Reuters Survey :
Malaysia MPOB Mar 2012 Crude Palm Oil
- Exports seen up 5.7% at 1.28 million tonnes from Feb 2012
- Stocks seen down 3.5% at 1.99 million tonnes from Feb 2012
- Output seen up 2% at 1.21 million tonnes from Feb 2012
Soybeans Rise on Signs of Tighter Supplies; Corn Prices Advance (Source: Bloomberg)
Soybeans advanced, rising for the second week, on speculation that smaller South American harvests will spur demand for U.S. inventories. Corn gained. Brazil’s soybean crop may fall to 66 million metric tons, below the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s official forecast of 68.5 million and 75.5 million harvested last year, the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service said in a report yesterday. In the week ending March 29, U.S. exporters sold 1.11 million tons of soybeans, up 88 percent from a week earlier, USDA data show. “The market is still adjusting to shrinking crops in Brazil,” Jim Gerlach, the president of A/C Trading Co. in Fowler, Indiana, said in a telephone interview. “Export sales show a global shift to buying more U.S. soybeans.”
Soybean futures for May delivery rose 1 percent to close at $14.34 a bushel at 1:15 p.m. on the Chicago Board of Trade. The oilseed advanced 2.2 percent this week. Earlier, the price matched the April 3 peak at $14.3425, the highest for a most- active contract since Sept. 7. The commodity has gained 19 percent this year after hot, dry weather cut yields in Brazil and Argentina, the world’s biggest growers after the U.S.
Soybeans Poised for Second Weekly Gain on Brazilian Crop (Source: Bloomberg)
Soybeans rose in Chicago, heading for a second weekly gain, on speculation global harvests may be lower than estimated as crop losses caused by drought worsen in South America, spurring demand for U.S. supplies. Brazil’s soybean crop will probably reach 66 million metric tons, below the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s official 68.5 million-ton forecast, agricultural attaché Jeff Zimmerman said in a report posted yesterday on the agency’s Foreign Agricultural Service website. The South American country is the second-largest producer after the U.S. “There’s still some potential to the upside” for futures, Tetsu Emori, a commodity fund manager at Astmax Co., said by phone from Tokyo today. “We’re still seeing some downgrade in production in South America.” Soybeans for May delivery climbed 0.2 percent to $14.2275 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade by 1:14 p.m. London time. The oilseed is up 1.4 percent for the week. The exchange will be closed tomorrow for Good Friday.
The USDA is scheduled to update production forecasts for soybeans and other crops on April 10.
Old-crop soybean futures led gains today and finished near weekly highs. New-crop futures posted lesser gains today and finished off weekly highs, although solidly higher for the week. While fundamentals are strong and attitudes are bullish, soybean futures could face profit-taking pressure Monday as traders gear up for Tuesday's Supply & Demand Report from USDA. (Source: CME)
Soybean Complex Market Recap (Source: CME)
May Soybeans finished up 14 1/2 at 1434, 1/4 off the high and 19 1/4 up from the low. July Soybeans closed up 14 at 1437 3/4. This was 18 3/4 up from the low and equal to the high. May Soymeal closed up 3.7 at 391.9. This was 4.3 up from the low and 1.2 off the high. May Soybean Oil finished up 0.62 at 56.64, 0.04 off the high and 0.82 up from the low. May soybeans opened higher today and almost managed a fresh upside breakout on the charts. Some bears might suggest that the market has forged a quasi triple top but in the short term the technical condition of the market might take a back seat to the fundamentals. Not surprisingly the soy complex continues to recover nicely from yesterday's sell off, as the classic fundamental outlook is strong in the wake of last week's bullish acreage and grain stocks reports. The market clearly got a boost from better than expected export sales in beans and meal this morning and with weekly export sales for soybeans today coming in at 406,900 metric tonnes for the current marketing year and at 706,000 for the next marketing year the sales today were a big assist to the bull camp. In fact, a total export sale of 1,112,900 is a really strong number that was well above trader expectations and that could make next Tuesday's report even more important. Cumulative soybean sales stand at 91.4% of the USDA forecast for 2011/2012 (current) marketing year versus a 5 year average of 91.8%. Sales of 134,000 metric tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast. Meal sales came in at 174,000 metric tonnes for the current marketing year and 700 for the next marketing year for a total of 174,700, also above expectations. Cumulative meal sales stand at 71.0% of the USDA forecast for current marketing year versus a 5 year average of 69.4%. Sales of 88,000 metric tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast. Oil sales showed net cancellations of 3,500 metric tonnes, all for the current marketing year, which was disappointing against expectations. Cumulative soybean oil sales stand at 61.4% of the USDA forecast for current marketing year versus a 5 year average of 63.1%.
VEGOILS-Palm oil inches up, Europe debt worry weighs
SINGAPORE, April 5 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures edged up as a tighter soybean supply may shift more demand for the tropical oil, although gains were limited as a weak Spanish bond sale raised new fears about the Europe debt crisis.
"The market is trading in a very tight range after a strong rally. On the local front, market players are looking out for April export numbers next week," said a trader with a foreign commodities brokerage in Malaysia.
Brazil 11/12 soybean output down on drought
April 4 (Reuters) - Following are selected highlights from a report issued by a U.S. Department of Agriculture attache in Brazil:
"Post estimates drought-reduced soybean production in 2011/12 at 66 million tonnes on 25 million hectares and exports at 29 million tonnes. The La Nina weather phenomenon brought a significant drought to southern Brazil resulting in an 11 percent reduction in 2011/12 crop from earlier estimates of 75 million tonnes.
Informa cuts Brazil, Argentina soy crop estimates
CHICAGO, April 4 (Reuters) - Private analytical firm Informa Economics lowered its forecasts for the 2011/12 soybean harvests in Brazil and Argentina and projected a year-on-year rise in U.S. 2012/13 winter wheat production, trade sources said on Wednesday.
Informa lowered its forecast of Brazil's soybean crop to 66.5 million tonnes, from its previous estimate of 68 million. The firm cut its Argentine soy crop forecast to 45 million tonnes, from 47.5 million previously.
India's April-March oilmeal exports rise 8 pct
MUMBAI, April 4 (Reuters) - India's oilmeal exports in fiscal 2011/12 rose 8 percent on year to 5.48 million tonnes on strong demand from traditional buyers like Japan, Vietnam and South Korea, a leading trade body said on Wednesday.
Exports in March stood at 575,972 tonnes against 579,907 tonnes a year ago, the Solvent Extractors' Association of India (SEA) said in a statement.
Malaysia has three main policy options to counter the lower Indonesian palm oil export tax structure introduced in September last year, according to UK-based LMC International Ltd chairman Dr James Fry. He said the first option would be for Malaysia to continue its current policy while increasing its crude palm oil (CPO) export quotas slowly. However, it was too late for diplomatic pressure to persuade the Indonesian government to dismantle its array of export incentives for the downstream industry. Another option is to match in full the incentives provided by the Indonesian export tax system by adapting Malaysia current CPO export tax rules to offset the advantages enjoyed by Indonesia exporters via its export tax system. "This reform, however, will not be politically popular since among is implication would be an extra tax of 20% on smallholders revenue in relation to their current selling prices," Fry said. The final option would be to focus on the biggest loser both in tonnage and volume - the local palm oil refiners - from the new Indonesian export tax. "The Government can focus on the policy that will support the margins of local refiners whereby it could apply a graduated export tax on CPO, increasing it to 9% to match Indonesia's gap." Fry thinks that export tax of 4% to 5% will be enough to support the margins of local refiners. (StarBiz)
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