Tuesday, May 3, 2011

20110503 1824 FCPO EOD Daily Chart Study.

FCPO closed : 3271, changed : +1 point, volume : lower.
Bollinger band reading : side way range bound little downside biased.
MACD Histrogram : weakening, buyer leaving.
Support : 3270, 3250, 3200, 3150 level.
Resistance : 3300, 3350, 3420, 3450 level.
Comment :
Quiet FCPO closed 1 tick higher with almost half of the last Friday volume traded despite export data released showing increased and improved demand while soy oil last Friday closed recovered substantially higher, about unchanged yesterday and currently easing lower surrendering some of last Friday big gains.
Daily chart formed a down bar candle with upper shadow positioned nearer to middle Bollinger band level after gap up, traded range bound before retreating lower to closed at the low of the day. 
Chart reading still suggesting a side way range bound little downside biased market development testing support and resistance level.
When to buy : buy at support or weakness with quick cut loss and profit target.
When to sell : sell at resistant or strength with quick cut loss and profit target.

20110503 1754 FKLI EOD Daily Chart Study.

FKLI closed : 1526.5 changed : -7.5 points(continuous chart -5.5 points), volume : higher.
Bollinger band reading : side way range bound.
MACD Histrogram : resume lower, both buyer and seller testing market.
Support : 1515, 1500, 1485, 1470 level.
Resistance : 1530, 1540, 1550, 1565 level.
Comment :
FKLI closed recorded loss with little improved volume transacted doing almost 5 points discount compare to cash market that recorded small loss while regional markets traded mostly lower after resume trading from Labour day holiday.
News wise, Bloomberg reported that more than estimated India's central bank interest rate hike announcement spurring concern that higher borrowing cost globally may slow growth while the dead of Osama Bin Laden could possibly increase the risk of retaliation by al-Qaeda to the U.S and its allies.
On the other hand U.S. will start taking “extraordinary” steps to extend the federal government’s authority to borrow funds as it nears the national debt ceiling also raising worry on the U.S. economy.
Daily chart formed a down doji bar candle closed below middle Bollinger band level after market opened lower, tested previous closing price before slide lower and closed recovered slightly near the low of the day.
Chart reading remained calling for a side way range bound market development testing support and resistance level.
When to buy : buy at support or weakness with quick cut loss and profit target.
When to sell : sell at resistant or strength with quick cut loss and profit target.

20110503 1553 Global Market & Commodities Related News.

Asia stocks fall, commodities drag on miners
SINGAPORE, May 3 (Reuters) - Asian shares fell on Tuesday, led by falls in Australian stocks on declining commodities prices and a firm local currency ahead of a central bank interest rate decision.
"Our number one headwind for equities right now is the Aussie dollar," said IG Markets institutional dealer Chris Weston. 

Brent slips below $125 on dollar; eyes bin Laden effect
SINGAPORE, May 3 (Reuters) - Brent crude fell below $125 a barrel on Tuesday in volatile trade as the dollar rebounded from a three-year low and traders weighed the impact of al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden's death on the market.
"The potential of violence from retaliation has more upside than downside risks, and would support the market," said Serene Lim, commodities analyst with ANZ Bank in Singapore.

U.S. corn advances on slow progress of U.S. planting
SYDNEY, May 3 (Reuters) - U.S. corn futures jumped more than 0.5 percent on Tuesday, boosted by a government report released after the market close on Monday that showed slower-than-expected planting of the U.S. crop.
Chicago Board of Trade corn for July delivery , the bellwether contract, rose 0.54 percent to $7.38-1/2 per bushel in early Asian trade after falling 3 percent on Monday on expectations that farmers will pick up the pace of planting.

Argentine 2011/12 wheat crop seen bigger due prices
BUENOS AIRES, May 2 (Reuters) - High global prices could spur Argentine farmers to plant more wheat when 2011/12 plantings kick off this month, and output could jump 20 percent, industry analysts and farmers said on Monday.
A healthy 2010/11 harvest has helped Argentine wheat exports recover after several harsh droughts and persistent government intervention that some farmers say has deterred them from planting the cereal in recent years.

US corn planting 13 pct complete, off average pace
CHICAGO, May 2 (Reuters) - Wet weather brought fieldwork to a standstill in the top corn-producing states east of the Mississippi River last week, pushing overall plantings below trader estimates and the average pace of seedings, U.S. Agriculture Department data showed late on Monday.
USDA put corn plantings at 13 percent complete as of Sunday, off last year's record pace of 66 percent complete and the five-year average of 40 percent.

Brazil soy crop raised to record 72.6 mln T-Celeres
SAO PAULO, May 2 (Reuters) - Brazil's 2010/11 soybean crop forecast was raised to a record 72.55 million tonnes, up from 70.56 million tonnes seen in early April, grains analysts Celeres said on Monday.
In its tenth report on the current crop, Celeres said average Brazil yields should reach 3.019 tonnes per hectare, up from 2.936 tonnes per hectare seen in April.

Sulawesi April cocoa exports slide, 2011 output seen down
JAKARTA, May 2 (Reuters) - Indonesia's cocoa bean exports from the key-producing island of Sulawesi slumped 76 percent in April from a year ago to 1,570 tonnes, and cocoa output in the region is expected to fall up to 10 percent this year, an association official said on Monday.
The fall in exports last month was due to a rise in the cocoa bean export tax to 15 percent, though exports may pick up again in May as the world's third largest cocoa producer has cut the tax for shipments this month to 10 percent

Australia wheat exports strong, high currency yet to impact
SYDNEY, May 2 (Reuters) - Wheat stocks held by bulk handlers in Australia fell 8 percent for the second straight month in March indicating strong exports despite the local dollar rising above US$1 during the month, making exports less competitive.
Australia's bulk storage of wheat grain at the end of March was estimated at 18.7 million tonnes, a drop of around 1.6 million tonnes from February, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) said on Monday. Stocks also fell 8 percent in February from March.

LME copper falls on dollar; US econ data looms
SINGAPORE, May 3 (Reuters) - London copper inched down on Tuesday under the weight of a firmer dollar and economic uncertainty ahead of U.S. economic data this week, including key non-farm payroll numbers for April due on Friday.
"Everyone is waiting to see how uncertainties in the macro-economic situations of major economies will pan out," China Futures Co analyst Yang Jun said.

Gold steady, supported by inflation, rates concerns
SINGAPORE, May 3 (Reuters) - Gold prices held steady on Tuesday, as investors weighed the news of Osama bin Laden's death against other factors including the low interest rates in the United States and concerns on rising inflation.
"Over the last few weeks gold has become overbought," said Peter Fung, head of dealing at Wing Fung Precious Metals in Hong Kong, expecting the market to remain volatile in the near term.

20110503 1410 Global Market & Commodities Related News.

GLOBAL MARKETS: Asia stocks fall as bin Laden effect fades
SINGAPORE, May 3 (Reuters) - Asian shares dipped on Tuesday and the dollar struggled to pull away from a three-year low, as a bounce following the killing of Osama bin Laden by U.S. forces quickly faded and investors refocused their attention on the fragile global economy.
Oil, the asset often most sensitive to perceptions of geopolitical risk, eased, and gold steadied after dropping back from a record high.

OIL: Crude down as dollar edges up, eyes bin Laden fallout
SEOUL, May 3 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures fell half a percent in early Asian trade on Tuesday as the dollar edged up from a three-year low, but were still $2 above the Monday low hit after news of al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden's death.
Brent crude for June fell 38 cents to $124.74 versus a cents lower settlement at $125.12.

NATURAL GAS: Natgas ends up, June slips on profit-taking, temps
NEW YORK, May 2 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures mostly ended up slightly on Monday, but milder weather this week and overbought technicals prompted steady selling in the front contract, particularly after strong gains late last week.
"I think the storage report last week was bullish, and the nuke (outage) data is also providing support, but I think the upside is limited here," a West Coast trader said, adding below normal weather forecasts should translate into less heating and cooling demand.

COMMODITIES: Uncertainty up though bin Laden no game changer
NEW YORK, May 2 (Reuters) - Oil ended one of the most volatile sessions of 2011 easier on Monday following Osama bin Laden's death, while gold traded mixed, but investors said his demise had done little to cut the risk premium in commodities.
"I think the knee-jerk reaction would be to take some of the political risk premium out of oil," said Nic Johnson, who oversees a $27 billion commodities mutual fund at Californian assets manager PIMCO, which manages $1.2 trillion in total.

20110503 1209 Global Economic Related News.

Indonesia: Inflation slows, providing room to hold key rate
Indonesia’s inflation slowed for a third straight month in April as food prices declined during the harvest period, giving the central bank room to refrain from raising interest rates when policy makers meet 12 May. Consumer prices in Southeast Asia’s biggest economy rose 6.16% last month from a year earlier, after gaining 6.65% in March, the Central Bureau of Statistics said. That’s less than the 6.4% median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of 19 economists. (Bloomberg)

India: April manufacturing expands at fastest pace in five months. The Purchasing Managers' Index rose to 58 in April from 57.9 in March, HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics said. A number above 50 indicates expansion. Indias merchandise exports surged 44% YoY to a record USD 29b in March. (Source: Bloomberg)

South Korea: Inflation slows from fastest pace in 29 months
South Korea’s inflation slowed in April from the fastest pace in 29 months, a moderation that may fail to deter the central bank from raising interest rates next week. Consumer prices rose 4.2% from a year earlier, after a 4.7% gain in March, Statistics Korea said. That compared with a median estimate of 4.6% in a Bloomberg News survey of 13 economists. Prices were unchanged from March. President Lee Myung Bak declared “war” on inflation in January, urging policy makers to contain inflation at 3 percent to protect families on low incomes. Central bank officials will need to gauge the effect that a surging won may have on exports and growth when reviewing rates on 13 May after leaving them unchanged last month. (Bloomberg)

Singapore: Jobless rate fell to the lowest level in three years as employers expanded payrolls to meet demand for goods and services in an accelerating economy. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fell to 1.9% in the three months through March from 2.2% the previous quarter, the Ministry of Manpower said in a statement. The economy added an estimated 23,700 jobs last quarter, it said. (Source: Bloomberg)

Japan:Passes USD49bn earthquake reconstruction package
Japan’s parliament passed a JPY4trn (USD49bn) budget for rebuilding after the 11 Mar earthquake, the first in a series of relief packages. The Diet’s upper house unanimously approved the extra spending after the lower house passed the measure on 30 Apr. Prime Minister Naoto Kan has said several extra budgets may be needed to rebuild after the quake, tsunami and nuclear crisis, with government estimates putting the damage at as much as JPY25trn. Higher taxes may be needed to limit any increases in bond sales that would swell a debt burden already twice the size of the economy. (Bloomberg)

Japan: March wages fall, highlighting risks to economic recovery. Monthly pay including overtime and bonuses dropped 0.4% YoY to JPY 274,886 (USD 3,383), the Labor Ministry said in Tokyo. Overtime work hours fell 2% YoY to 10.1 hours, the data showed. (Source: Bloomberg)

