Tuesday, November 15, 2011

20111115 1815 FCPO EOD Daily Chart Study.

FCPO closed : 3176, changed : -19 points, volume : higher.
Bollinger band reading : pullback correction upside biased.
MACD Histrogram : turned lower, buyer taking profit.
Support : 3150, 3100, 3070, 3050, 3020 level.
Resistance : 3200, 3250, 3270, 3300 level.
Comment :
FCPO closed recorded small loss with higher volume traded while overnight soy oil closed higher and currently trading firmer while crude oil price pulling back lower.
Better export data release by both cargo surveyor triggered FCPO price to test new high 4 month high with some profit taking activities kick in.
Daily chart formed a down doji bar candle closed below upper Bollinger band level after market opened unchanged, eased lower and surge upward tested above 3200 resistance level before fall lower into negative zone and trade range bound to closed off the low of the day.
Chart study revised to suggesting a pullback correction taking place upside biased market development testing support and resistance.
When to buy : buy at support or weakness with quick cut loss and profit target.
When to sell : sell at resistant or strength with quick cut loss and profit target.

20111115 1745 FKLI EOD Daily Chart Study.

FKLI closed : 1462, changed : -8.5 points, volume : lower.
Bollinger band reading : pullback correction little upside biased.
MACD Histrogram : falling, buyer leaving as seller testing market.
Support : 1458, 1445, 1440, 1435 level.
Resistance : 1470, 1477, 1485, 1491 level.
Comment :
FKLI closed recorded loss surrender most of yesterday gains with decreasing volume transacted doing huge 15 points discount compare to cash market that closed marginally lower. Overnight U.S. markets ended recorded loss and today Asia markets closed mostly lower while European markets currently in negative zone.
Resume concern on European debt problem after higher Italy bond yield development.
Daily chart formed a down doji bar candle closed below middle Bollinger band support level after market opened lower, edge few ticks higher and traded side way range bound followed by last 30 minutes fall lower to closed near the low of the day.
Chart wise, market still likely to trade within a pullback correction little upside biased development testing support and resistance level.
When to buy : buy at support or weakness with quick cut loss and profit target.
When to sell : sell at resistance or strength with quick cut loss and profit target.

20111115 1717 Global Market & Commodities Related News.

Asian shares fall as euro zone yields rise
TOKYO, Nov 15 (Reuters) - Asian shares fell, as a rise in euro zone bond yields reflected lingering doubts about the ability of politicians in Italy and Greece to push through painful reforms to resolve their debt crises and win market confidence.
"Italy can't find buyers to finance its debt, as fears over high price volatility in Italian bonds and speculators hitting shares of banks with huge exposure to Italy have made European financial institutions, traditionally long-term investors, wary of purchases," said Takashi Nakagawa, a senior credit analyst at Daiwa Capital Markets.

FOREX-Euro dips; dollar/yen spikes briefly on stops
SINGAPORE, Nov 15 (Reuters) - The euro dipped on Tuesday, stuck near the bottom of a recent trading range after a rise in Italian and Spanish bond yields underscored the challenges facing Europe as it tries to contain the region's debt crisis.
The dollar briefly spiked higher against the yen but later gave back most of its gains, and traders said the move was likely caused by a large-lot flow and stop-loss buying, and was probably not intervention.

US soy up on forecast of harvest rain, wheat slides
SINGAPORE, Nov 15 (Reuters) - Chicago soy rose 1 percent, gaining more ground as the market was supported by rains delaying the last leg of the U.S. harvest and expectations of strong demand led by China, the world's top buyer.
"Demand destruction remains at the forefront of the market's mind as we are seeing relatively sluggish export results out of the United States," said Luke Mathews, a commodity strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

Australia harvesting record canola crop
SYDNEY, Nov 15 (Reuters) - Australia farmers are busy harvesting an expected record canola crop of around 2.62 million tonnes, up more than 20 percent from the previous season's bumper crop, the Australian Oilseeds Federation (AOF) said on Tuesday.
Benign weather ahead of the harvest, which is now well advanced across most areas of Australia where the oilseed, also known as rapeseed, is grown, had boosted yields, AOF said.

Australia wheat crop faces quality risks -Cargill
SYDNEY, Nov 14 (Reuters) - Australia's 2011/12 wheat harvest, now gathering pace, runs the risk of quality downgrades following wet weather although overall quality is expected to be an improvement on last year, according to Cargill Inc's Australian grain marketing chief.
"We've still got a fair way to go so at this stage there doesn't seem to be too many problems in eastern Australia although in Western Australia there's been a few issues," Mitch Morison, commercial general manager of Cargill's  Australian grain trading arm, said in a telephone interview.

Vietnam Coffee-Farmers rush to harvest, quality a concern
HANOI, Nov 15 (Reuters) - Vietnam, the world's largest robusta coffee producer, has harvested around 10 percent of its current 2011/2012 crop and farmers are accelerating the picking process to avoid theft, which would lead to lower quality, traders said on Tuesday.
The harvest began early this month after prolonged rain had slowed cherry's maturing process. Traders have forecast November coffee shipment to rise to 50,000-75,000 tonnes, from 30,000 tonnes estimated for October loading.

Argentina approves more 2010/11 corn exports
BUENOS AIRES, Nov 14 (Reuters) - Argentina's government approved another 500,000 tonnes of 2010/11 corn for export on Monday and an industry group said more might soon be freed up for shipment.
Argentina's government controls corn and wheat exports through a quota system designed to guarantee affordable local food supplies and help tame high inflation, a system that irritates growers in the world's second-biggest corn supplier.

Brent above $112, recoups some losses; Europe weighs
SINGAPORE, Nov 15 (Reuters) - Brent crude futures rose above $112, recouping some of the previous session's fall of more than $2, while concerns over Europe slipping into a recession and hurting oil demand growth capped the gains.
"Investors are constantly in a risk-on, risk-off mode because of the uncertainty in Europe," said Natalie Robertson, an analyst at ANZ. "The key thing is to look at Europe. Macroeconomic developments are overshadowing everything else."

S.Korea October LNG imports rise 9 pct y/y
SEOUL, Nov 15 (Reuters) - South Korea's imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) jumped 9 percent year-on-year in October, as the world's second-largest LNG buyer built its inventory ahead of winter demand, customs data showed on Tuesday.
South Korea imported 2.98 million tonnes of LNG in October, up from 2.74 million tonnes a year earlier, the Korea Customs Service data showed.

Copper experts trim 2012 price fcast-Chile Cochilco
SANTIAGO, Nov 14 (Reuters) - Copper market experts have revised down their 2012 average price estimates in light of the risks of a recession in the euro zone and slowdown in China, Chile's state copper commission Cochilco said on Monday.
Cochilco said 19 specialists it polled forecast an average copper price of $3.62/lb for next year, compared to an average forecast of $4.19/lb estimated in a previous survey conducted in August.

Codelco offers lower 2012 copper premiums to China -trade  
HONG KONG, Nov 14 (Reuters) - Chile's Codelco, the world's top copper producer, offered a 4.3 percent cut in physical copper premiums to its Chinese buyers for 2012, the first decline since 2009, trading sources said on Monday.
The offer of a $110 premium per tonne over cash London Metal Exchange copper prices  is in line with expectations and lower than the $115 Chinese buyers have paid this year. The 2011 premium rose 35 percent from the previous year.

METALS-Copper down on euro zone worries
SHANGHAI, Nov 15 (Reuters) - Copper fell on Tuesday, struggling to define a new technical range, as investors stayed cautious after Italy's five-year bond yields rose to a record euro-era high, fuelling fears that high borrowing costs would hamper the nation's efforts to trim its debt.
Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange  inched down 0.04 percent to $7,756.75 a tonne by 0402 GMT, after rising 1.6 percent previously.

PRECIOUS-Gold tracks risk assets down on Europe fear
SINGAPORE, Nov 15 (Reuters) - Spot gold prices inched down on Tuesday, as investors unnerved by an Italian bond auction focused on the scope of the task faced by new governments in Italy and Greece in keeping the region's sovereign debt crisis under control.
Though gold is supported by its safe-haven allure, it is prone to spillover from the heavy sell-off in the wider financial market, where sentiment remains fickle over Europe's painful journey en route to solving its debt crisis.

Gold tracks risk assets down on Europe fear
SINGAPORE, Nov 15 (Reuters) - Spot gold prices inched down, as investors unnerved by an Italian bond auction focused on the scope of the task faced by new governments in Italy and Greece in keeping the region's sovereign debt crisis under control.
"There is a much greater likelihood of its ending badly," said a Singapore-based trader.

20111115 1715 Regional Markets EOD Daily Chart Study.

 DJIA chart reading :  pullback correction upside biased.
 Hang Seng chart reading :  pullback correction upside biased.
KLCI chart reading :  pullback correction little upside biased.

20111115 1052 Global Market & Commodities Related News.

GLOBAL MARKETS-Asian shares fall as euro zone yields rise
TOKYO, Nov 15 (Reuters) - Asian shares fell on Tuesday, as a rise in euro zone bond yields reflected lingering doubts about the ability of politicians in Italy and Greece to push through painful reforms to resolve their debt crises and win market confidence.  
"Global financial markets are facing a key pivotal point," said Barclays Capital analysts in a research note.

COMMODITIES-Oil leads drop as markets turn volatile
NEW YORK, Nov 14 (Reuters) - Oil prices fell on Monday after new governments in Italy and Greece failed to assuage fears about Europe's debt crisis, threatening to put commodities on a renewed path of volatility.
"The markets are realizing there are real economic problems in Europe," Christophe Barret, oil analyst at Credit Agricole, said as the weak industrial data, political woes and the euro-era high price for Italy's 5-year bonds combined to pressure global markets.

Oil falls on weak euro zone data, recession worry
NEW YORK, Nov 14 (Reuters) - Oil prices fell on Monday as contracting industrial output in the euro zone highlighted the danger of recession in the region as Europe struggles to contain its sovereign debt crisis.
"The markets are realizing there are real economic problems in Europe," said Christophe Barret, global oil analyst at French bank Credit Agricole.

POLL-U.S. crude stocks seen down on lower imports, higher runs
Nov 14 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil inventories are expected to have dropped last week for the second straight time on lower imports and slightly higher refinery runs, a preliminary Reuters poll of analysts showed on Monday.
On average, U.S. crude stockpiles were forecast down 1.1 million barrels for the week ended Nov. 11, the poll of seven analysts showed. In the week to Nov. 4, crude stocks in the United States fell 1.37 million barrels to 338.09 million barrels, data from Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed.

Libya data forecasts full crude exports end-2012
LONDON, Nov 14 (Reuters) - Libya's National Oil Corporation (NOC) expects crude exports to rise to 1.345 million barrels per day (bpd) by the fourth quarter of 2012, indicating the OPEC member's oil is returning to the international market faster than expected.
The NOC made the forecast in a table entitled "Estimated Daily Production", which was sent to NOC clients and seen by Reuters on Monday.

S.Korea October LNG imports rise 9 pct y/y
SEOUL, Nov 15 (Reuters) - South Korea's imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) jumped 9 percent in October over a year earlier, as the world's second-largest LNG buyer built its inventory ahead of winter demand, customs data showed on Tuesday.
South Korea imported 2.98 million tonnes of LNG in October, up from 2.74 million tonnes a year earlier, the Korea Customs Service data showed. It imported LNG mostly from Indonesia, Qatar, Malaysia, Oman and Russia.

Euro Coal-S.African prices fall $1/T with oil
LONDON, Nov 14 (Reuters) - Prompt physical coal prices dropped by around $1.00 a tonne or 0.9 percent on Monday following oil's $2 loss on worries over implementation of reforms in Italy and Greece after naming new leaders and lower industrial output in the euro zone .
"We're living in a post-RWE world and there are more sellers now than there were a few weeks ago," one major European trader said.

Natural gas ends down 3.5 pct on weather, supply
NEW YORK, Nov 14 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures ended down on Monday for a fourth straight day, with concerns about growing supplies and fairly mild U.S. weather in November again driving most contracts to new lows.
"We don't have the space heating load yet, and unfortunately, we're probably looking at at least two more weeks of storage injections," a Texas trader said, noting storage will head into winter at record highs for a third straight year.

20111115 1018 Global Economic Related News.

India: Inflation exceeds 9% for 11th month, reducing scope for rate pause
India’s inflation exceeded 9% for an 11th straight month, crimping the central bank’s scope to keep interest rates unchanged and shield the economy from a faltering global recovery. The benchmark wholesale-price index rose 9.73% in October from a year earlier, the commerce ministry said in a statement in New Delhi today. That compares with a 9.72% jump in September and the median forecast of 9.65% in a Bloomberg News survey of 19 economists. Asian nations from Indonesia to South Korea are either cutting rates or keeping them on hold to protect expansion as Europe’s debt crisis threatens to trigger a global slump. India’s central bank last month signaled it’s nearing the end of monetary tightening, provided inflation slows, after it raised rates for the 13th time since mid-March 2010. (Bloomberg)

Japan: Economy expands at 6% pace as exports drive post-earthquake recovery
Japan’s economy expanded for the first time in four quarters as exports recovered from a record earthquake, an expansion that is already slowing because of weakening overseas demand. Gross domestic product grew at an annualized 6% in the three months ending 30 Sept, the fastest pace in 1 1/2-years, the Cabinet Office said today in Tokyo. At JPY543trn (USD7trn), economic output was back to levels seen before the 11 March earthquake. A sustained rebound will depend on how much reconstruction demand can offset a slowdown in global growth as Europe’s debt crisis damps global confidence and an appreciating yen erodes profits. (Bloomberg)

Russia: Growth accelerated in third quarter for first time since last year
Russia’s economic growth accelerated in the third quarter for the first time since last year as companies stepped up investment and bank lending buoyed consumer spending. Gross domestic product expanded 4.8% from a year earlier, the fastest pace since the second quarter of 2010, after increasing 3.4% in the previous three months, the Federal Statistics Service said in an e-mailed statement today. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of 14 economists was 5%. The Economy Ministry estimated it at 5.1%. The world’s largest energy exporter is counting on domestic consumption to balance shrinking demand abroad as Europe fights to staunch a debt crisis. (Bloomberg)

Argentina: Cuts reserve requirements after deposits tumble by USD645m
Argentina’s central bank cut dollar reserve requirements after bank deposits plunged USD645m last week following the government’s moves to restrict foreign exchange purchases in South America’s second-biggest economy. Argentine banks will be required to hold just 20% of their dollar deposits at the central bank as reserves, Banco Central de la Republica Argentina said in a 11 Nov statement. Banks previously had to keep all dollar savings not being used to finance exporters at the central bank. President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner’s efforts to slow capital flight since her 23 Oct re-election by ramping up oversight of foreign exchange purchases, ordering energy and mining companies to repatriate export revenue and telling insurance companies to bring investments back to the country sent investors to banks to withdraw dollars. (Bloomberg)

20111115 1017 Malaysia Corporate Related News.

Spurts in penny stocks result in unusual market activity queries
With penny stock spurts resulting in nine queries in half a month, November is turning out to be a record month for so-called unusual market activity (UMA) queries. Three queries were issued yesterday to SYF Resources, DPS Resources and Flonic Hi-Tech. SYF saw 60% of its share base traded on the open market while DPS saw more than 100% of its shares changing hands. Flonic has gained 87% over seven market days, while Harvest Court is now 28 times the value it closed at seven weeks ago. Others that have been queried so far this month are Emico, Hibiscus Petroleum, Sanichi Technology, GPRO Technologies and Maxbiz. (Financial Daily)

Penang rolls out RM5bn-RM8bn infrastructure jobs
The Penang government will pay developers with prime land around the tourist belt area of Gurney Drive to construct three bypass highways and a sea tunnel linking the island to the mainland to reduce traffic congestion in the state. Of the four projects, the Penang government plans to build a 6.5km undersea tunnel connecting Butterworth on the mainland and Gurney Drive, from which a 4.2km bypass would be constructed linking it to the Tun Dr Lim Chong Eu Expressway. There is also intention to establish a light-rail transit network. These public-private partnership projects would be undertaken via open tenders involving domestic and foreign construction companies. The projects are estimated to cost RM5bn to RM8bn, with a targeted completion in 2020. (The Star)

Pavilion targets RM695m from IPO
Pavilion REIT Management SB launched the prospectus for Pavilion REIT with a proposed listing on the Main Market of Bursa Malaysia on 7 Dec 2011. Pavilion REIT will offer 790m units at an indicative retail price of RM0.88 per unit, raising gross proceeds of approximately RM695m from the IPO. The company plans to use a majority of the proceeds as part payment for the acquisition of the initial property portfolio while the remaining amount will be utilized as working capital and listing expenses. (Malaysian Reserve)

Gleneagles to open 2 more hospitals by 2014
Gleneagles Hospital, under its parent company Parkway Pantai Ltd, is set to open two more hospitals in Malaysia by 2014, at an approximate cost of RM700m. The two new hospitals, located in Iskandar Malaysia and Kota Kinabalu, are now seeing earthworks development and should be fully operational by 2014. The hospital in the Iskandar region will host an initial 150 beds but boast a total capacity of 300, while that in Kota Kinabalu will have 200. (BT)

Malton buys Gombak land for residential project
Malton has acquired a 56.05-acre parcel of land in Gombak, Selangor for a total consideration of RM105m (RM43 per sq ft) for a proposed residential development with an estimated GDV of RM500m. The company has entered into a sale and purchase agreement to acquire the land from Ukay Spring Development SB. (Financial Daily)

20111115 1011 Global Market Related News.

Asia Stocks Fall as Italian Yields Stoke Concern (Source: Bloomberg)
Asian stocks fell, paring yesterday’s advance, after Italian borrowing costs surged at a note sale, reviving concern Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis is spreading, damping investor confidence for riskier assets. Sony Corp. (6758), Japan’s No. 1 exporter of consumer electronics, fell 1.9 percent. Paladin Energy Ltd. (PDN), an Australian firm producing uranium in Africa, jumped 8.4 percent as Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard seeks to overturn a ban on uranium shipments to India. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped 0.3 percent to 118.38 as of 9:16 a.m. in Tokyo. The measure rose 1.2 percent yesterday, paring two weeks of losses.

U.S. Stocks Decline as European Debt Concerns Return; Boeing Shares Gain (Source: Bloomberg)
U.S. stocks declined, snapping a two-day advance in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, as an increase in Italian borrowing costs deepened concern Europe will struggle to contain its sovereign debt crisis. Morgan Stanley and Citigroup Inc. (C) fell more than 2.6 percent. Bank of America Corp. (BAC) slid 2.6 percent after agreeing to sell most of its China Construction Bank Corp. stake to boost capital. Bank of New York Mellon Corp. (BK) slid 4.5 percent as the world’s largest custody bank said it would book a charge of as much as $100 million this quarter. Boeing Co. (BA) added 1.5 percent after winning a record $26 billion order from Emirates. The S&P 500 retreated 1 percent to 1,251.78 at 4 p.m. New York time. The Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 74.70 points, or 0.6 percent, to 12,078.98. About 5.5 billion shares changed hands on U.S. exchanges, the lowest since April 25.

European Stocks Decline as Borrowing Costs Rise; Banks Retreat (Source: Bloomberg)
European stocks dropped as Italy’s borrowing costs rose after the nation sold 3 billion euros ($4.1 billion) of bonds at the highest yield since 1997. UniCredit SpA (UCG) dropped 6.2 percent after Italy’s largest bank approved a 7.5 billion-euro share sale. Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA (BBVA) led Spanish lenders lower as the nation’s borrowing costs climbed. Hochtief AG (HOT) plunged 11 percent after the construction company said the sale of its airport-operating business has been delayed. The benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 Index retreated 1 percent to 238.47 at the close in London, with all 19 industry groups declining. The cost of insuring against default on sovereign and corporate debt advanced, according to traders of credit-default swaps.

Japanese Stocks Decline as Surging Italian Yields Revive Europe Concern (Source: Bloomberg)
Japan’s Nikkei 225 (NKY) Stock Average fell for the first time in three days, after Italian and Spanish borrowing costs surged, reviving concern Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis is spreading and damping appetite for riskier assets. Nintendo Co., the video-game company that gets more than 40 percent of sales in Europe, sank 2 percent. Inpex Corp. (1605), Japan’s top energy explorer by market value, slid 2.6 percent after crude prices dropped yesterday. Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc. (8316), Japan’s second-biggest bank by market value, gained 2.7 percent after raising its full-year profit forecast. Olympus Corp. (7733) was poised to soar, extending yesterday’s surge after a report the scandal-hit company may avoid delisting. The Nikkei 225 declined 0.5 percent to 8,563.93 as of 10:30 a.m. in Tokyo, headed for its first drop in three days. The broader Topix index retreated 0.3 percent to 733.54.

Fed Economists: 2012 Recession Odds Top 50% (Source: Bloomberg)
The odds of a U.S. recession in early 2012 exceed 50 percent as a result of Europe’s debt crisis, according to researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. “Prudence suggests that the fragile state of the U.S. economy would not easily withstand turbulence coming across the Atlantic,” economist Travis Berge, research associate Early Elias and research advisor Oscar Jorda wrote in a paper released by the bank today. “A European sovereign debt default may well sink the United States back into recession.” The probability that the world’s largest economy will slip into another slump has increased since last year, when Berge and Jorda estimated a one-in-two chance such an event would occur toward the first six months of 2012.

Fed’s Fisher Sees U.S. Poised for Growth (Source: Bloomberg)
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Richard Fisher said the U.S. economy is “poised for growth” going into next year and that he sees a declining likelihood the central bank will need to ease further. “The direction we’re moving in is positive,” the policy maker said today in an interview from Bloomberg’s headquarters in New York. He said he expects gross domestic product to expand by 2.5 percent to 3 percent in the fourth quarter, “gradually getting better as we go through time.” Fisher’s comments contrast with those of Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, who predicted on Nov. 2 that the pace of recovery will be “frustratingly slow,” and with researchers at the San Francisco Fed, who project a better than 50 percent chance of recession early next year. The Dallas Fed president is among the most vocal critics of Fed policy, dissenting twice this year against moves to push down long-term rates and keep the benchmark U.S. interest rate low until at least June 2013.
He voted five times in 2008 in favor of tighter policy.

Treasuries Hold Gain on Italy Debt Losses; Gross Sees Low Rates (Source: Bloomberg)
Treasuries held a gain from yesterday as declines in Italian and Spanish bonds added to concern that Europe will struggle to contain a debt crisis that is threatening to slow global economic growth. The Federal Reserve will keep interest rates low “for a number of years” to support the U.S. economy, said Bill Gross, who runs the world’s biggest bond fund at Pacific Investment Management Co. Thirty-year bonds advanced yesterday after the Fed purchased securities maturing from 2036 to 2041 as part of its Operation Twist policy of swapping holdings of shorter-term Treasuries for longer maturities. “Concerns surrounding Europe are likely to keep yields from rising,” said Hitoshi Asaoka, a senior strategist in Tokyo at Mizuho Trust & Banking Co., part of Japan’s third-largest publicly traded bank. “Treasuries are being bought in a mild risk-off environment.”

China Wary of Choking on U.S. Dollar Driving Hong Kong Dim Sum Debt Sales (Source: Bloomberg)
The helicopter swooped over Hong Kong’s Victoria Harbor trailing a huge red-and-white banner: RMB SOVEREIGN BONDS. There were billboards on buses and banks and at the entrance to the cross-harbor tunnel. The city’s biggest sale of bonds in China’s currency, the renminbi, may not have blown away the man and woman on the street. Yet the burst of advertising in August did signal just how important the event was to the Beijing government and to the bankers and traders who feed off the Chinese economy, Bloomberg Markets magazine reports in its December issue. Nicknamed Dim Sum bonds after Hong Kong’s favorite dining pastime, the securities are the hottest financial innovation in town.

Shanghai Cuts Rates in Nation’s First Muni Bonds (Source: Bloomberg)
Shanghai may cut its borrowing costs by almost two percentage points as China allows local governments to sell bonds for the first time, helping policy makers reorganize 10.7 trillion yuan ($1.7 trillion) of debt. The city will probably sell 3.6 billion yuan of three-year notes at 3.15 percent and 3.5 billion yuan of five-year securities at 3.35 percent today, according to the median estimates in a Bloomberg survey of seven finance companies. Five-year bonds sold by companies set up by the city to fund infrastructure yield an average 5 percent, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Tax-exempt, top-rated five-year U.S. municipal debt yields 1.1 percent, according to a Bloomberg index.
The market for regional authorities’ debt, which hasn’t existed since the Communist Party took power in 1949, will require issuers to publish annual reports and stipulate clearer obligations than for the more than 6,000 companies set up by local governments to raise money for sewers, bridges and toll roads. China’s non-performing loans may surge to 12 percent in the next few years from about 1.8 percent at the end of September as many of the enterprises lack sufficient revenue to service debt, Credit Suisse Group AG said in an Oct. 12 report.

Japan Economy Expands at 6% Pace as Exports Drive Post-Earthquake Recovery (Source: Bloomberg)
Japan’s economy expanded for the first time in four quarters as exports recovered from a record earthquake, an expansion that is already slowing because of weakening overseas demand. Gross domestic product grew at an annualized 6 percent in the three months ending Sept. 30, the fastest pace in 1 1/2- years, the Cabinet Office said today in Tokyo. At 543 trillion yen ($7 trillion), economic output was back to levels seen before the March 11 earthquake, the report showed. Japan’s return to growth after three quarters of contraction was driven by companies including Toyota Motor Corp. making up for lost output from the disaster. A sustained rebound will depend on how much reconstruction demand can offset a slowdown in global growth as Europe’s debt crisis damps global confidence and an appreciating yen erodes profits.

India’s Inflation Exceeds 9% for 11th Month, Reducing Scope for Rate Pause (Source: Bloomberg)
India’s inflation exceeded 9 percent for an 11th straight month, crimping the central bank’s scope to keep interest rates unchanged and shield the economy from a faltering global recovery. The benchmark wholesale-price index rose 9.73 percent in October from a year earlier, the commerce ministry said in a statement in New Delhi today. That compares with a 9.72 percent jump in September and the median forecast of 9.65 percent in a Bloomberg News survey of 19 economists. Asian nations from Indonesia to South Korea are either cutting rates or keeping them on hold to protect expansion as Europe’s debt crisis threatens to trigger a global slump. India’s central bank last month signaled it’s nearing the end of monetary tightening, provided inflation slows, after it raised rates for the 13th time since mid-March 2010.
“Prices are not coming off,” said Madan Sabnavis, chief economist at Mumbai-based ratings company Credit Analysis & Research Ltd. “The RBI will have to probably revisit its guidance if inflation remains elevated.”

Indonesia Sells $1B Sukuk at Half 2009 Yield (Source: Bloomberg)
Indonesia sold $1 billion of seven- year Shariah-compliant bonds at half the borrowing cost of its previous sale in 2009, reflecting investor optimism that the nation may win an investment-grade debt rating. The dollar-denominated securities sold at 4 percent, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The sale targeted a rate of 4.25 percent, said a person familiar with the transaction, who asked not to be identified as the details are private. The nation’s debut sukuk, $650 million worth of five-year debt, was issued in April 2009 at 8.8 percent. Indonesia’s foreign-exchange reserves have more than doubled since 2009, while the government of President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono is targeting economic growth of 6.5 percent this year, the fastest since the Asian financial crisis in 1998. Standard & Poor’s raised Indonesia’s foreign-currency rating to BB+ in April, with a positive outlook, signaling the country may be on the verge of winning investment-grade status.

Argentina Cuts Reserve Requirements After Deposits Tumble by $645 Million (Source: Bloomberg)
Argentina’s central bank cut dollar reserve requirements after bank deposits plunged $645 million last week following the government’s moves to restrict foreign exchange purchases in South America’s second-biggest economy. Argentine banks will be required to hold just 20 percent of their dollar deposits at the central bank as reserves, Banco Central de la Republica Argentina said in a Nov. 11 statement. Banks previously had to keep all dollar savings not being used to finance exporters at the central bank. President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner’s efforts to slow capital flight since her Oct. 23 re-election by ramping up oversight of foreign exchange purchases, ordering energy and mining companies to repatriate export revenue and telling insurance companies to bring investments back to the country sent investors to banks to withdraw dollars.

Russian Growth Accelerated in Third Quarter for First Time Since Last Year (Source: Bloomberg)
Russia’s economic growth accelerated in the third quarter for the first time since last year as companies stepped up investment and bank lending buoyed consumer spending. Gross domestic product expanded 4.8 percent from a year earlier, the fastest pace since the second quarter of 2010, after increasing 3.4 percent in the previous three months, the Federal Statistics Service said in an e-mailed statement today. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of 14 economists was 5 percent. The Economy Ministry estimated it at 5.1 percent. The world’s largest energy exporter is counting on domestic consumption to balance shrinking demand abroad as Europe fights to staunch a debt crisis. Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, who will run for president next year, is seeking annual growth of between 6 percent and 7 percent and turn the economy into one of the world’s five largest.

Euro Maintains Decline Before German Confidence Data, Spanish Bill Auction (Source: Bloomberg)
The euro held losses before a report forecast to show German investor confidence fell to a three-year low as Europe’s debt crisis threatens to curb economic growth. The 17-nation currency weakened against half of its 16 major peers as Spain prepares to sell up to 4 billion euros ($5.5 billion) of bonds on Nov. 17 after Italy’s borrowing costs surged to the highest level since 1997 at a note sale yesterday. Australia’s dollar snapped a decline from yesterday after the nation’s central bank said in minutes to its Nov. 1 meeting that there was a case for keeping interest rates unchanged even though policy makers lowered the benchmark. “A poor reading is expected for November, but probably the risk is that we get an even weaker result on the ZEW survey and that just adds to the poor sentiment over Europe,” said Besa Deda, chief economist at St. George Bank Ltd. in Sydney. “In the short term you must be bearish euro given that the sovereign-debt crisis hasn’t been contained and downside risks remain.”

20111115 1010 Global Commodities Related News.

