Hedge Funds Cut Bullish Wagers by the Most in Four Months (Source: Bloomberg)
Hedge funds cut their bets on higher commodity prices by the most in four months on mounting concern that Europe’s debt crisis will derail global growth and curb demand for raw materials. Money managers lowered net-long positions across 18 U.S. futures and options by 11 percent to 898,022 contracts in the week ended April 17, the most since Dec. 20, data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission show. Bets on rising sugar prices fell the most in more than three years, while the funds anticipate declines in cotton, wheat, coffee and natural gas. A surge in unemployment from Spain to Italy to Greece is undermining efforts to quell the region’s debt as borrowing costs rise. U.S. industrial production stalled for a second month in March, the Federal Reserve said April 17. Home prices in China fell last month in a record 37 of 70 cities tracked by the government, data showed April 18.
The “super cycle” that drove an almost fourfold gain in commodity prices since the end of 2001 may be ending, Citigroup Inc. said last week. “Concerns about a global slowdown are growing,” said Walter ‘Bucky’ Hellwig, who helps manage $17 billion of assets at BB&T Wealth Management in Birmingham, Alabama. “The conditions just aren’t favorable for a commodity rally.”
GRAINS-U.S. soybeans, corn climb on Chinese demand
SYDNEY, April 23 (Reuters) - U.S. soybeans rose, extending gains after hitting a 7-1/2 month high in the previous session, underpinned by strong international demand and South American supply concerns.
"There is continued talk of downgrades in the South American soybean crop and the associated increase in international demand for soybeans," said Luke Mathews, commodities strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.
Indian 2012 wheat harvest seen at record 90.23 mln T
NEW DELHI, April 23 (Reuters) - India is expected to produce a record 90.23 million tonnes of wheat in 2012, Farm Minister Sharad Pawar said on Monday, releasing the ministry's latest output estimates.
On March 30, India's farm secretary said wheat output could touch a record 90 million tonnes in 2011/12 crop year on favourable weather conditions.
India likely to have normal monsoon in 2012-farm secretary
NEW DELHI, April 23 (Reuters) - India is likely to have normal monsoon in 2012 and the government will give a detailed region-wise forecast on Thursday, Farm Secretary P.K. Basu said on Monday.
The June-September monsoon, vital for agricultural output and economic growth, irrigates around 60 percent of farms in India, the world's second-biggest producer of rice, wheat, sugar and cotton. Agriculture accounts for about 15 percent of India's nearly $2 trillion economy, Asia's third biggest.
Algeria's Q1 grain imports down 12.7 pct y/y - data
ALGIERS, April 22 (Reuters) - Algeria's wheat imports in the first quarter of this year were down 12.7 percent on the same period in 2011, customs data showed, after an easing off in social unrest and a more promising domestic harvest softened demand.
The data, obtained by Reuters, showed Algeria imported 1.44 million tonnes of grain in Jan-March this year, against 1.65 million tonnes in the first quarter of 2011.
Chile corn output seen up, imports down-US attache
April 20 (Reuters) - Following are selected highlights from a report issued by a U.S. Department of Agriculture attache in Chile:
"A lower quality and smaller volume of wheat production is expected, which in turn means increased imports. But corn imports are expected to fall as production will increase more than previously estimated during the present marketing year."
Iran to import 1.7 mln T wheat in 2012/13 - FAO
MILAN, April 20 (Reuters) - Iran's wheat import needs are expected to drop 32 percent year on year to 1.7 million tonnes in the 2012/13 marketing year (April/March) thanks to higher carryover stocks from the current season, the UN's Food and Agriculture Organisation said.
Iran has built ample stocks of wheat, the dominant cereal in the country -- accounting for nearly 70 percent of total cereal production -- in the early months of 2012, the FAO said in a country brief on Iran on its website (www.fao.org).
Algeria's Q1 grain imports down 12.7 pct y/y (Source: CME)
Algeria's wheat imports in the first quarter of this year were down 12.7 percent on the same period in 2011, customs data showed, after an easing off in social unrest and a more promising domestic harvest softened demand.
The data, obtained by Reuters, showed Algeria imported 1.44 million tonnes of grain in Jan-March this year, against 1.65 million tonnes in the first quarter of 2011.
Corn Market Recap for 4/23/2012 (Source: CME)
July Corn finished up 9 1/2 at 612 1/2, equal to the high and 12 1/2 up from the low. December Corn closed up 8 3/4 at 545 1/2. This was 12 3/4 up from the low and equal to the high. May corn closed higher on the day but still down near the lower end of a 6 1/2 month trading range. The weekly COT report showed an active long liquidation selling trend from speculators and traders viewed the market as oversold. Continued talk that China is in the process of booking corn from the US and others plus a lack of new selling interest even with a bearish influence from outside markets and a real "risk off" mentality from fund traders today helped to support solid gains in old crop corn this morning. News that exporters reported a sale of 120,000 tonnes of US corn for 2012/13 delivery helped to provide some support. Ideas that the sell-off on Friday was overdone plus more and more talk that there is substance to the China rumors of restocking reserves with new crop US corn helped to support. Weekly export inspections came in at 29.38 million bushels which was well below trade expectations for the report and compares with 30.9 million bushels necessary each week to reach the USDA projection. While the temperature outlook is colder than desired this week, there is only a limited amount of rain expected across the heart of the Midwest and planting is expected to be active. In addition, traders see warmer weather for next week. Traders see weekly updates for this afternoon showing that near 31% of the crop is planted as compared with 8% last year and 14% as the 20-year average. July Rice finished up 0.17 at 15.93, equal to the high and 0.28 up from the low.
Corn Gains on Speculation China to Buy U.S. Grain; Wheat Rises (Source: Bloomberg)
Corn rose on speculation that China, the world’s largest pork consumer, will buy more U.S. grain to meet expanding demand for feed from hog producers. Wheat also advanced. U.S. exporters sold 120,000 metric tons of corn to unknown destinations for delivery after Sept. 1, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said today. China’s state traders may buy U.S. supplies if corn falls to $5.50 a bushel, the China National Grain & Oils Information Center said today. Before today, prices for delivery in December, after the U.S. harvest, were down 8.4 percent this year to $5.3675 a bushel in Chicago. “The trade is looking for more sales to be announced to China,” Chad Henderson, a market analyst for Prime Agricultural Consultants Inc. in Brookfield, Wisconsin, said in a telephone interview. “Imported U.S. corn is competitive with supplies in China.”
Corn futures for July delivery rose 1.6 percent to close at $6.125 a bushel at 1:15 p.m. on the Chicago Board of Trade, after falling 8.4 percent the previous two weeks, the biggest such decline this year. On April 18, the price touched $5.9175, the lowest for the most active contract since Dec. 19. Corn imports by China reached 472,026 tons in March, up from 2,340 tons a year earlier, according to an e-mailed statement from the customs agency today.
Market Recap: Corn Futures (Source: CME)
Corn futures got off to a choppy start, but bulls gained momentum as the day progressed, helping all contracts to settle at the top of their daily trading range with gains around 8 to 10 cents. USDA’s announcement of a 120,000-metric-ton corn sale to unknown destinations added to speculation China may be in the market for U.S. corn today.
Chile corn output seen up, imports down (Source: CME)
Following are selected highlights from a report issued by a U.S. Department of Agriculture attache in Chile:
"A lower quality and smaller volume of wheat production is expected, which in turn means increased imports. But corn imports are expected to fall as production will increase more than previously estimated during the present marketing year."
Wheat Market Recap Report (Source: CME)
July Wheat finished up 9 1/2 at 632 1/2, 2 1/2 off the high and 11 1/4 up from the low. December Wheat closed up 10 1/4 at 672. This was 12 1/4 up from the low and 2 off the high. May wheat closed moderately higher with talk of the oversold condition of the market and some concerns for cold weather threat later this week helping to support. The market opened near unchanged on the day but quickly experienced active short-covering to drive the market moderately higher on the day into the mid-session. There are some cold weather concerns for the eastern Corn Belt for late this week which might have sparked some of the buying as the soft red crop is advancing. Weekly export inspections came in at 24.39 million bushels which was above the range of estimates for the report and compares with 18.3 million bushels necessary each week to reach the USDA projection. Trend-following fund traders (non-commercial less index funds) held a near record net short position of 96,705 contracts as of April 17th and this helped to support as traders fear that it will not take much in the way of positive news to see more short-covering. Weekly crop conditions and weekly spring wheat planting progress will be released this afternoon. July Oats closed up 2 1/2 at 326 3/4. This was 4 3/4 up from the low and 1 3/4 off the high.
Indian 2012 wheat harvest seen at record 90.23 mln Tons (Source: CME)
India is expected to produce a record 90.23 million tonnes of wheat in 2012, Farm Minister Sharad Pawar said on Monday, releasing the ministry's latest output estimates.
On March 30, India's farm secretary said wheat output could touch a record 90 million tonnes in 2011/12 crop year on favourable weather conditions.
Iran to import 1.7 mln T wheat in 2012/13 (Source: CME)
Iran's wheat import needs are expected to drop 32 percent year on year to 1.7 million tonnes in the 2012/13 marketing year (April/March) thanks to higher carryover stocks from the current season, the UN's Food and Agriculture Organisation said.
Iran has built ample stocks of wheat, the dominant cereal in the country -- accounting for nearly 70 percent of total cereal production -- in the early months of 2012, the FAO said in a country brief on Iran on its website (www.fao.org).
Market Recap: Wheat Futures (Source: CME)
Wheat futures closed 9 1/4 to 12 3/4 cents higher in Chicago, 9 1/4 to 10 cents higher in Kansas City and 1/2 cent lower to 2 1/4 cents higher in Minneapolis. Futures closed in the upper portion of today's range at all three exchanges. Wheat futures were supported by concerns the developing winter wheat crop may have been nipped in some areas by cold overnight temps.
SOFTS-ICE sugar firms, near 11-month low, coffee up
LONDON, April 23 (Reuters) - Raw sugar futures on ICE rose in early trading, bouncing off an 11-month low touched on Friday, while arabica coffee also firmed, consolidating above an 18-month low hit on April 16. Raw sugar futures were higher, bouncing from last week's 11-month low driven by expectations of additional Indian exports and a big global supply surplus of the sweetener.
Philippine sugar output to miss forecast-US attache
April 20 (Reuters) - Following are selected highlights from a report issued by a U.S. Department of Agriculture attache in the Philippines:
"Philippine sugar production in Crop Year 2011/12 (September/August) is projected to reach 2.24 million tonnes, down 7 percent from the initial government forecast of 2.4 million tonnes due to the prolonged wet season. Sugar production is projected to reach 2.4 million tonnes next crop year, as yields recover and sugarcane areas remain unchanged. Consumption of domestic sugar is expected to increase this year as domestic prices return to normal from record highs in December 2010.
China 2012/2013 sugar output seen up 6 pct-attache
April 20 (Reuters) - Following are selected highlights from a report issued by a U.S. Department of Agriculture attache in China:
"In MY 2012/13, total sugar production is forecast at 13.1 million tonnes (raw value), up 6 percent due to increased acreage for both sugar cane and sugar beets. In MY 2011/12, total sugar production is estimated at 12.3 million tonnes (raw value), up 10 percent because of higher acreage and strong yields. MY 2012/13 sugar imports are forecast to remain strong at 2.1 million tonnes (raw value)."
I.Coast happy with cocoa reforms, exporters wary
ABIDJAN, April 20 (Reuters) - Ivory Coast's overhaul of its cocoa sector has gotten a thumbs up from foreign partners offering debt relief, but exporters now abiding by the new system say it has placed them in a minefield of financial risk.
The reform, they say, may leave them with uncovered costs and thousands of tonnes of low-grade cocoa unsuitable for export, while still failing to improve the incomes of hundreds of thousands of struggling farmers.
Thailand Targets Rubber Rally by Buying Up Output, Nattawut Says (Source: Bloomberg)
Thailand, the largest rubber exporter, reaffirmed a plan to drive local prices to 120 baht ($3.87) a kilogram by buying up supplies, while announcing its intention to push them as much as 50 percent higher than that. “We aim to see the price breach 120 baht a kilogram as soon as possible,” Nattawut Saikuar, deputy farm minister, said in an interview yesterday. “In the second half of the year, we will revise the target up to 150 baht and will introduce more measures for the price to climb to 180 baht next year.” Higher prices in Thailand, which accounts for about 33 percent of global supplies, may boost costs for companies such as Bridgestone Corp., Michelin & Cie. and Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co., the top three tire makers. The 120 baht target was announced three months ago by the government, which also has a rice-buying program to try to lift prices of the grain.
Thailand has been in talks with China, the world’s largest consumer, to increase rubber purchases and to set up processing plants in Thailand, Nattawut said. “I’m seriously driving policy to strengthen the rubber industry,” he said. The auctioned price of unsmoked sheet in the Thai city of Songkhla has risen 21 percent this year to 106.39 baht a kilogram yesterday, according to data tracked by Bloomberg. It hasn’t traded above 120 baht since September. On the Tokyo Commodity Exchange, smoked sheet has risen 17 percent to close at 307 yen (117 baht, $3.79) per kilogram yesterday.
OIL-Brent steady under $119; supply worries, China data aid
SINGAPORE, April 23 (Reuters) - Brent held steady under $119 a barrel on Monday, as supply worries stemming from tightening Western sanctions on Iran and stabilising factory activity in China countered lingering concerns over the euro zone debt crisis.
"On the supply side, Iran continues to be a risk which we can't ignore at all," said Ric Spooner, chief market analyst at Australia-based CMC Markets.
Oil Trades Near Two-Day Low on Sign U.S. Supplies Rising (Source: Bloomberg)
Oil traded near the lowest level in two days in New York before a report that may show crude stockpiles at an 11-month high in the U.S., the world’s biggest consumer of the commodity. Futures for June delivery were little changed after falling 0.7 percent yesterday. U.S. stockpiles gained 2.65 million barrels last week to 371.7 million, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey before a government report tomorrow. A release from U.S. strategic reserves is likely to take place after a European Union embargo on Iranian oil starts in July, Citigroup Inc. said. Prices have gained this year on concern that tension with Iran will disrupt supplies. “The market is very evenly divided between the bulls and the bears,” said Jonathan Barratt, chief executive of Barratt’s Bulletin, a commodity markets newsletter in Sydney. “There’s quite a few things that could move it but no one is prepared to lead and I think that’s keeping the prices relatively subdued.”
Crude for June delivery was at $103.15 a barrel, up 4 cents, in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 11:12 a.m. Sydney time. The contract yesterday fell 77 cents to $103.11. Prices are 4.4 percent higher this year. Brent oil for June settlement was at $118.73 a barrel, up 2 cents, on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The European benchmark contract’s front month premium to West Texas Intermediate was at $15.58, from $15.60 yesterday.
Oil traders could face new rules on purchases
GENEVA, April 23 (Reuters) - Oil traders buying from national oil firms could face new disclosure rules within a year as part of an effort led by the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI), the group told Reuters on Monday.
The EITI, which has already implemented similar measures in oil producers Iraq and Norway, said that the rules would apply to all companies trading with EITI signatories.
Libya oil minister says output about 1.5 mln bpd
TRIPOLI, April 23 (Reuters) - Libyan oil production has climbed to about 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) and the North African country hopes to reach pre-conflict levels by mid-year, Oil Minister Abdulrahman Ben Yazza told a news conference on Monday.
"We have reached 85 percent (of pre-conflict levels)," Ben Yazza told the Oil & Gas Libya 2012 conference. "We hope to reach our target by the middle of this year."
China's March crude imports from Iran down 54 pct y/y
BEIJING, April 23 (Reuters) - China's March crude oil imports from Iran fell 54.1 percent from a year earlier to 253,302 barrels per day (bpd), customs data showed on Monday, due to pricing disputes over term contracts, with Beijing boosting shipments from elsewhere to fill the gap.
In the first quarter of this year, China's crude imports from Iran were 346,183 bpd, down 33.2 percent from a year earlier and less 41.8 percent from the fourth quarter of 2011.
S.Korea March Iran crude imports fall 40 pct y/y
SEOUL, April 23 (Reuters) - South Korea's crude imports from Iran fell 40 percent in March from a year ago to 155,000 barrels per day as the country slashed imports in a bid to secure a waiver from sanctions being applied by the United States.
The move by Seoul to reduce reliance on Iranian crude is also in line with steps taken by other major Asian consumers such as Japan.
Coal Seen Rebounding as China Sets Steel Output Record (Source: Bloomberg)
Coking coal prices are set to rebound as early as July from four straight quarterly declines as China and India seek raw material overseas to fire new steel production in the world’s fastest-growing major economies. Contract prices that fell to $206 a metric ton for the quarter ending June 30 may rebound to average $225 a ton this financial year, based on the mean estimate of 10 analysts, steelmakers and mining companies surveyed by Bloomberg. Contracts of coking coal, a key ingredient used to make steel, peaked at $330 in the June quarter last year. China, the largest steel producer, is leading demand growth forecast at almost 10 percent this year. It started about 10 new blast furnaces in the past six months, lifting output to a record in March, according to market researcher Custeel.com. India, the third-biggest steelmaker, is set to boost capacity a third to more than 100 million tons by March in a five-year $1 trillion plan to build roads, bridges and railway networks.
“Rising Indian imports will have a positive impact on coking coal,” said Natalie Robertson, an analyst at ANZ Banking Group Ltd. in Melbourne. “The near-term prices will more closely track development in China.”
Gold Declines as Stronger Dollar Curbs Investor Demand (Source: Bloomberg)
Gold declined to a two-week low as a stronger dollar curbed demand for the metal as an alternative investment. The dollar gained as much as 0.6 percent against a basket of currencies amid concern that the outcome of French presidential elections will disrupt efforts to stem the region’s debt crisis. Euro-area services and manufacturing fell more than estimated in April, while data showed China’s production will contract for a sixth month, according to a Markit Economics and HSBC Holdings Plc. “There is gloom and people want to move into cash,” Frank McGhee, the head dealer at Integrated Brokerage Services LLC in Chicago, said in a telephone interview. “The production numbers out of China have depressed market sentiment.” Gold futures for June delivery fell 0.6 percent to settle at $1,632.60 an ounce at 1:42 p.m. on the Comex in New York. Earlier, prices slipped to $1,623.60, the lowest for a most- active contract since April 5. Prices have dropped 2.4 percent this month.
No comments:
Post a Comment