India: Manufacturing expands at fastest pace in five months
India’s manufacturing grew at the fastest pace in five months and exports climbed to a record, increasing pressure on the central bank to raise interest rates for the ninth time since the start of 2010. The Purchasing Managers’ Index rose to 58 in April from 57.9 in March. A number above 50 indicates expansion. India’s merchandise exports surged 44% to a record USD29bn in March from a year earlier, the commerce ministry said in an e- mailed statement. (Bloomberg)

Australia: Manufacturing contracted in April on record currency
Australian manufacturing contracted in April for the seventh time in eight months as a record-high currency and consumer caution hurt textile and other producers, a private report showed. The manufacturing index was 48.4 in April from 47.9 a month earlier, the Australian Industry Group and PricewaterhouseCoopers said in a survey released in Canberra. A number below 50 indicates contraction. The nation’s factories are lagging behind the mining industry, which is expanding to meet Chinese demand for raw materials and pushing the job market near a level the government views as full employment. The Australian currency’s 19% gain against the US dollar in the past year has hurt export competitiveness. (Bloomberg)

EU: Europe manufacturing growth accelerates more than estimated
European manufacturing growth accelerated more than estimated in April, driven by higher output in Germany and France, suggesting the region’s economy is weathering surging energy costs. A gauge of manufacturing in the 17-nation euro area rose to 58 from 57.5 in March, London-based Markit Economics said. That’s above an initial estimate of 57.7 on 19 Apr. A reading above 50 indicates growth. European manufacturers, led by German companies such as Volkswagen AG, are boosting production and hiring more workers to meet increased export orders. With euro-area capacity utilization at the highest since 2008, oil prices up 23% this year and companies trying to pass on higher input costs, the risk is growing that inflation may accelerate and slow the recovery. (Bloomberg)

E.U: April inflation accelerated to the fastest pace in two and a half years. Inflation in the 17-nation euro region quickened to 2.8% YoY in April from 2.7% YoY, the European Union's statistics office in Luxembourg said in an initial estimate. An index of executive and consumer sentiment slipped to 106.2 from 107.3 in March, the sharpest drop since May 2010, and unemployment held at 9.9%, separate reports showed. (Source: Bloomberg)

U.S: Banks eased lending terms, demand for loans rose in April, according to a Federal Reserve survey. "The April survey indicated that, on net, bank lending standards and terms generally had eased somewhat further during the first quarter of this year," the central bank said in its quarterly survey of senior loan officers. The looser standards for business loans reflected more competition among banks and some banks "also pointed to a more favorable or less uncertain economic outlook," the Fed said. (Source: Bloomberg)

U.S: April manufacturing leading economy on exports, inventories. The Institute for Supply Management's factory index fell to 60.4 last month from 61.2 in March, the Tempe, Arizona-based group said. Readings greater than 50 signal expansions and the measure has exceeded 60 for four consecutive months, the best performance since 2004. (Source: Bloomberg)

U.S: Consumer sentiment index climbed in April from the lowest level in more than a year as job growth helped Americans withstand rising fuel costs. The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan final index of consumer sentiment rose to 69.8 from March's 67.5 reading that was the lowest since November 2009. (Source: Bloomberg)

20110503 1204 Malaysia Corporate Related News.

KLCI chart reading : side way range bound. 
 
EON Capital accepts Hong Leong Bank takeover bid
The board of EON Capital (EON Cap) has accepted the RM5.06bn takeover bid by Hong Leong Bank (HLB), capping a 16-month battle to create the country’s fourth-largest bank by assets. It also proposed a surprise net interim dividend of RM312m, or RM0.45 per share, in addition to the offer price. EON Cap also said that the net liabilities at EON Cap at company level shall not exceed RM14.1m as at the offer’s completion date. (StarBiz) 

AirAsia to re-impose fuel surcharge starting 3 May
AirAsia has finally succumbed to the pressure of persisting high fuel prices and will re-introduce fuel surcharge ranging from RM10 to RM30 per flight after having abolished its fuel surcharge policy in late 2008. The surcharge would be imposed starting 3 May 2011 for all domestic and international routes. (StarBiz)

Deal likely between Federal Government and Sarawak on Bakun Dam tariffs
The Federal and Sarawak Governments are believed to have to have struck an agreement on power tariffs for the Bakun Dam project early last week, sources said. According to the source, the rate is likely between the state utility firm Sarawak Energy’s offer for a starting tariff of six sen per kilowatt hour and the request from Sarawak Hidro SB, the owner and developer of the Bakun Dam, for around seven sen per kilowatt hour. This places the valuation of the RM7.46bn Bakun Dam project at RM6bn to RM8bn. (StarBiz)

Multi-Purpose unit to develop township in Phillipines
Shareholders of Philippine Racing Club (PRCI), a 33% owned unit of Multi-Purpose Holdings (MPHB), have approved an agreement with Ayala Land to jointly build a township on a 21 ha site in Makati City, Philippines. PRCI would contribute its property in Makati City while Ayala would secure all the necessary permits at all stages of the development and develop the property into a new township that consist of residential, commercial, retail and entertainment outfits. PRCI’s share is estimated to be about 18% of the total sales unit. Gross development value of the proposed project is estimated to be worth RM4.85bn. (StarBiz)

Italian firm Galperti to set up plant in Iskandar
Italian-based Galperti Group is set to open a manufacturing plant in the Setia Business Park in Iskandar Malaysia, a project by SP Setia, as part of the company's expansion plan into Asia. Galperti Manufacturing Malaysia SB is a subsidiary of the Galperti Group Italy, a market leader in the manufacturing of forged components for the oil and gas industries, in addition to chemical and petrochemical plants. The two-storey building spanning 2.6 ha, is an office and manufacturing facility valued at RM60m that is scheduled to begin operations in 2012. (BT)