Speculators Lift Bullish Raw-Material Bets to Seven-Week High: Commodities (Source: Bloomberg)
Speculators increased wagers on rising commodity prices to a seven-week high as signs of resilient U.S. growth boosted prospects for demand. Money managers increased combined net-long positions across 18 U.S. futures and options by 5.3 percent to 840,972 contracts in the week ended Nov. 8, Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. That’s the highest since Sept. 20. The Standard & Poor’s GSCI Index of 24 raw materials has jumped 12 percent since Sept. 30, rebounding from two straight quarters of losses. U.S. consumer confidence topped forecasts this month, data showed on Nov. 11. Reports this week may signal retail sales rose in October and manufacturing accelerated. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index gained in five of the past six weeks. The outlook for commodity demand has recovered since September, when the GSCI tumbled 12 percent, the biggest monthly drop since November 2008, on concern that Europe’s debt crisis would send the global economy into another recession.

Goldman Lowers 12-Month Forecast for Commodity Gains to 15%, Led by Metals (Source: Bloomberg)
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. lowered its forecast for commodity gains in the next year to 15 percent after correctly predicting the climb in prices since the beginning of last month. The S&P GSCI Enhanced Commodity Index will be led by gains in industrial metals in the next year, Jeffrey Currie, a Goldman analyst in London, wrote in a report today. The bank, which lowered its commodities forecast from 20 percent last month, says copper will gain 22 percent and London oil 10 percent. Goldman correctly advised investors to sell oil and copper in April and turned more bullish the following month before prices rebounded. It lowered its commodities outlook after the GSCI Enhanced gauge jumped 15 percent since Oct. 4. Raw materials have gained as European leaders attempted to contain the region’s debt crisis and the Federal Reserve signaled more stimulus may be available to spur growth.

Farmers Less Productive, Competitive If EU Plan Goes Ahead - Lobby (Source: CME)
European farmers will be less productive and competitive due to increased costs related to the Common Agricultural Policy if new European Commission proposals go ahead, farming lobby group Copa-Cogeca said. Copa President Gerd Sonnleitner said the proposals, which were discussed in Brussels, will simply increase red tape for farmers and national authorities. The European Commission last month presented plans to limit payments to big farms and set aside more land, as part of changes to its $75 billion-a-year farm subsidy program. The aid makes up two-fifths of the European Union's annual budget and is hotly debated when the EU writes its budget every seven years. Sonnleitner said the obligation to set aside at least 7% of arable land to "ecological focus areas," such as forests or buffer strips, will increase farmer's costs further and makes no sense in the wake of growing world food demand.
"Proposals to cap or put an upper ceiling on direct payments received by bigger individual farmers also penalizes competitivity," he said. However, the EU has come under criticism over the large amount of subsidies allocated to corporate mega-farms. Currently, a quarter of the largest farms receive 74% of the money. Officials now face more than a year of wrangling to shape the final proposals into reforms that will be implemented after 2013, with the Commission's new proposal forming the basis for discussions. Cogeca President Paolo Bruni said the CAP must focus on improving the economic performance of farming families and agri-cooperatives to enable them to get a better return from the market. "What is needed is a CAP which ensures a dynamic, innovative, competitive and more profitable EU agriculture and agri-food sector," he said.

Canadian Farmland Value Rising At Accelerated Pace (Source: CME)
Canadian farmland gained in value at an accelerated pace this year as crop prices rose and interest rates fell. According to Farm Credit Canada, farmland values rose by 7.4% in the first six months of 2011, the fastest rate since 2008 and more than triple the pace seen in the first half of 2010, when farmland rose by 2.1%. Values rose by 3.0% in the last half of 2010. The increase was led by Saskatchewan, where farmland rose by an average of 11.6% in the first half of this year. FCC noted that land values in Saskatchewan had lagged other provinces until recently. As well, ongoing strength in commodity prices has added support. The average national price of farmland has increased by about 8% annually since the commodity prices began to rise in 2006. The last time the average value decreased was in 2000, when it dropped by 0.6%

Corn (Source: CME)
US corn futures end lower, with the December contract hitting a 1-month low amid weak export demand and outside pressures. Worries about Italy's debt, reflected in weaker equities and a stronger dollar, weighed on commodities generally while lackluster export demand added to corn's weakness. But losses were limited by domestic cash prices, which have been strong, with basis at record levels in some areas, the University of Illinois reports. December CBOT corn ends down 5c at $6.33 1/2 per bushel.

Wheat (Source: CME)
U.S. wheat futures end lower on outside market pressure and weak export demand. Worries about Europe's debt crisis, which has spread to Italy, weighed on commodities including corn, as equities fell and the dollar climbed. Meanwhile wheat is being pressured by poor export demand and talk of U.S. imports, which traders say is a sign prices are too high. But near-term U.S. cash prices have remained relatively firm, and nearby Dec. CBOT wheat gained several cents versus deferred contracts. Dec. CBOT wheat ends down 1c to $6.15 3/4, while KCBT Dec. wheat ends down 12c to $6.92. MGEX Dec. wheat ends down 6 3/4c to $9.27 1/2.

Rice (Source: CME)
U.S. rice futures halt their free-fall, ending mixed after falling more than $2 in recent weeks. Poor export demand has pressured prices, outweighing worries about Asian crops damaged by floods. Jan. CBOT rice ends flat at $15.22 per hundredweight.

Soy rises for 2nd day, wheat rebounds on euro zone hopes
SINGAPORE, Nov 14 (Reuters) - U.S. soy rose for a second straight session, while wheat recovered from a one-month low on hopes that new leaders in Italy and Greece will take steps to rescue their nations from bankruptcy.  
"It is the macro economic sentiment which is supporting grains and soybeans," said Ker Chung Yang, an analyst at Phillip Futures in Singapore. "Prices are getting attractive for buyers like China to stock up. Lunar new year is just two months away and they have to buy now."

Australia wheat crop faces quality risks -Cargill
SYDNEY, Nov 14 (Reuters) - Australia's 2011/12 wheat harvest, now gathering pace, runs the risk of quality downgrades following wet weather although overall quality is expected to be an improvement on last year, according to Cargill Inc's Australian grain marketing chief.
"We've still got a fair way to go so at this stage there doesn't seem to be too many problems in eastern Australia although in Western Australia there's been a few issues," Mitch Morison, commercial general manager of Cargill's  Australian grain trading arm, said in a telephone interview.

Cargill boosts Australia capacity ahead of harvest
SYDNEY, Nov 14 (Reuters) - Cargill Inc is boosting its grain handling capacity in Australia ahead of an expected bumper harvest in the country, the world's third-biggest wheat exporter, the U.S. head-quartered commodities giant said on Monday.
Cargill, one of Australia's largest wheat exporters following its recent purchase of the grain trading arm of AWB Ltd, said it would spend more than A$10 million ($10.3 million) on its "Grainflow" receival sites in eastern and southern Australia.

Cuba seeks Brazil aid to boost farm production
SAO PAULO, Nov 11 (Reuters) - Cuba is seeking a credit of $200 million from Brazil to import agricultural machinery and technology in hopes of increasing food output and reducing its reliance on imports, a Brazilian official said on Friday.
The communist island thinks the aid will allow it to double its production of grains, which would enable it to meet its domestic demand, said Francesco Pierri, chief international advisor in Brazil's Ministry of Agrarian Development.

Informa ups US 2012 corn seeding forecast, cuts soy
CHICAGO, Nov 11 (Reuters) - Analytical firm Informa Economics raised its forecast of U.S. 2012 corn plantings to 94.0 million acres from its previous forecast last month of 93.1 million, trade sources said Friday.
Informa trimmed its forecast of U.S. 2012 soybean seedings to 76.1 million acres from its previous projection of 77.0 million.

