Wednesday, June 13, 2012

20120613 1805 FCPO EOD Daily Chart Study.

FCPO closed : 2950, changed : -15 points, volume : lower.
Bollinger band reading : downside biased.
MACD Histogram : rising, buyer seller battling.
Support :  2950, 2920, 2900, 2850 level.
Resistance : 2970, 3020, 3050, 3070 level.
Comment :
FCPO closed weaker with drying out volume traded. Soy oil price currently trading higher after overnight closed recorded marginal loss while crude oil price currently trading little lower after overnight rebound.
Concerns on uncertainty over Europe region debt crisis development will result weaker palm oil demand pressure FCPO price to trade lower despite recorded lower inventory level.
Technical chart analysis revised to resume calling a downside biased market development testing support and resistance with the last 2 doji bars shows uncertainty.
When to buy : buy at support or weakness with quick cut loss and profit target.
When to sell : sell at resistant or strength with quick cut loss and profit target.

20120613 1733 FKLI EOD Daily Chart Study.

FKLI closed : 1572.5 changed : -2 points, volume : lower.
Bollinger band reading : side way range bound little upside biased.
MACD Histogram : turned downward, buyer seller battling.
Support : 1570, 1565, 1550, 1530 level.
Resistance : 1580, 1590, 1600, 1610 level.
Comment :
FKLI closed recorded small loss with accelerating Europe cup mood and quiet volume participation doing about 4 points discount compare to cash market that closed nearly unchanged. Overnight U.S. markets closed rallied higher and today Asia markets ended mostly higher while European markets currently having negative development.
Speculation on U.S. Federal Reserve and China will take steps to stimulate their economy plus Japan machinery orders increased more than estimates push U.S. and most Asia markets to trade higher. European markets currently trading lower as Italy Treasury bill sale recorded higher yield (higher borrowing cost) and awaits U.s. retails sales report.
FKLI daily chart technical study still suggesting a side way range bound little upside biased market development.
When to buy : buy at support or weakness with quick cut loss and profit target.
When to sell : sell at resistance or strength with quick cut loss and profit target.

20120613 1706 Regional Markets EOD Daily Chart Study.

 DJIA chart reading : correction range bound little downside biased.
 Hang Seng chart reading : correction range bound little downside biased.
KLCI chart reading :  little upside biased testing resistance level.

20120613 1607 Global Market & Commodities Related News.

Asian shares edged higher in choppy trade and European stocks were also poised to gain, but the euro slipped as worries over contagion from Spain's banking sector were heightened after the country's bond yields hit record peaks. U.S. stocks took their cues from Europe's troubled debt markets on Tuesday, staging a comeback rally to end up more than 1 percent as Spanish bond yields came off euro-era record highs.

The euro edged lower ethered to a familiar range with investors sticking to the sidelines ahead of an Italian bond sale the next day and a weekend vote in Greece that could determine the future of the euro zone.

FOREX-Euro edges lower before Italian debt sale, Greek vote
TOKYO, June 13 (Reuters) - The euro edged lower on Wednesday, t ethered to a familiar range with investors sticking to the sidelines ahead of an Italian bond sale the next day and a weekend vote in Greece that could determine the future of the euro zone.
The single currency took a breather after Spanish bond yields hit a euro-era peak as the decision to lend the country's ailing lenders 100 billion euro fuelled fears it will struggle to access debt markets as its own debts mount.

Chicago corn slid falling for a third consecutive session on pressure from forecasters of more rain in the U.S. Midwest and a government report which kept the stocks unchanged.

From Russia to U.S., wheat crop gets smaller-USDA
Harsh weather in Russia, Europe and the United States will shrivel the global wheat harvest, leading to sharply lower consumption, the U.S. government forecast on Tuesday.

Australia cuts wheat output forecast, fuels prices
Australia on Wednesday downgraded its winter wheat production forecast by more than 7 percent to 24.1 million tonnes, almost one-fifth smaller than last year's record crop, citing average-to-dry growing conditions so far this year.

Argentine farmers to end strike, warn of more protests
Argentine farmers said they would allow a one-week freeze on grains sales to end as planned on Tuesday, but threatened to stage more anti-government protests against taxes and export curbs.

Rain helps some EU rapeseed, lashes UK crops
Spring rain continued to bring relief to rapeseed in parts of western Europe this week after many crops were hurt by winter frost, but the region was still forecast to produce a smaller harvest this summer.

Brent crude slipped below $97 ahead of a meeting of producer group OPEC this week, and as uncertainty over Europe's ability to tackle its debt crisis intensified fears of a slowdown in oil demand growth.

OPEC, US govt see easing oil market conditions ahead
OPEC and the U.S. government agreed o n T uesday that global oil markets could loosen further in the second half of the year, with prospects for demand dimming while non-OPEC supply races ahead more quickly than expected.

Sinopec resists bargain Iran crude, eyes U.S. ties - source
Chinese refining giant Sinopec Corp , the biggest buyer of Iranian oil, has no plans to raise its Iranian crude imports for the rest of this year so as to avoid falling foul of tough U.S. sanctions on Tehran's oil trade, a senior Chinese oil executive said.

US presses Turkey to cut more Iranian oil imports
The United States has pressed Turkey to follow up on a 20 percent cut in oil purchases from Iran with a further cut in six months time to help persuade Iran to quit stalling in talks over its nuclear programme, a U.S. diplomat said on Tuesday.

US oil renaissance needs tax breaks-Romney adviser
Ending a tax break that lets oil companies quickly deduct labor and other drilling costs would be a devastating hit on the country's booming energy sector, a top energy adviser to Republican Mitt Romney's presidential campaign told lawmakers on Tuesday.

Euro Coal-Bids slump but no fresh trades done
LONDON, June 12 (Reuters) - European delivered coal prices slid sharply on Tuesday as oversupply and a halt to spot buying weighed on the market, pushing bid/offer levels to fresh lows although no trades were reported.
South African prompt prices have tumbled during the past week from nearly $90 a tonne FOB to below $80 - a July cargo was bid at $79.00 early on Tuesday - as spot buyers remained on the sidelines.

World may face aluminum deficit in 2013-Rio Tinto
The global aluminum market will be more balanced this year and could shift into a supply deficit by 2013 as new projects fail to keep the pace with high-cost capacity cuts this year, Rio Tinto Alcan's  Chief Executive said Tuesday.

EU steelmakers speed shift to high value to survive
European steelmakers, fighting for survival in a fast-shrinking market, are speeding up a switch to sophisticated products that add more value and help them withstand aggressive imports of basic grades of steel.

Iron Ore-Spot bids rise, but price upside seen limited
SINGAPORE, June 13 (Reuters) - Bids for spot iron ore cargoes in top market China edged up, with more steel producers keen on replenishing stockpiles after a recent drop in prices, although traders doubt the upward momentum can be sustained.
Chinese steel mills could curb output in response to slackening demand, with traders saying some smaller mills have already begun cutting production, and that may hurt demand for iron ore. China buys around 60 percent of global iron ore output.

Codelco CEO says global woes threaten expected copper surplus

SANTIAGO, June 12 (Reuters) - Miners are deferring investments because of a crisis in Europe and a slowdown in China - potentially eroding a copper surplus forecast for 2015, Chile's state copper giant Codelco's CEO Thomas Keller said on Tuesday.
World No. 1 copper producer Codelco  plans to spend $27 billion by 2020 to lift annual output to 2.1 million tonnes from this year's aim of around 1.7 million - sticking by its plans despite current global woes.

Copper rose slightly but mostly stayed in narrow ranges amid thin volumes, reflecting investor caution as a resolution to Europe's debt crisis remained elusive, clouding the outlook for raw material demand.

Gold perched above $1,600 an ounce retaining most of its gains from the previous session as prices were supported by persistent worries over Spain's surging borrowing costs.

