Friday, November 30, 2012

20121130 1215 Palm Oil Related News.

ITS CPO export up 3.9% to 1,663,092 tonnes for the period of 1~230 Nov 2012.

POLL-Malaysian average palm oil prices seen falling 17 pct in 2013 0#FCPO: BWPT.JK SMAR.JK - RTRS
30-Nov-2012 11:30
NUSA DUA, Nov 30 (Reuters) - A Reuters survey on analysts and traders polled at a conference in Indonesia's island of Bali showed average palm oil prices in 2013 are seen to fall to 2,500 ringgit ($820) per tonne, down 17.1 percent from 3,016 ringgit calculated so far for 2012.

HIGHLIGHTS-Analysts call the palm oil market for 2013 0#FCPO: - RTRS
30-Nov-2012 11:10
(Adds more quotes for Oil World)
NUSA DUA, Indonesia Nov 30 (Reuters) - Following are comments by key analysts at a palm oil industry conference in the Indonesian island of Bali:

"I repeat, the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives futures on the 3rd position need to trade over a period of 4 to 6 weeks at a level of 2,200 ringgit in order to attract massive energy demand so as to reduce and clear stocks. I don’t really expect Malaysian bulls to heed my advice."
"So I am predicting crude palm oil (CPO) futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives (BMD) exchange to trade in a range between 2300 and 2600 from now until February 2013. This will ensure high stock levels in both countries but particularly in Malaysia."
"If India imposes a 10 percent import duty on CPO and a 20 percent import duty on Refined Palm products as I anticipate it will, then Palm futures will break down. We shall have to watch that situation very closely. Otherwise I expect the 2300-2600 range to hold for a fairly long period of time."
"Overall I expect vegetable oil prices to remain range-bound in the first half of the year and to begin a major bear market in the second half."

"It will be seen that incremental demand will exceed incremental supply. However it must be borne in mind that we start the new oil year with the heaviest stocks in history.
"The massive over-hang from the previous year will cushion the impact of the lower production of vegetable oils in the first half of the new oil year."
"In the second half of the year, from March onwards the recovery in soft oil production and the anticipation of big crops to be harvested will prevent any thoughts of a price rally."

"India’s Kharif oilseed harvest was somewhat affected by drought. The omens for the winter sown crop are good. If all goes well, India should harvest a Rape-Mustard crop of about 6.5 million tonnes."
"Overall India’s production of vegetable oils should expand for the next oil year mainly on account of a higher mustard crop. The most important point to note is that India started the new Oil Year on 1 November 2012 with record opening stocks (port stocks plus internal pipeline) of 1.65 million tonnes."
"Indian consumption is also expected to grow at a healthy pace but overall India’s imports will be about the same as the current year. Imports for the months of November to April may be somewhat higher than 2012 but in the later half, they will be slightly lower."

"Let me say at the outset that current Indonesian CPO production is running ahead of expectation. Indonesian production is peaking this month in November and looks like exceeding my estimate of 27.5 million tonnes for 2012. Malaysia will produce 18.4 million tonnes in 2012."
"The possibility of an El Nino has now faded away. Based on data available at present and current rainfall, my model suggests we shall start a new soft Low Cycle from about January which should last until about August 2013. "
"The biological cycle in recent two years has tended to be shorter than in earlier years. Since there has been no major weather disturbance in the last one year, I expect the new Low Cycle to be shorter and softer than earlier ones."
"After the trees have rested and if rainfall remains normal, we shall move into a good High Cycle once again. What is fortunate is that this new High Cycle will coincide with the seasonal High Cycle also."
"Therefore, CPO production in the Second Half of 2013 and particularly in the months of September to December 2013 is likely to be at a new all-time high, possibly creating new monthly production records in both countries."
"My estimate is that Malaysia will produce at least 19 million tonnes in 2013 and Indonesian production will be between 29.5 and 30 million tonnes. Between Malaysia and Indonesia CPO production will expand 2.5 to 3 million tonnes."