Rains early next week to slow final U.S. harvest
CHICAGO, Nov 11 (Reuters) - Rainfall early next week will slow the final harvest of U.S. corn and soybeans while the Plains wheat crop enters winter dormancy in better shape due to recent rains, an agricultural meteorologist said on Friday.
"Showers will expand from the far southeastern Plains into the Delta and Ohio Valley from Sunday into Tuesday and again at the middle of the six- to 10-day and 11- to 15-day periods," said Joel Widenor, meteorologist for Commodity Weather Group.

Ukraine exports 363,000 T maize Nov 1-9
KIEV, Nov 11 (Reuters) - Ukraine exported 363,000 tonnes of maize in Nov. 1-9, mostly to Egypt, analyst ProAgro said on Friday.
The consultancy said Ukraine exported 157,300 tonnes of maize to Egypt, 76,600 to Algeria, 61,000 to Syria. It also sent maize to Spain and Jordan.

Plentiful Grains Supply To Weigh On Prices Into Early 2012 (Source: CME)
Global grains prices are likely to face further downward pressure in the coming months as many producers are harvesting record crops, giving importers enough origins to choose from. The strong recovery in production has been a response to prices that hit 30-month highs around February, encouraging farmers to increase acreage. "Grains production has turned out to be much better than we thought earlier this season. Farmers wouldn't have produced the large volumes if prices weren't attractive," said Abdolreza Abbassian, secretary of the Intergovernmental Group for Grains under the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization. FAO's Food Price Index hit an 11-month low in October with the organization now estimating 2011 global cereals output at a record 2.325 billion tons. Abbassian said Russia, China, Ukraine and South America have produced more grains in response to higher prices.
Global wheat prices will remain depressed due to the large crops in Australia and the Black Sea region and prices are likely to move in the $6.00/bushel-$6.50/bushel range, said Karl Setzer an Iowa-based analyst with MaxYield Cooperative. Many traditional buyers of U.S. corn are buying feed grade wheat from Australia and the Black Sea region, said Setzer. Due to high prices, Ukraine is growing corn like never before, not only switching from other crops but also bringing in additional land, Abbassian said. The International Grains Council expects Ukraine's corn production in the crop year started July 1 to rise 57% to 18 million tons. Abbassian said it may even touch 20 million tons. "Farmers have responded to high prices and they will do the same next year, so we could be looking at a more bearish picture in the second half of 2012 when the next crop arrives," Senior Agriculture Economist at Kansas State University, Jay O' Neil, said.
It is an excellent situation to stay in business because even though grains prices have declined from their peaks, they are still remunerative and higher than last year, said Abbassian. The impact of a record Brazilian soybean crop is continuing to be felt in the international market, said Victor Thianpiriya, a Melbourne-based agricultural analyst with ANZ Banking Group.

New Zealand: Put Rice In Talks (Source: CME)
Japan must put its main staple, rice, on the table if it wishes to join talks over the Trans-Pacific Partnership free-trade agreement, New Zealand Trade Minister Tim Groser said. "The negotiation must include rice," he said in an interview on Sunday, if the TPP is to set a comprehensive market-opening example for the rest of the region. Mr. Groser was speaking on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Hawaii after a disagreement over TPP talks arose between Tokyo and Washington. Japan objected to a White House news release's assertion that Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda had committed to "put all goods, as well as services, on the negotiating table for trade liberalization." Japan said this overstated the commitment made by Mr. Noda, whose decision Friday to participate in TPP negotiations was expected to expose him to a political backlash when he returned to Japan.
Rice is one of the few crops in which Japan is self-sufficient, and opponents of the TPP argue it would destroy the country's agricultural sector and reduce food self-sufficiency to 13% from the current 39%. Emphasizing that the TPP is seeking a "comprehensive" market opening, without exceptions, Mr. Groser said he supports the White House statement -- though he added that other countries recognize the agricultural sector, especially rice, is sensitive for Japan. For such sensitive items, he said, rapid liberalization is impossible. "It's a question of gradual, progressive liberalization over a period of many years," Mr. Groser said. "A period of 10 years is not out of the question." The vigorous debate in Japan over participation in the TPP is encouraging, Mr. Groser said: "I am optimistic that we will find a way in which the Japanese government in the future will be able to confirm a formal decision to start formal negotiations. Politically, I am extremely optimistic."
The nine TPP member countries agreed Saturday on the broad outline of a market-opening framework. U.S. President Barack Obama said that the TPP is aimed at establishing "a comprehensive, next-generation regional agreement that liberalizes trade and investment, and addresses new and traditional trade issues and 21st-century challenges." Success with the TPP, Mr. Groser said, requires finding a balance: Upholding high standards of market opening while still attracting other Asia-Pacific countries to become members. "You don't want to establish a model inside the TPP that is so ridiculously difficult that the rest of the world says: 'We can't join this. This is too difficult,'" he said. At the same time, the group wants to avoid sending a false signal to prospective TPP participants that "we are prepared to dumb this agreement down just to get wider participation," he said.

Global Food Crops Need Urgent Protection From Climate Change - FAO (Source: CME)
Traditional food crops across the globe are in urgent need of protection from climate change and other environmental stresses, the United Nations' food body said, adding that countries need to conserve plant varieties for generations to come. "The conservation and sustainable use of plant genetic resources for food and agriculture are key to ensuring that the world will produce enough food to feed its growing population," said the Food and Agriculture Organization Director-General Jacques Diouf. Diouf added that the FAO's gene pool of more than 1.5 million samples of plant genetic material "is possibly our most important tool for adapting agriculture to climate change in the years to come." The International Treaty on Plant Genetic Resources for Food and Agriculture is supporting farmers and breeders in 21 developing countries adapt key crops to new conditions brought on by climate change, floods, droughts, pests and diseases.
"The effects of climate change on agriculture do not respect national borders, they cover entire agro-ecological zones," said Shakeel Bhatti, Secretary of the International Treaty. "For this reason, this portfolio of projects is taking a pioneering approach in generating a global knowledge base. Some of these projects will help us to establish clear priorities and action plans across borders for future actions," he added. Diouf welcomed the $6 million project and called on countries to develop specific policies to make wider use of plant varieties.

Wheat Shippers Battle for Sales as Global Grain Glut Expands: Commodities (Source: Bloomberg)
France may lose its place as the second-biggest wheat exporter after failing to win more than a dozen tenders in Egypt, the world’s biggest buyer, as shipments from Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan overwhelm markets. Egypt favored cheaper supply from the Black Sea region in the past 17 tenders and cargoes to northern Africa from France’s Rouen, Europe’s biggest grain-export hub, fell to a four-month low in the week ended Nov. 2, port data show. France’s crop office expects a 23 percent drop in shipments in the 12 months ending in June, the most in at least a decade.
That’s reversing last season’s trend, when French cargoes jumped 16 percent to a record as Russia and Ukraine cut sales to ensure domestic supply. Prices that reached a three-year high in February are plunging after both countries eased restrictions. Output is also expanding elsewhere and the United Nations expects the biggest-ever global harvest. Wheat may drop another 20 percent in Paris by May, said Greg Grow, director of agribusiness at Archer Financial Services Inc. in Chicago.

