Pro Farmer: After the Bell Soybean Recap(Source: CME)
Soybean futures finished with strong gains in the August through January 2013 contracts. March 2013 soybeans posted lesser gains, while far-deferred futures ended lower for the day. August soybean futures posted an intra-day high of $16.85 1/2, which represents a new all-time high on the weekly continuation chart. Old-crop soybean futures led the price surge today as traders search for a price that actively slows demand amid tight supplies and declining new-crop potential.
Soybean Complex Market Recap (Source: CME)
August Soybeans finished up 44 1/2 at 1683 1/2, 2 off the high and 57 1/2 up from the low. November Soybeans closed up 29 1/2 at 1620. This was 44 up from the low and 2 off the high. August Soymeal closed up 20 at 514.0. This was 22.4 up from the low and equal to the high. August Soybean Oil finished down 0.13 at 54.01, 0.33 off the high and 0.71 up from the low. August and November soybeans traded sharply higher into the close. August soybean meal traded $20 higher while August soybean oil lost 30 cents. The weather outlook for most of the Midwest looks detrimental to US soybean yields the next two weeks. The southeast and delta could see showers this week and restricted rainfall may fall in parts of Northern Illinois and Indiana by this weekend. Rainfall amounts are expected to be light but will benefit soybean crops. Temperatures are expected to reach 95-105 degrees in Kansas, Missouri, South Dakota, Iowa, and Nebraska this week; increasing stress on row crops. Cash soybean markets were firm today, causing the August soybean contract to gain on forward months. The trade is expecting soybean yields to fall near 40 bushels/acre with some estimates near 37 bushels/acre. The sharply higher trade in soybeans reflects the fear of extremely tight soybean supplies mixed with increased demand over the next couple months.
VEGOILS-Palm down on weak exports, higher output
SINGAPORE, July 18 (Reuters) - Malaysian crude palm oil futures edged down as traders booked profits partly on weaker exports and better production outlook in Malaysia after a recent U.S. weather-fuelled rally.
"I think the market just doesn't have enough push to go up further at the moment. But it won't be going down much also because of the wide spread between soybean oil and palm oil," said a Singapore-based trader with a commodities house.
Oil World raises global rapeseed crop forecast
HAMBURG, July 17 (Reuters) - Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts firm Oil World on Tuesday raised its estimate of the global 2012/13 rapeseed crop by 0.3 million tonnes to 61.9 million tonnes, which is up from the 2011/2012 harvest of 59.63 million tonnes.
But high export demand for rapeseed, also known as canola, as buyers seek alternatives to tighter soybean supplies are likely to keep prices supported in coming months, it said.
Soybeans Rally Near Record as U.S. Drought Forecast to Persist(Source: Bloomberg)
Soybeans advanced to a four-year high and traded within 1 percent of a record set during the global food crisis in 2008 on concern a drought in the U.S. will hurt supplies from the biggest producer. Corn and wheat fell even amid forecasts that the dry weather may last through summer. Soybeans for November delivery rose as much as 0.3 percent to $16.24 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade, the highest level for a most-active contract since July 2008. The price, which reached a record $16.3675 four years ago, was little changed at $16.2075 at 7:45 a.m. in Singapore. Corn fell as much as 1 percent, while wheat declined as much as 0.6 percent. The drought in the Midwest may persist for the rest of the growing season, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said yesterday. Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack said the drought may cause a “small decline” in corn and soybean exports.
The surge in grain and soybeans may spur a third wave of food inflation, after global price shocks in 2008 and 2011 that incited civil unres t in developing countries, Barclays Plc said. “Market participants may be starting to think about how high prices are going to begin to ration demand,” Michael Creed, an economist at National Australia Bank Ltd., said by phone from Melbourne. Soybeans are poised for a fifth weekly gain. Corn for December delivery traded 0.5 percent lower at $7.8075 a bushel. The most-active price rallied to $7.89 on July 17, the highest level for a most-active contract since June 9, 2011, and near the record $7.9925 set in 2008. September- delivery wheat was 0.2 percent lower at $9.0175 a bushel. The price reached $9.085 yesterday, the highest since Feb. 14, 2011.
“It looks like the dome of high pressure that has been dominating the continental United States will continue to park itself over the Plains and parts of the Midwest for at least the next two weeks,” Brad Rippey, a USDA meteorologist, said in a statement yesterday. “More than likely, this will persist through the remainder of the 2012 crop season.” Mostly above-normal temperatures and below-normal rainfall are expected to continue across the Midwest for at least the next 10 days, Telvent DTN said in a report yesterday. That will lead to further deterioration of corn and soybean crops, it said.
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