Tuesday, October 16, 2012

20121016 0955 Soy Oil & Palm Oil Related News.

ITS CPO export up 13.15% to 769,534 tonnes for the period of 1~15 Oct 2012.

SGS CPO export up 16.3% to 768,550 tonnes for the period of 1~15 Oct 2012.

Pro Farmer: After The Bell Soybean Recap  (CME)
Soybean futures closed 20 1/2 to 30 1/4 cents lower through the August 2013 contract, which was low-range but off session lows. Far-deferred contracts posted losses in the teens. Soybean futures faced seasonal selling pressure as yields continue to generally top expectations, which USDA confirmed with its upwardly revised crop estimate last Thursday. Expectations for record South American soybean production are also weighing on the market. In addition to the fundamental pressure, soybeans also faced technical selling today as futures dropped through key support levels and sell stops were triggered.

Soybean Complex Market Recap (CME)
November Soybeans finished down 30 at 1492 1/2, 27 1/2 off the high and 6 3/4 up from the low. January Soybeans closed down 30 1/4 at 1491 3/4. This was 7 3/4 up from the low and 27 1/2 off the high. December Soymeal closed down 9.1 at 456.1. This was 1.5 up from the low and 9.0 off the high. December Soybean Oil finished down 0.66 at 50.01, 0.62 off the high and 0.6 up from the low.
November soybeans closed sharply lower on the day and made a new low for the move at 1485 3/4. Long term support is linked to an explosive export pace, mainly to China, but liquidation by funds kept the bears in control throughout the day. Export inspections for the week ending October 11th were reported at 57.8 million bushels vs. 45.6 the week prior. Only 20 million bushels are needed each week to meet this year's USDA forecast. NOPA crush was positive with 119.7 million bushels which was in line with market expectations but fell against August crush of 127.7 million bushels. South American weather looks favorable with weekend showers favoring northern and eastern Mato Grosso. Rainfall will favor areas of Argentina and western Brazil this week and heavy rainfall will be seen in Southern and Eastern Argentina by mid-week. The heavy rainfall could slow the planting pace for these regions but a dry period is expected to develop thereafter. Brazil's 6-15 day outlook calls for expanding rainfall which should favor summer row crop development.

EDIBLE OIL: Malaysian palm oil futures fell after the government last week announced tax cuts that will only take effect next year, doing little to ease record stocks in the short term. (Reuters)

Mon Oct 15, 2012 6:15am EDT
* Palm oil to revisit low of 2,361 ringgit -technicals
    * Malaysia's palm oil exports for Oct. 1-15 up on month
    * Malaysia may issue tax free crude palm oil export quota in
2013 -source
    * Market players await comments at palm oil seminar

 (Updates price, adds SGS exports data, detail)
    By Chew Yee Kiat
    SINGAPORE, Oct 15 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures
fell on Monday after the government last week announced tax cuts
that will only take effect next year, doing little to ease
record stocks in the short term.
    The market was also under pressure from declines in the U.S.
and China soyoil futures. U.S. soyoil for December delivery
 extended losses to almost 2 percent in late Asian trade
on Monday, hitting its lowest since mid-June.
    The most active January 2013 soyoil contract on the
Dalian Commodity Exchange ended down 1.6 percent, after dropping
to its lowest since early June.
    "When you come into the office and see Dalian and U.S.
soyoil falling, the sentiment darkens," said a trader with a
foreign commodities brokerage in Malaysia.
    "And this adds to the concern that Malaysia is only going to
do something concrete at the start of 2013 and that means it
will be hard to bring down stocks completely."
    The benchmark December contract on the Bursa
Malaysia Derivatives Exchange dropped 2.7 percent to close at
2,433 ringgit ($796) per tonne after tumbling as much as 3.3
percent to an intraday low at 2,417 ringgit.
    Total traded volumes stood at 35,166 lots of 25 tonnes each,
higher than the usual 25,000 lots.
    Malaysia plans a cut in crude palm oil export taxes, slated
for 2013, as it moves to help refiners offer cheaper cargoes,
Commodities Minister Bernard Dompok said on Friday.

    But it may continue issuing a tax free crude palm oil quota
to some firms next year, a senior industry source told Reuters
on Monday, as planters resist the government plan to abolish the
export facility in the world's No.2 producer of the edible oil.

    The market expects top industry analysts Dorab Mistry,
Thomas Mielke and James Fry to address the impact of the tax
change at a seminar in Malaysia on Tuesday.
    Latest cargo surveyor data pointing to stronger demand could
help ease palm oil stocks in Malaysia, which hit a record 2.48
million tonnes in September.
    Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for Oct. 1-15 rose
13.1 percent to 769,534 tonnes from 680,112 tonnes for the Sept.
1-15 period, Intertek Testing Services said on Monday.

    Another cargo surveyor, Societe Generale de Surveillance,
reported a higher increase of 16.3 percent on the month, to
768,550 tonnes.  
    Technicals showed palm oil would fall to 2,361 ringgit per
tonne, as a rebound from 2,230 ringgit has finished around
resistance at 2,528 ringgit, said Reuters analyst Wang Tao.
    In a bearish sign for palm oil, Brent futures slipped
towards $114 a barrel on Monday, falling for a second session
due to worries over weak oil demand, although concerns over
potential supply risks from tension in the Middle East kept
losses in check.    

CORRECTED-UPDATE 1-Malaysia may issue tax free crude palm oil export quota in 2013 -source
Mon Oct 15, 2012 9:14pm EDT
(Corrects part of quote in last paragraph to government could potentially keep quota for "those who have refinereies overseas", not "those who deserve it")
By Niluksi Koswanage
Oct 15 (Reuters) - Malaysia may continue issuing a tax free crude palm oil quota to some firms next year, a senior industry source told Reuters on Monday, as planters resist a government plan to abolish the export facility in the word's No.2 producer of the edible oil.
The source, who has direct knowledge of government policy making, said some plantation companies had asked the commodities ministry to make an exception so that firms with refineries overseas can maintain profit margins.
"There are already some protests. Some of the planters are asking the government to reconsider and make exceptions," said the source, who could not be identified as he is not authorised to speak to the media.
Planters have relied on an annual tax free crude palm oil export quota of about 3 million tonnes to feed their overseas refineries, limiting feedstock costs and turning the sector into one of the most profitable in global agriculture.
Malaysia last week announced plans to scrap the duty free facility from Jan. 1, 2013 to help refiners, who say margins have come under pressure as the quota artificially removes crude palm oil from the market and raises feedstock costs.
"The government last week made a decision to help the downstream part of the palm oil industry by removing the quota and keeping the crude palm oil export tax at a manageable level," said the source, in reference to a plan to cut the tax to 4.5-8.5 percent from 23 percent currently.
"The big planters want some exceptions and the model is going to be altered," the source said.

The export quota has come under scrutiny after Indonesia, the world's top producer, slashed its refined palm oil export tax to half of the crude grade in September last year that boosted margins for local processors.
Indonesian exporters were then able to offer cargoes at a cheaper price, grabbing market share away from Malaysia and helping to lift stocks in its competitor that hit a record high of 2.48 million tonnes in September.
Planters at an industry conference in Kuala Lumpur on Monday said the government's announcement last week would hurt future earnings and affect incomes of small farmers who get higher domestic palm oil prices for the tax quota.
Keeping farmers happy is key for the government which is headed for elections within seven months.
"The government needs to be careful and not anger the farmers," said a trader with a listed plantation company. "Companies like Felda Global, Sime Darby and IOI are also important to help as it will boost the feel good factor before the elections."
Analysts say the government is likely to keep the export quota for planters that have refineries overseas and remove those licence holders who did not make use of their facility to prevent leakages in the system.
"Potentially the government could keep the export quota for those who have refineries overseas. I think the government announced their plans early so they could gauge the reaction," said Ben Santoso, a plantations analyst with DBS Bank in Singapore. (Reporting by Niluksi Koswanage, Editing by Clarence Fernandez)

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