Archer Daniels Midland Plans Biodiesel Plant In Alberta, Canada (Source: CME)
Archer Daniels Midland Co. said it plans to build a 70-million gallon biodiesel plant in Lloydminster, in Alberta, Canada, increasing the grain processor's North American biodiesel production capacity by 50%. The new plant will be located adjacent to the company's existing canola-crushing facility, which the company is also expanding. The biodiesel plant also will be used to fulfill renewable diesel requirements in Canada, which mandates that all diesel fuel and heating oil sold in the country must contain at least 2% biodiesel. Construction is expected to start in the spring of 2012, with completion slated for the end of 2013. Company Vice President Mike Livergood said the new facility will help support canola-crush margins and capacity utilization.
The Decatur, Ill., company is one of the world's largest grain traders and processors. Earlier this month, Archer Daniels Midland said its fiscal first-quarter earnings rose on strong grain exports from the Black Sea region, even as high corn prices limited profits in its sweetener business. Shares were trading up 6 cents at $29.75. The stock is down 1.1% year to date.

India cautious as its mills seek big sugar exports
MUMBAI/LONDON, Nov 4 (Reuters) - Sugar market heavyweight India is likely to delay half of this year's expected one million tonnes of unrestricted exports until early 2012 due to output delays, a decision that would protect Indian consumers and limit the country's impact on world prices.      
India, the world's top sugar consumer and biggest producer after Brazil, can cause big gyrations in international sugar futures prices because of its clout as either an exporter or an importer, depending on the progress of its crop.

India's Oct oilmeal exports down 29 pct y/y
NEW DELHI, Nov 4 (Reuters) - India's oilmeal exports fell 29 percent in October, its first fall in a year, a leading trade body said on Friday, on lower local supplies of soybean and a temporary fall in demand from its traditional buyers in Southeast Asia.
Oilmeal sale from India, Asia's top supplier of the animal feedstocks, was at 353,300 tonnes in October as against 498,159 tonnes a year earlier.

Cane pricing dispute may delay India sugar exports
MUMBAI, Nov 3 (Reuters) - A second tranche of sugar exports from India could be delayed because of a dispute over cane pricing that is preventing the government from getting clarity on final production figures needed to decide how much overseas sales to allow.
The dispute may not affect a first decision on exports that is likely next week given high inventory and an ample summer-sown crop, but further sales will depend on how fast farmers and millers agree on cane prices and high food inflation easing.

ICE markets firmer as euro stress pauses
LONDON, Nov 14 (Reuters) - ICE cocoa, sugar and coffee futures rose in sympathy with financial markets in early trading as investors greeted the appointments of technocatic leaders in euro zone debt hot spots Italy and Greece with cautious optimism.
ICE March cocoa was up $23 or 0.9 percent at $2,582 a tonne at 0938 GMT, just above last week's 2-1/2-year trough. The contract had dipped to $2,544 on Friday, the lowest level for the second month since July 2009. Ample supplies from West Africa limited upside price potential.

China 2011 cotton output seen up 21 pct at 7.55 mln T -think tank
BEIJING, Nov 14 (Reuters) - China's cotton output in 2011 is expected to increase 21 percent from a year earlier to 7.55 million tonnes, a government think tank said on Monday.
The estimate by the information center under the China National Cotton Reserves Corp, given in a report published on www.cncotton.cn, is both higher than an earlier government estimate of 7.2 million tonnes and an industry survey of 7.4 million tonnes.

Brazil's coffee consumption seen overtaking US
PLAYA HERRADURA, Costa Rica , Nov 11 (Reuters) - Brazil could overtake the United States in overall coffee consumption in the next few years as increasing wealth in Brazil is driving a rise in locals' thirst for espressos and cappuccinos, according to the country's coffee association head.
Brazil, the world's top coffee grower, could consume more coffee than the United States in "two to three years," Nathan Herszkowicz, executive director of Brazil's coffee industry association Abic told Reuters on Thursday.

Europe coffee buyers upset at Liffe delivery delays
LONDON, Nov 11 (Reuters) - Coffee trade houses and roasters in Europe are fuming over delays of several months in getting supplies out of warehouses in Antwerp and say the Liffe exchange is failing to meet its mandate as supplier of last resort.
Some two thirds of global stocks of robusta coffee certified by NYSE Liffe  are concentrated in a few warehouses in Antwerp, creating a bottleneck that is forcing some coffee firms to wait until January to get deliveries.

Bumper Brazil crop to ease arabica price -analyst
PLAYA HERRADURA, Costa Rica, Nov 12 (Reuters) - Brazil could produce up to 59 million 60-kg (132-pound) bags of coffee in the 2012 harvest, helping ease the international price of arabicas from multi-year highs, a global commodities analyst said on Saturday.
The estimate would be a nearly 40 percent increase from the 43.15 million bags Brazil produced last year, as the world's top coffee producer enters an up year in its up-and-down harvest cycle.

Colombia coffee output falls for 7th straight month
PITALITO, Colombia, Nov 11 (Reuters) - Colombia's coffee output fell for the seventh straight month in October, dropping 19 percent due to heavy rains and the roya fungus, the growers federation said on Friday.
The world's top producer of high-quality Arabica beans has seen output drop since 2009 and struggled to regain historical production levels because of bad weather and a renovation program to replace aging trees.

Coal India Q2 net lower than forecast
Nov 13 (Reuters) - State-run Coal India , the world's largest coal miner, posted a lower-than-expected quarterly net profit of 25.93 billion rupees ($517.3 million) as a price increase in February failed to boost profitability despite higher-than-expected sales.
Coal India, which produces nearly 80 percent of the coal in India, has been unable to meet growing power demand in Asia's third-largest economy from power and steel projects.

Colombia coal output soars 27.8 pct in Q3-regulator
BOGOTA, Nov 11 (Reuters) - Coal production in Colombia, the world's No. 4 coal exporter, jumped in the third quarter to 23 million tonnes, up nearly 28 percent from the same period last year, the country's mining regulator said on Friday.
Colombia's coal industry is dominated by big thermal producers with their own port and rail facilities such as Glencore, Drummond and Cerrejon, which is owned equally by BHP Billiton , Anglo American  and Xstrata .

Euro Coal-Prices rise 50 c/T with oil, euro gains
LONDON, Nov 11 (Reuters) - Prompt physical coal prices moved higher by a marginal 50 cents a tonne on Friday although few trades were reported, in line with gains in oil and the euro after Italy's Senate approved economic reforms aimed at restoring investor confidence .
"Generally it is looking more bearish, very little happening in Europe, India's not buying and Chinese interest is limited," one utility trader said.

Asia Coal-Prices fall as buyers remain aloof
SHANGHAI, Nov 11 (Reuters) - Australia's thermal coal prices, a benchmark for Asia, fell to $116 a tonne on a lack of spot purchases from major buyers in North Asia, while poor interest from China cast a pall on near-term prices.
Thermal coal on the global COAL Newcastle index  for the week to date closed at $116 per tonne on Friday, down from $116.95 a week earlier. China's benchmark steam coal prices stayed flat at the second week at 853 yuan ($134.40).

China crude imports may finally head higher: Clyde Russell
--Clyde Russell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.--
SINGAPORE, Nov 14 (Reuters) - China's imports of crude oil have defied predictions of an imminent increase for several months, but it finally seems the stars are aligned for a gain in coming months.
Data last week showed October imports at 4.9 million barrels a day, down 1.6 percent from September and the fifth consecutive month below the five million-barrel mark.

Brent climbs over $114 on euro debt progress hopes
LONDON, Nov 14 (Reuters) - Brent crude oil rose above $114 per barrel on hopes new governments in Italy and Greece would prevent their economies from collapsing and help avoid financial meltdown in the euro zone, offering the chance of renewed growth.
"Markets are optimistic that the critical deadlock is over and that something will be done to solve the euro zone debt crisis," said Carsten Fritsch, commodities analyst at Commerzbank in Frankfurt.

