Thursday, February 9, 2012

20120209 1302 Global Commodities Related News.

Corn (Source: CME)
US corn futures end mixed as traders consolidate positions ahead of Thursday's USDA report. Traders unwilling to take risks ahead of the report, to be released at 8:30 a.m. EST, as recent reports have been highly unpredictable. Traders expecting the government will lower South America production and hike U.S. exports, but those shifts may already be priced into the market. Traders say it may take a significant surprise to push the market out of its recent trading range. CBOT corn ends up 1/4c to $6.42 1/2 a bushel, other contracts slightly lower.

Wheat (Source: CME)
US wheat futures ended mostly lower, as traders consolidated positions ahead of Thursday's USDA reports. Traders are not expecting major adjustments in US wheat data, but revised outlooks for corn could move prices, analysts say. Optimism that smaller crops in the Black Sea region could lead to more US export demand continue to underpin prices. However, the potential for a surprise, or for market-moving estimates on corn and soybean supplies, encouraged traders to remain cautious and trim risk exposure, analyst say. CBOT March wheat ended down 1 1/2 cents to $6.60 3/4 per bushel, MGEX wheat closed up 3 1/2 cents to $8.41 1/2, and KCBT wheat ended down 2 cents to $7.10.

Rice (Source: CME)
US rice futures end higher as the market continues to rebound following steep recent losses. After plunging early last week, prices are up 5.2% from a Feb. 1 intraday low, although prices are still well below January levels. Poor demand is weighing on the market, while concerns about a big drop in US planted acreage limits the downside. CBOT rice ends up 10c to $14.20 1/2 per hundredweight.

Corn, wheat steady after fall; soy near 3-month top
SINGAPORE, Feb 8 (Reuters) - Chicago wheat and corn were little changed after dropping in the last session on the back of milder Black Sea weather, as investors squared positions ahead of a key U.S. demand and supply report.
"The soy market is slightly bullish at the moment because of the South American crop worry," said analyst Ker Chung Yang at Phillip Futures in Singapore. "There have been beneficial rains for the crop yields to improve but expectations are that USDA will reduce production estimates."

Thai rice intervention failing on all fronts
NAKHON PATHOM, Thailand, Feb 7 (Reuters) - Thailand's government promised farmers a huge increase in the price of rice when it came to power last August but it is failing on all fronts: export prices have not held up, the state faces huge losses and many farmers have not benefited.
Despite the very real prospect of Thailand losing its title as the world's top rice exporter, the government is determined to push on and is set to extend the intervention scheme into the second crop, which starts in March.

Indonesia sees 2012 unmilled rice output at 68 mln T
Feb 8 (Reuters) - Indonesia expects unmilled rice output of 68 million tonnes this year, below a previous forecast of 72 million tonnes because of wet weather and the fact that disease is hurting crops, the deputy agriculture minister told Reuters on Wednesday.
The lower than expected output could increase the chances of Indonesia moving to import rice this year. The government has said it aimed not to import this year after surprising markets last year with hefty purchases.

Vietnam cuts rice export floor prices -traders
HANOI, Feb 8 (Reuters) - Vietnam has lowered the export price floor for 25 percent broken rice to $420 a tonne from $455 a tonne from Wednesday, in a move to boost exports, traders said.  
Exporters will determine their own prices for the 5 percent and 10 percent broken varieties, based on the price floor for the 25 percent broken grain, traders from different companies said, quoting the Vietnam Food Association's decision.  

Illinois farmers worried by extremely warm winter
CHICAGO, Feb 7 (Reuters) - Illinois, a key farm state in the heart of the Corn Belt, is basking in its sixth warmest winter in 117 years -- good news for residents who have not had to shovel snow but a red flag for some of the state's most productive businesses: farms.  Illinois and neighboring Iowa - also in the midst of a balmy winter - produce about a third of all the corn and soybeans grown in the United States, the world's largest exporter of both crops. Farmers in both states feel more comfortable when there is a substantial snow cover to ensure adequate soil moisture that can nurture crops through the region's hot dry summers.

India 11/12 rice exports seen at 7 mln tonnes-attache
Feb. 7 (Reuters) - Following are selected highlights from a report issued by a U.S. Department of Agriculture attache in India:
"Government rice procurement is currently 16 percent higher than last year's, reflecting a record production of 100 million tonnes in MY 2011/12. Rice exports for MY 2011/12 are expected to reach 7 million tonnes on strong international demand and continuation of the policy allowing the export of non-basmati rice.

US farmers to plant largest corn area in 68 yrs
Feb 7 (Reuters) - U.S. farmers this spring will seed the largest area with corn since World War Two as a mild and dry winter has raised expectations for a quick planting this spring , a Reuters poll of 24 analysts showed, signaling a boost to razor-thin stocks and lower prices in 2012.
The survey showed that farmers were gearing up to plant 94.2 million acres, which could produce a record crop of 13.8 billion bushels based on a trendline yield of 161.4 bushels per acre. It would surpass the previous record of 13.1 billion in 2009.

China boosts Canada canola meal buys over India
Feb 7 (Reuters) - Chinese animal feed company Tongwei Co Ltd will boost its buying of Canadian canola meal by up to C$240 million ($242 million) annually by 2015, after China banned meal from India late last year.
Canada's agriculture minister Gerry Ritz, who announced Tongwei's plans on Tuesday during a visit to China, said its purchases could be worth C$900 million over the next decade.

Ghana cocoa purchases up 5.8 pct on year
LONDON, Feb 7 (Reuters) - Cocoa purchases declared to Ghana's Cocobod reached 681,000 tonnes by Jan. 26 since the start of the 2011/2012 harvest season on Oct. 14 as weekly output stabilises ahead of an expected  decline.
The figures, which covered the first 15 weeks of the 2011/12 main crop, were up 5.8 percent over the 643,652 tonnes registered at the same stage last season, according to the data seen by Reuters.

India allows 1 mln T extra sugar exports-govt source
NEW DELHI, Feb 7 (Reuters) - India has decided to allow unrestricted exports of one million tonnes of sugar, a government source said on Tuesday, in line with industry expectations in the world's second-biggest producer of the sweetener after Brazil.
The biggest consumer of sugar, India had earlier allowed mills to export 1 million tonnes of sugar in the year beginning in October and the fresh exports had been on the cards for some time.

Brazil Seen With Sufficient Ethanol Stocks To Meet Demand (Source: CME)
The key center-south region of Brazil has stocks of ethanol biofuel equivalent to meet three months of demand, which should allow prices at the pump to remain stable until the country's main sugarcane harvest resumes, research firm JOB Economia said. The current situation contrasts with this time in 2011, when ethanol stocks in the region, where nearly 90% of the country's sugarcane is grown, only amounted to two months of demand, JOB said in a note. That wasn't enough to prevent fuel prices from soaring last year in March and April, just before the center-south sugarcane harvest got underway, and contributing to a rise in the inflation rate. JOB said the center-south's total ethanol stocks, as of mid-January, stood at 4.8 billion liters. Sales of ethanol by producers reached 1.52 billion liters in December. Prices for hydrous ethanol, used on its own as a fuel, averaged 2.01 Brazilian reais ($1.17) a liter last week, according to the National Petroleum Agency, or ANP.
Brazil's nationwide average price for gasoline, which contains 20% anhydrous ethanol, stood at BRL2.74 a liter last week. Prices for both products have remained virtually unchanged for the past six months but are up 7.3% in the case of hydrous ethanol and 4.6% in the case of gasoline from year-earlier levels, after a weak 2011 sugarcane harvest drove up ethanol prices.

Euro Coal-Supply drags prices down despite freeze
LONDON, Feb 8 (Reuters) - Blizzards and ice-laden power lines pushed gas and electricity networks close to breaking point on Wednesday but fundamental coal oversupply drove coal prices lower.
"The cold weather is not having any impact on coal because there's too much of it everywhere and a lot of U.S. coal being offered which has to be heavily discounted," one European trader said.

COMMODITIES-Brent hits 6-month high; copper one-week peak
NEW YORK, Feb 8 (Reuters) - Brent crude oil jumped on Wednesday, hitting six-month highs on speculative buying despite weaker U.S. energy demand data, while copper also rose on China's support for its property market, which helps drive demand for the metal.
"The demand numbers for distillates and gasoline continue to be poor, and the rise in inventories in those categories fosters a bearish outlook," said John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital, an energy fund in  New York.

Brent ends at 6-month high on Greek hopes
NEW YORK, Feb 8 (Reuters) - Brent crude oil futures rose for the seventh straight day on Wednesday, closing at the highest in more than six months on hopes that a deal to bail out debt-strapped Greece was near.
"There was the optimism earlier about a deal on Greek debt that had crude up before the EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) data and more spread trading pushing it back up (the spread) to (near) $19," said Chris Dillman, analyst at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut.

US natgas futures end down ahead of Thursday stocks data
NEW YORK, Feb 8 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures finished lower on Wednesday, as traders shrugged off colder weather in the Northeast and Midwest this week and focused instead on a growing inventory surplus that could pressure prices more.
"Tomorrow's (EIA) storage report is hinting at a triple-digit increase in the surplus to last year, and next week we could see another big increase, which is capping the upside in prices," said Eric Bickel, analyst at Summit Energy in Kentucky.

Oil Trades Near One-Week High After U.S. Refiners Boost Crude Processing (Source: Bloomberg)
Oil fluctuated near the highest level in more than a week after a U.S. government report showed refineries processed more crude last week while cutting imports. Brent’s premium to New York prices widened a second day. Futures were little changed after advancing for a second day yesterday. Refineries operated at 83 percent of capacity, up 1 percentage point from the week before, the Energy Department said. Analysts projected there would be a 0.4 percentage point decrease. Gains were capped as Greek Prime Minister Lucas Papademos summoned the country’s lenders for further discussions today after failing to get full agreement on economic measures needed for a second aid package. “Demand, particularly in the U.S., is still there,” said Jonathan Barratt, chief executive of Barratt’s Bulletin, a commodity markets newsletter in Sydney. “We’ve been side-swiped by Europe in terms of its slowdown.”

Iron Ore-Upturn stalls on slow China steel market
SINGAPORE, Feb 8 (Reuters) - Iron ore steadied on Wednesday after a recent spike in spot prices spurred caution among buyers who are worried a slow steel market in top consumer China cannot justify sustained gains in prices of the raw material.
Offers for imported iron ore in China were unchanged from Tuesday, with Australian Pilbara fines quoted at $143-$145 per tonne, Newman fines at $146-$149 and Yandi fines at $131-$133, Chinese consultancy Umetal said.

China may shrink Iran iron imports as sanctions bite
SHANGHAI/BEIJING, Feb 8 (Reuters) - China is likely to reduce the amount of iron ore it buys from Iran from March due to concerns that sanctions may disrupt exports worth over $2 billion a year to the world's largest consumer of the raw material, traders said on Wednesday.
Iran is a political ally of China and one of its biggest crude oil suppliers. Iran was also China's fifth biggest supplier of iron ore in 2011, selling some 17 million tonnes, but traders said they expected purchases to shrink in coming months as the sanctions may disrupt shipments and payments.

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