"As Malaysian Palm Oil Board stocks drop below 1.8 million tonnes by June next year, the European Union premium of crude palm oil over Brent crude should move up towards $200."
"Adding the CPO premium to the Brent crude oil price, we get these EU CPO price forecasts of $1,000 with Brent at $110 a barrel and $865 with Brent at $90 a barrel by next June."
(This translates to Malaysian palm oil futures trading at around 2,530 ringgit per tonne if the mineral oil drops to $90 a barrel, Fry said. And if Brent remains at $110, palm oil futures could hit 2,950 ringgit.)

"There are three possible outcomes: more crude palm oil or crude olein imports for refining; more polishing of RBD olein imports; and maybe more fractionation of RBD palm oil imports."
"Palm imports will be high for the next two weeks, and then be slow in January as the application of the new policies is studied. They should settle at a level down slightly from 2012."

"The immediate effect of China’s announcement about higher quality specifications for RDB olein in January has been to boost imports as buyers try to avoid uncertainties about how it will be applied."
"Will Chinese Customs authorities allow bulk RBD olein imports, as now, but with a requirement that it be polished to meet the tighter specifications?
"Will application of the regulations differ in different regions, i.e., will they apply before/after polishing?
What about the standards applied to RBD palm oil imported for fractionation? Will they be tightened?
In the background, how will the rules on blending of oils for food use and on “gutter oil” affect palm oil?"

Palm’s role in meeting oil demand in the next few months is affected by new policies round the world."
"Among exporters, Malaysia will match Indonesia’s refinery export tax incentives in January. This will boost its share of RBD exports and help to reduce MPOB stocks. This is mildly bullish for CPO prices."
"Among importers: India reacted to Indonesia’s tax reforms by lifting RBD olein import tariffs. However, it is China that needs the closest watching, as the changes to its CIQ quality requirements for RBD olein add to the impact of its measures to tighten the rules regarding the labelling of blended oils tighter."

"Last year was a remarkably good year for CPO output all over the world, from S.E. Asia to Latin America. This year's output is now benefiting from the good rains in most regions in 2011 and so far this year."
"There is also growing confirmation that, regardless of pressures to slow palm plantings, high prices have been promoting the expansion in palm areas. We can expect growth of 2-3 million tonnes a year in Indonesian CPO output for the next few years."
"Over the next six months, the output of oils from all three major oilseeds will be restricted by poor crops and so CPO is crucial in balancing supply-demand."

"The price outlook for 2013, very difficult markets and very dangerous markets at the same time. We have big stocks, very big stocks in Malaysia and Indonesia"
"Palm oil lost market share over the last 12 months. Sunflower all took away market share because of attractive prices…contributing to the very high stocks at the moment."
"World demand for palm oil will rise by 3.6-3.7 in the current season."
"Vegetable oil prices are undervalued for the 2013 positions.
“We need 78 million tones of palm oil by 2020 and that will be a big challenge.””
"The biodiesel market has lost its dynamics at the moment."
"Palm oil price in Rotterdam set to rise to around $1,100 until April/May 2013. I expect that palm oil futures appreciate to 3,100-3,200 Malaysian ringgit sometime in March, April, May 2013."

"Palm oil prices are undervalued, I consider the huge discount of $350 to soyoil as not sustainable. It is a matter of time with current surplus in palm oil getting disposed."

"South American crops are going to be key for prices. September to February 2012/13, global crushing of ten oilseed varieties forecast to suffer an unprecedented drop of 5 million tonnes."
"In contrast, crushing jumped8.4 million tonnes a year ago and 5.8 million tonnes per annum on the average of the past 14 years. The world needs more palm oil to offset these reductions."
"Soybean crushing could be compensated by higher palm oil supplies."
"September/February 2012/13 world soybean supplies down by 24 million tonnes. Little rationing in world soybean consumption so far."

No comments: