India sees 2012 monsoon normal, no El Nino threat
NEW DELHI, April 17 (Reuters) - India's monsoon is likely to have average rainfall in 2012 despite fears the El Nino weather pattern may emerge in the second half of the season, the country's top weather official said, pointing to a third straight year without drought.
The June-September monsoon, vital for agricultural output and economic growth, irrigates around 60 percent of farms in India, the world's second-biggest producer of rice, wheat, sugar and cotton. Agriculture accounts for about 15 percent of India's nearly $2 trillion economy, Asia's third biggest.
GRAINS-Corn near 3-week low on U.S. weather, soy dips
SINGAPORE, April 18 (Reuters) - Chicago corn fell for a fourth consecutive session to its lowest in nearly three weeks, weighed down by near-perfect crop weather in the U.S. Midwest which has raised hopes of ample supplies.
"Corn sowing is 17 percent complete but we think that it is bit higher, more like 20 percent because of favourable weather as it has been a lot warmer than normal," said Andrew Woodhouse, an analyst at Advance Trading Australasia.
U.S. corn planting slows as rains hit -USDA
CHICAGO, April 17 (Reuters) - Rainy weather slowed planting of U.S. corn during the weekend but farmers were still well ahead of their typical schedule due to warm soil temperatures, U.S. Agriculture Department data released on Tuesday showed.
Farmers had seeded 17 percent of their corn acreage as of April 15, up from 7 percent a week ago and well ahead of the five-year average of 5 percent, according to the USDA's weekly crop progress and conditions report. A year ago, planting was 5 percent complete.
Spain sees '12 winter grain harvest down 24.6 pct
MADRID, April 17 (Reuters) - Spanish farmers may harvest 24.6 percent less winter grain this year than they did in 2011, the Agriculture Ministry said on Tuesday, which may substantially increase grain imports in the 2012/13 market year.
Even when Spain has a bumper crop, it needs to import at least 10 million tonnes of grains a year, making it a market for producers from Argentina to Kazakhstan.
UK wheat exports running behind last season
LONDON, April 17 (Reuters) - UK wheat exports slowed slightly during February and remain well behind last year's pace despite the shipment of a further cargo to the United States, customs data showed on Tuesday.
Shipments during February totalled 212,701 tonnes, down from 214,562 tonnes in January, the figures showed.
Rail car shortage cuts Kazakh grain export forecast
ASTANA, April 17 (Reuters) - Kazakhstan's grain exports will fall at least 20 percent short of its forecast this season due to a shortage of rail cars, even as Russian port capacity frees up to allow more Kazakh grain to leave the Black Sea, an Agriculture Ministry official said.
The Central Asian state will ship 11 million to 12 million tonnes of grain in the marketing year to June 30, below its previous forecast of 15 million tonnes, said Anna Buts, director of the ministry's land development department, on Tuesday.
Recap: Wheat Futures (Source: CME)
Wheat futures favored a weaker tone throughout the day, although deferred contracts saw periods of firmer trade. Wheat futures closed slightly lower at all three exchanges. Strength in the U.S. dollar index led to widespread selling in the commodity sector. It's somewhat impressive that losses in the nearby wheat contracts were mostly in the range of 3 to 7 cents given double-digit declines in nearby corn and soybean futures.
Wheat Market Recap Report (Source: CME)
July Wheat finished down 4 1/2 at 615 3/4, 7 1/2 off the high and 6 1/2 up from the low. December Wheat closed down 1 1/4 at 654 1/2. This was 7 1/4 up from the low and 7 1/4 off the high. July wheat closed 4 1/2 cents lower on the session but up 6 1/2 cents from the lows. Improving crop conditions, a fast start to the spring wheat plantings and a lack of threatening weather were factors to help pressure the market early in the session. However, a lack of new significant selling interest on the move to the lowest level since December 19th, talk that US wheat is competitive on the world market and talk of the cheap price of wheat relative to corn helped spark the rally to near unchanged on the day into the mid-session. Jordan bought 50,000 tonnes of wheat in a tender for 100,000. The weekly Winter Wheat Conditions report showed that 64% of the crop is rated good/excellent compared to 61% last week and 36% last year. The 10 year average for this time of year is 49%. The highest percent rated good/excellent was 78% in 1993. Ohio slipped 4% to 46% but Kansas jumped to 69% good to excellent from 65% last week and 26% last year. The weekly Spring Wheat Planting report showed that a whopping 37% of the crop is planted compared to 21% last week and 5% last year. The 10 year average for this time of year is 11%. The highest percent complete prior to this year was 27% in 1992. North Dakota is 27% complete from 0% last year and Minnesota is 56% complete from 0% last year. Traders see weekly export sales, for release before the opening, near 550,000 tonnes. July Oats closed down 3/4 at 322 3/4. This was 3/4 up from the low and 2 1/4 off the high.
