Wednesday, September 5, 2012

20120905 0956 Soy Oil & Palm Oil Related News.

Reuters Survey :
Malaysia Aug 2012 Crude Palm Oil
- Exports seen up 11.8% at 1.45 million tonnes from Jul 2012
- Stocks seen up 4.5% at 2.09 million tonnes from Jul 2012
- Output seen down 3% at 1.64 million tonnes from Jun 2012

Low soy crop to push palm oil price up -Oil World - Reuters
04-Sep-2012 21:30
Surging soy prices to transfer demand to palm oil Demand will raise palm oil price Indonesia and Malaysia to up palm oil output
HAMBURG, Sept 4 (Reuters) - Record soybean prices will cause a major swing in demand towards cheaper palm oil in coming months which in turn will push palm prices up, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World said on Tuesday.
“Global dependence on palm oil will rise significantly in the next 12 months to compensate (for) insufficient supplies of other vegetable oils,” Oil World said. “We expect palm oil prices to recover owing to increased export demand.”
Soybean prices remain close to a record high hit on Aug. 30 caused by concerns about drought devastation to the U.S. crop, following similar drought damage earlier this year to major exporters Brazil and Argentina.
But palm oil did not achieve the same price rises as seen in soyoil in August, Oil World said.
“Palm oil prices are undervalued,” it said.
The price discount of refined, bleached and deodorised (RBD) palm olein oil fob Malaysia against Argentine soyoil widened by around $100 a tonne fob in the past four weeks and in recent days touched $280 to $290 a tonne, Oil World said.
This price difference will transfer demand from soyoil to the leading palm oil exporters Indonesia and Malaysia but palm output is also likely to rise in Thailand, Central America and South America, it said.
“We now expect world palm oil production to reach around 54.0 million tonnes in Oct. 2012/Sept. 2013 compared with around 50.8 million tonnes in 2011/12,” it said.
Indonesia’s Oct. 2012/Sept. 2013 palm oil output will rise to 26.60 million tonnes from 25.02 million tonnes in 2011/12 and Malaysia’s 2012/13 output will rise to 19.36 million tonnes from 18.06 million tonnes, Oil World estimates.

Pro Farmer: After the Bell Soybean Recap (CME)
Soybean futures posted an all-time high of $17.89 on the weekly continuation chart, but ended low-range. September through January futures ended with gains of 6 1/2 to 15 1/4 cents, with the rest of the market closing mostly 30-plus cents higher. Meal ended mixed amid bull spread unwinding, with soyoil stronger. Early support in the bean pit came from ideas the market had more work ahead of it to ration shrinking supplies.

Soybean Complex Market Recap (CME)
November Soybeans finished up 11 3/4 at 1768 1/4, 20 3/4 off the high and 12 3/4 up from the low. January Soybeans closed up 15 1/4 at 1766 1/4. This was 12 1/2 up from the low and 15 1/4 off the high. December Soymeal closed unchanged at 533.4. This was 1.6 up from the low and 8.4 off the high. December Soybean Oil finished up 1.14 at 58.22, 0.38 off the high and 0.96 up from the low.
November soybeans closed higher on the day and the July 2013 contract surged to post a new high for the move. Some talk of tightening supply ahead due to poor closing weather for the western Corn Belt helped to support. Parts of South Dakota and Minnesota have had very little rain in the past two weeks and the region saw temperature highs into the 100's again this past weekend. Traders noted heavy selling of calendar spreads which added significant pressure to the September and November contracts. Export inspections came in at 15.13 million bushels which was higher than expected and shows strong upfront demand. With only 1 day left in the season (inspections for the week ending August 30th) cumulative shipments have reached 101.2% of the USDA forecast for the season. This means that old crop exports will be revised higher and this will pull down beginning stocks. Traders see some harvest progress this week and this has helped to limit the advance as basis levels slip.
Talk that Argentina meal is competitively priced with US meal was also seen as a limiting factor. Talk of low bean pod counts and talk of even smaller production for the September report continue to add underlying support to the market.

EDIBLES: Malaysia palm oil futures closed lower after rising to their highest level in a week, as traders booked profits from a rally triggered by record high soybean prices. (Reuters)

No comments: