit as Barclays’s chief executive officer yesterday and hours later Chief Operating Officer Jerry del Missier followed. The departure of Diamond may presage a reorganization of Barclays after regulators in the U.K. and the U.S. pointed to the need for change at the company. The interest rate debacle is intensifying political pressure in the U.K. to build higher walls between banks’ consumer lending and investment-banking divisions to protect savers and taxpayers.
“Now is a very sensible time to pause, draw breath, assess what’s happened and look again at this question of a ring fence or separation,” said Clive Hollick, a former CEO of United News & Media Group Plc and member of the House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee. Barclays was hit by a record 290 million-pound ($455 million) fine last week for rigging the London Interbank Offered Rate, a benchmark for more than $360 trillion of securities. Diamond, as CEO of the investment bank from 1997 through 2010, oversaw the unit where Libor rates were submitted.

Draghi’s Giant Leap on Rates May Be Small Step for Euro Economy (Source: Bloomberg)
European Central Bank President Mario Draghi may take a giant leap in monetary policy tomorrow for limited economic gain. ECB officials meeting in Frankfurt will not only take the benchmark interest rate below 1 percent for the first time to a record low of 0.75 percent, they will also cut the deposit rate to zero, according to Bloomberg News surveys of economists. The easing will do little to aid an economy sliding into recession and may fuel speculation about what the ECB can do after its conventional policy options are spent, some economists said. “It’s a bold move and will lead the ECB into uncharted territory,” said Julian Callow, chief European economist at Barclays Capital in London. “With soaring unemployment and few signs of the economy recovering, some strong monetary medicine is needed. But let’s be honest, a rate cut by itself will not end the recession, we need much more for that.”
Europe’s sovereign debt crisis, which has forced five of the 17 euro nations to seek bailouts, is curbing growth across the continent and damping the global economic outlook. While ECB rate cuts might not stimulate demand, they would lower borrowing costs for troubled banks. They could also build on the confidence boost that euro-area governments provided last week when they took steps toward a deeper economic union.

Asian Tourists Save on Gucci as Euro Weakens, Peso Surges (Source: Bloomberg)
Ayie Aligada, a former airline training manager from Manila, gained from the Philippine peso’s 4 percent jump against the euro in as many weeks when she snapped up a Chloe bag for 1,475 euros ($1,856) on a month-long jaunt through Europe. She had plenty of company on her May tour of Paris, Barcelona and Rome, where Asian shoppers are lining up outside luxury goods stores. Elaine Chua, 32, a Singaporean homemaker, went to Paris for four days in April and saved about 1,500 Singapore dollars ($1,178) on a Chanel bag, the price of a return airfare. Pongsak Luangaram, 41, a lecturer from Bangkok, dropped a plan to visit Japan and went to Italy in May, buying a Ferrari jacket. Europe is becoming a more attractive destination for Asians after the peso surged 19 percent against the euro in the past year and China’s yuan climbed 17 percent. Bookings rose 30 percent in Manila in the first quarter and 12 percent more Chinese are forecast to visit France in 2012.
Their spending is supporting hotels, stores and restaurant s as the debt crisis batters local demand. Ermenegildo Zegna SpA is stocking more styles favored by the visitors and Prada SpA may raise prices. “With the slowing economy and lingering debt crisis, the euro will continue to weaken against Asian currencies,” said Akira Takei, the Tokyo-based head of the international fixed- income department at Mizuho Asset Management Co., which oversees about $41 billion and is part of Japan’s third-biggest publicly traded bank. “Exchange rates are favorable for Asian shoppers and tourism businesses in Europe, but the pickup in visitors won’t be enough to reverse the slump.”

20120704 0951 Global Commodities Related News.

DTN Closing Grain Comments 07/03 13:08 : Grains Extend Impressive Run (Source: CME)
Free-falling crop conditions in corn and beans sparked another sharp rally in grains with new highs posted for the move. Sweltering temperatures over the next five days will put additional stress on the row-crops and spring wheat something that provided additional support. The CME will be closed until 9:30 (CDT) Thursday morning in observance of the Fourth of 4th holiday.

Pro-Farmer: Grains Recap (Source: CME)
Corn futures enjoyed moderate gains throughout the session and rallied into the close to finish just off their daily highs with gains of 26 1/4 cents in the July contract, while deferred months closed 17 1/2 to 21 3/4 cents higher. Funds bought an estimated 15,000 contracts (75 million bu.) of corn today. Traders focused on building weather premium into prices today as USDA's slash to its crop condition ratings yesterday emphasized the quickly deteriorating condition of the crop -- especially with 25% of it sulking as of July 1.
Soybean futures finished 34 3/4 to 40 cents higher in the July through January 2013 contracts. Far-deferred futures posted slightly lesser gains. All contracts ended near session highs. Weather was again the source of support in the soybean market today. After USDA lowered crop condition ratings more than anticipated yesterday afternoon, traders responded by building more weather premium into the market.
Wheat futures closed mostly 20-plus cents higher in Chicago and Kansas City, while Minneapolis wheat finished mostly 30-plus cents higher. Futures at all three exchanges finished high-range. With the corn and soybean markets leading the way, wheat futures rallied sharply into the Fourth of July break. Additional fundamental support came from crop concerns in areas of Europe, the Former Soviet Union, Australia and China.
Cotton futures enjoyed tentative short-covering today and rallied into the close to finish at or near their daily highs with gains of 41 to 60 points. Yesterday's Crop Condition Report from USDA helped cotton futures to extend their corrective rebound as it raised some concerns about the U.S. crop.

Wheat Market Recap Report (Source: CME)
September Wheat finished up 26 3/4 at 799 1/4, 1 1/2 off the high and 25 up from the low. December Wheat closed up 23 at 813 3/4. This was 23 up from the low and 1 1/4 off the high. Chicago September wheat traded sharply higher to end the day but Minneapolis September wheat was the leader, up 32 1/4 cents. Kansas City September traded 26 cents higher into the close. The wheat markets saw support from a sharply higher energy and corn markets. The 5-day weather outlook calls for very hot and dry conditions for the Midwest and northern Delta region. Wheat was a follower of corn on the move higher. Spring wheat in the Black Sea is expected to see showers this week but long term forecasts call for drier conditions. The Prime Minister of Ukraine announced that no plans are being made to limit gain exports for the 2012/13 crop year and the India government has approved 2 million tonnes of wheat exports for overseas shipment. Wheat shook off the bearish news and traded higher with corn. Paris Matif Wheat future traded to new contract high on spillover from U.S. wheat markets. September Oats closed up 3 3/4 at 351. This was 4 up from the low and 7 3/4 off the high.

Corn Market Recap for 7/3/2012 (Source: CME)
September Corn finished up 21 3/4 at 674, 1 1/4 off the high and 16 3/4 up from the low. December Corn closed up 18 3/4 at 674 1/2. This was 13 3/4 up from the low and 1 1/2 off the high. The corn market traded higher into close after the December contract moved above the August 2011 highs of 6.73 1/2 and closed near the highs of the day. Cash corn in the Gulf of Mexico was steady today but futures rallied on blistering heat and lack of rainfall. The 5-day weather outlook calls for very hot and dry conditions for the Midwest and northern Delta region. The 6-10 day forecast calls for cooler temperatures but still lacks any significant rain accumulation. While the moisture and cooler temperatures will be welcomed, the rainfall is not expected to improve soil moisture conditions for the driest areas of the Corn Belt. The corn market rallied a day after Crop Condition reports showed sharply lower decreases in corn condition ratings. The report noted that 25% of the U.S. corn crop is silking as of Sunday. Traders believe that next Monday's report will show another round of lower ratings as the pollination pace increases with the unusually warm temperatures. Corn was also supported after energy markets rallied and the U.S. Dollar trading slightly weaker. September Rice finished up 0.325 at 15.005, equal to the high and 0.015 up from the low.

Corn rally needs fresh bull interest
--Gavin Maguire is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.--
CHICAGO, July 3 (Reuters) - The recent sustained price strength in corn has occurred amid intensifying concern about how this season's stretch of hot and dry weather across the Midwest has caused widespread damage to the emerging crop, and has given the impression of bullish buying interest flowing into this arena.
But most of the trading action seen has actually been traders exiting short positions rather than establishing long exposure, leaving this market in dire need of fresh bullish buying interest if it is to extend its recent gains.

Corn jumps to 10-month top, soy near 4-year high
SINGAPORE, July 3 (Reuters) - Chicago corn rose to a 10-month top stretching gains into a third straight session, while soybeans surged to their highest in almost four years as a U.S. report cut crop condition ratings in a fresh blow to world corn and soy supplies.
"The yields are going to be decimated if this hot weather continues in the U.S. and the huge crops that we are looking for are not going to be achieved."

India's farm minister says no worry yet as rains stall
NEW DELHI, July 3 (Reuters) - India's crucial monsoons should improve next week, Farm Minister Sharad Pawar said on Tuesday, amid growing concern over a halt in the progress of the June to September rains that has hit sowing of some crops in the major food producer and consumer.
"By and large the situation may not be fully satisfactory but it is not bad either ... There is ample opportunity to cover the delay," Pawar said in a meeting with journalists after newspapers reported rising worry over low rainfall.

Ukraine grain exports at 21.8 mln T in 11/12 - AgMin
KIEV, July 3 (Reuters) - Ukraine's grain exports totalled 21.8 million tonnes in the July-June 2011/12 season against 12.8 million tonnes in 2010/11, the Agriculture Ministry said on Tuesday.
The ministry said in a statement the former Soviet republic had exported 1.96 million tonnes of grain in June, the last month of the 2011/12 season.

Northeast US Corn Belt to get a bit wetter
CHICAGO, July 2 (Reuters) - Midday forecasts called for slightly wetter weather in parts of the U.S. Midwest, but much of the region will still face relentless heat and dryness, trimming corn and soybean crop prospects, meteorologists said.
"The 1- to 5-day (forecast) is slightly wetter in Michigan, northern Indiana and northwestern Ohio," said Paul Markert, meteorologist for Cropcast.

IGC cuts 2012/13 wheat crop outlook, raises maize
LONDON, July 2 (Reuters) - The International Grains Council on Monday cut its forecast for global wheat production in 2012/13 as the outlook for the crop in key exporter Russia deteriorated.
World wheat production was cut to 665 million tonnes from a previous forecast of 671 million and now stands well below the prior season's 695 million.

US corn and soy wilt from unrelenting heat and dryness
CHICAGO, July 2 (Reuters) - The soybean and corn crops in the U.S. Midwest will get hit hard again this week by unrelenting high heat and dryness, said an agricultural meteorologist on Monday.
"We're still looking at a scenario providing below-average rainfall for at least the next 10 days," said John Dee of Global Weather Monitoring.

Sugar up on Brazil delays, arabicas build on gains
LONDON, July 3 (Reuters) - Sugar futures on ICE edged higher consolidating gains after the October contract hit a two-month high the previous session, boosted by delays to top producer Brazil's harvest after wet weather.
Arabica coffee was also supported by concerns over the impact of rain on the quality of the coming crop, with prices firming in early trading, while cocoa was up slightly.

Brazil sugar producer turns futures buyer amid delays
BRASILIA/NEW YORK, July 2 (Reuters) - Top Brazilian sugar grower Copersucar S.A. has turned buyer, becoming what is believed to be the first producer to take physical delivery from the futures market in over half a century.
Copersucar will take delivery of 2,216 lots, or 112,578 tonnes, of sugar against the ICE Futures U.S. July expiry last Friday, Copersucar spokesman Guilherme Pena said, confirming market speculation. He declined to make any further comment. The delivery has a notional value of over $50 million.

Coffee exports from Honduras, Costa Rica rise in June
TEGUCIGALPA, July 2 (Reuters) - Coffee exports from Honduras, Central America's top producer, nearly doubled in June compared with the same month a year ago, reaching 788,129 60-kg bags for the month.  
Honduras' coffee association IHCAFE said exports through the first nine months of the 2011/2012 harvesting season totaled 4.49 million bags.

Brazil coffee exports down sharply on yr in June
BRASILIA, July 2 (Reuters) - Exports of green coffee from world top producer Brazil fell to 1.69 million bags in June, down from 2.2 million bags this time last year, trade ministry data showed.
The shipments are from the 2011/12 season, which was a smaller harvest, accounting for some of the dip.

Brazil's Bahia cocoa flow hits cruising speed
SAO PAULO, July 2 (Reuters) - Cocoa arrivals in Brazil's main cocoa state Bahia have risen to near peak flow from the mid-crop harvest and the supplies look set to continue strong in July and August, according to commercial data and comments from a local analyst.
Deliveries from other smaller cocoa-growing states dipped during the week through June 24 due to logistics problems in the state of Para, Bahia-based cocoa analyst Thomas Hartmann said in a weekly crop bulletin without giving more details.