METALS-Copper edges up, but Europe fears weigh
SHANGHAI, June 13 (Reuters) - Copper rose slightly on Wednesday, but mostly stayed in narrow ranges amid thin volumes, reflecting investor caution as a resolution to Europe's debt crisis remained elusive, clouding the outlook for raw material demand.
Spain's surging borrowing cost and uncertainty ahead of Greek elections this weekend have trimmed appetite for risk assets after a rally in Asia on Monday, when London copper rose the most in nearly two months.

PRECIOUS-Gold stays above $1,600/oz, Spain woes support
SINGAPORE, June 13 (Reuters) - Gold perched above $1,600 an ounce on Wednesday, retaining most of its gains from the previous session as prices were supported by persistent worries over Spain's surging borrowing costs.
Gold has attracted occasional safe-haven flow in the past few weeks, after moving in tandem with riskier assets since late last year as the euro zone debt crisis squeezed liquidity and rattled financial markets.

Baltic index rises on higher panamax rates
June 12 (Reuters) - The Baltic Exchange's main sea freight index, which tracks rates for ships carrying dry commodities, rose for a third straight session on Tuesday on higher rates for panamax vessels in the Atlantic.
The overall index, a gauge of the cost of shipping commodities such as iron ore, cement, grain, coal and fertiliser, rose 9 points or 1.02 percent to 893 points.

20120613 1100 Global Market & Commodities Related News.

GLOBAL MARKETS-Shares rise on higher U.S. market, Europe worries cap
TOKYO, June 13 (Reuters) - Asian shares rose on Wednesday, following gains in European and U.S. markets where bargain hunters bought beaten down stocks, but markets remained vulnerable to the euro zone's debt woes as Spanish yields hit record highs on worries over banks.    
"There is nothing substantial in the recovery in sentiment, and it appears only to be supported by hopes Europeans will take more measures to ensure the Spanish aid will work while seeking to buy time for Greece," said Yuji Saito, director of foreign exchange at Credit Agricole Bank in Tokyo.

COMMODITIES-Markets mixed, Europe fears limit moves
NEW YORK, June 12 (Reuters) - The commodities complex was mixed o n T uesday with higher prices in nearly half of the most commonly followed futures markets offset by price drops in the rest due to lingering worries over Europe.
"It's not so much the fundamentals that are driving the prices but the concerns, the fears and the psychological factors," said Eugen Weinberg, commodities analyst at Frankfurt's Commerzbank.

Tumbling oil tests notional price floor
--John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own--
LONDON, June 12 (Reuters) - Following recent falls, oil prices are much closer to the industry's marginal cost, especially in North America, where light sweet crude futures are now valued at only a little over $80 per barrel.
For bullish investors, lower prices promise to provide support by threatening to curb rapid output growth, especially from high-cost tight oil and bitumen projects across the United States and Canada, as well as deepwater exploration, unless the global economy enters another tailspin.

OIL-Brent slips, US crude edges up on spread trade
NEW YORK, June 12 (Reuters) - Brent crude fell and U.S. crude edged up on T uesday in spread trading that reacted to data showing a drawdown in stockpiles at a key U.S. hub as concerns persisted that the euro zone debt crisis will curb demand for oil.
"People are waiting for details on what OPEC will decide on production levels. They are also waiting for weekly U.S. inventory data," said Rich Ilczyszyn, chief market strategist at in Chicago.    

Vietnam to propose oil, gas development with Japan-media
TOKYO, June 13 (Reuters) - Vietnam's state oil and gas group Petrovietnam plans to invite Japanese firms to join it in the joint development of about 20 oil and gas blocks in the South China Sea, the Nikkei business daily said on Wednesday.
Petrovietnam will hold a briefing session for Japanese firms in early July, the unsourced report said. Japanese firms will also be given a chance to invest in infrastructure projects, including oil refineries and coal-fired power plants, totalling $24.8 billion, it said.

POLL-US crude stocks seen down on lower imports
June 12 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil supplies were forecast to have fallen  last week for the second straight time due to lower imports, an expanded Reuters poll of analysts showed on Tuesday.
Commercial crude stocks were projected down 1.4 million barrels for the week ended June 8, with 10 of 11 analysts expecting a draw and the other a build.

Libya oil output recovered to 1.5 mln bpd-minister
VIENNA, June 12 (Reuters) - Libya's oil output has climbed back to 1.5 million barrels per day, Oil Minister Abdulrahman Ben Yazza told reporters on Tuesday, on his arrival for Thursday's OPEC meeting.
Libya was pumping a little under 1.6 million bpd before its civil war.

NATURAL GAS-US natgas futures end up slightly after six-week low
NEW YORK, June 12 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures ended slightly higher on Tuesday on technical buying and short-covering after hitting a six-week low earlier in the day.
"Prices came down pretty hard over the last three weeks, but I think the downside risk from here is relatively low. I'm looking for weather to pick up demand," said Steve Platt, analyst at Archer Financial in Chicago.

EURO COAL-Bids slump but no fresh trades done
LONDON, June 12 (Reuters) - European delivered coal prices slid sharply on Tuesday as oversupply and a halt to spot buying weighed on the market, pushing bid/offer levels to fresh lows although no trades were reported.
"Richards Bay coal only needs to fall another $2 and it will price into Europe, although not for very long," one trader said.

20120613 0943 Malaysia Corporate Related News.

KWAP takes up entire RM1bn ‘perpetual’ sukuk by MAS
Pension fund KWAP took up the entire RM1bn sukuk issued by national airline MAS in the first move for its funding programme announced last month. MAS also said it has secured “firm commitments” for the remaining RM1.5bn of its perpetual junior sukuk programme. (Malaysian Reserve)

Mohammed Rashdan resigns from MAS
MAS announced the resignation of Mohammed Rashdan Yusof as deputy group CEO, expressing appreciation and stressing the important role he played in formulating the turnaround of the loss-making national carrier, which has shown positive results. (Malaysian Reserve)

UEM Land to adopt a dividend policy payout of 20%-40%
UEM Land Holdings has announced that the company will be adopting a dividend policy of a payout of 20% to 40% of the group‟s consolidated realized profit after tax and minority interests. (Malaysian Reserve)

IHH locks in cornerstone investors for IPO
Blackrock Inc, Capital Group and Och-Ziff Capital Management Group have emerged as cornerstone investors in the USD2bn listing of IHH Healthcare, according to two sources with direct knowledge of the flotation. The other cornerstone investors were Singapore sovereign wealth fund Government of Singapore Investment Corp, Fullerton Fund Management, AIA Group and Hwang Investment Management, the sources said. (StarBiz)

20120613 0943 Global Economy Related News.

India: Factory output missing estimates adds to rate-cut case
Indian industrial production rose less than estimated in April, adding to the case for an interest-rate cut to bolster a weakening economy. Production at factories, utilities and mines increased 0.1% from a year earlier, after a revised 3.2% drop in March, the Central Statistical Office said. The median of 37 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey was for a 1.7% climb. (Bloomberg)

Spain: Record yields show Italy bailout risk as crisis spreads
Spain‟s benchmark borrowing costs climbed to a record, raising the specter of sovereign bailouts for the government in Madrid and then Italy that would stretch European Union finances to their limit. The yield on Spanish 10-year government debt rose for a third day, touching 6.83%, the highest since 1997, after Fitch Ratings predicted that Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy will miss budget-deficit targets he‟s made the foundation of his economic policy. Italian 10-year yields rose to the highest in almost six months. (Bloomberg)

UK: Factory output dropped more than forecast in April
UK manufacturing fell more than economists forecast in April, pointing to continued weakness in the economy at the start of the second quarter. Factory output dropped 0.7% from March, led by pharmaceuticals, aircraft maintenance and food and drink production, the Office for National Statistics said. The median forecast of 30 economists in a Bloomberg News survey was for a decline of 0.1%. Overall industrial output was unchanged on the month, weaker than the 0.1% increase forecast by economists. (Bloomberg)

US: Prices of US goods imports decrease by most in two years
Prices of goods imported into the US fell in May by the most in almost two years, reflecting lower costs for fuel and food. The 1% decrease in the import-price index, the biggest since June 2010, follows an unchanged reading in April, Labor Department figures showed. The drop matched the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey. Prices excluding fuel fell 0.1%. (Bloomberg)

US: Confidence at US small companies holds near 14-month high
Confidence among US small businesses held in May near a 14-month high as more companies projected the economy will improve, a survey found. The National Federation of Independent Business‟s optimism index declined to 94.4 from April‟s 94.5 reading that was the highest since February 2011, the Washington-based group said. Four of the measure‟s 10 components increased and two were unchanged. (Bloomberg)

US stocks advance amid speculation of more economic stimulus
US stocks advanced, rebounding from yesterday‟s decline, amid speculation the Federal Reserve will take steps to stimulate the economy and after the European Central Bank endorsed a plan to guarantee bank deposits. The S&P 500 advanced 1.2% to 1,324.18 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 162.57 points, or 1.3%, to 12,573.80. Trading volume for exchange-listed stocks in the US was about 6.2bn shares, 8.6% below the three-month average. (Bloomberg)

20120613 0941 Global Market Related News.

Asian Stocks Advance as ECB Backs Bank-Deposit Guarantee (Source: Bloomberg)
Asian stocks rose as Japan’s machinery orders topped economists’ estimates and the European Central Bank endorsed a plan to guarantee bank deposits. Fanuc Corp., a maker of industrial robots, added 0.7 percent in Tokyo. Mazda Motor Corp. (7261), which gets 17 percent of its sales from Europe, rose 1 percent. OCI Co., South Korea’s biggest maker of polysilicon used in solar panels, jumped 4.5 percent in Seoul after First Solar Inc., the world’s largest maker of thin-film panels, said demand from Europe grew. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index (MXAP) gained 0.2 percent to 113.06 as of 9:36 a.m. in Tokyo, with about three shares rising for every two that fell. The gauge fell 12 percent from this year’s peak on Feb. 29 through yesterday amid concern growth in the U.S. and China is slowing and as Europe’s debt crisis intensified. Greece holds elections June 17 that may determine the country’s future in the euro.
“There is now greater faith in the backstop of the ECB’s liquidity support,” said Markus Rosgen, head of Asian equity strategy at Citigroup Inc. in Hong Kong. “The global outlook is certainly confusing, and far from rosy, but the market has discounted this already.”

Japan Stocks Rise on Machinery Orders, ECB Deposit Plan (Source: Bloomberg)
June 13 (Bloomberg) -- Japanese stocks rose, reversing yesterday’s decline, after the nation’s machinery orders beat estimates and the European Central Bank endorsed a plan to guarantee deposits, boosting demand for risk assets. Hitachi Construction Machinery Co. advanced 0.8 percent, leading machinery manufacturers higher. Mizuho Financial Group Inc. (8411) paced gains among banks. Konica Minolta Holdings Inc. (4902), a maker of photo films that gets 28 percent of its sales in Europe, rose 1.7 percent after being raised to “outperform” by Credit Suisse Group AG. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average (NKY) rose 0.5 percent to 8,580.60 as of 9:15 a.m. in Tokyo after falling 1 percent yesterday. About four stocks advanced for each that lost. The broader Topix Index added 0.3 percent to 726.29.

U.S. Stocks Gain Amid Speculation of More Fed Stimulus (Source: Bloomberg)
U.S. stocks advanced, rebounding from yesterday’s decline, amid speculation the Federal Reserve will take steps to stimulate the economy and after the European Central Bank endorsed a plan to guarantee bank deposits. All 10 groups in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose as commodity, financial and industrial shares had the biggest gains. Boeing Co. (BA) jumped 3.5 percent as Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. raised its recommendation. Textron Inc. (TXT) rallied 4 percent as Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. agreed to buy planes from the company. First Solar Inc. surged 21 percent after delaying the close of a German plant to meet European demand. The S&P 500 advanced 1.2 percent to 1,324.18 at 4 p.m. New York time, after briefly erasing gains following Fitch Ratings’ downgrade of 18 Spanish banks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 162.57 points, or 1.3 percent, to 12,573.80. Trading volume for exchange-listed stocks in the U.S. was about 6.2 billion shares, 8.6 percent below the three-month average. “It has been a bit schizophrenic,” said Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist for Philadelphia-based Janney Montgomery Scott LLC, which manages about $54 billion. “What’s taking place in the Spanish bond market is troubling. Yet pessimism is so high that the prospect of any relief would be enough to jump-start a rally in equities. It seems investors are desperate for continued liquidity injections.” Stocks rose as Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans said he would support measures to generate faster job growth. The policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee meets next week. Equities also gained as the ECB backed a European Commission proposal to guarantee deposits.

German Stocks Resume Advance; EON, Siemens Lead Gains (Source: Bloomberg)
German stocks advanced to their highest level in nearly two weeks as speculation that the Federal Reserve will opt for more stimulus outweighed Fitch Ratings’ decision to downgrade 18 Spanish lenders. EON, the country’s biggest utility, rose 2 percent after UBS AG raised its recommendation on the stock. Bayer AG climbed 1.5 percent. Siemens AG rose 1.1 percent. Deutsche Bank AG and Commerzbank AG, the country’s biggest lenders, fell at least 1 percent. The DAX Index (DAX) rose 0.3 percent to 6,161.24 at the close in Frankfurt, after swinging between gains of as much as 1.1 percent and a decline of 0.9 percent. The gauge has fallen 14 percent from its high on March 16 amid growing concern that Greece will have to exit the euro currency. The broader HDAX Index rose 0.2 percent.
“The negative impact of contagion risk is increasing, with Spain not out of the woods after the 100 billion-euro bailout, if deep reforms are not undertaken,” said Robert Halver, head of capital markets research at Baader Bank AG. “Italy is the next candidate for financial support.” The Federal Open Market Committee holds its next policy meeting on June 20. Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans said he would support a variety of measures to generate faster job growth.

European Stocks Rise for First Time in Three Days (Source: Bloomberg)
European stocks rose for the first time in three days on speculation that the Federal Reserve will opt for more stimulus, outweighing a surge in Spanish borrowing costs to a euro-era record. TomTom NV (TOM2) rallied 16 percent after Apple Inc. (AAPL) agreed to use its digital maps. Lafarge (LG) SA rose more than 2 percent after announcing plans to increase earnings by 54 percent by 2015. Lagardere SCA (MMB) retreated 2.4 percent after the company lowered its advertising-revenue target. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index (SXXP) gained 0.6 percent to 243.44 at the close in London, after earlier sliding as much as 0.4 percent. The index yesterday erased gains in the final hour of trading yesterday as optimism faded that the 100 billion euro bank bailout for Spain would contain the debt crisis. The gauge has retreated 11 percent from its high this year on March 16.
“There is hope,” said Jerome Forneris, who helps manage $8.5 billion at Banque Martin Maurel in Marseille. “People will say: in nine days, the Fed will do what it can to support the economy. It’s a very important factor of support for U.S. and European stocks. It wouldn’t surprise me to see a strong announcement from the Fed to boost the U.S. economy.”

Emerging Stocks Fall on Europe Concern, Ratings Downgrade (Source: Bloomberg)
Emerging-market stocks fell, dragging down the benchmark index from a two-week high, as concern about Europe’s debt crisis and a downgrade of Spanish lenders by Fitch Ratings crimped demand for riskier assets. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index (MXEF) fell 0.2 percent to 913.00 at the close in New York, after yesterday closing at the highest level since May 29. Information technology stocks led declines on the index as Samsung Electronics Co. (005930), which got 16 percent of its first-quarter revenue from Europe, fell from the highest in almost a month. Brazilian equities rallied on speculation of further stimulus from the Federal Reserve. Spain’s benchmark 10-year sovereign-debt climbed to a euro- era record as optimism faded that the 100 billion euro ($124.8 billion) bank bailout for Spain would contain the debt crisis. Fitch Ratings said euro-area countries face lower ratings because policy makers are failing to demonstrate they can bring the debt crisis under control.
“The European debt crisis is the biggest risk to the stock market now and will cut investors’ risk appetite,” said Wang Weijun, a strategist at Zheshang Securities Co. in Shanghai. “It looks like the problem is spreading to bigger countries such as Spain and Italy, which is the last thing investors want to see.”

Yen, Dollar Remain Lower as Asian Stocks Snap Decline (Source: Bloomberg)
The yen and dollar remained lower following declines yesterday against most of their major peers as Asian stocks snapped a loss, damping demand for the currencies as havens. The euro maintained a two-day slide versus the U.K. pound before Italy sells debt this week and Greece holds general elections on June 17 amid concern Europe’s fiscal crisis is spreading. The New Zealand dollar touched a one-month high before the Reserve Bank holds a policy meeting tomorrow. “Sentiment in the equity market looks to be dictating a direction for currencies ahead of the Greek elections,” said Junichi Ishikawa, an analyst in Tokyo at IG Markets Securities Ltd. “Firmer stocks are likely to lead to some selling in the currencies such as the yen and dollar.”
The yen slid 0.1 percent to 99.54 per euro as of 9:33 a.m. in Tokyo from the close in New York yesterday. The dollar was unchanged at $1.2503 per euro after falling 0.2 percent yesterday. The 17-nation euro bought 80.33 U.K. pence from 80.31 after having lost 0.7 percent in the prior two days. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index of shares rose 0.2 percent after falling 0.6 percent yesterday. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index climbed 1.2 percent in New York yesterday.

Aussie, Kiwi Rebound on Speculation Losses Were Overdone (Source: Bloomberg)
The Australian and New Zealand dollars remained higher, after gaining at least 1 percent yesterday, on prospects Asian stocks will extend a global rally and sustain demand for riskier assets. The so-called kiwi traded 0.2 percent from a one-month high against its Australian counterpart before a Reserve Bank of New Zealand meeting tomorrow where policy makers are expected to leave rates unchanged. Demand was limited for the South Pacific nations’ currencies ahead of a June 17 election in Greece, where debt woes have risked a breakup of the euro zone and shaken global investor confidence. “When there is a bit of risk appetite, you don’t need much for strength to come back” in the Aussie and kiwi, said Greg Gibbs, a senior currency strategist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc in Sydney. “While you want to have some havens, you also want some exposure to inflation hedges.”
The Australian dollar traded at 99.53 U.S. cents as of 9:36 a.m. in Sydney from 99.59 yesterday, when it jumped 1 percent. The Aussie on June 11 touched $1.0009, the highest since May 15. It was little changed at 79.25 yen after advancing 1.1 percent yesterday.

FOREX-Euro seen vulnerable as Greek elections loom
LONDON, June 12 (Reuters) - The euro steadied against the dollar on Tuesday as selling pressure driven by concerns over Spain's bank bailout eased, but the common currency still looked vulnerable as wary investors awaited the outcome of Sunday's Greek election.
"Every time we get a piece of good news the market sells into it and looks for some bad news again," said Daragh Maher, currency strategist at HSBC.

Fed’s Evans Says He Would Support Various Stimulus Plans (Source: Bloomberg)
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans said he would support a variety of measures to generate faster job growth, underscoring his preference for more stimulus. “I’ve been in favor of pretty much any accommodative policy I’ve heard about,” Evans said in an interview on Bloomberg Television’s “In the Loop” with Betty Liu that was aired today. “Extending the Twist would be useful,” he said, referring to a plan expiring this month that lengthens the average duration of bonds in the Fed’s portfolio. “More asset purchases would be useful. More mortgage-backed securities purchases would be good.” The policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee is meeting next week as slowing job growth at home and a deepening crisis in Europe weigh on the outlook. Evans, who doesn’t vote on the FOMC this year, has been one of the most vocal proponents of additional easing at the Fed.
“I would prefer that we worked harder to clarify our forward guidance,” Evans said in the interview recorded yesterday in Chicago, reiterating his call for the central bank to commit to low interest rates until the unemployment rate falls below 7 percent or inflation breaches 3 percent. The FOMC last met April 24-25, when it said it expected to keep its benchmark rate near zero through at least late 2014 to reduce an “elevated” level of joblessness. Fed officials will also be releasing their revised forecasts for joblessness, growth and inflation on June 20.

U.S. Growth Depends on Fiscal Clarity, Silvia Tells Keene (Source: Bloomberg)
The U.S. economy needs more clarity from lawmakers about taxes and spending to reverse flagging growth, not more government stimulus, said John Silvia, chief economist at Wells Fargo Securities LLC. The recovery in the world’s largest economy is at risk because consumers and businesses don’t know how lawmakers will adjust federal spending and taxation in order to pass a budget this year, Silvia said in a radio interview today on “Bloomberg Surveillance” with Tom Keene and Ken Prewitt. “We just need some clarity, we need Congress and the president to get together and say ‘listen this is what we’re going to do’” about the payroll tax cut, Bush tax cuts, estate taxes and discretionary spending, Silvia said. “You don’t need another stimulus. We just need people getting together and saying ‘here are the rules and here’s what 2013 is going to look like in terms of taxes and spending.’”
The Charlotte, North Carolina-based economist said he expects growth of 1.5 percent to 2 percent in the second half of this year, while the unemployment rate will probably end 2012 at around 8 percent to 8.2 percent. Wells Fargo & Co.’s mortgage unit is the largest in the U.S.

Fed Says U.S. Wealth Fell 38.8% in 2007-2010 on Housing (Source: Bloomberg)
The financial crisis wiped out 18 years of gains for the median U.S. household net worth, with a 38.8 percent plunge from 2007 to 2010 that was led by the collapse in home prices, a Federal Reserve study showed. Median net worth declined to $77,300 in 2010, the lowest since 1992, from $126,400 in 2007, the Fed said in its Survey of Consumer Finances. Mean net worth fell 14.7 percent to a nine- year low of $498,800 from $584,600, the central bank said yesterday in Washington. Almost every demographic group experienced losses, which may hurt retirement prospects for middle-income families, Fed economists said in the report. “The impact has been a massive destruction of wealth all across the board,” said Lance Roberts, who oversees $500 million as chief executive officer of Streettalk Advisors LLC in Houston. “What you see is an economy that’s really very, very stressed for the bottom 60 to 70 percent of the population that’s struggling just to make ends meet.”

Blankfein Says U.S. Economy in ‘Tough Position’ Next Few Months (Source: Bloomberg)
The U.S. economy will continue to struggle for the next few months as some business owners wait for the national election before making investments, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Chief Executive Officer Lloyd Blankfein said. “I think we’re in a tough position for the next three or four or five months,” Blankfein said today in an interview on MSNBC. “There’s a lot of uncertainty.”Business owners aren’t sure what the results of the U.S. election will be or how it will affect their taxes, he said. A common view is that “it’s going to be very consequential so I think I’ll wait -- I think there’s a lot of that going on,” Blankfein said.

Prices of U.S. Goods Imports Decrease by Most in Two Years (Source: Bloomberg)
Prices of goods imported into the U.S. fell in May by the most in almost two years, reflecting lower costs for fuel and food. The 1 percent decrease in the import-price index, the biggest since June 2010, follows an unchanged reading in April, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. The drop matched the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey. Prices excluding fuel fell 0.1 percent. Slowing economies overseas may reduce demand for raw materials, holding prices in check while energy costs retreat. A “subdued” inflation outlook gives Federal Reserve officials more room to ease monetary policy to spur U.S. economic growth. “Price pressures are beginning to ebb,” said Jacob Oubina, a senior U.S. economist at RBC Capital Markets LLC in New York, who correctly forecast the drop in prices. “Slower global growth is influencing a lot of what we’re seeing on the price front. From the Fed’s perspective, that box of disinflationary conditions has already been checked off.”
Stock-index futures held earlier gains after the report on speculation the Fed will take steps to revive growth. The contract on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index maturing in September rose 0.4 percent to 1,304.8 at 8:37 a.m. in New York. Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans said in a Bloomberg Television interview airing today that he would support a variety of measures to boost growth, underscoring his preference for more stimulus.

