Soy Oil chart reading : pullback correction upside biased.
Soybeans (Source: CME)
US soybean futures stumble as traders book profits in the face of slowing China demand and increased export competition from freshly harvested South American supplies. May soy ended down 1.7% to $13.68 1/2 a bushel. An aggressive Brazilian soybean harvest coupled with China announcing they will likely be canceling some prior purchases on beliefs it over-booked soybeans earlier in the marketing year weighed on prices, says Jack Scoville, vice president of Price Futures Group. China is the global leader in soy imports. Higher South American output forecasts confirm supply fears are easing for soybeans.
Soybean Meal/Oil (Source: CME)
Soy-product futures end lower, retreating with soybeans. Soyoil futures drew pressure from sharp declines in crude oil futures, while soymeal stumbled on slumping global meal demand, analysts say. CBOT May soymeal drops 2.1% at $349.70/short ton while May soyoil slides 1.6% at 58.82c/pound.
China Likely To Reduce Soybean Imports (Source: CME)
Chinese soybean importers are likely to cancel some shipments of the commodity as processor margins shrink and soymeal prices fall, an official with state grain trader Cofco Ltd. said. China is the global leader in soybean imports, so any signal the Asian nation is cutting imports could pressure global prices. Soybean imports from April to September, the second half of the marketing year for the crop, are expected to fall from a year ago, said Liu Ni, Cofco's manager for oils and oilseeds information, speaking at the China International Edible Oils and Oilseeds Conference. Imports for the first half of the marketing year, which ran from October to March, rose 20% from a year earlier. For the full marketing year, China is expected to import 53 million to 54 million metric tons of soybeans, slightly lower than the 54.5 million to 54.8 million tons previously forecast, Ms. Liu said.
The lower forecast is driven by weakening demand from soybean processors, known as crushers, which process the crop into oil for cooking and meal for animal feed. Ms. Liu said domestic crushers are operating at around 40% of their processing capacity amid tight operating margins and lower meal prices. Crushers lost about 300 yuan ($45.90) a ton from imported soybeans, but the loss is expected to narrow with the deliveries of South American soybeans next month, she said. China is the largest export market for U.S. soybeans, yet recent data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture show sales cooling, with deals for the last week of March coming in 19% below the four-week average. Still, U.S. inventories of soybean remain low, likely preventing a sharp sell-off in soybean futures. In China, most importers have suspended imports of distillers' dried grains -- a type of feed product that competes with soybean meal -- since March, following an anti-dumping probe initiated by Chinese authorities, Ms. Liu said.
China's palm-oil imports will also be slightly lower at 6.2 million tons, compared with 6.4 million-6.5 million tons forecast earlier, she said. Ms. Liu said this is despite domestic rapeseed output likely falling by about 15% to below nine million tons this year. The government now has about 1.5 million tons of rapeseed oil, down sharply after it released about 1.6 million tons of rapeseed oil since October last year, and 2.2 million tons of soyoil in reserves. But commercial edible oil stocks were high at about three million tons due to weak market sentiment because it is the off season and because of the government's price controls, she added.
Palm at 3-week high to track comparative oils
JAKARTA, April 11 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures hit a three-week high, tracking comparative vegetable oils higher, while additional support was provided by expectations of rising crude prices. "Everything is good," said one trader. "The market is going up -- we are catching up with soyoil, which broke new highs last week."
China may cancel soy cargoes due to poor margins-COFCO official
BEIJING, April 11 (Reuters) - China, the world's top soy importer, is likely to cancel or defer some soy cargoes due to poor crushing margins, while soy supplies are expected to be ample in the first half of the year, an official with state-owned trading house COFCO Co Ltd said on Monday.
The company also revised down China's soy imports in 2010/11 to between 53 million and 54 million tonnes, down from an earlier estimate of 54.5 million tonnes, Liu Ni, manager with COFCO's oils and oilseed information department, told a conference in Beijing.
China 2011 rapeseed output likely to fall by 15-20 pct -COFCO official
BEIJING, April 11 (Reuters) - China's 2011 rapeseed output is likely to fall by 15-20 percent, said Liu Ni, manager of oils and oilseed information department at state grain trader COFCO Ltd, a month before the harvest begins.
Liu, in prepared remarks for a speech at a conference in Beijing, did not provide any further details, but farmers have reduced the acreage for rapeseed due to declining returns on the crop.
Argentina says soy harvest shows disparate results
BUENOS AIRES, April 8 (Reuters) - Argentina's 2010/11 soy harvest, which started last month, has shown varying results dictated by the amount of rain that fell in different regions, the government said on Friday in a weekly report.
A drought toward the end of 2010 and limited rains in March are affecting 2010/11 soy, reducing yields in some areas of the South American country, the report said.
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