Friday, May 4, 2012

20120504 0939 Global Commodities Related News.

GRAINS-Wheat, corn tick up after selloff; soy falls for 3rd day
SINGAPORE, May 3 (Reuters) - Chicago corn and wheat rose around half a percent, as grain markets took a breather after suffering their biggest decline in more than three months in a selloff sparked by prospects of bumper U.S. crops.
"I think wheat was hit hard yesterday, so it is a bit of buying on the setback," said Adam Davis, a senior commodity analyst at Merricks Capital in Melbourne. "There are nervous longs around in soybeans and corn, as you see a bit of a selloff, everyone hits the panic buttons."

Vietnam cuts 2012 rice export forecast to 5.4 mln T
HANOI, May 3 (Reuters) - Vietnam's 2012 rice exports will decline by a quarter from last year to 5.4 million tonnes, the Agriculture Ministry said, basing its forecast on lower first-quarter sales, but added that final volumes could be higher thanks to regional buying demand.
The amount was lower than last month's full-year export forecast of 6.1 million tonnes, which in turn was nearly 14 percent less than last year's record exports of 7.2 million tonnes.

FAO CUTS 2012/13 outlook for wheat output
MILAN, May 3 (Reuters) - The UN's food agency on Thursday cut its 2012/13 outlook for  world wheat output to 675 million tonnes from an earlier forecast of 690 million tonnes last year, citing output falls in Ukraine, Kazakhstan, China, Morocco and the European Union.
The UN's Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) said international wheat prices in 2012/13 are expected to average lower than in the previous crop year, despite smaller crops and shrinking stocks, due to a fall in consumption and large export supplies.

Kansas wheat yield best since at least 2003; rain needed
WICHITA, Kansas, May 2 (Reuters) - Wheat fields scouted on the first two days of an annual crop tour in Kansas had the potential for the best yields in at least nine years but the drought conditions that devastated the crop last year still persist, crop scouts found on Wednesday.
Yields across the northern, western and central parts of Kansas, the largest wheat growing state, averaged 48.5 bushels per acre, above the two-day average last year of 36.7 bpa and the largest since at least 2003, which is as far back as the tour provided historical data.

Brazil key ag exports fall on yr in April
BRASILIA, May 2 (Reuters) - Brazil's shipments of its most valuable agricultural exports -- including soybeans, sugar and coffee -- all fell in April from a year earlier, Trade Ministry data showed on Wednesday.
Soy output has been hit by a severe drought in the south of the country, which is days from finishing up this year's harvest.Meanwhile, sugar cane output from the main center-south crop dipped last year for the first time in more than a decade due to poor weather and aging cane plants.

Brazil corn output seen 64.5 mln tonnes-US attache
May 2 (Reuters) - Following are selected highlights from a report issued by a U.S. Department of Agriculture attache in Brazil:
"Post raises its 2011/12 corn production estimate to 64.5 million tonnes, due to favorable weather and last-minute decisions to increase planted area to second-crop corn. New allocations of government support are bolstering 2011/12 rice exports. The anticipated short supply and high level of exports should stabilize rice prices. Wheat exports have continued strong, also thanks to government support programs."

India grain output seen at 252.6 mln tonnes-attache
May 2 (Reuters) - Following are selected highlights from a report issued by a U.S. Department of Agriculture attache in India:
"The Ministry of Agriculture's third advance estimate has raised India's food grain production for the Indian crop year 2011/12 to a record 252.6 million tonnes on record production of rice and wheat. Post's MY 2012/13 wheat production has been raised to a record 91 million tonnes and MY 2011/12 rice production to a record 103.4 million tonnes. With the government already holding 'burdensome' grain stocks, expected record government wheat and rice procurement in the coming months will lead to serious storage challenges."

Wheat Market Recap Report (Source: CME)
July Wheat finished up 1 at 615 1/2, 6 1/4 off the high and 2 1/4 up from the low. December Wheat closed up 3 at 656 3/4. This was 4 1/4 up from the low and 3 3/4 off the high. July wheat gave back the early gains to close near unchanged. July KC wheat held on to gain a few cents on the day and Minneapolis July wheat fell to new lows for the move and to the lowest level since November of 2010. On top of reports from Kansas of good yield potential, traders also view the outlook for more rain in the plains in the next week and a lack of cold weather as a bearish influence. However, talk that the sharp sell-off yesterday was a bit overdone helped to support a bounce early today. Weekly export sales for wheat came in at 256,700 metric tonnes for the current marketing year and 454,800 for the next marketing year for a total of 711,500. As of April 26th, cumulative wheat sales stand at 100.2% of the USDA forecast for 2011/2012 (current) marketing year versus a 5 year average of 96.4%. European milling wheat futures pushed to a two-week low pressued by talk of improving weather in France. July Oats closed up 7 1/4 at 344 1/2. This was 15 1/2 up from the low and 2 1/2 off the high.

Market Recap: Wheat Futures (Source: CME)
Chicago and Kansas City wheat futures trimmed gains into the close to finish mostly 1 to 3 cents higher, with Minneapolis ending mostly 1 1/2 to 5 1/2 cents lower. Chicago and Kansas City futures benefited from short-covering following yesterday's late-session decline, with much of the support coming from concerns hot and dry weather this weekend will stress the hard red winter wheat crop.

Corn Market Recap for 5/3/2012 (Source: CME)
July Corn finished up 3 at 614 1/2, 2 1/4 off the high and 7 up from the low. December Corn closed down 1 1/2 at 529 1/2. This was 5 1/2 up from the low and 2 3/4 off the high. May corn closed 8 1/2 cents higher, July up 3 and December down just 1 1/2 cents with a strong recovery late in the day. The old crop tightness, a very strong cash market and ideas that the USDA will need to raise exports and tighten old crop ending stocks further in next week's Supply/demand update has helped to support the nearby contracts. An excellent weather outlook plus the early plantings has traders inching up their yield projections for the new crop season. After a few more days of warm and wet weather across the heart of the Midwest, the weather looks cooler and warmer for several days before more rains move in. This should help keep planters moving but just not at the record-setting pace of early spring. The weather is also considered favorable for the crops which have been planted. Net weekly export sales for corn, came in at 1.332 metric tonnes for the current marketing year and 2.14 million for the next marketing year for a total of 3.472 million tonnes. Cumulative corn sales stand at 86.4% of the USDA forecast for 2011/2012 (current) marketing year versus a 5 year average of 82.0%. Sales of 321,000 metric tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast. Traders indicated that the combined sales for the week were at the highest weekly total since 1991. The lack of deliveries and news that Argentina will not export corn to China until more of the GMO details are worked out helped to support the nearby contracts. July Rice finished up 0.33 at 15.185, 0.035 off the high and 0.205 up from the low.

Market Recap: Corn Futures  (Source: CME)
Corn futures staged a split finish, with old-crop futures 8 1/2 and 3 cents firmer and September through July 2013 contracts mostly around a penny lower. Futures finished in the upper half of today’s trading range. Bull spreading activity dominated activity in the corn pit today. This was encouraged by USDA’s Weekly Export Sales Report, which showed 1.3319 million metric tons (MMT) in sales for 2011-12 and 2.1403 MMT for 2012-13. This is yet another sign that price rationing needed to make U.S. carryover supplies last is not occurring.

SOFTS-Sugar, cocoa consolidate, coffee eases
LONDON, May 3 (Reuters) - ICE raw sugar futures steadied above a 1-year low, with prospects for further exports from key producer India weighing on prices, while cocoa was also near unchanged as the market consolidated after choppy trading in recent sessions.  Raw sugar futures on ICE  hovered above a 1-year low, as India's decision to remove export restrictions, combined with the global surplus, was bearish for prices.

Vietnam ups 2012 coffee export f'cast to 1.25 mln T
HANOI, May 3 (Reuters) - Vietnam is expected to export 1.25 million tonnes, or 20.83 million bags, of coffee in 2012, up from a previous forecast of 1.15 million tonnes, the farm ministry said.
Coffee export revenues for Vietnam - the world's largest robusta coffee producer - will hit $2.66 billion, down around 3 percent from 2011, the Agriculture Ministry said in a monthly report on Thursday.

India's Oct-April coffee exports down 2 pct-Board
MUMBAI, May 3 (Reuters) - Indian coffee exports dropped 2 percent on year to 196,496 tonnes in the first seven months of the coffee year that started in October, the state-run Coffee Board said.
However, in value terms, coffee exports during the period rose $586 million compared with $573 million a year earlier.

