Corn (Source: CME)
US corn futures end lower, falling to a fresh nine-month low in a move traders say could spur more liquidation. The March contract closed below key support at $5.80, and traders say that technically there's little underlying support. "The psychology is not good at this point," says Jerry Gidel, analyst with North America Risk Management Services. Weak exports have weighed on prices recently. Gains in soybeans and a weaker dollar limit corn's losses. CBOT March corn ends down 1 3/4c to $5.79.
Wheat (Source: CME)
US wheat futures end slightly lower as weak exports and pressure from corn offset a weaker dollar and gains in soybeans. A weaker dollar helped prompt some short-covering in a market that has fallen sharply throughout the fall, but weekly exports were lackluster, reaffirming that ample world supplies are limiting demand for U.S. wheat. Analysts expect that trend to continue. March CBOT wheat ends down 1 1/2c to $5.79 1/4 a bushel, some deferred contracts higher. KCBT March wheat up 3/4c to $6.36 1/4, MGEX March wheat flat at $8.15 3/4.
Rice (Source: CME)
US rice futures eke out small gains, ending higher on a weaker dollar. The small gains came after the market set another fresh 5 1/2-month low. The January contract is down 27% since Sept. 12, as poor export demand and a lack of supply problems around the world weigh. A retreat in the dollar after sharp Wednesday gains boosted some commodities. CBOT Jan. rice ends up 1 1/2c to $13.66 1/2 per hundredweight.
Corn struggles on European debt woes; soy firms
SINGAPORE, Dec 15 (Reuters) - U.S. corn was little changed after sliding to a nine-month low in the last session, while the benchmark wheat languished at contract lows as concerns over Europe's worsening debt crisis continued to plague the global markets.
"Grains and oilseeds are not in a Christmas mood, it's all because of the macro economic situation," said Ker Chung Yang at Phillip Futures in Singapore. "Buyers are seeing some bargain hunting in soybeans near the psychological support level of $11 a bushel."
French analyst sees EU 2012 soft wheat crop up 3 pct
PARIS, Dec 15 (Reuters) - The European Union's soft wheat crop should reach 133.5 million tonnes next year, up 3 percent on 2011, French analyst Strategie Grains said in its first official forecasts for 2012 EU crops released on Thursday.
The analyst had told Reuters last month that it estimated the EU soft wheat crop at 135.8 million tonnes in 2012, up 5 percent on year.
China may hold corn imports until H2 2012 amid record harvest
BEIJING, Dec 15 (Reuters) - A record domestic harvest and easing food inflation show little sign that China, the world's second-largest corn consumer, will resume imports from global markets until maybe the second half of next year, analysts said.
Sinograin, which manages state reserves, has shifted to stockpile domestic crops after it purchased 3-4 million tonnes of U.S. corn this year to help refill state reserves and cool food inflation.
Vietnam may cut 2012 rice exports to 6.5 mln T-report
HANOI, Dec 15 (Reuters) - Vietnam may cut its 2012 rice exports to 6.5 million tonnes after shipping a record volume of 7.2 million tonnes this year, and prices could fall on ample supply, a state-run newspaper quoted an Agriculture Ministry official on Thursday as saying.
Thanks to high value of the rice sales in 2011, farmers have been expanding the area of low-quality varieties, Nguyen Tri Ngoc, head of the ministry's Crops Department was quoted by the Vietnam Economic Times newspaper as saying.
Dry conditions to worsen in Argentina's crop belt
Dec 14 (Reuters) - Dry conditions in parts of east-central Argentina are likely to worsen and expand in the next week, potentially threatening the region's corn and soybean crops, a U.S. agricultural meteorologist said on Wednesday.
Parts of Brazil's crop belt have also been dry, although moisture expected in the next week should ease concerns.
Italy 9-mth soft wheat, maize imports up-Anacer
MILAN, Dec 14 (Reuters) - Imports of soft wheat into Italy, a major grain buyer in Europe, jumped 13.4 percent year on year and maize imports surged 38.3 percent in the first nine months of 2011, Italian cereals body Anacer said on Wednesday.