Oil Trades Near Two-Day Low on Europe Debt Concern as U.S. Supplies Shrink (Source: Bloomberg)
Oil traded near the lowest level in two days as speculation that Europe will struggle to contain its debt crisis countered signs of declining fuel stockpiles in the U.S., the world’s largest crude consumer. Futures were little changed after falling 0.9 percent yesterday. Italy’s borrowing costs rose to the highest level since June 1997, deepening concern that Europe’s crisis is worsening. U.S. crude and fuel inventories probably shrank for a second week, according to a Bloomberg News survey. Hedge funds boosted bullish bets on Brent oil last week, data from London- based ICE Futures Europe showed. “There is still a lot of uncertainty over Europe,” said Ken Hasegawa, a commodity-derivatives trading manager at Newedge Group in Tokyo, who forecasts futures will trade between $95 and $100 a barrel in the near term. “Last night’s decline was a correction but I think the downside will be limited from a technical point of view.”

Aluminum Production Worldwide May Drop as 15% of Capacity Shut, Rusal Says (Source: Bloomberg)
Aluminum output may drop in the first half of next year as producers increase idled plants to as much as 15 percent of global capacity, said United Co. Rusal, the world’s largest supplier. China, Europe and the U.S. may shut down plants, Rusal First Deputy Chief Executive Officer Vladislav Soloviev told reporters in Moscow. Unless prices rise from current levels, 10 percent to 15 percent of capacity may be shut, Soloviev said after Rusal reported earnings. A 22 percent slump in prices from their 2011 peak of $2,797 a metric ton means 30 percent of producers aren’t profitable, Rusal said yesterday. When demand and prices weakened in 2009, smelters curbed supply by about 5 percent in the first half of the year, according to the International Aluminium Institute. Futures rallied 37 percent the following six months.

Iron Ore-Spot eyeing further gains on fewer cargoes
SINGAPORE, Nov 14 (Reuters) - Iron ore may stretch its winning streak to a third week, supported by Chinese buying interest and tight supply in the spot market as traders withhold some cargoes, waiting for prices to rise further.
The steelmaking raw material has gained nearly 18 percent in the past 10 trading days as steel mills in China, the world's biggest iron ore buyer, replenished inventories after prices fell more than 30 percent in October.

China imported iron ore stocks up 1.5 pct in week ending Nov 11
SHANGHAI, Nov 11 (Reuters) - Inventories of imported iron ore at major Chinese ports rose 1.5 percent this week to end at 96.3 million tonnes, up for the fourth consecutive week, data from industry consultancy Mysteel showed on Friday.
Shipments from India, which has imposed a ban on large-scale mining and exports from the world's third-largest iron ore producer, fell around 2 percent from last week, as the higher freight rates and export duties also discouraged exports.

Baltic index falls, ship supply pressure weighs
LONDON, Nov 11 (Reuters) - The Baltic Exchange's main sea freight index, which tracks rates to ship dry commodities, turned negative on Friday with a growing surplus of available vessels hitting sentiment.
The overall index fell 5 points or 0.27 percent to 1,835 points having risen for two sessions previously. Prior to the move higher on Wednesday, it had fallen for ten consecutive sessions and dropped to its lowest in two months earlier this week.
Shipping slump to deepen in 2012 -Citi
LONDON, Nov 11 (Reuters) - Prospects for dry shipping are set to remain poor for two to three years as the sector struggles with a glut of vessels, while crude tankers face more pain in 2012 as economic problems add to supply pressures, Citigroup's shipping chief said.  
China's transportation minister said last week the global shipping sector was in a downturn even worse than during the 2008 financial crisis, with the outlook for the industry made increasingly uncertain by euro zone debt turmoil.

20111115 1009 Soy Oil & Palm Oil Related News.

ITS CPO export up 10.5% to 801,463 tonnes for the period of 1~15 Nov 2011.
SGS CPO export up 11.6% to 802,917 tonnes for the period of 1~15 Nov 2011.

Soybeans (Source: CME)
US soybean futures end higher for second consecutive session, driven by speculation of fresh export demand from China and technical buying. Traders are hopeful China will aggressively source soybeans near term, similar to early October when China was an active buyer at similar price levels, analysts say. Technical buying added support, as traders viewed futures as oversold after prices establish near-term lows last week. Firm cash prices aided the gains, allowing futures to remain immune to weakness in external markets that weighed on corn and wheat prices, analysts add. CBOT Jan soy ended up 2 3/4c at $11.78 1/4/bushel.

Soybean Meal/Oil (Source: CME)
Soy-product futures end mixed, with soyoil climbing on spillover support from soybeans and fundamentally bullish inventory data in NOPA's October soy-crush report. But soymeal ended lower, succumbing to pressure from soyoil/soymeal spreading and signs of slow domestic meal demand in the NOPA report. CBOT December soyoil rises 0.24c to 51.22c/pound while December soymeal dropped 30c to $299.20/short ton.

India Sept vegoil imports up 11.6 pct m/m
NEW DELHI, Oct 14 (Reuters) - Festive demand and lower global prices drove up India's monthly vegetable oil imports by more than 11 percent to 912,341 tonnes in September, a leading trade body said on Friday, higher than the average forecast in a Reuters poll.  
But the imports in September were 5 percent lower compared with the year-ago period, said the Mumbai-based Solvent Extractors' Association of India in a statement.

India could burn fingers with aid to domestic palm refiners
KUALA LUMPUR/NEW DELHI, Oct 7 (Reuters) - India's plan to hike a domestic levy on refined palm oil, designed to protect its refiners from cheaper exports by top palm oil producer Indonesia, will backfire in the absence of  rival suppliers to meet the appetite of the south Asian nation.
The world's top edible oil buyer could end up spending more on Indonesian crude palm oil , which has risen as high as $84 over benchmark Malaysian futures  after Indonesia raised taxes on the crude in the middle of September.

India open to rice sale to Indonesia, seeks palm oil duty cut
NEW DELHI, Nov 2 (Reuters) - India is willing to sell 500,000 tonnes of rice to Indonesia but also wants the Southeast Asian country to cut its export tax on crude palm oil which has threatened the domestic refining industry.  
"My ministry has no objections in exporting 500,000 tonnes of rice to Indonesia from government stocks," Food Minister K.V. Thomas said after meeting Indonesian officials here just a month after trade ministers discussed the issues in Jakarta.

Palm at near 5-mth high on favourable fundamentals
JAKARTA, Nov 14 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures climbed to a near five-month high as sentiment on euro zone debt problems improved, with supply and demand fundamentals offering further support for the edible oil.
"The market is pretty firm," said a Kuala Lumpur-based trader. "Everything is up because the sovereign debt issue in Europe abated temporarily."

China 2011/12 soy imports seen staying robust -traders
BEIJING, Nov 14 (Reuters) - China, the world's top soy buyer, will continue to increase imports of the oilseed in 2011/2012 to meet rising demand from animal feed production, although releases by state reserves could weigh on the numbers, traders said.
Fei Zhonghai, a trading executive with state-owned COFCO Co. Ltd, estimated imports in 2011/12 would hit 58.5 million tonnes.

Rain advances Argentine 2011/12 soy planting -gov't
BUENOS AIRES, Nov 11 (Reuters) - Argentine farmers made quick progress planting 2011/12 corn due to recent rains that provided  plenty of moisture to soils, the Agriculture Ministry said on Friday.
Argentina is a global top soymeal and soyoil exporter and the No. 3 soybean supplier. The government says farmers will produce between 52 million and 53 million tonnes this season.

Indian farmers start oilseeds, pulses sowing
Nov 11 (Reuters) - Indian farmers have started sowing of winter-sown oilseeds and so far have covered 5.045 million hectares in 2011/12 season, up just 1 percent on year, the farm ministry said on Friday.
Area under rapeseed stood at 4.418 million hectares compared to 4.211 million hectares the year ago.