Angry Bagmaker Shows China Slowdown Worst in Wenzhou (Source: Bloomberg)
Jiang Xiangsong has 18 days to pay a 2 million yuan ($314,000) bank debt or his suitcase company in eastern China will go bankrupt. He’s close to tears as he realizes his last hope, a government-backed office, won’t help. “This is totally useless: If I had any collateral, why the hell would I come here?” he yells at an official in Wenzhou’s state-run loan service, set up to help small businesses after rising bankruptcies and suicides prompted Premier Wen Jiabao to visit in October and pledge support. Wenzhou’s more than 400,000 businesses make everything from shoes in dusty side streets to synthetic leather in dilapidated factories, much of it financed by unregulated lenders that spread during China’s record 2009-10 credit boom. The decline of so-called shadow banking in the city, triggered by Wen’s move to rein in a national property bubble, has left Wenzhou bearing the brunt of the country’s economic slowdown.
China’s plans for a more targeted stimulus than the 4 trillion yuan package unveiled in 2008 ($586 billion at the time) mean Wenzhou may see little reprieve. Wen’s administration in March picked the city, five hours by train south of Shanghai, for a trial program designed to boost capital for private companies, an effort that’s failed to quell locals’ gloom.

IMF Says Yen Is Overvalued and BOJ Should Add Stimulus: Economy (Source: Bloomberg)
The International Monetary Fund said Japan’s currency is overvalued and the central bank should consider further monetary stimulus, including longer-dated government bonds and private securities. “The exchange rate has appreciated over the past year partly because of safe-haven capital inflows, and our analysis suggests that the yen is moderately overvalued from a medium- term perspective,” the IMF said in a report on Japan’s economy released today. Intervention can be used to counter volatile currency movements, David Lipton, the IMF’s first deputy managing director, told reporters in Tokyo. Investor concern about Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis has fueled a 5 percent gain in the yen against the dollar since mid- March, threatening the profits of the nation’s exporters. The Bank of Japan could increase its asset purchases to help the nation overcome more than a decade of deflation, the Washington- based fund said.
“The asset-purchase program could be expanded substantially beyond current plans to increase the likelihood of achieving the 1 percent inflation goal by end 2014,” the IMF said, referring to the BOJ’s price target. “Given the importance of expectations in the current low-interest rate environment, an upfront announcement of such easing could also raise inflation expectations.”

Japan Picks Stimulus Advocates for BOJ Amid Calls for Action (Source: Bloomberg)
Japan’s government nominated two economists to the central bank’s board who previously signaled support for stimulus, underscoring forecasts for policy makers to expand asset purchases in coming months. Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda’s administration yesterday tapped Takahide Kiuchi of Nomura Securities Co. and Takehiro Sato of Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., pending confirmation by the Diet. The picks broke with a practice of choosing candidates from similar backgrounds to the board members they replace; the retired members had business backgrounds. The nominees would join a central bank that’s boosted its asset fund by 20 trillion yen ($252 billion) this year yet been faulted by lawmakers for failing to do enough to end deflation and stoke growth. Sato said in an interview last month the BOJ’s inflation forecast for next year was “wishful thinking,” and Kiuchi said the bank may need to cut growth and price forecasts.
“Both nominees have indicated that the BOJ has to take more actions,” said Chotaro Morita, chief strategist for fixed income at Barclays Capital Japan Ltd. “Whether they join or not, the BOJ may have to do more soon as uncertainties remain high in the global economy especially in Europe.” Parliament will probably vote on the appointments around June 21, opposition lawmaker Yousuke Tsuruho, who sits on a joint committee that received the nominations, told reporters yesterday. The five-year terms of former board members Seiji Nakamura and Hidetoshi Kamezaki, who had been executives in the shipping and trading-company industries, concluded April 4.

India Factory Output Missing Estimates Adds to Rate-Cut Case (Source: Bloomberg)
Indian industrial production rose less than estimated in April, adding to the case for an interest-rate cut to bolster a weakening economy. Production at factories, utilities and mines increased 0.1 percent from a year earlier, after a revised 3.2 percent drop in March, the Central Statistical Office said in a statement in New Delhi today. The median of 37 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey was for a 1.7 percent climb. The Reserve Bank of India announces its rate decision on June 18, with pressure building on Governor Duvvuri Subbarao to lower borrowing costs for the second time in 2012 even as inflation exceeds 7 percent. Asia’s third-largest economy grew at the slowest pace in almost a decade last quarter, hurt by a stumbling global recovery and political gridlock that has deterred investment.
“It’s a very anemic number and there are not too many reasons to be optimistic about a quick rebound any time soon,” said Anubhuti Sahay, a Mumbai-based economist at Standard Chartered Plc. The central bank is facing a “difficult situation” and will probably reduce its repurchase rate to 7.75 percent from 8 percent next week.

Bundesbank’s Dombret Says ECB Has Done its Job to Solve Crisis (Source: Bloomberg)
Bundesbank board member Andreas Dombret said the European Central Bank has done its job to buy time for governments to fix weaknesses in the euro’s foundations. “To those who ask what else the Eurosystem can do, I say that we have done our part, now it’s up to the political leaders to deliver on the fiscal and structural policy side and decide on governance issues,” Dombret said in an interview in London yesterday. “This is why it can’t be a short-term fix.” The ECB has resisted pressure to step up its crisis response at a time when the euro region’s debt turmoil is forcing Spain to become its fourth member to seek a bailout. ECB President Mario Draghi indicated last week that neither interest-rate cuts nor additional longer-term refinancing operations would be appropriate measures for now.
The ECB “acted decisively” when it lowered interest rates to a record low of 1 percent, flooded banks with more than 1 trillion euros ($1.2 trillion) of cheap cash, and bought sovereign and covered bonds to calm down markets, Dombret said. “All of these measures contributed to stabilize the euro area and buy time to solve the underlying problems,” he said.

U.K. Manufacturing Output Declined More Than Forecast (Source: Bloomberg)
U.K. manufacturing fell more than economists forecast in April, pointing to continued weakness in the economy at the start of the second quarter. Factory output dropped 0.7 percent from March, led by pharmaceuticals, aircraft maintenance and food and drink production, the Office for National Statistics said today in London. The median forecast of 30 economists in a Bloomberg News survey was for a decline of 0.1 percent. Overall industrial output was unchanged on the month, weaker than the 0.1 percent increase forecast by economists. A report earlier this month showed manufacturing shrank the most in three years in May as government budget cuts and the euro-area debt crisis hampered growth. While the Bank of England left its bond-purchase target unchanged this month, policy maker Adam Posen said yesterday he was “too optimistic” when he abandoned a push for more stimulus in April.
“The underlying picture is very worrying,” said Alan Clarke, an economist at Scotiabank in London. “We’re starting to see tangible spillover effects from the euro-zone crisis. Risk aversion is stopping investors from investing, companies from hiring and consumers from spending.”

How Germans Botched the Spanish Bank Bailout (Source: Bloomberg)
Europe’s latest initiative to subdue its financial crisis fell apart in less than a day. The instant response to the plan for supporting Spanish banks had been euphoric. Even as bond markets pushed the cost of Spanish public borrowing even higher, in effect declaring the country insolvent, politicians were still applauding themselves. European Union leaders thought the plan would impress the markets because the sum committed to support Spain’s banks, 100 billion euros ($125 billion), looked adequate -- bigger, in fact, than investors expected. The EU thought it was getting ahead of events for once. It wasn’t. Mistakes in the deal’s design made the plan self-defeating. These errors are worth noting, because they lie at the core of the EU’s larger strategy.
The crucial thing is that the EU gave its support not directly to Spain’s banks but to Spain’s government, which would then lend it on. This had two fatal consequences. First, it added to Spain’s public debt, making its government less creditworthy. Second, depending on how the loans are structured -- a detail left vague as the rescue was announced -- Spain’s new debt to the EU might subordinate existing bondholders. Curbing the risk of a faster run on Spain’s banks was good, investors presumably calculated, but not good enough.

Spain’s Record Yields Show Italy Bailout Risk (Source: Bloomberg)
Spain’s benchmark borrowing costs climbed to a record yesterday, raising the specter of sovereign bailouts for the government in Madrid and then Italy that would stretch European Union finances to their limit. The yield on Spanish 10-year government debt rose for a third day, touching 6.83 percent, the highest since 1997, after Fitch Ratings predicted that Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy will miss budget-deficit targets he’s made the foundation of his economic policy. Italian 10-year yields rose to the highest in almost six months. The bond rout wiped out the effects of 1.1 trillion euros ($1.4 trillion) in official funding for euro-region banks that has held yields in check since December. Spain’s 10-year yield is close to the 7 percent level that forced Greece, Ireland and Portugal to seek bailouts. Italy, the second-biggest sovereign borrower in the euro area, may need to seek a rescue within months, said James Nixon, chief European economist at Societe Generale SA (GLE) in London.
“The crisis will inevitably roll on to the next domino, and that’s Italy,” Nixon said in a telephone interview. “The southern European economies are effectively in free-fall and market appetite for southern European debt is rapidly drying up. I can’t see anything to turn that dynamic around.”

20120613 0941 Global Commodities Related News.

More Questions than Answers (Source: CME)
By DTN/The Progressive Farmer - Tue 12 Jun 2012 14:40:00 CT
The latest round of USDA numbers provided more questions than answers. In the end, the corn and wheat markets had sustained sharp losses while soybeans closed to the plus side led by the old-crop July contract.

Wheat Market Recap Report (Source: CME)
July Wheat finished down 14 at 616 1/2, 23 1/4 off the high and 3 1/4 up from the low. December Wheat closed down 12 3/4 at 659. This was 3 up from the low and 20 1/4 off the high. July wheat closed 14 1/2 cents lower on the session and just a few cents up from the lows. Aggressive fund selling in corn and a lack of new demand news helped to keep sellers active and buyers at bay. Hard red winter cash basis levels were down slightly today as the Kansas crop is already 53% harvested as compared with 8% last year and 4% as the 20-year average. The USDA reports this morning were considered bullish for the wheat market. Production was a bit higher than expected but the lower beginning and ending stocks numbers for the 2012/13 season looks supportive. The USDA pegged winter wheat production at 1.684 billion bushels which was about 34 million above trade expectations and compares with 1.694 billion last month. All wheat production was pegged at 2.234 billion bushels which is 12 million above expectations and compares with 2.245 billion last month. The USDA pegged US ending stocks for the 2011/12 season at 728 million bushels which was 25-30 million below trade expectations and down from 768 million last month. For the 2012/13 season, ending stocks were pegged at 694 million bushels which is 35 million below trade expectations and compares with 735 million last month. This would be the lowest ending stocks since the 2008/09 season. World ending stocks for the 2011/12 season came in at 195.56 million tonnes as compared with 197.03 million last month. For the 2012/13 season, world ending stocks were pegged at 185.76 million tonnes from 188.13 million last month and this would be the lowest since the 2008/09 season. Outside market forces are positive but funds are active sellers and the sharp break in corn is helping to pull the market lower. July Oats closed down 2 at 293 1/4. This was 2 1/2 up from the low and 7 1/2 off the high.

Pro Farmer: After the Bell Wheat Recap (Source: CME)
Wheat futures settled 12 1/4 to 14 1/2 cents lower in Chicago, 10 1/2 to 13 1/4 cents lower in Kansas City and mostly 12 1/4 to 13 1/2 cents lower in Minneapolis. Futures ended on or near session lows. Losses were modestly trimmed in after-hours trade. USDA's winter wheat production figures came in higher than anticipated. In combination with spillover from corn and seasonal pressure, that overshadowed declines to USDA's domestic and global carryover forecasts.

Corn Market Recap for 6/12/2012 (Source: CME)
July Corn finished down 10 3/4 at 581 1/4, 17 3/4 off the high and 5 3/4 up from the low. December Corn closed down 15 1/4 at 518 3/4. This was 2 up from the low and 18 off the high. December corn closed 11 1/2 lower on the but up from the mid-session lows while July corn closed 8 cents lower on the day and up 8 1/2 cents from the lows hit right into the USDA release. Strong cash basis levels helped to support the market while fund traders were aggressive sellers. A bearish USDA report as compared with expectations sparked aggressive selling from fund traders to push the market lower. In addition, the extended forecast models show more rains coming to the US which may help ease stress on the crop into the key pollination period ahead. The USDA pegged ending stocks for the 2011/12 season at 851 million bushels which was about 25 million above expectations and unchanged from last month. For the 2012/13 season, ending stocks came in at 1.881 billion bushels, unchanged from last month and up from expectations around 1.74 billion. There were no changes for demand numbers, and the USDA stuck with a record high yield estimate of 166 bushels per acre. This surprised traders as the weekly update showed that just 66% of the crop is rated good/excellent compared to 72% last week and 69% last year. Last year yield was 147.2 bushels per acre and the 20 year trend yield is at 160.5. Ratings in Illinois and Indiana were down sharply. Illinois topsoil moisture was 78% short to very short and Missouri was 87% short to very short. Indiana is 74% short to very short and even Iowa was 66%. If we plug in a trend yield instead of the record yield, ending stocks come in at 1.387 billion bushels and stocks/usage is 10.1%. World ending stocks for the 2011/12 season came in at 129.19 million tonnes as compared with 127.56 million last month. New crop ending stocks were revised to 155.74 million tonnes from 152.34 million last month. China production was revised higher by 2 million tonnes to 195 million tonnes. July Rice finished up 0.045 at 14.1, equal to the high and 0.1 up from the low.

Global Wheat Stockpiles Forecast Lower as Drought Curbs Crops (Source: Bloomberg)
Global wheat stockpiles as of June 1, 2013, will be 1.3 percent lower than forecast a month ago as drought curbs production in countries including Russia and the U.S., the world’s biggest exporter, the government said. Inventories at the end of the marketing year will total 185.76 million metric tons, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said today in a report, down from 188.13 million tons forecast on May 10. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expected 185.06 million tons. Production will reach 672.06 million tons, compared with 677.56 million tons estimated last month, the USDA said. Daily harvest reports from parts of Kansas, the biggest U.S. producer of winter grain, show that “yields were worse than they thought,” Dan Manternach, a wheat economist at Doane Advisory Services in St. Louis, said in a telephone interview before the report was released. “We’ve had reports out of several Black Sea countries where they’ve lowered their own export-availability forecasts.”
Wheat has gained 4.9 percent on the Chicago Board of Trade since May 10, when the USDA forecast that global supplies at the end of May 2013 will be 4.5 percent smaller than a year earlier. Since then, little rain has fallen in parts of Kansas, Missouri, Illinois, Indiana and Ohio, where winter varieties are grown. Futures for July delivery yesterday closed at $6.305 a bushel, up less than 0.1 percent. Prices will average $7.80 in the third quarter, Societe Generale SA predicted in May.