Ivorian rains boost 2012/13 main crop, sun needed
ABIDJAN, July 2 (Reuters) - More sun is needed to strengthen the development of Ivory Coast's 2012/13 main cocoa crop, which was helped by abundant rainfall last week in most regions, farmers and analysts said on Monday.  
Farmers said flowering for the main crop has started in the world's largest producer of cocoa, and a good mix of rain and sunshine is crucial in July to trigger more flowering and boost growth.

India's 2012/13 sugar output seen at 25 mln T-industry
NEW DELHI, July 2 (Reuters) - India may produce 25 million tonnes of sugar in the next marketing year starting Oct. 1, the main producers' body said on Monday, down by 1 million tonnes from the likely output in the year to September.
India, the world's top producer after Brazil, is expected to produce a total 26 million tonnes in the 12 months from Oct. 1, 2011 - about 4 million tonnes higher than its annual demand. Around 3 million tonnes of exports have already been approved.

China may change fuel pricing, boosting transparency
--Clyde Russell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.--
LAUNCESTON, Australia, July 3 (Reuters) - China may soon cut fuel prices for a third time this year, but more importantly, it may also change the pricing formula, a move that would take Asia's largest economy further along the transparency road.
The current system allows for oil product prices to drop if a basket of three crudes declines by more than four percent over a 22-day period, a condition that has been met since the last adjustment on June 9

OIL-Oil rises to $99 on stimulus hopes, Iran
LONDON, July 3 (Reuters) - Oil rose to $99 a barrel as investors bet on further policy action to support global economic growth and tension over Iran and a strike in Norway kept oil supply concerns in focus.
"Iran is always a factor and it has the potential to have a dramatic impact on oil prices," said Ben Le Brun, a markets analyst at OptionsXpress in Sydney.

POLL-US crude stocks seen falling on storm outages
July 2 (Reuters) - U.S. commercial crude oil stockpiles were forecast to have fallen last week on production cuts in the Gulf of Mexico because of Tropical Storm Debby, a preliminary Reuters poll showed on Monday.
The survey of six analysts, ahead of weekly inventory reports from industry group American Petroleum Institute (API) and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), forecast on average that crude stocks would drop 2.2 million barrels for the week ended June 29.

Oil Trades Near One-Month High on Factory Orders, Iran Tension (Source: Bloomberg)
Oil traded near the highest close in a month in New York after U.S. factory orders rose for the first time in three months and Iran said sanctions threaten the Persian Gulf country’s national security. Futures were little changed after climbing 4.7 percent yesterday. Orders placed with factories rose 0.7 percent in May following a revised 0.7 percent drop in the prior month, beating economists’ estimates. A European Union ban on Iranian crude exports is an “antagonistic move,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast said in Tehran. U.S. oil stockpiles fell 3 million barrels last week, according to a report from the American Petroleum Institute. Oil for August delivery was at $87.73 a barrel, up 7 cents, in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 9:23 a.m. Sydney time. The contract yesterday surged $3.91 to $87.66, the highest close since May 30. Prices are 11 percent lower this year. Floor trading will be closed July 4 for the U.S. Independence Day holiday.
Brent oil for August settlement gained $3.34, or 3.4 percent, to $100.68 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange yesterday. The European benchmark’s premium to West Texas Intermediate closed at $13.02.

Gold Set to Gain as ETP Holdings Rise to Record on Stimulus Bets (Source: Bloomberg)
Gold may climb for a second day on signs of increased investment demand amid speculation that central banks will take more steps to boost growth. Spot gold was little changed at $1,618.25 an ounce by 8:28 a.m. in Singapore, after climbing 1.3 percent yesterday to a two-week high. Holdings in exchange-traded products backed by bullion expanded to a record 2,412.422 metric tons yesterday, data compiled by Bloomberg showed. “It’s about protecting purchasing power,” Ben Davies, co- founder of Hinde Capital Ltd. and manager of the Hinde Gold Fund, said in a Bloomberg Television interview. “We’ll migrate to $2,000 by year-end.” Manufacturing deteriorated from the U.S. to China, according to data this week, prompting increased speculation central banks will add to stimulus. That helped commodities rally to a five-week high yesterday.
August-delivery bullion fell 0.2 percent to $1,619.20 an ounce on the Comex in New York, after advancing 1.5 percent yesterday. U.S. markets are closed today for the Independence Day holiday.

Gold Climbs on Speculation Central Banks to Spur Growth (Source: Bloomberg)
Gold climbed to the highest price in two weeks amid speculation that central banks will take more action to spur growth, boosting demand for the metal as an inflation hedge. Reports showed yesterday that euro-area manufacturing output contracted for an 11th straight month in June and manufacturing in the U.S. unexpectedly shrank. European Central Bank officials are forecast to cut their main interest rate to an all-time low on July 5, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists. “People are expecting some form of easing both in the U.S. and Europe,” Frank McGhee, the head dealer at Integrated Brokerage Services LLC in Chicago, said in a telephone interview. “The chatter is growing louder.” Gold futures for August delivery rose 1.5 percent to settle at $1,621.80 an ounce at 1:41 p.m. on the Comex in New York, after climbing to $1,625.70, the highest for a most-active contract since June 19.
The metal is up 3.5 percent this year. Prices surged 70 percent from the end of December 2008 to June 2011 as the Federal Reserve kept borrowing costs at a record low and bought $2.3 trillion of debt in two rounds of so-called quantitative easing. Silver futures for September delivery gained 2.8 percent to $28.28 an ounce on the Comex. Earlier, prices touched $28.445, the highest since June 20.

Silver Market Recap Report (Source: CME)
With crude oil and copper flashing higher this morning it is possible that silver was garnering a lift from classic economic optimism. While silver and other physical commodity markets might be disappointed with the eventual action from the ECB and Fed in the near term a number of markets might be content to buy the rumor of action directly ahead. With the Euro managing to shake off initial weakness today, crude oil prices at times rising by more that $4.00 a barrel and September silver reaching up to the highest level since June 20th it's a good bet that silver prices were lifted by a combination of fundamental and technical developments.

20120704 0951 Soy Oil & Palm Oil Related News.

Pro-Farmer: Grains Recap (Source: CME)
Soybean futures finished 34 3/4 to 40 cents higher in the July through January 2013 contracts. Far-deferred futures posted slightly lesser gains. All contracts ended near session highs. Weather was again the source of support in the soybean market today. After USDA lowered crop condition ratings more than anticipated yesterday afternoon, traders responded by building more weather premium into the market.

Soybean Complex Market Recap (Source: CME)
August Soybeans finished up 35 1/4 at 1529 1/2, 3 1/2 off the high and 32 up from the low. November Soybeans closed up 36 3/4 at 1474 3/4. This was 33 1/2 up from the low and 3 1/4 off the high. August Soymeal closed up 11.9 at 447.2. This was 11.2 up from the low and 1.1 off the high. August Soybean Oil finished up 0.78 at 53.14, 0.02 off the high and 0.69 up from the low. Soybeans were trading near the highs of the session heading into the close. November soybeans pushed above 14.50 early and closed at the upper end of the daily range, posting a fresh high for the move. August soybean oil and soybean meal also traded sharply higher on the day. Soybean products saw support after it was reported that U.S. exporters sold 35,000 tonnes of soybean oil to China for 2011/12 marketing year. The 5-day weather outlook calls for very hot and dry conditions for the Midwest and northern Delta region. The 6-10 day forecast calls for cooler temperatures but still lacks much in the way of rain coverage. While the moisture and cooler temperatures will be welcomed, the rainfall is not expected to improve soil moisture conditions for the driest areas of the Soybean Belt. Soybeans saw further support after Crop Condition reports showed sharply lower decreases in condition ratings. Traders are also anticipating strong demand for U.S. soybeans and soybean products, from international buyers after a poor production year in South America. Scorching temperatures will likely produce another round of crop condition downgrades next Monday.

Palm ends off 5-week high on US dry weather
SINGAPORE, July 3 (Reuters) - Malaysian crude palm oil futures touched the highest in five weeks as a U.S. crop report cutting soybean crop condition ratings cemented market views of a tighter global oilseed supply.
"The weather issue is still in play and we have a positive sentiment on demand as Ramadan is coming closer," said Ker Chung Yang, commodities analyst with Phillip Futures in Singapore, referring to the Muslim fasting month that begins in end-July.

Celeres raises 11/12 soy crop estimate by 2 pct
SAO PAULO, July 2 (Reuters) - Brazil's now-finished 2011/12 soy harvest is estimated to have produced 66.3 million tonnes, local grains analyst Celeres estimated on Monday, up from its prior estimate in May of 64.95 million tonnes. The corn crop was also estimated to be larger.
The consultancy said it raised its figures for productivity resulting in the increase in the estimate for the crop, which was blighted by drought in the southern states in the first months of this year. The drought slashed millions of tonnes off initial projections and put Chicago soy futures prices  on a steep rise.