Brazil mid crop cocoa starts flowing early
SAO PAULO, May 2 (Reuters) - Deliveries of cocoa to warehouses in Brazil rose in the past week as harvesting of the May-September mid crop got underway, according to comments from a Bahia-based cocoa analyst and data from Bahia Commercial Association.
That cocoa would count toward the 2011/12 season which ended on April 30, helping its main crop achieve a forecast 950,000 bags (57,000 tonnes). The 2011/12 season ended 2 percent shy of the output achieved in the prior year, at 3.04 million bags or 183,000 tonnes, excluding imports. Final figures for the 2011/12 crop could still undergo minor adjustments.

Colombia mid-crop coffee harvest bodes ill for 2012 output
BOGOTA, May 2 (Reuters) - Colombia's mid-crop coffee harvest may be so weak this year that total 2012 output could be dragged to a four decade low, hobbling the Andean nation's bid to recoup historic production levels within four years, growers said.  Colombia, the world's top producer of high-quality Arabica beans, has seen its coffee crop crippled in recent years by torrential rains, which prevented flowering and sparked an increase in coffee tree diseases.

Thailand's Mitr Phol sees more sugar sales in Asia
BANGKOK, May 3 (Reuters) - Mitr Phol Sugar , Thailand biggest sugar miller, plans to boost domestic production by at least 5 percent to 1.9 million tonnes in the next crop year, mainly to serve growing demand in Asia, its president said on Thursday.
Krisda Monthienvichienchai said the company would continue to produce 1.8 million tonnes from its milling houses in China and Australia, as well as increase production in its Laos plant, to provide sugar for its Asian customers.

OIL-Brent holds above $118, caution ahead of US data
SINGAPORE, May 3 (Reuters) - Brent crude steadied above $118 a barrel, reflecting caution among investors ahead of a key U.S. employment report after dismal data from the United States and Europe renewed doubts about the state of the global economy.
"Risk markets are overall very cautious ahead of this nonfarm payroll data, that's why we're seeing reduced volumes and a few bets being taken off the table," said Ben Le Brun, market analyst at OptionsXpress in Sydney.

China to employ 1st deep-sea rig in South China Sea
BEIJING, May 3 (Reuters) - China will formally employ its first home-made, deep-sea semi-submersible drilling platform in the east part of South China Sea on May 9, marking the beginning of the country's deepwater oil strategy, the National Energy Administration said.
Ocean Oil 981 will be used to drill the Liwan 6-1-1 well, which has water depth of 1,500 metres (5,000 feet) and designed well depth of 2,371 metres (7,780 feet), the administration said in a report on its website dated April 28.

Oil Trades Near Two-Week Low on U.S., Europe Economic Concern (Source: Bloomberg)
Oil traded near a two-week low in New York, heading for a weekly decline, as worse-than-forecast U.S. economic data and concern that Europe’s outlook is faltering boosted speculation that demand for fuel may ease. Futures were little changed after dropping 2.6 percent yesterday, the most since December. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said the region’s economic prospects had downside risks while reports showed service industries in the U.S. grew less than projected and consumer confidence weakened. “Some of the recent U.S. and European data has been a little bit weaker, a little bit on the soft side,” Ric Spooner, a chief market analyst at CMC Markets in Sydney, said by telephone today. “The central assumption is that we’ll see moderate growth across the world, patchy in places.”
Crude for June delivery was at $102.55 a barrel, up 1 cent, on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 10:08 a.m. Sydney time. The contract yesterday slid $2.68 to $102.54, the lowest close since April 19. Prices are 2.3 percent lower this week, heading for the first weekly decline in three.

LME Wants to Push Warehouse Network Into China, Abbott Says (Source: Bloomberg)
The London Metal Exchange, the biggest marketplace for industrial metals that’s considering takeover offers next week, wants to expand its warehouse network into China, the largest user of base metals including copper. “We would love to be able to put LME delivery points, LME warehouses into China, which we think would be a big benefit to the Chinese industry and LME,” Chief Executive Officer Martin Abbott said in a Bloomberg Television interview today. The LME is anticipating a number of approaches next week, Abbott said. The exchange licenses a network of more than 600 storage sites around the world where users can deposit metals, with Asian locations in Japan, South Korea, Malaysia and Singapore. Metals demand in Asia will continue to expand, Abbott said.
“What’s going on in China, what’s going on in the whole of Asia, it’s a whole multi-generational structural change, it’s not a flash in the pan,” said Abbott. “It’s structural, it’s not cyclical. So we’re not going to be fazed by short-term adjustments to forecasts.”

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