Could Sept. corn prices fall another $1?
--Gavin Maguire is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own. To get his real-time views on the market, please join the Global Ags Forum--
CHICAGO, April 17 (Reuters) - Near-perfect field conditions coupled with the highest projected U.S. corn planted area total since the 1930s have helped pressure September-delivery corn futures prices steadily lower in recent weeks - from above $6 a bushel in mid-March to below $5.50 currently.
But it's clear from the recent steep build in put options open interest that many traders are expecting prices to head lower still - a lot lower. Indeed, more than 750 million bushels of potential selling interest resides at strike prices roughly $1 below current price levels, with an additional 240 million bushels of selling interest spread out between $4.50 and $5.00 to suggest a barrage of liquidation could well emerge in that contract if crop conditions remain friendly and prices continue to grind lower.
Recap: Corn Futures (Source: CME)
May and July corn futures closed 15 and 13 1/4 cents lower, respectively. The September contract was 1 3/4 cents lower, while new-crop contracts ended a penny lower. Old-crop corn futures posted a low-range close, while new-crop contracts finished mid-range. Bull spread unwinding was again featured in the corn market today. After peaking at $1.12 3/4 on April 3, the May/December corn spread tightened to 73 cents on today's close.
Corn Market Recap for 4/18/2012 (Source: CME)
July Corn finished down 13 1/4 at 594, 15 1/4 off the high and 2 1/4 up from the low. December Corn closed down 1 at 528 3/4. This was 3 1/2 up from the low and 4 1/4 off the high. Corn closed sharply lower on the day for old crop and just slightly lower on the session for new crop and May corn pushed down to the lowest level since January 18th and matched the lows from this date. Funds were noted as active sellers on the session and the July/December spread pushed down to just 65 cent premium July from a premium of $1.07 1/2 on April 3rd. A negative tilt to outside market forces helped to spark the early weakness and then fund traders and spread traders were liquidating old crop corn longs and also old crop/new crop spreads which helped spark heavy selling in the May and July contracts. A bearish weather outlook for planting next week after a little more rain on the weekend kept the market on the defensive. A strong US dollar and weakness in energy and metal markets added to the negative tone. Ethanol production for the week ending April 13th averaged 884,000 barrels per day. This is down 1.3% vs. last week and up 3.3% vs. last year. Corn used in last week's production is estimated at 94.17 million bushels. Corn use needs to average 94.117 million bushels per week to meet this crop year's USDA estimate of 5 billion bushels. Stocks were 21.9 million barrels. This is up 0.9% vs. last week and up 9.3% vs. last year. South Korea bought 65,000 tonnes of optional origin corn. The weekly Corn Planting report showed that 17% of the crop is planted compared to 7% last week and 5% last year. The 10 year average for this time of year is 7%. The highest percent complete prior to this year was 14% in 2004. Illinois was 41% complete as compared with 6% as the 5-year average. Traders see weekly export sales, for release before the opening, near 825,000 tonnes as compared with 975,800 tonnes last week. July Rice finished down 0.08 at 15.74, 0.01 off the high and equal to the low.
U.S. corn planting slows as rains hit -USDA (Source: CME)
Rainy weather slowed planting of U.S. corn during the weekend but farmers were still well ahead of their typical schedule due to warm soil temperatures, U.S. Agriculture Department data released on Tuesday showed.
Farmers had seeded 17 percent of their corn acreage as of April 15, up from 7 percent a week ago and well ahead of the five-year average of 5 percent, according to the USDA's weekly crop progress and conditions report. A year ago, planting was 5 percent complete.
Corn near 3-week low on U.S. weather (Source: CME)
Chicago corn fell for a fourth consecutive session to its lowest in nearly three weeks, weighed down by near-perfect crop weather in the U.S. Midwest which has raised hopes of ample supplies. "Corn sowing is 17 percent complete but we think that it is bit higher, more like 20 percent because of favourable weather as it has been a lot warmer than normal," said Andrew Woodhouse, an analyst at Advance Trading Australasia.
SOFTS-Raw sugar rises early on signs of renewed demand
LONDON, April 18 (Reuters) - Raw sugar futures on ICE were higher early, boosted by signs of revived physical demand a day after hitting a four-month low.
Arabica coffee and cocoa futures on ICE also posted modest gains.
India 2011/12 cotton output seen at 34.7 mln bales-govt
MUMBAI, April 18 (Reuters) - India has marginally raised cotton production estimates to 34.7 million bales of 170 kg each for the current year to September from the earlier forecast of 34.5 million bales, a government statement said on Wednesday.
Exports of cotton from India, the world's second biggest producer, for the current year has also been raised to 11.5 million bales from 8.4 million bales estimated earlier.
India to consider more sugar exports-minister
NEW DELHI, April 18 (Reuters) - India is likely to consider more sugar exports soon due to increased availability in the domestic market, Food Minister K.V. Thomas said on Wednesday.
On Tuesday, a producers' body said the country had produced 24.63 million tonnes of sugar between Oct 1 and April 15, up 13.3 percent from the year ago period.
Indonesia sugar imports seen up slightly-US attache
April 17 (Reuters) - Following are selected highlights from a report issued by a U.S. Department of Agriculture attache in Indonesia:
"Indonesia is estimated to produce a total of 24 million tonnes of sugarcane in marketing year (MY) 2011/12. Despite a decline in sugarcane production, Post estimates that Indonesia will produce 1.83 million tonnes of plantation white sugar in MY 2011/12, an increase of 3.4 percent over MY 2010/11. Raw sugar imports are estimated to increase slightly to 2.86 million tonnes over previous MY 2010/11 of 2.835 million tonnes."
Recap: Cotton Futures (Source: CME)
Cotton futures ended 148 to 250 points higher in the May through October contracts, with the rest of the market ending 63 to 85 points higher. Futures were higher despite negative outside markets and news that India -- the world's second-largest cotton grower -- would export a record amount of cotton this year. India's government said it has approved exports of an additional 1.9 million bales of cotton.
Oil Trades Near One-Week Low in New York on Rising U.S. Supplies (Source: Bloomberg)
Oil traded near the lowest close in more than a week in New York after a government report showed U.S. crude stockpiles rose more than twice as much as forecast. Futures were little changed after declining the most in two weeks yesterday. U.S. supplies gained 3.9 million barrels last week, Energy Department data showed. The median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of analysts was for an increase of 1.8 million barrels. Prices also dropped after Iraq’s deputy prime minister for energy said the Strait of Hormuz is unlikely to close and there is no shortage of oil. Crude for May delivery was at $102.75 a barrel, up 8 cents, in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 9:39 a.m. Sydney time. The contract yesterday slid 1.5 percent to $102.67, the lowest close since April 10. Prices are 4 percent higher this year.
Brent oil for June settlement fell 81 cents, or 0.7 percent, to $117.97 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange yesterday. The European benchmark contract’s front month premium to West Texas Intermediate closed at $14.85. Refineries operated at less than 85 percent of capacity for a second week, according to the Energy Department. Gasoline inventories decreased 3.7 million barrels last week, compared with a forecast for a decline of 1.1 million barrels.
Brent stable at $118 as euro zone concerns ease
SINGAPORE, April 18 (Reuters) - Brent crude futures held steady above $118 on Wednesday as concerns on the euro zone crisis eased after a successful Spanish debt auction and a better growth forecast from the International Monetary Fund.
"Traders' risk appetite improved after the successful debt auction, IMF increasing global growth forecast and good data from Germany," said Natalie Robertson, an analyst at ANZ.
Japan's Tohoku venture shuts 250-MW coal-fired unit
TOKYO, April 18 (Reuters) - Japanese utility Tohoku Electric Power Co said on Wednesday its venture with Tokyo Electric Power , Joban Kyodo Electric Power, shut the 250-megawatt No.7 coal-fired unit at its sole Nakoso power plant at midnight (1500 GMT on Tuesday) after steam leaked from a boiler.
Tohoku said in a statement that it was not concerned about power shortages despite the shutdown.
Euro Coal-Prices dip 50c, June ARA trades at $96/T
LONDON, April 17 (Reuters) - European physical coal prices dipped by around 50 cents on Tuesday due to continued oversupply with only one fresh trade reported, utilities and traders said.
Oil prices nudged up close to $119 a barrel but spot coal prices are much less aligned with the oil market than forward values for 2013 and 2014, they said.
China daily crude steel output at record in early April -CISA
SHANGHAI, April 18 (Reuters) - China's daily crude steel output hit a record 2.031 million tonnes in the first 10 days of April, up 7.4 percent compared with the last 11 days of March, data from the China Iron & Steel Association (CISA) showed on Wednesday.
The figure was higher than the previous record of 2.018 million tonnes per day in the last 10 days of June last year.
Iron Ore-Spot hovers near 6-mth top, China steel output at record high
SINGAPORE, April 18 (Reuters) - Benchmark spot iron ore held near six-month highs although buying appetite in top consumer China remained thin after a recent spike in prices and traders are eyeing a sale tender of Australian cargoes on Wednesday for market direction.
China's daily crude steel output rose to a record 2.03 million tonnes in early April, although an industry group said the high levels of production may not be sustained given the slow growth in demand.
Drops in iron ore output by majors help prop up price
SYDNEY, April 18 (Reuters) - Global miners BHP Billiton , Vale and Rio Tinto all posted sharp drops in quarterly iron ore production due to bad weather, a factor that has helped support iron ore prices at relatively high levels despite signs of a softening market.
The falls in output come as competition heats up in global bulk commodities markets due to demand from China for imported industrial raw materials finally showing signs of waning after years of double-digit growth.
China's steel companies lost 1 bln yuan in Q1-CISA
BEIJING, April 18 (Reuters) - China's steel companies lost about 1 billion yuan ($158.69 million) in the first quarter compared with a profit of 25.8 billion yuan a year ago, an official with the China Iron & Steel Association (CISA) said on Wednesday.
Chinese steelmakers, producing around half of the world's steel output, made a profit of around 2.08 billion yuan in March, CISA vice-chairman Zhang Changfu told reporters at a presser in Beijing.
BHP iron ore, coal mines hit by bad weather, strikes
SYDNEY, April 18 (Reuters) - BHP Billiton on Wednesday posted sharp drops in iron ore and coal production - key revenue earners for the world's biggest mining house - for the first quarter of 2012 due to bad weather and labour unrest.
The declines come as competition heats up in global bulk commodities markets as demand from China for imported industrial raw materials finally shows signs of waning after years of double-digit growth.
Ukraine's Metinvest sees profit falling after 2011 jump
KIEV, April 17 (Reuters) - Ukrainian mining group and steel producer Metinvest said its net profit was likely to drop in 2012 after quadrupling to $1.85 billion in the prior period, hit this year by weaker iron ore prices.
Iron ore prices plummeted in September-October 2011 after rallying for the previous three quarters, helping boost the company's earnings.
"Given the current situation on the market, we think 2012 will be much closer to 2010 than 2011 (in terms of financial results)," Metinvest's Chief Financial Officer Sergiy Novikov told Reuters.
Baltic sea index rises on high panamax activity
April 17 (Reuters) - The Baltic Exchange's main sea freight index, used to track rates for ships carrying dry commodities, climbed to its highest level since January, due to high panamax activity.
The main index, which factors in the average daily earnings of capesize, panamax, supramax and handysize dry bulk transport vessels, rose 14 points or 1.44 percent to 989 points.
"While we continue to expect dry bulk rate volatility, we continue to expect the oversupply of tonnage to keep rates in check through the majority of 2012," Wells Fargo senior analyst Michael Webber said in a note.
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