Monday, July 2, 2012

20120702 1002 Global Economy Related News.

The annual growth in broad money (M3) moderated to 13.2% in May from 15% in Apr. Net financing to the private sector expanded by RM22.3bn or 13.1% in May (+RM6.1bn or 12.8% in Apr). Total loans outstanding rose 12.5% yoy in May (12.1% in Apr). (Bank Negara Malaysia)

Malaysia and India have joined hands in a venture that will offer local government authorities a revolutionary technology transfer platform involving the automation of building planning approval process. This collaboration is through a memorandum of understanding (MoU) signed between Global Concerts (M) Sdn Bhd (GC), a local management consulting company, and Indian-based Vinzas Solutions India Private Limited, a technology-consulting firm. The MoU will help in sharing of technology for document regulatory control system called Smart Development Control Regulation (DCR) to speed up and offer greater fluency through the automation of the building plan scrutiny and approval process, with respect to "dealing with construction permits." The Smart DCR was developed by Vinzas. Malaysia will be the second country in the world to implement this system after India. (Bernama)

PM Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak said although Malaysia is an oil producer, domestic demand equals the oil exported making it a marginal net exporter. Malaysia's oil is more suitable for international market and domestic needs and the government had to import and process oil from Middle East countries. The government also contributed significantly to the people via subsidy of more than RM2bn per year for each litre of petroleum products. "One litre of RON95 has subsidy of 82 sen per litre. We are paying RM1.90 per liter although we should be paying RM1.90 plus 82 sen. A full tank of about 25 litres will save us between RM25 and RM30," he said. The government chose to adopt a prudent policy and not give high subsidy because the funds could be used for economic development, he said. (Bernama)

With fewer than 10 months before the parliamentary term ends, it is increasingly likely that parliamentary and all state elections, except in Sarawak, will be held simultaneously. Political pundits and politicians said a June, self-imposed cut-off point by Selangor Menteri Besar Tan Sri Abdul Khalid Ibrahim had lapsed, leaving Pakatan Rakyat-led state governments with no more excuses to hold state elections at a later date. Asked over the weekend whether Selangor would hold concurrent elections, Khalid said: "We will never reveal our strategy." The Election Commission said it did not favour having parliamentary and state elections at different times, given the additional cost of RM30m for Selangor alone. (NST)

Bank lending in Singapore rose by 22.5% yoy (24% in Apr), totaling about S$445bn in May. (Channel News Asia)

Thailand’s foreign reserves for the week ending 22 Jun stood at US$173.1bn from US$174bn the previous week. (Bloomberg)

Vietnam's economy is showing signs of stable development in the face of difficulties caused by the global economic crisis, whilst the domestic real estate market has shown signs of light recovery after the Government outlined solutions to stimulate sluggish activity. (Vietnam News)

Vietnam’s GDP expanded 4.7% yoy in the Apr-Jun period, accelerating from a 4.0% expansion in the previous quarter. (WSJ)

Vietnam’s retail sales gained 19.5% yoy in Jun (20.8% in May). (Bloomberg)

Vietnam’s consumer price index in Jun rose 6.9% yoy, the slowest pace since Dec 2009, and well off a recent peak of 23% in Aug last year. (WSJ)

India’s current-account deficit in the three months through Mar was US$21.7bn, or 4.5% of GDP, compared with US$6.3bn a year earlier, or 1.3% of GDP (US$19.6bn in Oct-Dec). (WSJ)


China: Flagging growth in mainland factories
Growth in manufacturing activity on the mainland slowed to a six-month low in June as domestic and export demand fell. The purchasing managers' index (PMI) edged down to 50.2 in June, from 50.4 in May. A PMI reading of above 50 indicates growth in manufacturing activity, while a reading of below 50 indicates a contraction. Output and stocks of finished goods expanded in June but new domestic and export orders as well as employment contracted. Although the PMI was down, it was higher than a market consensus forecast of 49.9. (South China Morning Post)


China’s official manufacturing PMI fell to 50.2 in Jun (50.4 in May), the slowest pace since Nov but exceeded market expectations of 49.8. (WSJ)

Chinese industrial companies’ profits fell for a second month in May. Income dropped 5.3% from a year earlier to RMB390.9bn. That compares with a 2.2% decline in Apr and 4.5% gain in Mar. (FT)

Japan’s industrial output fell 3.1% mom in May (-0.2% in Apr; -2.8% in the consensus), the most since the Mar 2011 earthquake, whilst consumer prices excluding fresh food fell 0.1% yoy in May. (Bloomberg)

Japan has found a large deposit of rare earth minerals in its Pacific seabed amounting to around 6.8m tonnes, enough to supply its hi-tech industries for more than 200 years. (AFP)

Japan faces the same risks that plague financially-embattled European states, Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda warned. (AFP)


South Korea: Inflation moderated to slowest pace in 32 months in June
South Korea’s inflation moderated in June, giving the central bank more leeway to forgo raising borrowing costs at a policy meeting on 12 July. Consumer prices increased 2.2% y-o-y after a 2.5% gain in May. The median estimate was for a 2.5% gain. Prices fell 0.1% m-o-m. Core consumer prices, which exclude oil and agricultural products, advanced 1.5% y-o-y in June. South Korea’s GDP may expand 3.3% this year, less than a December estimate of 3.7%. Inflation this year may be 2.8% rather than a past 3.2% prediction. (Bloomberg)

South Korea: Exports expand as weak won offsets European crisis
South Korea’s exports rose in June, snapping three months of declines, after a weaker won fueled overseas sales even as China’s growth slowed and Europe’s debt crisis deepened. Overseas shipments rose 1.3% y-o-y, after a revised 0.6% decline in May. The median estimate was for a 0.5% gain. The won has fallen about 6% over the past 12 months. South Korea’s imports fell 5.4% y-o-y in June and the trade surplus for the month was USD4.96bn. The ministry also cut its estimate for export growth this year to 3.5% from a January projection of 6.7%, citing a slowdown in major economies. It now expects the value of overseas shipments this year to reach USD574.5bn from a previous estimate of USD595bn. (Bloomberg)

Australia: RBA to halt rate cuts after growth accelerates
Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens probably will keep interest rates unchanged tomorrow after cutting them in each of the past two months, as the nation’s strongest economic expansion in five years reduces the need to guard against fallout from Europe’s debt crisis. Interest-rate swaps indicate a 67% chance the RBA will keep the overnight cash-rate target at 3.5%. Investors pulled back last month from bets the RBA will add to its 1.25 ppt of reductions since November after data showed Australia’s economic growth was the strongest since 2007. (Bloomberg)

UK: House prices stagnate on subdued demand
UK house prices stopped rising in June for the first time in four months as economic uncertainty and a seasonal slowdown curtailed activity in a market that now faces “downward pressure.” Prices stayed unchanged from May, Hometrack Ltd said. The number of new buyer registrations fell 0.5%, the first drop in five months, while the volume of properties being put up for sale rose 1.5%. On the month, London was the only one out of 10 areas tracked by Hometrack that showed a price gain in June, with a 0.3% increase. Y-o-y, values nationally fell 0.5%. (Bloomberg)

S&P 500 caps best June since 1999 on European agreement
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (SPX) capped the biggest June rally since 1999 after European leaders reached an agreement that alleviated concern banks will fail. The S&P 500 jumped 2.5%, the most in 2012, to 1,362.16 while the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 277.83 points, or 2.2%, to 12,880.09. Stocks gained, joining a global rally, as European leaders agreed to relax conditions on emergency loans for Spanish banks and possible help for Italy as an outflanked German Chancellor Angela Merkel gave in on expanded steps to stem the debt crisis. (Bloomberg)


US Federal Reserve officials said they were keeping an eye out for any signs that slowing growth is raising deflation risks but differed on how worrisome sluggish job markets are for the modest US economic recovery. (Reuters)

US personal income grew 0.2% mom in May (0.2% in Apr), undershooting consensus of 0.3%, whilst consumer spending experienced no change (a revised 0.1% mom in Apr), matching consensus. The PCE price index fell 0.2% mom (no change in Apr), overshooting consensus of -0.1%, whilst the core PCE price index gained 0.1% mom (0.1% in Apr), half the consensus of 0.2%. (Bloomberg)

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