Soft wheat imports rose to 4,027,945 tonnes in the January-September period from 3,552,051 tonnes in the same period of 2010. Maize imports rose to 1,918,962 tonnes from 1,387,358, Anacer said in a statement.
Tightness In Global Grains Markets To Continue - IGC (Source: CME)
General tightness in global grains and oilseeds markets is set to continue, the International Grains Council said, with a further decline forecast for grain exporters' carryovers in 2011-12. However, the IGC said recent steep falls in export prices reflect ample immediate market supplies, especially for wheat after large Black Sea crops and big harvests in the southern hemisphere. The situation for corn remains tighter, the IGC said, especially after the disappointing outcome of the U.S. harvest. This is despite a considerable slowdown in corn usage for biofuels and the ready availability of feed wheat as a substitute. The five-year prospects for wheat appear relatively comfortable, the IGC said, even assuming continued high feed use. However, corn's carryover stocks are likely to decline further, despite the maturing of the ethanol sector in the U.S.
The IGC added that global soybean supplies will remain delicately balanced following a reduced U.S. crop and continued heavy demand in Asia, with much depending on the outcome of upcoming harvests in Argentina and Brazil.
Russia 2011 Grain Output Revised +2M Tons To 92M Tons-SovEcon (Source: CME)
Russian agricultural analysis body SovEcon has revised upwards its projections for the country's grains output this year to 92 million metric tons, 2 million tons more than the previous forecast, SovEcon said. Andrey Sizov Sr., senior economist and chief executive of SovEcon, said it also revised upwards its expectations for 2011 wheat production to 56.5 million tons, an increase of 1 million tons on the previous estimate. Grain production in the Commonwealth of Independent States has exceeded expectations this year, recovering sharply from drought-reduced output last year. Cheaper wheat from the Black Sea region, as a result of ample supplies, is giving European grain a run for its money and is likely to limit any price gains in Western Europe's futures market during the 2011-12 crop year, analysts and traders said.
JPMorgan warned Wednesday that Russia could remain a major exporter of wheat in 2012, barring significant capacity constraints, as production in the Black Sea region rebounded significantly from drought-hit 2010 levels. Higher production as a result of ideal harvesting conditions, weak export competition and strong demand from North Africa and Western Asia has meant exports of Russian grain have soared during the first three months of the 2011-12 crop year, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Analysts now predict that Russia, the world's second-largest exporter of wheat, could export 19 million tons this year, up from 12 million tons last year. Russia could harvest between 95 million and 100 million tons of grain next year, similar to levels during 2008, one of the country's largest harvest on record, Sizov said earlier this month.
The healthy projection forecast is a result of an increase in acreage and improved winter planting conditions," Sizov said.
EU Wheat Surplus Rises On Export Competition - Strategie Grains (Source: CME)
The European Union's wheat surplus increased over the last month because of export competition from Australia and Argentina, Strategie Grains said, adding this could pull down prices across the bloc in the short-term. The influential analyst said it estimates EU wheat exports to third-party countries were down by 0.7 million tons this month, to 14.9 million tons, as supply from the southern hemisphere arrived on the market and stirred competition. As a result, Strategie Grains said EU wheat must recapture some export demand on the world market, with countries such as the UK and Romania needing to target other suppliers within the bloc, such as France. This could lead to a short-term price fall in these countries, the analyst said, which in turn could pull down wheat prices across the EU because of the increased competition.
However, Strategie Grains said French milling wheat prices could increase slightly in the long-term due to Russia's reduced presence on the world market, which would restrict the downside potential for wheat from other origins. EU wheat prices have been pressured by fierce competition from the Black Sea region in recent months after production rebounded significantly from drought-hit 2010 levels. But JPMorgan said Wednesday it thought that Russia could remain a major exporter of wheat in 2012, barring significant capacity constraints. Strategie Grains added that price movements at the end of this crop year will be more dependent on the outlook for the following season, with 2012-13 shaping up to be fairly comfortable at a global level and slightly more so in the EU.
China 2012 cotton growing area forecast to decline 10.5 pct -Beijing Cotlook Survey
BEIJING, Dec 15 (Reuters) - China's cotton planting area is projected to decline 10.5 percent in 2012 from this year due to falling cotton prices, a subsidiary of U.K.-based Cotlook Ltd. said in its Beijing Cotton Outlook survey published on Thursday.
The country's cotton area next year is forecast to be 4.81 million hectares, or 72.16 million mu, according to the Beijing Cotton Outlook's survey, which is based on 13 major cotton producing areas.
Colombia coffee output falls 13.7 pct in Nov -Growers
BOGOTA, Dec 14 (Reuters) - Colombia's coffee output fell for the eighth straight month in November, dropping 13.7 percent from a year ago due to heavy rains that limited flowering, the coffee growers federation said on Wednesday.
The world's third biggest exporter after Brazil and Vietnam has seen output drop since 2009 and struggled to regain historical production levels because of bad weather and a renovation program to replace aging trees.
S.Korea Nov LNG imports drop 34.5 pct y/y after stock build
SEOUL, Dec 15 (Reuters) - South Korea's imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) dropped 34.5 percent in November from a year ago, as the world's second-largest buyer reduced volumes after building winter inventories in September and October, customs data showed on Thursday.
South Korea imported 2.32 million tonnes in November, down from 3.54 million tonnes a year earlier, Korea Customs Service data showed.
Oil Declines a Third Day in New York on Signs Industrial Output Shrinking (Source: Bloomberg)
Oil headed for the biggest weekly decline since September in New York as investors speculated that fuel demand may falter amid shrinking industrial production in the U.S., Europe and China. Futures fell a third day after figures from the Federal Reserve yesterday showed output at factories, mines and utilities in the U.S. slid 0.2 percent in November, the first decrease since April. Chinese factory production may decline for a second month in December, preliminary results from a Markit Economics survey indicated. Euro area manufacturers may face a fifth straight month of contraction, a separate report showed. Crude for January delivery dropped as much as 48 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $93.39 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange and was at $93.59 at 10:51 a.m. Sydney time. The contract yesterday slid 1.1 percent to $93.87, the lowest close since Nov. 2.
Gold Market Rout Leaves Traders Least Bullish in Four Months: Commodities (Source: Bloomberg)
Gold’s biggest rout in three months means traders are the least bullish since July and Dennis Gartman, the economist who sold the last of his metal on the day the slump began, warned of further declines. Ten of 21 surveyed by Bloomberg expect the metal to gain next week, the lowest proportion since July 29. Three were neutral. While bullion’s slide of as much as 9 percent this week took its drop from the record $1,923.70 an ounce reached in September to almost 20 percent, the common definition of a bear market, investors are still holding the most metal ever in exchange-traded products, a wager now valued at $119.2 billion.
Commodities retreated the most in almost three months and more than $640 billion was wiped off the value of global equities on Dec. 14 after the Federal Reserve refrained from taking new stimulus measures. That combined with signs of increased funding stress in Europe helped drive the dollar to the highest since January against the euro. Gold typically moves in the opposite direction to the U.S. currency.
Record Big Ship Deliveries to Hit Asia Lines as Europeans Team Up: Freight (Source: Bloomberg)
Container lines are losing money on Asia-Europe routes after slashing rates more than 50 percent this year because of a price war and excess capacity. In 2012, 42 of the biggest ships ever built will join the competition. The record number of ships able to hold more than 13,000 containers entering service will be almost double this year’s tally of 22, according to Alphaliner and Clarkson Plc data. They will boost the total fleet to about 100. Ships this big are only used on Asia-Europe routes as they are too large for U.S. ports. Mediterranean Shipping Co. and its new partner, Marseilles- based CMA CGM SA, will lead the surge, receiving 21 ships and boosting their combined fleet to 49. Asian lines will have 26 such-sized vessels by the end of next year, leaving them reliant on smaller, less fuel-efficient ships to compete with the alliance and Copenhagen-based A.P. Moeller-Maersk A/S, which together account for about half of Asia-North Europe capacity.
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