Sime Darby Motors to expand further in China
Sime Darby Motors is planning for rapid growth of its dealership network in China, the world’s largest automotive market, this year. The company would expand the number of its vehicle outlets from 14 to 20 in the short term within both first- and second-tier cities in China. The higher capital expenditure will be funded by a combination of internally generated funds and external borrowings. Sime Darby Motors is Sime Darby’s largest revenue contributor and third largest pre-tax profit contributor. (StarBiz)

Utilities: Selangor confident of solving water issue. The Selangor government is confident that it will be able to solve issues pertaining the restructuring of the state's water industry through discussions with the Federal government as stipulated under the Water Services Industry Act 2006. (Source: The Star)

Property: Residential property boom in Johor Baru. The prices of residential properties have risen by an average of 40% since 2006, in a city which used to suffer from an overhang of properties. Property owners and buyers can expect property prices in Johor Baru to rise by a further 10-20% by end of 2011, on increased costs alone. (Source: Business Times)

Construction: Three names submitted for Gemas-JB rail job. The Chinese government is understood to have nominated three companies to partner local outfits in bidding for the RM7b Gemas-Johor Baru double-tracking project. The companies include China Railway Engineering Corp (CREC) and China Raiway Construction Corp Ltd. The 3rd company is understood to be partnering Tan Sri Tan Kay Hock, who controls Johan Holdings Bhd and George Kent (M) Bhd. (Source: The Edge Financial Weekly)  

20110503 1027 Global Market Related News.


DJIA chart reading : upside biased with possible pullback correction.

Hang Seng chart reading : side way range bound.

Asia Seeks to Diversify Record Reserves as U.S. Dollar Declines (Source: Bloomberg)
Asian nations are pooling funds to strengthen regional investment, in a step toward diversifying record foreign-exchange holdings as the U.S. dollar declines.

Asian Stocks Drop as Raw Material Producers Decline (Source: Bloomberg)
Asian stocks declined, with a regional benchmark index retreating from a three-year high, as oil and copper futures fell and Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. posted earnings that missed analysts’ estimates.

U.S. Stocks Retreat as Drop in Commodity Producers Overshadows Bin Laden (Source: Bloomberg)
U.S. stocks retreated, pulling the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index down from the highest level since June 2008, as a slump in commodity producers overshadowed optimism spurred by the death of Osama bin Laden.

Dollar Rebound Delayed to 2012 as Fed Policy Conspires With Slowing Growth (Source: Bloomberg)
Slowing U.S. growth and the widening interest-rate gap between America and the rest of the world may mean no rebound this year for the dollar, the world’s worst- performing major currency in the past three months. The Federal Reserve’s U.S. Trade-Weighted Major Currency Dollar Index fell to a record low last month after policy makers in Australia and Canada, and the European Central Bank raised rates to damp inflation. Even after the declines, strategists from Barclays Plc and Morgan Stanley are cutting their forecasts for the greenback.

Geithner Says Ultimate Deadline on Debt Limit Pushed to August (Source: Bloomberg)
By taking “extraordinary measures,” the U.S. can keep borrowing until Aug. 2 after reaching its $14.29 trillion legal debt limit no later than May 16 unless Congress acts, Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner said.

Fed Says Banks Eased Terms as Loan Demand Rose (Source: Bloomberg)
Banks eased lending terms in the first quarter as they forecast improvement in the U.S. economy and companies sought more loans, according to a Federal Reserve survey.

U.S. Manufacturing Grows at Faster Pace Than Estimated, Leading Recovery (Source: Bloomberg)
Manufacturing expanded faster than forecast in April, driven by gains in exports and inventories that are keeping the industry at the forefront of the U.S. economic expansion. The Institute for Supply Management’s factory index fell to 60.4 last month from 61.2 in March, the Tempe, Arizona-based group said today. Readings greater than 50 signal expansion and the measure has exceeded 60 for four consecutive months, the best performance since 2004.

Dollar Trades Near Five-Week Low Versus Yen on Fed Interest-Rate Outlook (Source: Bloomberg)
The dollar was 0.3 percent from a five-week low against the yen on speculation Federal Reserve officials speaking this week will reiterate their intention to keep interest rates low to stimulate economic growth. The New Zealand dollar extended yesterday’s decline against the yen after a statistics bureau report showed private-sector wages grew at a slower pace than some economists predicted. Canada’s dollar held losses from yesterday on prospects the New Democratic Party will deny Conservatives a majority in a national election.

Japan Passes $49 Billion Disaster Reconstruction Package With More to Come (Source: Bloomberg)
Japan’s parliament passed a 4-trillion yen ($49 billion) budget for rebuilding after the March 11 earthquake, the first in a series of relief packages. The Diet’s upper house unanimously approved the extra spending after the lower house passed the measure on April 30. Prime Minister Naoto Kan has said several extra budgets may be needed to rebuild after the quake, tsunami and nuclear crisis, with government estimates putting the damage at as much as 25 trillion yen. Higher taxes may be needed to limit any increases in bond sales that would swell a debt burden already twice the size of the economy.

India's Manufacturing Grows at Fastest Pace in 5 Months, Increasing Rate Pressure (Source: Bloomberg)
India’s manufacturing grew at the fastest pace in five months and exports climbed to a record, increasing pressure on the central bank to raise interest rates for the ninth time since the start of 2010. The Purchasing Managers’ Index rose to 58 in April from 57.9 in March, HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics said in an e-mail today. A number above 50 indicates expansion. India’s merchandise exports surged 44 percent to a record $29 billion in March from a year earlier, the commerce ministry said in an e- mailed statement today.

India’s Rates May Rise as Central Bank Sees Inflation Threat ‘Amplified’ (Source: Bloomberg)
India’s inflation risks have “amplified” because of higher commodity prices and “policy interventions” are needed, the central bank said, signaling the possibility of increasing borrowing costs today.

Indonesia Inflation Slows, Providing Room to Hold Benchmark Interest Rate (Source: Bloomberg)
Indonesia’s inflation slowed for a third straight month in April as food prices declined during the harvest period, giving the central bank room to refrain from raising interest rates when policy makers meet May 12. Consumer prices in Southeast Asia’s biggest economy rose 6.16 percent last month from a year earlier, after gaining 6.65 percent in March, the Central Bureau of Statistics said in Jakarta today. That’s less than the 6.4 percent median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of 19 economists.

Europe Manufacturing Growth Gains More Than Estimated as Germany Thrives (Source: Bloomberg)
European manufacturing growth accelerated more than estimated in April, driven by higher output in Germany and France, suggesting the region’s economy is weathering surging energy costs. A gauge of manufacturing in the 17-nation euro area rose to 58 from 57.5 in March, London-based Markit Economics said in an e-mailed report today. That’s above an initial estimate of 57.7 on April 19. A reading above 50 indicates growth.

Interest-Rate Increases Would Exacerbate Debt Challenges, BOE’s King Says (Source: Bloomberg)
Bank of England Governor Mervyn King said high debt levels pose “massive” economic challenges that would be exacerbated by higher interest rates. “The economic consequences of high-level indebtedness now would become more severe if rates were to rise,” King said yesterday at a committee of the European Parliament in Brussels. “It is the main reason why interest rates are so low.”

BOE Won’t Raise Rate Until 2012 as Growth Weakness Persists, Bootle Says (Source: Bloomberg)
The Bank of England won’t raise its interest rate until 2013 as the economic recovery’s momentum stays “pretty weak,” Deloitte & Touche LLP said. “The underlying momentum of the economic recovery looks pretty weak,” Deloitte’s economic adviser Roger Bootle, a former adviser to the U.K. Treasury, said in a report today. “My central forecast is still that rates remain on hold throughout this year and next.”

Yen, Dollar Advance on Concern Bin Laden’s Death Will Lead to Retaliation (Source: Bloomberg)
The yen rose against all its major counterparts after the U.S. and Australia boosted security at their embassies around the world on concern the killing of Osama bin Laden will lead to revenge attacks.

Australian Dollar Is Near Record Before Central Bank Holds Policy Meeting (Source: Bloomberg)
Australia’s dollar traded 0.7 percent from a record high before the Reserve Bank of Australia holds a policy meeting today amid signs that inflation is accelerating. The New Zealand dollar extended yesterday’s decline against the yen as a statistics bureau report showed private-sector wages grew at a slower pace than some economists predicted. Demand for both South Pacific currencies was damped as prices declined for commodities including crude oil and gold.

Dollar up, oil down after news bin Laden killed
LONDON, May 2 (Reuters) - The killing of Al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden by U.S. forces prompted investors on Monday to strip some of the risk premium underpinning world asset prices, lifting the dollar, boosting stocks and weakening commodities.
"Markets across the globe received a bit of a boost ... as news broke that U.S. forces had killed Osama bin Laden. However, like many euphoric bounces, they are often short-lived, especially given the possibility for reprisal attacks from extremists," said Ben Potter, market strategist at IG Index.

20110503 1024 Global Commodities Related News.

Commodities Beat Financial Assets for Fifth Month in Best Streak Since ’97 (Source: Bloomberg)
Commodities beat stocks, bonds and the dollar for a fifth straight month, the longest stretch in at least 14 years, as demand for raw materials increases with expanding economies and Federal Reserve promises to boost growth. The Standard & Poor’s GSCI Total Return Index of 24 commodities climbed 4.4 percent in April, after reaching the highest level since October 2008. The MSCI All-Country World Index of equities advanced 3.9 percent, the most since December, and the U.S. Dollar Index, a gauge against six counterparts, fell 3.9 percent, touching a 33-month low. Bonds of all types returned 0.9 percent on average, based on Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s Global Broad Market Index.

Corn (Source: CME)
US corn futures tumble 2.9%, slumping as traders reduce risk premium amid hopes for improved planting opportunities. The market went into the weekend adding premium on fears of severe planting delays; now the forecasts have open window of opportunity for active planting the western Midwest, notes Chad Henderson at Price Ag Consultants. Today's declines were weather-related as the market has a perception farmers in parts of the western belt could actually finish up some corn seedings before a new rain system moves into the area. CBOT July corn was down 22c at $7.34 1/2 a bushel.

Wheat (Source: CME)
US wheat futures stumbled, backpedaling from early price gains on spillover weakness from corn. Traders booked profits on initial gains after wheat failed to attract buyers after futures spiked on crop and planting fears, analysts said. The market didn't have enough fresh supportive news to withstand pressure from tumbling corn. Meanwhile, traders said futures were a little overbought, a feature encouraging traders to take profits on recent gains. CBOT July wheat fell 1.2% to $7.97 3/4 a bushel.

Rice (Source: CME)
US rough rice futures rallied, picking up where it left off on Friday when futures climbed the exchange-imposed daily trading limit. Worries about excessive rains hurting production--including Arkansas, a key growing state-- and flooding in Missouri are underpinning futures. The threat of the US Army Corps of Engineers opening an emergency floodway encompassing 130,000 acres of prime farmland to ease near-record flooding at the confluence of the Ohio and Mississippi rivers helped lift futures to 10-week highs. CBOT July rice finished up 26 1/2c at $15.19 1/2 per hundredweight.

India Panel Defers Lifting Of Wheat, Rice Export Ban (Source: CME)
An Indian ministerial panel deferred a decision on lifting a ban on wheat and rice exports as it wanted to first take stock of requirement under a proposed food security law to increase subsidized grain sales, a senior government official said. The country is facing a dilemma as there is little space left to store grains in government warehouses. That had triggered speculation the government may soon allow limited exports of wheat and rice. India's Farm Ministry had been pushing for some exports as procurement from a bumper wheat crop is underway, but food ministry officials have opposed the move, saying that it will need to keep all the stocks bought from farmers to meet the proposed food security law. Last month, Farm Secretary P.K Basu said India can easily export 2.0 million tons each of wheat and rice because of good stocks and a likely bumper production this crop year through June.
India, the world's second-largest producer of wheat and rice, has maintained a ban on exports of the two staples for more than three years to curb inflation, although it has allowed limited shipments under diplomatic agreements. The country is expecting a record foodgrain output of 235.9 million tons in 2010-11 because of favorable weather and higher plantings, up from 218.1 million tons last year. As of April 1, India's rice and wheat stocks stood at 44.18 million tons, more than double the buffer requirement. The food ministry official, who didn't want to be identified, told Dow Jones Newswires that the ministerial panel cleared a proposal to import edible oil for subsidized sales to the poor until Sept. 30. The move will allow the world's top edible oil importer to continue supplying cheap cooking oil beyond the previous deadline of March 31 to millions of poor families.
The food ministry had proposed to import 500,000 metric tons of edible oil through various state-run agencies on behalf of provincial governments. India's state-run trading agencies have been importing edible oil regularly since July 2008 and selling them below cost for welfare programs. The federal government later reimburses the agencies for selling edible oil below cost. The state-run agencies imported around 650,000 tons of edible oil in the last fiscal year that ended March 31. India meets more than half of its total edible oil requirement of about 15 million tons through imports from Indonesia, Malaysia, Argentina and Brazil. The ministerial panel also approved a proposal to supply around 120,000 metric tons of common-grade rice and 106,234 tons of wheat flour to Maldives from April 2011 until March 2014 to honor a diplomatic request, the official said.
The panel also approved a proposal to supply a total of 5.0 million tons of wheat and rice from federal stocks to poor families over six months starting June 1, a move that will help trim stocks at overflowing warehouses.

'Crop Scouts' Ready To Measure Wheat (Source: CME)
Food makers are heading into the wheat fields of Kansas this week to get an early read on the U.S. crop -- and possibly commodity costs in the months ahead. General Mills Inc., Sara Lee Corp. and Nestle SA are expected to send employees to the nation's breadbasket as part of the state's annual crop tour. They will join government officials, millers and members of the media in assessing the impact dry conditions have had on the Kansas wheat crop. A record number of people are expected to join the tour as worries grow about the impact a poor harvest could have on wheat prices, said Ben Handcock, executive vice president of the Wheat Quality Council, an industry group that sponsors the tour. Kansas last year grew 16% of the country's wheat and is the top U.S. producer of hard red winter wheat, the variety milled into flour for bread. Prices for hard red winter wheat have nearly doubled since last summer on concerns about low supplies.
Costs could surge further for food makers and restaurants alike if the Kansas crop looks worse than expected. "Everybody wants to see this bad wheat to see if it's true," Mr. Handcock said. Rising commodity prices have pushed up the cost of flour, corn-based sweeteners and beef, among other products on which food makers and restaurants rely. General Mills and Kellogg Co. have already raised prices in response to surging costs for grains and other commodities. McDonald's Corp. also is raising prices, recently doubling its forecast for the rise in U.S. commodity costs this year to a range of 4% to 4.5%. Kellogg, Sara Lee and Kraft Foods Inc. will report earnings as the tour is under way. Commodity costs are expected to be a top issue for many food companies. For Kraft, "commodity cost-inflation expectations have increased as the prices of cheese, meat and coffee have increased," wrote Sanford C. Bernstein analyst Alexia Howard in a report last week.
Cereal and pasta maker Ralcorp Holdings Inc. is likely to face commodity cost pressures as the year goes on and hedges put in place to protect against price surges, particularly for wheat, come to an end, Ms. Howard wrote. Company employees and others on the tour, known as "crop scouts," wade into fields to count kernels and measure plants with the goal of predicting an average yield before the harvest starts in a few weeks. The projection can influence the grain-purchasing strategies of companies and forecasts for commodity prices. The crop tour will put out an estimate for the Kansas wheat crop late Thursday. The harvest in the southern Plains, which will come ahead of other major crops such as corn and soybeans, could influence whether rising commodity costs are a one-year blip or a lingering issue. Companies likely will have to pay up if farmers bring in a smaller-than-expected crop, and futures markets rally.
Analysts already expect significant losses to the wheat crop from drought conditions that stretch from southern Texas to Kansas and Colorado. Citigroup predicts farmers will produce 700 million bushels or less of hard red winter wheat, a 30% drop from last year.

US farmers still on track to plant huge corn crop
CHICAGO, April 29 (Reuters) - U.S. farmers should still be able to achieve the U.S. Agriculture Department's corn seedings forecast of 92.2 million acres -- the second-largest since 1944 -- despite weather delays in April, a grains analyst said Friday.
Planting progress is behind schedule, but it's too early for farmers to start shifting some acreage to soybeans or even to other varieties of corn.

Corn Products 1Q Profit Triples, Raises Year View (Source: CME)
Corn Products International Inc.'s first-quarter earnings more than tripled, beating analyst estimates as the company's recent acquisition of National Starch continues to drive higher sales. The company also benefited from a $58 million payment from Mexico stemming from a North American Free Trade Agreement settlement, and increased its full-year earnings estimate by $1.25, to $4.85 to $5.15 a share. The suburban Chicago company, which supplies sweeteners and starches to food processors and industrial customers, successfully passed on rising corn costs to customers, and continued to reap the benefits of last year's $1.3 billion purchase of National Starch. The acquisition is part of the company's drive to diversify, and has driven increased volumes and profit-margins. National Starch's products, including ingredients for soups, mayonnaise, sauces and yogurt, have allowed Corn Products to capitalize on the growing demand for healthier food ingredients, which have higher profit margin.
"We continue to move from basic products to more specialized offerings that command a higher selling price," Chief Executive Ilene Gordon said in a conference call. The NAFTA settlement, stemming from a finding that Mexico had unfairly tried to protect its domestic sugar producers with a tax on beverages with corn sweetener, accounts for 75 cents of the $1.25 increase it Corn Products' 2011 earnings estimate. Also contributing to the quarterly results, and the improved guidance, were rising volumes from the National Starch business, a lower tax rate and the ongoing strength of the Brazilian real, Chief Financial Officer Cheryl Beebe said. Still, Beebe warned investors that the first half of the year would be stronger than the second, as the company starts to feel more pressure from corn prices. She said rather than the 20.4% gross margin it reported in the first quarter, the full-year margin would be around 18%. "Don't multiply the first quarter by four to get a full-year number," Beebe said.

U.S. Faces Sugar Squeeze (Source: CME)
There's no candy-coating it: The U.S. is facing a sugar crunch. A potential drop in home-grown sugar coupled with government caps on imports of the sweetener could drive up prices, just before the peak Christmas season. A harsh winter has caused headaches for U.S. sugar-cane and sugar-beet farmers. Record cold in December damaged sugar cane in Florida, taking about 260,000 short tons of raw sugar out of production, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Now, soil soaked by snow melt and continued cool and wet weather in the Midwest is delaying the planting of sugar beets, the source of more than half of U.S. sugar production. The delays could reduce yields of the sweetener, because the sugar content of the root increases the longer it is in the ground. As of April 24, just 10% of sugar-beet acreage has been planted in major grower states, down from 80% at the same time last year, the USDA has said.
The U.S. consumes more than 11 million tons of sugar a year and has to import some every year to cover its needs. But to shield domestic producers, the government increases tariffs on sugar imports after a limit known as the tariff-rate quota, or TRQ, of 1.2 million tons is reached. While world raw-sugar futures prices have plunged 38% since early February, U.S. prices, which are usually more stable due to the trade restrictions, have fallen 7.9%. The thinly traded domestic sugar contract for July delivery on Friday fell 2.1% to settle at 36.50 cents a pound. In comparison, world sugar futures ended at 23.38 cents, down 2.3% on the day. Responding to the Florida freeze, the USDA in April raised the TRQ by 325,000 tons for this fiscal year, which ends Sept. 30. At the time, the USDA said this increase should reduce the need for expensive sugar imports.
But it "really won't cover the loss of production that we're likely to see due to the late planting of sugar beets," said Dave Abler, a professor of agricultural economics at Pennsylvania State University. "Compared to historic standards, we're well behind getting sugar-beet acreage planted." Even if the sugar-beet harvest, which begins in early October, is poor, the U.S. by law can't raise the TRQ until April 1, when most of the domestic sugar crop has been harvested and sold. The result could be less sugar on the domestic market and higher prices, just as food manufacturers are preparing for the end-of-the-year holiday season.

Corn, wheat fall on bin Laden news, weather
MADRID/SINGAPORE, May 2 (Reuters) - Chicago corn and wheat futures fell about 1 percent on Monday after news of the death of al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden prompted a broad-based sell-off on commodity markets.
"It is all about erosion of risk premium. If Osama is taken out, you are going to see risk premium being wiped out from the market," said Jonathan Barratt, managing director at Commodity Broking Services in Sydney.

Australia wheat exports strong, high currency yet to impact
SYDNEY, May 2 (Reuters) - Wheat stocks held by bulk handlers in Australia fell 8 percent for the second straight month in March indicating strong exports despite the local dollar rising above US$1 during the month, making exports less competitive.
Australia's bulk storage of wheat grain at the end of March was estimated at 18.7 million tonnes, a drop of around 1.6 million tonnes from February, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) said on Monday. Stocks also fell 8 percent in February from March.

Western US Corn Belt seen drier next week, east wet
CHICAGO, April 29 (Reuters) - A drier pattern in the western half of the U.S. Corn Belt could promote planting in some areas next week, but more rain should continue to limit fieldwork in the eastern belt, a forecaster said Friday.
"Things are going to improve a bit in the western belt, but could deteriorate late next week and next weekend," said Mike Palmerino, a meteorologist with Telvent DTN.

Pakistan makes large new crop wheat exports -trade
HAMBURG, April 29 (Reuters) - Private exporters have made large sales of new crop wheat from Pakistan in the past week totaling 200,000 to 220,000 tonnes, traders said on Friday.
Sales were made to a series of buyers in countries including the United Arab Emirates, Tanzania, Malaysia and Vietnam at prices between $300 to $309 a tonne FOB Pakistani ports, traders said. Sales were largely for nearby shipment."The country's harvest, which started this month, is looking considerably larger than expected and it looks like the country will be in the export market for the coming weeks," one trader said.

India's Oct-April sugar output up 24 pct-industry sources
NEW DELHI, May 2 (Reuters) - India's sugar mills have produced 22.6 million tonnes of the sweetener since the season began on Oct. 1, up 24 percent from 18.2 million tonnes a year earlier, industry sources said on Monday.
India, the world's top sugar consumer and the biggest producer behind Brazil, is likely to churn out 25 million tonnes in 2010/11 against 18.8 million tonnes in the previous year, Indian Sugar Mills Association, a producers' body, has forecast.

