Friday, October 19, 2012

20121019 1000 Local & Global Economy Related News.

Mier’s Consumer Sentiments Index (CSI) added 3.4 pts qoq to 118.3 pts at the end of 3Q12 while Business Conditions Index (BCI) fell 15.5 pts qoq to 96 pts. “On balance, taking into account the results of Mier surveys and the fact that domestic demand remains resilient despite negative development overseas, we are upgrading our  2012 and 2013 growth forecast for the Malaysian economy to 4.9% and 5.4% respectively (vs. previous’ forecast of 4.2% and 4.7%  respectively),” said Mier ED Zakariah Abdul Rashid. He added that the central bank was likely to keep the benchmark interest rate at 3% for the remainder of the year.  He also expects the ringgit to “slowly appreciate” to the 2 May rate of RM3.02/US$1 by year-end. (Starbiz)

China’s home prices gained just 0.01% mom in Sep, following monthly gains of 0.1% in both Aug and Jul. Yoy, home prices fell 1.3%. Home prices rose in 31 of 70 cities in Sep versus 35 in Aug. Jan-Sep property investment +15.4% yoy, lower than 15.6% in Jan-Aug. Meanwhile Sep property sales revenues grew 4.9% yoy, down from 20.4% yoy in Aug. (Reuters)

China’s industrial production rose 9.2% yoy in Sep (8.9% in Aug). That compared with the 9% median forecast. (Bloomberg)

China’s fixed-asset investment excluding rural households increased 20.5% yoy in the Jan to Sep period. That compared with the 20.2% median estimate and a 20.2% gain in the first eight months. (Bloomberg)

Retail sales in  China in Sep rose 14.2%  yoy (13.2% in Aug). The median forecast was for an increase of 13.2%. (Bloomberg)

China’s business climate index  fell to 122.8 in 3Q12 from 126.9 in the previous quarter. (Bloomberg)

China: GDP shows pickup signs after seven-quarter slowdown
China’s industrial production, retail sales and fixed-asset investment accelerated in September, reducing the urgency for added stimulus to support the economy after a seven-quarter slowdown. GDP expanded 7.4% in the third quarter from a year earlier. GDP rose 2.2% from the prior period, a four-quarter high. (Bloomberg)

Spain: Banks’ worst-case scenario turning real
Spain’s banks face more loan losses as the pace of an economic slump risks turning a worst-case scenario dismissed in stress tests into reality. Bad loans as a proportion of total lending jumped to a record 10.5% in August from a restated 10.1% in July as EUR9.3bn of loans were newly classified as being in default, according to data published by the Bank of Spain. The ratio has climbed for 17 straight months from 0.7% in December 2006, before Spain’s property boom turned to bust. (Bloomberg)

EU: Leaders commit to bank supervisor design by year-end
European leaders committed to their goal of creating a euro-area bank supervisor by year-end, pushing divisive questions on cost-sharing into 2013. Pressed by counterparts from France to Austria to move quickly on breaking the link between banks and governments in the euro area’s financial crisis, German Chancellor Angela Merkel demanded a “thorough” approach as the 27 European Union leaders met for two days of talks in Brussels. (Bloomberg)

US: Initial jobless claims jump to 388,000
The number of Americans who applied for unemployment benefits last week shot up to a three-month high, reversing a sharp decline in the government’s prior report caused by a seasonal quirk that showed first-time claims at a four-year low. New jobless claims jumped by 46,000 to a seasonally adjusted 388,000 in the week ended 13 Oct. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had forecast claims would rise to 365,000. (MarketWatch)

US: Housing revival boosts economic outlook
Consumer confidence rose to a six-month high and an index of US leading indicators climbed as a nascent housing recovery started to ripple through the world’s largest economy. The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index rose to minus 34.8 in the week ended 14 Oct, the highest level since April, from minus 38.5 the previous week. The Conference Board’s gauge of the outlook for the next three to six months increased 0.6% in September after a revised 0.4% drop in August. (Bloomberg)

The US Conference Board’s index of leading indicators  gained 0.6% mom in Sep (a revised -0.4% in Aug), three times the consensus estimate of 0.2%. (Bloomberg)

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