Corn dips on euro zone crisis, USDA report eyed
SINGAPORE, June 12 (Reuters) - U.S. corn slid for a second straight day, while wheat edged lower with pressure from broad-based weakness in financial markets as a bailout of Spain's debt-stricken banks failed to convince investors.
"We did see in the weekly crop report reasonable deterioration in the corn crop conditions, which is pretty significant but all of that information will be overshadowed by tonight's USDA report," said Luke Mathews, commodities strategist at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

Kazakhstan ups record grain export f'cast to 14 mln T
ASTANA, June 12 (Reuters) - Kazakhstan expects to export up to 14 million tonnes of grain this marketing year, the agriculture ministry said on Tuesday, raising its earlier forecast from a record 13 million tonnes.
"Around 11 million tonnes of grain, including flour in grain equivalent, has so far been loaded for exports during this marketing year," the ministry said in a statement. Kazakhstan's preferred marketing year is September to September.
Morocco's s.wheat imports at 2.9 mln T before drought
RABAT, June 12 (Reuters) - Morocco closed the 2012 import season with 2.9 million tonnes in soft wheat and 1.74 million tonnes in maize, official data showed on Tuesday, as Rabat gears up for higher import needs after drought slashed this year's harvest.
State cereals authority ONICL also said imports of durum wheat and barley stood at 650,000 and 620,000 tonnes respectively in the 12 months to the end of May, when the harvest stood at close to 8.4 million tonnes.
Cheaper US, Indian grains curb Australian wheat sales in Asia
SINGAPORE, June 12 (Reuters) - Asian grain importers are turning to the United States for cheaper milling wheat supply and Indian corn for animal feed, threatening to slow Australian wheat exports that have been running at a near-record pace in recent months.
The region's biggest grain buyers led by Indonesia and  Japan are expected to book more U.S. wheat cargoes in the months ahead for milling, giving stiff competition to Australia, the world's second largest wheat exporter.
China wheat imports could double after crop damage - analysts
BEIJING, June 12 (Reuters) - China, the world's top wheat consumer, is expected to more than double its imports of the grain this year as domestic crop production dwindles under the onslaught of bad weather and disease, analysts said.
China imported 1.25 million tonnes of wheat last year, and that figure will surge in 2012 as the country is forced replenish supplies, particularly of high-grade wheat, in the second half, they said.
Australia wheat stocks at all-time high for April
SYDNEY, June 12 (Reuters) - Australian wheat stocks at the end of April were at their highest level on record for the month, government data showed on Tuesday, after recent bumper harvests filled silos and despite exports increasing to key Asian markets such as China.
Wheat in bulk storage was 18.9 million tonnes at the end of April, up 9 percent on the same month last year although down 11 percent, or 2.3 million tonnes, from the end of March, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said.
Argentine farm strike slows flow of grain to port
BUENOS AIRES, June 11 (Reuters) - Grain trucks entering Argentina's main port of Rosario slowed to a trickle on Monday because of a five-day-old sales strike by farmers, but exports remained uninterrupted due to ample dockside reserves.
The sales strike, set to end at midnight on Tuesday (0300 GMT Wednesday), was called last week by growers angry about government agricultural policies and a recent tax increase in No. 1 soy- and corn-producing province Buenos Aires.
Analyst cuts Ukraine '12 grain crop forecast 1.7%
KIEV, June 11 (Reuters) - Analyst UkrAgroConsult on Monday cut its forecast for Ukraine's 2012 grain harvest to 45.5 million tonnes from the previous estimate of 46.3 million tonnes due to a smaller output of barley.
The consultancy said in a report the former Soviet republic could harvest 7.32 million tonnes of barley this year. In May, the consultancy predicted a barley harvest of 7.95 million tonnes in 2012.

ICE coffee dips to two-year low, cocoa edges up
LONDON, June 12 (Reuters) - Arabica coffee futures on ICE slid to a two-year low in early trade as bearish technicals, ample supplies and risk aversion linked to the euro zone debt crisis helped to keep the market on the defensive.
“Thin coffee stocks in Vietnam have been keeping prices high, making it difficult for exporters to secure beans for fresh deals, while foreign buyers have already switched to taking beans from Indonesia's peaking harvest," traders said on Tuesday.

Australia's QSL sees sugar exports rise 25 pct in 2012/13
BANGKOK, June 12 (Reuters) - Australia's biggest exporter of raw sugar, Queensland Sugar Ltd (QSL), expects exports to rise a quarter, to 3 million tonnes this year, Brent Casey, the company's general manager for sales and business development said on Tuesday.
Australia is the world's third-largest exporter of raw sugar, with Queensland Sugar accounting for most of the country's total foreign sales.
Macquarie cuts 2012/13 Brazil CS cane output estimate
BANGKOK, June 12 (Reuters) - Macquarie Bank cut its estimate for the 2012/13 cane output of Brazil's key centre-south sugar producing region to about 506 million tonnes, down 2.7 percent from a forecast in February because of erratic weather, a bank official said on Tuesday.
Weather problems in Brazil, the world's largest sugar producer, and an increase in demand in Asia, drove a rebound in New York futures from their weakest level since August 2010,  Carlos Murilo Barros de Mello, a managing director at Macquarie in Brazil, said.

Philippines sees marginal increase in 2012/13 sugar output
BANGKOK, June 12 (Reuters) - The Philippines, one of Asia's main exporters of sugar, could see a small increase in production of the sweetener in the crop year to August 2013 after incessant rains hit plantations, Regina Bautista-Martin, chief of the country's Sugar Regulatory Administration (SRA), said on Tuesday.
"There will be a marginal increase," Bautista-Martin told Reuters on the sidelines of a sugar conference in the Thai capital, adding that the output forecast for the crop year to August 2012 was unchanged, at 2.2 million tonnes.
Global sugar market in huge surplus, looks to Asia
BANGKOK, June 11 (Reuters) - The global sugar market may see supply vastly exceeding requirement in the next crop year, leaving producers at the mercy of seasonal demand from Asia and weather-related output disruptions, industry experts said on Monday.
Weak prices have spurred demand for the sweetener from consumers in Asia, especially China, while erratic weather in top producer Brazil could offer the market much-needed support.
Brazil sugar cane gets break before rain returns
BRASILIA, June 11 (Reuters) - Skies cleared over Brazil's center-southern cane belt on Monday and at the two main ports for sugar exports, forecasters and industry representatives said, enabling harvesting work and loading to progress again after unseasonably wet weather.
Fears that last week's torrential rains across the cane belt in the world's top sugar producer could restrict the flow of the sweetener to consumers, helped push New York sugar futures 6 percent higher last week and the July contract  gained a further 1.8 percent on Monday.

China's high oil imports are all about Iran
(Clyde Russell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)
LAUNCESTON, Australia, June 12 (Reuters) - The gain in China's crude oil imports in May to a record high is a reflection of increased stockpiling rather than a sign of rising demand and economic strength.
Imports surged 14.5 percent from April to 25.48 million tonnes, equivalent to about 6 million barrels a day, the first time daily imports have started with the number six.

On oil, Goldman sees reasons to be bullish
(John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)
LONDON, June 11 (Reuters) - The overdone selloff in commodity prices, especially crude oil, has created the potential for a strong rally once fundamentals reassert themselves and hedge funds re-enter the market, according to researchers at Goldman Sachs.
"We believe that the selloff in commodity prices is likely overdone and the price risks are shifting more to the upside," Goldman wrote in a note published on Monday ("Commodity Watch: Stepping back into the markets" June 11, 2012).

OIL-Oil down on global impact of eurozone crisis
LONDON, June 12 (Reuters) - Crude oil futures fell below $98 a barrel on Tuesday, extending losses due to fears that the euro zone debt crisis will worsen and hurt the global economy, threatening growth in oil demand.
"Europe is significantly affecting the growth outlook and, given China is already weak, further deterioration in the Eurozone crisis could tip the global economy into a recession," said Guy Wolf, macro strategist at Marex Spectron.

Oil Trades Near Two-Day High on Stimulus Outlook, OPEC (Source: Bloomberg)
Oil traded near the highest close in two days after OPEC cut production last month and the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President said he would support stimulus measures in the U.S., the world’s biggest crude consumer. Futures were little changed after climbing for the first day in four yesterday. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which meets in Vienna tomorrow, trimmed output in May for the first time in eight months, it said in a report. The Fed’s Charles Evans would support measures to generate faster job growth, he said in a Bloomberg Television interview. Oil for July delivery was at $83.21 a barrel, down 11 cents, in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 9:40 a.m. Sydney time. The contract rose 0.8 percent yesterday to $83.32, the highest close since June 8. Prices are down 16 percent this year.
Brent oil for July settlement slipped 86 cents, or 0.9 percent, to $97.14 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange yesterday. The European benchmark contract’s premium to West Texas Intermediate closed at $13.82. OPEC, responsible for 40 percent of global crude supplies, pumped 31.58 million barrels a day last month, the group’s secretariat said in its Monthly Oil Market Report yesterday. That’s down from 31.64 million barrels a day in April and exceeds its quota of 30 million agreed on in December. U.S. crude stockpiles climbed 1.6 million barrels last week, the American Petroleum Institute said. An Energy Department report today may show supplies slipped 1.5 million barrels, according to the median estimate of 12 analysts in a Bloomberg News survey.

No need for OPEC ceiling change-Iran OPEC governor
VIENNA, June 12 (Reuters) - OPEC should not raise its oil output ceiling when it meets on Thursday, Iran's OPEC governor told Reuters on Tuesday.
"The first and most important issue is we agree to stick to the 30 million (barrels per day)," Mohammad Ali Khatibi said. "If this ceiling needs to be changed, we need strong justification."

Sinopec turns down cut-price Iran crude - source
BEIJING, June 12 (Reuters) - Chinese refiner Sinopec  has turned down offers of bargain Iranian crude and will cut imports by up to a fifth this year, a senior Chinese oil executive said, insisting ties with the United States are more important than cut-price oil as the West squeezes Tehran over its controversial nuclear programme.
And, with just 20 days to go until European Union sanctions against Iran's oil trade - effectively cutting off tanker insurance - major Asian buyers of Iranian crude were still scrambling on Tuesday for a solution to keep the oil flowing.

China oil imports to top May record on low prices, stockpiling
BEIJING, June 12 (Reuters) - China's oil imports will likely surge past last month's record in either June or July as falling prices and expanding storage capacity encourage the world's second-largest buyer to boost its emergency stockpiles.
Higher overseas purchases by China would be a bright spot in an otherwise grim outlook for oil demand amid uncertainty about  the strength of the Chinese economy and the euro zone debt crisis, which pushed oil prices down in May by the most in more than three years.  

Gold Futures Decline 0.2%; Silver Futures Trade Little Changed (Source: Bloomberg)
Gold for August delivery in New York declined 0.2 percent to $1,611.20 an ounce at 8:11 a.m. in Melbourne, while immediate-delivery bullion was little changed at $1,610.22. Gold gained for the third straight session yesterday on speculation that U.S. policy makers will announce additional stimulus measures to boost growth. Silver for July delivery was little changed at $28.925 an ounce.

Gold Climbs for Third Straight Session on Stimulus Bets (Source: Bloomberg)
Gold gained for the third straight session in New York on speculation that policy makers will announce additional stimulus measures to boost growth, increasing demand for bullion as a hedge against inflation. Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans said he would support a variety of measures to generate faster job growth, underscoring his preference for more action. Spain has a “fair chance” to demonstrate its capacity to solve its banking woes after indicating it will require a bailout, Finland’s Prime Minister Jyrki Katainen said. “The market is expecting more stimulus, and that is supportive of gold,” Phil Streible, a senior commodity broker at R.J. O’Brien & Associates in Chicago, said in a telephone interview. Gold futures for August delivery advanced 1.1 percent to settle at $1,613.80 an ounce at 1:57 p.m. on the Comex in New York. Prices gained 0.6 percent in the previous two sessions.
Bullion surged 70 percent from the end of December 2008 to June 2011 as the Fed kept borrowing costs at a record low and bought $2.3 trillion of debt in two rounds of so-called quantitative easing. Silver futures for July delivery jumped 1.2 percent to $28.949 an ounce in New York, gaining for the second straight day.

20120613 0940 Soy Oil & Palm Oil Related News.

Soybean Complex Market Recap (Source: CME)
July Soybeans finished up 7 at 1431 3/4, 17 1/2 off the high and 15 1/2 up from the low. November Soybeans closed up 1/2 at 1331 3/4. This was 8 3/4 up from the low and 18 1/4 off the high. July Soymeal closed up 3.1 at 431.1. This was 5.0 up from the low and 8.8 off the high. July Soybean Oil finished down 0.1 at 49.64, 0.51 off the high and 0.26 up from the low. July soybeans took out yesterday's highs and yesterday's lows and closed moderately higher on the session. November closed slightly higher even though there appears to be more rain and less heat in the extended forecast models. July pushed to the highest level since May 17th after the USDA release. Traders see rain in the next few weeks mostly for the northern and western Midwest while areas in the South and East could remain drier than normal. However, some rain this week was expected to ease crop conditions. The USDA report news this morning was considered supportive for soybeans. The USDA pegged US soybean ending stocks for the 2011/12 season at just 175 million bushels, which was well below trade expectations near 195 million and compares with 210 million last month. For the 2012/13 season, ending stocks are projected at just 140 million bushels which is below expectations and compares with 145 million bushels last month. This is a 4.3% stocks to usage, and the USDA had to push down exports by 20 million and crush by 10 million from last month's estimates to make the number fit. This would be the lowest stocks/usage number since the 1965/66 season. In the weekly crop update, soybeans rated good to excellent came in at 60% compared to 65% last week and 67% last year. The 10 year average for this time of year is 66%. The USDA left yield unchanged for this report at 43.9 bushels per acre as compared with 41.5 last year. World ending stocks for the 2011/12 season came in at 53.36 million tonnes compared with 53.24 million tonnes last month and down from 70.1 million last year. China demand was revised a bit higher and global meal exports pushed up by 2 million tonnes. Brazil's 2011/12 production came in at 65.5 million from 65 million last month, and Argentina's was revised down to 41.5 million from 42.5 million last month.

Pro Farmer: After the Bell Soybean Recap (Source: CME)
Soybean futures saw two-sided trade today and ended with gains of 10 1/4 cents in July beans, while deferred months were mostly 2 1/4 to 6 cents higher. USDA trimmed more than expected from its carryover forecasts for both 2011-12 and 2012-13 to keep the tight supply picture in focus.

Palm oil edges down on renewed Europe fears
SINGAPORE, June 12 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures slipped, as renewed fears over the euro zone debt crisis weighed on investor sentiment and the broader financial markets, although losses were limited by lower palm oil stocks.
"A key factor contributing to the price downtrend is the renewed eurozone debt crisis and uncertain global economic outlook, which have dampened sentiments as well as raising the prospect of lower demand for commodities, including vegetable oils," said Malaysia's Affin Investment Bank in a research note.

India's May refined palm oil imports seen up
NEW DELHI, June 11 (Reuters) - India ramped up imports of refined palm oil in May from April as a threat of higher taxes receded and prices slipped, with an added boost coming from demand ahead of the Ramadan festival and feasting, traders surveyed by Reuters said.
Traders' forecasts for refined palm oil imports in May ranged between 125,000 and 180,000 tonnes, with the average at 144,500 tonnes, up 51.2 percent from April.

Boeing, PetroChina aim for second biofuel flight test
BEIJING, June 12 (Reuters) - Boeing Co. , in cooperation with Air China  and PetroChina , will press ahead with a second test flight that will be partly powered by plant oil, company executives said this week.
The test, scheduled for the third quarter of this year, is likely to involve a trans-Pacific trip, far longer than the one-hour test flight that was conducted in China last October, said Stephen Emmert, Boeing's regional director of the biofuel strategy team for China and North America.