Brazil coffee soaks up showers but awaits dryness
BRASILIA, April 29 (Reuters) - Brazil's main coffee regions benefited from rains in April that were at least a third
heavier than the monthly average, helping fruit fill out, but conditions must turn dry in May as farmers begin to harvest.
Data from local weather forecaster Somar showed that Minas Gerais, the biggest coffee state in the world's No. 1 grower, received 36 to 84 percent more rain than usual. Other top states, Espirito Santo and Sao Paulo, were also far wetter. "This is quite beneficial," said Somar meteorologist Marco Antonio dos Santos, pointing out one exception -- the mainly robusta-growing state Espirito Santo. Rain had disrupted harvesting there, which starts earlier than for arabica.

German 2010/11 sugar output falls on year
HAMBURG, May 2 (Reuters) - Germany produced 3.442 million tonnes of refined sugar in the 2010/11 season which has just ended, down from 4.207 million tonnes in 2009/10, the association of German sugar producers WVZ said on Monday.
A fall had been expected because of poor weather which reduced beet sugar content.

Brazil ships 2.05 mln bags green coffee by Apr. 29
BRASILIA, April 29 (Reuters) - World top coffee producer Brazil shipped 2.05 million 60-kg bags of green, unroasted coffee from April 1-28, the Carvalhaes brokerage said on Friday.
The official total for the month will be issued in May by the Council of Green Coffee Exporters (Cecafe), but taking its figure for the full month of April last year of 1.98 million bags of green coffee shipped, exports have risen this month.

Oil falls by 1 percent on news Bin Laden dead
SINGAPORE, May 2 (Reuters) - Oil prices fell by 1 percent on Monday on news that U.S. forces had killed al-Qaeda leader Osama Bin Laden, after a decade of counter-terrorism efforts that deepened U.S. military involvement in central Asia and the oil-rich Middle East.
"There's probably a knee-jerk reaction to the extent that part of the geopolitical risk has been supported by al-Qaeda, so there will be an initial sell-off," said Jeremy Friesen, commodity strategist at Societe Generale, adding that the effect of the news on prices may wane later this week.

Oil Drops on Economic Growth Concern as Bin Laden Death Boosts Volatility (Source: Bloomberg)
Oil dropped for a second day in New York on signs U.S. economic growth may moderate, as volatility increased on concern the death of Osama bin Laden will lead to retaliatory attacks. Futures slid as much as 0.6 percent after the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index dropped last month and a Chinese manufacturing index fell more than forecast in April. Oil yesterday reached the highest since Sept. 22, 2008, after the al-Qaeda leader was killed in Pakistan.

Saudi lifts April oil output to 8.5 mln bpd-sources
DUBAI/KHOBAR, Saudi Arabia, May 1 (Reuters) - Saudi Arabia's crude oil output edged back up in April to around 8.5 million barrels per day (bpd) from roughly 8.3 million bpd in March as demand picks up, Saudi-based industry sources said on Sunday.
The kingdom slashed output by 800,000 bpd in March, due to oversupply, oil minister Ali al-Naimi said last month, adding that he expected production in April to be a little higher than March's level.

20110503 1023 Soy Oil & Palm Oil Related News.


Soy Oil chart reading : side way range bound.



ITS CPO export up 13.6% to 1,255,392 tonnes for the period of 1~30 Apr 2011.
SGS CPO export up 18.2% to 1,321,068 tonnes for the period of 1~30 Apr 2011.

Soybeans (Source: CME)
US soybean futures end modestly lower pressured by spillover weakness from sharp declines in corn and sluggish export demand, analysts say. The threat of wet conditions in the eastern Midwest and Delta possibly shifting some corn acreage to soybeans if the slow planting pace continues weighed on prices as well, particularly after futures failed to attract buyers on an initial push to three-week highs. CBOT July soybeans ended 1c lower at $13.93 a bushel.

Soybean Meal/Oil (Source: CME)
Soy product futures end mixed, after choppy session that saw both soymeal and soyoil futures trade in positive and negative territory. The products were caught in spiral of choppy soybean trade, with soyoil influenced by two-sided price action in crude oil futures as well, analysts said. CBOT July soymeal settled down $1.30 or 0.4% lower at $362.30 per short ton, and July soyoil ended up 0.02 cents or 0.03% at 58.60 cents per pound.

China May soy imports seen flat at 4.4 mln T on year-MOFCOM
BEIJING, April 29 (Reuters) - China, the world's top soy importer, is expected to import 4.4 million tonnes of the oilseed in May, almost flat from a year-ago, according to the latest forecast by China's commerce ministry.
For April, imports are expected to rise 24 percent from March to 4.34 million tonnes, but only 3 percent higher than the same period a year ago, according to Reuters' calculation based on the figures released by the ministry and Customs.

Argentina says early-planted soy nearly gathered
BUENOS AIRES, April 29 (Reuters) - Argentine farmers have nearly finished gathering early-seeded 2010/11 soy but yields are uneven due to extreme dryness earlier in the season, the Agriculture Ministry said on Friday in its weekly crop report.
The ministry estimates this season's crop at 50.4 million tonnes in the world's No. 3 supplier of soybeans and the top exporter of soyoil and soymeal.

SE Asian palm oil firms go on African land safari
SINGAPORE/KUALA LUMPUR, April 29 (Reuters) - Southeast Asian palm oil firms are turning to Africa as land runs out back home and world demand for cheap cooking oil soars, but the continent's harsh weather, high costs and land disputes could derail their plans.
Malaysia's Sime Darby  and Singapore's Golden Agri Resources have joined a slew of global firms entering Africa by snapping up hundreds of thousands of hectares of land in Liberia, but it could still take years to turn the region into a net exporter and help ease high palm oil prices.